Orlando v Racing Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Chris Humphrey
Racing’s all-time record is now 17W-29D-28L. For the first time since Racing drew in its inaugural NWSL league match the club has more draws than losses in its overall league historical record. Congratulations, I guess. This year’s vintage of Racing Louisville is still in the unique (but not as helpful as it could have been) situation of never having trailed this season. If Racing are going to stay in the playoff hunt this season, they will surely need to top their best ever return of 6 league wins last season. That means that they will likely need a win percentage of at least 30% in their remaining matches. That doesn’t seem like an impossible or even improbable hill to climb, but they would have to demonstrate form better than any other Racing squad has ever consistently shown. I am a big believer in “form”. Put more mathematically, I would never expect (but also never rule out) a run of data in a time series to which I hadn’t witnessed a similar pattern before. However, I would say that winning at least 6 more matches is about equally likely to happen as to not happen. It’s still early in the season but based on what I have seen so far, I wouldn’t rule out a playoff run but I also wouldn’t plan on one yet either.
Speaking of plans, I get the sense from talking to Bev Yanez over the last few months that she doesn’t necessarily like to “plan” for adversity. I asked her on Wednesday, if she was “anxious” to see how the team responded when they inevitably trail in a match at some point. She flipped her answer on me and said that she focused on putting the team in positions to not be trailing. She likes the positive “mindset” by asking players to be “brave” when they go into matches. Let’s be frank here. Racing hasn’t really faced any real adversity this season. They sure have faced disappointment a few times, but that is different than adversity. The problem is that when you don’t face adversity, sometimes you mistake disappointment for adversity. I think there is a clear difference in mentality between “holding on” to a lead and “fighting back” to equalize or even overtake an opponent. Whether you like it or not, you build memory based on your experiences. Racing definitely has quite a bit of collective memory built up around not holding on to leads. In their history they really only have a small number of instances of fighting back to win from behind. I’m not saying they can’t do it and if somehow, they go through a continued stretch never trailing, I would put my money on getting more wins. At some point they will fall behind, and if 0-0 is the scoreline where you see the team’s true style, 0-1 is the scoreline where you first start to see their true mentality.
I believe that there is a pretty good chance that neither DeMelo nor Howell play on Sunday in Orlando. Luckily Racing has the depth to overcome this. I have to think DeMelo is closer to returning than Howell. Howell’s removal seemed semi-precautionary, but repeated leg muscle injuries are hard to manage. I have full confidence in DiGrande and maybe just slightly less confidence in Fischer, but she is certainly capable of slotting in for DeMelo on a good day. Dropping Borges into midfield is an option too. A less experienced bench means we could see more minutes for Motlhalo.
