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Michael Shaw 12/11/21 Michael Shaw 12/11/21

The Protection List

Racing released their protection list on Friday and while some of the names were a surprise, most of the names were pretty straightforward. I think the two surprises were the inclusion of Kirsten Davis (pictured above) and the exclusion of Savannah McCaskill. First on Davis, her inclusion is probably most likely due to San Diego's desire to acquire her rights. Racing and the Wave presumably have been negotiating for months now in order to work out a trade that would include draft protection for Racing, so the teams would know each other’s wants by now. To think that Wave President Jill Ellis must have inquired about Kirsten Davis several times isn't too much of a leap based on the list. I personally think Parker Goins for Arkansas, who Racing drafted in the third round last year, had a better season and has more value to Racing as she can play in the midfield. I hope protecting Davis doesn't mean that Goins gets taken.

As for Savannah, there are a few reasons that I think Racing may have for not protecting her. First, she just signed a new contract. I am unsure if contract terms are made available to the expansion teams, but if they are, Racing may believe that San Diego may not want to be tied to the contract that Savannah just signed. If they aren't made available, the mystery may be enough to ward them off as well. The second reason might be that like seemingly every other team, Racing has a handshake deal with San Diego on who the Wave will be selecting. I have no proof of this, but rumors keep swirling around Portland and a deal that they will announce next Friday, which would be after the expansion draft. The expansion draft seems to be a mechanism to force trades this year. It's a reflection of being able to only protect 9 players vs. 11. The third option is the one that most fans really don't want to hear, but maybe McCaskill isn't a good fit for the team. I don't mean personality wise for sure. She was the vice captain, but with the captain in goal, she sometimes became the de facto captain on the pitch. Her effort and desire are unassailable. The potential issue is that she doesn't have a true natural position in the team. She's a fine soccer player, but is she a good striker? She only scored two goals. Is she a good midfielder? She loses possession often and sometimes over dribbles. For all of the things she does well, she does have some frustrating tendencies. All or none of the above may be true and I would be fine with McCaskill as an integral part of the team next year, but fans may need to brace themselves for another tough loss.

Michael Shaw 12/9/21 Michael Shaw 12/9/21

Welcome Kim Björkegren

I’ll open with a PSA. Type 0246 while holding the Alt key to get the “ö” character (make sure you have a number pad and that the number lock is on). Next, I will say “Look at that Trophy!” It’s simple and elegant and not a repugnant eyesore that deserves to be buried under 10 feet of toxic waste. If the Cypriot First Division can have a nice trophy, why can’t the NWSL? I briefly forgot: the NWSL is not allowed to have nice things like a decent trophy, third kits, or peace of mind that a dirt-bag predator isn’t still lurking around the corner somewhere. Covering this league and team oscillates between pure joy and abject depression so often that sometimes I forget that a few stories are just neutral reporting exercises.

This is one of those exercises. Racing Louisville hired a coach sometime in the fairly recent past, and that coach was announced today. The interview and vetting process seemed fine when held up to the very little scrutiny that media outlets can afford or are allowed to give. The players seem to like him, and I guess that will have to do for now. Of note, James O’Connor stated that around 80% of the interviewed candidates were women. The other finalist was a woman. Racing decided that Kim’s impressive CV was enough of a tie-breaker, along with player input, to be named as the new coach. I have no idea of the qualifications of the other candidates interviewed, but I pose the rhetorical question: “How can you build a CV when you’re never given a chance?” Everybody is always in such a rush to judge a hiring decision right out of the gate. Isn’t it more prudent to give Mr. Björkegren at least half a season before we pass too much judgement? I say “yes”, so case closed on the hiring process for now.

As for the candidate, he seems to check the boxes that Soccer Holdings likes which are:

He seems to agree with the overall footballing philosophy.
He appears to be of strong character
He has won in the past

He said all of the right things in the press conference, but honestly who says “I want to sit back and absorb pressure while the other team dictates play.” He obviously said the opposite in that he favors a press and an attacking style which dictates tempo and controls the game. Don’t we all? As an introduction it was fine. Of course Racing being Racing, he will have to get visa issues sorted out and will not be present with the rest of the team during the drafts. I’m sure he will attend via Zoom. He targeted mid-January for a move. I don’t know what month best represents what Louisville has to offer, but January sure isn’t it. He did mention that he has been evaluating players like Howell and Girma, and they will probably be the first two picks in the draft. He also mentioned that his time in China presented a similar challenge to the one he expects here in Louisville.

I think the one thing that caught my ear was his focus on improvement. When Bekki and I did player profiles for the Beautiful Game Network, each player we spoke with talked about development and how it continues to be important throughout your career. Hearing that development would be a focus was I’m sure encouraging to the players he spoke with. Based on reports, it sounds like he knows Nadia best out of the current Racing players, but didn’t want to share too much on that existing relationship. I don’t read anything into this other than it seems like he will play his cards close to the vest.

To me, the more pressing issue is the upcoming expansion draft. I have heard some odd things about Racing’s strategy, so I decided another prediction would probably not do anybody much good in terms of guessing who they are going to protect. I am led to believe that some players have expansion draft protection (wisely) written into their contracts. This makes evaluating on football terms virtually impossible, so no more predictions. I would love to know some of the details in the contracts like the length of the terms and items like draft protection. To date I haven’t been able to find anything. I don’t want to blame Racing for this. I think I asked, but I can’t remember when or in what context. Next year I hope to do better and know more.

Michael Shaw 12/8/21 Michael Shaw 12/8/21

Tough Decisions

In a press release today, Racing Louisville named the following players that will not be returning next year:

G-Michelle Betos
F-Katie McClure
G-Shelby Money
F-Jorian Baucom
D-Brooke Hendrix
F-Vanessa Kara
D-Sinclair Miramontez

Four players also had their options exercised for 2022: Milliet, Oloffson, Otto and McCaskill.

I will for sure miss Michelle Betos, as I am positive that almost all other Racing fans will as well. Of the names released today by Racing, hers was the most surprising and probably hardest to understand. According to executive Vice President James O’Connor, “Through offseason processes, we made the very difficult decision not to negotiate a new contract with Michelle. She wants to be a starter in the league. With that in mind, we felt it important to be open with Michelle and let her seek a new opportunity promising more minutes.” Restating this, the key things that went into the decision were:

Betos would have had to sign an new contract or exercised an existing option on a current contract by Tuesday, December 7 if she wanted to stay.
Racing were upfront with Michelle, telling her that Katie Lund was going to be Racing’s starting keeper next season.
Michelle obviously expressed a desire to fight for a starting keeper role on another team, so she and Racing mutally agreed to not continue forward with a contract for next year.

This was a 100% footballing decision. That doesn’t make it hurt any less, but as a fan you have to decide if you follow the club or follow the player. There are plenty of fans who just follow players and I don’t expect their responses to be rational. If this decision is the right decision for all involved, which if I’m being completely honest I think it is, then there should be no hard feelings between the club and most of its fans. It still stings, but I believe Lund will do just fine in goal. I expect thoughtful and measured responses on Twitter. (We need to collectively decide to come up with a designated font for sarcasm. I vote for bold italics.)

Now Racing must do a couple of things very quickly. One is to decide on a new club captain. My advice would be to sort this out straight away and name Savannah McCaskill as captain. She is currently vice-captain, so this one should be a no-brainer. However, I think it’s important to do it sooner vs. later. This could be complicated by the fact that the players tend to vote on this, so mid-January is another possible date for this announcement. The second item is that Racing now certainly has to protect Lund in the expansion draft. Here is my updated projected protection list:

1. Fox

2. Nadim

3. Bonner

4. Salmon

5. Kizer

6. McCaskill

7. Lund

8. Nagasato

9. Otto

This moves Merrick off the list, but I hope Racing manage to hold onto her. As for the other names, some fans’ favorite players will be on the list, but none of them are super surprising. Of that list the slight surprise is Katie McClure, who I thought played well late in the season. However, Racing had way too many forwards on the roster and have F Kirsten Davis and Attacking Midfielder Parker Goins coming in as very highly regarded.

The other note of interest is that every other team, bar Angel City and SD, will be releasing lists today too. Expect a wild day on WOSO Twitter. I think teams will be able to sign other team’s released players, but I don’t think there will be a great number of these. I will be interested to see if any other big names end up on the lists.

