Expansion Draft Analysis
Now that Racing and the NWSL as a whole have entered the offseason, the upcoming drafts will surely be on the minds of all fans. The recently renamed KC Current will only be concerned with the college draft on December 18th, but the rest of the teams will have an expansion draft on December 16th to navigate. Racing has protection from Angel City FC through the Christen Press trade, but the newly christened San Diego Wave FC can still select a player from Racing. The closer the draft gets, the lower the odds that Racing can work out a deal, so I wanted to take a look at who Racing might protect and who might get selected in an expansion draft. The expansion draft will last nine rounds, basically allowing the two expansion teams to select a player each from the nine teams who are included in the draft process unless the teams have negotiated protection like Racing and ACFC.
This also gives me a chance to do a quasi-roster review for the season. I am going to go through the roster in numerical order and give my opinion on:
1. Reasons to keep the player on the roster
2. Reasons to not keep the player on the roster
3. Percent chance that the player will be on the opening day roster in 2022 (ranging between >99% and <1%
4. Will Racing protect the player in the Expansion draft?
I will start the process by reviewing the three 2021 draft picks that returned to college for their senior years: Kirsten Davis (F), Parker Goins (F), and Emily Smith (D). According to my interpretation of the draft rules, San Diego could select the rights to any of these three players, so they are worthy of a quick examination.
Kirsten Davis
Reasons to keep: Kirsten had 14 goals at a rate of .74 goals/game during the 2021 season for Texas Tech. She has been a consistent scorer for Texas Tech for her entire career.
Reasons to not keep: Racing have quite a few forwards on their roster, and between Davis and Goins, Parker Goins seems to be more flexible in her position.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I give her a 95% chance of being on the roster due to Racing spending a second-round draft pick on her (13th overall) and her proven goal-scoring record, although anything close to her college production would be amazing.
Protect? No. I don’t think San Diego will pick any of the 3 drafts picks mentioned here. They will have enough youth. They will be looking for experience.
Parker Goins
Reasons to keep: Kirsten had 11 goals and 13 assists during her senior season through 23 games and the Arkansas Razorbacks are still active in the NCAA tournament as of today.
Reasons to not keep: None. I expect her to be a regular player, if not a starter.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: As with Davis, I will say that there is a 95% chance that she makes the squad. Again, Racing spent a third-round pick on her (21st overall), so there is incentive to give her a chance, which I think she will take.
Protect? No. See above.
Emily Smith
Reasons to keep: Led the Cal Bears in minutes and was a captain for 3 straight years. She was selected All-Conference in every season, and first team All-Pac-12 in 2019. Racing needs defenders.
Reasons to not keep: Will have to fight for a roster spot, so if she makes the team, it will be on merit.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I put her at around 80%. Racing are not all that deep in defense, so I think that increases her chances.
Protect? No. See above.
#1 Michelle Betos
Reasons to keep: She is team captain, a proven leader, and a great shot stopper. She organizes the defense and is a proven high-level NWSL goalie.
Reasons to not keep: Katie Lund. Lund looks the part of an NWSL goalie. I can’t imagine that Betos can keep her fully on the bench for much longer. I expect the goalkeeper competition to be fully open for next season.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think there is an 85% chance she is on the roster next year. Racing will not protect 2 goalkeepers and may not protect any. San Diego could do a lot worse than having Michelle Betos lead a new team. She will be 34 when the season starts, so Racing may count on San Diego selecting a younger keeper that can be on the roster for a long time.
Protect? If I were Racing, I would do everything in my power to work out a deal with San Diego, so that they don’t have to submit a protection list to the league. That hasn’t happened yet. If I were in charge I would protect her, but my guess is that Racing rolls the dice and leaves her unprotected.
#2 Lauren Milliet
Reasons to keep: Racing is thin in the midfield and she can play in multiple positions. She had a solid season in 2021 and is still young enough to show improvement year over year.
Reasons to not keep: Racing would love to draft Jaelin Howell who is a consensus top two pick in the draft. If they get her, she will almost certainly start in the midfield. That would severely limit Milliet’s chances to start, but not necessarily her appearances.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: With Racing being so limited in midfield currently, I think there is a very good change she will return. Let’s call it 70%.
Protect? No. Nothing against Milliet, but the team could find a replacement for her skills, other than her ability to do a flip throw.
#3 Erin Simon
Reasons to keep: She can play at both left and right back and has lots of experience.
Reasons to not keep: As other defenders got healthy, mainly Julia Ashley, she saw her minutes limited. She also only played 90 minutes 3 times, compared to Emily Fox who played 90 minutes 18 times and Neely Martin who played 90 minutes 9 times.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: My guess is that she won’t be back, but will be given every chance during camp. I put her at 45% to return.
Protect? No. Racing has better options in defense.
#4 Gemma Bonner
Reasons to keep: She is Racing’s best central defender. Case closed.
