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Racing 0 Dash 4 Player Ratings
It was was rather lackluster showing by Racing at Lynn Family Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The back four seemed unsettled the entire match and the attack couldn't seem to work the ball out of Racing's own half.
Betos-6: Had a good save, but struggled to pass the ball cleanly to any Racing players.
Fox-6: Nicholls Prince bullied her the entire match.
Martin-5/Hendrix-5: We now see the full value of the Bonner/Riehl partnership.
Simon-6: Of the defenders, had the best game.
Olofsson-5: Struggled to have much impact.
McCaskill-5: At fault for the first goal with a poor first touch.
Milliet-6: Tried hard in attack, but couldn't seem to get on the same page with the front two to make a lethal pass.
Matthews-6/Nagasato-6: Matthews has a few nice chances and Yuki looked sharp in her limited time on the pitch.
Kizer-7 (Player of the Match): I had to pick someone, and she seemed to be the most consistently positive attacking force.
Salmon-5/Baucom-5: Didn't really do much to threaten the Dash goal.
Quick Racing v Dash Preview
Courtesy EM Dash
Of course the last time Houston came to town, this happened…
That was a great moment. Will Ebony be on the bench again for a chance to repeat history?
With Nadia Nadim out for the remainder of the season, Racing will be looking to replace her attacking prowess. If I were selecting the line up against Houston on Saturday, this would be my formation:
Built using buildlineup.com
Obviously I’m not, so we will see if Baucom is preferred to Salmon again. On Soccer City Radio, Lance McGarvey talked about a playoff push. I guess this is still technically possible, but the odds are so low I would be willing to make easy money betting against it. That being said, it's a bit too early to put in a lineup of all younger players. I do think we will see a drastically changed lineup in at least a couple matches in October. If Racing were to take 3 points at home vs. Houston, and another 3 against Gotham at home then we could start to dream a bit about the playoffs.
Racing and the Dash are familiar opponents at this point. Racing has matched up well against Houston, so I give Louisville a shot at taking all 3 points at home. I have not seen any updated injury reports for this week, so I will tweet those out either today or tomorrow. As for a prediction, I will go with a 2-1 Racing victory, with Houston getting a late consolation goal.
Roster Performance and Analysis through 18 matches
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Neely Martin goes from an open tryout to being a probable returnee for next year's team.
With only 6 games remaining in the NWSL season and the playoffs almost surely out of reach, I wanted to start to think about how the team performed statistically this year and how they might set up for next year. I compared statistical performance across position groups. I believe that it would be foolish to wait until the season is over for the team to start to evaluate talent, so I have to believe these last 6 matches will serve as a chance to audition for any players that might not be locks to be on next year's team. With that in mind, for each player I will give a brief summary of any statistically relevant data, including any interesting statistical tidbits and a very preliminary evaluation of whether I believe the player will be on the 2022 roster.
Goalkeepers:
1-Betos: Michelle has played every minute of the league season. She is the only Racing player to do so. Even though Michelle leads the league in saves, she does not lead the league in saves per match. Kallen Sheridan leads of NJ/NY leads the league in saves per match with 5.3 to Michelle's 5.0. I don't want to live in a world where Michelle Betos isn't this team's captain next year.
21-Money and 22-Lund: When the season started I made flash cards for myself, so that I could learn the players by sight during matches. When Racing posted pictures from their outing at Churchill Downs, it took me a minute to remember who Shelby Money was. That's not a good sign for a player’s performance, but 3rd keeper is a tough role. Even though Katie Lund has played 0 minutes in the league so far, we are all aware of her contribution to the club. I hope she gets a start soon. I don't think Racing will draft a keeper or look for another one through open tryouts unless San Diego selects Katie through the expansion draft, which is not beyond the realm of possibility. Another bit of trivia…Katie was drafted 7 spots ahead of Michelle in the expansion draft, so the team may see her as the long term keeper.
Defenders (according to Racing's roster)
3-Simon: Erin has had a mixed bag in regards to performance this year. Her passing accuracy is lowest on the team (59%) for anyone with more than 300 minutes. She has found herself on the bench recently when she was a regular starter. My instinct is that she will continue to be a sub when used, and will get less minutes as the team finishes the season. From what I can tell she will no longer be under contract at the end of the season and I think she will be allowed to leave.
4-Bonner: Gemma rates above average for the team in the relevant categories (passing accuracy, clearances, interceptions) and is a leader on defense. She leads the team in clearances with 55 and accurate passes per minute (.49) for all players with more than 100 minutes. Gemma is under contract for 2022 and 2023, so she will be around for a while.
11-Fox: Emily leads all players who play in a “wide” or attacking positions with 78% passing accuracy. She is also Fotmob's top rated Racing Louisville player for the season with a 7.3 average rating per match. In addition she had more than double the amount of interceptions (40) than the next highest player. She should be a Racing player for as long as she wants to stay.
12-Miramontez: Ranks below average in most statistical categories. Holds the distinction of being the first and so far only Racing player to get a red card. Most likely will not be with the team next season.
14-Martin: Nealy ranks slightly above average in the relevant categories for defense. Her passing accuracy is tied for highest among defenders (81%). I think Nealy has proven reliable and will continue to get a look at left back. Her ability to play in both left sided defensive positions means that she should probably make the roster again next year.
15-Hendrix: If any player has gotten a raw deal based on statistical performance, it's been Brooke. She leads the team in both clearances per minute and interceptions per minute. However, she is on the lower side in passing accuracy for defenders (74%). I would like to see her get another shot in the lineup before the end of the season before passing full judgment on her chances of being on the team in 2022. I don't believe she is under contract, so that may lower her chances.
16-Ashley: Julia has only played 238 minutes due to injury and other factors. She was taken 2nd in the expansion draft, so she surely was going to be a larger part of the plans. I think she is under contract for next year.
18-Riehl: Kaleigh is above average in all of the relevant categories and is tied for the lead in passing accuracy among defenders. She has also played more minutes at CB than any other player. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year, but she is one to keep for sure.
