Racing announces USL W League Roster

Today Racing Louisville publicly announced its 38-player roster for the USL W League season beginning in May. Racing’s first match is away vs. Detroit City on May 12th. There are several players with local ties and some high-profile names on the roster.

• Reining NCAA champions Florida State are well represented on the roster. Emily Madril is highly rated and was a projected first round pick in the 2022 NWSL before deciding to return to school. Clara Robbins was the ACC Tournament MVP and All-ACC Second team in 2021. Jenna Nighswonger appeared in all 25 matches and started 13 for Florida State in 2021.

• There are several current and former University of Louisville players on the team including Ravin Alexander, Anouk Denton, Sarah Hernandez, Hadley Snyder, Maisie Whitsett, Autumn Weeks, Savina Zamborini, Morgan Bentley, Addie Chester, Maya Maxwell, Patricia Ward, and maybe most familiar to Racing/LouCity Fans, Allison Whitfield whose sister Casey provides color analysis for LouCity’s radio coverage. Interestingly it looks like Allison will be attempted to convert to defense from her attacking role at Louisville.

• Unsurprisingly, there are several Racing Academy players on the team as well. The name most familiar to Racing fans in this group is likely Ella Sanchez. If the NWSL could get its act together around academy rules and behave like the rest of the footballing world, Ella Sanchez would likely already be in Racing’s First Team squad. Regardless, she has already made the bench for Racing in last year’s Women’s Cup Final and is a fixture in first team practices.

• There are a few other players with local connections like:

• Cierra Collins who played for Male High School and currently plays for Mississippi State

• Allie George who played for Sacred Heart Academy and currently plays for Virginia Tech

• Maddie Reed who played for Assumption and currently plays for Xavier

• Kacey Smekrud who played for Oldham County and currently plays for College of Charleston

• Mackenzie Tucker who played for West Jessamine in Versailles and plays for Xavier

The entire roster and press release can be found here.

Red Stars 2 - Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Racings suffered a tough season opening loss on Saturday evening/night in Chicago (well not IN Chicago, near Chicago). The Red Stars were down several key players, although they still have plenty of talent (maybe personal favorite Arin Wright will don a Racing Kit one day), so you would have liked to see Racing seize the opportunity to get points on the road. In the end, they couldn’t, mainly down to a couple of glaring lapses in concentration.

• Let’s start off with the alarming trend of Racing getting off to a slow start. I hope we never again see a worse minute of football than Racing put together to start the match. An errant pass from Lester to Fox went straight out for a throw. The throw led to the above-mentioned Wright getting into too much open space on the left side and taking a very dangerous shot that required an excellent save from Lund. Then Racing looked asleep on the ensuing corner and were down 1-0 within a minute. If you are a viewer of Premier League football at all, surely you have heard a former defender bemoaning “Zonal Marking” on corners. Hardly any team “man marks” their opponents any more on corners, but Racing’s defense last night was an indictment on zonal marking. Stevens was allowed to move freely in the box and credit to her, scored an excellent header. Bonner let Stevens move in front of her too easily and Racing trailed before a minute has passed. As well as Racing played the remainder of the match, that one minute let down ended up being crucial.

• On the second Chicago goal, Racing’s naivety caused them to be in trouble again. Olofsson committed a foul and instead of standing over the ball or kicking it a few yards away (something that I would do even in a meaningless pick-up game) she turned to argue with the official and left the ball unattended for a quick restart. A more veteran player probably would have grabbed the ball off the ground and then went to debate their case with the official. Long story short, if you are going to complain to the official, you better take every opportunity afforded you to stop play. I like to think of myself as a nice guy, but on the pitch I’m a jerk. I knock over anyone smaller than me and I never give the ball directly to an opposing player, frequently kicking it 5 yards away just to prevent them from getting an advantage. In my head it’s Competitiveness 101, but I’ve seen Racing play “nice” over their first couple of seasons and it has cost them goals. Nice is never going to score a goal for you.

• In much happier news, Racing dominated the rest of the match. If they continue to play this way, the points will come. In some ways Chicago is the perfect opponent for Racing to show off their high pressing style as the Red Stars want to play out from the back. As many educated pundits (a rare sight on an NWSL broadcast) will say however, “goals change matches”. That isn’t exactly earth-shattering news, but the meaning behind it is that the history of a match prior to each goal often becomes irrelevant as the next goal is scored. Racing was the better team when they were behind, after they tied the score, and after they trailed again. However, in the score line it didn’t matter. It’s sometimes difficult to tell if the possession numbers are more of an indication of when the goals were scored vs. the actual control of the match. The good news is that if Racing controls most of their matches like this, they will win their fair share. They just have to stop falling behind so early. I truly believed that Racing dictated the match, but it’s tough to tell how much Chicago let them do so. Regardless, you would always rather control the match vs. having it dictated to you.

• Emily Fox finally scored her first goal, and perhaps most impressive was her selfishness in scoring it. Sometimes Emily looks for the pass over the shot and did so earlier in this match. On her goal she correctly assessed herself as the best option, something I think maybe she hasn’t done in the past. I hope she continues to be selfish and shoot more.

• I don’t think Coach Björkegren yet knows his best XI, but if Ekic keeps playing like she did in the 60 or so minutes she got on Saturday night, he will be hard-pressed not to start her more. She probably needs to be a little more clinical in her finishing, but you can see her confidence growing.

• Like I said in my Player Rating post, Sav DeMelo is really starting to look like the player Racing assumed they would be getting in a fourth overall pick. Most surprising to me has been her flexibility. She almost opened her account too, but was cruelly denied by the post. For me, she has been the biggest early season positive surprise.

Red Stars 2 - Racing 1 Player Ratings

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Racing had a couple of mental lapses on defense and paid dearly for them in a match in which they dominated just about every statistic. It was a disappointing result, but if Racing can eliminate the mental errors, they will start to win matches like this.

Lund-6: Didn’t have much to do other than pick the ball out of her net twice. Her back line let her down on the two goals.

Fox-9 (Player of the Match): Finally got her first goal and should be looking for more now that she opened her account. She was the best player on the pitch tonight and it wasn’t close.

Bonner-6: Racing seemed surprised by Chicago’s early attack. Bonner has to do a better job of organizing on set pieces and getting the team ready from the first whistle.

Lester-7: Solid on the ball and looked assured going forward again.

Martin-5: Subbed off early in what I assume was a tactical decision.

Howell-6: Looks more assured in each match but was subbed off to get an extra attacker on in the form of Davis. Still led the team with 3 chances created.

Olofsson-6: Led the team with 93% passing accuracy, but gave up the free kick that led to the second Red Star Goal

DeMelo-7: I think we may be just beginning to see the form that caused Racing to select her 4th overall. Only Fox had more touches.

Milliet-6: Had the most passes in the final third, but has to be hearing Ekic’s footsteps in terms of the Starting XI.

Kizer-6: Created a couple of chances and had a few touches in the opposition box, but ultimately couldn’t trouble the keeper.

McDonald-6: Had 10 touches in the box but couldn’t make any of them pay off.

Ekic-8: In an alternate universe, probably scores multiple times on her 3 shots on target, but probably deserved at least one goal in this match.

Red Stars v Racing Preview

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Racing and the Red Stars face each other for the 3rd time in a month on Saturday evening. These teams have to be tired of seeing each other, especially since all of the recent matches have ended in a draw. In fact, it’s entirely possible that Racing won’t face a different team from who they faced in the Challenge Cup until May 18th if the OL Reign make the Challenge Cup finals. If that occurs, the first time Racing get to see a new opponent in 2022 will be a home match vs. San Diego Wave. Who knows…the Wave might even have actual kits by then!

Speaking of kits, Racing won’t debut their new away kits in Chicago. I think the Red Stars almost always prefer their white kit anyway. The new kit is about a good as it can be based on the stupidly paternalistic policy of having a single kit manufacturer and the restrictions that the league puts on the kits. I’m sure everyone has seen the kit by now, but here is a picture anyway. I like the lavender touches and the fully mint green shorts.

Courtesy Racing Louisville FC

Chicago (as every Racing fan will gladly tell you) has never beaten Louisville. Racing definitely has the bragging rights so far in the head-to-head matchups, but other than that very odd 3-0 victory by Racing in a weather delayed match in Chicago last year, most of the matches have been really even. The Red Stars injury report hasn’t become public at the time of writing this (and I may update this post when it becomes public), but I assume it will look much like last week which was rather lengthy. Racing only lists Nadim as unavailable. In other availability news, Alex Chidiac is rumored to arrive in town today. It will be too early for her to be in consideration for this match, but next week (if the OL Reign match happens) or definitely in a couple of weeks where Racing has 3 games in 9 days stretch should see Chidiac make her debut.

For one of the few times in recent memory, I didn’t attend a late week practice so that gives me the chance to wildly speculate as to what the line-up might be without having the benefit of any inside information. Based on recent history, here’s how I think Racing will line up:

But honestly, here’s the line-up I’m dying to see:

I still think Ebony Salmon is valuable to this team, but she needs service, and she needs minutes with the full first team. I think Coach Björkegren plays his cards close to the vest sometimes, so it wouldn’t be completely unreasonable to have him throw out a Starting XI we haven’t seen, but ultimately, I think he will go with something that looks like the first lineup. The biggest reason I think he will go with that lineup is that it’s probably his best pressing lineup and formation. To be fair, Salmon’s last two goals for Racing have come out of her pressing, but Coach Kim likely would not have that in the front of his mind. I think Racing have to do something different in this match to get all 3 points. The question is: does Björkegren want to risk the draw for the win?

Dash 2 - Racing 1 Post Match Thoughts and Challenge Cup Wrap-up

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Now seems like as good of a time at any to perform a bit of a self-assessment, so I created a post that talks about how the site will work going forward. You can read it here, or skip that and move straight to rest of the post below. On the linked page I basically outline what I will and won’t be doing (because others do it better) on this site moving forward. It is basically a guide for what and when to expect from a coverage perspective this season.

