Taking out the Trash (clearing out the archive)
Before the Yates Report was published, I was working on 2 articles, one for the State of Louisville website and one for this one. On the State of Louisville website, I wrote quarterly reviews of the season. I had completed and submitted for publication the Fourth Quarter review of Louisville’s season. An hour later, the Yates report was published, and I pulled it back and it was never published on the State of Louisville website. I am going to present it here, unedited, to draw a close to my 2022 work for the State of Louisville, so that I can start fresh in 2023. The other piece that I was working on was a season review for this site. I had started to write it simultaneously but didn’t get more than 25% of the way through. Here is the fourth quarter review presented from my state of mind on October 3, 2022.
Racing Louisville: 2022 Fourth Quarter Review
Racing's performances ranged from total disaster to pure bliss in the last six matches of the season, but ultimately lead to hope for 2023
In my first quarter review of Racing Louisville's season, I decided to divide the season up into uneven quarters comprising of matches in a 5-6-5-6 format. I was full of optimism after the first five matches, and it was pretty much straight downhill from there. Now that the season is complete, here are the points totals for those four arbitrary divisions:
First Five: 8 Points
Next Six: 2 Points
Next Five: 4 Points
Last Six: 9 Points
You can argue that the first five matches were a better performance with 1.6 points per match or you could argue that the Last Six were better with 9 points won. Earning 1.6 points per match would have put Racing in 6th place and in line for the last playoff spot. At the top of the league there isn't much distance between winning the shield (which the OL Reign did with 40 points) and just missing the playoffs (which the North Carolina Courage did with 32 points). With 23 points, Racing still seems quite a sizable distance from the upper echelons of the league. All thing considered, Racing did perform better this season, but not good enough to been seen as more than a good early-season story. While they ended up with 23 points, which is one more than last year and finished ahead of three teams instead of just one, they were still in 9th place (due to the two new California teams that both finished ahead of Racing). It could have been much, much worse and things looked to be headed toward disaster after their biggest match of the season: the Fill the Fam game on August 27th.
Hitting a wall
Racing's third quarter of the season was mostly defined by decent performances but middling results. However, those performances didn't convince me enough to predict the team from finishing higher than 11th. On August 27th, Racing laid an absolute egg in front of the crowd at Lynn Family Stadium. If you are a glutton for punishment, you can relive the embarrassment here and here on my blog and on an emergency episode of Butchertown Rundown. I advise you to not do that. Racing then followed up a 4-0 home loss to the Red Stars with a 1-5 capitulation vs. the North Carolina Courage on the road. This resulted in a rather frank assessment from Jess McDonald in which she basically identified the problem as a lack of identify and the players not believing in themselves. There are some other, unspoken items that Jess will not discuss. I asked off the record and Paul Miles of 840 WHAS gave it a shot after Racing's last match on October 1st, but Jess seems steadfast in remaining tight lipped about the other things that might have contributed to the drop in performance. Coach Björkegren has mentioned the first-year players not being used to the grueling NWSL schedule when compared to the NCAA schedule or the relentlessly high level of competition in the NWSL as being reasons for the midseason drop in form. I think it's just as likely that the front office's handling of the roster during the season killed the ability to rotate effective players into the lineup especially during the international break for the Euros and CONCACAF. It could be something else, too. Regardless, it culminated in 2 back-to-back losses that for a brief period looked like it may have sent the rest of the season into a tailspin.
Thank goodness for the league's long-standing punching bag: the Orlando Pride. Racing played a bizarre match at Dayton International Speedway (doesn't "International" imply that the track transverses the border across more than one sovereign nation?) earlier in the year in which they led 2-0 but ultimately drew 2-2 and featured a definitively not-top-choice back four of Milliet-Lester-Bonner-Martin. At full strength, Racing rather easily cruised to victory on September 16th. I think relief was the overarching emotion, but it did seem to instill the team with some confidence. It also started Racing's late-season persona as a spoiler (the victory over the Pride either virtually or actually eliminated Orlando from playoff contention, but any NWSL fan will tell you that they were never a serious threat.)
One inevitable step back, then two steps forward
Racing then made a 2-match west coast trip to play the much more intimidating Portland Thorns and the now unmasked-Scooby-Doo-villain-styled frauds of Angel City. Racing has never beaten or the Thorns and only ever scored once. The 3-0 loss to the Thorns was predictable, but a very good defensive first 45 gave Racing fans a little hope that was quickly erased by allowing 3 goals in the next 11 minutes, capped off by a goal from a high-school-aged teenager (the very, very talented Olivia Moultrie). Racing was never likely to win that match, so I don't believe they were too devastated. That was on display in their next two matches.
