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Kansas City 3 Louisville 0 Player Ratings/Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville couldn't find the back of the net (legally) and never seemed in the match after Aylmer picked up a second yellow early in the 2nd half. For the first time in a while, Louisville looked outmatched and a little tired from the start of the match.
Lund-6: Not really called into action much other than to pick the ball out of the back of her net.
Pickett-5: Seemed to be lacking her usual sharpness in attack.
Erceg-5: Put a substandard performance for her and looked to be out of sorts on the third goal.
Pikkujämsä-5: Overhit some long balls in attack that killed some attacking movements
Milliet-6: Not as involved as she usually was but at least tested the keeper on a decent shot.
Aylmer-4: Not the least bit impressive in her time on the pitch. Seemed to be out of position multiple times and her second yellow killed any chance for a Louisville comeback.
Baggett-7: Did her job even if nobody else lived up to their standards and put in another solid performance.
Fischer-6: Neither effective nor ineffective.
Monaghan-6: Got off a couple of shots but none were really dangerous.
Goins-5: 16 touches and zero shots tells you all you need to know.
Davis-6: Got off 3 shots and at least put the ball in the net even if it didn't count.
The story of this match boils down to the early goal given up and the 2 yellow cards for Aylmer.
The team missed Howell who made the trip, but didn't play. With Lester unavailable too, this forced Louisville into starting Aylmer. I doubt that she see the pitch for Louisville again as reinforcements will be returning soon.
It would have been nice to host a knockout round match, but not at the risk of exposing Howell to additional injury. Louisville is capable of winning on the road, so I don't think fans should take this loss too hard.
Slow starts for Louisville continue to pop up too much for my liking. The team seemed organized enough on Kansas City's early counter, but Erceg looked a step slower than normal. Hamilton still had a lot of work to do, and sometimes your opponent just beats you.
Quick Update: Delayed Player Ratings
I have plans during the match tomorrow, so expect a combined post match post on Sunday.
Kansas City v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Louisville prepared for their upcoming match in Kansas City on Thursday. With a semifinal spot secured, seeding is all that is left to play for. Louisville will surely push for a win to secure a home semifinal match. However, Kansas City will be looking to grab a win and try to salvage something out of what has so far been a disappointing season. They are by no means out of playoff contention, but I doubt anyone was projecting them to be at the bottom of the table especially this late in the season. I think this makes the Current especially dangerous on Saturday.
Louisville had to navigate the last match without Abby Erceg, and Bev Yanez (substituting for an ill Coach Björkegren) said there was “no update” on her availability. Sometimes the club provides an availability update prior to the NWSL's official availability report, and if I see it I will post in on social media (1am not calling the erstwhile Twitter by its new name…by the way, Elon Musk is a stupid person's idea of what an intelligent person sounds like.)
Louisville's forward and attacking midfield ranks are starting to get a bit overcrowded, so this might be the last chance for players like Goins, Davis, and Ekic to show that they deserve minutes. Nadia Nadim can't be too far off from taking over the starting center forward role and Kgatlana and are Kanu certainly higher on the depth chart than Ekic (Goins is debatable, so she and Kanu might be a toss up). I asked newly named July Best XI member Paige Monaghan about the competition at forward. She believes that the number of attacking players at Louisville's disposal makes them dangerous against opponents due to the options they have off the bench. I think it's fair to say that Björkegren likes to plan his substitutes and in this season subbing on forwards has been the tendency. At practice you often see players switch teams during the scrimmage and this typically indicates who is going to be subbing on in the upcoming match if things go to plan. At full strength he will probably continue the trend of naming 4 to 5 attacking options on the bench. However those 4 to 5 will no longer be as easy to select.
I think Jordan Baggett has been a key addition and could end up being the pivotal player on Saturday, so maybe keep and eye out for her against the Current. It has turned out to be a really shrewd move by Ryan Dell.
Houston 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville lacked the final product in front of goal and Houston made them pay in last night's disappointing loss. Overall the coach and players said that they were pleased with the performance if not the result. Due to Kansas City's draw vs. Chicago, Louisville still remains in control of its own destiny in the group and there is a great advantage in winning it, but the combined results last night mean that the semifinal spot is now secured.
For me the big story last night was Abby Erceg’s absence. She was listed as questionable on the availability report, but when I asked Coach Björkegren on Thursday about player availability, he didn’t mention her. During the warmup period prior to the Chicago match last Friday, Erceg came over and talked to one of Louisville's training staff. I didn’t listen into the conversation for obvious reasons, but she seemed to be dealing with a leg issue at that time so I made a mental note of this. Obviously, she came out and had a solid, if slightly below average match for her high standards vs. Chicago. I asked Björkegren after the match if it was something that Abby had been dealing with for a while. He confirmed that it was. It really did seem like a precautionary measure with Björkegren stating after the match that if it would have been a final, that Erceg would have likely been on the pitch.
