BLOG
Racing 3 Pride 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
It's a welcome return to the victory column tonight for Racing and it's as good a time as any to return to the Player Ratings post. By the way, both of the Katies’ moms were in the stadium tonight and got to witness good performances from their daughters.
Lund-7: Despite conceding an early goal, was rarely troubled after that. Her distribution was good on both long and short passes.
Fox-8: Back in her familiar left back role, she looked as comfortable and confident as ever.
Martin/Riehl-7: The centerback pairing got off to an uneasy start conceding a goal early, but after that looked assured and comfortable in possession.
Ashley-7: Looks more confident with each start.
Otto-8: Once again completed over 80% of her passes and looks so comfortable on the ball.
Millet-7: Had a decent effort that was slightly off target and played effectively in the role usually occupied by McCaskill.
McClure-8: Her flashes of talent in previous matches finally paid off tonight in her best effort in a Racing kit to date.
Kizer-7: Had a couple of shots and completed 3 dribbles which was a match high.
Yuki-8: So calm and steady in possession in her night as captain. Finished the night with a goal and an assist.
Salmon-9 (Player of the Match): Hit the equalizer with skill and conviction at the end of the first half, had an assist on Yuki's goals and a vital touch on Katie's. She needed a good performance for her confidence and I don’t think you could have asked for a better one.
I will dig more into this tomorrow, but I thought Racing dominated the final 70+ minutes of the match and completely outmatched Orlando in the 2nd half. It may have been the best performance of the season.
Racing v Pride Preview
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
With a victory on Saturday, Racing Louisville can eliminate the Orlando Pride from playoff contention. If Racing do come away with a win or draw, they will have done so with several key players out:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT/SEI)
F NADIA NADIM (OUT/SEI)
D GEMMA BONNER (OUT)
F SAVANNAH McCASKILL (OUT - SUSPENDED)
D JULIA ASHLEY (QUESTIONABLE)
McCaskill is out due to a one game suspension for an accumulation of 5 yellow cards this season. This likely means we will once again see Emily Fox (newly recalled to the USWNT) in midfield again. I asked her about her favored position after practice on Thursday and she said that she enjoyed the midfield even though she's only played there twice for Racing. She was also pretty clear that she would play wherever the need dictates, both for Racing and the USWNT. It will be interesting to see if she ends up playing completely different positions for club and country going forward.
Once again the biggest test in my opinion will be how Racing performs without Bonner anchoring the defense. If previous matches are an indication the answer is “not well”. Maybe with a little more match time together the group will play more as a cohesive unit. The availability of Julia Ashley could throw a monkey wrench into those plans. In fact, if Ashley isn't available, Coach Sanchez may decide that he needs Fox out wide. If that is the case, I think we could see Olofsson and Otto play 90 minutes together.
Coach Sanchez said something interesting after practice yesterday in regards to playing time. He basically said that even though Racing are eliminated from the playoffs, playing time is still earned on how the player is performing in practice. I think at least for this match that Coach Sanchez will start his best available XI.
Obviously the other big news from this week is that Louisville will be hosting the NWSL final. Racing is expecting a potential record crowd on Saturday evening. Attendance has been really good this year, but a sellout or near sellout of Lynn Family Stadium for the final would do a tremendous amount of good for both Racing and LouCity. If CBS can show a full Stadium on Saturday, November 20th it will be a great potential recruiting tool for players both on the men’s and women’s team. Tickets are on sale now and I encourage anyone who can to buy tickets. The pricing is very affordable!
Racing Pass Networks with Arielle Dror
If you read this blog on a regular basis, you have surely read about my feeling about the teams collective passing performance and positioning being the key to their success. I have recently become fascinated with the work of Arielle Dror on Twitter. If you don’t follow Arielle, you absolutely should. Arielle is s data scientist who works with American Soccer Analysis. If you are a regular Twitter user you are probably familiar their data being used for g+ GameFlow charts or many other xG models. Since Benton from VamosMorados.com has covered xG in depth, I wanted to focus on the charts that Arielle creates.
I have mentioned on this blog at least a few times and definitely on Twitter that I am not a big fan of xG. I am not a huge detractor of the measure either, I just don’t find the way in which it is typically presented particularly useful if you watched the match. (Almost everyone else I respect and have spoken to about xG like Arielle, Benton and Zach-Allen Kelly disagrees). The exception to this is Arielle’s xG “Race Plots” which are presented on a graph with match time on the x-axis and cumulative xG on the y-axis. Her graphs are annotated with the actual goals shown at the point in time with the corresponding xG value for the shot that led to the goal. The other cool feature is the win probability chart on the bottom. I believe that Arielle told me that this was based on a set number of simulations based on the xG values from the match. Here is the xG plot from Racing’s most recent match:
You can see that Racing had a 5% chance of winning the match based on simulations using the xG values for the shots in the match. All of this is a bit of a preamble and context setting to get to what I really want to talk about and that is Arielle’s fascinating Pass Networks.
If you have ever worked in a technology or technical/process discipline you have probably come across a network diagram. These diagrams are often shown to demonstrate “flow”. That flow can be materials, people, knowledge, data, etc. Several analysts and data scientists like Arielle have started to use network diagrams as a template for Pass Network visuals. These charts are a fascinating way at examining a team’s positioning and passing. Let’s take a look at the Pass Networks from the same match.
The Spirit’s Pass Network is typical of a team that performed well in my opinion. Pass Network are built using goals added (g+). These values measure a player’s on-ball contribution in attack and defense. For more on g+ visit American Soccer Analysis here. The nodes on the charts represent the players and are based on their “average” position on the field when getting a touch. The size and color of the node are based on the player’s frequency of touch and the value of those touches. “Edges” are the line segments and represent connections of greater than 5 passes, with the thickness of the edge representing the frequency. Now I want to venture into the unscientific part of the analysis. Most people will tell you there is a bit of art and science in any analysis. To my mind, a Pass Network should mimic your formation and playing philosophy. For example most Pass Network charts that I have seen have a nice diamond or sideways “kite-like” shape. I wouldn’t go so far as to call this optimal, but it is definitely typical. Examining this particular Pass Network tells me a few things:
1. The Spirit preferred their attacking right hand side. There are more nodes there and the widest nodes are on the bottom half of the chart.
2. Several players completed over 5 passes to a wide variety of players. For example, Kelley O’Hara had a connection with 7 other players where she passed or was passed to by the other player.
3. I may have under valued Trinity Rodman’s contribution to the Spirit. While I still think she need to work on her finishing, she was a vital cog in the build up to the goals. The red color on her node is a positive value and is due to her two assists in the match.
As a point of contrast here is Racing’s Pass Network from the same match:
Here are the things that jump out at me from this chart:
1. Erin Simon and Cheyna Matthews basically only received or passed the ball through single routes with Kaliegh Riehl and Yuki Nagasato respectfully. Any connections with other players would have involved fewer than four passes.
2. There are much fewer passing triangles in the Racing’s chart. Almost every Spirit player was involved in multiple passing triangles. In Racing’s chart none of the forwards was really involved in a passing triangle at all.
3. Racing’s chart looks disconnected at points, demonstrated by a couple of edges that dead end. Washington’s chart seems connected at all points.
4. There was virtually no passing in the direction of play that I would classify as wide to center. Effective play in my opinion utilizes playing the ball from wide players into the central ones especially in attack. Look at the chart below from Racing’s match vs. North Carolina. You will see what effective wide play looks like, especially from Carson Pickett. You will also notice that even though she is at left back, Carson’s average position was in the attacking half.
For a comparison, here is Racing’s Pass Network for the same game and the less said about it the better:
These are basically pictorial representations of a few of my main issues with Racing’s play. They don’t utilize the width of the field effectively, especially in attack and their forwards are often isolated and not involved in much build up play. In Racing’s better performances, you can definitely see better Pass Networks. Let’s take a look at three of Racing’s better performances: a 0-3 win at Chicago, a 1-1 draw in Orlando and a 1-1 draw at home vs. OL Reign.
Let’s start off with the win in Chicago:
Honestly, this is a peculiar looking Pass Network at first glance. It looks like all of the play from the back came via the Martin/Fox/Olofsson connection. It’s definitely not a typical look of a winning Pass Network performance. On the other hand, there was definitely a direct Bonner/McCaskill/Millet connection that seemed to be effective in cutting through the heart of midfield and ignoring Racing’s weakness of wide play in the attacking half. Savanah McCaskill had the most valuable touches in the match which is denoted by the red-orange color of the node (1 goal, 2 chances created). Arielle pointed out to me the number of edges (7) coming from her node. This is a good example of a player dictating play.
For the 1-1 draw at Orlando:
This is a typical Pass Network that you seem from most teams. There are quite a few triangles and virtually no islands, bar the late appearance of Julia Ashley. You might also notice that a deep dropping Salmon was more involved that when she plays further up the field.
The last Pass Network is from the 1-1 Draw vs. OL Reign on September 4th.
Again, you will notice Salmon on her lonely island. Jorian Baucom, while connected seems only connected via two players. This Pass Network probably best shows Nadia Nadim’s impact. Her average position is in the 10 spot on the field. However, there are still quite a few disconnects in the network.
So, what is the take away from all of this? For me it would be interesting to know if data like this is being used by the team to evaluate performances. I think it is a great way to quickly see where your team’s passing strengths and weaknesses lie. For Racing, I hope that at least if the team is using this particular view, the analysis of passing will lead to an improvement in play next year.
I would like to say a very special thank you to Arielle Dror who supplied all of the charts in this post and who was kinds enough to review my thoughts and suggest a few edits. You should definitely follow Arielle on Twitter @arielle_dror.
Spirit 3 Racing 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing are now officially eliminated from NWSL playoff contention. Saturday's loss was similar in scoreline to the last few losses, but the performance was improved.
Racing's top 3 draft picks in the 2021 NWSL College draft were for once all on the field and healthy. The 198 combined minutes played by Fox, Otto and Ekic were the most minutes played by the top 3 draft picks in a match. A few words on each:
Fox: Emily started in midfield for the second consecutive match and was just as effective in this role as she has been at left or right back. I believe that she will almost certainly start there again in the next match with McCaskill picking up her 5th yellow card of the season which requires her to miss the next match. As I said before, the decision on where she plays in the future will depend on need.
Otto: Taylor played a full 90 for the first time in her professional career. She looked solid on the ball and completed 86% of her passes. This was the first time that I have had the chance to see her play more than 45 minutes. It's easy to see why she is so highly regarded. I believe we might see a Fox, Otto, Olofsson midfield next match.
Ekic: Emina has been getting sporadic playing time, but in the last couple of matches has looked more like the player she did earlier in the season. I’m convinced that 2 of her shots would have found the back of the net if not for timely blocks by a Spirit player. Her other shot produced a nice save from Bledsoe.
Cheyna Matthews once again looked dangerous off the bench. In fact, the subs all looked sharp. I am not going to dwell on the negatives, but I will say the to some degree disorganization led to all three goals and leave it at that.
I still think this team has a few points left in them this year, but even if they don’t, they can be proud of how hard they have fought under difficult circumstances.
Spirit v Racing Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Racing (I believe) traveled directly from Cary NC to the DC area to play their second road match in 4 days. This would be a tough trip under any circumstances, but with the players minds rightly on issues other than soccer the trip has to be extra rough. I want to say a couple of things about the fans general response to the calls for change. I know that nobody wants to hear the word patience, but some of the changes that need to happen can't happen overnight. In fact, I would argue that in some cases, quick fixes are only band-aids. The things that can happen quickly should happen quickly like the firing of all abusers. What worries me a bit is that if you only fire the people in the system, the system recovers and persists. And guess what…systems cannot be fixed overnight. You can implement policies and procedures quickly, but convincing bad people to follow policy doesn't work. So I would ask for patience for some of the things that need to happen. Included in this is the desire for the public to know what happened in every situation. If the victim wants to come forward publicly then I am all for that, but there can not a priority put on the whole truth becoming public at the expense of the victim. Secondly, do not boycott this team. Only the players suffer in this scenario. Betos and McCaskill said publicly that they want fans at games. If this last week has soured your appetite I get it, but don’t take it out on the players. I believe and hope that the NWSL's investigation of Racing will prove them to have handled all situations appropriately.
Now on to soccer stuff. I don't yet know if the injury report is any different for Saturday, but I will post on Twitter as soon as I find out. With the club trying out a few new things on Wednesday, I expect to see some of the players who were rested (Betos, Nagasato, Baucom) back in the lineup. This late in the season I don’t think any injury will be risked, so I expect Kizer and Bonner to get rested again unless fully healthy. In these last few games I am less concerned by the score than the performance. After an uptick in the middle of the season, the passing accuracy and shots have dropped again. Over the last few matches in the season, I believe the focus will be on cleaning up the passing and creating more opportunities.
No predictions for the rest of the year. I might psych myself up for player ratings if there is a win, but if not I will probably forgo those until the season is over. Good luck to the team vs. Washington!
Courage 3 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
On a night where the actual game had much less meaning, it was difficult for me to be critical of any player. This made doing my normal player rating post virtually impossible. If you are interested in objective stat based player ratings you can visit Fotmob. I am going to stick to positives and neutral observations from the match in this post, for the most part. Bullet points feel like the right format.
Michelle Betos said in the post match interview that the plan was to have the players stop for 6 minutes in an effort to demonstrate how long 6 minutes is and to compare that length of time of inactivity to 6 years of silence from the league on improving player safety. Ultimately the players didn't think that they could handle those 6 minutes emotionally and then continue to play.
I found Kaylyn Klye's reactions during the Paramount Plus broadcast to be pure and honest. I found her emotional reactions refreshing and I wish that she didn't feel the need to apologize for expressing her genuine emotions.
In his post match interview, Coach Sanchez used the word “proud” frequently to express his feelings on how the Racing players have responded in the last few days.
Moving more to the on the field observations, Katie Lund made her NWSL debut and I thought she performed well, but she still has room to grow.
Emily Fox is what Racing has been missing in midfield: someone who can drive the team forward from the defending third to the attacking third in multiple ways. She can pick a pass to find a teammate, but maybe uniquely on this team can dribble effectively through the opponents midfield and create mismatches in attack by leaving defenders behind her. Racing will have to decide next year after the player movement/draft period whether the team's need is greater in midfield or at left or right back and assign Fox to the area of greatest need.
Emina Ekic finally looked like the player she did earlier in the season in her 30 or so minutes. She has been dealing with nagging injuries, so maybe those are behind her now.
I think it was important that Ebony Salmon get a full 90 minutes. This may be a coincidence, but she looked much more comfortable with Emina as a strike partner vs. Matthews. In the final 30 minutes she looked more sure of herself and played better in my opinion. The next Racing coach will be key to continuing her development.
McCaskill's goal was a fine piece of skill and quality made by it's much less cooler partner - hustle. Erin Simon's effort to recover he misplaced pass led directly to Savannah's opportunity. One of the things that I believe people miss in soccer is how much effort and hustle contribute to your ability to show your flair and quality. If you have a chance, check out the current Womens European champions Barcelona. I watched them tear through my Arsenal team on Tuesday. They were relentless. Arsenal may be the best team in England and they looked completely outmatched. Barcelona hustled to every ball. This is often an overlooked component in high pressing teams with as much quality as Barcelona. While their passing accuracy was a mind blowing 89% the more impressive thing to me is that they treated the 11% as an affront to their performance and looked to immediately recover their mistakes. To be fair, when only 11% of your passes are incomplete you can fight fiercely for every errant one. I think Racing's philosophy would like to mimic Barcelona's. My ill-informed suggestion would be to focus on the passing accuracy, then the pressing. Maybe this is what they are doing in practice, but the numbers haven't shown it in matches.
I don’t want to end on a downer, so I want to finish on a more positive note. In their post match interview Betos and McCaskill were firm on the players demands, but I thought they seemed optimistic on the opportunity for change. They also said, prompted by an excellent question from Becki Morgan, that the fans can help by amplifying their message. I would encourage everyone to spread their message for the need for accountability and change to as many people as possible.
Courage v Racing Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
It's hard to know when to resume “regular” or “normal” activity after the news of last Thursday. I hate to even consider what “normal” is in this league given the continuous parade of stories reporting heinous and despicable behavior. This league needs transformation not normalcy. However, unless you want to “burn the thing down” (which I don’t think is an unreasonable idea) the NWSL is going to try to press on while attempting to fix its many problems. I decided since there is going to be a return to game action on Wednesday that I would resume my usual cadence of posting a match preview the day before the match.
First off, the women on these teams are professionals and will do their jobs, which should solely be the game of soccer by the way. On the other hand, they are human and completely within their rights to have their minds on other things. I believe we will see focused performances on the field from both teams, even if part of that focus is just to escape the outside pressures of the current environment for 90 minutes.
On the Racing side, here is the depressing injury report:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT/SEI)
F NADIA NADIM (OUT/SEI)
D GEMMA BONNER (OUT)
F CECE KIZER (QUESTIONABLE)
Not having Bonner usually means a greater struggle on the defensive side.
