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2024 Season Wrap-up
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Sometimes it is hard to remember why you do certain things. Oftentimes, the reason you start something is different from the reason you continue it. I started this blog simply because I thought Racing needed a site specifically dedicated to covering the team. Now, I mostly keep it up to date out of habit, to record my thoughts and get them out of my head, and to give Jeff Greer or Jonathan Lintner an extra chore during the day to make sure that I am behaving myself. The other thing that I can’t quite remember the reasoning behind is the decision to split my coverage into content that I thought was best suited for this site, and content that was suited for a broader audience on The State of Louisville. At first that decision seemed to be crystal clear, and I often saved the pieces of which I was most fond for that site. Now, I really just post my quarterly reviews there. Again, this is simply out of habit, and I don’t have any real intent on changing this unless the guys over there kick me out. This rather long preface is simply here to say that I wrote my 4th quarter piece first, but that it will likely be published after this.
That means that this piece serves as somewhat of a catch-all piece for the thoughts that enter my head during the season, but don’t really have a place in the context of a match or are more appropriate for after the season is complete. I will likely have forgotten some of the things I wanted to talk about, but the important ones have surely made their way here. There are all kinds of ways to handle a wrap-up piece, but I think the following format will prompt me to remember most of the things I want to talk about.
If Racing are serious about winning, there are things that need to be addressed. I wrote this for my forthcoming State of Louisville piece, but I want to dive deeper here: “I believe that Racing's issues are multiple and deep-seated. In simple terms Racing
Plays in a small market
For an ownership conglomeration without truly deep pockets
Who are hesitant to take on a financially disastrous loss that includes
Improving the team's staff
In order to find and pay the right players
To play in a system that is unique enough to cause their opponents problems”
Let’s break down that run-on sentence into each of its parts.
Before I get to that, let me just say that I fully expect to hit some nerves and say things people don’t agree with or flat out hate in this piece. Actually, I will probably write some things that I will ultimately disagree with myself as time passes. Try not to take it personally.
Racing plays in a small market
This is an environmental issue/problem. Unless you want the team to move, this specific challenge has to be dealt with creatively. I always got the sense, and maybe I got it incorrectly due to my own biases, that the organization has always thought that if they could get every USWNT fan in the Louisville area to attend Racing matches, that attendance would be a breeze. Yes, the USWNT “sold out” Lynn Family Stadium, but there is “sold out” and sold out. It sold out without breaking the Lynn attendance record. That’s a neat trick. The attendance is nothing to sneeze at, and Louisville represented itself quite well. I don’t fault the effort or the result of getting a USWNT match here. However, we now kind of know the upper limit on attendance. 13,000 is likely the absolute maximum you can expect if Racing go undefeated for 5 straight years. Here in the real world, the practical limit is about 8,000 (barring an air show or some other event that divides fan attention). My proposal is that the Racing matches at Lynn should be configured to hold 7,000 to 8,000 fans by strategically closing large sections of the stadium. I had this idea before the San Diego match, and now we know it is somewhat feasible. Thing that will make some people mad #1: I think the Estopinal End should be closed for Racing matches as part of a 7,000 to 8,000 seating configuration. The Estopinal End works for Lou City. It doesn’t for Racing. The Lavender Legion (of which I am a paying member and former board member) has been given 4 years to try to create an atmosphere. It has not worked. What has worked in more recent matches are simple chants stared by sections of the crowd with enough people to start them. Five elementary school aged children got a chant started in Section 125 with only 2100 or so people in attendance on Sunday. Their lack of rhythm made me pine for the days of mandatory music education in the public school system, but they got it going. Organic is always going to work better than manufactured. People need to be in close confines to create an environment. Let’s close some sections and get people closer together.
What I hope this will achieve is thing that will make some people mad #2: Make Lynn Family Stadium “Hell on Earth” for Racing’s opponents. The good people of section 107 have been trying very hard (myself included) to make Lynn into Hell on Earth for officials for a few seasons now. I frequently embarrass my wife with some of the things I say to the officials (all of the are well earned and clean by the way). However, opponents continue to come into the stadium way too relaxed. I can’t prevent a section of the fanbase from fawning over the opposition players, especially the international-level ones, nor would I want to. I just want to harden the environment to a degree that the opponents don’t feel like they have just been invited to Sunday tea.
I expect the fans to be polite, to a degree and respectful and I would never want any real abuse hurled at opposing players or coaches, but there is a difference between hospitality and reverence. I would prefer mute disdain with the goal of eventually heading toward open hostility (good natured of course). I believe that people know the difference between booing an opponent and attacking them verbally. I wlll get to the second part of this in section 6.
For an ownership conglomeration without truly deep pockets
Racing is in a financial mismatch against virtually every other team in the league. The valuation of the franchise might be greatly higher than the investment, but that is only beneficially to ownership on the day they sell it. I believe that every team in this league operates at a loss and with the new salary cap developments, Racing’s wage bill is only going to become a larger burden on the ownership. I simultaneously have some degree and very little sympathy for ownership. On the one hand, you can’t be continually dumping stupid money into an investment that is years away from paying off (hopefully) but you are also rather arrogant to think that you get to own a top tier sports franchise without being willing to invest stupid money into it. Thing that will make some people mad #3: The current ownership group can’t be successful other than to cash out. Of course, cashing out puts the team at risk of moving. One of the most irritating things about fans is their bravado when it comes to spending ownership’s money. I don’t think there is a single person in the current ownership group wealthy enough to own an NWSL franchise by themselves. In fact, that person might not exist in the city of Louisville or the state of Kentucky. Fans can come up with all of the lists of potential rich owners they want to, but unless you want to convince some sporting uber conglomerate to purchase the club as is, a single owner is likely to move the team.