As a result, that 5 to10 minute stretch where Salmon scored was a good demonstration of how Erceg’s presence on the field is key. After the match, Elli commented that while she and Lester worked together well for not having played together on the back line prior to the match, they were definitely missing Erceg’s communication and organization to some degree. Ultimately it cost them 3 points.
Louisville also couldn’t (legally) find the back of the net. I think they got some good chances, but with Erceg out they also missed her as target in the box as they had around a dozen corners. Milliet scored but was offside. That one would be a good one to look at for the “Wenger” offside rule being tested in some of Europe’s lower leagues. Obviously, Campbell was the ultimate hero for Houston as I don’t know how many times out of ten she makes that save on Nadim, but I think it’s certainly less than half and probably less than 2.
Houston 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
Louisville wasn't sharp enough to break through against Houston on the night. Some heroic goalkeeping by Campbell made sure Louisville still has work to do to secure a spot in the Challenge Cup semifinals.
Lund-7: Made a few key saves but her defense let her down on the goal.
Pickett-7: Probably Louisville's best player tonight.
Pikkujämsä-6: Solid but missed Erceg as her partner.
Lester-6: Got fooled by Salmon on the goal but probably prevented another good chance on a key interception. Too up and down to be a replacement for Erceg.
Milliet-6: Was out of position on the goal,and had a goal chalked off for being offside.
Howell-6: Took a rather nasty knock on the ankle, but kept the pressure on late.
Baggett-6: Was fairly effective in helping control huge portions of the match.
Fischer-6: Found herself in some dangerous spots, but couldn't convert any of her chances.
Monaghan-6: Her scoring streak was stopped, but she played a decent match.
Davis-6: Needs to develop a more lethal finishing touch.
Goins-5: Not as effective as she was in the last match.
Houston v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
It's hot. It will be hot in Houston, too. It's probably the first match that Louisville has played in this season where I actually believe that fatigue could be a factor. On the other hand, I played 90 plus the other night and I'm in much worse shape, so maybe let's chill with the fatigue excuse for Björkegren's substitution patterns. I am one of the lone voices that thinks that Björkegren's substitution patterns have been fine this season. Björkegren did hint that the temp would be on his mind on Saturday, but that man is an icicle. Has anyone ever seen him in anything other than long sleeves? Today he sauntered into the press conference in his normal track suit. I was outside for about 15 minutes and was getting very sweaty.
Both Pickett and Howell were wearing much more temperature appropriate gear and talked about the upcoming match. Both said that the team is aware of what's on the line in Houston, but will try to take the match as it comes. Pickett quite possibly has been Louisville's most underrated player this season. She came to Louisville with a stellar attacking reputation, but has helped solidify the back line by being (virtually) ever present. Howell has been key in the last few matches with DeMelo and Borges absent. If you care about such things (I personally don't but understand why players and fans do), you might wonder if Jae should be on the USWNT too. Louisville is much better off by not completely losing its midfield for this international competition. If all three players are still with Louisville the next time a big mid-season international competition rolls around I think they probably lose all three.
As for Houston, they have been playing terribly, but you never know when a team is going to break out of a slump. They are all but eliminated from this competition, but with no other competitions on the immediate horizon it's hard to picture much rotation. Houston obviously has dangerous attackers available, but they have not been scoring enough goals as a team. Louisville on the other hand has continued to find goals all over the pitch. Monaghan has been really good recently. It will be interesting to see if she resumes her regular role as a sub if she continues to score consistently. Nadim's minutes probably increase again, but I'm unsure if that means a start for her. Bloomer and Beall are both still recovering, so I'm sure Lund will go again. I expect Pokorny off the bench again as Björkegren does like to stick to his substitution patterns.
Louisville 2 Chicago 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Jordan Prather
I think Louisville would sign up to play Chicago every week because they certainly seem to have their number this year. Louisville showed their depth on the night and as the roster returns to full strength it will make selection interesting for the last few matches of the league season.
I don't want to dwell too much on the details of the goals because I think there are more interesting items from the match, but Baggett's outside foot finish was delightful and Monaghan's finish on her goal was lethal. There were other opportunities too, but both goals were well taken.
I really thought that Parker Goins helped Louisville keep its attacking speed up early. Usually when she plays she is a like-for-like replacement for her good friend Davis. I thought she brought something different on the wing compared to Wang. I asked Coach Björkegren about the differences between the two players after the match and he basically said they couldn't be more different. This is a good thing. I think the best use of a sub is to change the pace of the match. Goins played early balls in attack that created real danger. Wang is the more technically gifted player for sure, but Louisville is very soon going to be able to really throw opponents off with their substitutes if they play it right.
