Louisville 0 San Diego 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
The main storyline from last night (from a Louisville fan's perspective at least, I don’t want to get into Alex Morgan's intermittent availability to play or fully commit to club football) was probably the inability of their forwards to find the back of the net. Louisville needs some kind of production soon from its forwards to even have a shot at the playoffs.
If you aren’t a fan of math and the reality of numbers, I will suggest that you not visit this space for the remainder of the season. Louisville's biggest opponent for the rest of the season is the mathematical reality they have created for themselves when it comes to reaching the playoffs. Bekki Morgan pointed out on Twitter that for all of the progress that has been made, Louisville only sits one point better than at the same time last season. I would like to think that I am a big picture thinker, and when it comes to this club I really believe that I am, more than most fans. While I detail my thoughts on each match, my general state of mind is always looking towards the bigger picture. Last night in a microcosm wasn't a bad result. In the grand scheme of things it was incredibly damaging. I think that it's human nature to focus on the most recent result or the most recent information. However, this team has a forest problem. The trees are healthier and more appealing, but the forest hasn't grown enough. It's barely 9% better than last year when at least 33% better is what is needed. When I read some comments I tend to think a decent section of the fanbase really can't see the forest for the trees.
It's also blatantly clear what the current problem is. Irrespective of your opinion on the style of play, the team simply doesn't have a reliable goal-scoring forward available at the moment. Those aren't a dime a dozen either, so no simple summer transfer will be guaranteed to solve the problem. The teams whose center forwards have at least 4 goals this season are San Diego, Portland, Gotham, Washington and North Carolina. Those teams also occupy 5 of the top six spots in goals conceded. All of them are in playoff position other than North Carolina, who is one point out as of Saturday morning. The recipe for success in my opinion is get goals up front and be sturdy in the back. Only the OL Reign spreads the goal scoring around enough to overcome a below league average goal concession rate. DeMelo is Louisville's only real scoring threat at the moment. Her recent heat maps show her in a more attack oriented role. I compared DeMelo's heat map from last night to Kgatlana's. While DeMelo still has more touches in the defensive half their attacking points are very similar. One thing to keep an eye on is whether the reliance on DeMelo's attacking prowess starts to leave things open at the back, especially on counters.
DeMelo’s Heatmap
Kgatlana’s heatmap
None of Louisville's shots on target last night seemed clinical enough to make Sheridan irrelevant. Louisville's last really clinical finish (I don’t count Baggett's deflected header) in the league was 4 macthes ago with Davis's finish on the counter against Kansas City. If Louisville needs to create a volume of shots to score one, last night's effort wasn't nearly good enough.
On a positive note the defensive effort last night was good. If Louisville continues to keep clean sheets or only give up single goals, it's not impossible that the playoffs are out of reach. Again, they will need goal from somewhere, but they have always spread the scoring around. They just need more of it.
I'm not shy about counting Milliet as one of my favorite players. Last night she showed her continued growth as a right back. Several times she quickly converted a defensive stop into offensive momentum. As a right sided partner, Wang had a better match than she did in Washington. I do wonder if things could be shuffled around a bit more up front for Louisville to play without a center forward with Monaghan switching to the right side and Wang dropping deeper in the middle. That's just me daydreaming however.