Michael Shaw 12/5/21 Michael Shaw 12/5/21

The Fan’s Wishes vs. The Team’s Plan

First of all, I wanted to share a schedule of NWSL activities over the next few weeks:

Monday, November 29, 2021 Trade Window Opens
Friday, December 3, 2021 Trade Window Closes
Tuesday, December 7, 2021 Terms of New Contracts, List of Waived Players, List of Players Receiving Exercised Options Deadline
Wednesday, December 8, 2021 End of Season Process Waiver Wire Commences
Thursday, December 9, 2021 End of Season Process Waiver Wire Concludes
Friday, December 10, 2021 Expansion Draft Protected Lists Due from All Teams (noon ET)
Friday, December 10, 2021 Protected/Unprotected Lists Distributed to All Teams (5:00 pm ET)
Thursday, December 16, 2021 Expansion Draft
Friday, December 17, 2021 Trade Window Opens

Saturday, December 18, 2021 College Draft

There has been a flurry of activity so far, and here is a pretty good summary from CBSSports.com.

As for Racing, there hasn’t been much activity. I would expect that Racing might put some players on the Waiver Wire and could possibly pick up some players off waivers, but we’ll see. The biggest item on Racing fan’s minds will almost certainly be the announcement of a head coach. Surely the team has identified a coach by now, but something it preventing them from making a public announcement. The only thing that I can think of that could be delaying the announcement at this point is that the coach is currently engaged in duties for another team. If that isn’t the case, it’s a bit worrisome that we don’t know who the coach is yet. How would you feel as a coach if you had no input into the Draft Protection list, which is due on Friday at noon? I can’t imagine that won’t announce the coach this week. If they don’t…well I don’t quite know what to think, but it isn’t good.

Moving on…the holiday season is quite often filled with wish list and resolutions to improve in the new year. I wanted to take a moment and outline the wishes that I have for Racing in 2022. Unfortunately for fans, our wishes can only really come true with a defined plan from the team. I’m fairly confident that Racing has been diligently trying to obtain roster protection from San Diego, but outside of knowing what the plan is, I have to hope that they made every effort to work out a deal. If you look at some of the other deals that San Diego has secured, you will see that the price demanded from the Wave was pretty steep. I assume that any deal that Racing tried to work out with San Diego was deemed too unfavorable towards Racing. Outside of the short term roster protection, I have 4 wishes that I hope are part of Racing Louisville’s plans for 2022.

Hire the right coach: Above all, this will likely be the best determinant of long-term success for the club. It has to be a PR win and it also has to be a win on the field as well. I will remind you that Soccer Holdings has made some really good decisions and some very questionable ones, so hiring the right person as the new head coach isn’t a guarantee. The one slightly troubling thing at this point is that the job has been open since August. We know that the club leadership will not be rushed into a decision (see letting 3 players manage Louisville City for 7 matches in 2018), but if you take your time, I fully expect better due diligence than was conducted on Christy Holly. I am hoping that they nail this hire, but I wouldn’t call myself fully confident.
Achieve a more balanced roster: Sometimes players’ listed positions don’t mean much as they can play in multiple positions, but in Racing’s case their roster is woefully short on midfielders. They really only have 3 true midfielders. Every other team in the NWSL has at least 8 nominal midfielders according to Fotmob. North Carolina had 12 listed on their roster for 2021. Savanah McCaskill is listed as a midfielder some of the time and played there quite a bit, but she isn’t a true midfielder. The good news is that help is almost certainly coming. Third-round selection from last year Parker Goins is listed as a forward on the Arkansas Razorbacks official site, but she actually won SEC Midfielder of the Year in 2021. Racing will surely plan for her in midfield. If Racing had any luck at all, they would have gotten the #1 overall pick and selected Jaelin Howell from Florida St. As it stands, there is a slight chance that San Diego takes Naomi Girma from Stanford, but Racing likely picks up a very good defender in Girma and then selects another Florida St. midfielder in Clara Robbins, who was the ACC Tournament MVP this year. Olympic gold medal winner Julia Grosso from Texas is also a possibility. The other problem is that Racing has too many attackers. Look for them to leave plenty of attacking talent unprotected in the expansion draft and possibly place a few on waivers.
Secure a local TV deal: The NWSL is a poorly run organization. This is not breaking news. They are woefully understaffed and many of the decisions they make seem baffling and unplanned. In the middle of the season last year, they decided to allow teams to have local TV deals. A well run league would have made this decision at the beginning of the year. However, Racing has now had about 6 months to be working on a deal. I believe that local TV is how you get more casual fans. Casual fans are ultimately as important, if not more important than die-hard fans. It’s hard to sustain any league on just die-hard fans and season ticket holders, especially a young one. There are definitely some people, like my parents, who I could convince to tune into a game if they could easily find it on TV. They aren’t going to seek it out, but if I can direct then toward a reliable channel they would watch. Racing already has a tailor-made broadcast team available in Jeff Greer and Casey Whitfield. If I were a local channel, I would definitely be interested in broadcasting matches next year.
Average 8,000 fans in 2022: The local TV deal would surely help with this. The team will continue to add die-hard fans, but those fans often start out as casual fans that become die-hard. This one is a little be out the the team’s direct control, but I believe it is achievable. Racing does a great job with promotion, so I think this is entirely achievable. The NWSL final surely helped with this too as almost every out-of-town fan would surely consider another trip to Louisville based on the response fans of multiple teams gave the stadium and the city.
It will surely be a busy week in Racing news, so stay tuned for additional updates.

Michael Shaw 11/25/21 Michael Shaw 11/25/21

What's in a name?

This article originally appeared on stateoflouisville.com. It was the first piece I did for that site. My writing style has surely changed since then, but I present this piece (mostly) unedited. Forgive the way too much sharing of personal information and enjoy.

We all know why our beloved club is named Racing Louisville FC. What may be foreign to some is why “Racing” is even a name that’s used in soccer. About six to twelve months ago when the buzz around a new NWSL team in Louisville started to pick up, one of my friends asked me about the name “Racing”. I was somewhat prepared to answer this question, and being an insufferable know-it-all who loves nothing better than sweeping a category while watching Jeopardy! I was happy to share what I knew.

First, the obvious one: the horse racing connection. I think he had that part figured out. He said he liked the original provisional name “Proof”, which frankly I didn't much mind either. I then went on a brief (to me, but probably “sorry I asked” to him) explanation of the history of the “Racing” moniker. I am a very, very mildly interested follower of Racing 92, a French Rugby Union club in France who I had seen one lazy Saturday afternoon. The reason they caught my eye were their fantastic (let's call it for reasons that will become apparent later) Cambridge Blue kits made by Le Coq Sportif. Don't Google Cambridge Blue. You will get the wrong color. Check out the kit here. All of this to say that there is a history of sporting clubs named “Racing”. The interesting bit is almost none of them are English.

Racing Club Warwick FC, who plays in the NINTH level of the English Pyramid is the only association football (soccer) club named Racing in Great Britain. Oddly enough, it is named Racing due to its proximity to a racetrack. So why is the name Racing a semi-popular choice for a sporting club, especially in France? I don’t have a definite answer to that question but a little research has given me a pretty good idea.

First a quick diversion. I am a self-professed Anglophile. I love many things English. When I was young, I devoured anything English that I could get, especially TV and music. I have a fantastic collection of Britpop CDs. I love Arsenal. I state these things not to make myself sound cool or unique, which my 18–21-year-old self definitely thought he was, but to show the longing to absorb a foreign culture as a rather common, and not new condition. Many historical volumes have been written about one culture loving something new and shiny from a far-off land.

The relevance of this is that in the 19th Century, many French sporting enthusiasts became enamored with English sporting culture. The French had been for many centuries very protective of their language. However, English words or “Anglicisms” began to enter the lexicon. Based on a book Titled Anglicisms, Neologisms, and Dynamic French by Michael D. Pico de (1996), I was able to date the Anglicism “Racing” to 1851. The latter half of the 19th century is probably the key to the name’s popularity. The Racing club de France was formed in 1886 as a multi-sport enterprise that included, football, rugby, basketball, swimming, athletics, tennis and many more. The rugby and football clubs are now Racing Club de France Football who was a founding member of Ligue 1, but now plays in a lower division and the aforementioned Racing 92. Both of these clubs’ uniforms are still that shade of blue mentioned above. This is an enduring homage to Cambridge's rugby team, whom the founders of the club wanted to emulate. Two other French clubs, RC Lens, and Racing Club de Roubaix both use the Racing name due to the term’s popularity and their time of founding.

The other famous “Racing” and the one that pops up most in the initial research into the name is Racing Club de Avellaneda from Argentina. Their colors are also blue but darker. The story there is that the two clubs that merged to form Racing Club de Avellaneda adopted the “Racing” name from a French auto racing magazine owned by Germán Vidaillac, a French owner of the newly established club: an Argentine Team, with an English name from a French magazine.

But why “Racing” and Football? The key there is partially that Racing Club de France was an omni-sport club and maybe the French took “racing” to mean athletic vs. actually participating in race. I honestly think like most slang, the word “Racing” was cool to whatever the 19th century French Anglophile equivalent of a 21-year-old American Anglophile was. Racing…a cool name even a century and a half later.

