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Courage v Racing Preview
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
It's hard to know when to resume “regular” or “normal” activity after the news of last Thursday. I hate to even consider what “normal” is in this league given the continuous parade of stories reporting heinous and despicable behavior. This league needs transformation not normalcy. However, unless you want to “burn the thing down” (which I don’t think is an unreasonable idea) the NWSL is going to try to press on while attempting to fix its many problems. I decided since there is going to be a return to game action on Wednesday that I would resume my usual cadence of posting a match preview the day before the match.
First off, the women on these teams are professionals and will do their jobs, which should solely be the game of soccer by the way. On the other hand, they are human and completely within their rights to have their minds on other things. I believe we will see focused performances on the field from both teams, even if part of that focus is just to escape the outside pressures of the current environment for 90 minutes.
On the Racing side, here is the depressing injury report:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT/SEI)
F NADIA NADIM (OUT/SEI)
D GEMMA BONNER (OUT)
F CECE KIZER (QUESTIONABLE)
Not having Bonner usually means a greater struggle on the defensive side.
As for the Courage, they will be under the guidance of Sean Nahas as their interim coach. The Courage will have to adjust to a new coach, but if that is the most difficult thing the women on the team have to deal with this week, I’m pretty sure they will count in as a win.
No prediction for a scoreline, but I predict a good effort from both clubs.
Racing v Gotham (Postponed) Player Ratings
There obviously wasn't a match last night but every player who has ever played a minute in this league gets a rating of 10 out of 10 from me today. We are behind you 100%.
Racing v Gotham preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
Sometimes you just want to write a match preview and the dumpster fire that is the NWSL just won't stop burning. Oh well, I am going to set said dumpster fire to the side, knowing that it will continue to burn into the foreseeable future and write about the match-up between Racing and Gotham tomorrow.
What is happening indeed?
Racing has a clean injury report for once, with only the known season ending injuries to Nadim and Merrick listed. I hope that means we see either Bonner or Riehl or both return to the starting XI. I think I have changed my mind a bit about how much talent evaluation I believe the team should do in the last 5 matches. I think wholesale changes make the team hard to evaluate. I would like to see Lund get a start with Bonner and Riehl. We already saw what a backline of Hendrix and Martin combined with Betos looks like, so it would maybe be nice to also see a Hendrix Riehl and Betos setup one more time, but honestly there is game film on that lineup from earlier in the season. I also think we've seen enough of the forwards to know the strengths there. The one other thing that I would like to see is Fox in the midfield, with maybe Ashley and Martin in as the right and left back. Either way, I expect the strongest possible starting XI against Gotham.
I spoke with Gary Gibson from the Soccer Over Gotham podcast earlier this week, so I am going to let him do the heavy lifting on the Gotham side:
Gotham has gone through a lot over the past month or so. They lost 3 starters to injury (Freeman, Purce, Monaghan) and had a coach pulling double duty and experimenting with formation changes on her way out. Our new coach Scott Parkinson did what our previous coach didn’t, which was put our players in positions to succeed with a 4-3-3 formation and playing aggressively. We already know how stout this defence is. It's time to take the restrictor plate off the offense. Midge Purce is the player that makes everything go offensively. She can burn defenders, demand attention, draw penalties and most importantly hold the ball up and allow other players to get forward into the attack.
I also asked about Gotham's position for a move up into a playoff spot:
Gotham is in a great position to make the playoffs. They are currently sitting right below the line with games in hand, 4 points away from 3rd place with a game in hand on NC (who they just beat and play again) and 2 games on hand on the 4th and 5th place team. With the return of starting attackers Midge Purce and Paige Monaghan who both scored in their return there is very little doubt that not only can Gotham make the playoffs but can make a run at the title.
While on the Soccer Over Gotham podcast I predicted a 2-0 victory for Gotham. I will stick with that prediction knowing full well that it pretty much guarantees that the scoreline will not be 2-0 Gotham.
September Fleur-de-lis-fc.com Player of the Month
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
There were 3 matches in September with Racing only winning a single point. That makes the player of the month a tough call. Since I have no really strong feelings about a player for this month, I will go with the winner of the Twitter poll, Emily Fox.
Emily has been good all season (although she did have a rare substandard performance against Houston). Her switch to right back from left back was a notable occurrence in September. Her flexibility has been a strength for the team, but I hope that next season finds her in a more permanent role.
In case you are wondering who my personal choice was, it was CeCe Kizer. CeCe had the top rated performance according to Fotmob in 2 of the 3 matches. I'm not quite sure why I didn't just award the Player of the Month Award to Ms. Kizer other than my general indifference to the performances in September. The lesson here is that next time I should probably just ignore the Twitter poll.
Racing 0 Dash 4 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Racing put in one of their worst performances in recent memory in the match Sunday afternoon vs. the Houston Dash. In case you were wondering, I am an idiot and should never be taken that seriously in any of my predictions or analysis. I predicted a victory in this match for Racing, and frankly once they went behind, they never looked like they were seriously in the match. To be fair I made my prediction prior to finding out that both Bonner and Riehl were listed as questionable on the injury report. In the end, Racing were doomed when the team sheet came out. It's hard to win in this league even with your two starting CBs completely healthy. Nothing against Hendrix and Martin, but they just haven't played together competitively in months, and it showed. Martin had a pretty bad touch that led to Houston's 2nd goal, but nobody bathed themselves in glory with their defensive efforts. Fox couldn't hang with Nichelle Prince at all in the first half. The 3rd goal was a comedy of errors and looked like a goal you might see in a youth match.
