Racing Regular Season Preview: Tom Benson Version
Tom Benson is the co-host of Butchertown Rundown with Bekki Morgan and an indiscriminate nickname-giver for Racing Louisville FC. Tom also included this helpful blurb to promote himself: “Drunk Tom Benson sent this to me, and since he is friends with my friend Bekki I had to publish it. The following is best read while you are getting your oil changed or on the toilet.”
Confession time. I undertook the below analysis to try to win money. I’ve experimented with the idea of becoming a sports bettor as a hobby for about 15 years now, For the last 15 years whenever I’ve brought it up to my wife, she has calmly asked me to pick winners in 3-4 games. I have made my picks and promptly gotten every single one of them wrong. Every. Single. One. Experiment over. But this was new! The NWSL! I was going to be ahead of the curve this time! I began to go through each game in the league’s history and retroactively apply lessons learned in other sports leagues to see if they applied. In the NFL, travelling across country affected team play. In the NBA? Days rest and numbers of games in days matter. I set up a spreadsheet and got to analyzin’. After spending hours poring over the data, I came to the following conclusion: The better teams win. They win at home. They win on the road no matter the distance travelled. They win on short rest. They win after lengthy, rust-inducing, breaks. There is another step for me to take here, looking at expected margin of victory to see if the rest, travel, etc. caused the winning team to not win by as much. Frankly though, that feels like an analysis for next year when Future Tom once again thinks about quitting his job to gamble.
Luckily though, this analysis provided some great insight into what Racing will need to do next year to reach their stated goal of making the playoffs. Club, Coach, Captain, everyone associated with the team states the same goal for the 2022 Season: Make the Playoffs. Gone are the days when “showing improvement” and “building a foundation” were the measures of success. This year it’s top 6 or bust. But how do they get there? How many points does the team need to accumulate by June to feel good in September? It can be difficult to predict because the league has not had a consistent number of teams nor a consistent number of games in its history. Last year, 2021, there were 10 teams playing 24 games each. In 2015 9 teams played 20. In 2013 8 teams played 22. How can you compare apples to, well, different types of apples? I’m sure I’m not the first to use the metric I’m calling “Percentage of Points Taken” but I haven’t seen it used previously (possibly because other teams have had standard season lengths and numbers of teams.) The formulation is simple enough: if a team plays 20 games the maximum number of points possible is 60. If they end the year with 30 points, they are at 50% points taken. Using this metric retroactively back to 2013 (excluding all Challenge Cup competitions) the results are pretty consistent. The percentage of points taken for the last team to qualify for the playoffs were: 2021 NC Courage 46%, 2019 Reign FC 53%, 2018 Chicago Red Stars 51%, 2017 Chicago Red Stars 54%, 2016 Western New York Flash 53%, 2015 Washington Spirit 50%, 2014 Washington Spirit 49%, & 2013 Sky Blue FC 55%. And remember, these percentages are like giving the doorman $20 to get into a club. You get in the door, but someone else has the best table. The 2016 Thorns took 72% of their points, the 2014 Seattle Reign took 75%, and the 2017 Courage took 68%. Speaking of the Courage, last year’s playoff qualifying team is instructive because the top 6, rather than the top 4, made the playoffs. To add one more variable, it was the top 6 out of 10 teams – not top 4 out of 10 teams (2017, 2016) 4 of 9 (2019, 2018, 2015, 2014) or 4 of 8 (2013.) In 2022 the top 6 of a 12-team league will make the playoffs. So, if the top half of the league makes it, what were the percentages of points taken for the top half of the league over the past 8 seasons? We know last year it was NC with 46%, in 2017 it was Seattle Reign at 47%, 2016 Seattle Reign at 50%, and in 2013 Sky Blue at 55%. For the years with 9 teams we’ve already listed the 4th place qualifier, but if they took the 5th place team it would have been 2019 Spirit at 47%, 2018 Utah Royals at 49%, 2015 Dash 40%, and 2014 Red Stars at 49%.
To compare these performances with Racing inaugural campaign, in 2021 Racing’s % of Points Taken was 31%, so there is work to be done. This season the club will play 22 games, giving us a maximum possible point total of 66. How many points do you feel they comfortable with to end up top 6? Are you rolling with the 46% of points taken by the Courage? That would be 30.36. This is a good time to mention that if you take the average number of draws for each team in the league and average those averages (with apologies to Dr. Brenda Masters, my Statistics professor who decried taking an average of averages) you end up with each team averaging 24% of their season matches ending in a draw. With 22 games on the schedule, we can estimate Racing will draw 5.28 games. Now we’re getting somewhere. Let’s round down: If Racing needs 30 points and they draw 5 games they need to win 9 games to get there. And really, looking at the league historically, it’s tough to see a path to the top 6 winning less than 8 games. Winning 7 games means that to hit 30 points they’d need to draw 9 times or draw 40% of their games. In league history only 3 teams have drawn that many: 2021 Gotham drew 46% of their matches, 2018 Red Stars 42%, and the 2015 Red Stars 45%. For a Racing team that lost half their games last year, turning some Ls to Ds is needed. But relying on draws can be living a dangerous life. For Racing to achieve their playoff goal, they need to win some games.
