Royals v Racing Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing looks to extend its winning streak to 3 in a row on Saturday in Salt Lake City. The simplest formula to make the playoffs is to continue to get 3 points every week, so that will be the focus.
Frequent visitors to this space will know that I tend to put quite a bit of stock into scoring first. It is very clear that scoring first gives you the best chance to win. I know that statement isn’t particularly insightful or earth-shattering news, but it is something that I monitor because it is very important. I think sometimes people sometimes spend too much time looking for deep insights, when the plain as day, blatantly obvious thing is the most useful. Here is why I bring it up now. Racing has fallen behind in consecutive matches. In general, doing such a thing is a bad proposition. This season, when a team does not score the first goal, their chances of getting all 3 points is around 14%. That also means that pulling off a sequence where you don’t score first in three matches in a row and winning all 3 of those matches is around .3% (3 times out of 1000). I won’t bore you with probability theory, but since the two preceding matches are known results, the probability of winning on Saturday if they fall behind is still around 14% based solely this year’s scoring first results. All I am really trying to point out here is that the numbers say a quick start in this match is prudent. It is one thing to fall behind at home (when the road team scores first, the home team averages .69 points), but a worse proposition on the road (when the home team score’s first, the road team averages .43 points). In the last match against North Carolina, Racing let the match come to them, and it worked out well. In Utah, I am torn about what the most effective scenario might be. I like Racing’s prospects much better in a 2-1 match over a 1-0 match. Racing only has 4 clean sheets in the league this season and none since early June. Utah concedes 1.6 goals per match, and only scores .7 per match, so jumping on them early seems to be the way to go. I will feel much better if Racing concedes the inevitable goal with a 3 goal or more lead. Just don’t concede the first one.
As of this moment, I won’t be able to watch the Utah match live. Depending on when I do finally get to see it, I may combine my player ratings post with my post-match thoughts. Either way, don’t look for my ratings immediately after the match.
