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KC NWSL 2 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Coach Holly used the word hangover to describe the effort last night, and I have to admit that I thought of that word too based on Racing's first half performance. “Fatigue” was used as an explanation if not an excuse seemingly every minute during the match commentary on Paramount Plus. Whatever the reason, the first half effort was poor. KC had done nothing in my eyes to indicate that an effort like the one that put forward against Racing was forthcoming. They looked frankly awful against Racing in Louisville earlier this month. The announcing team said that they “played well" in a 4-0 loss vs. NCC in Cary, but how well could you have played losing by 4 goals? Regardless, KC didn't necessarily look like the better team last night, but the effort they put forward meant they got to enjoy all 3 points. Sometimes a team can win a game in a single half.
While it was encouraging to see Racing pull back a goal with plenty of time to spare, a 2 goal deficit is a tough hill to climb for most teams, let alone an expansion one. I asked Sean Rollins who covers the Orlando Pride at what point did he feel like Orlando was no longer an expansion team. He said it took into the second year. I think that's a fair assessment. However, Racing is still on pace to set the expansion team record for points and win percentage, and have won a trophy. I was hoping that maybe they could shake off that expansion label a little earlier, but I think based on last night's performance it’s going to apply for the remainder of the season.
Speaking of the trophy, I stick by my assessment that Racing needed to win in KC for that victory in The Women's Cup to be an unqualified success. The trophy now came with a verifiable cost. There was no guarantee that if Racing had completely rested its normal starters for the Women's Cup final that it would have picked up all 3 points in KC, but if a “hangover” is going to be used as an excuse then I get to say that the trophy is a bit tarnished. The good news is that the tarnish is only temporary and will hopefully be forgotten by the time the season is over. For now it seems like Racing potentially sacrificed at least 3 points in the league for a (let's be completely honest here) “minor trophy”. I think that's probably a fair trade in a league that they aren't going to win. Arsene Wenger, Arsenal's greatest coach used to say that qualifying for the Champions League is “like a trophy". He was lambasted in the press for saying this during a 9 year trophy drought at Arsenal in which they qualified for the Champions League every year. Now almost every team in England would rather qualify for the Champions League vs. win the FA Cup, let alone a smaller honor. I say this because I would consider “First Expansion Team to Qualify for the NWSL Playoffs” a higher honor/accomplishment that winning an exhibition trophy. However, they don’t give out a trophy for that and qualifying for the playoffs seems less likely now.
Back to last night's match for a few comments. Sometimes you can throw the stats away after a match because they provide almost no illumination. Your eyes told you all you needed to know last night. KC clearly jumped on Racing's slow start and pelted the Racing goal with shots and crosses until they got a lead. They used Racing's continued sloppiness to get a second. If you need one stat to explain the match I guess shots on goal will do the trick. KC won that battle 7 to 2.
Racing has to recover from their hangover quickly because they have a match to play in Houston on Saturday before returning home to host OL Reign. Racing will likely not be favored to win any of their remaining matches, so now we get to see if this team is really ready to fight for a playoff spot.
KC NWSL 2 Racing 1
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing showed that they are not quite ready to be a consistent team yet. I don't buy the fatigue narrative given by the Paramount Plus team. You can't lift a trophy and then put in a performance like this. Winning a trophy also means I also won’t pull any punches in my player ratings going forward.
Betos-6: Typical game. Had to make too many saves, but I wonder if she got caught a little flat footed on the second KC goal.
Fox-6: Anonymous for the most part. Not her best effort.
Simon-4: Needed taking off if just to get some rest. Also needed a teammate to shout that she had time on the own goal, but still made an absolutely awful mess of it.
Riehl-6: Solid, but unspectacular.
Bonner-6: I think she must have broken a mirror while walking under a ladder and stepping on a crack in the pavement, because she has had a rough few games physically. Still fought hard.
McCaskill-5: For some reason looked two steps slower going forward vs. defending. Seemed to always pick the wrong way to pivot when in possession too.
Nagasato-6: I thought she injected some energy in the 2nd half.
Olofsson-4: Racing finally paid the price for overworking her. Her bad pass led to goal one and was caught flat-footed on the second.
Salmon-5: Seems like a different player when she plays too wide. Tonight she often received tbe ball in wide areas, but could do nothing with it.
Nadim-7: Surely only substituted to protect her hamstring. Her class shows in every match. Racing's chances of finding a second goal fell precipitously when she was subbed off.
Kizer-8 (Player of the Match): Hit a stunning goal from a difficult angle. Had 2 chances created as well.
Otto-6: Steady as a replacement for Olofsson.
Miramontez-5: Played fine until the first yellow. Then absolutely deserved a straight red for the hair pull. I’m not sure how the NWSL reviews cards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that second yellow upgraded to red.
KC NWSL v Racing Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
These two teams faced each other about two and a half weeks ago, so I don’t think much has changed other than this match being in KC vs. Louisville. In a nutshell, KC is the worst team in the league by quite a distance. For a comparison, Racing are closer to 3rd place Washington (6 points) than they are to last place KC (9 points). The key to this match will be for Racing to put on a calm, professional performance and leave KC with 3 points. That should be the expectation at this point. If Racing can take care of business, they will enter the weekend at 19 points and be within striking distance of a playoff spot. In my opinion other than Portland and North Carolina, no other team can feel safe about securing a playoff spot. It's basically a 7 team race for 4 spots. I was just about ready to write off Racing at the end of July, but now I think they have a shot. It's probably the least likely of the 7 to ultimately make the playoffs, but the team has to be brimming with confidence.
That is why this match is probably the most important match of the league season so far. A draw or a loss won't eliminate Racing from the playoff picture, but winning a match like this where you are the favorite is key to the growth of the club. Prior to this match I didn't feel like any outcome would have been a disaster. Anything other than 3 points here still may not qualify as a disaster, but it would be close.