Who are hesitant to take on a financially disastrous loss
The team needs monetary infusions that are simply not going to give you a return on investment. I would love to see Racing’s books and the books of other NWSL teams and I am sure that it would be a fascinating insight into their operations. However, I seriously doubt that any team turns a profit. Which leads me to thing that will make some people mad #4: Women’s sports have to become more than just an investment vehicle for rich narcissists at some point, or it risks becoming a charity. This is a tough one. I think that many men’s sports franchises and clubs operate at a loss on paper, and it is extremely unfair to expect women’s sports to be profitable on a short time frame. Then again, if you can’t afford a loss should you be a sports owner? Honestly, the only way most professional sports teams seem to be profitable today is either when they are inherited through generational wealth or sold to the next rich person. There is no real solution to Louisville’s problem here other than a drastic increase in attendance which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. That doesn’t mean that is still doesn’t affect their day-to-day operations. Long story short: if you want the current ownership to invest more, you are going to have to give them a really good reason. We all need to work together to increase attendance (and/or the value of the tickets) by (almost) any means necessary.
Improve the team's staff
Racing is lacking in technical staff. I frankly don’t care what other teams have, but Racing needs some real help here. I have always felt that they have cheapened out on hiring staff. That doesn’t mean that they don’t have good coaches, but I do think it means that there is a limit for what the organization is willing to pay for coaching excellence. That mentality has to chance. The head coaches in this league are leaps and bounds above what they were even two seasons ago. The league cleaned house to some degree and replaced the bad actors with at least better coaches and hopefully better people. Thing that will make some people mad #5: I feel like Racing made the wrong head coaching decision at almost every turn. Bev may turn out to be great, but she isn’t there yet. I am unsure of who else was being considered, but Racing ultimately made the safe choice. It cost them a year of progress. They can’t afford another lost year.
Find and pay the right players
On this one Racing has no choice but to change their way of thinking. They won’t have the draft to get players like DeMelo and Sears anymore. This will somewhat force Racing to pick players that fit the system they want to play. Whether that is the right system is up for debate, and I will make my case below. I spend some time in my 4th quarter review for the State of Louisville on this topic, so I won’t rehash things here.
If you don’t want to read that piece, I will give you the brief version. The talent gap in the league is increasing at the top of the table, and what was good enough last season, is not good enough this season and definitely won’t be good enough next season. Racing needs to be very, very careful on the international players that they sign, especially if most of the game film on the player is in a league that is not up to par with the NWSL (or NCAA for rookies). Thing that will make some people mad #6: fans need to stop falling in love with the players. This level of devotion is only going to hurt the fans. Racing has proven itself to be brutally ruthless recently, and I don’t expect that to change. Do a job or find another team. The time for sentiment is over if you want this franchise to survive in this city. The players should be treated respectfully, but nobody gets a free pass.
Play in a system that is unique enough to cause their opponents problems
Where the real “Hell on Earth” needs to take place is on the pitch. Louisville (unless something changes) is always going to have a financial challenge compared to other teams in the league. That is why I believe that thing that will make some people mad #7 has to be a change in style that makes the opponents dread playing Racing. I would like to see a style where every player is Kayla Fischer-level aggressive. That might lead to multiple suspensions, but something has to change. Louisville hasn’t succeeded by attempting to play attractive football, so don’t attempt to play it. Find a style that makes the game an absolute nightmare on the other team. This doesn’t have to be completely ugly or use the “dark arts” 100% of the time, but the dark arts shouldn’t be ignored. Everyone wants to play beautiful football now. Racing needs to find a way to make them pay for it. I refuse to believe that there aren’t some coaches out there plotting against the current wave of play-out-from-the-back, possession football. Find one and bring them to Louisville to help implement something unique. The harsh truth is that Racing Louisville can’t stand against the current cream of the crop in this league playing a similar style with lesser players. They need to win the chess matches.
And alternatively, what if Racing isn’t all that serious about winning?
Be okay with 9th place (or worse). It is sustainable and not the end of the world. I am not a fan with infinite patience, but I can't picture myself ever stopping supporting Racing. There is still a whole bunch of fun to be had at the matches. They could catch lightning in a bottle every once in a while without many changes. Not everyone gets to be a fan of a consistent winner and sometimes you end up supporting a perennial doormat. It's fine. The owners are perfectly within their rights to make the minimum required investment and watch the value of the franchise continue to grow. I just think we need to be honest about what the ambitions of this club are going to be. This offseason will be key. If the club is going to be unserious about winning, I am perfectly happy to cover the club in an (even more) unserious manner. I mean, I let a pirate preview a match this season and Racing are undefeated when that happens. Maybe the pirate should take over. And seriously, what’s the big deal if Racing is never a winner in Louisville. For those of you that follow me closely you know that I love to quote The Wire, especially the line “Deserve got nuttin’ to do with it.” What that essentially means to me in this instance is that nobody is promised anything, and you shouldn't expect any great reward past the agreed upon terms. Racing agrees to play football and we agree to watch it. Past that, you get what you get (and don't throw a fit…couldn't resist).
The Racing players are always able to produce a smile after the match, win, lose or draw and they make the fans proud either way. That might just be enough to sustain things for a few more years.
Racing 1 Wave 3 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy NWSL LLC
The season is mercifully over and if I am being honest, this season has been the most disappointing (on the pitch) so far in Racing’s brief history. Nothing quite clicked for this group, and the season was poor enough that no single aspect of the team deserves all of the blame.
More in-depth analysis of the season is coming (if I can stomach writing it) but it's hard to read too much into this match. Racing has been prone to bad starts, especially recently so it wasn't surprising that it happened again. However, it was a bizarre set of circumstances that led to Sunday's match so let's just leave it at that.
The most interesting moment of the match was the Beckie offside call. It was obviously a ball call. The linesperson should have waited for the phase of play to end before raising her flag, but the center official didn't have to blow the play dead. For once, I have a tremendous amount of sympathy for the official in this situation. I am fairly certain that when you train to be a line judge you get drilled into your head “stay in line with the offside line” or some version of that. Beckie clearly was in an offside position, but since a Wave Player made a deliberate action to play the ball backwards, her offside position should have been irrelevant. I think the official just saw that Beckie was clearly offside and for a split second didn’t consider the other criteria for an offside offense and raised her flag. The offside but not illegally offside condition specifically like this one is somewhat rare, but something I see a few times and season. My guess is that the linesperson simply lost track of the ball in the phase of play and made an incorrect assumption. Honestly, I did as well, as I too was watching Beckie and not the ball. It was such a bone-headed play by the Wave player that I think it took everyone by surprise.