26-Merrick: Addisyn has had the worst injury luck since joing Racing and has only played 57 minutes. However, in those 57 minutes she showed why Racing selected her number 1 in the expansion draft. She had 37 accurate passes in those minutes which is frankly astounding compared to the rest of the team. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year. Her health will unfortunately have a lot to do with the decision to keep her or not. If Racing decides not to keep her, she will surely catch on elsewhere.
Midfielders (according to Racing's roster)
2-Milliet: Lauren is nominally a midfielder, but “attacker” might be a better description. Honestly, the stats don't do her any favors. She is average to just below average in the relevant attacking stats (chances created, goals, assists and shots on target). Lauren is a personal favorite, but will probably be left unprotected in the expansion draft in hopes that she is selected. If not, I think it's a coin flip to see if she is back on the roster in 2022.
8-Olofsson: Freja is pretty much the only option at DM at this point, and has performed well statistically. She leads the team in passing accuracy at 84%. It's unclear if she is under contract for next year, but I think it's a safe bet that she will be on the roster in 2022.
19-Otto: Unfortunately, there isn't much to evaluate with Taylor other than a 45 minute outing in KC. She is under contract, but will probably be left unprotected. If she is not taken, she will be on the 2022 roster.
Forwards (according to Racing's roster)
5-Kizer: CeCe (along with Yuki) is one of the most accurate passers (77%) of the attacking players. She leads the “front 3” forwards in minutes, chances created and the entire team in shots on target. It's unclear is CeCe is under contract past this year, but the team will surely keep her.
7- McCaskill: Savannah leads all outfield players in minutes and chances created (31 which is 14 more than 2nd place Kizer). Her relatively low passing accuracy (69%) can be attributed to her desire to move the ball forward. She and CeCe are in the same situation via contract status. She is surely in no danger of leaving unless she pushes for it.
9-Salmon: Ebony leads the team in goals and goals per match. She has been coming on as a sub recently, but surely that is to protect her from overuse. She is under contract next year.
10-Nadim: Nadia leads the team in chances created per minute and shots on target per minute. The team will surely miss her in these last 6 matches. She is under contract for this year and next.
13-Ekic: Had one great game, and hasn't had the opportunity to do much else. Hopefully will get more minutes in these last 6 matches. Racing might be tempted to leave her unprotected in the draft. I think I would risk it. She is under contract for next year.
17-Nagasato: Leads the attackers in passing accuracy with 78%. Other than passing, she lags in the other attacking stats. Her contract status I unclear, and at 34 I would be tempted to leave her unprotected. If she is not selected by San Diego, she would definitely be welcomed back for 2022.
20-Matthews: Cheyna has a goal and an assist in her limited minutes. All of her attacking stats are at or above average. Her contract status is unclear, and probably is 50/50 on returning.
22-McClure: Katie hasn't done much statistically during her limited minutes. Little to no chance that she would be preferred to new options in attack.
27-Kara: Vanessa has not had much opportunity to show her skills, and will surely not be on the team next year.
33 Baucom: Based strictly on league performance, Jorian hasn't done much, but did score in the Challenge Cup and the Women's Cup. Even though she seems to be the preferred starter in Coach Sanchez's system, I don't think she will be on Racing's squad next year, but will surely catch on elsewhere.
Here's who I think will make at least the preliminary 2022 roster:
GK (3) Betos, Lund, Money
D (6) Bonner, Ashley, Riehl, Merrick, Martin, Fox
M (2) Olofsson, Otto
F (6) Nagasato, McCaskill, Nadim, Kizer, Salmon, Ekic
That is 17 players. The top 4 draft picks in next year's draft are probably locks to make the team, bringing the roster to 21. The current roster sits at 25. The NWSL max on the roster is supposed to be 24 with 4 supplemental players. I don't know this for sure, but I assume that Shelby Money is on the supplemental roster.
Here are the players that might be at risk to be unprotected and taken by San Diego:
Lund, Merrick, Ashley, Riehl, Milliet, Nagasato, Ekic
Pride 3 Racing 1 Player Ratings and Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
You have to score when you're in the ascendancy. That's the big lesson here. Prior to the two Pride goals in quick succession Racing had the bests chances. Racing fought back to get a second half goal, but conceded again to end up on the wrong side of a 3-1 loss.
Player Ratings
Betos-6: Her initial save on the build up to Leroux's goal was great and exactly what she had been practicing on Thursday when I was there. The actual goals were not her fault.
Fox-8: Racing's consistently best player was great again, almost scoring in the first half.
Riehl-7: Looking back, it's hard to understand why she ever was on the bench. Her play has gotten better and better since she rejoined the starting lineup. It could be argued that she has been the best CB option this season.
Bonner-6: A fairly average performance in a string of average performances.
Martin-5: Should have done better on Marta's goal. It's unclear to me why she is preferred at left back at the moment.
Olofsson-6: A little drop in quality from her last match.
McCaskill-7: Did standard McCaskill things and her corners are getting better.
Millet-7: Played the full 90, and had a decent match.
Kizer-8 (Player of the Match): It has to be said that CeCe seems to have a pretty good instict about how to place the ball on her shots. On the goal she opened up her posture to receive the ball and had the option to go left of right of the keeper. It was fabulous positioning.
Nagasato-7: Yuki had a good game as the replacement for Nadia. Her pass to Kizer on the goal was great.
Baucom-6: Had a decent effort that was wide of goal.
Other Thoughts
Nadim most likely has a torn ACL and if that is true, then her season is over. It's tough to know how much contact there was or how much it led to the injury. I didn't see anything egregious in the contact and there wasn't a card issued. I didn't think there was any ill intent in the challenge.
The officiating in this league is flat out terrible sometimes. Worse than that, it's horribly inconsistent and keeps being terrible in new and confusing ways. There was a missed offside call, which happens. The most puzzling thing was the 3 added minutes of extra time in the first half. Nadim was down for at least 3 and a half minutes. In most every other league in the world, officials add time for each goal scored. Most fans would have assumed at least 5 minutes of stoppage time was needed. I think most officials would have added that much. The other frustrating thing is that the officials are inconsistent about when to let play go on and when to stop it. I am fine with letting play go on and not calling every foul, in fact I prefer that advantages are given. However, sometimes the officials just seem to not call fouls when a team simply retains possession. These should be called consistently.
I don’t think either coach has gotten the starting XI right. This unchanged lineup looked less cohesive in its second time out. I still think the roster is too unbalanced. Racing is likely to have 2 of the top 4 draft picks in the college draft. They have to use those picks to transform the team into a group of players that wants to play how the head coach wants to play. If this team is going to insist on pressing, then the top two picks better be equipped to do that or provide cover for it.
The team and players can insist that they are still in the playoff hunt, but any reasonable person has surely given up on that by this point. With Nadia likely out for the rest of the season, Racing surely can move to talent evaluation mode.
There are 6 matches left and the organization should use those to prep for next year and beyond. I would be looking to try out some different looks and player combinations.
Pride v Racing Preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
I am a healthy scratch for this match. Let me explain…
When I was growing up in rural KY, I very rarely had the chance to attend college or pro level sporting events. Maybe once every few years, our family would make the trip to Cincinnati to see the Reds or Bengals. Occasionally we would make it to Freedom Hall to see a basketball game (usually UK's “home” game there) and I think I set foot in Rupp Arena once for a college basketball game. Don't get me wrong, I loved sports but I simply didn't have the access that I do today. I watched whatever local TV channels broadcasted until I got cable. Upon getting ESPN I followed whatever was on there including Austriailian Rules Football and Hockey, two sports that I doubt will ever be popular in central Kentucky.
Once a year, the Reds would send out a mailer that allowed you to pick a specific game or games to attend by checking a couple of boxes to select the date and the seat level. You mailed in a check and if you had nothing better to do (like me) you checked the mail everyday to see if your tickets had arrived. There was also a phone number on the mailer to call if you were interested in season tickets. THAT bit of knowledge was almost too much for my pre-adolescent brain to handle. You mean there were people who could go to EVERY game? I dreamed of being able to be one of “those” people. In retrospect maybe I should have aimed higher with my dreams, but what did a 9 or 10 year old kid know.
Which brings me to my healthy scratch. I was a U of L Football season ticket holder before Racing even existed. As it happens, this Saturday is one of the thankfully rare occasions where the U of L Football schedule clashes with the Racing schedule. Also thankfully there is no place on the schedule where they both have home games on the same date. Like most people I assume, I am opting for the live experience. Based on how terrible U of L looked on Monday, this might be a rare chance to win a game so I better make the most of it. The plan is to watch the Racing match late in the evening and give a recap on Sunday that includes player ratings.
As for the preview, I’m sure Bekki Morgan will do a much better job at that, so look for her post on The Beautiful Game Network.
However, here are a few “previewish” things. There is a rather lengthy injury report for Racing:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT)
D JULIA ASHLEY (OUT)
D SINCLAIRE MIRAMONTEZ (QUESTIONABLE)
F EMINA EKIC (QUESTIONABLE)
Julia didn't practice on Thursday, so that isn't a surprise but is a blow. Watch to see if the formation stays the same or changes. I have an inkling, but since I attended practice I am not going to share. The Soccer City Radio crew all predicted a 1-1 draw so I will go against the grain and say the 2nd goal secures a victory for Racing.
August Fleur-de-lis-FC.com Player of the Month
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
August's Player of the Month is Nadia Nadim. Nadia had two goals and an assist, helping Racing accumulate 5 points in the Month of August.
Many People voted for Michelle Betos, and she could probably win it every month, but to me Nadia was the clear choice.
Racing definitely looks like a completely different team with her on the pitch. Racing were able to win the inaugural Women's Cup without Nadia seeing even a minute of playing time, but she was clearly the most consistent player on the field in the remainder of the matches.
Here is my favorite thing about Nadia's game: she always seems to be involved. In several matches, Naida dropped deep into the midfield to pick up possession. When the service to the forwards isn't there, she takes it on to herself to move the ball forward. She is never static. If McCaskill is the team’s engine, then Nadia is steering wheel. She directs the attack from all areas on the pitch.
Congratulations to Nadia and here's to continuing success!
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Post Match Thoughts
Yuki cleverly uses her media pass to get some great content for her YouTube channel.
Coach Mario Sanchez went with a new look starting XI, but ended up with another draw. Racing hasn't won a match in full time since their victory against KC in early August. This match felt very much like the draws against NJ/NY and Chicago with Racing taking an early lead but not quite being able to hold on for all 3 points. The Reign goal came from an attack from out wide, something to which Racing seems rather susceptible. The Racing goal was a typical one as well with an incisive pass as part of a rapid move resulting in a goal. Racing rarely scores from long periods of possession.
Back to the new look. I halfway expected Coach Sanchez to stick with the standard starting XI that Coach Holly used, but he went with a lineup that had never been seen before. The most unusual switch was Fox at Right Back and Martin at Left Back. Erin Simon, a usual starter never entered the match. Sanchez also preferred Baucom to Salmon, but both were rather quiet during the match with Salmon entering for Milliet at halftime. Milliet had plenty of starts early in the season so her entry wasn't as much of a surprise with Yuki out with an injury. Here's what I inferred from the changes:
Fox is deemed too necessary for defense to be moved into midfield and that may have to wait until next year.
Baucom will get a chance to make an impact up front.
Salmon may be getting a little tired, having played a full WSL season and being used quite often at Racing.
Racing is still trying to figure out their best back 4 and may be auditioning players for a back 3.
Zach Allen-Kelly is of the opinion and I agree that there isn't quite enough NWSL starting level quality in the team. Next year there will be 2 new teams that will thin out the quality even more, if teams don't find talent in the draft of overseas. I think Racing is definitely in talent evaluation mode.
If you watched the post match videos you saw that the team hasn't given up (which is good, but fans shouldn’t expect anything better than 9th) and Coach Sanchez sure does like to swear!
He does keep it clean during the match though and although he does yell a bit, he doesn't show his frustration with the players even if he does have to give the same instructions more than once. Most of those instructions have to do with pressing, and if this team is going to consistently apply a high press, they are going to have to communicate better with each other on the pitch. Matthews seems to know when to press pretty instinctively, but the rest of the front line is a little hit or miss.
I hope everyone enjoys a nice Labor Day weekend! Believe it or not, Racing only has 2 more matches in September, so October will be a busy month.
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Player Ratings
Another day another draw. This game followed the similar pattern for most of Racing's draws with Racing scoring early and their opponent equalizing in the second half. Coach Sanchez tried a few different things. Some of them worked and some of them didn't.
Betos-7: Made some good saves, some great saves and didn't have a chance on the goal.
Bonner-7: Could be argued that she was slightly out of position for the goal, but was outnumbered in the box, so that seems harsh.
Riehl-7: Continues to play better and better each match.
Fox-7: I think the Reign might have been confused early by her switch to right back. She looked just as comfortable there.
Martin-7: Did fine in the left back spot.
McCaskill-8: Ran hard as usual and has a decent effort on goal.
Olofsson-8: Seems to now have recovered completely from her off game vs KC and looked solid as ever.
Milliet-6: Subbed off at half for Salmon who really didn't offer anything in a front 2 look with Matthews or Baucom.
Kizer -7: Kind of a quiet game other than the pass that opened up the chance for Nadim's goal.
Baucom-7: Had a shot on target, but needed more service. Matthews looked lively when she replaced her.
Nadim-8: Scored a goal and had another shot on target. Apparently was upset about something after the match, because after the team talk from Coach Sanchez she threw a water bottle at the bench and immediately left the field. This is something to see if we hear about later.
Racing v Reign Preview…but not really
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images
My wife once bought me tickets to a Pacers Cavs games back when LeBron was in his second stint with the Cleveland. As the game approached I noticed that it was the second game of a back-to-back part of the schedule. Of course LeBron had the night off and didn't travel with the team. I still had fun, but it would have been nice to see LeBron. The Cavs got destroyed (deservedly) and seeing Kevin Love just wasn't that big of a thrill. On a side note I saw a Warriors game in Oakland minus Steph Curry too, but I did get to see Durant, Thompson, Green and Anthony Davis on the Pelicans.
This little preamble is to say that fans like to see stars from the other teams. When I bought season tickets for Racing they didn't even have a coach (history repeats) let alone players. It wasn't the first thought in my mind or a deciding factor in why I bought tickets, but one of my early thoughts was “I will get to see Megan Rapinoe play in person.” She was the player I most wanted to see.
Flash Forward over a year, and now I realize that I may never get to see her play in person. I just got confirmation from Susie Rantz who covers the Reign that Coach Laura Harvey said that Rapinoe is out this weekend. I know she didn't travel with the team, so I am all but 100% sure she won't be in the stadium this Saturday. Hear this loud and clear: I DO NOT BLAME HER OR THE OL REIGN ONE BIT. How opposing fans might feel is very low down on the list of a team's concerns if it's even on the list. Megan Rapinoe is 36 years old and has played twice already this week. I don't know how many more years she is going to play, but I hope that Louisville hasn't missed its only chance to see one of the greatest soccer players to even play the game. I have said before that I don't watch a ton of international soccer, but what I do remember from watching is this: Megan Rapinoe in the 2019 World Cup was the best player on the field and it wasn't close. I’m not talking Messi or Ronaldo being the best player in their primes on the field. I’m talking it looked like she was playing FIFA on easy mode different. She did whatever she wanted, whenever she wanted. I don’t want to or mean to insult any of the other players, but she was so much noticeably better than it almost seemed unfair. Now memory is a funny thing and not a great discerning tool for finding facts or the truth, but that’s what her performance felt like to me and it's how I personally remember it. I’m sure others remember it differently.
Now on to the game. The Reign will be without Rapinoe, but had no trouble defeating Racing without her or the other Olympians in Tacoma. Racing has had a tough week and is on a 2 game losing streak. This is not a prediction but a wish…I HOPE RACING BEATS THE OL REIGN BY 5 GOALS. I HOPE THEIR FLIGHT HOME IS DELAYED. I HOPE THEY MISS THE PLAYOFFS BY A POINT AND LOOK BACK ON THIS GAME AS THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY. HOW DARE YOU DEPRIVE THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE THE CHANCE TO SEE ONE OF THE GREATEST! OUR CITY IS HOME TO THE GREATEST AND YOUR LACK OF RESPECT WILL NEVER BE FORGIVEN.
In case that wasn't clear I’m obviously being hyperbolic, but a win would be sweet.
Can we talk? (with Ellie Hurley)
September is Childhood Cancer Awareness Month. If you are reading this blog then you surely know Ellie's story. If not, you can catch up here. Ellie is a great example of how sports can give hope and how to persevere. I sent a list of questions to Ellie's mom, Morgan to get some insight into how Racing's biggest fan feels about the team and the season. See Morgan's self-described “mom notes” in parentheses.
What has been your favorite Racing memory so far this year?
“Gorp!! And the women’s cup… since we won it!! And meeting Michelle and Yuki and Cece and of course Nadia and Jorian”
If you could go to any away game, which city would you like to visit and why?
“Paris! I’ve been wanting to go to Paris for a looooong time. If I can’t go to Paris, I think Chicago. They have lots of museums and stuff and I’d like to see Mallory Pugh again” (she then sang a song she made up for her). Ed. Note: I hope we get to hear that song one day.
I saw that you recently started playing soccer. Do you try to play like any specific player?
“I crow hop like Michelle, and I try to kick it out like Savannah but I don’t slide. When I’m a defender I’m a mix of Emily and Erin without the falling. I jump around a lot and try to move the ball mostly” (She’s referring to Erin falling in a few games in a row)
You got to attend the Women's Cup reception at the Muhammad Ali Center. What was your favorite part of that event?
“Gorp!!! That’s the day I met Gorp! I liked seeing the players too. They all talked to me and were really nice, but I always talk to them after the games. Michelle said the most ‘bad butt’ part was my armband” Ed Note: “I giggled way too much at the thought of Michelle saying “bad butt”.
(I’m sure Michelle used a different phrase)
What has been your favorite class in school this year?
“Science of course”
Do you have a favorite piece of Racing merchandise?
“My hat that everyone has signed and the scarf that everyone signed too”
Do you think Racing should have a mascot?
“We already have a mascot… Gorp” Ed. Note: I guess I walked right into that one.
Do you have a favorite non-Racing player?
