Louisville v Houston Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Madeline Mullenbach
It's Louisville vs. Houston for the 4th time this season, and both teams will be looking to get all 3 points. I personally think that while they would never admit it Houston has pulled the plug on this season and would see any last ditch playoff push as a bonus to their season. Louisville has great incentive to come out early and try to put Houston away before they get any momentum.
Fatigue seemed to be the word of the day during Wednesday's media availability. I would agree that fatigue played a large part in Louisville's performance on Saturday but they will have to shake that off against Houston. As for the “new manager bump”, that is really explained by what happens right before the sacking of the previous manager which is usually a below average run of form. Naturally the form with the new manager will return to the mean, but the best study I have seen shows that new managers get about 1.3 points per match compared to average of 1.0 points per match prior to their hiring. It's not nothing, but it isn't definitive either. In the NWSL specifically, the margins are so fine that almost any result can be seen a “noise” in the context of the season. Louisville hasn't been great at creating goals through incisive ball movement recently (their 3 September goals coming from corners and the mistake made by the Reign), so they definitely want to get going from that perspective if they are to make a playoff push.
I am a little caught between two minds when I think about how the NWSL should have handled the scheduling once they knew the four Challenge Cup semifinalists. Part of me wishes that they would have pushed back the Louisville/Houston match to Saturday or Sunday once they new that Louisville could potentially be playing on super short rest on Saturday against the Courage. On the other hand, nobody likes a last minute change in the schedule that could effect the fans’ availability to attend a match. Therefore, we will just have to live with a Friday evening kickoff even though Louisville would probably have appreciated an extra day or two of rest.
There was a small tidbit that I forgot to include from my Post Match Thoughts piece on the Challenge Cup Final. I got the chance to meet Arsenal legend and quadruple winner Leanne Sanderson at the match. We chatted briefly as I kept her up to date on Arsenal's Champions League qualifier which they ultimately lost on penalties to both of our chagrin. Anyway, she made it a point to say goodbye to me before we left the stadium. She is an absolute treasure and I will have very strong words for anyone who has anything other that glowing things to say about her.
Louisville will be in a position for the next three league rounds to play either the first or second match of the weekend. It will give Louisville the chance to put up points early in the weekend. Hopefully they take advantage of this and post 3 points every match until the final one in San Diego where there will be (thankfully) simultaneous kickoffs to end the league season. Just like the conventional wisdom on penalty shootouts, you like to “go first” to out pressure on your opponents, but run the risk of having the tables turned on you if you don't take advantage.
