Angel City v Racing Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Image
Racing face another litmus test on the road on Wednesday in Los Angeles against Angel City. If Louisville is serious about something more than a top half finish, this is the type of match that they need to find a way to win.
Racing is still trying to find out who they are. They moved from 7th to 8th after the loss on Saturday, so by one definition that is pretty clearly “middling”. If you think of the league in 3 tiers (upper echelon/middle of the pack/cellar dwellers) Racing is pretty firmly in the middle of the pack tier. Angel City is arguably in that tier as well (only Seattle and Utah are teams that I feel completely comfortable saying are “cellar dwellers”). If Racing is to rebound against Angel City, it will take a more complete effort that they showed against Gotham. Racing definitely have it in them to win or lose both matches on this road trip, so focus and determination will likely be the deciding factors.
Forgetting which players are the nominal midfielders, Racing’s midfield has to be better than it showed against Gotham. Saturday reminded me of some of the circa 2022/2023 performances where Racing put up absolutely no fight while teams with good possession skills cut right through the middle third of the pitch like there were no Racing players there. I honestly think that lack of controlled possession in the middle third has been a 3 and a half year issue for Racing that shows no sign of changing. I know I have said it multiple times and in multiple ways on this space, but I just don't think Racing values control as much as other teams.
I don't often get to hung up on individual match statistics, but I do like to look at overall trends. FobMob does a player rating for each player in every match. While I don't particularly agree with their methodology completely, it is pretty good for an aggregate measure over time. Any automated player rating system is always going to prioritize stat padding and measurables, but there really isn't any other way to do an automated system. Racing's average player rating is 6.96 which puts them at 5th best in the league (essentially tied with 6th place Gotham) and they are closer to 1st place (7.09) than 7th (6.80). The teams above them are exactly who you would expect (Current, Spirit, Thorns and Pride). My takeaway is that Racing is still performing at a rate that is less than the sum of their parts (or at least less than their statistical parts). That to me indicates something systemic above lack of talent. It's still too early to read too much into this, but as long as Racing plays in the style they do (which I admit to being 100% biased against) I believe they will continue to be less than the sum of their parts. Gotham plays more to my style preference, so Racing’s loss stung a little less than a usual one because at least I got to see a system executed well (albeit for only 40-45 minutes).
While Angel City isn't nearly as good, they do like to control the ball as much as Gotham does. That typically means quite a bit of running for their opponents. With a short turn around it’s tough to imagine that Racing will set up much differently. On her media availability on Wednesday Bev was asked about load management, and that could be the key to how these next few matches go. This is the kind of stretch where you would like to rotate your fullbacks a bit or at least not give them 3 full 90s in 11 days. If Ellie Jean doesn’t see time during this stretch, I think it speaks volumes. I think the same goes for Motlhalo and Kurosaki as well. Howell is getting “healthy” at the right time, but there is no way she plays a full 90 in any of these matches without a deep inquiry (from me at least). Racing’s roster has felt on the thin side for a while, so they really don’t have anyone else to blame if they get overworked during this period.