The only nitpicking, troubling item on the night was that several times Chicago split through Louisville's defense with a single pass. This pass was usually central and basic “Route One football”. If Mal Swanson had been on the end of those passes the scoreline might have looked much different. It's something to keep an eye on when Louisville plays a team with a more dangerous central striker.
The defensive unit was once again tremendously effective with Chicago never really posing a serious threat. It does seem like it takes them a few minutes to get into rhythm sometimes and Chicago had a half chance early. Milliet was flying all over the pitch, but called into defense more than attack. Conversely, Pickett had a tremendous attacking night finding herself forward on several occasions. Erceg is such a pro that it doesn't seem to matter who her center back partner is on the day. Lester never looked troubled and Lund didn't really have to do more than make routine saves. It seemed to me that Lund kept her concentration up and I thought she put in a good performance even though it was routine. I can't remember her putting a foot wrong other than over hitting one pass late in the match that was of no real consequence.
The Challenge Cup math is almost certainly on Louisville's side now. The chances of them hosting a midweek semifinal in September look increasingly likely. This would obviously be their first true knockout match. I’m getting my hopes up because the atmosphere For knockout matches are just different.
Louisville 2 Chicago 0 Player Ratings
Louisville used two first half goals to handle Chicago once again. The win puts Louisville in prime position for a semifinal appearance in the Challenge Cup.
Lund-7: Once again she waa.not called on to do much, but was better in distribution and time wasted effectively.
Pickett-8: Really lively on the night especially in attack.
Erceg-7: Solid once again, but had one or two nervy touches early.
Lester-7: Calm and collected and rarely called into action.
Milliet-7: Took over DeMelo's role as being the most frequently fouled player.
Howell-7: Picked up an early yellow but managed it well and shut down a bunch of counters in the second half.
Baggett-8: Had a really cheeky touch on the goal and was really good in possession too.
Fischer-7: Looks to be a solid backup for DeMelo.
Monaghan-9: Clearly her best match in a Louisville uniform. She told the media that she will be thinking more about the goals she missed, but buried her best chance.
Davis-8: Was an absolute nuisance in the first half, but couldn't finish off any of her opportunities in the second half.
Goins-7: It was interesting to contrast what she brings in comparison to Wang. Louisville seemed to play quicker with her on the pitch.
Louisville v Chicago Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville looks to return to action against Chicago on Friday night at 7pm. After a week off, the team will look to continue its momentum in the Challenge Cup and keep its perfect record going. Louisville has a season-high of 8 players listed as out (6 for international duty), so they will have to pull from there depth to get a result on Friday.
In addition to the six players at the World Cup, Louisville also has Holloway, Ekic, and Pikkujämsä returning from international duty. This match more than any other will be a test of Louisville's bench strength. Luckily for Louisville, they could get potentially 20 minutes from Nadia Nadim if her pattern follows a similar pattern to Kgatlana’s return. In addition, Louisville will benefit from only having to make one forced change in Wang Shuang. Chicago is starting to play better and doesn’t have many international absences. It would be virtually impossible for them to play worse than they did in Louisville’s 3-0 victory at Lynn Family Stadium earlier this year. I expect Chicago to put up more of a fight this time around.
One of the difficult things to do in my opinion is to beat an opponent multiple times in a season, especially in a league where the margins are so fine. Jae Howell commented on Thursday, that the difficulty comes down to mentality more than anything else. It is a fine line between confidence and overconfidence. Even when playing well, Louisville has been prone to slow starts. They have shown resiliency to be able to overcome them, but Chicago pretty much capitulated after going down 2 in Louisville. I think the plan will be to try to attack Chicago early and shake their confidence.
With a win, Louisville can set itself up pretty favorably for the next couple of matches. It’s not impossible, but it would be difficult to see any other team that doesn’t win its group hitting 12 points. I will go ahead and say that a win on Friday all but guarantees Louisville a place in the semifinals. Therefore, it will be key to go out and attack in the this match. Louisville’s last two Challege Cup matches will be on the road and there will be very little rotation in the squads now that there are no double game match weeks in the schedule for a while. Louisville can expect the full force of Kansas City’s and Houston’s available squads in the two road matches, so it would be best to take care of business at home on Friday night.
Louisville 2 Kansas City 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Louisville overcame some unfortunate things that didn’t go their way to earn all 3 points at home against Kansas City. The Current came in on a mini win streak but didn’t really look any better than the team that Louisville had beaten fairly easily twice already this season. Louisville’s players looked comfortable and composed all match and didn’t panic when they fell behind early. There was a confidence to the performance that you wish they could carry over to use against more teams where prior history isn’t on their side.
After the match Björkegren was asked about how the team handled going behind early. In his remarks he shared that he told the team that this was a “must win” match. I agree with that, but sometimes that can make you play a little nervy. Coach Kim also shared that he wasn’t pleased at all with the first 10 minutes of the match. If Louisville had any nerves during the match, it showed here. The usually calm Erceg hastily cleared the ball and caused Jae to defend herself with her arm for the penalty. It looked to me like she had a bit more time to clear it. Fischer struggled a little in defense early too, with Björkegren bellowing her name while on defense at least once. Once the penalty was converted, it was one-way traffic for virtually the rest of the match.
On overturned goal, I thought the goal was ruled out due to a handball. At one point, I heard there was a foul called. On the replay I could see that Pikkujämsä might have impeded Franch, but that was almost undetectable in real time. Louisville’s official recap stated that the goal was ruled offside which is also completely plausible. Whichever way it wasn’t a goal, it was ruled not a goal on the field. I think everyone can live with that, but I can tell you what didn’t happen. The touchline official didn’t raise his flag, and least not immediately after the action. It looks like the officials were in constant communication with each other and they probably got the call right. My complaint is that for the second time in two matches, the officials haven’t used the generally recognized signals to let the fans know what is happening. When the linesman raises his flag for a foul or an offside, I tend to catch it as do the more knowledgeable fans. Nobody in the stadium seemed to know what was going with the call. First and foremost the officials should get the call right. However, I believe that they also have a duty to the fans to at least let us know what is going on even if we don’t agree with it. It wasn’t as bizarre as the alleged one-handed signally of advantage during the Reign match, but it did impact the fan experience.
The rest of the match was fairly smooth sailing for Louisville as they had loads of chances and were able to convert on 2 of their 26 shots. Monaghan’s goal was a strike worthy of winning any match. Pikkujämsä’s goal was what happens when you are in the right place at the right time. Fischer and Wang both had 6 shots with Fischer having the best of those chances. On the defensive side, Louisville once again played “keep away” and the Current didn’t have that many meaningful touches in Louisville’s half after Monaghan’s goal.
I doubt that we will hear many complaints about the substitutions in this match, but Björkegren stuck to his substitution pattern of Goins on for Davis around the 60th minute, then leaving the rest up to what he sees in real time. Kansas City put on plenty of “fresh legs” but they didn’t change the match in my eyes. I maintain it matters who you sub on and off and not just that you make a bunch of substitutions. Obviously, hindsight is the best way to evaluate substitutions, but I don’t think Coach Kim will listen to the noise about how he substitutes.
The midfield of Howell, Baggett, and Fischer had a much better second outing and were able to control the midfield for large portions of the match. Howell did a terrific job of monitoring play from the back and keeping the Current midfield on their back foot. Baggett had a really good box-to-box match and Fischer was involved in the attack all night. Madalyn Pokorny made her debut coming on for Fischer and put in an impressive 8 minutes.
Louisville will have a week off now, so I will take one too. The caveat is that with the transfer window open if news breaks, I might have something to say about the arrivals or departures.
Louisville 2 Kansas City 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville thoroughly dominated and even a single goal flattered the Current. It was an important win and hopefully the start of a winning run.
Lund-6: Not really called into action at all other than the penalty.
Pickett-7: Typical good attacking/defending performance.
Erceg-7: Unlucky twice, but good otherwise.
Pikkujämsä-8: Really good defensively and took her goal well.
Milliet-7: See Pickett. Now has to be considered of equal quality to her.
Howell-8: Excellent in helping keep the Current pinned in during the second half.
Baggett-7: Filling in well for Borges.
Fischer-7: Looked a little out of place defensively at times but was solid going forward.
Monaghan-8: Scored a textbook counterattacking goal.
Davis-7: Starting to understand the hold up side of the game more and more.
Wang-7: Had a few opportunities, but ultimately couldn't convert.
Louisville v Kansas City Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
Louisville goes for 3 wins in 3 attempts on Friday versus Kansas City. You never want to discount points already taken and I maintain that a long cup run is Louisville's best chance at success this season, but this match seems like the biggest of the 3 so far. The table is tightening up and no match is mathematically a must win yet, but it's hard to see a path to a playoff spot for Louisville without a win on Friday. I expect the starting XI to remain unchanged (note: I was not at practice so this is speculation).
If Louisville are to get 3 points on Friday, they will have to put in a more connected performance than the team did on Saturday in Seattle. I chalk both of Louisville's goals up to good fortune, and I don't think you can count on another penalty or dreadful goalkeeping like Saturday. Personally, I would like to see what Goins can do from the start. I think that I will probably have to wait for the next 3 Challenge Cup matches to see that though.
Kansas City has strung together some good results and in the NWSL it seems like at least one team makes a pretty good late run for the playoffs, usually after underperforming when compared to expectations (see the Courage last season). The Current fit the bill this season as their expectations seemed to be sky high. They have also been feast or famine in the league somehow managing zero draws. Louisville is the queen of drawing so this will be the case of an erratic force vs. an object that is just as likely to move vs. not move. I like the original saying much better.
Something tells me that this battle might come down to the goalkeepers which is something I never say and frankly never want. Franch was bad enough this season to lose her job to Miller, but Louisville put 2 past her in Kansas. Both of those were one-on-one losses for Miller, so she will be looking to atone. I have been openly critical of Lund's performances recently. You can point to statistics and make a really good case that she has been excellent. However, I am suspicious of quite a few statistics when it comes to soccer, and I would triple down on goalkeeping statistics. Because the defense has played so much better and Louisville does a better job of keeping their own goal out of constant danger, Katie isn't called on as much as usual. In my opinion (and as always possibly only mine) the best attribute a keeper can have is the ability to go from 0 to 60. In essence, when you have had nothing to do, can you be ready when you are immediately called upon? Lund's shot-stopping ability is top notch. To me her biggest areas of improvement remain ball handling and concentration. Too many times she punches when she should catch and recently she has turned some routine touches into an unnecessary adventure. When you're constantly called upon, I have to believe that you get a better feel for the ball. Sometimes she genuinely seems to be taken off guard when the defensive in front of her let’s a shot through. It's a testament to how much more calm and disciplined the back 4 have beee recently, but there have many keepers that look fantastic on bad teams simply because they have to be (Betos, year one in Louisville). I think it's time for Lund to step up and show that she is a keeper prepared to make the next step. She has all of the tangible attributes, but to move to greatness and to get shot at a call up to the USWNT she will have to work on this next phase of her game.
Reign 2 Louisville 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Somehow, almost in spite of themselves, Louisville wakes up on Sunday morning in better shape in the league table than they did when they started the day on Saturday. It isn’t much better and they now have Orlando breathing down their necks. They are also closer to 12th place than 6th. Feel free to insert you cliche here, but this season especially feels like no team is yet out of the playoff hunt. Louisville played neither particularly well nor particularly poorly on Saturday in Seattle. Both goals for Louisville were gifts and the goals they conceded were on a terrific header and one of the goofiest ones you will ever see. They somehow won the possession battle while never looking completely comfortable with the ball.
If you ever wanted a simple explanation of why I tend to ignore xG as a single data point in matches, I present to you that Elyse Bennett’s goal had an xG of .19 and Bethany Balcer’s had .15. I am sure that the main numerical difference in these numbers is due to the distance, but surely LOOKING TOWARDS THE GOAL, increases your chances of scoring. I doubt it happens enough to warrant a change in the model, and in the aggregate over time those things even out. However, as single data points I have to believe that Balcer finishes her chance more often than Bennett. As in all cases, maybe I am wrong and Bennett’s chance really was the better of the two, so I won’t belabor the point. I just found in amusing.
Giving up two late goals isn’t the recipe for success, but I can’t point to anything that Louisville should have done differently tactically. We know that front-footed pressure is what works for them, but that is more difficult to do to a good opponent especially on the road. I could go back and rewatch the last 10 minutes or so, but why would I do that to myself. I have millions of other things I would rather do.
Quick hits on individual players:
Milliet struggled for the first time in a while at right back. It wasn’t a terrible performance, but King got the better of her in my opinion. I think she will recover pretty quickly to start to play back up to her recent form.
I have seen enough of Davis to say that she isn’t ready to lead the line. She may have to until Nadim is healthy or Louisville brings in another striker. I can’t remember the last time I was so mad at a player as when Pickett was making a long forward run with Davis in front of her. That run was probably at least 20 to 30 yards. Davis wasn’t onside for any of it. Strikers must learn to be onside above all else. It was incredibly frustrating to watch. She did put in a good ball into the box towards Baggett I believe, but that was really to only noteworthy positive thing she did.
We got to see “Good Wang” for this match. “Bad Wang” shows up too many times for my taste, but she was good yesterday.
Lund hasn’t been very sharp recently. I don’t know if she could have stopped either of the goals, but she didn’t look that assured on the ones that she did. It looks to me like it’s maybe a confidence issue, but what do I know?