Michael Shaw 11/24/21 Michael Shaw 11/24/21

Expansion Draft Analysis

Now that Racing and the NWSL as a whole have entered the offseason, the upcoming drafts will surely be on the minds of all fans. The recently renamed KC Current will only be concerned with the college draft on December 18th, but the rest of the teams will have an expansion draft on December 16th to navigate. Racing has protection from Angel City FC through the Christen Press trade, but the newly christened San Diego Wave FC can still select a player from Racing. The closer the draft gets, the lower the odds that Racing can work out a deal, so I wanted to take a look at who Racing might protect and who might get selected in an expansion draft. The expansion draft will last nine rounds, basically allowing the two expansion teams to select a player each from the nine teams who are included in the draft process unless the teams have negotiated protection like Racing and ACFC.

This also gives me a chance to do a quasi-roster review for the season. I am going to go through the roster in numerical order and give my opinion on:

1. Reasons to keep the player on the roster

2. Reasons to not keep the player on the roster

3. Percent chance that the player will be on the opening day roster in 2022 (ranging between >99% and <1%

4. Will Racing protect the player in the Expansion draft?

I will start the process by reviewing the three 2021 draft picks that returned to college for their senior years: Kirsten Davis (F), Parker Goins (F), and Emily Smith (D). According to my interpretation of the draft rules, San Diego could select the rights to any of these three players, so they are worthy of a quick examination.

Kirsten Davis

Reasons to keep: Kirsten had 14 goals at a rate of .74 goals/game during the 2021 season for Texas Tech. She has been a consistent scorer for Texas Tech for her entire career.

Reasons to not keep: Racing have quite a few forwards on their roster, and between Davis and Goins, Parker Goins seems to be more flexible in her position.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I give her a 95% chance of being on the roster due to Racing spending a second-round draft pick on her (13th overall) and her proven goal-scoring record, although anything close to her college production would be amazing.

Protect? No. I don’t think San Diego will pick any of the 3 drafts picks mentioned here. They will have enough youth. They will be looking for experience.

Parker Goins

Reasons to keep: Kirsten had 11 goals and 13 assists during her senior season through 23 games and the Arkansas Razorbacks are still active in the NCAA tournament as of today.

Reasons to not keep: None. I expect her to be a regular player, if not a starter.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: As with Davis, I will say that there is a 95% chance that she makes the squad. Again, Racing spent a third-round pick on her (21st overall), so there is incentive to give her a chance, which I think she will take.

Protect? No. See above.

Emily Smith

Reasons to keep: Led the Cal Bears in minutes and was a captain for 3 straight years. She was selected All-Conference in every season, and first team All-Pac-12 in 2019. Racing needs defenders.

Reasons to not keep: Will have to fight for a roster spot, so if she makes the team, it will be on merit.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I put her at around 80%. Racing are not all that deep in defense, so I think that increases her chances.

Protect? No. See above.

#1 Michelle Betos

Reasons to keep: She is team captain, a proven leader, and a great shot stopper. She organizes the defense and is a proven high-level NWSL goalie.

Reasons to not keep: Katie Lund. Lund looks the part of an NWSL goalie. I can’t imagine that Betos can keep her fully on the bench for much longer. I expect the goalkeeper competition to be fully open for next season.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think there is an 85% chance she is on the roster next year. Racing will not protect 2 goalkeepers and may not protect any. San Diego could do a lot worse than having Michelle Betos lead a new team. She will be 34 when the season starts, so Racing may count on San Diego selecting a younger keeper that can be on the roster for a long time.

Protect? If I were Racing, I would do everything in my power to work out a deal with San Diego, so that they don’t have to submit a protection list to the league. That hasn’t happened yet. If I were in charge I would protect her, but my guess is that Racing rolls the dice and leaves her unprotected.

#2 Lauren Milliet

Reasons to keep: Racing is thin in the midfield and she can play in multiple positions. She had a solid season in 2021 and is still young enough to show improvement year over year.

Reasons to not keep: Racing would love to draft Jaelin Howell who is a consensus top two pick in the draft. If they get her, she will almost certainly start in the midfield. That would severely limit Milliet’s chances to start, but not necessarily her appearances.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: With Racing being so limited in midfield currently, I think there is a very good change she will return. Let’s call it 70%.

Protect? No. Nothing against Milliet, but the team could find a replacement for her skills, other than her ability to do a flip throw.

#3 Erin Simon

Reasons to keep: She can play at both left and right back and has lots of experience.

Reasons to not keep: As other defenders got healthy, mainly Julia Ashley, she saw her minutes limited. She also only played 90 minutes 3 times, compared to Emily Fox who played 90 minutes 18 times and Neely Martin who played 90 minutes 9 times.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: My guess is that she won’t be back, but will be given every chance during camp. I put her at 45% to return.

Protect? No. Racing has better options in defense.

#4 Gemma Bonner

Reasons to keep: She is Racing’s best central defender. Case closed.

Reasons to not keep: None. She will almost certainly be on the team.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she is a lock, so >99%.

Protect? Yes. It’s a no-brainer.

#5 CeCe Kizer

Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s most consistent offensive threat all season.

Reasons to not keep: None. Unless a team want to make a ridiculous trade offer to Racing, she will be here in 2022.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Again, I think she is a lock, so >99%.

Protect? Yes. I don’t even think it’s a slightly difficult decision.

#7 Savannah McCaskill

Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s engine for most of the season. She had a few goals and a few assists. She played just about every minute she possibly could.

Reasons to not keep: This isn’t going to be a popular opinion, but she is a bit of a square peg. She isn’t a natural midfielder, but that is where she played just about all season. I wouldn’t play her at forward based on what I expect the roster to be in 2022. She also does tend to get caught in possession from time to time.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: All of that being said, there is virtually no chance that she isn’t on the roster. Just because a player doesn’t have a natural position doesn’t mean they aren’t a good player. Sometimes being a square peg is a nightmare for the opposing team as well.

Protect? Yes. It’s another easy-ish decision, but I would probably hesitate to call it a no-brainer.

#8 Freja Olofsson

Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s most consistent midfielder. In an upcoming piece for the Beautiful Game Network, Bekki Morgan and I will share a little bit of our conversation with her. Here is a tiny little spoiler: she probably would prefer to play a little further forward.

Reasons to not keep: Almost none. Taylor Otto had a great cameo at the end of the season, so losing her would not be a complete disaster, but she should definitely be on the team next year.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: All but a virtual lock. I put it at 98%.

Protect? I might try to sneak her through unprotected. I think she is more valuable to Racing than she would be for San Diego. In the end I think I would leave her unprotected just because I don’t think San Diego would spend an international roster spot on her. Some of this expansion draft process is a poker match with the other teams.

#9 Ebony Salmon

Reasons to keep: She was Racing’s leading scorer, and has a ton of upside.

Reasons to not keep: I think she would ultimately like to play in the WSL in England, so she probably won’t resign for a second deal after her initial stay in Louisville, but you never know. She will continue to get starts and minutes, but I think the competition among the forwards for playing time in 2022 will be pretty high.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be here. >99%

Protect? Yes. San Diego would snatch her up in a heartbeat.

#10 Nadia Nadim

Reasons to keep: Was Racing’s best player during her all too brief time on the field in Louisville.

Reasons to not keep: None, but anytime you have to recover from a serious injury, things could change.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be almost certainly be here unless she has a setback in her recovery. It’s not quite a certainty due to that so let’s say 99%.

Protect? Yes. See Salmon

#11 Emily Fox

Reasons to keep: Too many to mention, so I won’t.

Reasons to not keep: None whatsoever.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: >99%.

Protect? Yes. She is the first name on the protection list.

#12 Sinclair Miramontez

Reasons to keep: Racing don’t have a ton of defensive options.

Reasons to not keep: She probably isn't quite good enough to be on the roster next year if Racing add any more defenders.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She surely will be somewhere else next season, <1%

Protect? No.

#13 Emina Ekic

Reasons to keep: Even though I’m sure she didn’t get as much playing time as she wanted, she has shown potential when fully healthy.

Reasons to not keep: Racing are deep in attack, but her connection to the city make her that much more important.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I don’t think she is a lock. If Racing don’t protect her, San Diego might pick her and either keep her or make Racing pay dearly to get her back. I’d say it’s 95%

Protect? No. She is number 10 or 11 on a 9 player list.

#14 Nearly Martin

Reasons to keep: She was a really useful utility defender after making the roster as a trialist. She seemed steadier as her minutes increased.

