North Carolina v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Anne Evans
It’s been a while since I have reported on my tracking of how teams that score first are performing this season, so let’s do that first. I see this as more of a macro level measures, so I combine performance in the league and cup into one chart. You could easily separate the two, but I think the combined chart shows Louisville upward trajectory more clearly so I went with the combined one. Here it is:
Note that Louisville is comfortably above average in both metrics, winning points when scoring first and salvaging points when not. Their numbers are greatly assisted by their performances in the Challenge Cup but it is a part of the story of the season so far, so I think it matters. The most interesting data point on the chart by a long shot is the Washington Spirit, which basically says they are never comfortable with a lead nor out of a match.
With that update out of the way, I will turn my attention to North Carolina on Saturday. Louisville still has its full roster at its disposal except for Alex Chidiac (and the long-term absentees) who has already left to join the Australian National Team. To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, I am once again asking for your support in treating the North Carolina team as a beatable opponent and not some unconquerable monster. I was a little disheartened to hear Bekki Morgan on the most recent episode of BTRD say that a 2-1 loss wouldn’t be a disappointment (or something of similar sentiment as I am too lazy to fact check what she actually said). Bekki and I tend to agree more than we disagree, but perhaps our biggest difference in opinion lies in how we see Louisville’s performance against the teams where they have had no success. I don’t see Portland or North Carolina as unbeatable and no result other than a win should be taken with anything other than disappointment. It wouldn’t be season-ending or even day-ruining disappointment, but I am afraid that a draw would be over celebrated, and a close loss written off all too easily. Of course, absolutely none of this matters to the players who are never happy with anything other than all three points, so any amount of fan-initiated handwringing is moot anyway.
Louisville could be slightly buoyed by their first half performance at home vs. the Courage, where they dictated the match but couldn’t break through. On the other hand, the Courage have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently, winning 4 out of 5 matches in the league and cup which incidentally started with a win in Louisville. Maybe Erceg and Pickett will take a little something extra back to North Carolina, but ultimately this match will come down to who can finish off their chances better. Louisville averages a shot on target more than the Courage, so maybe they can find a way to make the math pay off for them in this match. A win for Louisville would put them in a playoff position this late in the season for the first time ever, at least until Sunday when Gotham and Houston would need to get a draw and a win respectively to keep up.