Reasons to not keep: None. She will almost certainly be on the team.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she is a lock, so >99%.
Protect? Yes. It’s a no-brainer.
#5 CeCe Kizer
Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s most consistent offensive threat all season.
Reasons to not keep: None. Unless a team want to make a ridiculous trade offer to Racing, she will be here in 2022.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Again, I think she is a lock, so >99%.
Protect? Yes. I don’t even think it’s a slightly difficult decision.
#7 Savannah McCaskill
Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s engine for most of the season. She had a few goals and a few assists. She played just about every minute she possibly could.
Reasons to not keep: This isn’t going to be a popular opinion, but she is a bit of a square peg. She isn’t a natural midfielder, but that is where she played just about all season. I wouldn’t play her at forward based on what I expect the roster to be in 2022. She also does tend to get caught in possession from time to time.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: All of that being said, there is virtually no chance that she isn’t on the roster. Just because a player doesn’t have a natural position doesn’t mean they aren’t a good player. Sometimes being a square peg is a nightmare for the opposing team as well.
Protect? Yes. It’s another easy-ish decision, but I would probably hesitate to call it a no-brainer.
#8 Freja Olofsson
Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s most consistent midfielder. In an upcoming piece for the Beautiful Game Network, Bekki Morgan and I will share a little bit of our conversation with her. Here is a tiny little spoiler: she probably would prefer to play a little further forward.
Reasons to not keep: Almost none. Taylor Otto had a great cameo at the end of the season, so losing her would not be a complete disaster, but she should definitely be on the team next year.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: All but a virtual lock. I put it at 98%.
Protect? I might try to sneak her through unprotected. I think she is more valuable to Racing than she would be for San Diego. In the end I think I would leave her unprotected just because I don’t think San Diego would spend an international roster spot on her. Some of this expansion draft process is a poker match with the other teams.
#9 Ebony Salmon
Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s leading scorer, and has a ton of upside.
Reasons to not keep: I think she would ultimately like to play in the WSL in England, so she probably won’t resign for a second deal after her initial stay in Louisville, but you never know. She will continue to get starts and minutes, but I think the competition among the forwards for playing time in 2022 will be pretty high.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be here. >99%
Protect? Yes. San Diego would snatch her up in a heartbeat.
#10 Nadia Nadim
Reasons to keep: Was Racing’s best player during her all too brief time on the field in Louisville.
Reasons to not keep: None, but anytime you have to recover from a serious injury, things could change.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be almost certainly be here unless she has a setback in her recovery. It’s not quite a certainty due to that so let’s say 99%.
Protect? Yes. See Salmon
#11 Emily Fox
Reasons to keep: Too many to mention, so I won’t.
Reasons to not keep: None whatsoever.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: >99%.
Protect? Yes. She is the first name on the protection list.
#12 Sinclair Miramontez
Reasons to keep: Racing don’t have a ton of defensive options.
Reasons to not keep: She probably isn't quite good enough to be on the roster next year if Racing add any more defenders.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She surely will be somewhere else next season, <1%
Protect? No.
#13 Emina Ekic
Reasons to keep: Even though I’m sure she didn’t get as much playing time as she wanted, she has shown potential when fully healthy.
Reasons to not keep: Racing are deep in attack, but her connection to the city make her that much more important.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I don’t think she is a lock. If Racing don’t protect her, San Diego might pick her and either keep her or make Racing pay dearly to get her back. I’d say it’s 95%
Protect? No. She is number 10 or 11 on a 9 player list.
#14 Nearly Martin
Reasons to keep: She was a really useful utility defender after making the roster as a trialist. She seemed steadier as her minutes increased.
Reasons to not keep: She isn’t unreplaceable and probably isn’t a long-term starter.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Like Olofsson, I think she is more valuable to Racing than she would be for another team. She will have to make the team on merit during training camp, but she’s done that before and will easily do it again in my opinion. I put her chances of returning at 90%
Protect? No.
#15 Brooke Hendrix
Reasons to keep: Racing don’t have ton of height, so she is one of the better options for a header in the box. She also scored a very memorable goal in Racing’s first match.
Reasons to not keep: After that goal, it’s hard to remember her distinguishing herself. Once Bonner arrived, she found herself out of the team on several occasions. Even when Bonner was out, Martin was preferred at CB.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: A new coach might have a new take on her, but realistically I put it as 5%.
Protect? No.
#16 Julia Ashley
Reasons to keep: She showed enough in the last 4 matches to merit a full shot on the team when healthy. Having her on the team allows for Fox to play in a different position if needed.
Reasons to not keep: She will have to earn a roster spot during training camp, so if she doesn’t show her best there, she may be a casualty to the numbers.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she will come in hungry for a chance to prove herself and will easily make the team. 85%
Protect? No, but I did consider it. I think she has real potential.