Reasons to not keep: She isn’t unreplaceable and probably isn’t a long-term starter.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Like Olofsson, I think she is more valuable to Racing than she would be for another team. She will have to make the team on merit during training camp, but she’s done that before and will easily do it again in my opinion. I put her chances of returning at 90%

Protect? No.

#15 Brooke Hendrix

Reasons to keep: Racing don’t have ton of height, so she is one of the better options for a header in the box. She also scored a very memorable goal in Racing’s first match.

Reasons to not keep: After that goal, it’s hard to remember her distinguishing herself. Once Bonner arrived, she found herself out of the team on several occasions. Even when Bonner was out, Martin was preferred at CB.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: A new coach might have a new take on her, but realistically I put it as 5%.

Protect? No.

#16 Julia Ashley

Reasons to keep: She showed enough in the last 4 matches to merit a full shot on the team when healthy. Having her on the team allows for Fox to play in a different position if needed.

Reasons to not keep: She will have to earn a roster spot during training camp, so if she doesn’t show her best there, she may be a casualty to the numbers.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she will come in hungry for a chance to prove herself and will easily make the team. 85%

Protect? No, but I did consider it. I think she has real potential.

#17 Yuki Nagasato

Reasons to keep: She’s Yuki. She is valuable on and off the field. Is the most calming presence on the field in my opinion.

Reasons to not keep: She is closer to the end of her career than the beginning and isn’t as quick as she once was.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Nobody wants to exist in a Yuki-less Louisville next year. >99%

Protect? Back during the summer, I would have called this a tough one, but now I think she is too valuable not to protect, so yes.

#18 Kaleigh Riehl

Reasons to keep: She was a solid performer at CB and those are tough to find.

Reasons to not keep: I don’t really see any to be honest.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: If she isn’t picked by San Diego, she will be here, so 90%.

Protect? This is the toughest call on the list, but I say Merrick gets protected over Riehl. San Diego’s signing of Abby Dahlkemper might decrease the worry associated with not protecting her a little bit.

#19 Taylor Otto

Reasons to keep: As with Milliet and Olofsson, Racing need to keep their existing midfielders.

Reasons to not keep: She didn’t see much playing time, so she’s difficult to evaluate. Her reputation at UNC probably makes up for that.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: She will be almost certain to return, so 95%.

Protect? Yes, or at least I would. I rate her and Olofsson as virtually identical and the fact that Taylor wouldn’t cost San Diego an international spot means that she will need protecting.

#20 Cheyna Matthews

Reasons to keep: Was terrific off the bench as a change of pace substitute striker.

Reasons to not keep: She could end up being a victim of the numbers game at forward, and might relish a chance to get regular starts somewhere else. I don’t think Racing would hold her back if she wanted to try a new team.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: This one is a coin flip. I think if Cheyna wants to return to Louisville, she will be here.

Protect? No. San Diego might take her. In fact, if I was predicting the full expansion draft, this is the pick I think San Diego would use.

#21 Shelby Money

Reasons to keep: It’s entirely possible that Racing loses either Betos or Lund, so I think she will be here as at least the 3rd keeper.

Reasons to not keep: She will surely have to beat out a few trialists in training camp.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: This one is a coin flip, too and will depend on how she does in camp.

Protect? No.

#22 Katie McClure

Reasons to keep: She showed real progress in the last quarter of the season.

Reasons to not keep: The numbers game at forward puts her at risk.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think she beats back some of the competition and makes the squad, so 70%

Protect? No.

#23 Katie Lund

Reasons to keep: She is tall, agile and already a folk hero at Lynn Family Stadium. If she wins the competition in camp, Racing can pencil her in at goalkeeper for several years.

Reasons to not keep: She isn’t Michelle Betos. If she doesn’t win the starting keeper competition this year, Racing might be able to placate her with a few more matches, but she needs to start somewhere in the league soon. Racing drafted her ahead of Betos in the expansion draft last year, so they ultimately think she is the answer in goal, but I don’t know how long she will be willing to wait.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think there is an 85% chance she is on the roster next year, just like Betos.

Protect? No. I think Racing rolls the dice and doesn’t protect either her or Betos hoping that they can keep both, but knowing that if they lose one, that they have the other.

#26 Addisyn Merrick

Reasons to keep: Racing selected her #1 overall in the 2020 NWSL Expansion Draft. In her brief time on the field, she showed why they did. Reliable CBs aren’t easy to find.

Reasons to not keep: She spent just about all of last year injured. I think Racing were toying with the idea of a back 3 until she got injured. She was at the NWSL Final without the walking boot that she had been wearing recently, so hopefully she’s ready to go in 2022.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: Racing think a lot of her, so they won’t be willing to let her go without seeing what she can do on the field. >99%

Protect? I would and I think Racing will too.

#27 Vanessa Kara

Reasons to keep: If you read my article on Kara on the Beautiful Game Network, you know that she is a fighter and I would never count her out.

Reasons to not keep: Numbers. Vanessa got virtually no meaningful playing time and Davis and Goins will surely be even more competition for playing time.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I can’t see a realistic path to her making the roster in 2022. <1%

Protect? No.

#33 Jorian Baucom

Reasons to keep: Has shown that she can score in cup competitions. She seems to like to press in the team’s preferred style.

Reasons to not keep: She is going to be a victim of the numbers at forward. I felt like she and McClure were battling each other for playing time all year. If you had asked me in late August, I would have said that Racing would have kept Jorian over Katie, but Katie’s late season production changed my mind. I will say this. If she makes the roster through all of the competition during camp, she will have earned more minutes than she got this year.

Chance of being on 2022 Roster: I think its low but not minuscule, so 20%.

Protect? No.

This means my projected protection list in order of certainty is:

1. Fox

2. Nadim

3. Bonner

4. Salmon

5. Kizer

6. McCaskill

7. Nagasato

8. Merrick

9. Otto

I feel absolutely certain about 1-6. As for 7-9 I could see Lund being protected over Otto, Riehl over Merrick, or Ekic protected over Yuki. Hopefully as soon as I publish this Racing work out a trade with San Diego.

Michael Shaw 11/18/21 Michael Shaw 11/18/21

Tidbits from Media Day at the NWSL Final

I got the opportunity to participate in Media Day for the NWSL Final. Most players were made available for the media and I got the chance to talk to most of them. Here are the highlights:

“I think the emotions might even be higher this time,” was the response when I asked Red Star defender Arin Wright about the big stage being in her home state. Earlier this year she said she was moved to tears playing in Lynn Family Stadium for the first time as a professional. Here is Mayor Fisher chatting with Arin as her son Grady plays close by. Aww!!!

Upon hearing tbe news that ticket sales had reached 10,000 all of the players I talked with were excited to be able to play in front of a large crowd. Spirit midfielder Andi Sullivan was especially excited for the crowd in such an “intimate” setting stating, “There's nothing better than playing in a stadium that's full.”
Chicago arrived Wednesday and had the early practice at Racing's facilities at Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training. Washington flew in on Thursday and went to training pretty much right after the flight landed.
After Media Day ended, the Spirit players and staff received a tour of Churchill Downs (the Kentucky Derby Museum hosted media day) and got to see a race.
Three Spirit players received NWSL awards and were presented them at Media Day: Trinity Rodman-Rookie of the Year, Aubrey Bledsoe-Goalkeeper of the Year, and Ashley Hatch-Golden Boot. Rodman on what winning thr award meant to her: “Throughout the season that's the goal I've been striving for. Being named Rookie of the Year…the biggest thing is improvement and I think throughout the season, that's what I've done and my team has definitely helped me improve.”
Cincinnati native Aubrey Bledsoe bought 40 tickets for her friends and family, so expect a large cheering section for her.
Several players asked who I would be rooting for. I didn’t commit, but did say I could be swayed by sitting so close to the Spirit's bench.
For me, the key match-up will be Rodman v Wright. Not to give too much away, but Wright definitely has a plan on how to play against her.
Red Stars coach Rory Dames and I talked tactics a bit. Chicago has been successful playing without the ball all year. According to Dames, “There's spaces where we want the ball, and spaces where we're OK not having the ball.” It was interesting to hear him say that the goal at the beginning of the year was to possess the ball more, but obviously the strategy evolved to fit the team. That is something not all clubs, ahem, are willing to do.

More coverage to come on Friday.

Michael Shaw 11/8/21 Michael Shaw 11/8/21

The NWSL has a stats problem

I have written several times on here about statistical measures. xG is a frequent target of my skepticism, but frankly any data other than points, goals and cards (although sometimes even those) are is up for wide interpretation. Racing recently quoted that per Statsbomb, that Emily Fox led the league with 115 interceptions. The previous sentence as written is 100% true. In Bekki Morgan's profile of Emily Fox, to which I contributed, I stated “Fox was the team leader in interceptions with 46, which also put her in the top 10 in the league in that category.” While I should have quoted my source (fbref.com), that statement was also 100% true. Therein lies the problem. How many interceptions did Emily Fox have last year? The answer is “it depends” which is probably the most frustrating answer in the English language.

Opta, which is a very trusted source defines an interception as “where a player reads an opponent’s pass and intercepts the ball by moving into the line of the intended pass.” StatsBomb doesn't publish a strict definition, but says here “This is where a player reads an opponent’s pass and intercepts the ball by moving into the line of the intended pass.” Those definitions seems virtually identical in my mind, so why the discrepancy?

Here is where I move into the realm of educated guesswork. My best guess is that the key is the word “read”. Think about interceptions like this. Did the player intend to intercept (read) the pass, or just get end up with the ball? Again, I am guessing here but, I think for there to be such a wide range in the reported numbers, the 46 inceptions I reported are instances where the evaluator (we'll come back to this) determined that Emily Fox made an intentional effort to step into the path of a pass. The 115 number reported by StatsBomb surely has some “possession gained” numbers in the “interception” category. The possessions gained numbers includes (typically) tackles, aerial duels won, interceptions, blocked crosses or shield outs. It probably also includes some “ball recoveries” where a player picks up a ball that is deemed not to belong to a specific player by the evaluator. The other option which I think and hope is unlikely is that maybe one of the sources is just wrong.

All of this is to say that we as fans are at the mercy of the evaluators and the stats suppliers when it comes to numbers. My background is in math and engineering. I want to believe in data and numbers. However, I still trust my eyes more when it comes to soccer. I was originally going to write a stats review of this season, but now I don't really see the point. There is a concept in measurement system analysis that is called Gage repeatability and reproducibility (GR&R). From ASQ It is defined as the process used to evaluate a gauging instrument’s accuracy by ensuring its measurements are repeatable and reproducible. The process includes taking a series of measurements to certify that the output is the same value as the input, and that the same measurements are obtained under the same operating conditions over a set duration. Basically, for our purposes can an evaluator replicate observations under the same conditions and would a similarly trained but different evaluator come to the same conclusion as the other evaluator. The general rule in measurement system analysis, is that until the evaluators (instruments) are appropriately calibrated, the measurement system is suspect. THIS HAS BEEN MY MAJOR ARGUMENT AGAIN xG. It has now reared its ugly head in regards to basic data.

None of this is to say that you shouldn't pay attention to the numbers or statistics. You absolutely should if you are interested. I am just issuing a warning label. Racing Louisville had pretty transparent intentions when quoting the 115 league leading interceptions number for Emily Fox. Racing and I both want to put Emily Fox in the best light (although I personally believe Trinity Rodman is the Rookie of the Year). My warning is that until there is a league standard source for NWSL statistics, consider your reporting source and if your eyes told you a different story, don't necessarily dismiss your own, sometimes better, judgment.

Michael Shaw 11/5/21 Michael Shaw 11/5/21

Fleur-de-lis-fc.com Player of the Year

If you follow Racing Louisville FC on Twitter you know that the club uses #RunWithUs as their hashtag. Ironically when I chose my player of the year, I went with the player least likely to run.

“When I found out that the goalkeeper didn’t have to run, I threw my name in the hat and never really looked back.” That is Michelle Betos commenting on her desire to avoid running from an early age. She started playing soccer on a boys team with some of her school friends around age five. When Michelle injured her hand last month, which caused her to miss the final 3 matches of the season, Coach Sanchez jokingly asked her what other position she wanted to play. She told him, "honestly, they all look terrible.”

Luckily for Racing, Michelle Betos is most comfortable in the 18 yard box. She started all 4 matches in the preseason Challenge Cup and 20 league matches, which was the most number of matches and highest number of minutes she has played in her 13 year professional career. She led the NWSL in saves and saves per match. While this is not necessarily a statistic in which you want your goalkeeper to lead the league, it shows her value to this very young team.

Also a tremendous value to this young team was having Michelle as captain. A captain's responsibilities often go beyond the field and her leadership was definitely needed this season. Racing went through the growing pains that all expansion teams do, but Racing had to endure the unique hardship of starting their existence during a pandemic. They also lost their head coach who was fired for cause and stood up for their own safety as reports of abuse by coaches and others around the NWSL started to surface. Michelle told me that is was an honor to be the captain during such a difficult season.

Michelle's on the field leadership was just as evident during the season. Most teams prefer to have their captains to be outfield players to make it easier for the captain to get into the referee's ear if needed, but Michelle was the perfect captain for this team, especially early in the season. Racing were competitive in each of their first 6 matches and won 1, drew 2, and lost a match by a single goal in their first 4 home matches. This may seem like a small thing, but being competitive early helped build the fan base. By all statistical measures Racing should have lost the May 21st match against the Washington Spirit, but were able to hold on scoreless for 75 minutes mainly due to Betos. Ekic and Kizer got the goals but the win belonged to Betos. Of course she will say this was a team win, but in my mind that match is a blow out loss without her. Getting that victory early earned Racing enough good will with fans to survive a rough patch on the road that shortly followed. I'm fact, the only bad home performance the entire year was a late season loss to Houston by 4 goals. Betos took that loss particularly hard and had a long conversation with goalkeeper coach Sergio Gonzalez after the match about 10 feet away from me. I stupidly told her to keep her head up after that conversation, which I'm sure was the last thing she wanted to her, but she smiled and said thanks. That loss eliminated Racing from the playoffs and those are always tough losses to take. Regardless, she stuck around to talk to fans as she always does, setting an example for the younger players.

I also asked Betos how much longer she was planning on playing, and was delighted with her answer which basically was that she was going to play until the game stopped being fun. She said that this was definitely aided by the club’s recently announced fertility preservation services. She also stated that she will almost certainly take advantage of these services during the offseason. After her playing career is over she would like to continue a career in soccer, hopefully as a high level goalkeeper coach.

There's one more thing about not liking to run. It means you're not afraid to stand your ground. In her own words, “I think I was born to take shots off the body and I’ve always been fearless. I have never been scared to throw my body on the ground or in front of a shot. I don’t remember ever being scared of any of that.” I thank her for her fearlessness.

Michael Shaw 11/2/21 Michael Shaw 11/2/21

October Players of the Month

Each month I will conduct a Twitter poll to let people vote on the Player of the Month. I will pretend to consider input from this poll then award the honor precisely to who I think deserves it.

This month, I couldn't decide if I wanted to reward a fantastic single game display or consistently great play over the Month (and frankly the season). Ebony Salmon's performance in the 3-1 victory against Orlando was the offensive performance of the year in my opinion, with Ebony scoring a fantastic equalizer and assisting on the other two goals. I do want to point out the other goal contribution that she made which you can see in the video below.

Watch her run drag one defender away from the middle and temporarily wrong-foot the other just long enough for McClure to easily play the ball to Kizer who then slots in home. This kind of thing never shows up on the stat sheet, but for that specific goal increased the probability that it would be scored. Sometimes strikers are just as effective as decoys.

As for Kizer, she secured draws in both matches versus Gotham. You saw the first goal above and the other was an excellent and probably unsavable penalty. CeCe has been the most consistent offensive force all season in a multitude of roles. It's kind of fitting that she scored Racing’s first and last goals in competitive matches this season.

Coincidentally, Ebony was the leading scorer for the season in league matches with 6 and Kizer was the leader in all competitions with 7. Congratulations to both Ebony and CeCe for great seasons.

Michael Shaw 10/31/21 Michael Shaw 10/31/21

Gotham 1 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts

I make no apologies for my previous post. I almost never pick a picture before I write a blog entry, but on my previous post match analysis, I did. It was a raw, emotional entry. To close out the season however, I am removing the kid gloves. Now that the first season is over, the expansion label comes off.

Don't misconstrue me. My lavender tinted glasses remain intact. The kid gloves are coming off for the rest of the league.

Put simply…Racing are coming for you.

They are coming for your points. Racing has now recovered points in an away match, and only recovering the full 3 remain on their to do list. If you think you can pencil in an easy 3 points for your home match against Racing next year, think again, Racing will go home with all 3. Forget about points at the Fam. It is a fortress.

They are coming for your players. Almost every current NWSL player has now gotten to see the best stadium in the NWSL and the best facilities. When the CBA gets passed with surely some sort of free agency included, Louisville will be a top destination.

They are coming for your respect. By the end of next season, teams will dread seeing the name “Racing” on the schedule. The other teams will know that win, lose or draw, Racing is going to fight for the full 90 minutes. By year 3 that respect will turn to fear.

And then following that, they are coming for your trophies…all of your trophies. They will fight tooth and nail for cups, shields and championships. Other teams might as well not even bother with trophy cabinets.