As for the Courage, they will be under the guidance of Sean Nahas as their interim coach. The Courage will have to adjust to a new coach, but if that is the most difficult thing the women on the team have to deal with this week, I’m pretty sure they will count in as a win.
No prediction for a scoreline, but I predict a good effort from both clubs.
Racing v Gotham (Postponed) Player Ratings
There obviously wasn't a match last night but every player who has ever played a minute in this league gets a rating of 10 out of 10 from me today. We are behind you 100%.
Racing v Gotham preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
Sometimes you just want to write a match preview and the dumpster fire that is the NWSL just won't stop burning. Oh well, I am going to set said dumpster fire to the side, knowing that it will continue to burn into the foreseeable future and write about the match-up between Racing and Gotham tomorrow.
What is happening indeed?
Racing has a clean injury report for once, with only the known season ending injuries to Nadim and Merrick listed. I hope that means we see either Bonner or Riehl or both return to the starting XI. I think I have changed my mind a bit about how much talent evaluation I believe the team should do in the last 5 matches. I think wholesale changes make the team hard to evaluate. I would like to see Lund get a start with Bonner and Riehl. We already saw what a backline of Hendrix and Martin combined with Betos looks like, so it would maybe be nice to also see a Hendrix Riehl and Betos setup one more time, but honestly there is game film on that lineup from earlier in the season. I also think we've seen enough of the forwards to know the strengths there. The one other thing that I would like to see is Fox in the midfield, with maybe Ashley and Martin in as the right and left back. Either way, I expect the strongest possible starting XI against Gotham.
I spoke with Gary Gibson from the Soccer Over Gotham podcast earlier this week, so I am going to let him do the heavy lifting on the Gotham side:
Gotham has gone through a lot over the past month or so. They lost 3 starters to injury (Freeman, Purce, Monaghan) and had a coach pulling double duty and experimenting with formation changes on her way out. Our new coach Scott Parkinson did what our previous coach didn’t, which was put our players in positions to succeed with a 4-3-3 formation and playing aggressively. We already know how stout this defence is. It's time to take the restrictor plate off the offense. Midge Purce is the player that makes everything go offensively. She can burn defenders, demand attention, draw penalties and most importantly hold the ball up and allow other players to get forward into the attack.
I also asked about Gotham's position for a move up into a playoff spot:
Gotham is in a great position to make the playoffs. They are currently sitting right below the line with games in hand, 4 points away from 3rd place with a game in hand on NC (who they just beat and play again) and 2 games on hand on the 4th and 5th place team. With the return of starting attackers Midge Purce and Paige Monaghan who both scored in their return there is very little doubt that not only can Gotham make the playoffs but can make a run at the title.
While on the Soccer Over Gotham podcast I predicted a 2-0 victory for Gotham. I will stick with that prediction knowing full well that it pretty much guarantees that the scoreline will not be 2-0 Gotham.
September Fleur-de-lis-fc.com Player of the Month
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
There were 3 matches in September with Racing only winning a single point. That makes the player of the month a tough call. Since I have no really strong feelings about a player for this month, I will go with the winner of the Twitter poll, Emily Fox.
Emily has been good all season (although she did have a rare substandard performance against Houston). Her switch to right back from left back was a notable occurrence in September. Her flexibility has been a strength for the team, but I hope that next season finds her in a more permanent role.
In case you are wondering who my personal choice was, it was CeCe Kizer. CeCe had the top rated performance according to Fotmob in 2 of the 3 matches. I'm not quite sure why I didn't just award the Player of the Month Award to Ms. Kizer other than my general indifference to the performances in September. The lesson here is that next time I should probably just ignore the Twitter poll.
Racing 0 Dash 4 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Racing put in one of their worst performances in recent memory in the match Sunday afternoon vs. the Houston Dash. In case you were wondering, I am an idiot and should never be taken that seriously in any of my predictions or analysis. I predicted a victory in this match for Racing, and frankly once they went behind, they never looked like they were seriously in the match. To be fair I made my prediction prior to finding out that both Bonner and Riehl were listed as questionable on the injury report. In the end, Racing were doomed when the team sheet came out. It's hard to win in this league even with your two starting CBs completely healthy. Nothing against Hendrix and Martin, but they just haven't played together competitively in months, and it showed. Martin had a pretty bad touch that led to Houston's 2nd goal, but nobody bathed themselves in glory with their defensive efforts. Fox couldn't hang with Nichelle Prince at all in the first half. The 3rd goal was a comedy of errors and looked like a goal you might see in a youth match.
On the attacking side, Racing wasn't much better. Matthews looked dangerous early, but couldn't put a shot on target. In fact, nobody did. The passing accuracy was (not to go full British but…) bloody awful. The second half passing accuracy was a frankly embarrassing 59%. Racing had 46% possession, but precious little of it was in Houston's half.
This next sentence is going to sound self-contridictary, but it's what I think it sums up Racing's major problem. Racing plays too slowly from the back which causes poor decisions by rushing their passes. Playing out from the back can be a really effective way to control a match if you can do it effectively. Racing plays too slowly from restarts and allows the defense to push up on them before they make their next pass. When you play slowly from the back you invite pressure. When you play quickly but intentionally from the back you can slice through a defense effectively. In this match especially Racing seemed to dawdle until forced to make a pass, and then rushed into a tougher pass or a bad decision. If there is one thing that not being a gifted athlete will teach you, it's that you have to play the ball quickly. Sometimes younger athletes forget the cardinal rule of any sport: nobody is faster than the ball. When the ball moves quickly, you don't have to. More important than your attacking philosophy, the speed at which your team moves the ball will dictate your success. Go back and watch Racing's goals. They almost all result from quick team moves or the quick decision to press. Or maybe I'm an idiot, which as I stated earlier is entirely possible.
