Portland v Louisville Preview
Courtesy USA Today Sports
Louisville has never taken a point off of Portland. Until they do so, it’s hard for me to believe that the next match will be any different. When a student starts to learn basic statistics, they may be presented with a problem that starts like “If it rains today, the chances of rain tomorrow is 70%…” It’s a really basic way to look at prediction, but it stuck with me. The rest of the problem usually asks the student (also given the chance of rain if it is not raining today) to predict the probability that it will be raining the day after tomorrow. Louisville very likely will get points off of Portland one day, but I just can’t imagine it happening until they do so. It rained every other time. It will probably rain tomorrow.
In the fandom, there is a definite hangover from the draw in Angel City. However, I don’t expect this match to be anything like that match. Portland will not lay an egg for an entire half. Louisville’s best shot is probably to snatch points in the waning minutes. No multiple goal lead is safe from Portland and any multiple goal lead by Portland is virtually insurmountable.
Björkegren stated that just about everything that could go wrong, did go wrong when it came to squad selection last week. He did concede that he would have likely handled subs differently if he had a full, healthy bench for the match against Angel City. The good news is that Borges, Lester, and Murray have recovered from the issues impacting them. Kanu may be on the bench, but won’t start. Wang is back with the team, so I guess we’ll see what the availability report says about that tomorrow.
One of these days we may get to see a back line of Pickett/Erceg/Pikkujämsä/Milliet, but every time I think so, it doesn’t happen. No matter how much Louisville will want to impose themselves, it’s hard to picture them spending loads of time in their attacking third. I don’t think it’s in anyone’s nature at the club to want to sit deep but if any match calls for a back 5 it’s this one. One option could be Lester at right back and Milliet on the right wing to give you a back 4 with the ball and a back 5 without. That’s probably a little too out there, but I don’t think you have anything to lose.
