Pre-Season Roster Analysis
Pickett at her introductory interview
Louisville appears (for now) to have settled on its pre-season roster with the addition of Uchenna Kanu from Tigres of Liga MX Femenil. As part of the transfer, Riley Parker was sent to the Tigres until the end of the Clausura part of the season. Many Latin American sports leagues use Apertura and Clausura tournaments to split the seasons in half, with Apertura meaning “opening” and Clausura meaning “closing”. If you recall the Women’s Cup from August last season, you will remember that Club América looked to be in mid-season form in their matches, which they obviously were.
There has been quite a lot of buzz around the incoming players to Louisville with Jeff Kassouf of the Equalizer saying that the club has made its case to have “the most interesting NWSL offseason roster build”. Many of the fans on Twitter are in pre-season ridiculous mode and predicting great things for the club. On the other hand, I have been called a “downer” and “pedantic to the point of erasing the fun of it” when it comes to avoiding hyperbole.
I do think this roster on the whole is better than the roster that ending the 2022 season. In fact, I am probably more bullish on the left side of the defense than most. The numbers (that I care about) say that both Pickett and Erceg are an upgrade over Fox and Bonner. Fox is a better defender but may never reach Pickett's offensive production. Erceg is an upgrade over Bonner, not as much as you might think, but still a clear one. I am less bullish on the incoming international talent. They may all turn out to be fantastic, but its one thing to perform in the Liga Mx and another to perform in the NWSL.
I am a true believer that “league” and “team” matter when evaluating players. Uchenna Kanu’s numbers are eye-popping, but the Mexican and Swedish leagues are not quite the NWSL. She may eventually score lots of goals for Louisville, but she should be given some time to acclimate and adjust. Ary Borges should be given that same learning curve. I believe that Thembi Kgatlana may follow the Wang Shuang curve in that Wang looked immediately to be NWSL ready based on her small sample size, but that also isn’t a guarantee. As for Elli Pikkujämsä, I would urge patience and caution because in her career she surely hasn’t faced the attacking power that the NWSL has to offer. However, if all 4 international players hit the ground running, it could be a special year in Louisville.
Roster Mathematics
By my count, there are 29 players schedules to be in pre-season camp. Beall and Bloomer count against the roster limit of 26, but won’t be in camp as they are finishing up their loans in the A League. That leaves 31 players competing for 26 spots on the initial roster. On the Roster Tracker I have Riley Parker listed as well bringing the total to 32. She could theoretically join the club after her loan expires in June (or extend it for the Apertura portion of the season). Let’s take a look at who is a lock to be on the opening match roster, and who might not make it.
Goalkeepers: (1 lock, 3 TBD, 1 Cut)
Katie Lund has the number 1 jersey, the NWSL single season save record, and a contract through 2025. She is a lock of locks. However, Bloomer, Beall, and Daugherty could all see transfers or loans. Hillary Beall is having an excellent season in the A League and captained Western United’s first nine matches. After a rough start, Jordyn Bloomer has turned things around and has kept 2 clean sheets in her last four matches. They both are too talented to be the 3rd goalkeeper on the roster. The team has a couple of options: transfer either Beall of Bloomer and keep Daugherty, or keep both Beall and Bloomer and cut Daugherty. The A League runs through April 30 and the summer transfer window is likely to open in June for all clubs, so it wouldn’t surprise me if a deal is made (or has already been made) to see one of them depart in the summer window. The team also has trialist Olivia Sekany on the pre-season roster, so she has a shot to beat out Daugherty and if the offers are good enough for both Beall and Bloomer, join Lund on the roster. My prediction: The club will carry (3) goalkeepers to start the season, but I am not willing to say which two will join Lund.
Defenders: (5 locks, 1 virtual lock, 4 TBD)
The four new defenders Pickett, Erceg, Pikkujämsä, and Monaghan are locks. Monaghan is so versatile, that she could play anywhere, but will likely be used on defense. Lester is a lock and I believe Satara Murray is as close as you can get without being guaranteed. The one thing working against her is that she could be gone for the World Cup break. She would be good cover for Pikkujämsä if she doesn’t make the trip. Holloway is at tremendous risk. She was never really given much of a look after her 2 frankly poor starts. She was only given 86 minutes after her two starts (which she didn’t finish) and 58 of those came in the disastrous 0-4 loss to the Red Stars in August. She is cautionary tale for a player switching leagues. Wyne who was signed as international replacement player faired better, but will be up against trialist Trinity Watson, and draft pick Bri Martinez. Prior to Pickett and Erceg joining I would have given the upper hand to Wyne, but with a little more stability I say Martinez could beat her out. In the end they both survive. My prediction: The club will carry (8) defenders to start the season, with Murray, Wyne and Martinez joining the locks.
Midfielders: (6 locks, 1 TBD)
This is probably the easiest section to predict. Howell, Milliet, Chidiac, DeMelo, Wang, Borges are locks. Taylor Malham is the only real debate, but Racing carried 7 midfielders for most of the season last year. My prediction: The club will carry (7) midfileders to start the season, with Malham making the team.
Forwards: (4 locks, and a ton of options)
This one is tricky. Kgatlana, Kanu, McDonald, and Nadim are locks, but Nadim and Kgatlana may not be fully match fit to start the season. I had Davis penciled in as the leading scorer at the beginning of pre-season, and now I’m not sure she is in the Starting XI. Davis and Ekic both could feasibly be loaned out if this wasn’t a World Cup season. In a way-too-soon prediction, I see Davis as an appealing option for an expansion team next year. There is value in having them both on the roster this year, so Davis and Ekic will easily make the cut. Now the difficult decision here is who makes it out of Goins, Kayla Fischer, and Jaydyn Edwards. It’s possible that all three do and Malham is cut with Goins being used in her true MF/F role. My prediction: The club will carry (8) forwards to start the season, with Goins’ flexibility winning out and the winner of the Fischer/Edwards competition making the team.
There is also Coack Björkegren’s stated desire for a small squad to contend with, but I say that he bites the bullet and carries 26, with an eye on the expansion draft next season.
