Orlando v Louisville Preview
“There is a time to play, and there’s a time to win.” - Ahmad Rashad
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville enters the match against Orlando on Saturday as the only remaining winless team in the NWSL. Louisville is better than Orlando. Louisville should win this match. I hesitate to call the match a “must win” match although I truly believe it is, so instead I will call it a “Show Me” match. I need this team to show me that it is ready to win.
Louisville has put on good performances for sections of time, and I guess I will concede that even in the Portland match they played well in sections. However, they have yet to play well in “winning time”. If you recognize the quote from the top of the article, you understand what winning time is. If not here you go. I think a large portion of the fan base is still in “making progress mode” or “playing well mode”. I’ve moved on to winning time.
While playing well and winning are not mutually exclusive, they aren’t two overlapping circles in the Venn diagram either. By my recollection, Louisville has played worse football than their opponents and won exactly once in their entire history…this match. In that match Louisville still did one thing really well and that was defend in front of the goal. Therefore, you shouldn’t rely on playing poorly and getting a result. Then again, playing their best match this season against the OL Reign didn’t yield more than a point. They failed during winning time.
I am all for Louisville playing better football than their opponents for large stretches of their matches, but another switch needs to flip. Truly great teams win matches even when they aren’t playing well and this in my opinion is down to mentality and the habit of winning. If you really think about winning in this league, I think teams have to manage and understand the other components of a match in addition to how they are playing.
The scoreline: I am usually pretty open to new ideas, but nobody will ever convince me that scoreline doesn’t dictate play. I will use the Portland match as an example, and then promise not to ever bring it up again. If you’re down 1-0 after a few minutes and then “play well” for a large portion of the match before you fall behind 2-0, that performance DOES NOT MATTER, if you are serious about winning. It matters if you are looking for improvement, I will grant you that, but I believe in this team and don’t need to see any more improvement that doesn’t translate to results. I need to see winning. The only thing that matters is getting a goal back and not giving up more. Good opponents are going to gear down and go into game management mode which may look like you performing better but is also designed to minimize the risk of you scoring. By the way, Louisville gave a good example of this during the OL Reign match (until they didn’t) but missed the next part.
Mentality: Winning teams either don’t have huge lapses in concentration or know how not to compound them. If you are ahead in a match, you should NEVER concede a penalty. It’s borderline unforgivable, if you want to become a winner. It happens all the time in soccer, even with good teams and it drives me crazy. Make your opponent beat you, don’t beat yourself. It’s a lesson still not learned in Louisville. Playing well in stretches only takes concentration during those stretches. Winning takes 90 plus minutes of it.
The Officials: You play your opponent, but you also play the pitch, the crowd, the weather and the officials. You can sometimes plan for the three other things, but sometimes the officials are hard to adjust to. I don’t think the officials have cost Louisville points in any match this season and possibly ever. I do think that Louisville doesn’t do a great job of getting the officials to call the match fairly. I know some people absolutely detest “flopping”, but I am going to say this somewhat tongue-in-cheek: officials are basically cowards. They will give 100 fouls for a player who feigns contact or goes down too easy for every 1 yellow card they give for simulation. It takes no courage to give a touch foul to a player that flops. It takes courage to issue a card for simulation. That reality makes flopping a low risk, high reward venture. To not take advantage of it at the right times is giving away an advantage to your opponent who is willing to do so. I will reiterate again; I am proudly a terrible sport.
Winning time: It’s typically the last few minutes, but not always. If you take full advantage of the three components above, any time you’re in the lead is winning time. I believe in Louisville’s ability to fight back when they are down and pull out a draw that feels like a win. The numbers give me no confidence in their ability to protect a lead. Here is last year’s performance when scoring first:
Second worst in the league. Now this year so far…
Tied for worse with their upcoming opponent Orlando. Other teams get wins consistently when they score first. Louisville has to start doing so soon or it will be another disappointing season, perhaps the most disappointing one yet. Score first and win. It’s the recipe for easy success and it shows you understand winning time.
Now I realize this is a lot of negativity for a preview, but this next match has to be a win. I will prepare you ahead of time. If it is a draw, expect poor player ratings. There is no excuse not to win this match. If somehow Orlando comes out and plays well and forces Louisville into a subpar performance, I am not letting the players off the hook or use the excuse of missing DeMelo. It’s winning time, or else.