How will they do this, the doubters might ask. They will do it through identity. The identity forged in this inaugural is one of a team who will never quit. So many times this team could have packed it in. They lost one of their best players on a questionable foul. They went through losing streaks, losing a coach, and decisions on league rules that seemed to directly spit in their faces. None of this broke them. It made them stronger. It is true that this team will lose players and gain players in the off-season, but an identity is forged on your crest. That crest has an identity. One of my favorite football quotes comes from Arsenal great Tony Adams, “Play for the name on the front of the shirt, and they will remember the name on the back.” I will remember the name of every player who donned a Racing uniform this year. Each in their own way have forged the crest that will soon strike fear in the hearts of opponents.

So let it be said, Racing are coming.

“They are so young.”

Racing are coming.

“They don't have any star players.”

Racing are coming.

“No one wants to play in Louisville, Kentucky.”

Racing are coming…and they’re coming soon.

I can't wait for next season!

Michael Shaw 10/29/21 Michael Shaw 10/29/21

Racing 1 Gotham 1 Post Match Thoughts

I’m going to start this season’s last home post match analysis with a couple of confessions. The first one is that this picture from EM Dash Photography made me cry. I'm not quite sure why it hit me so hard all of a sudden, but I am going to miss writing about this particular team. No other future achievement will minimize the fact that I loved this team for being first, fierce and and fun. Having started this site because Racing was the first top tier professional franchise in Louisville since 1976 and wanting to record their history, I have been so heads down in writing that I didn't realize how emotionally connected I had become. Several times in my life as a fan I have found myself angry, sad, elated, apathetic and nervous while watching one of my favorite teams. I have felt an emotional connection with my favorite teams before, but not like this. Losses would ruin my day. I bailed on one nameless franchise because I was tired of the losing. I switched alliances based on moving to Louisville for college. I gave up on baseball when it turned into math for me. Basically I purged my childhood teams. It gave me the ability to watch a sport without it ruining my day based on the outcome. I adopted Arsenal as my main interest because they were (at the time) good, fun to watch and distant. I could enjoy the positive things about them and kind of let the negative ones roll off my back. I watched the NBA and NFL with rooting interest, but not a favorite team. Even Lou City who I have followed fairly closely has lacked that emotional connection. I expected to be able to maintain emotional distance from Racing, because I had become a pro at compartmentalizing sports from the rest of my life. I said I was going to cover the team as a “fan”, but really I was covering it as journalist who could be lazy in his writing by calling himself a fan. However, over the course of the season that began to change. It was so gradual that I didn't even notice it myself. I had become fully emotionally invested again. However, this time I had learned to only take the good parts of that investment. This is going to sound odd as a fan, and I am sure it will change in future years, but the results of the matches didn't matter to me. Well, at least not like they used to matter. A Racing loss has never ruined my day, but a win sure has brightened it. I have enjoyed every minute, especially at home matches.

Now for the second confession: I probably didn't watch last night's match as closely as I could have. My friend George who I share LouCity season tickets with came to his first Racing game. We talked just about the entire match. I didn't miss any game action, but I probably missed some nuances. I hate that I missed Lance McGarvey calling out Carli Lloyd's yellow card. I will try to find decent audio of that. Also, I asked both Racing and Gotham content creators if they thought the 1-1 result was fair. Everyone pretty much agreed that is was, but with Gotham having a slight advantage. A quick look at the numbers show this, but I now have a full blown lavender tinted glasses problem. I can’t be objective, at least not in real time. The xG charts, which I frankly still oscillate on with regards to their usefulness are likely going to show a 2-1 advantage for Gotham. I don't care. It felt in real time that Gotham wasn't the least bit dangerous in the second half at all, but like I said I may have missed something.

As for the overall play, I was most pleased with McClure and Kizer up front and Riehl and Bonner at the back. Lund was solid as was the rest of the team. If you read my column with Zach Allen-Kelly for the State of Louisville this week you know he predicted over 50% turnover. I guess that's possible, but 30-40% feels more realistic to me.

And finally, that may be another reason I cried when I uploaded the picture above. Some of these players will never wear a Racing jersey in Lynn Family Stadium again. At some point this offseason my heart will harden a bit and I will predict who will be elsewhere next season. Right now I can't bear to lose a single one.

Michael Shaw 10/27/21 Michael Shaw 10/27/21

Racing v Gotham/Gotham v Racing Preview

It seems pointless to do a preview of the same match twice, so this will serve as a preview for both matches. Gotham need 2 points to guarantee a playoff spot and are still in the running to get a first round bye. It's a little tricky to manage a quick Thursday/Sunday turnaround. If you are Gotham's coach Scott Parkinson you have to decide if you want to try to go all out on Thursday to get 3 points and play the rematch on Sunday without as much pressure, or hold back knowing that you might get a weaker Racing lineup on Sunday. Parkinson has said point blank that he isn't afraid to rotate according to Jersey Sporting News reporter Jenna Tonelli. Jenna thinks that Lloyd will play on the short turnaround. I suspect that Racing will go for its strongest available lineup (which will not include Betos who is going to miss the last two matches with a wrist injury) on Thursday for the home match and look to rotate heavily on Sunday. I could definitely envision some regular starters not even making the trip to New Jersey. On the other hand I am almost always wrong about line ups.

Racing also has incentive to get 3 more points to break Orlando's point accumulation percentage record for an expansion team. However, this is a much lower incentive than making the playoffs. The previous two matches between these teams have ended in a scoreless draw in the Challenge Cup and a 1-1 draw in the league with neither match being particularly memorable. Gotham isn't exactly a dynamic offensive juggernaut, but is usually fairly solid on defense.

Emily Fox just played a full 90 mintues on Tuesday for the USWNT. If I were in charge, I would wrap her in bubble wrap and sit her for the last two matches. There's no need to risk any kind of late season injury to “the franchise”. However, I don’t think coaches tend to think like this, so I expect to see Fox get the start on Sunday in New Jersey. Barring any unexpected additions to the injury report, on Thursday look for an Ashley-Bonner(fingers crossed)-Riehl-Simon backline, an Otto-Milliet-McCaskill midfield and a Yuki-CeCe-Jorian front three. On Sunday my prediction would be a Fox-Hendrix-Martin-Miramontez, Olofsson-McCaskill-Milliet, and Matthews-Salmon-McClure line-up. Of course, this will almost certainly be wrong.

Since I am probably going to be rooting for Gotham in the playoffs, let's say that both teams get what they want with each winning their home match. This scenario won’t move Gotham up to second, but an OL Reign win or draw with KC (who are announcing their permanent name on Saturday) likely eliminates that possibility anyway.

Michael Shaw 10/17/21 Michael Shaw 10/17/21

Racing 3 Pride 1 Post Match Thoughts

I am really looking forward to Arielle Dror's Race Plot and Pass Network for this match. I took a quick look at the stats last night, expecting a dominant Racing performance, but that’s not what the raw numbers said. Racing won the shot and shot on target battle, while losing with respect to the passing and possession numbers. Regardless of what the analysis ends up telling me, I will believe that for the last two thirds of the match Racing was in complete control. Going back through a quick review of the highlights reminded me that Alex Morgan missed a really good chance, but besides that I don’t remember any particularly threatening attack from Orlando, especially after going behind 2 goals.

There were quite a few tidbits from last night that probably work best in bullet point form.

The Katies got to start together for the first time and their mothers were in attendance. I talked for a few minutes after the match to Mrs. Lund and she could definitely provide insight as keen as anything I write on here. Sometimes we forget that athletes are human. Seeing their parents at matches reminds us that the desire to ask “Mom, did you see it?” never truly goes away.
Racing achieved a few goals that at least I had for the team. They gained a point from losing position for the first time. The won a match in which they trailed. They won their 20th point of the season which is a record for an expansion franchise. There is one more achievement that 3 points from the last 2 matches will secure and that is the highest point percentage of any expansion team. Orlando won 31.6% of their total points (19 out of 60) in their first year. To beat it Racing will have to make it to 23 out of 72 (31.9%).
Ebony Salmon needed to score for her confidence, in my opinion. She did and then went on to put on the performance of the season. Once that ball found the back of the net, she celebrated like a weight had been lifted from her shoulders. Her 2 second half assists said more to me than the goal, because they were the result of playing instinctual football and not over thinking. She will have this night to carry her confidence forward into the off season regardless of what happens in the next two matches.
With both Betos and McCaskill not playing meant the captain's armband went deservedly to Yuki Nagasato. Yuki's value to the team was often missed by me early in the season. She often settles down play which in certain situations seems negative, but in last night's match was just what the team needed. You can see that she chooses her opportunities for making a forward run wisely. She made a perfect decision last night and was rewarded with her 2nd league goal of the season.
My friend Susan wanted me to advocate for more warm beverage opportunities in the stadium for colder nights. I heard that maybe the Shelbygrille Road concessions by sections 204 and 224 had hot chocolate. If anyone knows for sure, please @ me on Twitter. The next match and the NWSL final are likely to be on the cold side.
Mario Sanchez got to claim his first victory. Like I said before, I am almost positive that when the season is over that he will return to his previous role as Academy Head. Being able to do so with a victory on his resume will make that transition a bit easier because he will have concrete evidence of his contribution to the team, although he doesn't really need it. The players have said that he has been great.
There may be an addendum to this post once I take a look at the Pass Network from last night. I tweeted before the match last night “Different look tonight.” It was and the play seemed a bit different too. I will see if it plays out visually on the Pass Network chart.