The officials will surely rewatch the match and kick themselves for missing that call. My hope is that the linesperson carries that mistake with her so that she doesn't make it again. I still remember a bad call that I made in a match refereeing a church league for 7-year-olds. I failed to play an advantage where a player scored, but I had blown the play dead. It was a beginner’s league and technically we didn't even keep score. Neither the players, coaches, nor parents complained. I am probably the only one that even knew that I screwed up. I am definitely the only person that still thinks about it. However, I carried that mistake with me every time I officiated a match after that, and I think it made me a better one in my brief career. I would like to believe that officials hold themselves accountable. Honestly, I think they do. What I wish for is that someday there will be more transparency so that we know what the consequences are when officials make mistakes. Their frequent silence comes off as arrogance and being above the consequences. Kudos to Bekki Morgan for getting us an answer on this one because there are too many times where we get none.
When Sav McCaskill came into the match I turned to my wife and said, “well, she is definitely scoring.” She isn't as beloved as some ex-Racing players, but I for one hate when Racing plays against her.
In case I forget to mention it later, one of the most frustrating things to me during this season was the number of times I watched Racing’s opponents play admirable football and the virtually zero times I could say the same about Racing. Sometimes the football was effective, but the success seemed labored. I am all for winning ugly, but the operative word in that phrase is “winning”. I have less tolerance for boring football when the results aren't there. To my eyes, Racing played boring football this season. I will be the first to admit that personal preference will vary and maybe you think differently and enjoyed the football. My least favorite frequent occurrence was to watch Racing try to play out of the back very deliberately. There were too few line-splitting passes during these build-ups. Again, maybe you like that and if you do there is no judgment here. Just because I could never quite figure out what Racing was trying to do doesn't mean it wasn't effective from a coaching point of view. All that I can say is that I didn't find it particularly entertaining. I am perfectly willing to sacrifice some entertainment for results. Maybe year two of BevBall will yield some better ones.
Racing 1 Wave 3 Player Ratings
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Over 2000 fans showed up to help Racing unexpectedly close out the season at home. Unfortunately, nothing was on the line and the effort and result was all too familiar.
Lund-6: Not to blame on any of the goals and kept it from being any more lopsided.
Petersen-5: Racing signed her to be a semi-replacement for Pickett but in her limited appearances she has been a poor facsimile.
Erceg-5: San Diego found too much joy in Racing’s box for her to rate any higher.
Jean-5: Not the answer at RCB
Milliet-6: As much as I would love her to spend her career here, I would hate to see her never play regularly on a semi-decent team.
Flint-5: Put in a perfunctory 45.
DiGrande-5: If she plays 1700 minutes for Racing next season, something has gone horribly wrong. She just doesn't produce enough to warrant those minutes.
Fischer-6: Decent, but has to figure out a way to cut out the yellow cards.
Beckie-5: Lost every single one of her ground duels.
Sears-6: The attacking answer can't be have Emma run 80 yards and pray.
Balcer-7: Found a way to score, but can’t be the primary option next season.
Racing v Wave Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
There was no real point of writing anything about this match until we knew if Racing had anything to play for. Now we know that there isn't really anything to play for and that Racing will finish in 9th place for the 4th season in a row.
It will be interesting to see what kind of crowd turns up for the San Diego match. I don't expect attendance to be announced, but I should be able to track it down afterwards.
Racing can not really have any complaints about missing out on the playoffs because Bay won 6 points off them. The home match was the killer loss. That occurred in June. I will never accept the mentality of “peaking at the right time” even if I completely understand it. If Orlando doesn't win the Championship this season, people will accuse them of peaking too soon. That is frankly nonsense. The Shield continues to be the real accomplishment in this league because the schedule is balanced (or mostly balanced if you can keep your field in playable condition). You always take your chances with playoffs. Losing in them should never diminish a good season.
I am ready for this season to be over, but I will try to put a bow on it on this site and on The State of Louisville website. I will go into this in more detail but someone needs to take the blame for a 4th straight 9th place finish. I kind of don't care who it is as long as it's someone.
Racing 1 Thorns 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing put in their best defensive performance in quite some time and used a late winner to take all 3 points at home against the Thorns. The late-night result in San Jose means that Racing still needs help to make the playoffs.
In my opinion, this is exactly the type of match that Racing should be striving to play at this point: Nullify the first 60 minutes or so and win the final 30. You are never going to turn down an early lead, but you shouldn't play like the scoreline is 1-0 until about the 80th minute if you are a team like Racing. They needed a clean sheet to win this match. They also needed to know that they were still capable of one as a unit.
This really was a team effort to keep a clean sheet. After the match the Thorns coach Rob Gale bellyached about what he thought his team “deserved”. He must have skipped over the part of the match where Racing won the “Duels” category (Racing won 62% of the duels, and 78% of the aerial duels). Racing won this match the old-fashioned way in that they used their taller players to play over the top of the Thorns. Racing played 27 accurate long balls (51%) compared to just 4 (9%) for Portland. This is anti-modern football, and the reason I think more teams need to try it is that it can nullify a talent disadvantage AND teams are not used to seeing it as often. Everyone wants to play beautiful football and stick to playing out from the back. At this point that stubbornness to play out of the back at all costs is more reflective of dull conformity than rare beauty. Racing got this match 100% right.
