Angel City - Louisville Preview

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

While this Louisville team so far has proven on multiple fronts that they are a much-improved squad they have yet to show what they can do when playing with a lead.

Having played 180 minutes either level or trailing isn’t exactly cause for concern (yet), but it hasn’t let me evaluate one of my lingering concerns from last year which was holding onto a lead. In the 2022 season only Washington was worse than Louisville at getting points after they scored first. The Spirit averaged a dreadful 1.6 points when scoring first and Louisville only managed to be slightly better at 1.7 points (league average being 2.2). It seems painfully obvious that scoring first greatly increases your chances of winning, but that doesn't make it any less important. Scoring first last year gave that team a 65% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and only a 10% chance of losing.

Funnily enough, this week’s Angel City v Louisville matchup in LA was one of those 10% matches last year, and so was the reverse fixture in Louisville. I don’t expect the same thing to happen a third time in a row, but you never know. I asked Paige Monaghan about the importance of getting on the front foot to manage the crowd in LA. She responded that the plan was to (like always) “press and be aggressive” and “we’re going to take it to them.” Similarly I asked Coach Björkegren if the win in LA late last season would be helpful for this season’s match. He responded, “Every time when you win that type of game it helps you.”

One of the noticeable things at practice on Thursday was that both Ekic and Nadim were on the pitch although practicing by themselves. Ekic looks closer to returning to action than Nadim. Kgatlana was a “full” participant in practice, but don’t get your hopes up yet, because there was not a full scrimmage since not all of the players had arrived back from international break. Kgatlana is probably still a month away.

With the delayed return of some players, it is possible that there could be a little rotation. I expect Lester to make the trip and be on the bench, but you have to imagine that the back half of the outfield players for Angel City will be Pickett, Erceg, Pikkujämsä, Milliet and Howell. Those five should remain steady for the foreseeable future unless injury forces a change.