Michael Shaw 10/16/21 Michael Shaw 10/16/21

Racing 3 Pride 1 Player Ratings

It's a welcome return to the victory column tonight for Racing and it's as good a time as any to return to the Player Ratings post. By the way, both of the Katies’ moms were in the stadium tonight and got to witness good performances from their daughters.

Lund-7: Despite conceding an early goal, was rarely troubled after that. Her distribution was good on both long and short passes.

Fox-8: Back in her familiar left back role, she looked as comfortable and confident as ever.

Martin/Riehl-7: The centerback pairing got off to an uneasy start conceding a goal early, but after that looked assured and comfortable in possession.

Ashley-7: Looks more confident with each start.

Otto-8: Once again completed over 80% of her passes and looks so comfortable on the ball.

Millet-7: Had a decent effort that was slightly off target and played effectively in the role usually occupied by McCaskill.

McClure-8: Her flashes of talent in previous matches finally paid off tonight in her best effort in a Racing kit to date.

Kizer-7: Had a couple of shots and completed 3 dribbles which was a match high.

Yuki-8: So calm and steady in possession in her night as captain. Finished the night with a goal and an assist.

Salmon-9 (Player of the Match): Hit the equalizer with skill and conviction at the end of the first half, had an assist on Yuki's goals and a vital touch on Katie's. She needed a good performance for her confidence and I don’t think you could have asked for a better one.

I will dig more into this tomorrow, but I thought Racing dominated the final 70+ minutes of the match and completely outmatched Orlando in the 2nd half. It may have been the best performance of the season.

Michael Shaw 10/15/21 Michael Shaw 10/15/21

Racing v Pride Preview

With a victory on Saturday, Racing Louisville can eliminate the Orlando Pride from playoff contention. If Racing do come away with a win or draw, they will have done so with several key players out:

D ADDISYN MERRICK (OUT/SEI)

F NADIA NADIM (OUT/SEI)

D GEMMA BONNER (OUT)

F SAVANNAH McCASKILL (OUT - SUSPENDED)

D JULIA ASHLEY (QUESTIONABLE)

McCaskill is out due to a one game suspension for an accumulation of 5 yellow cards this season. This likely means we will once again see Emily Fox (newly recalled to the USWNT) in midfield again. I asked her about her favored position after practice on Thursday and she said that she enjoyed the midfield even though she's only played there twice for Racing. She was also pretty clear that she would play wherever the need dictates, both for Racing and the USWNT. It will be interesting to see if she ends up playing completely different positions for club and country going forward.

Once again the biggest test in my opinion will be how Racing performs without Bonner anchoring the defense. If previous matches are an indication the answer is “not well”. Maybe with a little more match time together the group will play more as a cohesive unit. The availability of Julia Ashley could throw a monkey wrench into those plans. In fact, if Ashley isn't available, Coach Sanchez may decide that he needs Fox out wide. If that is the case, I think we could see Olofsson and Otto play 90 minutes together.

Coach Sanchez said something interesting after practice yesterday in regards to playing time. He basically said that even though Racing are eliminated from the playoffs, playing time is still earned on how the player is performing in practice. I think at least for this match that Coach Sanchez will start his best available XI.

Obviously the other big news from this week is that Louisville will be hosting the NWSL final. Racing is expecting a potential record crowd on Saturday evening. Attendance has been really good this year, but a sellout or near sellout of Lynn Family Stadium for the final would do a tremendous amount of good for both Racing and LouCity. If CBS can show a full Stadium on Saturday, November 20th it will be a great potential recruiting tool for players both on the men’s and women’s team. Tickets are on sale now and I encourage anyone who can to buy tickets. The pricing is very affordable!

Michael Shaw 10/13/21 Michael Shaw 10/13/21

Racing Pass Networks with Arielle Dror

If you read this blog on a regular basis, you have surely read about my feeling about the teams collective passing performance and positioning being the key to their success. I have recently become fascinated with the work of Arielle Dror on Twitter. If you don’t follow Arielle, you absolutely should. Arielle is s data scientist who works with American Soccer Analysis. If you are a regular Twitter user you are probably familiar their data being used for g+ GameFlow charts or many other xG models. Since Benton from VamosMorados.com has covered xG in depth, I wanted to focus on the charts that Arielle creates.

I have mentioned on this blog at least a few times and definitely on Twitter that I am not a big fan of xG. I am not a huge detractor of the measure either, I just don’t find the way in which it is typically presented particularly useful if you watched the match. (Almost everyone else I respect and have spoken to about xG like Arielle, Benton and Zach-Allen Kelly disagrees). The exception to this is Arielle’s xG “Race Plots” which are presented on a graph with match time on the x-axis and cumulative xG on the y-axis. Her graphs are annotated with the actual goals shown at the point in time with the corresponding xG value for the shot that led to the goal. The other cool feature is the win probability chart on the bottom. I believe that Arielle told me that this was based on a set number of simulations based on the xG values from the match. Here is the xG plot from Racing’s most recent match:

You can see that Racing had a 5% chance of winning the match based on simulations using the xG values for the shots in the match. All of this is a bit of a preamble and context setting to get to what I really want to talk about and that is Arielle’s fascinating Pass Networks.

If you have ever worked in a technology or technical/process discipline you have probably come across a network diagram. These diagrams are often shown to demonstrate “flow”. That flow can be materials, people, knowledge, data, etc. Several analysts and data scientists like Arielle have started to use network diagrams as a template for Pass Network visuals. These charts are a fascinating way at examining a team’s positioning and passing. Let’s take a look at the Pass Networks from the same match.

The Spirit’s Pass Network is typical of a team that performed well in my opinion. Pass Network are built using goals added (g+). These values measure a player’s on-ball contribution in attack and defense. For more on g+ visit American Soccer Analysis here. The nodes on the charts represent the players and are based on their “average” position on the field when getting a touch. The size and color of the node are based on the player’s frequency of touch and the value of those touches. “Edges” are the line segments and represent connections of greater than 5 passes, with the thickness of the edge representing the frequency. Now I want to venture into the unscientific part of the analysis. Most people will tell you there is a bit of art and science in any analysis. To my mind, a Pass Network should mimic your formation and playing philosophy. For example most Pass Network charts that I have seen have a nice diamond or sideways “kite-like” shape. I wouldn’t go so far as to call this optimal, but it is definitely typical. Examining this particular Pass Network tells me a few things:

1. The Spirit preferred their attacking right hand side. There are more nodes there and the widest nodes are on the bottom half of the chart.

2. Several players completed over 5 passes to a wide variety of players. For example, Kelley O’Hara had a connection with 7 other players where she passed or was passed to by the other player.

3. I may have under valued Trinity Rodman’s contribution to the Spirit. While I still think she need to work on her finishing, she was a vital cog in the build up to the goals. The red color on her node is a positive value and is due to her two assists in the match.

As a point of contrast here is Racing’s Pass Network from the same match:

Here are the things that jump out at me from this chart:

1. Erin Simon and Cheyna Matthews basically only received or passed the ball through single routes with Kaliegh Riehl and Yuki Nagasato respectfully. Any connections with other players would have involved fewer than four passes.

2. There are much fewer passing triangles in the Racing’s chart. Almost every Spirit player was involved in multiple passing triangles. In Racing’s chart none of the forwards was really involved in a passing triangle at all.

3. Racing’s chart looks disconnected at points, demonstrated by a couple of edges that dead end. Washington’s chart seems connected at all points.

4. There was virtually no passing in the direction of play that I would classify as wide to center. Effective play in my opinion utilizes playing the ball from wide players into the central ones especially in attack. Look at the chart below from Racing’s match vs. North Carolina. You will see what effective wide play looks like, especially from Carson Pickett. You will also notice that even though she is at left back, Carson’s average position was in the attacking half.

