Louisville v Chicago Prematch Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Small editorial note: I have decided to change the title of the posts prior to the macthes from “Preview” to “Prematch Thoughts” as it more accurately reflects the typical content of the posts.
It is time to face facts, folks. Louisville is not a good team. They aren't even really average by any meaningful metric. I know “good” is an ill-defined word, so let me present 3 numbers that for me define how not “good” they are. They are 11th out of 12th in the table, but that can be explained away by the schedule and “it's early”. The other two are demonstrated here:
Louisville is below average at getting points when they fall behind and well below average when getting a lead (the league average is indicated by the NWSL logo).
Don't get me wrong, I know some of you believe in this team, but for me there is too much data and evidence that they simply are not good enough as currently constructed and sent out to play. I have tired of cherry-picked examples of good or even excellent stretches of play presented as evidence. It's fools gold. The cold, harsh reality is that this team has 4 points from 6 matches. If you step back and take in the bigger picture, you will see that whatever “this” is from Louisville, it isn't close to working well enough to produce consistent results.
The eye test says that this team is better, but I am starting to wonder if we as a collective fan base have mistaken “improvement” for “being good”. Just as it's entirely possible to move from good to great, and great to excellent, it's also entirely possible to move from poor to fair, and fair to average. It is relative improvement and that doesn't quite tell you how you stack up against competition. In my opinion, only results do that. For every “ this team is so close” and “individual mistakes hurt us” excuse, there are other, better teams that are taking the chances presented to them (Gotham/Orlando recently) and/or are good enough to recover from individual errors to win matches (perennial winners Portland/OL Reign).
Whatever set of fragile, delicately-balanced conditions that have to be met in order for Louisville to win a match this season have not been demonstrated yet. I would argue that it really boils down to this: Louisville doesn't take full advantage of the periods in the matches where they play well, and are too susceptible to giving up goals when they aren't playing particularly well. My belief is that good teams win when they play well, but also get points even when they aren't at their best. The number of times that Louisville has “played well” and come away with one or no points makes me question if they simply aren't playing at a better level than the fans have ever experienced, but that level still isn't good enough to win.
I know there have been some perspectives from people outside Louisville (fans, media, and coaches) that have been positive. I’m starting to think those opnions suffer from the same lens. Yes, Louisville is better, but it would be almost impossible to not be with the talent infusion this season.
Now, I know I've lost some.of you and there is a section of the fanbase that will be apologists for anything this team does. Like most apologists, they will basically argue that I can’t say for sure that this team will not get better and even possibly win their next 4 matches and ultimately make the playoffs. They are 100% correct in saying that I can't say that for sure. However, this ignores all prior evidence. This club has never been able to consistently protect a lead since Coach Björkegren has been here. Their point tally is lower from the first six matches this season when compared to the two prior seasons. Also, I was reminded when I listened to Butchertown Rundown that I said that this team would need to score 3 goals to win a match, something that has proven eerily true in 4 out of the 6 matches.
In summary, my point is that this team isn't good or even really average and you're deluding yourself if you think that is suddenly going to change without some kind of meaningful intervention. I will grant you that the word ‘yet’ could go at the end of the previous sentence, but I’ve not seen enough (yet) to add that word.
The current blend of players/tactics/style/coaching isn't producing results, and you don't have to be a genius to figure out that 99% of the time when that happens, the scapegoat is the same. Typically I think mid-season changes reek of throwing in the towel on the season. In this case however, with 3 quarters of the league season and all of the Challenge Cup left, I think something has to change. I hope Louisville reels off 10 wins in row, but that is a dream based on hope and not an expectation based on the current reality.
As for this match, Chicago is below Louisville in the table, but only by goal difference, and this early in the season that is really no difference at all. On paper, they are the perfect team to start a winning run. However, since I’m sure that even if you are still with me, you are probably “hate reading” at this point, I will go ahead and bring up the 0-4 drubbing at the “Fill the Fam” match last season and also remind you that Louisville's first two players ever Savanah McCaskill and Yuki Nagasato love scoring against Louisville.
I believe that Louisville is entirely capable of winning this match. I am also sure that they are also entirely capable of losing it by multiple goals.
There is no more time left for improved play without improved results.
