Roster Performance and Analysis through 18 matches
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Neely Martin goes from an open tryout to being a probable returnee for next year's team.
With only 6 games remaining in the NWSL season and the playoffs almost surely out of reach, I wanted to start to think about how the team performed statistically this year and how they might set up for next year. I compared statistical performance across position groups. I believe that it would be foolish to wait until the season is over for the team to start to evaluate talent, so I have to believe these last 6 matches will serve as a chance to audition for any players that might not be locks to be on next year's team. With that in mind, for each player I will give a brief summary of any statistically relevant data, including any interesting statistical tidbits and a very preliminary evaluation of whether I believe the player will be on the 2022 roster.
Goalkeepers:
1-Betos: Michelle has played every minute of the league season. She is the only Racing player to do so. Even though Michelle leads the league in saves, she does not lead the league in saves per match. Kallen Sheridan leads of NJ/NY leads the league in saves per match with 5.3 to Michelle's 5.0. I don't want to live in a world where Michelle Betos isn't this team's captain next year.
21-Money and 22-Lund: When the season started I made flash cards for myself, so that I could learn the players by sight during matches. When Racing posted pictures from their outing at Churchill Downs, it took me a minute to remember who Shelby Money was. That's not a good sign for a player’s performance, but 3rd keeper is a tough role. Even though Katie Lund has played 0 minutes in the league so far, we are all aware of her contribution to the club. I hope she gets a start soon. I don't think Racing will draft a keeper or look for another one through open tryouts unless San Diego selects Katie through the expansion draft, which is not beyond the realm of possibility. Another bit of trivia…Katie was drafted 7 spots ahead of Michelle in the expansion draft, so the team may see her as the long term keeper.
Defenders (according to Racing's roster)
3-Simon: Erin has had a mixed bag in regards to performance this year. Her passing accuracy is lowest on the team (59%) for anyone with more than 300 minutes. She has found herself on the bench recently when she was a regular starter. My instinct is that she will continue to be a sub when used, and will get less minutes as the team finishes the season. From what I can tell she will no longer be under contract at the end of the season and I think she will be allowed to leave.
4-Bonner: Gemma rates above average for the team in the relevant categories (passing accuracy, clearances, interceptions) and is a leader on defense. She leads the team in clearances with 55 and accurate passes per minute (.49) for all players with more than 100 minutes. Gemma is under contract for 2022 and 2023, so she will be around for a while.
11-Fox: Emily leads all players who play in a “wide” or attacking positions with 78% passing accuracy. She is also Fotmob's top rated Racing Louisville player for the season with a 7.3 average rating per match. In addition she had more than double the amount of interceptions (40) than the next highest player. She should be a Racing player for as long as she wants to stay.
12-Miramontez: Ranks below average in most statistical categories. Holds the distinction of being the first and so far only Racing player to get a red card. Most likely will not be with the team next season.
14-Martin: Nealy ranks slightly above average in the relevant categories for defense. Her passing accuracy is tied for highest among defenders (81%). I think Nealy has proven reliable and will continue to get a look at left back. Her ability to play in both left sided defensive positions means that she should probably make the roster again next year.
15-Hendrix: If any player has gotten a raw deal based on statistical performance, it's been Brooke. She leads the team in both clearances per minute and interceptions per minute. However, she is on the lower side in passing accuracy for defenders (74%). I would like to see her get another shot in the lineup before the end of the season before passing full judgment on her chances of being on the team in 2022. I don't believe she is under contract, so that may lower her chances.
16-Ashley: Julia has only played 238 minutes due to injury and other factors. She was taken 2nd in the expansion draft, so she surely was going to be a larger part of the plans. I think she is under contract for next year.
18-Riehl: Kaleigh is above average in all of the relevant categories and is tied for the lead in passing accuracy among defenders. She has also played more minutes at CB than any other player. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year, but she is one to keep for sure.
26-Merrick: Addisyn has had the worst injury luck since joing Racing and has only played 57 minutes. However, in those 57 minutes she showed why Racing selected her number 1 in the expansion draft. She had 37 accurate passes in those minutes which is frankly astounding compared to the rest of the team. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year. Her health will unfortunately have a lot to do with the decision to keep her or not. If Racing decides not to keep her, she will surely catch on elsewhere.
Midfielders (according to Racing's roster)
2-Milliet: Lauren is nominally a midfielder, but “attacker” might be a better description. Honestly, the stats don't do her any favors. She is average to just below average in the relevant attacking stats (chances created, goals, assists and shots on target). Lauren is a personal favorite, but will probably be left unprotected in the expansion draft in hopes that she is selected. If not, I think it's a coin flip to see if she is back on the roster in 2022.
8-Olofsson: Freja is pretty much the only option at DM at this point, and has performed well statistically. She leads the team in passing accuracy at 84%. It's unclear if she is under contract for next year, but I think it's a safe bet that she will be on the roster in 2022.
19-Otto: Unfortunately, there isn't much to evaluate with Taylor other than a 45 minute outing in KC. She is under contract, but will probably be left unprotected. If she is not taken, she will be on the 2022 roster.
Forwards (according to Racing's roster)
5-Kizer: CeCe (along with Yuki) is one of the most accurate passers (77%) of the attacking players. She leads the “front 3” forwards in minutes, chances created and the entire team in shots on target. It's unclear is CeCe is under contract past this year, but the team will surely keep her.
7- McCaskill: Savannah leads all outfield players in minutes and chances created (31 which is 14 more than 2nd place Kizer). Her relatively low passing accuracy (69%) can be attributed to her desire to move the ball forward. She and CeCe are in the same situation via contract status. She is surely in no danger of leaving unless she pushes for it.
9-Salmon: Ebony leads the team in goals and goals per match. She has been coming on as a sub recently, but surely that is to protect her from overuse. She is under contract next year.
10-Nadim: Nadia leads the team in chances created per minute and shots on target per minute. The team will surely miss her in these last 6 matches. She is under contract for this year and next.
13-Ekic: Had one great game, and hasn't had the opportunity to do much else. Hopefully will get more minutes in these last 6 matches. Racing might be tempted to leave her unprotected in the draft. I think I would risk it. She is under contract for next year.
17-Nagasato: Leads the attackers in passing accuracy with 78%. Other than passing, she lags in the other attacking stats. Her contract status I unclear, and at 34 I would be tempted to leave her unprotected. If she is not selected by San Diego, she would definitely be welcomed back for 2022.
20-Matthews: Cheyna has a goal and an assist in her limited minutes. All of her attacking stats are at or above average. Her contract status is unclear, and probably is 50/50 on returning.
22-McClure: Katie hasn't done much statistically during her limited minutes. Little to no chance that she would be preferred to new options in attack.
27-Kara: Vanessa has not had much opportunity to show her skills, and will surely not be on the team next year.
33 Baucom: Based strictly on league performance, Jorian hasn't done much, but did score in the Challenge Cup and the Women's Cup. Even though she seems to be the preferred starter in Coach Sanchez's system, I don't think she will be on Racing's squad next year, but will surely catch on elsewhere.
Here's who I think will make at least the preliminary 2022 roster:
GK (3) Betos, Lund, Money
D (6) Bonner, Ashley, Riehl, Merrick, Martin, Fox
M (2) Olofsson, Otto
F (6) Nagasato, McCaskill, Nadim, Kizer, Salmon, Ekic
That is 17 players. The top 4 draft picks in next year's draft are probably locks to make the team, bringing the roster to 21. The current roster sits at 25. The NWSL max on the roster is supposed to be 24 with 4 supplemental players. I don't know this for sure, but I assume that Shelby Money is on the supplemental roster.
Here are the players that might be at risk to be unprotected and taken by San Diego:
Lund, Merrick, Ashley, Riehl, Milliet, Nagasato, Ekic
