Racing v KC Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Does any else find it odd that Kansas City’s team name is “KC NWSL"? It would be like the Washington Football Team being called, ”Washington NFL". Hey, that's actually an improvement so ignore my previous comment. If you read my previous post with Thad Bell, you have a little background on KC's situation. They had a team, it moved to Utah, and then moved back to KC. The original NWSL team, FC Kansas City was quite successful on the field, if not off. Anyway, you could definitely make the argument that KC's roster is the weakest in the league. On the flip slide, it would be a real mistake to overlook this team.
According to recent statistical evaluations of their performances they have been improving. It's oddly similar to how Racing's statisical performances have been improving. However, KC only won 2 points in July and Racing only 1. Improvement is a funny thing. Not all improvement is created equal. Moving your performance from terrible to simply bad is improvement and so is going from excellent to world class. What I think we have in KC and Racing are two teams whose statistical performances really had nowhere to go but up.
Neither team scores much, so the first goal of the match will be huge, that is if either team actually scores. KC and Racing opened their season against each other in a 0-0 draw. I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that match, because both squads are quite a bit different now. Racing is definitely more dangerous now, but they will have to turn that into goals in order to start to collect more points.
Not to go on too much of a digression, but I am really starting to have issues with this league’s statistics. If you check multiple sources, you almost always get different numbers. It's not only the complicated calculations like xG, but things like shots and possession differ as well. Don't get me wrong, they're close and I guess the NWSL site has the official stats, but it makes me nervous that numbers get thrown around without being properly sourced. As a public service announcement I guess I want to say to take any statistics you see with a grain of salt. I have made a decision not to quote specific numbers in my preview columns and will use the statistics that Racing publishes after matches as my statistical source for post match analysis. I would challenge other members of the media to be transparent with their numbers as well. I don't think anyone is intentionally using incorrect or misleading numbers, but fully mature leagues have a much more trustworthy way of communicating stats through official channels. One quick word about xG. There definitely isn't an official source for this number. Really smart and well-intentioned people have come up with some very good models, they just haven't calibrated with each other. Some of the xG models I have seen are hilariously different from others. None of this means you shouldn't pay attention to xG. I only caution you to check the source.
If I haven't bored you to sleep with the nerdy math talk, it's time for a prediction. To be nerdy in another way I will quote Star Wars and say “I have a bad feeling about this.” Based on absolutely nothing statistical and nothing really I have seen in Racing's recent play I am saying Racing loses this one by 2 goals to 1. I hate the concept that anything is “due" to happen. I don't really believe in karma or what goes around comes around, but sometimes our subconscious does detect things that our waking consciousness doesn’t. For some reason, I get the feeling that Racing is overlooking this match. Maybe it’s fan expectations, or maybe it’s simply the fact that the team hasn't won in over month and are somehow “owed" a win. Maybe I am trying a reverse jinx, which I obviously don't believe in either. Anyway, here's to eating crow for Sunday dinner…hopefully.
