Well, it would've been, could've been worse than you would ever know
I wrote this before discovering Racing's travel misadventures. This song is hilariously relevant even more now. The first line of Modest Mouse's Dashboard serves as the title for my pre-match thoughts for this week. I'm not great at deciphering lyrics, but the overall theme of the song is finding the positives in a bad situation. Racing Louisville FC takes on the monumental task of traveling to Providence Park to face 2021 Challenge Cup winners, the Portland Thorns. I have to say that the numbers don't look good.
A Bad Situation
Here's a quick rundown of the reality facing Coach Holly's team this week:
The Thorns have the leagues 2nd best possession numbers at 55.1%. Racing is dead last in the league at 43.5%.
Portland leads the league in xG (expected goals) overall with 1.86/ game and at home with 2.12/game.
The Thorns lead the league in goals/ game with 2.0 compared to Racing's 0.7.
As for shots on goal, I’m sure you will not be shocked to learn that Racing's opponent once again leads the league with 8.8/game compared to 1.7 for Louisville.
The Positives
“Oh, the dashboard melted, but we still have the radio”… The second line of Modest Mouse's Dashboard provides a little hope in the face of impending doom. Here are some potential positives that could help Louisville weather the potential storm in Portland:
Michelle Betos has been great in goal and is 2nd in the league at 6 saves/ game. Portland's keeper, Adrianna Franch only has had to make 1.7 saves/game. However, this uber-athelic keeper for the USWNT is unlikely to make too many errors. Maybe Racing can catch her on a poor night.
Providence Park will soon open up to 80% capacity, but Racing will be a bit lucky to only face an estimated 6,300 fans.
The Thorns, for all of their dominant stats, have scored only one goal in each of their last three games.
Also to make things worse, as I type this at 11:20 am on Friday, the team is stuck at the Houston airport. Some of the staff including Coach Holly decided to fly in later and are now in Portland without their team.
“Now here we go”
With all of that being said, here are the keys for Racing to get a point or three this week:
Weather the first 20 minutes. This is absolutely critical for any road team facing an aggressive and talented team. If Racing can keep it dull and boring for those first 20 minutes, there is a chance to silence the home crowd and gain their footing in the match.
Do not concede more than a goal in the first half. I fear that a 2 goal lead may be too much to overcome for Racing. Even a 2-1 deficit at halftime may be a bridge too far. I know this seems counterintuitive, but a 1-0 deficit sometimes makes the team with the lead chase that 2nd goal a tad aggressively. At 2-1, the team with the lead knows their opponent is dangerous enough to score, having done so already.
A player or two needs to put in an outstanding performance. I believe this one might be more possible than it appears at first glance. Gemma Bonner and Ebony Salmon are going to walk into the team's starting eleven pretty soon after the international break. That means 2 players are going to lose their starting roles. One of the center backs and probably one of the forwards will soon be on the bench. There should be plenty of motivation to perform well on Saturday. Also, after the international break Racing has 3 games in 7 days. Coach Holly will have to rotate, so the players not in the normal starting eleven are going to get a chance to show what they bring to the team. A bad performance on Saturday could doom you to the bench for a while, so I expect full effort from all eleven players. I asked Coach Holly about rotation during the Friday afternoon press conference, and he said that the increased competition for spots could only help the team and hinted a bit towards rotation.
“Well we scheme, and we scheme, but we always blow it”
As for a prediction…I am terrible at those, so I will give you a hopeful projection of what might happen, and then a realistic one. I guess those are still predictions…oh well.
If Racing can go into halftime at 0-0 or 1-1, there is a chance to snatch and grab victory late. If they are down 1-0 at half they might grab a point late. Optimisticly I am going to say Racing gets a draw that feels like a win.
However if I'm realistic I think we'll see a one goal defeat and say “Well, it would've been, could've been worse than you would ever know.”