On the attacking side, Racing wasn't much better. Matthews looked dangerous early, but couldn't put a shot on target. In fact, nobody did. The passing accuracy was (not to go full British but…) bloody awful. The second half passing accuracy was a frankly embarrassing 59%. Racing had 46% possession, but precious little of it was in Houston's half.
This next sentence is going to sound self-contridictary, but it's what I think it sums up Racing's major problem. Racing plays too slowly from the back which causes poor decisions by rushing their passes. Playing out from the back can be a really effective way to control a match if you can do it effectively. Racing plays too slowly from restarts and allows the defense to push up on them before they make their next pass. When you play slowly from the back you invite pressure. When you play quickly but intentionally from the back you can slice through a defense effectively. In this match especially Racing seemed to dawdle until forced to make a pass, and then rushed into a tougher pass or a bad decision. If there is one thing that not being a gifted athlete will teach you, it's that you have to play the ball quickly. Sometimes younger athletes forget the cardinal rule of any sport: nobody is faster than the ball. When the ball moves quickly, you don't have to. More important than your attacking philosophy, the speed at which your team moves the ball will dictate your success. Go back and watch Racing's goals. They almost all result from quick team moves or the quick decision to press. Or maybe I'm an idiot, which as I stated earlier is entirely possible.
Regardless, surely now we can file away any talk of playoffs and begin to focus on next season. Based on what I saw today, I think I would be very cautious about how many changes to make in a single match, especially in defense. Salmon needs to build back her confidence, and if Racing wants her to lead the line next year she needs to start the remaining matches. Betos deserves a break, and seemed to take today's loss especially hard. I heard Fox did as well. The match on Friday will be an important test to see how Racing respond from this disappointing performance.
Racing 0 Dash 4 Player Ratings
It was was rather lackluster showing by Racing at Lynn Family Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The back four seemed unsettled the entire match and the attack couldn't seem to work the ball out of Racing's own half.
Betos-6: Had a good save, but struggled to pass the ball cleanly to any Racing players.
Fox-6: Nicholls Prince bullied her the entire match.
Martin-5/Hendrix-5: We now see the full value of the Bonner/Riehl partnership.
Simon-6: Of the defenders, had the best game.
Olofsson-5: Struggled to have much impact.
McCaskill-5: At fault for the first goal with a poor first touch.
Milliet-6: Tried hard in attack, but couldn't seem to get on the same page with the front two to make a lethal pass.
Matthews-6/Nagasato-6: Matthews has a few nice chances and Yuki looked sharp in her limited time on the pitch.
Kizer-7 (Player of the Match): I had to pick someone, and she seemed to be the most consistently positive attacking force.
Salmon-5/Baucom-5: Didn't really do much to threaten the Dash goal.
Quick Racing v Dash Preview
Courtesy EM Dash
Of course the last time Houston came to town, this happened…
That was a great moment. Will Ebony be on the bench again for a chance to repeat history?
With Nadia Nadim out for the remainder of the season, Racing will be looking to replace her attacking prowess. If I were selecting the line up against Houston on Saturday, this would be my formation:
Built using buildlineup.com
Obviously I’m not, so we will see if Baucom is preferred to Salmon again. On Soccer City Radio, Lance McGarvey talked about a playoff push. I guess this is still technically possible, but the odds are so low I would be willing to make easy money betting against it. That being said, it's a bit too early to put in a lineup of all younger players. I do think we will see a drastically changed lineup in at least a couple matches in October. If Racing were to take 3 points at home vs. Houston, and another 3 against Gotham at home then we could start to dream a bit about the playoffs.
Racing and the Dash are familiar opponents at this point. Racing has matched up well against Houston, so I give Louisville a shot at taking all 3 points at home. I have not seen any updated injury reports for this week, so I will tweet those out either today or tomorrow. As for a prediction, I will go with a 2-1 Racing victory, with Houston getting a late consolation goal.
Roster Performance and Analysis through 18 matches
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Neely Martin goes from an open tryout to being a probable returnee for next year's team.
With only 6 games remaining in the NWSL season and the playoffs almost surely out of reach, I wanted to start to think about how the team performed statistically this year and how they might set up for next year. I compared statistical performance across position groups. I believe that it would be foolish to wait until the season is over for the team to start to evaluate talent, so I have to believe these last 6 matches will serve as a chance to audition for any players that might not be locks to be on next year's team. With that in mind, for each player I will give a brief summary of any statistically relevant data, including any interesting statistical tidbits and a very preliminary evaluation of whether I believe the player will be on the 2022 roster.
Goalkeepers:
1-Betos: Michelle has played every minute of the league season. She is the only Racing player to do so. Even though Michelle leads the league in saves, she does not lead the league in saves per match. Kallen Sheridan leads of NJ/NY leads the league in saves per match with 5.3 to Michelle's 5.0. I don't want to live in a world where Michelle Betos isn't this team's captain next year.
21-Money and 22-Lund: When the season started I made flash cards for myself, so that I could learn the players by sight during matches. When Racing posted pictures from their outing at Churchill Downs, it took me a minute to remember who Shelby Money was. That's not a good sign for a player’s performance, but 3rd keeper is a tough role. Even though Katie Lund has played 0 minutes in the league so far, we are all aware of her contribution to the club. I hope she gets a start soon. I don't think Racing will draft a keeper or look for another one through open tryouts unless San Diego selects Katie through the expansion draft, which is not beyond the realm of possibility. Another bit of trivia…Katie was drafted 7 spots ahead of Michelle in the expansion draft, so the team may see her as the long term keeper.
Defenders (according to Racing's roster)
3-Simon: Erin has had a mixed bag in regards to performance this year. Her passing accuracy is lowest on the team (59%) for anyone with more than 300 minutes. She has found herself on the bench recently when she was a regular starter. My instinct is that she will continue to be a sub when used, and will get less minutes as the team finishes the season. From what I can tell she will no longer be under contract at the end of the season and I think she will be allowed to leave.
4-Bonner: Gemma rates above average for the team in the relevant categories (passing accuracy, clearances, interceptions) and is a leader on defense. She leads the team in clearances with 55 and accurate passes per minute (.49) for all players with more than 100 minutes. Gemma is under contract for 2022 and 2023, so she will be around for a while.
11-Fox: Emily leads all players who play in a “wide” or attacking positions with 78% passing accuracy. She is also Fotmob's top rated Racing Louisville player for the season with a 7.3 average rating per match. In addition she had more than double the amount of interceptions (40) than the next highest player. She should be a Racing player for as long as she wants to stay.
12-Miramontez: Ranks below average in most statistical categories. Holds the distinction of being the first and so far only Racing player to get a red card. Most likely will not be with the team next season.
14-Martin: Nealy ranks slightly above average in the relevant categories for defense. Her passing accuracy is tied for highest among defenders (81%). I think Nealy has proven reliable and will continue to get a look at left back. Her ability to play in both left sided defensive positions means that she should probably make the roster again next year.
15-Hendrix: If any player has gotten a raw deal based on statistical performance, it's been Brooke. She leads the team in both clearances per minute and interceptions per minute. However, she is on the lower side in passing accuracy for defenders (74%). I would like to see her get another shot in the lineup before the end of the season before passing full judgment on her chances of being on the team in 2022. I don't believe she is under contract, so that may lower her chances.
16-Ashley: Julia has only played 238 minutes due to injury and other factors. She was taken 2nd in the expansion draft, so she surely was going to be a larger part of the plans. I think she is under contract for next year.
18-Riehl: Kaleigh is above average in all of the relevant categories and is tied for the lead in passing accuracy among defenders. She has also played more minutes at CB than any other player. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year, but she is one to keep for sure.
26-Merrick: Addisyn has had the worst injury luck since joing Racing and has only played 57 minutes. However, in those 57 minutes she showed why Racing selected her number 1 in the expansion draft. She had 37 accurate passes in those minutes which is frankly astounding compared to the rest of the team. I believe her contract is up at the end of the year. Her health will unfortunately have a lot to do with the decision to keep her or not. If Racing decides not to keep her, she will surely catch on elsewhere.
Midfielders (according to Racing's roster)
2-Milliet: Lauren is nominally a midfielder, but “attacker” might be a better description. Honestly, the stats don't do her any favors. She is average to just below average in the relevant attacking stats (chances created, goals, assists and shots on target). Lauren is a personal favorite, but will probably be left unprotected in the expansion draft in hopes that she is selected. If not, I think it's a coin flip to see if she is back on the roster in 2022.
8-Olofsson: Freja is pretty much the only option at DM at this point, and has performed well statistically. She leads the team in passing accuracy at 84%. It's unclear if she is under contract for next year, but I think it's a safe bet that she will be on the roster in 2022.
19-Otto: Unfortunately, there isn't much to evaluate with Taylor other than a 45 minute outing in KC. She is under contract, but will probably be left unprotected. If she is not taken, she will be on the 2022 roster.
Forwards (according to Racing's roster)
5-Kizer: CeCe (along with Yuki) is one of the most accurate passers (77%) of the attacking players. She leads the “front 3” forwards in minutes, chances created and the entire team in shots on target. It's unclear is CeCe is under contract past this year, but the team will surely keep her.
7- McCaskill: Savannah leads all outfield players in minutes and chances created (31 which is 14 more than 2nd place Kizer). Her relatively low passing accuracy (69%) can be attributed to her desire to move the ball forward. She and CeCe are in the same situation via contract status. She is surely in no danger of leaving unless she pushes for it.
9-Salmon: Ebony leads the team in goals and goals per match. She has been coming on as a sub recently, but surely that is to protect her from overuse. She is under contract next year.
10-Nadim: Nadia leads the team in chances created per minute and shots on target per minute. The team will surely miss her in these last 6 matches. She is under contract for this year and next.
13-Ekic: Had one great game, and hasn't had the opportunity to do much else. Hopefully will get more minutes in these last 6 matches. Racing might be tempted to leave her unprotected in the draft. I think I would risk it. She is under contract for next year.
17-Nagasato: Leads the attackers in passing accuracy with 78%. Other than passing, she lags in the other attacking stats. Her contract status I unclear, and at 34 I would be tempted to leave her unprotected. If she is not selected by San Diego, she would definitely be welcomed back for 2022.
20-Matthews: Cheyna has a goal and an assist in her limited minutes. All of her attacking stats are at or above average. Her contract status is unclear, and probably is 50/50 on returning.
22-McClure: Katie hasn't done much statistically during her limited minutes. Little to no chance that she would be preferred to new options in attack.
27-Kara: Vanessa has not had much opportunity to show her skills, and will surely not be on the team next year.
33 Baucom: Based strictly on league performance, Jorian hasn't done much, but did score in the Challenge Cup and the Women's Cup. Even though she seems to be the preferred starter in Coach Sanchez's system, I don't think she will be on Racing's squad next year, but will surely catch on elsewhere.
Here's who I think will make at least the preliminary 2022 roster:
GK (3) Betos, Lund, Money
D (6) Bonner, Ashley, Riehl, Merrick, Martin, Fox
M (2) Olofsson, Otto
F (6) Nagasato, McCaskill, Nadim, Kizer, Salmon, Ekic
That is 17 players. The top 4 draft picks in next year's draft are probably locks to make the team, bringing the roster to 21. The current roster sits at 25. The NWSL max on the roster is supposed to be 24 with 4 supplemental players. I don't know this for sure, but I assume that Shelby Money is on the supplemental roster.
Here are the players that might be at risk to be unprotected and taken by San Diego:
Lund, Merrick, Ashley, Riehl, Milliet, Nagasato, Ekic
Pride 3 Racing 1 Player Ratings and Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
You have to score when you're in the ascendancy. That's the big lesson here. Prior to the two Pride goals in quick succession Racing had the bests chances. Racing fought back to get a second half goal, but conceded again to end up on the wrong side of a 3-1 loss.
Player Ratings
Betos-6: Her initial save on the build up to Leroux's goal was great and exactly what she had been practicing on Thursday when I was there. The actual goals were not her fault.
Fox-8: Racing's consistently best player was great again, almost scoring in the first half.
Riehl-7: Looking back, it's hard to understand why she ever was on the bench. Her play has gotten better and better since she rejoined the starting lineup. It could be argued that she has been the best CB option this season.
Bonner-6: A fairly average performance in a string of average performances.
Martin-5: Should have done better on Marta's goal. It's unclear to me why she is preferred at left back at the moment.
Olofsson-6: A little drop in quality from her last match.
McCaskill-7: Did standard McCaskill things and her corners are getting better.
Millet-7: Played the full 90, and had a decent match.
Kizer-8 (Player of the Match): It has to be said that CeCe seems to have a pretty good instict about how to place the ball on her shots. On the goal she opened up her posture to receive the ball and had the option to go left of right of the keeper. It was fabulous positioning.
Nagasato-7: Yuki had a good game as the replacement for Nadia. Her pass to Kizer on the goal was great.
Baucom-6: Had a decent effort that was wide of goal.
Other Thoughts
Nadim most likely has a torn ACL and if that is true, then her season is over. It's tough to know how much contact there was or how much it led to the injury. I didn't see anything egregious in the contact and there wasn't a card issued. I didn't think there was any ill intent in the challenge.
The officiating in this league is flat out terrible sometimes. Worse than that, it's horribly inconsistent and keeps being terrible in new and confusing ways. There was a missed offside call, which happens. The most puzzling thing was the 3 added minutes of extra time in the first half. Nadim was down for at least 3 and a half minutes. In most every other league in the world, officials add time for each goal scored. Most fans would have assumed at least 5 minutes of stoppage time was needed. I think most officials would have added that much. The other frustrating thing is that the officials are inconsistent about when to let play go on and when to stop it. I am fine with letting play go on and not calling every foul, in fact I prefer that advantages are given. However, sometimes the officials just seem to not call fouls when a team simply retains possession. These should be called consistently.
I don’t think either coach has gotten the starting XI right. This unchanged lineup looked less cohesive in its second time out. I still think the roster is too unbalanced. Racing is likely to have 2 of the top 4 draft picks in the college draft. They have to use those picks to transform the team into a group of players that wants to play how the head coach wants to play. If this team is going to insist on pressing, then the top two picks better be equipped to do that or provide cover for it.
The team and players can insist that they are still in the playoff hunt, but any reasonable person has surely given up on that by this point. With Nadia likely out for the rest of the season, Racing surely can move to talent evaluation mode.
There are 6 matches left and the organization should use those to prep for next year and beyond. I would be looking to try out some different looks and player combinations.
Pride v Racing Preview
Courtesy ISI Photos
I am a healthy scratch for this match. Let me explain…
When I was growing up in rural KY, I very rarely had the chance to attend college or pro level sporting events. Maybe once every few years, our family would make the trip to Cincinnati to see the Reds or Bengals. Occasionally we would make it to Freedom Hall to see a basketball game (usually UK's “home” game there) and I think I set foot in Rupp Arena once for a college basketball game. Don't get me wrong, I loved sports but I simply didn't have the access that I do today. I watched whatever local TV channels broadcasted until I got cable. Upon getting ESPN I followed whatever was on there including Austriailian Rules Football and Hockey, two sports that I doubt will ever be popular in central Kentucky.
Once a year, the Reds would send out a mailer that allowed you to pick a specific game or games to attend by checking a couple of boxes to select the date and the seat level. You mailed in a check and if you had nothing better to do (like me) you checked the mail everyday to see if your tickets had arrived. There was also a phone number on the mailer to call if you were interested in season tickets. THAT bit of knowledge was almost too much for my pre-adolescent brain to handle. You mean there were people who could go to EVERY game? I dreamed of being able to be one of “those” people. In retrospect maybe I should have aimed higher with my dreams, but what did a 9 or 10 year old kid know.
Which brings me to my healthy scratch. I was a U of L Football season ticket holder before Racing even existed. As it happens, this Saturday is one of the thankfully rare occasions where the U of L Football schedule clashes with the Racing schedule. Also thankfully there is no place on the schedule where they both have home games on the same date. Like most people I assume, I am opting for the live experience. Based on how terrible U of L looked on Monday, this might be a rare chance to win a game so I better make the most of it. The plan is to watch the Racing match late in the evening and give a recap on Sunday that includes player ratings.
As for the preview, I’m sure Bekki Morgan will do a much better job at that, so look for her post on The Beautiful Game Network.
However, here are a few “previewish” things. There is a rather lengthy injury report for Racing:
D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT)
D JULIA ASHLEY (OUT)
D SINCLAIRE MIRAMONTEZ (QUESTIONABLE)
F EMINA EKIC (QUESTIONABLE)
Julia didn't practice on Thursday, so that isn't a surprise but is a blow. Watch to see if the formation stays the same or changes. I have an inkling, but since I attended practice I am not going to share. The Soccer City Radio crew all predicted a 1-1 draw so I will go against the grain and say the 2nd goal secures a victory for Racing.
August Fleur-de-lis-FC.com Player of the Month
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.
August's Player of the Month is Nadia Nadim. Nadia had two goals and an assist, helping Racing accumulate 5 points in the Month of August.
Many People voted for Michelle Betos, and she could probably win it every month, but to me Nadia was the clear choice.
Racing definitely looks like a completely different team with her on the pitch. Racing were able to win the inaugural Women's Cup without Nadia seeing even a minute of playing time, but she was clearly the most consistent player on the field in the remainder of the matches.
Here is my favorite thing about Nadia's game: she always seems to be involved. In several matches, Naida dropped deep into the midfield to pick up possession. When the service to the forwards isn't there, she takes it on to herself to move the ball forward. She is never static. If McCaskill is the team’s engine, then Nadia is steering wheel. She directs the attack from all areas on the pitch.
Congratulations to Nadia and here's to continuing success!
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Post Match Thoughts
Yuki cleverly uses her media pass to get some great content for her YouTube channel.
Coach Mario Sanchez went with a new look starting XI, but ended up with another draw. Racing hasn't won a match in full time since their victory against KC in early August. This match felt very much like the draws against NJ/NY and Chicago with Racing taking an early lead but not quite being able to hold on for all 3 points. The Reign goal came from an attack from out wide, something to which Racing seems rather susceptible. The Racing goal was a typical one as well with an incisive pass as part of a rapid move resulting in a goal. Racing rarely scores from long periods of possession.
Back to the new look. I halfway expected Coach Sanchez to stick with the standard starting XI that Coach Holly used, but he went with a lineup that had never been seen before. The most unusual switch was Fox at Right Back and Martin at Left Back. Erin Simon, a usual starter never entered the match. Sanchez also preferred Baucom to Salmon, but both were rather quiet during the match with Salmon entering for Milliet at halftime. Milliet had plenty of starts early in the season so her entry wasn't as much of a surprise with Yuki out with an injury. Here's what I inferred from the changes:
Fox is deemed too necessary for defense to be moved into midfield and that may have to wait until next year.
Baucom will get a chance to make an impact up front.
Salmon may be getting a little tired, having played a full WSL season and being used quite often at Racing.
Racing is still trying to figure out their best back 4 and may be auditioning players for a back 3.
Zach Allen-Kelly is of the opinion and I agree that there isn't quite enough NWSL starting level quality in the team. Next year there will be 2 new teams that will thin out the quality even more, if teams don't find talent in the draft of overseas. I think Racing is definitely in talent evaluation mode.
If you watched the post match videos you saw that the team hasn't given up (which is good, but fans shouldn’t expect anything better than 9th) and Coach Sanchez sure does like to swear!
He does keep it clean during the match though and although he does yell a bit, he doesn't show his frustration with the players even if he does have to give the same instructions more than once. Most of those instructions have to do with pressing, and if this team is going to consistently apply a high press, they are going to have to communicate better with each other on the pitch. Matthews seems to know when to press pretty instinctively, but the rest of the front line is a little hit or miss.
I hope everyone enjoys a nice Labor Day weekend! Believe it or not, Racing only has 2 more matches in September, so October will be a busy month.
Racing 1 OL Reign 1 Player Ratings
Another day another draw. This game followed the similar pattern for most of Racing's draws with Racing scoring early and their opponent equalizing in the second half. Coach Sanchez tried a few different things. Some of them worked and some of them didn't.
Betos-7: Made some good saves, some great saves and didn't have a chance on the goal.
Bonner-7: Could be argued that she was slightly out of position for the goal, but was outnumbered in the box, so that seems harsh.
Riehl-7: Continues to play better and better each match.
Fox-7: I think the Reign might have been confused early by her switch to right back. She looked just as comfortable there.
Martin-7: Did fine in the left back spot.
McCaskill-8: Ran hard as usual and has a decent effort on goal.
Olofsson-8: Seems to now have recovered completely from her off game vs KC and looked solid as ever.
Milliet-6: Subbed off at half for Salmon who really didn't offer anything in a front 2 look with Matthews or Baucom.
Kizer -7: Kind of a quiet game other than the pass that opened up the chance for Nadim's goal.
Baucom-7: Had a shot on target, but needed more service. Matthews looked lively when she replaced her.
Nadim-8: Scored a goal and had another shot on target. Apparently was upset about something after the match, because after the team talk from Coach Sanchez she threw a water bottle at the bench and immediately left the field. This is something to see if we hear about later.
Racing v Reign Preview…but not really
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images
My wife once bought me tickets to a Pacers Cavs games back when LeBron was in his second stint with the Cleveland. As the game approached I noticed that it was the second game of a back-to-back part of the schedule. Of course LeBron had the night off and didn't travel with the team. I still had fun, but it would have been nice to see LeBron. The Cavs got destroyed (deservedly) and seeing Kevin Love just wasn't that big of a thrill. On a side note I saw a Warriors game in Oakland minus Steph Curry too, but I did get to see Durant, Thompson, Green and Anthony Davis on the Pelicans.
This little preamble is to say that fans like to see stars from the other teams. When I bought season tickets for Racing they didn't even have a coach (history repeats) let alone players. It wasn't the first thought in my mind or a deciding factor in why I bought tickets, but one of my early thoughts was “I will get to see Megan Rapinoe play in person.” She was the player I most wanted to see.
Flash Forward over a year, and now I realize that I may never get to see her play in person. I just got confirmation from Susie Rantz who covers the Reign that Coach Laura Harvey said that Rapinoe is out this weekend. I know she didn't travel with the team, so I am all but 100% sure she won't be in the stadium this Saturday. Hear this loud and clear: I DO NOT BLAME HER OR THE OL REIGN ONE BIT. How opposing fans might feel is very low down on the list of a team's concerns if it's even on the list. Megan Rapinoe is 36 years old and has played twice already this week. I don't know how many more years she is going to play, but I hope that Louisville hasn't missed its only chance to see one of the greatest soccer players to even play the game. I have said before that I don't watch a ton of international soccer, but what I do remember from watching is this: Megan Rapinoe in the 2019 World Cup was the best player on the field and it wasn't close. I’m not talking Messi or Ronaldo being the best player in their primes on the field. I’m talking it looked like she was playing FIFA on easy mode different. She did whatever she wanted, whenever she wanted. I don’t want to or mean to insult any of the other players, but she was so much noticeably better than it almost seemed unfair. Now memory is a funny thing and not a great discerning tool for finding facts or the truth, but that’s what her performance felt like to me and it's how I personally remember it. I’m sure others remember it differently.
Now on to the game. The Reign will be without Rapinoe, but had no trouble defeating Racing without her or the other Olympians in Tacoma. Racing has had a tough week and is on a 2 game losing streak. This is not a prediction but a wish…I HOPE RACING BEATS THE OL REIGN BY 5 GOALS. I HOPE THEIR FLIGHT HOME IS DELAYED. I HOPE THEY MISS THE PLAYOFFS BY A POINT AND LOOK BACK ON THIS GAME AS THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY. HOW DARE YOU DEPRIVE THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE THE CHANCE TO SEE ONE OF THE GREATEST! OUR CITY IS HOME TO THE GREATEST AND YOUR LACK OF RESPECT WILL NEVER BE FORGIVEN.
In case that wasn't clear I’m obviously being hyperbolic, but a win would be sweet.
Can we talk? (with Ellie Hurley)
September is Childhood Cancer Awareness Month. If you are reading this blog then you surely know Ellie's story. If not, you can catch up here. Ellie is a great example of how sports can give hope and how to persevere. I sent a list of questions to Ellie's mom, Morgan to get some insight into how Racing's biggest fan feels about the team and the season. See Morgan's self-described “mom notes” in parentheses.
What has been your favorite Racing memory so far this year?
“Gorp!! And the women’s cup… since we won it!! And meeting Michelle and Yuki and Cece and of course Nadia and Jorian”
If you could go to any away game, which city would you like to visit and why?
“Paris! I’ve been wanting to go to Paris for a looooong time. If I can’t go to Paris, I think Chicago. They have lots of museums and stuff and I’d like to see Mallory Pugh again” (she then sang a song she made up for her). Ed. Note: I hope we get to hear that song one day.
I saw that you recently started playing soccer. Do you try to play like any specific player?
“I crow hop like Michelle, and I try to kick it out like Savannah but I don’t slide. When I’m a defender I’m a mix of Emily and Erin without the falling. I jump around a lot and try to move the ball mostly” (She’s referring to Erin falling in a few games in a row)
You got to attend the Women's Cup reception at the Muhammad Ali Center. What was your favorite part of that event?
“Gorp!!! That’s the day I met Gorp! I liked seeing the players too. They all talked to me and were really nice, but I always talk to them after the games. Michelle said the most ‘bad butt’ part was my armband” Ed Note: “I giggled way too much at the thought of Michelle saying “bad butt”.
(I’m sure Michelle used a different phrase)
What has been your favorite class in school this year?
“Science of course”
Do you have a favorite piece of Racing merchandise?
“My hat that everyone has signed and the scarf that everyone signed too”
Do you think Racing should have a mascot?
“We already have a mascot… Gorp” Ed. Note: I guess I walked right into that one.
Do you have a favorite non-Racing player?
“Mallory Pugh, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe”
What other things do you like to do other than watch or play soccer?
“Spending time with my mommy, watch UK football, read my books, go to the comic book store.”
Racing have 8 more matches this year, how many do you think they will win?
“I want them to win all of them, but I’m gonna say at least 4 and not get out of my head”
Thanks again to Ellie for answering my questions and Morgan for transcribing her answers. Help fight pediatric cancer by donating to their favorite charity DanceBlue.
The Way Forward
One of the dumbest and utterly untrue statements that I have heard repeatedly in my professional career is “It doesn't matter who you report to.” This is usually given as a reason not to get upset when a boss leaves or there is a reorganization. I think corporations have maybe stopped using this so much recently, because times have changed. I have had dozens of bosses over the years and I can't think of anything more important when it comes to your job. Sometimes you get a great boss that you didn't sign up for and sometimes you get a terrible one that you did sign up for. All of this is to say is that your relationship with your leader matters a great deal.