#17 Yuki Nagasato
Reasons to keep: She’s Yuki. She is valuable on and off the field. Is the most calming presence on the field in my opinion.
Reasons to not keep: She is closer to the end of her career than the beginning and isn’t as quick as she once was.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Nobody wants to exist in a Yuki-less Louisville next year. >99%
Protect? Back during the summer, I would have called this a tough one, but now I think she is too valuable not to protect, so yes.
#18 Kaleigh Riehl
Reasons to keep: She was a solid performer at CB and those are tough to find.
Reasons to not keep: I don’t really see any to be honest.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: If she isn’t picked by San Diego, she will be here, so 90%.
Protect? This is the toughest call on the list, but I say Merrick gets protected over Riehl. San Diego’s signing of Abby Dahlkemper might decrease the worry associated with not protecting her a little bit.
#19 Taylor Otto
Reasons to keep: As with Milliet and Olofsson, Racing need to keep their existing midfielders.
Reasons to not keep: She didn’t see much playing time, so she’s difficult to evaluate. Her reputation at UNC probably makes up for that.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be almost certain to return, so 95%.
Protect? Yes, or at least I would. I rate her and Olofsson as virtually identical and the fact that Taylor wouldn’t cost San Diego an international spot means that she will need protecting.
#20 Cheyna Matthews
Reasons to keep: Was terrific off the bench as a change of pace substitute striker.
Reasons to not keep: She could end up being a victim of the numbers game at forward, and might relish a chance to get regular starts somewhere else. I don’t think Racing would hold her back if she wanted to try a new team.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: This one is a coin flip. I think if Cheyna wants to return to Louisville, she will be here.
Protect? No. San Diego might take her. In fact, if I was predicting the full expansion draft, this is the pick I think San Diego would use.
#21 Shelby Money
Reasons to keep: It’s entirely possible that Racing loses either Betos or Lund, so I think she will be here as at least the 3rd keeper.
Reasons to not keep: She will surely have to beat out a few trialists in training camp.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: This one is a coin flip, too and will depend on how she does in camp.
Protect? No.
#22 Katie McClure
Reasons to keep: She showed real progress in the last quarter of the season.
Reasons to not keep: The numbers game at forward puts her at risk.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she beats back some of the competition and makes the squad, so 70%
Protect? No.
#23 Katie Lund
Reasons to keep: She is tall, agile and already a folk hero at Lynn Family Stadium. If she wins the competition in camp, Racing can pencil her in at goalkeeper for several years.
Reasons to not keep: She isn’t Michelle Betos. If she doesn’t win the starting keeper competition this year, Racing might be able to placate her with a few more matches, but she needs to start somewhere in the league soon. Racing drafted her ahead of Betos in the expansion draft last year, so they ultimately think she is the answer in goal, but I don’t know how long she will be willing to wait.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think there is an 85% chance she is on the roster next year, just like Betos.
Protect? No. I think Racing rolls the dice and doesn’t protect either her or Betos hoping that they can keep both, but knowing that if they lose one, that they have the other.
#26 Addisyn Merrick
Reasons to keep: Racing selected her #1 overall in the 2020 NWSL Expansion Draft. In her brief time on the field, she showed why they did. Reliable CBs aren’t easy to find.
Reasons to not keep: She spent just about all of last year injured. I think Racing were toying with the idea of a back 3 until she got injured. She was at the NWSL Final without the walking boot that she had been wearing recently, so hopefully she’s ready to go in 2022.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Racing think a lot of her, so they won’t be willing to let her go without seeing what she can do on the field. >99%
Protect? I would and I think Racing will too.
#27 Vanessa Kara
Reasons to keep: If you read my article on Kara on the Beautiful Game Network, you know that she is a fighter and I would never count her out.
Reasons to not keep: Numbers. Vanessa got virtually no meaningful playing time and Davis and Goins will surely be even more competition for playing time.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I can’t see a realistic path to her making the roster in 2022. <1%
Protect? No.
#33 Jorian Baucom
Reasons to keep: Has shown that she can score in cup competitions. She seems to like to press in the team’s preferred style.
Reasons to not keep: She is going to be a victim of the numbers at forward. I felt like she and McClure were battling each other for playing time all year. If you had asked me in late August, I would have said that Racing would have kept Jorian over Katie, but Katie’s late season production changed my mind. I will say this. If she makes the roster through all of the competition during camp, she will have earned more minutes than she got this year.
Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think its low but not minuscule, so 20%.
Protect? No.
This means my projected protection list in order of certainty is:
1. Fox
2. Nadim
3. Bonner
4. Salmon
5. Kizer
6. McCaskill
7. Nagasato
8. Merrick
9. Otto
I feel absolutely certain about 1-6. As for 7-9 I could see Lund being protected over Otto, Riehl over Merrick, or Ekic protected over Yuki. Hopefully as soon as I publish this Racing work out a trade with San Diego.