I really didn’t think any player for Racing particularly distinguished themselves last night, and that isn’t a bad thing. To be honest, Flint had some sloppiness to her game (64% percent accuracy including a couple of real head-scratchers) but got the goal in the end. Beckie, Flint, and Bev all commented on how this was a specific change in set piece work this week to focus on Talyor as the target on that particular piece. The Fischer for DeMelo sub was a good one. DeMelo didn’t have a particularly poor match, but Fischer brought enough energy to change things up. It was a cohesive performance for the most part and that has to be encouraging to the coaching staff.
It was a good win, but it was a win that you get from time-to-time where your team gets the single big break. I don’t think the team we saw last night was drastically different from what we have seen in the last few matches. There were fewer mistakes, which is good, but it was honestly just a random win. Racing could go out to San Diego and play about the same and get a win, draw or loss. This is a C-student level team. From time-to-time you will get an A-level effort and an A-level result, but you will also get some Ds and Fs.
I don’t know why the league decided against another “decision day” schedule like the one last year. It is rather unfortunate. Anyway, Racing will know when they kick off next Saturday if they have a shot and exactly what they need to do. The most “fun” scenario might be Racing needed to win by a 3-goal scoreline to overtake Portland, but the easiest would be for Bay to lose. Either way, Racing still needs help. A-students get the job done early and sometimes get to opt-out of the final exam. C-students sometimes have to cram and hope nobody blows up the grading curve. Humility is not my strongest asset, so I don’t have any hesitation letting you know that I was consistently an A-student. Maybe that’s why I never got Racing’s mentality this year. I never wanted to just scrape by and “peak” in time for the last six weeks or a final exam. From a mentality perspective, I just don’t think you can go wrong with pushing yourself early and often and leaving nothing to chance. Racing wrote off the first part of the season as a learning and growing exercise and the A-student in me just finds that frustrating and mind-boggling. I will admit that it could have worked, but why even set yourself up to squeak into the playoffs. None of this was deliberate by Racing. Very few people want to set themselves up to be C-students. I think they just misjudged where the bar was ultimately going to be set. Only the players and coaches will know if they gave it their all. If they did and still fall short, then it was a noble season if it was ultimately unsuccessful.
Racing 1 Thorns 0 Player Ratings
Racing kept their playoff hopes alive with a late winner. After the Bay FC match tonight, they could find themselves in the driver's seat.
Lund-6: Had a good match but didn't get tested at whole lot to be honest.
Petersen-6: Solid in her return to the starting lineup.
Erceg-7: Nervy a time or two, but first clean sheet in a long while deserves praise.
Wright-7: Kept the right side locked down when Lo ventured forward.
Milliet-7: Always works so hard.
Flint-7: Her goal redeemed an otherwise mediocre performance.
DiGrande-6: Solid once again.
DeMelo-6: Better, but Racing could use more out of her.
Sears-7: Looked to be the best attacking threat all night.
Beckie-7: Hustled tremendously and kept Racing’s pressure on Portland at a good level.
Balcer-6: Fought hard to win her aerial duels.
Racing v Thorns Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Racing has the opportunity to put real pressure on Bay this Saturday if they can somehow come up with a win. Alternatively, if they continue their pattern of capitulation, Bay may only need to scratch out a point to eliminate Racing.
The theme early in the season was improving in order to peak at the right time. Racing never peaked. Even if they were able to scratch out a couple of wins in their last two matches, I would doubt very much if we could attribute it much to “the plan”. Be good all of the time sounds like an overly simplistic idea, but it is the mentality of champions or teams with a championship in their crosshairs. Racing never seemed committed to anything other than clawing their way into the playoffs. That could still happen, but the organizational mentality has been all wrong this season. However, I don’t think the team has necessarily underperformed. I now realize that they simply didn’t commit the resources to improving enough over last season when compared to the teams ahead of them in the table. Portland has only just pulled themselves out of their slump, but they are guilty of it too. They got worse but started in a better position so that the fall didn’t cost them the playoffs (but I don’t think they have a shot at winning the trophy and this is surely a disappointing season by their standards). This year’s Racing team might beat last year’s 3 or 4 times out of 10 (they would probably draw 5 and lose 1or 2) but that level of improvement simply isn’t good enough.
Honestly, without some significant change (not necessarily in club personnel) I don’t see next season being much better. Does anybody really think Racing got drastically better from March to October? You can point to the addition of players and that was a temporary, marginal help, but do any of the players that were getting significant minutes in March seem to be playing better or more cohesively with their teammates now that it is October? They sure don’t to me.
I believe that this club has to commit to being different and doing things differently going forward. I have ideas (that of course will only be implemented by pure coincidence) that I will lay out after the season is actually over. Let’s be clear here. Unless they somehow make the playoffs and that doesn’t seem likely, there have been 4 years of failure and that is long enough to either admit to being a doormat or stop being one.
Spirit 4 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
At this moment Racing just doesn't look like a very good team. Typically when you aren't a good team, your opponent merely has to wait and pounce on your mistakes, which the Spirit did with Ruthless efficiency.
I really did hold out hope that the moves in the summer transfer window were enough to get Racing over the hump. I liked all of the moves, and I still do. It is now apparent that they had too many misses in the winter window and it is just too steep of a hill to climb at this point. Racing doesn't have any real depth, and some of their critical players just are not stepping up when it matters. Let's be honest: DeMelo has been poor and based on her 2nd half performance, you can hardly blame Bev for dropping her. Lund still makes too many mistakes. She can be great one match and then terrible in the next. The drop in Erceg’s play has been noticeable but we know that Yanez doesn't have any better options. Borges hasn't been consistent. Sears can't defend reliably enough to play 90. The real problem is that there are not many other options. I don't know how we end up in this spot every season, but there are only about 16 players on the roster that can be trusted to put in any real minutes.