Coach Christy Holly is no longer the leader of Racing Louisville FC on the field. There are probably some players happy to see him leave and some that are sad. It's hard to know what the players are thinking right now, but we know that Coach Holly was instrumental in getting several current players to sign with Racing. In fact, I’m sure he had a say in all of the roster decisions. Better writers and reporters will dig into the “why”, so I want to talk about the “what now?”
Sometimes clubs have a rigid philosophy. I’m not sure I like that. I think it's fine for a coach or organization to have a general philosophy about how they want to play in the short term, but times change. In fact I reject the idea of “the way we do things”. Appeal to tradition is a logical fallacy in which a person or people claim that just because something is tradition, it is the correct way forward. In short, it's the fallacy of “that's the way we've always done it.” Even though LouCity/Racing hasn't been around that long it's easy to fall into this behavior, especially if your highest leadership doesn't change much or all come from the same philosophical background.
I don't know how things run at the club. I have no real insight or access into the day to day. That's OK. The problem is that nobody does. The organization does what organizations do: they try to control the message. They have every right to do this. We as fans have every right to question their motivation when they do. We may never know exactly what happened that cost Coach Holly his job. I’m not sure that we even deserve to know. What we do deserve is an explanation on what the club will do to make sure whatever happened doesn't happen again. Part of that explanation I want to hear is how the club is changing to prevent history repeating itself. Let's be honest here. The NWSL has a coaching problem. How does Racing ensure that they expand the hiring pool to include better candidates and we just don't get more of the same? We'll be watching.
Dash 1 Racing 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing fell to the Houston Dash last night, and that loss surely eliminated any real hopes Racing had of making the playoffs this year. I personally don't think that loss was attributed to anything more than Houston making the best of their opportunities and simply not creating enough opportunities on the Racing side. Sometimes the analysis is as simple as that. In the grand scheme of things, this will be a rather forgettable performance. It will be one of those matches for which I will struggle to recall any details after the season is over. Keeping this in mind, I think it is more interesting to start to wildly speculate about the remainder of the season.
The major thing I have noticed this month is Emily Fox's playing time. She has been subbed out of 3 of the 6 league matches in August and didn't play at all in the Women's Cup Final. I don’t think it is a stretch to think of Fox as Racing's most reliable player, if not their best one. I don't think any of these substitutions have had anything to do with performance, so I believe there are 2 possibilities for her usage this month. The first one is obvious…rotation. I believe this is part of it. August was full of matches and no player needed to or actually played all 90 minutes in each match. Fox completed 90 minutes 3 times in August, so she got plenty of work. The second possibility is that Coach Holly is trying to evaluate his other defensive options at Left Back. Julia Ashley has played at both Left and Right Back, and Erin Simon has picked up minutes there too. With nothing left to lose the remainder of the season I wonder if Coach Holly is thinking about shifting Fox to a midfield role.
I personally think Fox would be most effective in a 3-5-2 formation as the left winger, or as a left sided midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Racing doesn't have the CBs yet to play with 3 at the back, or at least enough healthy ones. I think a 4-2-3-1 formation might be a better fit for more than just Fox. Here are the players that I think would benefit from the switch:
Fox: Emily could use her passing and dribbling skills more in the middle of the field and actually flow in and out of the attack more deceptively from a midfield position. Her defensive skills could also be used just as much in the middle of the pitch as on the outside.
McCaskill: Savannah is Racing's engine. She runs the team. She often drops deep and picks up the ball in the defensive third and attacks in the final third just as effectively. The NWSL is used to seeing her in more of an attacking role and almost every time I watch the Twitch/Paramount Plus commentary someone brings this up. I think McCaskill is good enough to play anywhere on the field but some midfield help would let he play higher up the pitch where she wouldn't have to expend so much energy on defense, which I personally think sometimes makes her attacking prowess suffer. The other thing this would do is that is would not allow opponents to focus so much on Savannah and lock her down.
Nadim: To my eyes Nadim is a 10 and not a 9. She doesn't need service to be creative. She is the smoothest player on the pitch. That's what you want out of a number 10. You want equal parts passing and shooting. To me she is just at good in the middle of the pitch as the final third. She also likes to drop deep to pick up the ball. It would be nice if when she did that she had a passing option further up the pitch.
Salmon: Ebony has looked a little isolated when playing out wide and I think she is more effective when she gets the ball supplied to her vs. having to attack from out wide. She is most effective when she can get a shot off in 3 touches or less.
Here is what this formation would look like:
It would potentially weaken the wing defense, but if you picture Fox sliding over to help Simon and Olofsson sliding over to help Ashley, I think it could work.
I don’t know if Racing's staff will try a formation like this, but I think it may be time to experiment a bit with the focus toward next year. I think Racing will use the rest of the season to evaluate talent and look for the biggest areas needed for improvement in the draft.
Dash 1 Racing 0 Player Ratings
Courtesy ISI Photos
Racing were beaten by an excellent goal, but some of the old habits are creeping back in. Racing's style of play seems to be dictated philosophically at the executive level. I would like to see a few more direct attacks vs. the over passing that you see in possession many times. Racing plays best when they are direct, regardless of whether it is a 10 pass move or a coordinated high press which forces a mistake. Their lack of a cutting edge showed very much tonight.
Betos-6: Same old Betos. Stopped plenty, but nothing to do on the goal.
Fox-7: Curiously subbed early. Was good while in.
Martin-7: Played well in 2 positions.
Riehl-6: Made a few odd decisions playing the ball into pressure unnecessarily.
Ashley-7: I thought she had a good game, but was nursing an injury so only got 53 minutes.
McCaskill-7: I don't know why the NWSL commentators want to focus on what she isn't doing vs. what she is doing, which is being the engine that runs the team.
