Curtains
Photo by Elizabeth Shaw
The full color version of the photo above (in poster size) hangs in the office at my house, so you can assume that it is the picture I look at the most during workdays. It reminds me of the delayed start, horrible weather, and low expectations I had that day. However, in the picture…joy…utter joy. That wasn’t even the best game against North Carolina this year! It is moment frozen in time and Racing led 1-0 in a match that they would draw 1-1. In and of itself, it is still a great moment. It is full of hope and possibility. Again, it was a dreary day and a disappointing outcome, but in that moment, all was right with the world for the Racing players on the pitch.
Racing accomplished much this season, and you can find my piece on the State of Louisville website in a few days where I outline those accomplishments. This post is more forward looking, but I wanted to stop first and remember a special season full of special moments. The goal depicted above was the first of the season, so it is special in that way. It also secured a point, and we know that in the end every point ended up mattering.
My first post of the season declared my restated intent and ultimately allowed space for my wife Elizabeth to express herself in her wit and photography. I also set the parameters for my writing by ‘boxing myself in” basically requiring myself, however tenuously, to incorporate an epigraph from The Wire and a line or two from Paddy McAloon into my analysis of the most recent match. I could say that the original intention of this was to focus me, but in reality, it was to make me not lose interest in what I was sure was going to be a bad team and long season. As the season extended it was a challenge, but never one that I couldn’t overcome. The thing that I noticed most of all was that almost all of the epigraphs were “downers” and the lyrics I had preselected were the melancholier ones.
This was all due to expectations and those expectations were blown out of the water. I already have in my mind how this might differ next year, and I might restrict myself to a single album. I have one in mind, but I am pretty sure that there are enough dark and light elements to cover the gamut of emotions next season. I guess, my point is that I am planning for next year and I am sure Racing is too.
Let me start again by saying that Racing is in a decent position to start the year because they have something that they really haven’t really had before: a General Manager with a coherent strategy.
I don’t spend a ton of time talking about Caitlyn Milby and that is probably due to her clear and demonstrable competence. She has done an excellent job quietly and efficiently without much fuss. She got extensions done on Racing’s most key players and Racing only has a handful of players that have been contributors this season and are out of contract (Borges and DiGrande topping that list if my data is up to date). I would like to see Ary return based on her performance at the tail end of the season. DiGrande has been reliable and would be welcome if both parties agree.
This may seem harsh, but everyone else is expendable in my opinion. I would love to have the 2021-2024 version of Bethany Balcer, but who knows if that player still exists. Other than the three I mentioned, I don’t think there is much point in extending anyone’s stay in Louisville. I think Katie Lund needs to move on and should be successful on the right team. Maddie Pokorny would be fine as a last player on a roster, but we can’t assume she came back from injury the same player she was before it.
Caitlyn Milby’s to-do list for the offseason is likely:
At least one clinical striker: Racing’s lack of finishing was on stark display all season, but the best microcosm was the penalty shootout in the playoff match against Washington. Balcer went first and buried hers. None of the others were close. This season, Racing had seven “attackers” with more than 1000 minutes. Only Emma Sears had a “goals scored” number higher than her xG. Louisville was in the bottom 3 in the league in G-xG (goals scored minus expected goals) behind Bay and a surprisingly poor finishing Orlando team, who didn’t have a single attacker whose goals scored was higher than her xG. For anyone ruing the loss of Reilyn Turner, let me just share that she returned 5 goals on an 8.41 xG, so building a time machine for that trade doesn’t solve this particular problem.
Center back and midfield depth: Center back depth has been an issue from day 1 with Racing and this definitely isn’t the worst shape the club has ever been in, but you would like to see your “next best” center back sitting on your bench instead of being on the pitch already. For some reason known only to Bev, Petersen found herself on the bench in the last few matches after having started most of the season. Theoretically you could look to her as a utility defender, but I think you need at least one more nominal center back on the squad that Bev can trust. Who knows what the status of DeMelo will be going forward, but if the club loses Ary and Digrande they are in deep, deep trouble in the midfield. I can’t imagine not signing a free agent or two here. I think Bev needs to figure out what she wants this midfield to be in the future because it could go all kinds of different directions at the moment.
Roster sanity: I might lose my mind if there are 5 keepers in the team photo next season. Racing struggled to keep 3 healthy all at once, so I get it, but the goal should be to roster 3 and be done with it. The other thing that might make be lose my mind is any more matches with less than the allotted 9 players on the bench. In the playoff match, Racing once again went with 8 on the bench. There wasn’t anyone available that they could have put on the bench (maybe except for Lund, but that wouldn’t have helped). Some players definitely won’t be back. I want insult them or your intelligence because you know who they are. They were too many unproductive players on the roster this season, and that cannot continue to be the case going forward if Racing is serious about making the next step.
There are a few other things that Racing needs to sort out on the tactical side. The first one is the ability to convert defending into possession when it is prudent. This season Racing was decent on counters and was always looking to score quickly once they obtained possession. I don’t disagree with that. However, in key points in matches they need to figure out a way to keep possession for possession’s sake. Too many times, late in matches Racing was either unwilling or incapable of managing possession in their own half to try to move forward, especially with a lead. We have all seen teams settle into a shell for the last 10 minutes of a match and that is just how things are done. I do see other teams at least try to work the ball out of danger instead of consistently playing it long to nobody only to see it return to danger immediately. Several matches jump to mind but the Gotham away match is fresh in mine. Racing may not ever be a team that scores by playing through their opponent, nor do I think they should try to. However, in some cases, simply having the ball at your feet for a few seconds is enough to pick out the next pass and try to relieve some of the pressure.
I also think Racing is lacking in the number of technical staff that they employ. Carm Moscato left in the middle of the season and almost immediately Racing’s attacking prowess suffered. They recovered some of it at the end of the season, but there was definitely a dip right after she left. Racing’s main staff is effective, but I think they could definitely do with an additional staff member to go along with Carm’s replacement.
I think the biggest challenge will be avoid settling for what worked this season. Every other team will look to improve and if Racing doesn’t get better, expect them to finish lower than they did this season. Weber and Fischer are serviceable center forwards. That doesn’t mean that their jobs should be safe or comfortable. Taylor Flint should have someone breathing down her neck that wants her starting job so bad she can taste it. Emma Sears should come into training camp with a target to score 5 left-footed goals next season. Hase and O’Kane should be fighting for every minute that they get and consider themselves fortunate if they get the minutes that the got this season. Arin Wright and Janine Sonis should be losing sleep over the players pushing them for their spots. Nobody should be comfortable going into next season. The period of moderate expectations ended in Washington.
