Wave v Racing Preview
Racing has a 10PM EDT kickoff in San Diego on Friday against the Wave. The Wave will be missing their national team players which include Naomi Girma, Sofia Jakobsson, Taylor Kornieck, Alex Morgan, and Kailen Sheridan, which means that they are slightly more impacted by absentees than Racing. After this weekend’s matches, the NWSL will take a week off and return to action on July 29th. By that time, it is likely that all international players other than those whose teams make the semis of the Euros will be back. For Racing, that means that they should be at full strength unless Denmark makes a deep run which would have to start with a win vs. Spain on Saturday.
In a way too early look at 2023, I have started to wonder what the NWSL season is going to look like from a scheduling perspective with the World Cup next year. One option that likely will not be as readily available next year is the ability for teams to sign national team replacement players. The USL Super League will be gearing up to start its season in August next year and while it might not overlap with the July 20 to August 20 schedule for the World Cup, I would have to believe that the USL Super League teams will be running training camps in the June/July period. That means that there will be around 250-300 more women who will be playing professional soccer. I think this pool is likely to include several of the players that served as national team replacement players this year. Yesterday the NWSL had a press release that mentioned broadcast improvements coming soon (yay!), expansion in 2024 (cool), VAR in 2023 (we’ll see), but no mention of the schedule for next year. I am throwing it out there: I think the league has to split the season in half and take off 4 or 5 weeks for the World Cup. If that means pausing the Challege Cup for a year or revamping it to be played in either a season-long format or during the World Cup with diminished squads, I am fine with that. It may be too early for the fans to be worrying about this, but I would like to have some indication that the league is planning for it. What I definitely don’t want is Racing Louisville matches in January or February.
Back in the present, Racing is in dire need of a result to match their recent performances, and I believe they can get a good one if they can just cut down on their mistakes. For all its intricacies, soccer is really a game of capitalizing on your opponent’s mistakes. In its history, Racing has scored 48 goals. Exactly half have come directly from an opponent’s mistake (off the press, in transition, from a free kick, corner, or penalty or from an own goal). It can be argued that another 9 were started in transition from a mistake. Only 15 have been with any kind of interconnected play (13 with sustained possession and 2 long passing moves started with the keeper).
I kind of wished I had been tracking how Racing conceded goals but going back and collecting that data seems like a depressingly daunting task that should be reserved for a dark and dreary winter night. Therefore, based on memory alone, I think that Racing’s conceded goal chart would look very similar. As a small sample size, if you look at the last match vs. Gotham, you will clearly see that all 3 goals started with at least one clear mistake. Fans could talk ad nauseum about formations and player selection but cutting down on mistakes is the key. Players should always be encouraged to show their skills and take chances, but the defensive third is not the place to play a low percentage pass and taking a risky touch should never been done with 8 or 9 teammates on the wrong side of the ball. It really is like the Hippocratic Oath: Primum non nocere.
Racing has a chance to get back in the playoff hunt, but they really are reaching the point of no return if they don’t get 3 points in this match. Even though San Diego leads the league, it is a team missing fire power and defensive steel. The next few matches, even though Racing are at home, would be decent draws if Racing weren’t in such dire need of points. I think 7 points from the next 12 available going into the August 12th match at Houston is likely necessary to keep any realistic playoff hopes alive. It’ s a tall order. I think 3 points in San Diego is vital in that it would give the team a little hope and momentum heading into the off week.
I also think there is little point in playing for draws at this point, at least until Racing gets within striking distance of the playoffs. I don’t think this actually would be a noticeable change anyway, as the team’s current style is to go forward when the match is tied.