This year's vintage of Racing didn't have two sweeter victories than the last two matches of the season. Their victory in LA greatly reduced Angel City's ability to make the playoffs and took away their ability to control their own destiny. The last-minute victory vs. KC moved them from hosting a home playoff match to going on the road vs. Houston. The former was notable in that it was Racing's first ever come from behind win on the road. I don't think I would label the Banc of California crowd as "hostile", but I would say that they were rather enthusiastic, especially after Angel City scored one of the luckiest and ugliest goals you will ever see in the 14th minute. Racing equalized on Davis's fine strike in the 37th minute (made and assisted by Jaelin Howell) and were leading at half due to Alex Chidiac's converted penalty. In the second half, Racing probably did its best job of the year in defending a lead. They conceded some possession, but it definitely wasn't one-sided. In the waning moments they got the third goal on a fine finish from Emia Ekic (assisted by Emily Fox). I don't know if there is a consensus about which is more fun for an athlete, silencing a road crowd or sending a home crowd into pure hysteria. Luckily Racing players experienced both as Jessica McDonald stole 2 points for Racing late into stoppage time against the Kansas City Current at home. One thing is for sure: McDonald absolutely relished her goal.
What's next for Racing?
To me, the big offseason question is: Who will be on the Matchday 1 squad? For all of the feel-good vibes around winning 3 out of the last 4 matches, all that it really did from a roster building perspective is make Racing's draft position worse. There is really good talent available at the fourth pick (see Sav DeMelo), but if there is one position that is most valuable in the NWSL especially when you don't have it, it is a high-quality center back. I don't think it is any secret that Racing would like to take Emily Madril at 4. The question is: Will she be available? The league already holds her rights, which does two things. It allows her to play overseas until she is drafted and retain her eligibility, but then she must go to the team that drafts her. Previously, drafted players like Mia Fishel could opt out to join another league, which in Fishel's case was Liga MX Femenil via the Tigres UANL. Fishel was drafted by Orlando and never played there. For Racing and Madril a union would make sense in that she is already familiar with the club through its USL W League team and through practicing with the first team during the summer. Plus, I think she would walk into the Starting XI. However, there isn't a definitive draft projection source for the NWSL, so information is hard to find at least until the NCAA season is over. Even then, it is not exactly clear who the best players are. Either way, I am of the opinion that Racing will look defense with its first pick. After the first round, the chances of finding an impact player have fallen significantly since the league expanded last year. It may be a one-year blip, but Racing got only 1 player after the first round that is still on the roster and she played zero league minutes (back-up keeper Jordyn Bloomer). For the first time there will be NWSL free agency, but I don't think signing NWSL free agents fits into Racing's philosophy.
Therefore, I think Racing will once again try to find international players or work out a transfer if there is a current NWSL player that they want. The biggest bet for Racing is that their younger players will improve. DeMelo, Howell, and Fox will be the key core, but they will need improved production from Ekic and Davis, a healthy Thembi Kgatlana or Nadia Nadim (neither a guarantee), a maintained or better level performance from Wang Shuang, and at least two more NWSL-level defenders. Gemma Bonner has a player option, but also a partner and potentially a nice broadcasting career waiting for her in England. Satara Murray is a nice player but is probably a borderline starter. Rebecca Holloway seemed to win and lose a starting job in the matter of two matches. Julia Lester is best suited at outside back. Nealy Martin was rarely used after being a key contributor in year one. Zaneta Wyne was signed as a national team replacement player and has played sparingly since she signed. The fact of the matter is that this roster is probably 10th or 11th best roster on paper in the NWSL, so 9th place is an over achievement.
The good news is that there will be no enforced roster turnover this offseason, so Racing will not lose a player like Kaleigh Riehl. I don't know how much difference she would have made, but her absence was definitely felt. Racing lost a player in what turned out to be its thinnest position. I know that Racing did not want to lose her, and I heard that attempts were made to try to bring her back. She is 25 and started 17 matches for the Wave, and will likely be a starter in their upcoming playoff match. I imagine that she is settled in San Diego, but if there is one player I would like back, it is her.
The offseason will definitely set the tone for next year. Racing couldn't get Björkegren in soon enough to shape the roster in the preseason, so he did that in the summer transfer window. This year I expect and hope for way less turnover. With a couple of more pieces, Racing could make a playoff push in year 3.
I am probably less rosy than I was then on the prospects for Louisville in 2023, especially as the roster sits today on January 9, 2023.
The next piece was going to be a bit more like a performance report/report card. After reading the Yates Report I couldn’t stomach doing this anymore. Give a little time and space, I think the points are still valid on the sections that I completed, so I will present them as written as of October 2, 2023.
