Racing 2 Dash 3 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
One of the older clichés in soccer is that a 2-0 lead is the worst lead. This is most definitely scientifically untrue, but Friday night proved why it is a cliché. After playing a fantastic first half, Racing looked shaken after the first Dash goal went into the net and never recovered. According to the stats, Racing scored on a couple of really low xG shots (which I disagree) and the Dash scored on one low xG shot and two fairly high ones. If you are tired of reading my xG rants, skip the next paragraph and rejoin after.
I defy anyone with a set of eyes to tell me that Jess McDonald’s opportunity and goal were more likely to go into the net vs. Kirsten Davis’ opportunity and goal. Davis benefited from a few things that I don’t think the xG model factors in. First, she won possession quickly, second she got off the shot before the keeper really had time to react, and finally the last defender (in this case not the keeper) wasn’t set to defend. People often act like I am uneducated and don’t understand math or statistics when I complain about xG. Let me once again reiterate…I believe in the statistic when applied to evaluate long term performance. I think it is sometimes woefully misleading when applied to describe a single shot. In aggregate and over time, the factors that xG doesn’t consider become irrelevant. Unfortunately, on the single data points it is those unaccounted-for factors that make a difference sometimes. The other thing that xG defenders don’t get, is that I am trying to help. I have worked with enough data scientists in my career to know that sometimes they are too busy defending their model to actually try to improve it (hilariously penalties are modeled at .7xG when 75% of them are converted). All I am saying is that collectively the soccer analytics community needs to be looking at ways to make the xG model better. One final complaint that I am sure is100% untrue, but I will say anyway is that I wonder if any of the people who built the models actually have kicked a soccer ball. I have never played competitively, but even I know the feeling you get in your soul when you strike a ball well. It’s something that will never be measurable, but it makes a difference. I don’t strike many well, but I do know that the ones I do have a higher probability of going in. It’s not the speed of the ball either. It’s the feeling of your foot hitting the right spot on the ball in combination with your eyes following the shot on the path you intended. I have to believe that is what Davis felt on her shot.
Now back to the rational part of the post…
The key difference statistically in the match in my opinion were touches in the box. The Dash has 1/3 more touches in Racing’s 18-yard box than vice versa (24-18). Long story short, Racing couldn’t clear their lines as effectively as the Dash, especially in the second half. I think each of the Dash goals can be chalked up to a Racing defender not getting the right defensive touch in the box. However, sometimes I don’t think the opponent gets enough credit. The Dash fought really hard to claw back into the game and none of their goals were undeserved. On the first, Racing couldn’t get it out of the box, but Sánchez still had to finish it. Sánchez again was the culprit on the second goal as her pass to Viggiano was the most important factor in that goal (another xG complaint…it doesn’t factor in the passes before the goal which can sometimes increases your likelihood of scoring). Maybe Lund was at fault in retrospect for the 3rd because her errant pass started the move for the penalty decision (which I have to assume was correct, because the Paramount Plus cameras must be the lowest form of “HD” cameras known to humans) but Daly got in a good position to win and finish the penalty.
That’s enough discussion on the result. Here are a few other items of note:
One has to wonder how different the result would have been with Fox getting the full 90. We have to assume without any information to contradict it, that she went off for precautionary reasons due to a potential head injury in the 29th minute. Julia Lester played well enough in her debut, but she isn’t Fox. Maybe Fox helps keep a clean sheet, but also maybe Racing don’t score their second. Either way, I hope she is back soon.
Even though Coach Björkegren didn’t want to confirm it when I asked him, Racing lined up in a different formation than the first match. Sometimes coaches like to be coy about formations, so I am going to stop asking him and forcing him to answer less than truthfully in my opinion. Anyway, Racing played from defensive restarts in a 4-4-2 in order to press more effectively early in the match. This formation seemed to work. They were a little more fluid in attack and transition, demonstrated by Davis’ goal coming from the right (where she started the previous match) when she started out the match on the left. After the equalizing goal, Coach Kim made the aggressive decision in taking off a defender (Martin) and sending on an attacker (Ekic) which meant Racing saw out the match in a back 3. Ekic and Davis seem to be flexible on either side of the pitch, as Ekic played mostly on the right in this match. I like Björkegren’s tactical flexibility. His major complaint on the night was mostly with individual play and not collective.
I think Houston’s experience helped assist their comeback. Racing is still a very young team and has to learn how to deal with success as much as failure. A little more sustained possession and composure to start the second half was needed. Even so, the first Houston goal came from a ragged attack off a set piece and sometimes you can’t avoid those. In the future, Racing has to learn to keep their composure and concentration, which I think they lost a bit after seeing the first goal go in.
Racing has a quick turnaround and sit at the bottom of the group. Wednesday’s match might see a little rotation in the squad, but I don’t expect wholesale changes. Maybe we will get to see Salmon, Gordon and Simon get starts. I would like to see Otto get some minutes as well as Goins. I also don’t think a Jordyn Bloomer start would be totally unexpected. I have been told that Coach Björkegren’s roster philosophy is to build it so that everyone gets minutes, so we’ll see how that pans out on Wednesday.