Regardless, surely now we can file away any talk of playoffs and begin to focus on next season. Based on what I saw today, I think I would be very cautious about how many changes to make in a single match, especially in defense. Salmon needs to build back her confidence, and if Racing wants her to lead the line next year she needs to start the remaining matches. Betos deserves a break, and seemed to take today's loss especially hard. I heard Fox did as well. The match on Friday will be an important test to see how Racing respond from this disappointing performance.
Racing 0 Dash 4 Player Ratings
It was was rather lackluster showing by Racing at Lynn Family Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The back four seemed unsettled the entire match and the attack couldn't seem to work the ball out of Racing's own half.
Betos-6: Had a good save, but struggled to pass the ball cleanly to any Racing players.
Fox-6: Nicholls Prince bullied her the entire match.
Martin-5/Hendrix-5: We now see the full value of the Bonner/Riehl partnership.
Simon-6: Of the defenders, had the best game.
Olofsson-5: Struggled to have much impact.
McCaskill-5: At fault for the first goal with a poor first touch.
Milliet-6: Tried hard in attack, but couldn't seem to get on the same page with the front two to make a lethal pass.
Matthews-6/Nagasato-6: Matthews has a few nice chances and Yuki looked sharp in her limited time on the pitch.
Kizer-7 (Player of the Match): I had to pick someone, and she seemed to be the most consistently positive attacking force.
Salmon-5/Baucom-5: Didn't really do much to threaten the Dash goal.
Quick Racing v Dash Preview
Courtesy EM Dash
Of course the last time Houston came to town, this happened…
That was a great moment. Will Ebony be on the bench again for a chance to repeat history?
With Nadia Nadim out for the remainder of the season, Racing will be looking to replace her attacking prowess. If I were selecting the line up against Houston on Saturday, this would be my formation:
Built using buildlineup.com
Obviously I’m not, so we will see if Baucom is preferred to Salmon again. On Soccer City Radio, Lance McGarvey talked about a playoff push. I guess this is still technically possible, but the odds are so low I would be willing to make easy money betting against it. That being said, it's a bit too early to put in a lineup of all younger players. I do think we will see a drastically changed lineup in at least a couple matches in October. If Racing were to take 3 points at home vs. Houston, and another 3 against Gotham at home then we could start to dream a bit about the playoffs.
Racing and the Dash are familiar opponents at this point. Racing has matched up well against Houston, so I give Louisville a shot at taking all 3 points at home. I have not seen any updated injury reports for this week, so I will tweet those out either today or tomorrow. As for a prediction, I will go with a 2-1 Racing victory, with Houston getting a late consolation goal.
Roster Performance and Analysis through 18 matches
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Neely Martin goes from an open tryout to being a probable returnee for next year's team.
With only 6 games remaining in the NWSL season and the playoffs almost surely out of reach, I wanted to start to think about how the team performed statistically this year and how they might set up for next year. I compared statistical performance across position groups. I believe that it would be foolish to wait until the season is over for the team to start to evaluate talent, so I have to believe these last 6 matches will serve as a chance to audition for any players that might not be locks to be on next year's team. With that in mind, for each player I will give a brief summary of any statistically relevant data, including any interesting statistical tidbits and a very preliminary evaluation of whether I believe the player will be on the 2022 roster.
Goalkeepers:
1-Betos: Michelle has played every minute of the league season. She is the only Racing player to do so. Even though Michelle leads the league in saves, she does not lead the league in saves per match. Kallen Sheridan leads of NJ/NY leads the league in saves per match with 5.3 to Michelle's 5.0. I don't want to live in a world where Michelle Betos isn't this team's captain next year.
21-Money and 22-Lund: When the season started I made flash cards for myself, so that I could learn the players by sight during matches. When Racing posted pictures from their outing at Churchill Downs, it took me a minute to remember who Shelby Money was. That's not a good sign for a player’s performance, but 3rd keeper is a tough role. Even though Katie Lund has played 0 minutes in the league so far, we are all aware of her contribution to the club. I hope she gets a start soon. I don't think Racing will draft a keeper or look for another one through open tryouts unless San Diego selects Katie through the expansion draft, which is not beyond the realm of possibility. Another bit of trivia…Katie was drafted 7 spots ahead of Michelle in the expansion draft, so the team may see her as the long term keeper.
Defenders (according to Racing's roster)
3-Simon: Erin has had a mixed bag in regards to performance this year. Her passing accuracy is lowest on the team (59%) for anyone with more than 300 minutes. She has found herself on the bench recently when she was a regular starter. My instinct is that she will continue to be a sub when used, and will get less minutes as the team finishes the season. From what I can tell she will no longer be under contract at the end of the season and I think she will be allowed to leave.
4-Bonner: Gemma rates above average for the team in the relevant categories (passing accuracy, clearances, interceptions) and is a leader on defense. She leads the team in clearances with 55 and accurate passes per minute (.49) for all players with more than 100 minutes. Gemma is under contract for 2022 and 2023, so she will be around for a while.
11-Fox: Emily leads all players who play in a “wide” or attacking positions with 78% passing accuracy. She is also Fotmob's top rated Racing Louisville player for the season with a 7.3 average rating per match. In addition she had more than double the amount of interceptions (40) than the next highest player. She should be a Racing player for as long as she wants to stay.
12-Miramontez: Ranks below average in most statistical categories. Holds the distinction of being the first and so far only Racing player to get a red card. Most likely will not be with the team next season.
14-Martin: Nealy ranks slightly above average in the relevant categories for defense. Her passing accuracy is tied for highest among defenders (81%). I think Nealy has proven reliable and will continue to get a look at left back. Her ability to play in both left sided defensive positions means that she should probably make the roster again next year.
