Stolen The Wire Epigraph

“You cannot lose if you do not play.”

For those of you who haven’t seen The Wire, it is a documentary on the thriving blue collar working class at the Port of Baltimore.

Full transparency: I wasn’t there. The plan was to rewatch the match if Racing won, but that didn’t happen, so you're getting a half-assed effort today. The good news is that it comes at half price!

I did have one eye on the match, and as far as one eye and the stats tell me, I didn’t miss much. No team is obligated to play “football” in a soccer match. The Reign definitely didn’t seem interested in it. Their stat line was abysmal in just about every category bar the important one.

There were a couple of things that Seattle did well. They finished off their golden opportunity (xG=.688) and made Racing try to prove that they could score when the other team was determined not to play to Racing’s strengths. Seattle didn’t bother trying to break a press. They simply let Racing have the ball (in the parts of the match I saw). Racing could do nothing with the advantage that was ceded to them. Seattle simply was not afraid of Racing’s ability to construct a goal with loads of possession. Seattle was determined not to play football and therefore set themselves up not to lose. They won and should make no apologies.

This match gives me the perfect opportunity to bang on xG as an additive match statistic. Game theory/probability/mathematics will all tell you that seven .1 xG shots are equivalent to one .7 xG shot. Give me the one .7 xG shot every day and I will live with the consequences. The ball has no memory, and you are always better off creating fewer great chances vs. more poor chances in the long run and the short run. Your mileage may vary on that, and that’s enough on xG.

Post (and mid) Match Moment of the Match

I was going to listen to the post match interviews, but Bev saved me the trouble by starting off with “I think we deserved…”

CLICK. DONE. CLOSE THE VIDEO.

HIT IT SNOOP!

Thanks Snoop!

Seattle rightly does not care about your “deserve” and I don’t either.

You don’t get to ask the league for a replay on what you think you “deserved”. Take your medicine and do better next time.

TV Kit Rating

In my 2024 kit ratings I had this Seattle kit ranked third for the primary kits. At the time I said “Even though I prefer royal blue to navy, it works with the gold on this kit. It's simple without being boring.” Without the Black Future Co-op Fund branding however, I think it looked rather dull. The badge is still great though.

6/10

Show You Should've Watched If You Had Power After the Storms Last Night

Season 2 of Poker Face is out now! If you are unfamiliar, what’s the matter with you? (Or maybe you don’t have Peacock.) Get in on this show now! It’s light and breezy…with murders! Come on, you know you are into murders. Everyone is. This week’s episode was full of familiar faces and voices and alligators and meth. It’s like a tourism ad/cautionary tale for Florida! Who doesn’t either hate or love Florida, or kind of both at the same time?

Did the stadium have good food?

Beats me, but I would like to think Kaitlyn and Bekki from Butchertown Rundown enjoyed the club experience this week. Maybe they will mention it in the podcast.

What did have good food however is this place:

BEYOND THE SUN

It was a last-minute post-graduation lunch for my nephew, and they were able to accommodate 12 of us on short notice.

The cosmopolitan was served with a smoke bubble on top. Similar to this lavender one.

Too cool by half!

“Missed chances and the same regrets”

Bonny/Steve McQueen/1985

(“Bonny” may be one of my favorite songs. It will likely get multiple uses here.)

Twenty shots with one on target isn’t going to get it done. There is no excuse other than the execution must be better. Getting into good positions is half the battle. The problem is that is really is half the battle and you need to finish the other half. On the other side of the ball, Ellie Jean was beaten on the Dahlien goal and there will be no regrets for Seattle. In the second half of the match Seattle was laughably statistically poor and Racing gave them no reason to even attempt to play a football match. They opted for trench warfare and got away with it.

You have to make your good stretches of play pay off and Racing had been relatively good at that in the last 3 matches. Other and better teams will decide to play football against Racing, but Seattle has given them the blueprint if they get a lead. If Racing isn’t going to create better chances, they are going to have to make the volume pay off, but none of the 20 shots from Racing today looked particularly dangerous in its execution. The ball may have gotten to a dangerous spot, but Racing was toothless on the next touch.

You cannot lose if you do not play