“Mallory Pugh, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe”
What other things do you like to do other than watch or play soccer?
“Spending time with my mommy, watch UK football, read my books, go to the comic book store.”
Racing have 8 more matches this year, how many do you think they will win?
“I want them to win all of them, but I’m gonna say at least 4 and not get out of my head”
Thanks again to Ellie for answering my questions and Morgan for transcribing her answers. Help fight pediatric cancer by donating to their favorite charity DanceBlue.
The Way Forward
One of the dumbest and utterly untrue statements that I have heard repeatedly in my professional career is “It doesn't matter who you report to.” This is usually given as a reason not to get upset when a boss leaves or there is a reorganization. I think corporations have maybe stopped using this so much recently, because times have changed. I have had dozens of bosses over the years and I can't think of anything more important when it comes to your job. Sometimes you get a great boss that you didn't sign up for and sometimes you get a terrible one that you did sign up for. All of this is to say is that your relationship with your leader matters a great deal.
Coach Christy Holly is no longer the leader of Racing Louisville FC on the field. There are probably some players happy to see him leave and some that are sad. It's hard to know what the players are thinking right now, but we know that Coach Holly was instrumental in getting several current players to sign with Racing. In fact, I’m sure he had a say in all of the roster decisions. Better writers and reporters will dig into the “why”, so I want to talk about the “what now?”
Sometimes clubs have a rigid philosophy. I’m not sure I like that. I think it's fine for a coach or organization to have a general philosophy about how they want to play in the short term, but times change. In fact I reject the idea of “the way we do things”. Appeal to tradition is a logical fallacy in which a person or people claim that just because something is tradition, it is the correct way forward. In short, it's the fallacy of “that's the way we've always done it.” Even though LouCity/Racing hasn't been around that long it's easy to fall into this behavior, especially if your highest leadership doesn't change much or all come from the same philosophical background.
I don't know how things run at the club. I have no real insight or access into the day to day. That's OK. The problem is that nobody does. The organization does what organizations do: they try to control the message. They have every right to do this. We as fans have every right to question their motivation when they do. We may never know exactly what happened that cost Coach Holly his job. I’m not sure that we even deserve to know. What we do deserve is an explanation on what the club will do to make sure whatever happened doesn't happen again. Part of that explanation I want to hear is how the club is changing to prevent history repeating itself. Let's be honest here. The NWSL has a coaching problem. How does Racing ensure that they expand the hiring pool to include better candidates and we just don't get more of the same? We'll be watching.
Dash 1 Racing 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing fell to the Houston Dash last night, and that loss surely eliminated any real hopes Racing had of making the playoffs this year. I personally don't think that loss was attributed to anything more than Houston making the best of their opportunities and simply not creating enough opportunities on the Racing side. Sometimes the analysis is as simple as that. In the grand scheme of things, this will be a rather forgettable performance. It will be one of those matches for which I will struggle to recall any details after the season is over. Keeping this in mind, I think it is more interesting to start to wildly speculate about the remainder of the season.
The major thing I have noticed this month is Emily Fox's playing time. She has been subbed out of 3 of the 6 league matches in August and didn't play at all in the Women's Cup Final. I don’t think it is a stretch to think of Fox as Racing's most reliable player, if not their best one. I don't think any of these substitutions have had anything to do with performance, so I believe there are 2 possibilities for her usage this month. The first one is obvious…rotation. I believe this is part of it. August was full of matches and no player needed to or actually played all 90 minutes in each match. Fox completed 90 minutes 3 times in August, so she got plenty of work. The second possibility is that Coach Holly is trying to evaluate his other defensive options at Left Back. Julia Ashley has played at both Left and Right Back, and Erin Simon has picked up minutes there too. With nothing left to lose the remainder of the season I wonder if Coach Holly is thinking about shifting Fox to a midfield role.
I personally think Fox would be most effective in a 3-5-2 formation as the left winger, or as a left sided midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Racing doesn't have the CBs yet to play with 3 at the back, or at least enough healthy ones. I think a 4-2-3-1 formation might be a better fit for more than just Fox. Here are the players that I think would benefit from the switch:
Fox: Emily could use her passing and dribbling skills more in the middle of the field and actually flow in and out of the attack more deceptively from a midfield position. Her defensive skills could also be used just as much in the middle of the pitch as on the outside.
McCaskill: Savannah is Racing's engine. She runs the team. She often drops deep and picks up the ball in the defensive third and attacks in the final third just as effectively. The NWSL is used to seeing her in more of an attacking role and almost every time I watch the Twitch/Paramount Plus commentary someone brings this up. I think McCaskill is good enough to play anywhere on the field but some midfield help would let he play higher up the pitch where she wouldn't have to expend so much energy on defense, which I personally think sometimes makes her attacking prowess suffer. The other thing this would do is that is would not allow opponents to focus so much on Savannah and lock her down.
Nadim: To my eyes Nadim is a 10 and not a 9. She doesn't need service to be creative. She is the smoothest player on the pitch. That's what you want out of a number 10. You want equal parts passing and shooting. To me she is just at good in the middle of the pitch as the final third. She also likes to drop deep to pick up the ball. It would be nice if when she did that she had a passing option further up the pitch.
Salmon: Ebony has looked a little isolated when playing out wide and I think she is more effective when she gets the ball supplied to her vs. having to attack from out wide. She is most effective when she can get a shot off in 3 touches or less.
Here is what this formation would look like:
It would potentially weaken the wing defense, but if you picture Fox sliding over to help Simon and Olofsson sliding over to help Ashley, I think it could work.
I don’t know if Racing's staff will try a formation like this, but I think it may be time to experiment a bit with the focus toward next year. I think Racing will use the rest of the season to evaluate talent and look for the biggest areas needed for improvement in the draft.
Dash 1 Racing 0 Player Ratings
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing were beaten by an excellent goal, but some of the old habits are creeping back in. Racing's style of play seems to be dictated philosophically at the executive level. I would like to see a few more direct attacks vs. the over passing that you see in possession many times. Racing plays best when they are direct, regardless of whether it is a 10 pass move or a coordinated high press which forces a mistake. Their lack of a cutting edge showed very much tonight.
Betos-6: Same old Betos. Stopped plenty, but nothing to do on the goal.
Fox-7: Curiously subbed early. Was good while in.
Martin-7: Played well in 2 positions.
Riehl-6: Made a few odd decisions playing the ball into pressure unnecessarily.
Ashley-7: I thought she had a good game, but was nursing an injury so only got 53 minutes.
McCaskill-7: I don't know why the NWSL commentators want to focus on what she isn't doing vs. what she is doing, which is being the engine that runs the team.
Milliet-6: Looked lively early. Subbed off in the 65th minute.
Olofsson-6: Recovered from a poor performance with a solid one.
Kizer-7: Just couldn't quite find the right last touch or pass to unlock the defense.
Nadim-7 (Player of the Match): In another puzzling bit of commentary on Paramount Plus, she was criticized for…well I couldn't quite say actually. I guess it was for not playing as a natural 9? Anyway had a shot on goal and a great cross on Racing's best scoring chance.
Ekic-5: Anonymous, and I wonder if this will be her last shot starting for awhile.
Quick Preview: Dash v Racing
I’m a little late posting a preview for tonight's match vs. The Houston Dash, so I will keep the preview short and sweet. The Dash are in a group of teams fighting for a playoff spot with about 5 other teams. All of these teams are capable of winning or losing any match. Houston being the home team tonight should give them a slight edge. Zach Allen-Kelly predicted “pain" for tonight's match in our predictions column for the State of Louisville. He is also a terrible prognosticator, so we won't read much into that. I expect a bounce back performance tonight with Racing getting at least a point.
One thing to watch for will be the starting XI. Coach Holly has either made wholesale changes or none at all (barring a replacement for injury). It would be nice to see how this team looks with 2 to 4 changes. There may be a chance to see that tonight. I predicted earlier this week that we might see a full NWSL debut for Katie Lund tonight, which would be fun. Racing will be without Miramontez on the bench due to her red card, so look for at least one difference in the roster vs. Wednesday.
A Look Forward to the Expansion Draft by Travis Murphy
Editor's note: Travis Murphy is taking a look at the upcoming NWSL expansion draft. We disagree slightly on the list of players to protect and if it comes down to actually having to protect players, I will share my thoughts. Regardless expect that the college draft to impact roster moves as well.
Two new teams will be entering the NWSL to compete in the 2022 season: Angel City FC in Los Angeles and a yet-to-be-named team in San Diego.
That means an expansion draft will be held in the offseason on the 16th of December. Other than the date, the only detail of this draft that’s currently known is that teams will be able to protect only 9 players, down from 11 in last year’s expansion draft when Racing had an opportunity to begin building their team. The Racing front office has likely been preparing different scenarios for this expansion draft all year so let’s speculate on the team’s strategy.
One key piece of that strategy took place this week – Racing traded the rights of Christen Press to Angel City FC in return for roster protection during the expansion draft. Racing just reduced their exposure in the expansion draft from losing four players down to losing two at most – Angel City cannot select from Racing, and San Diego will be limited to selection no more than two per team.
That is, of course, assuming the 2020 expansion draft rules remain in place: each club can select no more that two players per team; only two US National Team players could be taken overall by the selecting teams; and if a National Team player is selected the picking team cannot select an additional player from the team. Racing must submit a protected player list to the league in advance of the draft, all other players under contract with Racing or whose rights are held (draft picks and players selected in last year’s expansion draft but not under contract) will be available for selection by San Diego.
Must Protect: Freja Olofsson, Gemma Bonner, Ebony Salmon, Nadia Nadim, Savannah McCaskill, Emily Fox
I don’t think there are any surprises on this list. Olofsson, Bonner and Fox have played all 90 minutes anchoring the Racing defense numerous time this season. Salmon, Nadim and McCaskill are the key players in the Racing attack. These six represent the core group moving into 2022 that the club will protect.
Pick 3: CeCe Kizer, Michelle Betos, Emina Ekic, Yuki Nagasato, Erin Simon, Kaleigh Riehl
For the three remaining slots, decision making for the club becomes more difficult. Five of these players are regular contributors, both in minutes played and importance to the team. Ekic is not at that level yet but is also the “Hometown Girl”, the team’s fifth draft choice and has a lot of untapped potential. Riehl has settled into the second CB role recently and would solidify our backline into next season, protecting Simon would have a similar impact on our defense’s right side. Betos is the captain, has immensely helped the club’s growth through early struggles, helped set the club’s culture, has had some spectacular performances in net and become a fan favorite. Kizer and Nagasato have both contributed solidly in the attack but been missing at other times.
Of the six outlined, the club should protect Riehl, Kizer and Ekic. All three players are young and should continue to grow and contribute more. There are other options than Simon at right back should she be selected in the expansion draft. Leaving Nagasato and Betos unprotected is a gamble that they will not be drafted due to their age – they’re not likely to be building blocks for the future of the new teams. In addition, there is a wealth of good goalkeepers in the league, and it seems likely that other, younger players will be available at that position. In particular, goalkeeper Abby Smith was just traded to Portland but should be backing up Bella Bixby at that position and left unprotected as a result.
Connections to Southern California are another consideration for the front office. Matthews’ husband signed with the San Francisco 49ers recently and she may desire a move to the west coast as a result. Racing also has rights to two current Pac-12 NCAA players – Smith at Cal Berkeley and Talley at USC. They may be interesting choices for the expansion sides depending on how their fall NCAA seasons progress.
What most Racing fans are hoping for is that the front office can put together a similar trade for the rights to Heath to turn an unused asset into roster protection from San Diego as well. That is certainly a scenario being looked at right now, but it may be a little more difficult to execute depending on Heath’s desire to play there. Another possible scenario: a three-team trade between Portland, Racing and San Diego. Heath loved playing in Portland, San Diego could negotiate for a couple players from Portland and Racing receives allocation money and roster protection.
The following list is what Racing would need to submit to the league office if there are no other roster changes between now and the deadline.
