San Diego v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
One of the blessings/curses of writing a “Pre Match” piece is that I choose to go through the images from the previous year’s fixture. As you can see above, I chose the key image from a 0-0 draw where Jaelin Howell had a goal ruled out due to interfering with the Wave keeper. I seem to recall several calls for VAR at the time (memory is an unreliable witness however) and sometimes you get buyer’s remorse once you see the effects of what you once desired. We’ve had just about a year’s worth of VAR and I would personally give it a rating of “Needs Improvement”. This is especially the case when VAR overturns a call on the field where there isn’t enough evidence to overturn a call after a 30 second review. I warned about the lack of cameras and here we sit at the end of the first season. Here’s hoping that VAR isn’t involved in any match on Sunday and that everyone feels like they got a fair shake after the matches end. This being the NWSL, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
There are all kinds of graphics and commentary about what must happen for Louisville to make the playoffs, but I would rather focus on what Louisville must do, and that is win. I still maintain that a 7th or 8th place finish is bad for the long-term future of the club, but I wouldn’t want the team to not try for a playoff spot. Recency bias will always make you focus on the near-term past and the decisions that went against them, but this team has dropped plenty of points this season from winning positions. Then again, I think that I saw that they have won more points from losing positions that any other team in the league this, so it would be hard to argue that any place that they finish wouldn’t be “fair”.
I haven’t seen any availability news yet, but Wang Shuang is back, and hopefully Ary Borges is fit. Jae Howell could have the questionable tag removed from her, but I personally think that her injury is best served by a few full months of rest (but as always, I don’t have any real insight into the specifics of it). The most observant watchers will notice that Howell’s injury has been listed as both “Hip” and “Ankle” so I think we can safely assume that she has been dealing with multiple issues. Jae looked like she was nearly ready to enter the match against the Pride, but she never got to the point of taking out her earrings (the NWSL won’t let you play in jewelry), and my wife swears that she knew that she wasn’t going to play because she wore them on the bench. I think starting both Borges and Howell coming off of injury is a bit risky, and I have the feeling that we may see Borges before Howell.
Every team except Chicago (who is my opinion is highly incented to lose and secure the number 3 pick) has something to play for. Louisville has shown up well against San Diego in their brief histories. I felt like despite going down 2 goals at home against the Pride, that Louisville never stopping trying to equalize and then ultimately win. I think this team plays best when it doesn’t try to overthink things. I think that Louisville will try to set up for quick counters and maybe have a new set piece in their locker (there was no media availability at any practice this week, so I don’t have any insider info related to the set piece comment). I think game theory goes out the window once the match starts, so I don’t believe any team will be scoreboard watching and even if there is word that the Thorns are winning comfortably, I don’t expect San Diego to do anything other than press hard for a win. The NWSL Shield would be a huge achievement for a club in its second year. In my opinion, it is still trophy #1 regardless of what anybody else says or believes (any league with a balanced schedule only does playoffs as a money grab…and no value judgement on money grabs, but the table is definitive proof of the best team for a season).