Reign 2 Louisville 2 Player Ratings
It was a very odd game with a very lucky equalizer for the Reign, and Louisville once again let a 2 goal lead slip away.
Lund-6: Stagnant on both goals, but nothing much she could have done differently.
Pickett-7: Good going forward, but maybe could have done a little better on the first goal.
Erceg-7: Another solid performance.
Pikkujämsä-7: It was a mixed bag for Elli but a crucial interception near the end bumps her up a point.
Milliet-7: King really caused her trouble but got an assist on the Monaghan goal.
Howell-6: Not as involved as much as she usually is.
Baggett-7: Good on both sides of the ball.
Fischer-7: Had 2 pretty decent opportunities to score, which was encouraging.
Monaghan-8: Calmly finished her chance for Louisville's second.
Davis-6: Needs to step up her game if she is going to keep her starting spot.
Wang-8: Took her penalty well and had a good match overall.
Bonus Rating- Alex Billeter-0: One of the worst game management performances I have ever seen in this league and that is saying something.
Reign v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I like to pull photos from the previous year’s fixture to use in my pre match thoughts blog posts. It’s pretty startling to see the Starting XI the last time Louisville traveled to the northwest to face the Reign. Kizer and Salmon were both on that team and Kizer started. Louisville only has 5 players available to start from that lineup and only 3 likely will.
I will spare you my previously well documented thoughts on international football, but in my opinion another step towards equality in women’s sports will be achieved when clubs and their players have enough combined influence and power to mitigate the necessity of having a league match played when players are committed to international duty. Nobody else wants my easy solution, but perhaps a Dec/Jan World Cup in Australia/New Zealand wouldn’t have been a terrible idea although the A-League fans would surely disagree. There is no good compromise…
Anyhoo, Louisville now finds itself in little-margin-for-error territory with no-margin-for-error territory quickly on its tail. If ever there was a chance to steal 3 points in Seattle, this could be it. The Reign is missing significant star power, but still have enough to be considered the favorite heading into this match. Most of Louisville’s goal scoring prowess will be absent for this matchup so they will need to find a way to manufacture a goal. I have previously commented on their recent inability to get a well-constructed goal, and you have to think that it will have to come from transition or a set piece. Louisville will need to rely on its defensive stability and thankfully for them the back 4 plus Howell should be available. If Louisville has an advantage over some of the other teams during this international window it is that its back 4 should remain steady and unchanged.
Where will the goals come from? If ever Davis is going to take the next step, could it be now please? Ekic is healthy and I for one would be willing to live with her defensive inconsistency because she wouldn’t have to be as good as a wing defender with Louisville’s improved sturdiness on defense. Goins will surely start at some point, but I don’t think it is tomorrow. Louisville could decide to move Pikkujämsä up and play Lester at center back and move Howell forward in the midfield. Coach Björkegren’s season will surely be evaluated to some extent by how he manages these next few weeks.
North Carolina 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I have some kind of self-imposed duty to write my thoughts about every match, but if I've ever been tempted to skip a match, this one gave me the strongest urge. The main reason behind this is that both matches against North Carolina this year have just been “one of the games”. Louisville didn't play particularly poorly or well, so that usually means that you leave the outcome to chance.
I believe that both teams yesterday would have been fairly satisfied with the tactical execution during the match. Louisville looked comfortable ceding possession for large sections of the match and the Courage were pretty content with the lion's share of it. I thought Louisville defended well for the most part, with only the scrappy goal from Lussi finding its way in. Erceg was my player of the match, due mostly to her preventing a second gaol late in the match, even though she was very good throughout. Another thing that I noticed was that Milliet looked particularly quick getting to the hall on defense. In addition, Pikkujämsä had the chance to show off her pace too making a late recovery to stop a chance for North Carolina. Even though Louisville's goal prevention streak is over, the defense looked as solid as it has been over the last few weeks.
Once again, Louisville doesn't look like it can break down a defense with clinical precision, so that means that the goals will need to come from set pieces, defensive mistakes by their opponents, a scrappy goal like the Courage were able to get, quick counters, or defensive splitting passes. Louisville's best chance came late on one of those defensive splitting passes from Milliet to Goins. Parker came tantalizingly close to finding the equalizer and scoring from the bench again, but her effort was just wide.
Breaking down an opponent requires the quick/fast conundrum. You should always play quickly but never rushed. Louisville seemed like its attack lacked that little bit of urgency and composure. Patience and quickness may seem like distant cousins at first glance, but it's basically how predators get their prey. Maybe it's better said that it's decisiveness and precision are the key to breaking down the opposition. Simply said in footballing terms, the passes need to be quicker, more accurate, and more purposeful. Louisville seems to be caught to some degree in a reliance on Kgatlana to lead the attack and DeMelo to get the goals. Both of those players will soon be gone for a while, so Louisville will get plenty of opportunity to see if they can figure out a different way to win.