KC NWSL 2 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Coach Holly used the word hangover to describe the effort last night, and I have to admit that I thought of that word too based on Racing's first half performance. “Fatigue” was used as an explanation if not an excuse seemingly every minute during the match commentary on Paramount Plus. Whatever the reason, the first half effort was poor. KC had done nothing in my eyes to indicate that an effort like the one that put forward against Racing was forthcoming. They looked frankly awful against Racing in Louisville earlier this month. The announcing team said that they “played well" in a 4-0 loss vs. NCC in Cary, but how well could you have played losing by 4 goals? Regardless, KC didn't necessarily look like the better team last night, but the effort they put forward meant they got to enjoy all 3 points. Sometimes a team can win a game in a single half.
While it was encouraging to see Racing pull back a goal with plenty of time to spare, a 2 goal deficit is a tough hill to climb for most teams, let alone an expansion one. I asked Sean Rollins who covers the Orlando Pride at what point did he feel like Orlando was no longer an expansion team. He said it took into the second year. I think that's a fair assessment. However, Racing is still on pace to set the expansion team record for points and win percentage, and have won a trophy. I was hoping that maybe they could shake off that expansion label a little earlier, but I think based on last night's performance it’s going to apply for the remainder of the season.
Speaking of the trophy, I stick by my assessment that Racing needed to win in KC for that victory in The Women's Cup to be an unqualified success. The trophy now came with a verifiable cost. There was no guarantee that if Racing had completely rested its normal starters for the Women's Cup final that it would have picked up all 3 points in KC, but if a “hangover” is going to be used as an excuse then I get to say that the trophy is a bit tarnished. The good news is that the tarnish is only temporary and will hopefully be forgotten by the time the season is over. For now it seems like Racing potentially sacrificed at least 3 points in the league for a (let's be completely honest here) “minor trophy”. I think that's probably a fair trade in a league that they aren't going to win. Arsene Wenger, Arsenal's greatest coach used to say that qualifying for the Champions League is “like a trophy". He was lambasted in the press for saying this during a 9 year trophy drought at Arsenal in which they qualified for the Champions League every year. Now almost every team in England would rather qualify for the Champions League vs. win the FA Cup, let alone a smaller honor. I say this because I would consider “First Expansion Team to Qualify for the NWSL Playoffs” a higher honor/accomplishment that winning an exhibition trophy. However, they don’t give out a trophy for that and qualifying for the playoffs seems less likely now.
Back to last night's match for a few comments. Sometimes you can throw the stats away after a match because they provide almost no illumination. Your eyes told you all you needed to know last night. KC clearly jumped on Racing's slow start and pelted the Racing goal with shots and crosses until they got a lead. They used Racing's continued sloppiness to get a second. If you need one stat to explain the match I guess shots on goal will do the trick. KC won that battle 7 to 2.
Racing has to recover from their hangover quickly because they have a match to play in Houston on Saturday before returning home to host OL Reign. Racing will likely not be favored to win any of their remaining matches, so now we get to see if this team is really ready to fight for a playoff spot.
KC NWSL 2 Racing 1
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing showed that they are not quite ready to be a consistent team yet. I don't buy the fatigue narrative given by the Paramount Plus team. You can't lift a trophy and then put in a performance like this. Winning a trophy also means I also won’t pull any punches in my player ratings going forward.
Betos-6: Typical game. Had to make too many saves, but I wonder if she got caught a little flat footed on the second KC goal.
Fox-6: Anonymous for the most part. Not her best effort.
Simon-4: Needed taking off if just to get some rest. Also needed a teammate to shout that she had time on the own goal, but still made an absolutely awful mess of it.
Riehl-6: Solid, but unspectacular.
Bonner-6: I think she must have broken a mirror while walking under a ladder and stepping on a crack in the pavement, because she has had a rough few games physically. Still fought hard.
McCaskill-5: For some reason looked two steps slower going forward vs. defending. Seemed to always pick the wrong way to pivot when in possession too.
Nagasato-6: I thought she injected some energy in the 2nd half.
Olofsson-4: Racing finally paid the price for overworking her. Her bad pass led to goal one and was caught flat-footed on the second.
Salmon-5: Seems like a different player when she plays too wide. Tonight she often received tbe ball in wide areas, but could do nothing with it.
Nadim-7: Surely only substituted to protect her hamstring. Her class shows in every match. Racing's chances of finding a second goal fell precipitously when she was subbed off.
Kizer-8 (Player of the Match): Hit a stunning goal from a difficult angle. Had 2 chances created as well.
Otto-6: Steady as a replacement for Olofsson.
Miramontez-5: Played fine until the first yellow. Then absolutely deserved a straight red for the hair pull. I’m not sure how the NWSL reviews cards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that second yellow upgraded to red.
KC NWSL v Racing Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
These two teams faced each other about two and a half weeks ago, so I don’t think much has changed other than this match being in KC vs. Louisville. In a nutshell, KC is the worst team in the league by quite a distance. For a comparison, Racing are closer to 3rd place Washington (6 points) than they are to last place KC (9 points). The key to this match will be for Racing to put on a calm, professional performance and leave KC with 3 points. That should be the expectation at this point. If Racing can take care of business, they will enter the weekend at 19 points and be within striking distance of a playoff spot. In my opinion other than Portland and North Carolina, no other team can feel safe about securing a playoff spot. It's basically a 7 team race for 4 spots. I was just about ready to write off Racing at the end of July, but now I think they have a shot. It's probably the least likely of the 7 to ultimately make the playoffs, but the team has to be brimming with confidence.
That is why this match is probably the most important match of the league season so far. A draw or a loss won't eliminate Racing from the playoff picture, but winning a match like this where you are the favorite is key to the growth of the club. Prior to this match I didn't feel like any outcome would have been a disaster. Anything other than 3 points here still may not qualify as a disaster, but it would be close.
Racing should be somewhat rested. I think Betos should be good based on media reports and the brief interaction I had with her on Saturday while she was toting a toddler around the field following her trophy lift. I think the fact that Nadia Nadim was on the bench means that she should be available, but that will depend on how her hamstring feels during warm up on Wednesday evening. Other than that, I expect the injury report to be the same as it has been. Hendrix could be on there, but was fine after the match according to her comments to me. One of the nice things that players do is stick around to sign autographs after matches. One of the hazards of this is me asking questions after they sign a few items. However, I generally only ask about how they are feeling. I didn't want to mislead anyone into thinking that I have any extra access other than the access that my seats provide. I am usually too busy during the week with work or busy writing players ratings after the match to engage in any proper media outlets that Racing provides. Full disclosure: I did get invited to the reception the Racing hosted for the Women's Cup, but I mostlly just talked to fellow content creators there, bar a quick picture with Gorp and a chat with Christy Holly about Arsenal. All of this to say that I don't get any extra insight or access into the club than any other fan could get. I’m just pushy enough to politely ask questions to players in hopes of getting a response.