Post Season Report Card
The idea of doing a post season report card for this year’s Racing Louisville squad seems like a daunting task. I could go with your standard A-F or A-U scale, but that seems awful harsh and tends to get people too focused on the letter grade and not the commentary. In lieu of that scale, I think a more of a performance rating approach is indicated. Let’s break down the categories like this:
Unacceptable - Glaring issues that will require change
Disappointing - Needs (but is capable of) improvement
As expected - Met expectations in all areas
Outstanding - Had exceptional performance in at least one area
The other difficult part is to determine who to evaluate, so I will use this framework. I will evaluate the front office as a whole, the coaching staff as a whole, and every player that had an appearance for Racing separately. Since I am avoiding the “report card” format, I can use my own expectations to evaluate vs. grading on a scale that skews toward rewarding the best players for simply being the best. In essence, I wouldn’t evaluate Jess McDonald under the same criteria as Parker Goins. The nuance here is that for players who left Racing, I will only evaluate them on their appearances for Racing. Obviously, any Dash fan would presumably rate Ebony Salmon as an “Outstanding” for her performance in Houston, but her brief time at Racing was squarely in the “Disappointing” category whether that was entirely in her control or not.
Unacceptable
The Front Office: I had this section completely written when the NWSL Report into player abuse was released on Monday. I think all of the points are still valid, so I am going to leave it below as written. I will put it in italics as to differentiate between my frame of mind on Sunday October 2nd vs. Monday October 3rd. Now based on the report released on Monday, I think it highlights the tone-deafness that this front office has in regard to its ability to respond appropriately to player concerns. None of the things in the report point to anything from this season as far as I can tell, but the club hid behind the legal issue of non-disclosure to cowardly avoid the ultimate moral responsibility to identify a predator and make him known.
Almost every move that the team executed made sense in and of itself. Collectively they were puzzling at best and negligent at worst. I stand by my evaluation that the club basically forfeited the middle of the season due to the volatility in the roster during the summer transfer window. If there was a plan, it wasn’t executed in a way that made sense to me or many other fans. The Racing front office needs more women’s soccer expertise. If they enter year 3 without a major addition it will be very bad in my opinion. I don’t know or believe a single person in the front office to be doing a poor job. It’s just incomplete in NWSL knowledge. Until that fact is recognized, I don’t know if circumstances will greatly improve. There are nuances to this league that you almost have to live through to understand. Racing has lived through 2 years of this now, but I still don’t think that is enough to bridge the knowledge gap. Maybe I am wrong, but regardless of the intrinsic advantages that the two California expansion teams had, they had people with NWSL experience in vital positions. Their first year sucess is surely due to this in part. The club needs to get over whatever ill feelings they still might have around the expansion draft if it is ever to move forward. I hope I never hear anyone bring that up again.
Disappointing
The Coaching Staff: At point in time this season, their rating likely vacillated between Unacceptable and As Expected, but I settled on an overall Rating of Disappointing, but closer to As Expected. Based on just about every measure, this season was an improvement on the pitch. However, I think Coach Björkegren might have slightly underestimated his ability to make a transformational impact. This year’s team is definitely coached better but is still prone to committing the same errors. At times Björkegren has shown flexibility and adaptability, but I think it took him too long to find the right group of players to play together. I don’t think that it’s an accident that Racing won its last two matches while using a back four comprised of 4 defenders vs. 3 and a midfielder. Milliet has still played in every single match but made her 50th NWSL start in the last match and that probably is a microcosm of the selection issues. Björkegren didn’t trust all of his defenders but made the most changes to that part of the roster during his tenure, so you have to feel like he had input on the acquisitions of Lester, Holloway, Murray and Wyne. Sh’Nia Gordon was likely signed based on his recommendation and made next to no impact and is now gone. His most recent gameday squads had 3 keepers on the bench, simply because there is room as the number of available outfield substitutes is so small. I believe his biggest flaw this season is believing that he can find effective players in other leagues and immediately move them into the lineup. He is surely looking for players who want to play in his style but has sacrificed talent to do so (Salmon). Many other fans hate that he doesn’t substitute much, but to me that is indicative of the lack of depth on the bench. Publicly he had stated that he doesn’t make changes just to make them and hesitates to make subs if the team is playing well. I personally believe he is protected the rest of the squad a bit by not stating the reality: the back end of the squad isn’t good enough. Unfortunately for him, he also partially responsible for who is on the roster and mostly responsible for the club keeping a small roster.
However, as Jess McDonald stated in her post match interview after the last match, the coaches learned as the year went along as well as the players. Björkegren doesn’t strike me as over stubborn. I think he will use the offseason to look to make changes to the roster that are needed but will have also learned his lesson to only use the summer transfer window as way to get transformational talent and not to tweak the roster. If you look at the last 4 matches, I think you could bump up his rating to “As Expected”. Winning 3 out of 4 matches against teams that absolutely had something to play for is nothing to sneeze at. As recently as September 10th, this team looked like it could be in danger of phoning in the rest of the season. It is a credit to him that the players fought hard to win these matches. If the players wanted him gone, they could have easily folded and cost him his job. The did the opposite and surely secured his job for at least the start of a second season. The jury is still out on whether he will work out, but that is better that already being found guilty of not being the right coach.
I had made it to the point in writing this article where I rated two players as disappointing, but I have chosen to redact the commentary for those players.
Even if no one bothers to read this, I wanted to publish these pieces as to close the book on the 2022 season in my head, and to clear the slate for next season.