15-Hendrix: If any player has gotten a raw deal based on statistical performance, it's been Brooke. She leads the team in both clearances per minute and interceptions per minute. However, she is on the lower side in passing accuracy for defenders (74%). I would like to see her get another shot in the lineup before the end of the season before passing full judgment on her chances of being on the team in 2022. I don't believe she is under contract, so that may lower her chances.
16-Ashley: Julia has only played 238 minutes due to injury and other factors. She was taken 2nd in the expansion draft, so she surely was going to be a larger part of the plans. I think she is under contract for next year.
18-Riehl: Kaleigh is above average in all of the relevant categories and is tied for the lead in passing accuracy among defenders. She has also played more minutes at CB than any other player. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year, but she is one to keep for sure.
26-Merrick: Addisyn has had the worst injury luck since joing Racing and has only played 57 minutes. However, in those 57 minutes she showed why Racing selected her number 1 in the expansion draft. She had 37 accurate passes in those minutes which is frankly astounding compared to the rest of the team. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year. Her health will unfortunately have a lot to do with the decision to keep her or not. If Racing decides not to keep her, she will surely catch on elsewhere.
Midfielders (according to Racing's roster)
2-Milliet: Lauren is nominally a midfielder, but “attacker” might be a better description. Honestly, the stats don't do her any favors. She is average to just below average in the relevant attacking stats (chances created, goals, assists and shots on target). Lauren is a personal favorite, but will probably be left unprotected in the expansion draft in hopes that she is selected. If not, I think it's a coin flip to see if she is back on the roster in 2022.
8-Olofsson: Freja is pretty much the only option at DM at this point, and has performed well statistically. She leads the team in passing accuracy at 84%. It's unclear if she is under contract for next year, but I think it's a safe bet that she will be on the roster in 2022.
19-Otto: Unfortunately, there isn't much to evaluate with Taylor other than a 45 minute outing in KC. She is under contract, but will probably be left unprotected. If she is not taken, she will be on the 2022 roster.
Forwards (according to Racing's roster)
5-Kizer: CeCe (along with Yuki) is one of the most accurate passers (77%) of the attacking players. She leads the “front 3” forwards in minutes, chances created and the entire team in shots on target. It's unclear is CeCe is under contract past this year, but the team will surely keep her.
7- McCaskill: Savannah leads all outfield players in minutes and chances created (31 which is 14 more than 2nd place Kizer). Her relatively low passing accuracy (69%) can be attributed to her desire to move the ball forward. She and CeCe are in the same situation via contract status. She is surely in no danger of leaving unless she pushes for it.
9-Salmon: Ebony leads the team in goals and goals per match. She has been coming on as a sub recently, but surely that is to protect her from overuse. She is under contract next year.
10-Nadim: Nadia leads the team in chances created per minute and shots on target per minute. The team will surely miss her in these last 6 matches. She is under contract for this year and next.
13-Ekic: Had one great game, and hasn't had the opportunity to do much else. Hopefully will get more minutes in these last 6 matches. Racing might be tempted to leave her unprotected in the draft. I think I would risk it. She is under contract for next year.
17-Nagasato: Leads the attackers in passing accuracy with 78%. Other than passing, she lags in the other attacking stats. Her contract status I unclear, and at 34 I would be tempted to leave her unprotected. If she is not selected by San Diego, she would definitely be welcomed back for 2022.
20-Matthews: Cheyna has a goal and an assist in her limited minutes. All of her attacking stats are at or above average. Her contract status is unclear, and probably is 50/50 on returning.
22-McClure: Katie hasn't done much statistically during her limited minutes. Little to no chance that she would be preferred to new options in attack.
27-Kara: Vanessa has not had much opportunity to show her skills, and will surely not be on the team next year.
33 Baucom: Based strictly on league performance, Jorian hasn't done much, but did score in the Challenge Cup and the Women's Cup. Even though she seems to be the preferred starter in Coach Sanchez's system, I don't think she will be on Racing's squad next year, but will surely catch on elsewhere.
Here's who I think will make at least the preliminary 2022 roster:
GK (3) Betos, Lund, Money
D (6) Bonner, Ashley, Riehl, Merrick, Martin, Fox
M (2) Olofsson, Otto
F (6) Nagasato, McCaskill, Nadim, Kizer, Salmon, Ekic
That is 17 players. The top 4 draft picks in next year's draft are probably locks to make the team, bringing the roster to 21. The current roster sits at 25. The NWSL max on the roster is supposed to be 24 with 4 supplemental players. I don't know this for sure, but I assume that Shelby Money is on the supplemental roster.
Here are the players that might be at risk to be unprotected and taken by San Diego:
Lund, Merrick, Ashley, Riehl, Milliet, Nagasato, Ekic
Pride 3 Racing 1 Player Ratings and Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
You have to score when you're in the ascendancy. That's the big lesson here. Prior to the two Pride goals in quick succession Racing had the bests chances. Racing fought back to get a second half goal, but conceded again to end up on the wrong side of a 3-1 loss.
Player Ratings
Betos-6: Her initial save on the build up to Leroux's goal was great and exactly what she had been practicing on Thursday when I was there. The actual goals were not her fault.
Fox-8: Racing's consistently best player was great again, almost scoring in the first half.
Riehl-7: Looking back, it's hard to understand why she ever was on the bench. Her play has gotten better and better since she rejoined the starting lineup. It could be argued that she has been the best CB option this season.
Bonner-6: A fairly average performance in a string of average performances.
Martin-5: Should have done better on Marta's goal. It's unclear to me why she is preferred at left back at the moment.
Olofsson-6: A little drop in quality from her last match.
McCaskill-7: Did standard McCaskill things and her corners are getting better.
Millet-7: Played the full 90, and had a decent match.
Kizer-8 (Player of the Match): It has to be said that CeCe seems to have a pretty good instict about how to place the ball on her shots. On the goal she opened up her posture to receive the ball and had the option to go left of right of the keeper. It was fabulous positioning.
