Know Your Foe (with Grant Little from Stumptown Footy)

I got a Sophia Smith card in one of my NSWL Trading Card Packs. Is she the one to watch?

Courtesy of Parkside Cards

Grant Little from Stumptown Footy was kind enough to give me his thoughts on the Matchup between Racing and the Portland Thorns on Saturday, June 5th at…ugh 10:30 EDT. Take a mid-afternoon nap Racing fans!

Congrats on the Challenge Cup Victory.  Any piece of silverware is always welcome, but I imagine the ultimate goal is to win the league.  How realistic is that for the Thorns this year?

The team has been pretty candid in all of their press conferences that they want to win every competition that they play in. It was their goal to win the Challenge Cup which they did. Now they will turn their head to the race for the NWSL Shield which they will also strive to win. But the Thorns’ ultimate objective will be to win the NWSL Championship for the first time since Lindsey Horan’s goal delivered the title in 2017.

I believe fans are back at Providence Park.  What are your attendance expectations this year?

Providence Park is allowing 25% capacity at the moment. Usually the stadium holds 25,218 but the max capacity under the current restrictions is just above 6,300. Hopefully, the number of fans allowed at the stadium increases as the season progresses and more people get vaccinated, but even with 6,300 the Thorns fans have made their presence felt. 

On May 1, Merritt Paulson (Timbers/Thorns owner) tweeted that there will be a big announcement about stadium plans coming this week so the capacity may be increased for the match on Saturday. 

With this being an Olympics year, how many players are you expecting the Thorns to lose for the those games and do you feel like there is enough depth on the team to cover absences?

It’s logical to plan for the absence of Christine Sinclair, Crystal Dunn, Lindsey Horan and Becky Sauerbrunn. All of those players should be locks for their respective national teams. The only real question is whether Sophia Smith and Adrianna Franch will be called up to the U.S. Women’s National Team. Personally, I think it is unlikely Smith makes the 18-player roster, considering the amount of experienced attacking talent at Vlatko Andonovski’s disposal, but she has played well for the Thorns and in her brief minutes for the USWNT. There is a possibility she makes the roster but I think there is a greater chance of her being listed as an alternate for the U.S. 

Franch may make the roster, she may be an alternate or she might not make either. Franch was recently called up for the first time since the 2020 SheBelieves Cup so it may be a case of having too little time to sneak on to the roster. But two keepers will make the roster and one will be listed as an alternate and she was one of the three keepers called up, which should be a good sign for Franch’s chances of being part of the USWNT that travels to Japan.

The Thorns definitely have enough depth to succeed without their international stars. Obviously, it is impossible to replace the likes of Sinclair, Dunn, Horan and Sauerbrunn but the Thorns showed they can stick to their identity and get results without these players at the beginning of the Challenge Cup. 

Morgan Weaver, Celeste Boureille, Marissa Everett, Rocky Rodriguez and Tyler Lussi, among many others, stepped up to help the Thorns get the three points vs. Kansas City and an away win against the Chicago Red Stars without these players. The Thorns have a distinct style and will stick to it regardless of who lines up. They may not have as much of the ball during the Olympic stretch but they will retain much of their backline and forwards and have dangerous pieces they can slide into the midfield to replace the internationals. Also, Bella Bixby demonstrated her quality in the 2020 NWSL Challenge Cup and will be able to step into goal if Franch is called up.

Six points from twelve is a decent start, but not great.  What will be the keys to finishing at the top or in one of the prime playoff positions?

The team has been really disappointed about their start. Yes, they have two wins but the two losses hurt, especially considering that they played pretty well during the two matches but were undone due to the oppositions’ efficiency with few chances and the Thorns lack of efficiency despite having more chances and more of the ball.

The keys for finishing in the top two for the race for the Shield will come down to a few things. The Thorns need to limit mistakes that gift the opposition quality chances in transition, especially in their own final third. We saw this come back to bite the Thorns in both of their regular season losses.

Portland also needs to be better in front of goal. The Thorns have outperformed everyone they have played in xG(expected goals). The Thorns are creating the opportunities they need to win games but have been hesitant or have tried to be too precise in front of goal. If the Thorns improve in the final third I think it will spell trouble for the rest of the league.

Finally, the Portland Thorns will need to manage the Olympics. Players will need to step up when the internationals are gone and Mark Parsons will have to figure out how to reintegrate the internationals after the Olympics. The Thorns will also have to manage extra matches. They are hosting the Women’s International Champions Cup which will make them play two more matches than every other team in the league except Houston, who is also participating in the tournament.  (Editor’s note: Racing and the Red Stars have 2 extra games at well through The Women’s Cup. Reserve you tickets today!)

Despite potentially missing up to six players during the Olympics, I think that period could prove crucial to the Thorns’ success. They are one of the deepest, most talented teams in the league and I believe they can consistently get results during the Olympic period whereas other teams may struggle more without their internationals.

To whom do Racing fans really need to pay special attention during the match?

There are so many players to pick from and as soon as you focus on one player another international superstar could step up and make you pay. That being said, I have to go with Sophia Smith. Horan, Sinclair and Dunn usually take the headlines and Dunn scored a wonderful goal and played her best match of the season against NJ/NY Gotham FC. However, I thought Smith was the player of the match in Red Bull Arena.

Smith was very unlucky not to score in the match. Despite this, she constantly tormented Gotham’s flank. She has the ability to beat players off the dribble, get in behind, hold-up play and can finish expertly. Smith is growing into this Thorns side and I don’t think it will be long until she is scoring for fun and getting regular starts for the USWNT.

What's your score prediction for the game this Saturday?

I think the Thorns will benefit from finally having some rest after this stretch of three matches in eight days. It will also give the team more time to diagnose what has gone wrong during that period and attempt to remedy it. Because of all of this, in addition to the match being at Providence Park, I’ll predict a 2-0 win for the Thorns courtesy of goals from Sinclair and Smith. 

Thanks again to Grant. You can follow Stumptown Footy on Twitter @StumptownFooty or Grant personally @grantlittle09.