Prediction time: Last time Racing played KC I predicted a Racing loss. I was blissfully incorrect. I don't believe in superstitions or jinxes so I’m going to say 2-1 to Racing with KC scoring a late goal to make the last few minutes a little nervous.
Racing 2 Bayern 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
If I were the head coach of Racing Louisville FC, I would have made a list of priorities for Saturday's match. My priorities would have been in this order:
Rest as many starters as you can.
Use the match to evaluate talent you normally don't get to see in a match.
Don't have any major injuries.
Win a trophy.
This is what I call “The Cup Strategy”. It is the tried and true method that the biggest clubs in Europe use in their domestic Cup competitions. The league is always the primary focus. If you have a European competition it is usually 1a. In England you have 2 domestic cups so those get to be used as chances to see younger players and fringe squad players. Since the cups clog up the schedule quite a bit, you have to rotate your squad. If you're lucky, you advance while saving your best players for more “important” competitions. Of course, if you continue to advance ultimately you use your best players to try to win a trophy.
Unfortunately there is no direct correlation for women's club soccer in America. The Challenge Cup is not played during the regular season, so there is no need to rotate for it. I wish their was a Cup competition. Maybe one day when there is a true Women's soccer pyramid in America.
In Racing's case you have the Women's Cup. How do you rank this trophy? If you played 6 matches over 5 months and survived and advanced, I think you would really value it, but probably not as much as a league trophy. To win this trophy Racing “won" two matches on penalties. It was exciting. It was good for the city. It was Racing's first “trophy”. It probably isn't super important. Or maybe said better: Racing's goal as an organization is to make this trophy less and less significant. It will always be remembered fondly, because it is the first trophy. Racing now has something even better than a trophy. They now have belief.
Don't get me wrong. I’m sure they had some belief prior to this: belief in the system, belief in their coaches, and belief in each other. Now the belief they have is the belief that than can win every match. Of course they won't win every match, but they should believe they can. I’m not sure that the team that took their first trip to Portland really believed they could win that match. Now they believe and know that they can.
But back to the match…
Every decision that Coach Holly made for this match seemed right to me.
He rested most of his regular starters, with only Betos and Simon starting. Betos never “needs" to rest and Simon rarely plays 90 minutes, and both were subbed off.
With Matthews struggling with what appeared to be cramping, and Bayern overwhelming the midfield in the last part of the first half, he brought on Freja Olofsson and changed formation.
He learned these tbings by his use of rotation:
Jorian Baucom probably deserves more playing time, but the strikers in front of her make her a victim of the numbers. Jorian was one of the big winners in my mind because her value to the team increased in everyone's mind and she will look pretty tempting to San Diego and Los Angeles in the expansion draft if she doesn't get much more playing time here.
Hendrix and Martin can still be counted on at center back.
Taylor Otto can give Freja an occasional break in the midfield.
Lauren Milliet has not had a drop in quality or effort, even if she has been dropped from the starting XI.
Your can trust Katie Lund as your backup keeper. Coach Holly said in a post match interview and reiterated when I asked him directly after the match that the plan was always to give her some game time in this match. It turned out better than anyone would have dared dream
He sent on some regular starters when the trophy was there for the taking. I was 95% certain that as soon as Racing went behind a goal, that Katie was getting minutes in goal. Coach Holly had her warm up almost immediately and gave her specific instructions. I don't want to put thoughts in his head that he didn't have, but if it was me I would have been thinking “We’ve played well, but now it time to see what I have in Katie, and it’s much easier to send her in down a goal.” Of course before she could come in the game was level. I think he decided to go for it at this point. On came Yuki, Savannah, Riehl for Hendrix and Lund for Betos.
He put the pressure on late. Early in the match neither team seemed too interested in pressing. Bayern pulled the trigger on their pressing in the later part of the first half. Racing reciprocated with extra pressure late, but with fresh legs.
The fans will always want to their team to win a trophy and beat a big name team. Fans want memories, but coaches want progress. Christy Holly was brave in his selection, but it was the right decision to rest starters in the grand scheme of things. If Racing would have lost, it still would have been the right decision. His team rewarded his decision with a nice victory.
There is one more thing needed to make this victory complete and that is to win Wednesday night in KC. There cannot be a trophy hangover. Win in KC and this victory will be even sweeter, because this victory was a very happy ancillary benefit of preparing for Wednesday.
Racing 2 (7) Bayern 2 (6)
I was going to write this win or lose: Coach Holly didn't get distracted by shiny things. In the end he had his cake and ate it too. Racing achieved winning a trophy and didn't have to burn their starters.
Betos-7: Had her usual good night before being subbed off for what I assume to be concussion concerns since Racing got a 7th sub.
Hendrix-7: Acquitted herself well before being subbed off with an injury.
Milliet-8: Showed that she is of starting quality and had the assist on Yuki's goal.
Miramontez-6: Steady, but had one great pass and one not so great give away.
Martin-7: Played the whole match and made a case to start again.
Simon-7: Will this woman ever get a day off?
Ekic-7: Played hard and was good going forward and in recovery.
Otto-7: Filled in admirably in Freja's usual spot.
Matthews-6: Will need to watch over her shoulder now to keep Baucom out of the squad.
McClure-6: A bit of an anonymous performance but had a few good touches.
Baucom-8: Her hard work paid off in a goal and probably earned herself some minutes.
Olofsson-7: No rest for the weary because Racing needed her to steady the midfield.
Nagasato-8: Hit a fantastic goal on the cross from Milliet. Worked hard in limited minutes.
Lund-9 (Player of the Match): An easy call. You make the last penalty for your team and save the next one, you get player of the match. It’s good to know what quality Racing has in its backup keeper.