Björkegren decided to do a full swap of his forwards all of once. Kgatlana was getting very close to committing a second yellow, and I thought he pulled her just in time. I don't know if I am a fan of the 3 subs at once approach, but I will say that the attack didn't really get better or worse. I think mixing up the forwards some more may be warranted. I would like to see Goins in with Kgatlana again. Wang simply isn't consistent enough up front and I have been saying for a while that she needs to drop into the number 10 role. Björkegren will have to experiment some in the coming weeks.
North Carolina 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
Louisville saw its long streak of not allowing their opponents to score broken late in the match and ultimately that was the difference. North Carolina exploited Louisville's continued lack of consistent finishing and now Louisville has failed to score in 2 out of its last 3 league matches.
Lund-6: Not to blame on the goal and not required to do much otherwise.
Pickett-7: Typical solid performance.
Erceg-8: Saved a late chance by getting in a crucial touch near goal.
Pikkujämsä-7: Made some good recoveries and seems to be taking over for Lester at least temporarily at center back.
Milliet-7: Not quite as good as she had been recently, but still effective. Created a great late chance for Goins.
Howell-6: Didn't really have a bad game, but with the possession so one-sided the midfield gets a bit of a downgrade in this match.
Borges-6. Pretry much the same as Howell, but did get taken off the ball easily a few times.
DeMelo-6: Not poor, but not nearly up to her recent high standards.
Kgatlana-6: Björkegren smartly pulled her because she was about one more bad touch from a second yellow.
Davis-6: Not really involved much (legally) with an offside header being her most memorable contribution.
Wang-5: Virtually invisible for too much of the match.
North Carolina v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Anne Evans
It’s been a while since I have reported on my tracking of how teams that score first are performing this season, so let’s do that first. I see this as more of a macro level measures, so I combine performance in the league and cup into one chart. You could easily separate the two, but I think the combined chart shows Louisville upward trajectory more clearly so I went with the combined one. Here it is:
Note that Louisville is comfortably above average in both metrics, winning points when scoring first and salvaging points when not. Their numbers are greatly assisted by their performances in the Challenge Cup but it is a part of the story of the season so far, so I think it matters. The most interesting data point on the chart by a long shot is the Washington Spirit, which basically says they are never comfortable with a lead nor out of a match.
With that update out of the way, I will turn my attention to North Carolina on Saturday. Louisville still has its full roster at its disposal except for Alex Chidiac (and the long-term absentees) who has already left to join the Australian National Team. To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, I am once again asking for your support in treating the North Carolina team as a beatable opponent and not some unconquerable monster. I was a little disheartened to hear Bekki Morgan on the most recent episode of BTRD say that a 2-1 loss wouldn’t be a disappointment (or something of similar sentiment as I am too lazy to fact check what she actually said). Bekki and I tend to agree more than we disagree, but perhaps our biggest difference in opinion lies in how we see Louisville’s performance against the teams where they have had no success. I don’t see Portland or North Carolina as unbeatable and no result other than a win should be taken with anything other than disappointment. It wouldn’t be season-ending or even day-ruining disappointment, but I am afraid that a draw would be over celebrated, and a close loss written off all too easily. Of course, absolutely none of this matters to the players who are never happy with anything other than all three points, so any amount of fan-initiated handwringing is moot anyway.
Louisville could be slightly buoyed by their first half performance at home vs. the Courage, where they dictated the match but couldn’t break through. On the other hand, the Courage have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently, winning 4 out of 5 matches in the league and cup which incidentally started with a win in Louisville. Maybe Erceg and Pickett will take a little something extra back to North Carolina, but ultimately this match will come down to who can finish off their chances better. Louisville averages a shot on target more than the Courage, so maybe they can find a way to make the math pay off for them in this match. A win for Louisville would put them in a playoff position this late in the season for the first time ever, at least until Sunday when Gotham and Houston would need to get a draw and a win respectively to keep up.
Louisville 2 Gotham 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
Louisville continued its run of impressive play on Sunday afternoon at home vs. Gotham. The win allowed them to jump up a spot on the table, and to close the gap to 6th place to 3 points with a superior goal difference compared to the two teams directly above them. The next two macthes are on the road versus two teams currently in playoff position in the North Carolina Courage and the OL Reign. It will be key to tranlate the form facilitated by the comforts of home to making those opponents as uncomfortable as possible.