Nagasato-7: Yuki had a good game as the replacement for Nadia. Her pass to Kizer on the goal was great.
Baucom-6: Had a decent effort that was wide of goal.
Other Thoughts
Nadim most likely has a torn ACL and if that is true, then her season is over. It's tough to know how much contact there was or how much it led to the injury. I didn't see anything egregious in the contact and there wasn't a card issued. I didn't think there was any ill intent in the challenge.
The officiating in this league is flat out terrible sometimes. Worse than that, it's horribly inconsistent and keeps being terrible in new and confusing ways. There was a missed offside call, which happens. The most puzzling thing was the 3 added minutes of extra time in the first half. Nadim was down for at least 3 and a half minutes. In most every other league in the world, officials add time for each goal scored. Most fans would have assumed at least 5 minutes of stoppage time was needed. I think most officials would have added that much. The other frustrating thing is that the officials are inconsistent about when to let play go on and when to stop it. I am fine with letting play go on and not calling every foul, in fact I prefer that advantages are given. However, sometimes the officials just seem to not call fouls when a team simply retains possession. These should be called consistently.
I don’t think either coach has gotten the starting XI right. This unchanged lineup looked less cohesive in its second time out. I still think the roster is too unbalanced. Racing is likely to have 2 of the top 4 draft picks in the college draft. They have to use those picks to transform the team into a group of players that wants to play how the head coach wants to play. If this team is going to insist on pressing, then the top two picks better be equipped to do that or provide cover for it.
The team and players can insist that they are still in the playoff hunt, but any reasonable person has surely given up on that by this point. With Nadia likely out for the rest of the season, Racing surely can move to talent evaluation mode.
There are 6 matches left and the organization should use those to prep for next year and beyond. I would be looking to try out some different looks and player combinations.
Pride v Racing Preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
I am a healthy scratch for this match. Let me explain…
When I was growing up in rural KY, I very rarely had the chance to attend college or pro level sporting events. Maybe once every few years, our family would make the trip to Cincinnati to see the Reds or Bengals. Occasionally we would make it to Freedom Hall to see a basketball game (usually UK's “home” game there) and I think I set foot in Rupp Arena once for a college basketball game. Don't get me wrong, I loved sports but I simply didn't have the access that I do today. I watched whatever local TV channels broadcasted until I got cable. Upon getting ESPN I followed whatever was on there including Austriailian Rules Football and Hockey, two sports that I doubt will ever be popular in central Kentucky.
Once a year, the Reds would send out a mailer that allowed you to pick a specific game or games to attend by checking a couple of boxes to select the date and the seat level. You mailed in a check and if you had nothing better to do (like me) you checked the mail everyday to see if your tickets had arrived. There was also a phone number on the mailer to call if you were interested in season tickets. THAT bit of knowledge was almost too much for my pre-adolescent brain to handle. You mean there were people who could go to EVERY game? I dreamed of being able to be one of “those” people. In retrospect maybe I should have aimed higher with my dreams, but what did a 9 or 10 year old kid know.
Which brings me to my healthy scratch. I was a U of L Football season ticket holder before Racing even existed. As it happens, this Saturday is one of the thankfully rare occasions where the U of L Football schedule clashes with the Racing schedule. Also thankfully there is no place on the schedule where they both have home games on the same date. Like most people I assume, I am opting for the live experience. Based on how terrible U of L looked on Monday, this might be a rare chance to win a game so I better make the most of it. The plan is to watch the Racing match late in the evening and give a recap on Sunday that includes player ratings.
As for the preview, I’m sure Bekki Morgan will do a much better job at that, so look for her post on The Beautiful Game Network.
However, here are a few “previewish” things. There is a rather lengthy injury report for Racing:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT)
D JULIA ASHLEY (OUT)
D SINCLAIRE MIRAMONTEZ (QUESTIONABLE)
F EMINA EKIC (QUESTIONABLE)
Julia didn't practice on Thursday, so that isn't a surprise but is a blow. Watch to see if the formation stays the same or changes. I have an inkling, but since I attended practice I am not going to share. The Soccer City Radio crew all predicted a 1-1 draw so I will go against the grain and say the 2nd goal secures a victory for Racing.
August Fleur-de-lis-FC.com Player of the Month
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
August's Player of the Month is Nadia Nadim. Nadia had two goals and an assist, helping Racing accumulate 5 points in the Month of August.
Many People voted for Michelle Betos, and she could probably win it every month, but to me Nadia was the clear choice.
Racing definitely looks like a completely different team with her on the pitch. Racing were able to win the inaugural Women's Cup without Nadia seeing even a minute of playing time, but she was clearly the most consistent player on the field in the remainder of the matches.
Here is my favorite thing about Nadia's game: she always seems to be involved. In several matches, Naida dropped deep into the midfield to pick up possession. When the service to the forwards isn't there, she takes it on to herself to move the ball forward. She is never static. If McCaskill is the team’s engine, then Nadia is steering wheel. She directs the attack from all areas on the pitch.
Congratulations to Nadia and here's to continuing success!
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Post Match Thoughts
Yuki cleverly uses her media pass to get some great content for her YouTube channel.
Coach Mario Sanchez went with a new look starting XI, but ended up with another draw. Racing hasn't won a match in full time since their victory against KC in early August. This match felt very much like the draws against NJ/NY and Chicago with Racing taking an early lead but not quite being able to hold on for all 3 points. The Reign goal came from an attack from out wide, something to which Racing seems rather susceptible. The Racing goal was a typical one as well with an incisive pass as part of a rapid move resulting in a goal. Racing rarely scores from long periods of possession.
