Racing v Spirit Preview
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing Louisville Football Club has won 2 matches since the last time the Washington Spirit won one. Let that sink in.
I don’t follow other clubs very much, but I do have a soft spot for the Spirit. I was in the room when Rodman, Hatch and Kingbury received their ROY, Golden Boot, and GOY awards at the NWSL Championship media day.
I talked to all three of them on media day and to Rodman literally 2 minutes before she was announced as rookie of the year. I also spent time “interviewing” many of the other players. It was mostly me blathering and giving them advice to score first, which of course they didn’t and still won. Andi Sullivan was a great interview. I also talked to Bailey, Staab, Roddar, Biegalski, Sanchez and many others. They all treated me very well.
In a way I feel both sad and delighted about how their season has gone. I wish all of their players well, but it is also fun to see the reigning champions struggle a bit. For the 3 players pictured above, Hatch will almost definitely not win the golden boot again. Rodman may score more goals than the 6 she scored last year, but probably won’t reach last year’s 6 assists mark. Kingsbury has a Fotmob player rating of almost a half a point lower than last year where she kept 8 clean sheets. This year she only has 2.
However, the Spirit got hot at just the right time last year. They could do so again, but they would have to leapfrog 5 teams to get into playoff position. The math is against them. In the same number of matches, Racing has scored 1 more goal, but conceded 3 more goals and that is really a negligible difference. Everything other than the names on the backs of the jerseys indicate that these two teams are about the same. They are 5th and 6th for shots on target per match, .1 goal apart on goals per match and .2 goal apart on goals conceded per match.
The lack of preparation time for this match for Racing and the fact that the Spirit didn’t have a midweek match makes me think that the Spirit will dictate the style in this match much like they did in the 2-2 draw earlier this season. However, we saw in that match that a single great half of football isn’t enough to get the job done. The Spirit has won the possession battle in their last 5 matches, so expect that trend to continue. They are also capable of conceding 3 goals in a match which they have done twice in the last 6 matches.
As for Racing, the outcome still officially matters, but practically it doesn’t. Coach Björkegren and the players will never concede that the playoffs are a lost cause until it is official, nor should they. However, I encourage fans to look for other things besides the score line for the next several matches. If this them is going to play a high-pressing style, they are going to have to learn to play out from the back more consistently and win the midfield battle. The long balls that you saw in the last match might briefly increase their chances of winning in the short term, but I don’t think you learn anything from Route 1 football. I think now is (almost) the time to stubbornly stick to your chosen style and “damn the torpedoes”. The team seems close enough as a group of teammates to not get too down on each other if they take a good thumping, so I say work on the things that you will need to be successful next year and press until you physically can’t.
However, for this match and the trip to Houston: survive. There will be 6 more NWSL matches after the Women’s Cup, and I think you try to escape this one and the next with all of your players healthy and consider that a victory. Once Racing returns to the normal single match per week schedule after the Women’s Cup, I think we might see a shift in tactics back to the high press.
