Gotham 0 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Part of the reason that coaches like to look at a team’s performance over the score line is that sometimes the score line is deceptive (or at least perceived to be). Yesterday in Gotham Coach Björkegren admitted that 1-1 probably would have been a more accurate and fair result. I don’t disagree, but Lori Lindsey’s ridiculous assertation that Gotham could have been ahead at the midpoint of the 2nd half really annoyed me.
I’m not going to relitigate my problems with xG, but one of the ways that I think it is misleading is when it’s added up and shown as a total xG for a match. More than any other team sport, the score line in soccer dictates the way a match is played. You will never be able to convince me that if Katie Lund doesn’t make that excellent save on Mewis’ free kick and the score becomes 1-1 that the remainder of the match plays out in the exact same way as it did. The fact that Gotham trailed for over 75 minutes dictated the way they played for those minutes. The truth is that you take different chances when you trail in a match vs. when you lead or are even. However, if you looked at the matches final xG (1.21 to .99 in favor of Gotham) and determined that Racing were “lucky” to win, I wouldn’t argue with that analysis in this instance. Lori Lindsey’s statement about Gotham potentially being ahead based on the chances they had is the type of “analysis” that I really loathe. Once a chance is gone and the score line doesn’t change, the game somewhat resets itself back to equilibrium. It is impossible to score the second goal before you score the first. I know what she was trying to convey, but it was some hypothetical alternate reality where one of those shots goes in. However, in this alternate reality none of the events are the same after the equalizer goes in. I jokingly gave Katie Lund’s goalpost a 10 rating in my post yesterday, but we all know that the goal posts and the ball don’t have memories. Only the players and fans do. Gotham players hit the woodwork 5 times yesterday, yet it didn’t matter to the ball. The ball will only go where the players and the elements dictate. When a shot hits the goal posts and bounces out, it is the fans and players that feel like the ball “owes” them a more fortuitous bounce next time. The ball feels nothing.
Racing continues their habit of playing a really excellent stretch of football for about 10-15 minutes in the match. One of the positives of this habit in the last few matches has been their ability to score during these stretches. I have witnessed many matches where teams have even longer stretches of excellent play, but can’t quite get the goal. The team has to be commended for converting while their are in control of the match. The other encouraging trend is the ability to keep up the excellent play after getting the goal. Racing doesn’t immediately sit on a lead, especially when getting the lead early. I thought they were always looking to get that second goal until about the 85th or so minute. The next step is to turn these 10-15 stretches into 15-20 minute stretches and to put teams away. I think they could become capable of this, but we will let them learn to walk before they learn to run.
People like all kinds of different types of goals. Some people like “bangers”, whatever that is supposed to indicate, and some people like goals scored from set pieces. Each of those have their charms, but give me a goal like Racing scored yesterday over a long-distance strike or free kick goal everyday. The move started from Lund and then went straight to Fox. Fox easily turned her defender and the move was kickstarted from there. Emily Fox is a cheat code and it is almost unfair to her opponents. She is visibly so much better than almost all of her opponents. It might be more exciting to have your best athlete in an attacking position, but it is likely much more valuable to have her in her current defensive role. The fact that she can recover so quickly allows Racing to play the way they do. The rest of the goal was simple passing to open teammates. It is football at its simplest and most beautiful. None of the passes in the build-up were difficult or risky. The ball moved quickly and efficiently. None of the touches were heroic and in fact Milliet might have even fortuitously mishit the final touch. I will happily code this one “Move started with goalkeeper from the back” along with my favorite goal from last season.
I try to wait until at least all of the teams have played a third of their matches before I put too much stock into the NWSL table. More than any other league I have ever followed, the NWSL’s early season table is subject tremendous volatility due to the competitiveness of the league. This year the margins could be even finer. My advice if you want to monitor Racing’s early season progress is to monitor the percent of available points taken to date. Right now, Racing has taken 8 out of 15 for 53% which should put them comfortably in the mix to finish in the top 6 places. Staying above 50% in that metric probably merits the team a playoff berth. As of right now, 5 teams are above that number.
