Who will score for Louisville in 2023?

Jan 5

Louisville scored 22 goals (plus one own goal) in the 2022 season. If the team is going to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, they will have to maintain at least a neutral goal differential. Based on the last few seasons, there has been at least one team that has made the playoff with a zero goal differential. As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t expect much immediate improvement on the defensive end of things, so based on last season’s performance, Louisville probably needs to score goals in the 35 to 40 range. To keep things semi-realistic, I will use the bottom end of that range to set goal targets for players on the current roster. I don’t expect the team to draft a real goal-scoring threat at number 4, due to the need for interior defense, but the club also needs goals so it wouldn’t be a total shock to draft another forward at 4. Past the first round, I don’t see many players making a first-year contribution. I will start with the players that will need to contribute the most goals and work my way to those who should be looking to chip in a goal or two.

Kirsten Davis (5-7 goals)

Kirsten was recently married, and the official team twitter account hinted at a name change to “Kirsten Wright”, but for now I will still refer to as Davis as that is how she is officially listed on the club roster. With all of the mounting injuries at forward including the recent announcement on Ekic’s injury, Davis will almost certainly start to begin Louisville's season. Jess McDonald has mentioned several times that she likes playing with Davis up front, so will be looking to supply her heavily during the early part of the season. Kirsten scored 2 goals in 18 appearances last year, so this would be quite a significant step up in production. However, the club really needs to find a reliable goal scorer early in the season so expect Davis to get plenty of opportunities and service from her teammates.

Jess McDonald (3-5 goals)

Jess’s unselfishness may work against he in the early part of the season if Davis isn’t immediately able to start scoring consistently. McDonald looked to pass before shooting several times during matches last year but may just have to be a little greedier this year, especially early in the season. If she can keep her overall goal contributions (goals and assists) in the 8-10 range, it will matter less if those 8-10 are goals vs. assists.

Nadia Nadim (3-5 goals)

When Nadia is healthy, she scores. However, recovering from a second knee injury in two years may again limit her appearances for Racing. Last season, there was a bit more transparency into a timetable for her return. I don’t recall seeing any speculation on when she might return in 2023 or if she will return. My money is on a late season return and a return to her scoring form. Let’s just hope it’s not a case of too little, too late.

Thembi Kgatlana (2-4 goals)

There is no real timetable yet for Kgatlana’s return either. One has to assume that since her injury occurred prior to Nadim’s that she would return to competitive action sooner, but that surely isn't guaranteed. However, she was brought in to score goals, so we will just have to assume that is what she will do. I think she is skilled enough to score more but factoring in the limits of returning from an injury and getting readjusted to the NWSL, I think 3 goals is the target.

Emina Ekic (2-4 goals)

Ekic found some real goal-scoring form in Australia, so her injury is a real shame. When she returns to action, I think we can all agree that this needs to be her breakout year. Looking on the bright side, Ekic will probably be reintegrated into the team as a sub when she returns from injury. I like her as a game changing substitute, so this may give her the opportunity to pick right back up where she left off in Australia. Look for her to push for a starting role as her fitness increases.

Sav DeMelo (2-4 goals)

DeMelo scored 4 goals last season and if she can improve on that total, the goal scoring burden on her teammates may lessen and subsequently Louisville may find themselves in better position in the table. However, it seems unfair to demand 4 goals from her every season. She will likely take her fair share of free kicks again, but Wang may also find herself in the mix on those. This may be the first time I have ever written this next sentence, but it surely won’t be the last. This team goes as far as Sav DeMelo goes.

Parker Goins (1-3 goals)

I am still really high on Parker Goins. I think she has the ability to score goals and change games. Through injuries, she may get her chance early this season, especially in a 4-3-3 formation. We have seen that Coach Björkegren will have Lauren Milliet on the pitch somewhere, so Parker will have to show in the preseason that she is ready to force the team into a formation that pushes Milliet into the midfield or (lord help us) defense. I have a feeling that if and when the first goal goes in for Parker, the floodgates could open. Alternatively, if she struggles for minutes again someone else unexpected will have to step up and score more goals than anticipated.

Wang Shuang (1-3 goals)

I thought Wang was impressive in her brief spell with the team last year. She didn’t score in the league, but scored in the Women’s Cup, so we know that she has goal in her. I don’t think a free kick goal is beyond her either. Her goal contributions and attacking influence might show themselves more through build-up play, so I think she will be involved in way more goals than she is ultimately credited. A preseason in Louisville will do her loads of good.

Alex Chidiac (1-3 goals)

I feel like Alex’s opportunities to score will come from pieces of individual brilliance, which she has shown from time to time. She has two goals and an assist in six appearances in the A-League, so maybe she can bring that form back with her to Louisville. I think she would be delighted with 3 goals, but the NWSL defensives are a little sturdier that what she is experiencing again in the A-League, so one or two goals is more likely.

Emily Fox (1-3 goals)

Fox has it in her arsenal to be a high-scoring defender, but that part of her game hasn’t been in full display for Louisville yet. I think year 3 for her could be the one where we see her full abilities on display, but I will be a little conservative and say that one more than last year will be her contribution on the goals side. I am concerned that she will once again have her hands full with defensive duties, so even two goals may be a stretch if the defense is worse than last year, which frankly is entirely within the realm of possibility.

Ary Borges (0-2 goals)

My prediction for Borges is a complete shot in the dark. I don’t really know how the team will deploy her. I have seen comments that she may sit deep with Howell. That could open DeMelo up to attack more, but your midfielders should be looking to find themselves in scoring positions from time to time regardless of how deep they are sitting. It’s really hard to be very sure of how she might contribute until I see her in at least a practice setting.

Lauren Milliet (0-2 goals)

Lauren will surely be on the pitch somewhere, but whether that is in a position with more attacking duties than defensive ones is a big question mark. My opinion is that she belongs in midfield, but necessity might dictate that she finds herself on the wing in a defensive role again. Either way, she isn’t a pure scorer so a goal or two would be a fine contribution.

Jae Howell (0-2 goals)

Howell definitely looked better as the season progressed, but in my opinion that was in line with her fully embracing her defensive responsibilities. She is still good for a shot from distance and will be a threat on corners. It’s not beyond imagination to see her with 4 to 5 goals, but 1 or 2 seems like the right expectation.

Elli Pikkujämsä (0-2 goals)

This could just as easily be “central defender” goals, but Pikkujämsä seems slightly more likely to score based on her previous record. Murray or a yet-to-be-signed-or-drafted defender might find herself in the right position to score a goal, but these aren’t goals that the team should be counting on.

Summary

If everyone hits the midpoint of my targets, that will put the team at 35 goals. This being the NWSL, the odd own goal may help out here or there to make it 36 or 37 goals. This team will surely need that many goals to compete in 2023.

Michael Shaw