Louisville has conceded only one goal in the last 5 macthes across all competitions. This defensive performance, while definitely helped by Louisville's press wasn't completely reliant on it, which is a good sign. Gotham ended up with close to 60% of the possession by the end of the match, but it was virtually even at half and tilted in Louisville's favor prior to the first goal. Gotham is a much better attacking team than Louisville's previous opponent Houston, and while Louisville wasn't able to keep Gotham pinned in, the team was able to defend well in front of goal. Gotham's best chance came when a free header hit the post and O'Hara probably should have scored. Other than that, none of Gotham’s attacks should have troubled Lund. However, Lund didn't have the best handle on the ball in the first half and made a couple of chances more dangerous than they should have been. Ultimately it didn't matter because with a 2 goal lead Louisville was able to sit back smartly and the match was never in doubt after Kgatlana's early second half goal.
Kgatlana is clearly going to be the fastest player on the pitch the overwhelming majority of the time that she's on it. She had 4 shots in the match and it would be pretty easy picturing any of them going in. It's still too small of a sample size to put too much stock in, but you have to feel like that she could have 2 or 3 goals by now. On one hand the xG model from American Soccer Analysis says she's probably right where she needs to be with 1 goal on 1.13 xG. On the other hand, she's only put 2 of 12 shots on target. If she can put more of her shots on goal, she could become even scarier for opponents than she already is.
DeMelo has all but officially played her way into a spot on the US's World Cup roster. I'll miss watching her for the weeks she's gone. Right now the ball just seems to find her in dangerous positions. Kgatlana talked at length about the depth of the squad during her post match press conference, and I feel better about DeMelo's absence than I would have felt a month ago. I would feel infinitely better if Nadim was back in time to replace her scoring. That remains to be seen, but Ekic, Goins, and Fischer seem like they have goals in them. Monaghan and Davis can score too, but you would have liked to see a little more consistency given the minutes they've logged.
I now believe that the three players that have become irreplaceable are Pickett, Erceg and Milliet. Unless something truly unexpected happens, all 3 will be with Louisville during the World Cup. The season flashed before my eyes when Erceg went down late. I’ve already seen one dream evaporate this year with an irreplaceable CB going down injured (IYKYK) and don't think my heart could take another.
Things are starting to click into place for Coach Björkegren and the club may ultimately benefit from the patience it has shown with him. While he never looks to up or too down, you could tell that he was worried after the loss to Orlando. Since then he has seemed to be more comfortable in his status at the club. Regardless of how hot the hot seat really was, it has cooled tremendously. I always thought he was getting his message across to his players, so it's good to see that the players have stepped up their performance, but more importantly their focus and intensity in order to start to translate their talent and skills into results. I think how he manages the World Cup matches will ultimately define the season, so look for him to really push for results while some of his key players are gone. The Challenge Cup group could be locked up early, but Louisville will want a home semifinal so I think they will continue to try to win every match in that competition.
Louisville 2 Gotham 0 Player Ratings
Neely chucked a piece of ice at DeMelo during the press conference…you know, like good friends do 😀
Louisville put in another good performance, this time in front of a nationally televised audience. If Louisville continues these types of performances, they will find themselves in playoff contention sooner vs. later.
Lund-6: Dangerously nervy in the first half, but solid in the second. She may need to find a way to conjure up the type of performances she did last year, but on the other hand maybe not if the defense continues to play well. Either way, has to be better at catching shots directed right at her.
Pickett-7: Picked up a sneaky clever yellow and managed it well after that.
Erceg-8: Scared the soul out of every Louisville fan when she went down late, but seemed to be okay after the match.
Pikkujämsä-8: Her physicality kept many Gotham attacks at bay. It was good to see her put in a full 90 because 90s will be needed from her as the season wears on.
Milliet-8: After the match, DeMelo referred to her as the smartest soccer player she has ever played with. I can't remember if the NWSL has a most improved player type award, but she would be high on that list if they do. She is so much more comfortable and looks like she has been playing right back for years.
Howell-7: Will be disappointed that she missed a sitter for the chance to go up 3-0.
Borges-7: Will be missed incredibly when she goes off to the World Cup. She is starting to impress more on the defensive end.
DeMelo-8: What can you say? She had a ball magnet in her foot, so she just finds all kinds of different ways to score.
Kgatlana-8: Will hopefully keep finding the types of opportunities she had in this match. I consider her a volume type of scorer in that the math simply dictates that with as many opportunities she gets, at least one will go in. If she can figure out how to be more clinical, she could be unstoppable.
Davis-7: Wasn't as involved as the other forwards, but did complete all 6 passes. I don't know if she caught Lynn Williams brilliant bit of hold up play to create a secondary break for Gotham in the first half, but that's the next stage in her development.
Wang-7: She had another professional display and had the shot that created DeMelo's goal.