There are lots of ways to win games, and there are lots of reasons a team can be motivated to show up with a little extra spring in their step. Here is a list of games this season and why Racing has the upper hand. Whether you think Racing needs 28 points or 38 point, there are myriad ways to get there.
Hell Week: Racing plays 3 in 8 days games in July and August against teams projected to be at the top of the table. It is going to be hot. The team will likely have some knocks. Lynn Family Stadium has produced some good crowds and atmospheres in the past, but this time it’s special. The fans show up despite the heat and give the team the energy it needs to fight. In 20 years, people will look back at this week as one that truly bonded the players to the fans, and vice versa, as only shared adversity can do. Home 7/29 Thorns, 8/2 OL Reign, 8/5 Spirit
Nadia Nadim Revenge Tour: Last year Dr Nadim was injured by a questionable tackle in Orlando from a player who now suits up for OL Reign. Did you forget? Nadia didn’t. Away Reign 5/8, Away Pride 7/2, Home Reign 8/2, Away Thorns 9/21
Expansion Teams: Remember when you were a freshman, and everyone picked on you? And then the second you walked into school your sophomore year you bumped into that freshman and told them to move out of the way instead of apologizing? Racing is the expansion freshman no longer. Get in that locker Angel City. Home SD 5/18, Home ACFC 6/11, Away SD 7/15, Away ACFC 9/25.
Beat the Heat: It can get hot in Kentucky in the summer. Some of our opponents may not be used to the stifling heat and melt. Home ACFC 6/11, Home Portland 7/29, Home Spirit 8/5
Pizza Wars: There is, apparently, a debate between Chicagoans and New Yorkers as to the best style of pizza. Which is better, NY or deep-dish Chicago? The answer – bourbon. Away Red Stars 4/30, Away Gotham 5/22, Home Gotham 7/8, Home Red Stars 8/27
Happy Birthday! Some of the very best days in the office are on co-workers’ birthdays. Everyone is in a good mood. You get a longer lunch. The boss cancels the boring afternoon meeting. And someone always bring cupcakes. Cupcakes are awesome. Home SD 5/18 (Taylor Mahlham 5/20,) Away Gotham 5/22 (Freja 5/24,) Home NC 6/4/ (Emina 6/6,) Home Gotham 7/8 (Fox 7/5,) Away SD 7/15 (Gemma 7/13,) Home Spirit 8/5 (CeCe 8/7,) Home Red Stars 8/27 (Erin Simon 8/19, ) Home Pride 9/16 (Kirsten Davis 9/8)
Full Moon Fever: Racing plays 4 games on the full moon. No werewolves on the current roster gives them the advantage. Away Red Stars 4/30, Away KC 5/30, Home Red Stars 8/27, Away ACFC 9/25
2 Hydrogens 1 Oxygen and 4 good results: Racing plays 2 teams named after the motion of water: the Current and the Wave. Naming your club after the movement of people or animals – awesome. Movement of water? Dumb. Home SD 5/18, Away KC, Away SD 7/15, Home KC 10/1.
Fighting Traffic: You know when you are going to work, and then you get stuck in traffic. You just sit there listening to Morning DJs tell bad jokes. You take a sip of coffee and you spill some down your shirt. Then your air conditioner starts to go out and you have to turn it off, so it doesn’t catch on fire. There you are sweating, dirty shirt, not moving, and mad. Racing gets the advantage on the road for these games because their opponents are stuck in traffic. Away Spirit, 6/17, Away Dash 8/12, Away ACFC 9/25
Identity Crisis. Some teams need to move due to bad owners or bad stadium situations. Some teams need to rebrand to reset a culture or gin up some excitement. But how does that make players feel? To know that your organization played a bunch of games and then pretended those games didn’t exist? That those teams didn’t exist? Your playing career can be erased because an owner was a jerk, or a marketing firm says you are stale. Heavy stuff there. The existential crisis gives Racing the advantage. Away OL Reign 5/8, Away Gotham 5/22, Away KC 5/30, home NC 6/4, Home Gotham 7/8, Home OL Reign 8/2, Away CN 9/10, Home KC 10/1
Ennui Crest. 2 teams have a red and blue crest featuring a cat. How is that lack of creativity possible? Did they limit the brainstorming portion of the meeting to 5 minutes or just go with the first idea? “But wait! Our crest has red and blue AND gold! That’s different and unique!” No, it’s not, Dave. Unique crest gets better results. Away OL Reign 5/8, Home NC 6/4, Home OL Reign 8/2, Away NC 9/10
Editor’s Note: Here is Tom’s projection of the outcomes as of 4/18/22. He estimated that a team needs 33 points out of 66 to make the playoffs. Using this as a baseline, you can tweak the results or email admin@fleur-de-lis-fc.com if you would like your own copy of the simulator in MS Excel.
Tom’s Prediction based on a 50% point accumulation requirement
I ran my own simulation and came up with the following prediction:
