What can you learn from a 5-0 defeat?
Three is a magic number . Yes, it is, it’s a magic number…
You can learn from a lopsided defeat, but I think you can learn more from a trend.
A quick perusal of the basic stats from Racing’s 7 games so far showed me some things that I expected, and some things that I didn’t. I was certain that Racing had lost the possession battle in all of their games, but they actually won the possession battle (albeit narrowly) in 2 of their draws: Home to Orlando 2-2 (51%) and Home to KC 0-0 (51%). In the previous game against NC at home, a 2-3 defeat, Racing had 48% possession. The Road paints a different picture. Washington (44%), Gotham (45%) and NC (39%) all road games show Racing struggling to hold possession away from home. The warning signs were also there in the 2-0 win vs Washington where they held possession for just 40% of the time.
The passing numbers in those games are even worse. Racing was out passed by 108 at Washington in the Challenge Cup, 101 by Gotham in the same competition, 165 in the victory against Washington, and 171 last night against NC. On the year Racing has been outshot by opponents 129-65. Those are the numbers.
However, you can’t just look at the numbers, you have to take into account what you see on the pitch. Here is the part where I remind you that I am not a soccer coach and very well may not have any idea what I am talking about. On the other hand…I have watched a lot of soccer. I also probably need to disclose a couple of other things about myself:
I am a huge Arsenal FC fan
I find club soccer much more compelling that international soccer
You may ask yourself what these two facts might have to do with anything, but let me assure you that they are important. Arsenal is (typically…ugh these last couple of years have been rough) one of the historically better teams in the English Premier League, but also haven’t been THE best in quite some while. What this means is that against weaker teams their tactics quite often look different than when they set up against Liverpool, Chelsea, or Man City. Beyond that, they quite often set up differently at home vs. on the road vs. these teams. Take Chelsea for example. Chelsea play in the Champions League final today, and have had a much better season that Arsenal. In fact they have had Arsenal’s number for quite some time in the league, but Arsenal defeated them twice this year (H 3-1, A 0-1). That second victory is the important one in this context, but more on that later.
The second fact is more of an insight about me I think. I find international soccer to be played with a different intensity than club soccer, at least in the qualifying and group stages of competitions. That isn’t a positive or a negative, just an observation. This is important because the league season in a grind. The level of competition can vary greatly at the international level, and let’s be honest here…the US Women’s National Team are bullies. I don’t mean that in a negative way, but in the way that means that they tend to dictate style and tempo through force and a talent gap sometimes. Theoretically in a league competition, the teams should be closer in skill and talent level with a pretty important distinction…an expansion team. Now that you know those two things about me, you can take or leave my analysis based on those or any other factor.
I promise to keep the digressions to a minimum (bar one important one) for the rest of this post.
I say all of this to frame up a brutal reality. Racing Louisville FC are going to be the second best team on the pitch several times this year. They won’t be able to dictate tempo. This shouldn’t be breaking news, but it still stings a little bit to type those words. That is why it is important to know who you are.
I attended the first NC game in person with my daughter. She played soccer a bit growing up, but isn’t what I would call a huge fan. However, she was there and heard (or completely ignored…which is her right) my commentary on the game. Here is what I saw in that 2-3 defeat.
NC loved to attack down the left
Racing was too narrow in defense, especially on the counter attack
So, going into last night’s game I wondered if Racing would set up any differently. The answer to that was a disappointing NOPE! The formation was 4-3-3 and they got run off the field. I thought NC was most dangerous when they used the width of the field, especially on the left side. A couple of times there seemed to be no Racing player on the right-hand defending/left-hand attacking side in the last third of the pitch. Any switch of possession from right to left was exposed.
With all of the items I stated above I want to congeal my thoughts into these basics facts
Racing is a team that struggles to hold possession, especially on the road
Racing is a team that get frequently gets out passed by 100 passes/game
Racing is a team that gets out shot 2 to 1
Now how do you combat this? I don’t have definitive answer, but many things have been tried and some quite successfully.
Concede possession and “park the bus”: For those unfamiliar with the term, parking the bus basically is a derogatory term for having a purely defensive mindset, mostly to protect a lead or a point. Jose Mourinho’s teams used to be that master at this. There are two very glaring negatives: A) your team almost always needs to score first and B) It is like watching paint dry. Stoke City in their stint in the Premier league was a stubbornly negative team, but they did grind out a lot of draws and a few wins and avoided relegation for quite some time. I was delighted when they finally were.
Have an unbalanced formation: Racing needs help on the right defensive side, so theoretically Christy Holly could give his RB some extra cover on that side by employing a second MF to cheat to the right side. While this has been tried a few times, I can’t recall any team using it more than a one or two off situation.
A Back 3: To my eyes this is a solution that I would at least like to see attempted. Several teams play consistently with 3 Center Backs and a Left and Right Winger. Back to my final digression. Arsenal defeated Chelsea 0-1 this year at Stamford Bridge using a back 3 and in the 2020 FA Cup using a back 3. The 0-1 victory this year was really only notable for 2 reasons. The first was that Chelsea gifted Arsenal a hilarious goal, and secondly that Chelsea never really got close to scoring until they added extra attackers at the end of the game.
Here is what I think a back 3 would do for Racing:
You create defensive width naturally by having an extra CB on the field. The CBs have specific sections of the field to cover and the LCB and RCB have natural support from the Left and Right Wings (or Left and Right Backs if you like it stated that way).
You free up Emily Fox to attack even more. Emily would still have plenty of defensive work to do, but in attack she would be able to push even further forward with 3 CBs vs 2.
Guess who is coming to town! I don’t know much about Gemma Bonner yet other than she is an England International and she is a central defender. Slot her into a back three and give it a try.
I believe Racing is going to have to embrace being a counter attacking team, at least on the road. A change in formation would greatly help that.
I look forward to the 4-3-3 set up against Portland…
M