For a comparison, here is Racing’s Pass Network for the same game and the less said about it the better:

These are basically pictorial representations of a few of my main issues with Racing’s play. They don’t utilize the width of the field effectively, especially in attack and their forwards are often isolated and not involved in much build up play. In Racing’s better performances, you can definitely see better Pass Networks. Let’s take a look at three of Racing’s better performances: a 0-3 win at Chicago, a 1-1 draw in Orlando and a 1-1 draw at home vs. OL Reign.

Let’s start off with the win in Chicago:

Honestly, this is a peculiar looking Pass Network at first glance. It looks like all of the play from the back came via the Martin/Fox/Olofsson connection. It’s definitely not a typical look of a winning Pass Network performance. On the other hand, there was definitely a direct Bonner/McCaskill/Millet connection that seemed to be effective in cutting through the heart of midfield and ignoring Racing’s weakness of wide play in the attacking half. Savanah McCaskill had the most valuable touches in the match which is denoted by the red-orange color of the node (1 goal, 2 chances created). Arielle pointed out to me the number of edges (7) coming from her node. This is a good example of a player dictating play.

For the 1-1 draw at Orlando:

This is a typical Pass Network that you seem from most teams. There are quite a few triangles and virtually no islands, bar the late appearance of Julia Ashley. You might also notice that a deep dropping Salmon was more involved that when she plays further up the field.

The last Pass Network is from the 1-1 Draw vs. OL Reign on September 4th.

Again, you will notice Salmon on her lonely island. Jorian Baucom, while connected seems only connected via two players. This Pass Network probably best shows Nadia Nadim’s impact. Her average position is in the 10 spot on the field. However, there are still quite a few disconnects in the network.

So, what is the take away from all of this? For me it would be interesting to know if data like this is being used by the team to evaluate performances. I think it is a great way to quickly see where your team’s passing strengths and weaknesses lie. For Racing, I hope that at least if the team is using this particular view, the analysis of passing will lead to an improvement in play next year.

I would like to say a very special thank you to Arielle Dror who supplied all of the charts in this post and who was kinds enough to review my thoughts and suggest a few edits. You should definitely follow Arielle on Twitter @arielle_dror.

Michael Shaw 10/10/21 Michael Shaw 10/10/21

Spirit 3 Racing 0 Post Match Thoughts

Racing are now officially eliminated from NWSL playoff contention. Saturday's loss was similar in scoreline to the last few losses, but the performance was improved.

Racing's top 3 draft picks in the 2021 NWSL College draft were for once all on the field and healthy. The 198 combined minutes played by Fox, Otto and Ekic were the most minutes played by the top 3 draft picks in a match. A few words on each:

Fox: Emily started in midfield for the second consecutive match and was just as effective in this role as she has been at left or right back. I believe that she will almost certainly start there again in the next match with McCaskill picking up her 5th yellow card of the season which requires her to miss the next match. As I said before, the decision on where she plays in the future will depend on need.

Otto: Taylor played a full 90 for the first time in her professional career. She looked solid on the ball and completed 86% of her passes. This was the first time that I have had the chance to see her play more than 45 minutes. It's easy to see why she is so highly regarded. I believe we might see a Fox, Otto, Olofsson midfield next match.

Ekic: Emina has been getting sporadic playing time, but in the last couple of matches has looked more like the player she did earlier in the season. I’m convinced that 2 of her shots would have found the back of the net if not for timely blocks by a Spirit player. Her other shot produced a nice save from Bledsoe.

Cheyna Matthews once again looked dangerous off the bench. In fact, the subs all looked sharp. I am not going to dwell on the negatives, but I will say the to some degree disorganization led to all three goals and leave it at that.

I still think this team has a few points left in them this year, but even if they don’t, they can be proud of how hard they have fought under difficult circumstances.

Michael Shaw 10/8/21 Michael Shaw 10/8/21

Spirit v Racing Preview

Racing (I believe) traveled directly from Cary NC to the DC area to play their second road match in 4 days. This would be a tough trip under any circumstances, but with the players minds rightly on issues other than soccer the trip has to be extra rough. I want to say a couple of things about the fans general response to the calls for change. I know that nobody wants to hear the word patience, but some of the changes that need to happen can't happen overnight. In fact, I would argue that in some cases, quick fixes are only band-aids. The things that can happen quickly should happen quickly like the firing of all abusers. What worries me a bit is that if you only fire the people in the system, the system recovers and persists. And guess what…systems cannot be fixed overnight. You can implement policies and procedures quickly, but convincing bad people to follow policy doesn't work. So I would ask for patience for some of the things that need to happen. Included in this is the desire for the public to know what happened in every situation. If the victim wants to come forward publicly then I am all for that, but there can not a priority put on the whole truth becoming public at the expense of the victim. Secondly, do not boycott this team. Only the players suffer in this scenario. Betos and McCaskill said publicly that they want fans at games. If this last week has soured your appetite I get it, but don’t take it out on the players. I believe and hope that the NWSL's investigation of Racing will prove them to have handled all situations appropriately.

Now on to soccer stuff. I don't yet know if the injury report is any different for Saturday, but I will post on Twitter as soon as I find out. With the club trying out a few new things on Wednesday, I expect to see some of the players who were rested (Betos, Nagasato, Baucom) back in the lineup. This late in the season I don’t think any injury will be risked, so I expect Kizer and Bonner to get rested again unless fully healthy. In these last few games I am less concerned by the score than the performance. After an uptick in the middle of the season, the passing accuracy and shots have dropped again. Over the last few matches in the season, I believe the focus will be on cleaning up the passing and creating more opportunities.

No predictions for the rest of the year. I might psych myself up for player ratings if there is a win, but if not I will probably forgo those until the season is over. Good luck to the team vs. Washington!

Michael Shaw 10/7/21 Michael Shaw 10/7/21

Courage 3 Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts

On a night where the actual game had much less meaning, it was difficult for me to be critical of any player. This made doing my normal player rating post virtually impossible. If you are interested in objective stat based player ratings you can visit Fotmob. I am going to stick to positives and neutral observations from the match in this post, for the most part. Bullet points feel like the right format.

Michelle Betos said in the post match interview that the plan was to have the players stop for 6 minutes in an effort to demonstrate how long 6 minutes is and to compare that length of time of inactivity to 6 years of silence from the league on improving player safety. Ultimately the players didn't think that they could handle those 6 minutes emotionally and then continue to play.
I found Kaylyn Klye's reactions during the Paramount Plus broadcast to be pure and honest. I found her emotional reactions refreshing and I wish that she didn't feel the need to apologize for expressing her genuine emotions.
In his post match interview, Coach Sanchez used the word “proud” frequently to express his feelings on how the Racing players have responded in the last few days.
Moving more to the on the field observations, Katie Lund made her NWSL debut and I thought she performed well, but she still has room to grow.
Emily Fox is what Racing has been missing in midfield: someone who can drive the team forward from the defending third to the attacking third in multiple ways. She can pick a pass to find a teammate, but maybe uniquely on this team can dribble effectively through the opponents midfield and create mismatches in attack by leaving defenders behind her. Racing will have to decide next year after the player movement/draft period whether the team's need is greater in midfield or at left or right back and assign Fox to the area of greatest need.
Emina Ekic finally looked like the player she did earlier in the season in her 30 or so minutes. She has been dealing with nagging injuries, so maybe those are behind her now.
I think it was important that Ebony Salmon get a full 90 minutes. This may be a coincidence, but she looked much more comfortable with Emina as a strike partner vs. Matthews. In the final 30 minutes she looked more sure of herself and played better in my opinion. The next Racing coach will be key to continuing her development.
McCaskill's goal was a fine piece of skill and quality made by it's much less cooler partner - hustle. Erin Simon's effort to recover he misplaced pass led directly to Savannah's opportunity. One of the things that I believe people miss in soccer is how much effort and hustle contribute to your ability to show your flair and quality. If you have a chance, check out the current Womens European champions Barcelona. I watched them tear through my Arsenal team on Tuesday. They were relentless. Arsenal may be the best team in England and they looked completely outmatched. Barcelona hustled to every ball. This is often an overlooked component in high pressing teams with as much quality as Barcelona. While their passing accuracy was a mind blowing 89% the more impressive thing to me is that they treated the 11% as an affront to their performance and looked to immediately recover their mistakes. To be fair, when only 11% of your passes are incomplete you can fight fiercely for every errant one. I think Racing's philosophy would like to mimic Barcelona's. My ill-informed suggestion would be to focus on the passing accuracy, then the pressing. Maybe this is what they are doing in practice, but the numbers haven't shown it in matches.
I don’t want to end on a downer, so I want to finish on a more positive note. In their post match interview Betos and McCaskill were firm on the players demands, but I thought they seemed optimistic on the opportunity for change. They also said, prompted by an excellent question from Becki Morgan, that the fans can help by amplifying their message. I would encourage everyone to spread their message for the need for accountability and change to as many people as possible.