“I am bad dreams made real”
Courtesy Soccer Holdings LLC
Match Haiku
Two goals don’t suffice
To weather the coming wave.
When will Racing learn?
“I am bad dreams made real”
“Voice of the Father” - Drawn to the Deep End, 1997
Racing couldn’t hold a two-goal lead and quite frankly, I wasn’t the least bit shocked. That isn’t meant as an indictment of Racing necessarily, just the sober reality of what happens when Racing plays good teams. Racing continues to struggle to counter momentum when opponents outplay them in the second half of matches. This has been the case pretty much since the inception of the team. Against good teams, no lead is safe, because Racing has never been able to take the air out of the ball through possession or an airtight defense. You pretty much have to have one or the other when you build leads against good teams. Racing had its false dawn against the NWSL also-rans, but that’s all it was.
Those of you who have stuck with me over the years know I prefer a possession-oriented philosophy. The ability to create close-control possession both tactically and through roster construction is a tough thing to do and even tougher to do on a budget. High possession doesn’t always win, but it creates good conditions. San Diego out possessed Racing 72% to 28%. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily telling. What is telling is the number of touches in the opponent’s box and total shots, where Racing lost those battles 43 to 13 and 32 to 13 respectively. There are some who will say, and it is anecdotally true, that you can win matches on the wrong side of those numbers. Racing was winning that battle at halftime. However, simple math will tell you that in the long run you are better off with good possession that creates more opportunities rather than having to rely on being clinical on the fewer opportunities created through a more aggressive style. Obviously, you want your team to be able to do both. Racing only has one of those options in its locker when it plays teams in the top half of the table. They’ll win the odd match here and there, but they will always lose more than they win.
Racing did play a really good first 25 minutes. They did the things they needed to do to give themselves a shot. They made a counterattack pay off on a good pass from Fischer to Milliet and later scored on a set piece opportunity. Sears had a shot on target before the two goals, and that was it for the match for shots on target. They were clinical on two out of three chances that had an xG of greater than .20. The Wave only had one of those (Byars’ equalizer) but since they had ten shots on target compared to Racing’s three, they didn’t have to be nearly as clinical.
Racing lost a war of attrition, and they lose more than their fair share of those. Leads are built with your Starting XI, games won with your subs and silverware with your roster. Racing’s substitutes this season have been more productive than in previous seasons, but the back end of their roster still doesn’t compare to the league’s best. In this match specifically, I think they lost because they couldn’t swing the momentum. You can only defend for so long unless you both love to defend and are good at it. Racing doesn’t mind defending but there is very little evidence that they are good at it.
Post Match Moment of the Match
When I posed some numbers to Bev after the match, she surprised me by asking me to split the numbers into each half. It was insightful on her part. The first half numbers on possession and number of shots by San Diego where almost identical to the numbers in the second half. In fact, the numbers were eerily similar for both teams except for cumulative XG in both halves, meaning that the quality of chances were better for Racing in the first half and better for the Wave in the second half. (I am fine with xG as an indicator of the quality of the chance, my historical disdain for cumulative xG is as a reliable predictor/explainer of the scoreline). The funny thing about numbers is that we will each take away different messages. I don’t know for sure what Bev would say. What I took away from the quick glance at the 1st/2nd half splits is that the styles were reflected in the numbers.
Milliet and Bloomer were also made available for media after the match. They both spoke about the early second half goal being the turning point. They also said that San Diego made a tactical change that they struggled to adjust to quickly enough. Racing has been good in recent matches at coming out of the halftime break to win the first 15-minute tactical battle. They clearly lost it this time and even though they were able to stem the tide briefly for a stretch after the first Wave goal, San Diego always looked like equalizing and once they did, always looked like going ahead.
The Taylor Flint Honorary Yellow Card of the Match
Racing made up for their recent well-behaved stretch by picking up three yellow cards in this match.
58th Minute: Kayla Fischer - Foul - Tactical Foul
59th Minute: Quincy McMahon - Foul - Tactical Foul
86th Minute: Macy Hodge - Foul - Tactical Foul
Hodge seemed puzzled by hers and it did look soft. The other two were clear and earned. I think Fischer’s recent good behavior means that this one doesn’t yet cost her a suspension.
Madchester Song to Make You Feel Indifferent
This is a one-off single that the band released while they were presumably supposed to be off working on material for the follow up to their debut album. It's honestly a pretty lazy song. It took them 5 and a half years to produce the follow up to their classic debut and the result frankly sucked.
“Time devours you”
It sounds insane, right, but don’t you trust Racing more when they go into halftime with the score 0-0 against a good team instead of with a lead? If Racing had missed its early chances and the halftime score was 0-0, does San Diego make the same adjustments? It’s stupid but I do think about it.
The funny thing about this match is that I don’t think any of the performances by Racing’s players were particularly poor. However, the collective result was still pretty bad. What do you do with information like that? Do you penalize or punish a player for playing in the only system that has a chance of working when that system is torn apart by a better team? Two of the three goals that beat Racing were low chance efforts that happened to be struck well. Byars’ first was an excellent strike as was Dali’s winner. Racing came out flat in the second half and should have put more pressure on Byars. The Dali goal was much the same in that Racing didn’t close down the space around her quickly enough. It’s fine margins. We’ve heard it before. At some point don’t we just have to come to the conclusion that Racing’s on-ball defending isn’t good enough. There definitely isn’t enough defensive team speed to cover lapses in concentration.
Racing’s mid-season charge towards relevance is likely over and done with. At this point it serves nobody to have Arin Wright play for 90 minutes in the last 8 matches. Phillipus hasn’t seen match time for a while, so Racing needs to figure out what they have in her. Any roster building for 2027 must start with the defense in mind, even if it means rebuilding the midfield instead of focusing purely on the nominal defenders. If Racing is going to concede two goals per match on average (which is worst in the league) I’d rather them concede them with players on the pitch who have the chance to get better. Jean is serviceable at best at the moment but could still improve. Wright is likely done being an elite defender. There is no shame in it, but she can’t be a primary part of the plans next season if Racing is going to improve its defense in the long term. I think she still has a year or two left in the league, but Racing needs someone who can start a turnaround, not someone whose best days are behind her.
