Racing v Red Stars Pre Match Thoughts
A new look Racing takes the pitch on Saturday at home against the Red Stars. With all of the departures and incoming players, the line up we get on Saturday is unlikely to be the same one we get as players further integrate, but it will give us some clue as to how Racing might finish out the season.
I think the new CBA that was announced was likely good for the players and ultimately good for the league, but since the full terms haven’t been released as of yet, it is difficult to say too much about it. The player press release is obviously going to highlight the benefits to the players, but the devil is in the details on these types of things. One thing is clear to me at least and that is if Racing is going to have to ultimately support a higher payroll, then they are going to have to expand their revenue streams. I don’t think an average attendance of 6000 or so, can support a 2030-sized payroll. That is pure conjecture on my part, but it is something that worries me. The ownership group and the city of Louisville got a sweetheart deal on their franchise rights, but that won’t sustain an operating model and the current revenue stream forever. Again, I don’t have any real evidence here other than my experience, but I think that Soccer Holdings is probably not making any real money on Racing and are probably operating at a loss. Compounding the expenses without increasing the revenue is not really sustainable for anybody other than an owner with deep, deep pockets. Because there is next to no transparency here, I would be delighted for someone to open the books on the NWSL and its franchises and prove me wrong. I am not going to hold my breath.
However, that worry is not an immediate concern (I hope) but making the playoffs and getting an attendance bump that will need to go with it is likely the impetus for the wave of player movement we have experienced. Racing might be slightly worse on defense but should be noticeably better in attack. Balcer should slot in right away but let me remind everyone of a few things. (1) Balcer has only ever played for a single NWSL team that (2) was a pretty consistent winner with (3) multiple pretty reliable goal-scoring options. The environment matters, so hopefully it translates but we shouldn’t hit the panic button if it doesn’t happen immediately. Beckie arrived probably too late (her first practice was this morning) to do anything other than make the squad on Saturday. Barón is likely here for depth initially, so I think we see a similar back line to what we saw against Palmeiras. The good news is that Racing probably has enough to beat the Red Stars at home anyway, so I expect them to get off on the right foot in their playoff chase.
In the things that I have read here and there, I have to hand it to Racing fans in that for the most part they seem to be having a fairly level-headed response to losing some beloved and well-liked players. Some of that is due to humanity’s propensity to rationalize pretty much anything that happens, and some is due to getting in some reps in the previous seasons losing players. If you put those two things to the side, I still believe that Racing is better for the moves and I do feel like that is the consensus view among reasonable fans (I blocked out the unreasonable ones long ago, so your experience may vary). By all accounts Racing could add more players too, so you have to say that the club had a very good transfer window on paper at least. Now they just have to follow through on things.
This may be one of the more obvious sentences I have ever written on this space, but Racing needs wins and not draws. At this point in the season, a draw and a loss are basically equivalent due to the teams around Racing in the table. I tend to think there will be six teams fighting for the final two spots. Racing should not settle for anything less than wins in the six home matches they have remaining. I think 15 points from 10 would probably get things done.