Yanez is getting consistently outcoached. That isn’t a real dig at her, but more of a statement of quality in the other technical area. I mean look at Jonatan Giráldez's resume. I often get the feeling that Racing are playing checkers and their opponents are playing chess. Racing's terrible decision to hire a sexual predator to lead the club means that they have to err on the side of caution when hiring coaches. It sickens me to even have to write that sentence. It is unfathomable to me that the league/sport let things get so bad for so long. I don't ever want to assume that the problem is “solved”. Any coach could be exposed as a dirtbag at any point. Believe me, I get it. I think Racing feels like they have to make safe hires. However, I still think you can find experienced tacticians that aren't scumbags. At least I hope you can. I am not saying that Racing shouldn't be patient with Coach Yanez, but I do think she needs more help. Her system simply isn't yielding results.
Racing is just so stubborn as an institution. They always have been. Playing out of the back is a luxury, that few teams can really afford. I am sure that they still see it as the way forward. I am convinced that the next evolution will be flexibility. So many youth teams are playing out from the back now that pretty soon nobody will even remember how to defend route one football. I believe that the teams that can adapt to their opponents, and even adapt inside of a match will be the future. If you follow a good team and you watch a team that isn’t very good stubbornly try to play out of the back against them, you start to salivate. It's exactly what the good team wants. I have to think that the Spirit were begging Racing to stick to the plan. You witnessed the result.
The season isn't technically over, but it feels like it is. A win next week would potentially change things but Portland seems to have been able to pull themselves out of their slump. Anything is possible but it is more probable that Racing ends up in 9th or 10th and stuck with a roster that cannot be dismissed as “too young” anymore. The defense needs an overhaul, but that is easier said than done. The tactics are stale and predictable even when the formation changes. For me, an offseason will be most welcome at this point.
Spirit 4 Racing 1 Player Ratings
Washington dictated play and defeated Louisville fairly handily. A consolation goal for Sears helped the scoreline, but the outcome was never really in doubt.
Lund-4: Guilty of conceding an unnecessary corner on an awful pass and mostly guilty for conceding the opener.
Wright-6: She is needed on the interior.
Erceg-5: Didn't always give Lund the best options for a pass by setting up at poor angles.
Jean-4: Played herself out of a job, so I don't know why she was considered a good option here.
Milliet-5: Too high up the pitch at times, but at least she gives her all.
Flint-5: Has to be the one to break up play against teams like the Spirit.
Borges-5: Her passing was too sloppy in the first half.
DiGrande-5: Puzzling decision to start her over DeMelo.
Fischer-6: Decent and avoided a yellow card.
Balcer-5: Missed a fairly decent chance to pull Racing close at the start of the second half.
Beckie-4: Conceded one of the dumbest penalties you will see this year.
DeMelo-5: Invisible.
Sears-7: Scored a terrific, meaningless goal.
Spirit v Racing Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
As the season winds down, Racing finds itself will little apparent margin for error. Washington isn't a great team to face with your backs against the wall, especially on the road.
Racing has taken some hard-fought points off the Spirit in Washington in the past. The two previous trips to Washington have seen Racing pull back a point from losing positions. I think this is a better Washington team, so any points here would be a positive.
If I am being completely honest, the end of this season doesn't feel much different from the end of the last two. My enthusiasm related to Racing has dropped, but maybe that's just me. Racing has never won 3 in a row, and while 7 points might be enough 9 would be much better. The team still seems to lack any kind of consistency, so a winning run just doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.
After I called Racing “a well-coached team”, they have put together a couple of dismal performances. I hardly ever go out on a limb, and I will be even less likely to do so in the future. I wouldn't soley fault the coaching because I think the players have not been at their best regardless of the plan.
Racing’s season-long lack of urgency will likely cost them in the end. I never felt like they were in a great hurry to get results. Until they are ready to treat the macthes like battles instead of games, I don't see how much will change.
Racing 0 Current 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
The effort for Racing last night oscillated between indifferent and non-existent, so the result is hardly surprising. Kansas City never seemed too bothered by any of Racing’s counter punches and ultimately cruised to an easy victory.
There was a huge Taylor Flint-sized hole in the midfield last night, but I am not sure how much difference it would have made. Racing’s back line without Flint in front of it looks labored and slow. Temwa Chawinga scored so early and easily that I felt like she powered down into 2nd gear after the first few minutes in order to save her energy for a tougher opponent. Truth be told, I think she could have scored 2 or 3 more if she was in the mood to do so. Wright was no match for her pace, so when it was Chawinga vs. Wright instead of Chawinga vs. Milliet I thought a goal was inevitable. Thankfully Chawinga didn’t score but the one.
The defense needs some upgrades in the offseason. Wright is not quick enough for the league’s speedier attackers, and Erceg has lost enough of her fastball that she needs a quicker partner. Petersen was off of her game last night, so I won’t judge her too harshly, but it was definitely her worst performance in a Racing kit that I have witnessed. The back line as a whole misplaced too many passes in their own half, especially early, to build any real momentum after the early Current goal.
One of the reasons that I do player ratings is that I believe that stats-based models that sites like Fotmob uses miss quite a few nuances and reward mediocrity. However, last night I think Fotmob kind of encapsulated the effort. The entire team hovered in the “average range” between 5.9 and 6.9. In essence, no player last night did much to distinguish themselves. Milliet ran after a few lost causes, but they were just that, lost causes. Sears’ physical gifts means that sometimes she looks like she isn’t exerting maximum effort when she is. However, last night she quit on some balls and lost focus multiple times. Racing is in trouble when she is expected to play 90 minutes of defense because I don’t think she is fully engaged on that side of the ball yet. DeMelo looked so out of place in what I think a lot of us assume to be her best position, that I bet quite a few of us are rethinking her impact through the middle. Personally, I don’t think Wright should be playing 90 minutes against the league’s top opponents.
The glass half full view is that due to the other league results Racing did not really lose any ground. If the team can get something positive in Washinton, they still have a shot. The glass half empty view, which I tend to frequently hold with this team is that regardless of if Racing squeaks into the playoffs, they don’t have much shot of winning a match against a top opponent.
Racing 0 Current 2 Player Ratings
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Racing got off to the worse possible start and never quite recovered. There isn't much to takeaway other than the better team won.
Lund-6: She was fine.
Petersen-5: Her worst match for Racing.
Erceg-6: Decent enough.
Wright-5: Got beaten for pace multiple times.
Milliet-7: Hustled her tail off, along with Fischer. Racing needs Milliet-like efforts from more players.
DiGrande-6: I thought she was fairly effective in the midfield.
Borges-6: Better than she has been recently.
DeMelo-5: Caught on the ball too many times and disappeared a few times.
Sears-5: Sometimes her best attributes overshadow her mistakes, which were frequent tonight.
Beckie-6: Needs better delivery from Petersen to be more effective.
Balcer-6: Needs better service in general.
Racing v Current Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
The playoffs haven’t started yet, but Racing has to be in “play-in” mode in the next 4 matches to have a realistic shot at making the post-season for the first time. The club is also pulling out every trick in the bag to try to get more fans in the stadium, but that may also be too little to late.
I posted on Twitter (never X) that I was not going to watch or comment on the Utah loss, and I stood by that this week. I listened to BTRD to get a sense of the match, and I think that listen combined with a quick look at the stat sheet gave me enough context to avoid a dreadful watching experience. It appeared to be another in long line of momentum-killing matches. Racing just cannot seem to win 3 matches in a row.
Bev Yanez took The Courier Journal to plead with fans to attends these next couple of matches. The irony was not lost on me that the club decided that the local newspaper was the right avenue for this. I feel fairly confident that The Courier Journal won’t be here in 50 years (and I probably won’t either so nobody should be able to call me on it if I am wrong), but Racing’s lifetime in Louisville appears to be in so much jeopardy that I would count 5 years as a blessing. I would not fault Soccer Holdings if the team wasn’t here in 5 months. Other (mostly significantly larger) cities have figured out how to make their teams sustainable, if not quite profitable. Profitability should not be a major concern for owners of sports franchises, but the teams have to be somewhat sustainable (and sustainable within the rules…I am looking at you Angel City). It would be a local tragedy if Racing didn’t make it in Louisville, but it wouldn’t be a league tragedy. I would argue that it wouldn’t even be a league failure. I am sure the league would much rather have a team in Miami pull 6,000 fans over one in Louisville. Louisville was very, very fortunate to get a team in the first place. I would hate to see Racing leave, but at this point I blame the populace. The last I heard, the USWNT had not sold out Lynn Family Stadium for its match. I think that likely says all that needs to be said about this city. The appetite isn’t there. I enjoy Racing win or lose. However, I am part of a minute minority. If you are reading this, you are part of a miniscule one.
While the club is still hear and has something to play for, I guess I should move on to the soccer. Racing has a decent history against Kansas City, so I give them a fighting chance on Saturday. I will not have too much harsh criticism for the match in Utah, but based on what I heard on BTRD it seemed like Racing had very little control of the match. One should never strictly equate control with possession. Racing was in control of large sections of the match against North Carolina whether they had the ball or not. They were fine with North Carolina possessing the ball on certain spots of the pitch. That is control as well. In the first match against Kansas City, there were several times where the Current seems to have the match put away and were dominating. However, Racing pulled out a point in the end by staying close and Kansas City shutting off a bit. Kansas City is firmly a top 4 side this season, but they are not a team that you count yourself out against if you go behind (where they are about league average). On the other hand, they are never put away if they go behind first (they lead the league at 1.83 pts/match when the other team scores first). Basically, the team scores goals and plenty of them. If Racing are to win, the safe bet is on winning a shootout.
Royals v Racing Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing looks to extend its winning streak to 3 in a row on Saturday in Salt Lake City. The simplest formula to make the playoffs is to continue to get 3 points every week, so that will be the focus.
Frequent visitors to this space will know that I tend to put quite a bit of stock into scoring first. It is very clear that scoring first gives you the best chance to win. I know that statement isn’t particularly insightful or earth-shattering news, but it is something that I monitor because it is very important. I think sometimes people sometimes spend too much time looking for deep insights, when the plain as day, blatantly obvious thing is the most useful. Here is why I bring it up now. Racing has fallen behind in consecutive matches. In general, doing such a thing is a bad proposition. This season, when a team does not score the first goal, their chances of getting all 3 points is around 14%. That also means that pulling off a sequence where you don’t score first in three matches in a row and winning all 3 of those matches is around .3% (3 times out of 1000). I won’t bore you with probability theory, but since the two preceding matches are known results, the probability of winning on Saturday if they fall behind is still around 14% based solely this year’s scoring first results. All I am really trying to point out here is that the numbers say a quick start in this match is prudent. It is one thing to fall behind at home (when the road team scores first, the home team averages .69 points), but a worse proposition on the road (when the home team score’s first, the road team averages .43 points). In the last match against North Carolina, Racing let the match come to them, and it worked out well. In Utah, I am torn about what the most effective scenario might be. I like Racing’s prospects much better in a 2-1 match over a 1-0 match. Racing only has 4 clean sheets in the league this season and none since early June. Utah concedes 1.6 goals per match, and only scores .7 per match, so jumping on them early seems to be the way to go. I will feel much better if Racing concedes the inevitable goal with a 3 goal or more lead. Just don’t concede the first one.
As of this moment, I won’t be able to watch the Utah match live. Depending on when I do finally get to see it, I may combine my player ratings post with my post-match thoughts. Either way, don’t look for my ratings immediately after the match.
Racing 2 Courage 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing fought hard and came away with all 3 points on a humid night at Lynn. By keeping their composure and maintaining their belief, they took full advantage of some costly errors by the Courage.
The outcome dictates the narrative. It is pure and simple. What in the moment might look like a lack of urgency, with a favorable outcome can be later explained as level-headed composure. Conversely, constant pressing may look like brave ambition in real time but turn out to be foolish risk-taking when you end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. With Racing on the right side of the scoreline on Saturday, I will take my analysis where the outcome dictates. However, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t at least point out that this match could very easily have yielded no points but for a couple of Courage errors.
Last’s night’s match was a reminder that the aggressors don’t always win. In fact, I personally found it deeply, deeply rewarding to find that Racing’s composure is what won them the match especially when it had failed them so many times before. As I said with last week performance, I don’t think this is Racing’s magic recipe for 3 points, but in reality, there is no magic recipe. What is apparent is that the experience that Racing added recently has had a calming effect on some of their nervier moments. Two short matches ago against Bay, Racing seemed unable to stem the momentum of an opponent in the ascendancy. Last night, Racing held the Courage at bay for just about the entire match. One of the biggest differences in this Racing performance against Courage is that while Racing conceded possession they didn’t concede control. Several times in the match Racing won possession in their own half, but calmly strung some passes together instead of just kicking it away. This is what I refer to as counter possession, and that aspect of the match was really good for Racing. Racing outshot the Courage, and the Courage only had 2 shots on target. It was the quintessential example of possessing the ball without doing much with it for the Courage. Racing was able to stay in the match because while they defended for large parts of it, only the last few minutes of stoppage had anything remotely close to the kind of energy-draining “desperate defending” that had plagued them in matches earlier in the season. This may be the best game management result of the season.
There will be errors in every match, so the best thing that Racing did last night was to make sure that they capitalized on them. The terrible back pass by Rauch would have been egregious enough for me to give her a 4 rating if I rated the opposition players in my player ratings posts. Weatherholt probably gets away with a handball offense if it hits her right arm and not her left. However, Racing still had to finish off both errors. With Sears on the right side, she had the composure to take the ball past the keeper with her right foot and finish with her left into an empty net. It’s maybe not the same level of composure if it happens with her on the left. Strikers should be your penalty takers and now that Racing has a pure and experienced striker, Balcer confidently finished off the penalty. I think Racing was somewhat fortunate to have a player that wasn’t carrying the burden of Racing’s history with North Carolina take the penalty. Nadia Nadim has been on the only other penalty taker for Racing that made me feel as confident when she stepped up to the spot.
For the first-time in Racing’s history, I feel like I would define them as a “well coached” team. It took time for this coaching staff to gel completely with the players, but I feel like plans are being executed better than they ever have before. I may not always agree with them, but that isn’t important. Give me a well-executed plan I don’t fully believe in over a poorly executed one I agree with any day. Bev admitted that there are still some things that aren’t being fully executed, but I think that is more of a when vs. if scenario now. Execution is a shared burden, so all sides deserve the credit. The team needs to finish the job, so my opinion could shift again with more evidence, but as of now this looks like a playoff team.
Racing 2 Courage 1 Player Ratings
You will remember the 21st night of September. Racing finally got the Courage monkey off of their back.
Lund-7: Excellent once again.
Petersen-7: Does different stuff than Pickett but has been so good so far.
Erceg-6: A late start and a little slip hurt Racing on the Courage goal, but good otherwise.
Wright-7: I like her so much more centrally.
Milliet-6: Got knocked over more times than usual, but kept getting back up.
Flint-7: Had a couple of loose passes but these type of matches are made for her.
Borges-6: Got muscled off the ball a few times and needs to be physically stronger in matches like this.
DiGrande-7: Interchanged with DeMelo to give Racing some different looks.
Beckie-6: Solid on both sides.
DeMelo-7: Won some important fouls for Racing.
Balcer-7: Missed a header that she will want back but buried the penalty.
Sears-8: Scored a hustle goal that you love to see.
The Swashbuckling Racers versus the Scurvy Dogs of Cary
Ahoy!
I am commanderin' dis space today t' give me take on the epic battle on Saturday at the Colosseum o’ the Eye. Me name be Cap'n Albatross Blades, but ye can call me the Lavender Scourge. I will be givin' me opinion on the state o' affairs in Kentucky afore headin' back out the sea.
First, let me give ye me unvarnished opinion on the bilgewater burg o' Cary. Thar has ne'er been a town more full o' worthless landlubbers than Cary. I spent a month thar one week. It made me wants t' walk the plank straight into the sea 'n become shark bait. The “research triangle” be full o' egg heads dat wouldna know a mizzen from a killick. I'd run 'em straight through wit' me cutlass as soon as look at 'em.
While me buckos enjoy the devil's rum, I am fond o' the fermented corn produced in the bluegrass state. Louisville has a place in dis ole sea dog’s heart. The ladies in lavender do thar city proud. On t’ the match!
The Racers will needs t' be like a cur aft a peg leg in dis here match. The Cary Curs 'ave hornswaggled poor Louisville in every match thus far. Dat must end now! T' pillage all o' the booty the crew will needs t' let Sav DeMelo off the leash 'n send her straight down the middle o' the pitch. The lily-livered curs will likely keep the ball, but the Racers must nah let 'em get t' comfortable. The Racers will needs t' be ready t' batten down the hatches 'n catch 'em by surprise. Louisville will use their seadogs t' weigh anchor 'n hoist the mizzen! The Lavender Legion should sing thar sea shanties loudly 'n proudly.
'Tis time t' head back out t' sea. Thar be treasure t' be found 'n doubloons t' be spent! I will be watchin' from me crow's nest 'n givin' the cat o nine tails t' any scallywag cheerin' fer the dread Courage.
GO RACING!
Racing 2 Angel City 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing put in a hard-nosed performance against Angel City and got a much needed 3 points. They will need to keep the performance levels elevated to maintain momentum for the last matches of the season.
I imagine an Angel City beat writer composing the narrative for their article containing such familiar sentiments as “they controlled the match” and “didn’t take their opportunities” but it was “not a bad performance”. It again reminds us of the fine margins between getting 3 points and 0. Based strictly on the numbers it is hard to argue that this is Racing’s recipe for success. However, next week's match against North Carolina is very likely to look similar from a possession perspective. I don’t like percent possession as a measure generally. Taken with the pass completion percentage and the number of completed passes in this match, one could say that Angel City likely did enough to win the match. In addition, looking at cumulative xG (another stat that I personally find misleading as a match-indicative statistic) Angel City will feel hard done by. The good news for Racing is that in matches like this one, the stats are a mere curiosity. Racing made the most of their chances and ultimately that was the story of the match.