Racing should be somewhat rested. I think Betos should be good based on media reports and the brief interaction I had with her on Saturday while she was toting a toddler around the field following her trophy lift. I think the fact that Nadia Nadim was on the bench means that she should be available, but that will depend on how her hamstring feels during warm up on Wednesday evening. Other than that, I expect the injury report to be the same as it has been. Hendrix could be on there, but was fine after the match according to her comments to me. One of the nice things that players do is stick around to sign autographs after matches. One of the hazards of this is me asking questions after they sign a few items. However, I generally only ask about how they are feeling. I didn't want to mislead anyone into thinking that I have any extra access other than the access that my seats provide. I am usually too busy during the week with work or busy writing players ratings after the match to engage in any proper media outlets that Racing provides. Full disclosure: I did get invited to the reception the Racing hosted for the Women's Cup, but I mostlly just talked to fellow content creators there, bar a quick picture with Gorp and a chat with Christy Holly about Arsenal. All of this to say that I don't get any extra insight or access into the club than any other fan could get. I’m just pushy enough to politely ask questions to players in hopes of getting a response.
Prediction time: Last time Racing played KC I predicted a Racing loss. I was blissfully incorrect. I don't believe in superstitions or jinxes so I’m going to say 2-1 to Racing with KC scoring a late goal to make the last few minutes a little nervous.
Racing 2 Bayern 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
If I were the head coach of Racing Louisville FC, I would have made a list of priorities for Saturday's match. My priorities would have been in this order:
Rest as many starters as you can.
Use the match to evaluate talent you normally don't get to see in a match.
Don't have any major injuries.
Win a trophy.
This is what I call “The Cup Strategy”. It is the tried and true method that the biggest clubs in Europe use in their domestic Cup competitions. The league is always the primary focus. If you have a European competition it is usually 1a. In England you have 2 domestic cups so those get to be used as chances to see younger players and fringe squad players. Since the cups clog up the schedule quite a bit, you have to rotate your squad. If you're lucky, you advance while saving your best players for more “important” competitions. Of course, if you continue to advance ultimately you use your best players to try to win a trophy.
Unfortunately there is no direct correlation for women's club soccer in America. The Challenge Cup is not played during the regular season, so there is no need to rotate for it. I wish their was a Cup competition. Maybe one day when there is a true Women's soccer pyramid in America.
In Racing's case you have the Women's Cup. How do you rank this trophy? If you played 6 matches over 5 months and survived and advanced, I think you would really value it, but probably not as much as a league trophy. To win this trophy Racing “won" two matches on penalties. It was exciting. It was good for the city. It was Racing's first “trophy”. It probably isn't super important. Or maybe said better: Racing's goal as an organization is to make this trophy less and less significant. It will always be remembered fondly, because it is the first trophy. Racing now has something even better than a trophy. They now have belief.
Don't get me wrong. I’m sure they had some belief prior to this: belief in the system, belief in their coaches, and belief in each other. Now the belief they have is the belief that than can win every match. Of course they won't win every match, but they should believe they can. I’m not sure that the team that took their first trip to Portland really believed they could win that match. Now they believe and know that they can.
But back to the match…
Every decision that Coach Holly made for this match seemed right to me.
He rested most of his regular starters, with only Betos and Simon starting. Betos never “needs" to rest and Simon rarely plays 90 minutes, and both were subbed off.
With Matthews struggling with what appeared to be cramping, and Bayern overwhelming the midfield in the last part of the first half, he brought on Freja Olofsson and changed formation.
He learned these tbings by his use of rotation:
Jorian Baucom probably deserves more playing time, but the strikers in front of her make her a victim of the numbers. Jorian was one of the big winners in my mind because her value to the team increased in everyone's mind and she will look pretty tempting to San Diego and Los Angeles in the expansion draft if she doesn't get much more playing time here.
Hendrix and Martin can still be counted on at center back.
Taylor Otto can give Freja an occasional break in the midfield.
Lauren Milliet has not had a drop in quality or effort, even if she has been dropped from the starting XI.
Your can trust Katie Lund as your backup keeper. Coach Holly said in a post match interview and reiterated when I asked him directly after the match that the plan was always to give her some game time in this match. It turned out better than anyone would have dared dream
He sent on some regular starters when the trophy was there for the taking. I was 95% certain that as soon as Racing went behind a goal, that Katie was getting minutes in goal. Coach Holly had her warm up almost immediately and gave her specific instructions. I don't want to put thoughts in his head that he didn't have, but if it was me I would have been thinking “We’ve played well, but now it time to see what I have in Katie, and it’s much easier to send her in down a goal.” Of course before she could come in the game was level. I think he decided to go for it at this point. On came Yuki, Savannah, Riehl for Hendrix and Lund for Betos.
He put the pressure on late. Early in the match neither team seemed too interested in pressing. Bayern pulled the trigger on their pressing in the later part of the first half. Racing reciprocated with extra pressure late, but with fresh legs.
The fans will always want to their team to win a trophy and beat a big name team. Fans want memories, but coaches want progress. Christy Holly was brave in his selection, but it was the right decision to rest starters in the grand scheme of things. If Racing would have lost, it still would have been the right decision. His team rewarded his decision with a nice victory.
There is one more thing needed to make this victory complete and that is to win Wednesday night in KC. There cannot be a trophy hangover. Win in KC and this victory will be even sweeter, because this victory was a very happy ancillary benefit of preparing for Wednesday.
Racing 2 (7) Bayern 2 (6)
I was going to write this win or lose: Coach Holly didn't get distracted by shiny things. In the end he had his cake and ate it too. Racing achieved winning a trophy and didn't have to burn their starters.
Betos-7: Had her usual good night before being subbed off for what I assume to be concussion concerns since Racing got a 7th sub.
Hendrix-7: Acquitted herself well before being subbed off with an injury.
Milliet-8: Showed that she is of starting quality and had the assist on Yuki's goal.
Miramontez-6: Steady, but had one great pass and one not so great give away.
Martin-7: Played the whole match and made a case to start again.
Simon-7: Will this woman ever get a day off?
Ekic-7: Played hard and was good going forward and in recovery.
Otto-7: Filled in admirably in Freja's usual spot.
Matthews-6: Will need to watch over her shoulder now to keep Baucom out of the squad.
McClure-6: A bit of an anonymous performance but had a few good touches.
Baucom-8: Her hard work paid off in a goal and probably earned herself some minutes.
Olofsson-7: No rest for the weary because Racing needed her to steady the midfield.
Nagasato-8: Hit a fantastic goal on the cross from Milliet. Worked hard in limited minutes.
Lund-9 (Player of the Match): An easy call. You make the last penalty for your team and save the next one, you get player of the match. It’s good to know what quality Racing has in its backup keeper.
Racing v Bayern Preview
I spent a very nice evening at the Muhammad Ali Center last night. If you would have told me on January 1st that I would spend 10 minutes talking to Christy Holly (about Arsenal of course) at an event celebrating a tournament that included Bayern Munich and PSG, I would have said you were joking. Anyway I found myself talking to new friends I had never met prior to this year, and taking a selfie with the most famous puppet in Louisville. It was a fun night.
This is supposed to be fun, right? The city of Louisville is having fun with this team. This tournament is fun. Twitter continues to baffle and amaze me. Most of my timeline is filled with selfies with Gorp and the players visiting Louisville enjoying the city. However, Twitter will gut punch you right between tweets of Gorp and reminders to attend The Women's Cup on Saturday.
If you haven't seen “What We do in the Shadows” on FX, you should immediately watch it. One of the funnier things on that show is the concept of “energy vampires" (Colin Robinson played by Mark Proksch is pictured above). They don't suck blood, but drain your energy either through boredom, forced empathy, or trolling. They basically suck the fun out of everything. I am convinced that Twitter is packed with energy vampires and they hang out in the women’s soccer feed. Can you imagine getting mad at the city of Louisville because a referee might have missed a goal in a penalty shoot out in a friendly match for a team you don't support? (I think the referee did miss the call by the way). Would you then equate this to the NWSL not being able to attract international talent? If this is you, I might suggest taking a long look in the mirror. (FYI, energy vampires can see themselves in the mirror, but they are a pale version of an actual human being.)
Now that I have that out of my system, here is my preview: This is a friendly match where I have no idea who is going to play on either team, and it doesn't matter because I am going to have fun. End of Preview. Enjoy the match.
Racing 1 Red Stars 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
On the whole a point from last night's match was a fair result, but Racing may consider themselves just slightly lucky based on their play in the final 20 or so minutes. It really was an odd match. Racing somehow won the possession battle 62% to 38% and had a much higher passing accuracy at 84% compared to 74%. It seemed like Racing just absorbed pressure continually over the last 20 or so minutes, so the possession numbers must have been much higher prior to that. I don't think you will see many matches where you out possess and out pass your opponents by such a wide margin AND get out shot 20 to 8. One stat that I believe really defined the match was crosses from open play. Chicago had 23 compared to Louisville's 5, 17 of those coming in the 2nd half. The Red Stars’ goal came as a result of one of those crosses. It was Simon with the “poor clearance” but I don't know what else she could have done. She was definitely on her back heels when the shot came in and I think it was more of a reaction block than a poor clearance. Either way, it showed the Red Stars their best plan of attack and they spent much of the 2nd half trying to replicate it. Betos had an outstanding match with 6 saves, and Racing as a team had several clearances.
Racing had chances too, but they seem to want to over pass in some situations. This is where they missed Nadim, who is always good for a few shots. Either way, no passing was needed on Salmon's goal where she ruthlessly gained possession from Colaprico and buried her shot. This goal was a textbook example of the danger of playing from the back. There is no room for error. It would be interesting to see how many goals like this have occurred world wide since FIFA changed the rule about the ball coming out of the 18 yard box on a restart.
While Racing earned a point, they also advanced to Saturday's final against Bayern. There was a lot of Bayern support in the stadium, so it should be a fun match on Saturday. The Chicago fans came to town too in what surely is the largest away support for any NWSL team at the Fam so far. Saturday's match will be interesting for a few reasons. Bayern and Racing will have to decide how many changes to make. It's obviously preseason for Bayern, so I would expect that they will have several changes to their starting XI. This trophy won't mean much to Bayern although they won't insult their hosts by saying so publicly. Why risk injury to a starter through overuse or contact in a friendly? Which seques nicely into my second observation: the style of play was vastly different in thr two matches on Wednesday. This was not unexpected, with the first match being a friendly and the second being a league match-up. However, if I were either Jens Scheuer or Didier Ollé-Nicolle and watched the Racing v Red Stars match I would be slightly worried about the difference in physicality that I saw. The opening match on Wednesday was a lot more free flowing and the second match was a lot more contentious with several fouls awarded and several more not called due to advantage given. It will be interesting to see who dictates style on Saturday. Racing will probably rotate some too on Saturday with another 2 match week coming up. I think there is zero chance that Nadim is risked on Saturday. She seemed to be in good spirits after the late scratch, but there is no need to send her out on Saturday.
The penalty shoot outs were a novelty that I’m glad we don't see very often. They are a necessary brutality, but make me nervous even if I don't care about either team. There is very little personal reward for scoring one, but missing one can be painful. I hope Bonner shakes off her miss. Betos and McClure were the heroes of the shootout, with Katie being lucky on a ricochet. For my money Miramontez had the best penalty for Racing. I hope Saturday's final is settled in full time.
Racing 1 Red Stars 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
It was a draw that was a win…sort of.
One point in the league was a fair result and good enough to face Bayern on Saturday. That will be a very interesting style match up, but more on that later.
Betos-8 (Player of the Match): Had several key stops in a wild second half.
Riehl-5/6: I have to go back and see if it was her poor clearance that led to the goal or someone else.
Bonner-7: Defended really well and probably prevented a few good chances for Chicago.
Simon 6/7: The other player that might have been responsible for the poor clearance. Otherwise had a good game, especially being on a yellow card so early.
Fox-7: At some point she needs to pull the trigger on a shot or continue one of her long dribbles further into the box.
Olofsson-7: Played well again, but will surely deserve a rest a some point. It's just hard to envision who takes her place.
McCaskill-6: Solid if unspectacular on the night. Worked hard as usual.
Nagasato-8: Yuki is the hardest player on the team to figure out. Sometimes she hustles her tail off like tonight, but sometimes she is invisible.
Salmon-7: Got one of those goals that you expect your striker to get from time to time by forcing an error and making the other team pay.
Kizer-8: I feel like she has a goal coming soon. Played a bit like Nadim in her absence.
Matthews-6: Played well for not expecting a start. Might have been better as a threat coming off the bench late however.
More tomorrow.
Racing v Red Stars Preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
This match serves double duty as a league match and a semifinal for The Women's Cup. There is also another NWSL match-up tomorrow that will not count in the standings when the Dash take on the Thorns in Portland in the Women's International Champions Cup. Barcelona and Lyon are the two European giants participating in that competition. Before we get to the preview let's talk about meaningless trophies. If Racing win this competition it will be a meaningless trophy, but one that I would be proud to celebrate. These type of tournaments have become more and more prevalent over the lasts few years, so there is plenty of meaningless silverware to go around. However, you would have to have a pretty empty trophy cabinet to celebrate it much…
Couldn't resist a dig at the Spuds
Being a new team and not one that hasn’t won a “major" trophy in nearly 5000 days…
Arsenal is so bad, I have to celebrate something.
…I think an exhibition trophy would be a nice addition to the trophy case at the Fam. If Racing advance I expect a strong starting XI in the final. If not, expect wholesale changes.
Now on to the next opponent: Good ol’ unpredictable Chicago. The Red Stars followed up a frankly embarrassing performance against Racing in Chicago with 3 straight wins and moved up the table. They then followed up their hot streak by losing 3 of 4 and slid right back down into the packed mid table logjam. Based on the stats, 5th place is probably even too high for Chicago. The Red Stars are last in possession, and accurate passes per match. They are also next to last in goals conceded at 1.4 (with Racing being last at 1.5). This team is entirely beatable, but just as capable of scoring 3 goals on their opponents.
It is unclear (to me) at least if their Olympians will be back. They have been announced as returning for the next home match.
I think this means that they won't be in Louisville, but who knows.
On the Racing side, the team has been playing pretty well over the last few matches, with the last 2 matches producing points. Racing will be faced with quite a few matches over the next few weeks. I expect that we might see a change or two, but not more than that for Wednesday. I think Salmon could use a break and Racing have plenty of attacking talent to replace her in the Starting XI. We could see Simon get a rest too. Of course, as soon as I typed those words it pretty much guaranteed that both players will play the full 90.
No prediction this time around. I don't have a good read on how the match will go and I’m never right anyway, so no loss there. A couple of things to watch will be a) the weather with a possibility of storms and b) the crowd with hopefully all 4 teams represented well in the stadium. Hope to see a packed stadium!
Gotham 1 Racing 1 Post Game Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing earned a well deserved point in yesterday's match vs. Gotham. It's always a little disappointing to drop points in a match that you once led, but a draw against one of the better teams in the league is a good result regardless. Gotham dominated possession once Louisville took the lead and won the overall possession battle 57% to 43%. Gotham also completed more passes and had a much higher passing accuracy (81% to 74%). Racing however did win one key stat: shots on target which was a 4 to 2 advantage for Racing. For all of Gotham's possession and accurate passing, they only really looked close to scoring on their 2 shots on target. Onumonu's fantastic effort was the only thing preventing Racing from taking all 3 points.
Could Racing has done better on the goal? I think the answer is like the answer to many questions: “it depends “. With the players that Racing had on the field, I don’t think an equalizer was particularly unexpected. In this particular instance, Racing allowed Gotham to have too much space to get the ball into the box. A team a little more experienced or constructed a bit differently might know how to see out a late one goal lead, but this team will almost always need a 2 goal lead to feel comfortable. That isn't necessarily down to the players on the field or the coaching, but more down to how the team is set up. Sometimes it's hard to get attack minded players to do the little things on defense. Racing is definitely set up as an attacking side. Many of their players in the middle of the pitch are really forwards and not traditional midfielders. I think more defensive minded players know how to close down space in the final third. Freja Olofsson tried to close down the pass into Onumonu's feet, but was a little too late getting there. Freja is really the only natural midfielder in the starting XI, so many times she has to cover a lot of ground on defense. In the final third, players have to understand that the risk comes from giving your opponents too much space. Further up the pitch, the risk is having someone beat you for pace or get in behind you. The defensive strategy of how to close down passing lanes changes in the final third, and sometimes it hard to get your attacking players to work as hard to close down space.
With a more balanced team, Racing will learn how to close out matches like this. That isn't to say their weren't chances to grab those 3 points at the end. Racing has a couple of decent chances inside the box, but over passing made them fizzle out. Getting that goal so early was key to earning the draw. Gotham appeared to be disinterested until Racing scored. It's always good to catch a team napping early. Incisive passing from Kizer and Salmon made that goal. Unfortunately they were both on the bench when Racing needed a late score.
One thing to keep an eye on for the rest of the season will be Racing's commitment to keeping a clean sheet. Now, I don't know if this is unique to the NWSL or even unique to this season, but keeping a clean sheet is a pretty good indicator of success. This may seem clearly obvious because a clean sheet guarantees you at least a point. However, based on all of games played so farz this year, keeping a clean sheet merits a team on average 2.5 points. Giving up at least 1 goal drops that number to .83. I know where my priority would lie. Fans love attacking football, but just because you are attack oriented doesn't mean you shouldn't strive for the clean sheet. By the way, the four worst teams at collecting points when allowing a goal are KC (2) Racing (5) and maybe surprisingly NCC (4) and Portland (5). The keys is that Portland has nine clean sheets and NCC has eight. I believe Racing’s success for the end of the season will follow this pattern. Be committed on defense and success will follow.
Gotham 1 Racing 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing used a quick start to share the points in New Jersey. A draw is a good result on the road against a team like Gotham.
Betos-6: Not asked to do much and was only beaten by a fantastic finish.
Fox-7: Did Fox things. Good as usual.
Simon-7: Another solid outing.
Riehl-7: Has my vote to stay as Bonner's CB partner.
Bonner-7: Had a good clearance off the line in tbe 37th minute. Solid as usual.
Olofsson-7: Worked hard both on and off the ball.
Kizer-7: Was instrumental in the build up to the goal. Looked dangerous going forward.
Nagasato-6: Unfortunately one of her more anonymous performances. Subbed off in the 73rd minute.
McCaskill-7: Was super lively early, but Gotham seemed determined to keep her off the ball in the 2nd half.
Nadim-8 (Player of the Match): Got her second goal and was probably the most consistently dangerous Racing player.
Salmon-7: Had a nice assist and came close to a goal on an effort off the crossbar.
I will probably sleep on this result and post full analysis tomorrow.
Racing v Gotham Preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
With all of the excitement going around about the Women’s Cup next week, this match almost seems like a forgotten game. Gotham and Racing played to a scoreless draw earlier this year in the Challenge Cup, with NJ/NY only needing a draw to top the Eastern group. It seems like Gotham has been overlooked as one of the top teams because for just about the entire season they have played at least a game less than the other top teams. Racing and Gotham now are the only two to have played 12 matches instead of 13 or 14.
Gotham plays in what I believe to be the most successful style…possession oriented while being defensively disciplined. Many teams like to dominate possession at the expense of leaving themselves open to counters. Gotham only gives up .7 goals per match, although that number has increased recently. Their weakness is that they don’t score a ton of goals. They lead only Racing and KC in that category. Back to style…the main weakness in their possession oriented but disciplined style is that they always seem to be in tight matches. They have only lost 2, but have drawn 5.
Based on Gotham's style preference and Racing’s continued improvement, I expect this to be a tight match. One thing that will be interesting to see is if Gotham sets up to absorb pressure or tries to possess the ball early. I think that Gotham will set up to possess the ball with discipline. Racing may have to be content with not seeing too much of the ball early. Racing doesn't have the midfield to win the game there, so I think Racing's best opportunities will come when Gotham drops its guard a bit.
All that being said, I am going to predict a 0-0 scoreline to mimic the earlier match-up. That would be an excellent point for Racing.
Know Your Foe with NJ/NY Gotham supporters group Cloud 9
Cloud 9 is the official supporters group of NJ/NY Gotham. Their leaders were kind enough to answer some questions about the team.
What do the Gotham fans think of the rebrand?
Love it. A rebrand was definitely needed to break away from the baggage of Sky Blue. Many of us were hesitant at first, especially after getting bombarded with Batman themed tifo requests. But we eventually started leaning into it (the name, not the Batman tifos).
Gotham is first in the league in possession and second in goals allowed. That seems like a great statistical formula for success. What's something the numbers don't show that is a reason Gotham is in a good position for a 1st round bye for the playoffs?
Defense has improved tremendously compared to past seasons. The shots our defense does allow are low percentage shots. Some worldies have been scored on us, but that's about it. Also teams can't score on us if they don't have the ball. Seems cliche to mention team chemistry, but that’s a factor too. There was very little roster turnover from last season, which is something new for this franchise.
If I were to pick one area that Gotham may need to improve, I would pick scoring more goals. Is this a concern or do you think Gotham has enough fire power?
Losing Paige and now Purce to injury hasn’t helped in the goal department. But Injuries happen. Even still, firepower is there though we can afford to shoot more, including the midfield.
Has the team's success this season been a surprise, or do you feel like the team has been building towards competing for a trophy for a while?
It’s not a surprise to fans. The team has been putting in the work. We saw that with the Challenge Cup and even in 2019. Again, minimal roster turnover is key to building a competitive team. Even though we didn’t have a full season last year most of these players have had time to develop within Freya’s system. You also can’t discount that the team now has access to proper resources and a world-class stadium.
Who has been the biggest surprise on the team so far this year?
No question, it’s Caprice Dydasco. Some players never quite make it back from one ACL injury, let alone THREE!
Who should Racing fans pay special attention to in this weekend's match?
Dydasco, obviously. Ify (Ifeoma Onumonu) has been a force up top. Look for Long to dictate the midfield. And keep an eye out for a patented Estelle Johnson Tackle™.
Thanks to Jen and the Cloud 9 leadership again. Follow them on Twitter @Cloud9GOTH.
Racing 3 - KC 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Racing had, dare I say it…a rather easy victory today vs. KC. I’m not quite sure what to make of it because I thought: a) Racing played well and b) KC looked exactly like a last place team that has only earned 4 points all year. Other than the clever free kick that caught Racing napping at the end of the first half, and a couple of last ditch efforts late that required saves from Betos, KC's efforts were rather tame. Now, I know it's starting to seem like I'm beating a dead horse here, but the numbers don’t tell the entire story. The stat sheet is going to tell you that KC outshot Racing 14 to 12, and 9 to 3 on target. This is incredibly misleading. Other than the goal and the late last ditch efforts, none of KC's shots were remotely threatening. I would go so far as to say that their overall performance lacked conviction. I almost fell out of my seat at the end of the first half because I was convinced that KC were already set to go home, let alone go to the locker room. This also demonstrates Racing's tendency to lose focus, and how dangerous that can be.
However, that's enough of the negatives. On the positive side, Racing controlled the match for the most part. All 3 goals were well taken, with Salmon's being the pick of the bunch. Another statistical anomaly that I don’t think paints the complete picture is passing accuracy. The numbers say that Simon only completed 58% of her passes and McCaskill only 61.5% but I don't recall any of those incomplete passes being a bad decision or causing any real harm. Simon was extremely active and led the team in touches (71). Savannah was second in touches with 69. Two of her passes turned into assists. She threw herself in front of a shot late that probably wouldn't have changed the outcome, but definitely reminded you what Savannah is all about. On a side note, Savannah's parents were in attendance and I can't imagine how proud they must have been with her performance. I stated in my Player Ratings post, that this may have been the best performance ever by a Racing player. I stand by that.
Nadia Nadim won the Player of the Match in the fan vote, and it's hard to be too bothered by that because she had a fantastic game too. She scored and created 3 chances, so I see how she won the vote. Salmon scored as well, but somewhat worryingly only had 19 touches of the ball in her 69 minutes. For comparison Cheyna had 11 touches in 21 minutes and also scored. Cheyna looked impressive to me and I think she probably deserves a chance to start in one of the Women's Cup matches because I think there will be some rotation in those.
Overall, it was a good performance and 3 points count the same regardless of who the opponent is. I still think Racing is probably still just a notch below the 8 teams above them in the table, but clearly better than KC. I know there has been some hand wringing about KC not having to protect any players in next years expansion draft, but I’m not sure any of them would be drafted anyway. It will be a tough remainder of the year for KC, but maybe they will prove to be a tougher match-up for future opponents. As for Racing, Gotham should be an interesting test next Sunday.
Racing 3 KC 1 Player Ratings
Betos-7: A couple of good saves late and made the initial stop on the KC goal.
Fox-7: Pushed the tempo forward. One day will love to see her in midfield.
Bonner-7: Solid again and stopped several KC attacks by stopping the ball up field.
Riehl-6: Had a another solid is unremarkable game as Gemma's partner.
Simon-8: Really impressive performance going forward and defending. Showed versatility by sliding onto the left side after Fox was subbed.
Olofsson-6: Another solid performance in midfield despite an early giveaway.
Kizer-7: A bit unlucky not to score as she hit the woodwork.
Nagasato-7: Looked effective in a more central role.
McCaskill-9(Player of the Match):Made 2 of the goals and left it all on the field. Maybe the best singular performance by any player in a Racing kit so far.
Nadim-8: Got her first goal and was dangerous throughout.
Salmon-8: Had a calm finish on the very nice team goal to open the scoring.
Matthews-7: Pounced on a sloppy KC error and walked it into the goal. I wonder if she doesn't deserve a start soon.
More later.
Racing v KC Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Does any else find it odd that Kansas City’s team name is “KC NWSL"? It would be like the Washington Football Team being called, ”Washington NFL". Hey, that's actually an improvement so ignore my previous comment. If you read my previous post with Thad Bell, you have a little background on KC's situation. They had a team, it moved to Utah, and then moved back to KC. The original NWSL team, FC Kansas City was quite successful on the field, if not off. Anyway, you could definitely make the argument that KC's roster is the weakest in the league. On the flip slide, it would be a real mistake to overlook this team.
According to recent statistical evaluations of their performances they have been improving. It's oddly similar to how Racing's statisical performances have been improving. However, KC only won 2 points in July and Racing only 1. Improvement is a funny thing. Not all improvement is created equal. Moving your performance from terrible to simply bad is improvement and so is going from excellent to world class. What I think we have in KC and Racing are two teams whose statistical performances really had nowhere to go but up.
Neither team scores much, so the first goal of the match will be huge, that is if either team actually scores. KC and Racing opened their season against each other in a 0-0 draw. I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that match, because both squads are quite a bit different now. Racing is definitely more dangerous now, but they will have to turn that into goals in order to start to collect more points.
Not to go on too much of a digression, but I am really starting to have issues with this league’s statistics. If you check multiple sources, you almost always get different numbers. It's not only the complicated calculations like xG, but things like shots and possession differ as well. Don't get me wrong, they're close and I guess the NWSL site has the official stats, but it makes me nervous that numbers get thrown around without being properly sourced. As a public service announcement I guess I want to say to take any statistics you see with a grain of salt. I have made a decision not to quote specific numbers in my preview columns and will use the statistics that Racing publishes after matches as my statistical source for post match analysis. I would challenge other members of the media to be transparent with their numbers as well. I don't think anyone is intentionally using incorrect or misleading numbers, but fully mature leagues have a much more trustworthy way of communicating stats through official channels. One quick word about xG. There definitely isn't an official source for this number. Really smart and well-intentioned people have come up with some very good models, they just haven't calibrated with each other. Some of the xG models I have seen are hilariously different from others. None of this means you shouldn't pay attention to xG. I only caution you to check the source.
If I haven't bored you to sleep with the nerdy math talk, it's time for a prediction. To be nerdy in another way I will quote Star Wars and say “I have a bad feeling about this.” Based on absolutely nothing statistical and nothing really I have seen in Racing's recent play I am saying Racing loses this one by 2 goals to 1. I hate the concept that anything is “due" to happen. I don't really believe in karma or what goes around comes around, but sometimes our subconscious does detect things that our waking consciousness doesn’t. For some reason, I get the feeling that Racing is overlooking this match. Maybe it’s fan expectations, or maybe it’s simply the fact that the team hasn't won in over month and are somehow “owed" a win. Maybe I am trying a reverse jinx, which I obviously don't believe in either. Anyway, here's to eating crow for Sunday dinner…hopefully.
Know Your Foe with Thad Bell from The Blue Testament
Thad Bell is the Manager and a writer of The Blue Testament, a blog covering Sporting KC and KC NWSL along with all other pro soccer in Kansas City. As of the publication of this post, he is planning on making the trip to Louisville to see both Sporting KC II and KC NWSL play their matches in Louisville this weekend. If you run into Thad show his some Louisville hospitality.
KC like Racing, struggled to accumulate many points in July, but both showed signs of improvement. What's been the most encouraging thing?
Thad: I will say two things. First they seem to stay upbeat and focused. I've been watching them in practice and it is not a group that is going through the motions or looking down. Determined and working hard yes, but not like a group that isn’t going to pull out of it. Secondly, after the recent trade, well before it also but more after it, the offence is becoming more fluid. Closer to what the coach wants.
What is you overall assessment of the Amy Rodriguez trade?
Sad but needed. ARod was a pivotal part of FC Kansas City’s success winning two NWSL championships and an amazing competitor. Few players will compete harder to win and that can rub off on teammates. KC NWSL needed more players that are healthy, have a winning attitude and can compete. The downside for her is she needs players to help her be successful and she is getting up there in age. Also with two California teams coming in soon, she could have asked for a move west and Kansas City may not have received as much for her. KC NWSL inherited a roster of good players, but many of them are more depth than regular starters. For A-Rod they received two field players that can start and a keeper that will compete to start and all three can play a number of more years.
It seems like KC and maybe Racing are out of the playoff hunt. What do you think KC's goals are for the remainder of the season?
Never say never… Okay, it is looking more slim, especially for Kansas City but a 4 game winning streak (happening at any moment now) and either team is scaring the middle of the pack. So…. back to reality… Yes, KC is unlikely to make the playoffs but they could start to establish that winning culture (in baby steps) the rest of the way. But if they keep improving, stay healthy and learn to score some goals, they could get a few wins and end on a high note. There are still a lot of questions that need answered and some of those may not be answered until the off season.
There has been a little bitterness from Racing fans about KC's exemption from next season's expansion draft. Do you have any insight or thoughts on how KC was able to achieve that?
Nothing super secret. It was a bonus to make the move happen and I am sure it was requested by KC management. Looking at this roster as it was inherited, there was not a lot of depth and they came from a bad culture, some of them moving twice now. If I was offered an expansion side with a fresh group and no existing contracts or the existing team that came from Utah, I would have taken an expansion with no history. Between the roster they received and the short time to even prepare for the college draft, KC started behind expansion Louisville. Being exempt from the next expansion draft will allow them to catch up a bit.
What would you say is different about Kansas City's second chance at an NWSL franchise?
Ownership and where the league is at the moment. The NWSL is far from a mature, smooth-running league but it is leaps and bounds past what it was when the league started. Sponsorship, TV deals, and generally a better awareness of women’s sports are all helping the league step up to exist in fans minds. FC Kansas City’s owners had the money, but few teams were really going all out back then and FCKC really was not. Then when the first owners were forced to sell, the last FC Kansas City owner came in like a savior but in reality delt the final death blows to a formerly very successful team. KC NWSL’s owners are a different breed altogether from the previous franchise. Financially they have the money to do the right things, they have a passion to make it succeed.
I think both sets of fans are looking at Sunday's match as a real chance for a needed 3 points. What will KC need to do to get a win?
Not make mistakes and find the back of the net. Sounds simple of course but with so much turnover, injuries and call-ups, Kansas City has been forced into some fluidity in lineups and where players slot in on any given day which makes it easy to make mistakes. They need to score so the defense is NOT forced to be perfect.
Is there any particular player that Racing fans should watch during the match?
I will give you two players with one answer. Pickett. Victoria and Kiki (no relation) are two rookies that can make a big impact. Victoria has the ability to break lines by running or passing but has not consistently broken out yet. Coaches want her to attack and shoot more but she still thinks defensively too much. Kiki came in after the NCAA tournament and needed to heal an injury before diving in but has hit the ground running. She is quick and loves to get forward from her outside back position and could make an impact.
Thanks again to Thad. You can follow him on Twitter @TheBackpost and be sure to check out his website.
Can We Talk? With Massey from WOSO Wine Up
Massey from the excellent podcast WOSO Wine Up joined me for a chat recently. Massey is an encyclopedia of WOSO knowledge.
FDLFC: How did you come up with the idea for WOSO Wine Up? It's a great name by the way.
Massey: My cohost and I were brainstorming things we could do and we both like wine and drinking it 🙃
I have to ask...how much wine do you go through in a podcast?
Ha ha ha…I can’t speak for Brianna because we haven’t actually recorded in the same place yet! But there have been episodes where I’ve drank a whole bottle!
Before we move onto Racing...I'm not a huge follower of international soccer, so I wanted to get your opinion of the USWNT's Olympic performance.
Oh wow. I could go on and on about it… there didn’t seem to be the same fire in the team that we saw in 2019. I think certain people played poorly and certain people shined. I did discuss some of it on the most recent episode (15 I think) and will definitely be talking more in the next episode :) (FDLFC: I will be sure to tweet a link to the podcast once it's available)
Racing according to "the numbers" have been playing better, what's your assessment of the team's recent play?
I think they’ve done some amazing things on the field! The talent the team possesses is INSANE! I also think that for a first year team that hasn’t played together we’ve done some AMAZING things.
I guess the disappointing thing has been the results. Frankly they were lucky early on and maybe a little more unlucky recently. What are you expectations for the remainder of the season?
I’m really looking forward to the women’s cup! We get to have some major clubs come here and experience our world class stadium and facilities! I’m looking forward to more goals and games in the fall! Being on the capo stand in the heat is BRUTAL.
ALSO very excited about OL Reign… they may have rain and Rapinoe in Seattle but we’ve got bourbon and Betos here in Louisville.
Were you a Reign fan before Racing joined the league?
I actually was! I never have gotten to see them play in Seattle but I was a Seattle Sounders women’s team fan way back in the day.
If we’re not playing them I generally am rooting for them.
Who is your favorite Racing player and non-racing player?
Oh gosh favorite Racing player!! I don’t think I can pick just one.
Well… there’s only one Erin Simon. I might have a signed pride jersey. And it might be hers. I do also love me some Michelle Betos! She’s one of the greatest goalkeepers in the game. She’s the only one (GK) to score in the NWSL EVER.
(As for non-Racing) Allie Long! For sure!!! I’ve actually played Call of Duty with her a few times. If I’m talking about players overseas Jennifer Hermoso. She’s one of my favorites.
That is awesome! Is there any sport with better fan connections than WOSO?
Oh wow. I honestly don’t think there is. WoSo is so niche still in my opinion.
I came into following this league a little naive. These first few months have been eye-opening for me. I know the passion that surrounds my favorite Premier League team (Arsenal), but it actually seems a bit tame compared to some of the ferocity I see surrounding this league. Am I getting a good feel for the passion, or has this been an unusual season?
I think that things really turned after the 2019 World Cup in such a grand way.. there are some crazy fierce fans too. But viewership numbers started going up then. Which the more people watch the more fans you get and that leads to the passion I think.
It’s crazy to see how it has evolved each World Cup starting since 2011 really.
I am old and lazy with a back that gives me fits. I can’t stand in one place for long periods of time. What is the stand experience like?
Oh it’s nuts! I keep my Apple watch on and track my calories it’s insane especially if I do the March to the match. I love it though. I like being able to help energize a crowd.
One of the things I love about Lynn Family Stadium is the variety of experiences you can have there. If you weren't in the stands, where would you like to watch the game?
Oh wow. Hmmmm probably 209 or 219. High enough up to see and at an angle to see goals scored on either end.
Thanks to Massey again for answering my questions. Follow her @sassyismassey and subscribe to WOSO Wine Up through the website.
July Fleur-de-lis-fc.com Player of the Month
Courtesy ISI Photos
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
It's hard to come up with a player of the month when the team goes 0-3-1, but I said I would pick one every month so I guess that means I have to do it. Well it doesn't mean I have to choose, so this month I am deferring to the Twitter poll and picking Ebony Salmon. Her goal was the only goal scored for the month and earned the sole point in July, so maybe it doesn't need to be any more complicated than that.
Other players of note were Gemma Bonner who helped bring more defensive stability, CeCe Kizer who was dangerous in her new wing role, Freja Olofsson who led the midfield in passing accuracy and Nadia Nadim who brought new life into the attack.
July didn't turn out the way that any Racing fan wanted, but there were clear signs of progress. Let's hope that progress turns into more points in August and difficult choice for Player of the Month due to overall better play.
OL Reign 2 - Racing 0 Analysis
Courtesy OL Reign
If you have noticed my writing style, I write from a fan’s perspective and almost always ignore Racing's opponents other than my Know Your Foe and preview posts. I focus my energy on Racing during the analysis posts. While I will continue to do that here I wanted to come at the analysis from the opposite direction…how to play against Racing.
I watch enough soccer to know that there is more than one way to win a match. Louisville's two major soccer teams, Racing and City both believe in possession football. The philosophy is to dominate possession and put the other team on the back foot. This often includes high pressure. They want to build possession from the back and score as a result of that possession. When done correctly it looks like their first goal against Chicago. The highlight of this goal cuts out the early buildup, but the move started from a recovery from Martin, a pass to Betos who fed it quickly to Bonner. You can watch the rest here:
So when it works it's beautiful. However there are three things that building from the back requires: good positioning, quick ball movement and accurate passing.
If I were planing to play against Racing here is what I would tell my team: let Racing possess the ball in the back and wait for a loose pass in midfield to counter. Here's the thing, the possession numbers don’t mean much once you're behind and they really mean next to nothing when you're down by more than one. Now the possession stats will say that possession was equalim last night's match, but the Reign had 26 more passes in the opposition half. Possession in your own half frankly doesn't mean much.
The other thing I would tell my team is to attack from the left. Emily Fox according to some terrible analysis on Twitch could soon be a centerback, but for now locks down the right side of attack. Simon has put in some decent efforts, but she's not Fox. Is it any surprise that most teams attack Racing from the left?
That’s it. That's the winning formula against Racing. Score first and your pretty much guaranteed a victory. My verdict: Racing need to be much harder to figure out. I think the recent increase in Racing's shot and possession numbers are due to improvement to some degree, but also due to teams figuring out that Racing are more dangerous in transition than in possession and that they are prone to a mistake in midfield.
From the beginning of the season, I thought Racing's best chances for points would be to set up to defend and counter. Now I am all but totally convinced of it. However, Racing just simply isn't built for this. I think Coach Holly simply doesn't think he has enough healthy, viable options at centerback to play a back 3. I’m not sure I disagree. In the off-season I expect this to be addressed. For now Racing is stuck with a back 4. The midfield is under staffed as well. Simply, the roster isn't balanced. That's a difficult thing to overcome. There are too many players not playing in their natural positions. That's how an expansion roster is going to be, so it's not really anyone's fault. For the remainder of the season, Coach Holly will have to figure out how he wants to play. I am fine with him sticking to his guns. The team will continue to improve, but there may not be many points to come from it.
I am a huge fan of relegation, and since the overwhelming majority of the football world has this system it tempers my analysis. However, since the NWSL will not have this in the foreseeable future I might need to adjust my thinking. For the rest of the season, points aren't as important as they would be in a league with relegation. That doesn't mean they aren't important at all. Winning is good for morale and Racing technically aren't eliminated from the playoffs, yet. If Coach Holly has found a formation that he likes, then by all means he should stick to it through the learning and mistakes. He has switched it up a bit recently through his own admission. I am sure he wants to win every match, but he has to decide what is more important at this point, learning and improving or accumulating points. I still think accumulating points is still the way to go, but I obviously will defer to his judgment. I would only say this: while winning is contagious, so is losing. I would hate for this team to have too many more losses where they played well and lose by two goals.
Which brings me to last night. Racing was beaten by 2 fantastic goals by Le Sommer, which can happen. However, I would have considered a 2-1 defeat real progress. Racing have to learn how to come from behind. A goal would have showed progress towards this. As a fan, it seems like all hope is lost for a win or draw if Racing doesn't score first. At some point this team needs to figure out how to score against a team that has a lead. They were close a few times last night and will surely get one soon. I think that would show true growth.