Back to the new look. I halfway expected Coach Sanchez to stick with the standard starting XI that Coach Holly used, but he went with a lineup that had never been seen before. The most unusual switch was Fox at Right Back and Martin at Left Back. Erin Simon, a usual starter never entered the match. Sanchez also preferred Baucom to Salmon, but both were rather quiet during the match with Salmon entering for Milliet at halftime. Milliet had plenty of starts early in the season so her entry wasn't as much of a surprise with Yuki out with an injury. Here's what I inferred from the changes:
Fox is deemed too necessary for defense to be moved into midfield and that may have to wait until next year.
Baucom will get a chance to make an impact up front.
Salmon may be getting a little tired, having played a full WSL season and being used quite often at Racing.
Racing is still trying to figure out their best back 4 and may be auditioning players for a back 3.
Zach Allen-Kelly is of the opinion and I agree that there isn't quite enough NWSL starting level quality in the team. Next year there will be 2 new teams that will thin out the quality even more, if teams don't find talent in the draft of overseas. I think Racing is definitely in talent evaluation mode.
If you watched the post match videos you saw that the team hasn't given up (which is good, but fans shouldn’t expect anything better than 9th) and Coach Sanchez sure does like to swear!
He does keep it clean during the match though and although he does yell a bit, he doesn't show his frustration with the players even if he does have to give the same instructions more than once. Most of those instructions have to do with pressing, and if this team is going to consistently apply a high press, they are going to have to communicate better with each other on the pitch. Matthews seems to know when to press pretty instinctively, but the rest of the front line is a little hit or miss.
I hope everyone enjoys a nice Labor Day weekend! Believe it or not, Racing only has 2 more matches in September, so October will be a busy month.
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Player Ratings
Another day another draw. This game followed the similar pattern for most of Racing's draws with Racing scoring early and their opponent equalizing in the second half. Coach Sanchez tried a few different things. Some of them worked and some of them didn't.
Betos-7: Made some good saves, some great saves and didn't have a chance on the goal.
Bonner-7: Could be argued that she was slightly out of position for the goal, but was outnumbered in the box, so that seems harsh.
Riehl-7: Continues to play better and better each match.
Fox-7: I think the Reign might have been confused early by her switch to right back. She looked just as comfortable there.
Martin-7: Did fine in the left back spot.
McCaskill-8: Ran hard as usual and has a decent effort on goal.
Olofsson-8: Seems to now have recovered completely from her off game vs KC and looked solid as ever.
Milliet-6: Subbed off at half for Salmon who really didn't offer anything in a front 2 look with Matthews or Baucom.
Kizer -7: Kind of a quiet game other than the pass that opened up the chance for Nadim's goal.
Baucom-7: Had a shot on target, but needed more service. Matthews looked lively when she replaced her.
Nadim-8: Scored a goal and had another shot on target. Apparently was upset about something after the match, because after the team talk from Coach Sanchez she threw a water bottle at the bench and immediately left the field. This is something to see if we hear about later.
Racing v Reign Preview…but not really
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images
My wife once bought me tickets to a Pacers Cavs games back when LeBron was in his second stint with the Cleveland. As the game approached I noticed that it was the second game of a back-to-back part of the schedule. Of course LeBron had the night off and didn't travel with the team. I still had fun, but it would have been nice to see LeBron. The Cavs got destroyed (deservedly) and seeing Kevin Love just wasn't that big of a thrill. On a side note I saw a Warriors game in Oakland minus Steph Curry too, but I did get to see Durant, Thompson, Green and Anthony Davis on the Pelicans.
This little preamble is to say that fans like to see stars from the other teams. When I bought season tickets for Racing they didn't even have a coach (history repeats) let alone players. It wasn't the first thought in my mind or a deciding factor in why I bought tickets, but one of my early thoughts was “I will get to see Megan Rapinoe play in person.” She was the player I most wanted to see.
Flash Forward over a year, and now I realize that I may never get to see her play in person. I just got confirmation from Susie Rantz who covers the Reign that Coach Laura Harvey said that Rapinoe is out this weekend. I know she didn't travel with the team, so I am all but 100% sure she won't be in the stadium this Saturday. Hear this loud and clear: I DO NOT BLAME HER OR THE OL REIGN ONE BIT. How opposing fans might feel is very low down on the list of a team's concerns if it's even on the list. Megan Rapinoe is 36 years old and has played twice already this week. I don't know how many more years she is going to play, but I hope that Louisville hasn't missed its only chance to see one of the greatest soccer players to even play the game. I have said before that I don't watch a ton of international soccer, but what I do remember from watching is this: Megan Rapinoe in the 2019 World Cup was the best player on the field and it wasn't close. I’m not talking Messi or Ronaldo being the best player in their primes on the field. I’m talking it looked like she was playing FIFA on easy mode different. She did whatever she wanted, whenever she wanted. I don’t want to or mean to insult any of the other players, but she was so much noticeably better than it almost seemed unfair. Now memory is a funny thing and not a great discerning tool for finding facts or the truth, but that’s what her performance felt like to me and it's how I personally remember it. I’m sure others remember it differently.
Now on to the game. The Reign will be without Rapinoe, but had no trouble defeating Racing without her or the other Olympians in Tacoma. Racing has had a tough week and is on a 2 game losing streak. This is not a prediction but a wish…I HOPE RACING BEATS THE OL REIGN BY 5 GOALS. I HOPE THEIR FLIGHT HOME IS DELAYED. I HOPE THEY MISS THE PLAYOFFS BY A POINT AND LOOK BACK ON THIS GAME AS THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY. HOW DARE YOU DEPRIVE THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE THE CHANCE TO SEE ONE OF THE GREATEST! OUR CITY IS HOME TO THE GREATEST AND YOUR LACK OF RESPECT WILL NEVER BE FORGIVEN.
In case that wasn't clear I’m obviously being hyperbolic, but a win would be sweet.