The reason that it became the story of the match was due to Katie Lund. Even on Angel City’s goal she did all that could be asked of her. I am highly critical of Katie Lund from time to time. It is because she is capable of performances like this that I am so critical. I believe that THERE IS NO OTHER KEEPER IN THE LEAGUE EVEN CLOSE TO HER WHEN SHE IS AT HER BEST. She was absolutely at her best tonight. There was definitely one but probably more than one shot that she is the only keeper in the league that makes the save. I have highlighted where she needs to be better, but I won't rehash that here. She seems to relish matches where she is engaged early and often. Racing will need her to be in top form to make the playoffs and this performance was a good sign.
Balcer's goal was fantastic for a few reasons. The post match media focused on Balcer's finish which was top class. It was daring and assured. It was the type of goal that Racing sorely needs. On the rewatch, I was just as pleased with the ball movement leading to the goal. The passes and Borges’ movement to create the space to make the assisting pass should not be overlooked. It was the classic quick, but not rushed movement that is not only eye-catching but incredibly effective. That movement looked like a team that had played together for years. It's a good sign that things can click so effectively with players who are relatively unfamiliar with each other.
Beckie's excellent goal was also one where the preceding action was just as important. It is hard to overstate how good Beckie's finish was. The angle was tight, but her power and accuracy rendered that tight angle irrelevant. Her finish seemed instinctual and it is the type of finish that you get with an experienced and decorated player. It was all started because Kayla Fischer chased a ball that she was never going to win. Of course winning the ball wasn't the point. She rushed Haracic into an embarrassingly poor pass, and Beckie pounced on it. After the match Beckie made a point to praise Fischer. Unfortunately Racing will be without her against North Carolina due to her picking up her 8th yellow card.
Racing 2 Angel City 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Racing put in a fine performance and finally got a much needed win. They did an excellent job managing the end of the match.
Lund-8: Excellent, excellent, excellent. Her best performance of the year.
Petersen-7: Very nice full debut.
Erceg-7: Great captian's performance tonight.
Wright-7: Looked comfortable back in the centerback role.
Milliet-7: Started off really high on the pitch, but defended well.
Flint-7: I felt like she turned her performance up a notch tonight.
Borges-7: Great assist on Balcer's equalizer.
DiGrande-7: Made me rethink moving DeMelo back to midfield.
DeMelo-7: Great to have her back.
Beckie-8: Scored the type of goal she was brought here for.
Balcer-8: Hit an absolutely thunderous goal.
Racing v Angel City Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Saturday is the annual “Pups at the Pitch” match for Racing and the team doesn’t have much room to “dog it” (audible howl). Every dog has its day (I’ll stop. I promise) and Racing needs to be a “lucky dog” (I lied) at this point to pull themselves back into the playoff race or find themselves in the doghouse with fans again.
That dog won’t hunt: Racing’s recent defensive efforts and structure while not bad might not be the way to go against Angel City. That team is full of one-on-one attacking specialists and Racing’s recent tendency (regardless of what the nominal formation is) has been to press the fullbacks into attack especially Milliet. Against Bay, Milliet found herself backpedaling to get into the right defensive position on the counter. Ultimately that didn’t result in a goal for Bay, but the opportunities were definitely there. Angel City likes to possess the ball, and Racing doesn’t typically fare well against the more possession-oriented teams. I expect Racing’s back line (including Milliet) to be a bit more reserved in their attacks. You definitely don’t want to be giving up too many counterattacking opportunities to Angel City.
New Dogs/Old Tricks: The recent additions to Racing’s roster brought immediate success, but not much afterwards. Arguably the performance against the Reign was good enough, but the Bay performance was pretty awful, especially in the second half. It’s an old refrain with me: I don’t necessarily think Racing isn’t good enough to win, but they aren’t really good enough to avoid the random nature of results in this league. I think Orlando completely changed their makeup and identity this season to shed some of the baggage that had been plaguing them since their inception. Racing swung big during the transfer window but after a few matches it still feels like the same old team. I warned that a Mal Swanson-less Red Stars would make pretty much any team look good. Since then, Racing played two matches where luck/randomness helped determine the outcome. The sun doesn’t shine on the same dog’s butt all the time, but Racing seems to have seen nary a sunbeam this season. However, it’s hard to justify consistently coming out on the wrong side of things as luck. I don’t know any other way to describe Racing’s circumstances other than they feel perpetually unlucky. Being who I am, I know that to be nonsense. Probabilities simply won’t allow such things. There has to be something causal that makes them feel so unlucky, but I can’t tell you what it is. The only thing I can point to is that maybe the players lack collective belief at this point, and I happen to think that such a lack of belief is contagious.
A bark worse than its bite: Listening to some of the Racing coaches’ and players’ soundbites this season, one would assume that Racing sits comfortably in the middle of the table. Even yesterday, there was a lack of urgency in their answers relating to this specific match. From the coaches’ and players’ perspective I am sure they mean to convey a lack of panic and honestly how gloomy can you be when you have spent the morning holding puppies. 840 WHAS’s Paul Miles asked both Yanez and Erceg about what it meant to play a team that is directly competing for a playoff spot. It was a question that I would have asked as well. The two-word phrase that I didn’t hear was “must-win”. I get why neither of them said it, but every match at this point could be an elimination match. You just might not know it until the end of the season. All season we have heard encouraging words from Bev and positive responses from the players. They talk a good game, but the play on the field has never quite matched it. I always recoiled at the tacit dismissal of lost points early in the season as part of some learning process, or “peaking at the right time” platitude. Racing has yet to consistently convert the confidence they convey off the pitch to results on it. I still think there is enough talent on this team to make the playoffs, but there is no longer time for patience. A switch must be flipped at this point. I hope this team has it in them.