Milliet-6: Looked lively early. Subbed off in the 65th minute.
Olofsson-6: Recovered from a poor performance with a solid one.
Kizer-7: Just couldn't quite find the right last touch or pass to unlock the defense.
Nadim-7 (Player of the Match): In another puzzling bit of commentary on Paramount Plus, she was criticized for…well I couldn't quite say actually. I guess it was for not playing as a natural 9? Anyway had a shot on goal and a great cross on Racing's best scoring chance.
Ekic-5: Anonymous, and I wonder if this will be her last shot starting for awhile.
Quick Preview: Dash v Racing
I’m a little late posting a preview for tonight's match vs. The Houston Dash, so I will keep the preview short and sweet. The Dash are in a group of teams fighting for a playoff spot with about 5 other teams. All of these teams are capable of winning or losing any match. Houston being the home team tonight should give them a slight edge. Zach Allen-Kelly predicted “pain" for tonight's match in our predictions column for the State of Louisville. He is also a terrible prognosticator, so we won't read much into that. I expect a bounce back performance tonight with Racing getting at least a point.
One thing to watch for will be the starting XI. Coach Holly has either made wholesale changes or none at all (barring a replacement for injury). It would be nice to see how this team looks with 2 to 4 changes. There may be a chance to see that tonight. I predicted earlier this week that we might see a full NWSL debut for Katie Lund tonight, which would be fun. Racing will be without Miramontez on the bench due to her red card, so look for at least one difference in the roster vs. Wednesday.
A Look Forward to the Expansion Draft by Travis Murphy
Editor's note: Travis Murphy is taking a look at the upcoming NWSL expansion draft. We disagree slightly on the list of players to protect and if it comes down to actually having to protect players, I will share my thoughts. Regardless expect that the college draft to impact roster moves as well.
Two new teams will be entering the NWSL to compete in the 2022 season: Angel City FC in Los Angeles and a yet-to-be-named team in San Diego.
That means an expansion draft will be held in the offseason on the 16th of December. Other than the date, the only detail of this draft that’s currently known is that teams will be able to protect only 9 players, down from 11 in last year’s expansion draft when Racing had an opportunity to begin building their team. The Racing front office has likely been preparing different scenarios for this expansion draft all year so let’s speculate on the team’s strategy.
One key piece of that strategy took place this week – Racing traded the rights of Christen Press to Angel City FC in return for roster protection during the expansion draft. Racing just reduced their exposure in the expansion draft from losing four players down to losing two at most – Angel City cannot select from Racing, and San Diego will be limited to selection no more than two per team.
That is, of course, assuming the 2020 expansion draft rules remain in place: each club can select no more that two players per team; only two US National Team players could be taken overall by the selecting teams; and if a National Team player is selected the picking team cannot select an additional player from the team. Racing must submit a protected player list to the league in advance of the draft, all other players under contract with Racing or whose rights are held (draft picks and players selected in last year’s expansion draft but not under contract) will be available for selection by San Diego.
Must Protect: Freja Olofsson, Gemma Bonner, Ebony Salmon, Nadia Nadim, Savannah McCaskill, Emily Fox
I don’t think there are any surprises on this list. Olofsson, Bonner and Fox have played all 90 minutes anchoring the Racing defense numerous time this season. Salmon, Nadim and McCaskill are the key players in the Racing attack. These six represent the core group moving into 2022 that the club will protect.
Pick 3: CeCe Kizer, Michelle Betos, Emina Ekic, Yuki Nagasato, Erin Simon, Kaleigh Riehl
For the three remaining slots, decision making for the club becomes more difficult. Five of these players are regular contributors, both in minutes played and importance to the team. Ekic is not at that level yet but is also the “Hometown Girl”, the team’s fifth draft choice and has a lot of untapped potential. Riehl has settled into the second CB role recently and would solidify our backline into next season, protecting Simon would have a similar impact on our defense’s right side. Betos is the captain, has immensely helped the club’s growth through early struggles, helped set the club’s culture, has had some spectacular performances in net and become a fan favorite. Kizer and Nagasato have both contributed solidly in the attack but been missing at other times.
Of the six outlined, the club should protect Riehl, Kizer and Ekic. All three players are young and should continue to grow and contribute more. There are other options than Simon at right back should she be selected in the expansion draft. Leaving Nagasato and Betos unprotected is a gamble that they will not be drafted due to their age – they’re not likely to be building blocks for the future of the new teams. In addition, there is a wealth of good goalkeepers in the league, and it seems likely that other, younger players will be available at that position. In particular, goalkeeper Abby Smith was just traded to Portland but should be backing up Bella Bixby at that position and left unprotected as a result.
Connections to Southern California are another consideration for the front office. Matthews’ husband signed with the San Francisco 49ers recently and she may desire a move to the west coast as a result. Racing also has rights to two current Pac-12 NCAA players – Smith at Cal Berkeley and Talley at USC. They may be interesting choices for the expansion sides depending on how their fall NCAA seasons progress.
What most Racing fans are hoping for is that the front office can put together a similar trade for the rights to Heath to turn an unused asset into roster protection from San Diego as well. That is certainly a scenario being looked at right now, but it may be a little more difficult to execute depending on Heath’s desire to play there. Another possible scenario: a three-team trade between Portland, Racing and San Diego. Heath loved playing in Portland, San Diego could negotiate for a couple players from Portland and Racing receives allocation money and roster protection.
The following list is what Racing would need to submit to the league office if there are no other roster changes between now and the deadline.