Racing wrapped up the 2022 Challenge Cup with a 3rd place finish in the Central Division and a record of 1 win 3 draws and 2 losses. There were stretches were Racing played well and stretches where they struggled. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into this last preseason performance, but here is what stood out to me.

• File this under “Painfully Obvious Observations”, but Racing is much better with Jessica McDonald on the pitch. We really haven’t seen much of McDonald and Salmon together which is a bit of a shame. Salmon’s performance last night mimicked a few of her rather forgettable performances last year where she seems to be completely isolated as the lone striker. She and Jess looked so good together in the first pre-season scrimmage of the year, it’s hard not to wonder if the flashes of brilliance we’ve seen from Davis and Ekic aren’t a bit down to having McDonald drag her defenders wide to open up a bit more space. Maybe we’ll be to see a Salmon/McDonald starting pairing at some point.

• I talked about this a bit in my player ratings, but I wonder if teams are starting to get a feel for Julia Lester. I believe she is a fine player, but her calmness and confidence may have cost Racing a goal. One thing I know for sure is that I wouldn’t be dwelling on the ball too long with Nichelle Prince bearing down on me. Either way, Lester surely learned that she will have to pick her spots to be able to dribble out of trouble.

• There were two mildly controversial decisions made in the match. Let’s start with the alleged “Goalie Interference” non-call. Goalkeepers are not made of glass and get way more protection from officials than I think they merit, so there is my bias stated up front. I still don’t think that was interference, but my beef is more with Racing’s outfield players on this one. I am going to give Gemma the benefit of the doubt on this one, as I assume it is her responsibility to get the defense organized for the set piece. Here is where you miss an Olofsson or a McDonald. Houston were basically allowed to crowd Bloomer with no real consequences. If I was a Racing player on the pitch that situation, one of those Dash players would firmly have my elbow in the small of their back before that kick is even taken. I would basically force one of the Dash players off the line, and basically force the official to come in and break up a scuffle. You see this in many other leagues. There is a bunch of flailing and nonsense before the kick is even taken. The freedom that the Dash players were given to crowd Bloomer was basically why you see these type of scuffles across soccer. You have to give the official a reason to act. If you are fine with letting your opponent crowd your goalie, what is the official supposed to do? Freja or Jess probably drags one of those players out of goal and causes the official to pay attention to the players encroaching on Bloomer’s space before the kick is taken. By the way, a completely reasonable person can disagree with this assessment and I wouldn’t take offense.

• The second mildly controversial decision was Lo Milliet being flagged for offside and having her goal disallowed. There are a couple of components to this one. First, the image chose to freeze and share on the CBS Sports Network broadcast was flat out wrong. If you are going to perform a forensic analysis of an offside decision like VAR, you have to get the first element right which is the offside decision starts from the playing of the ball. In the image shared on the broadcast, the ball has CLEARLY not be played yet. In VAR terminology, the review freezes the decision as the kick point. Kizer’s leg is clearly in midair in the frozen frame that CBS chose to use. I stated above that reasonable people could disagree with my assessment of the keeper interference decision. Anyone disagreeing that you can’t use the frame that CBS chose to use is wrong. It is also a part of a bigger issue for me. If you immediately except the information being presented to you without the slightest bit of scrutiny, be prepared to have an incomplete and sometimes incorrect perspective on the situation. All of that being said, it is absolutely criminal that the sideline official ruled that goal offside. Zach Allen-Kelly looked at a different frame (but again, it’s a judgement call due to the poor quality of the broadcast) and Milliet is very slightly offside by the slightest margin. Regardless, there isn’t an official alive that could make that determination in real time. It was so close that it was purely guesswork. Traditionally, the attacking player is given the benefit of the doubt and is assumed to be onside unless proven offside. It was a terrible call on the field that was probably factually correct.

• I have been looking forward to Parker Goins debut for a while and she didn’t disappoint. She was dangerous from the moment that she stepped on the pitch. More please, Mr. Björkegren.

• This is not breaking news, but the CBS broadcast was terrible. I don’t know what more to say about it. The commentary swings wildly from painfully obvious to highly irrelevant to blatantly wrong so frequently that the broadcast should come with a motion sickness warning. I suggest watching on mute. The camera work is flat out terrible as well, but that may be a quality of the camera issue over an operator issue. The NWSL is really limiting its growth by not improving the quality of these broadcasts.

Tom Benson was kind enough to write a season preview for me, so I will probably leverage his kindness to write my preview piece for the State of Louisville website, so watch for that this week.

Dash 2 - Racing 1 Player Ratings

It was generally a sloppy match, which is sometimes what you see with several changes and nothing really to play for. Racing won’t be pleased with the performance or the result, but got some game film on some players that should be helpful going forward.

Bloomer-6: Made a few good saves, but in my opinion had to do better to come for the ball, or at least force the official to make a call by fighting though the challenge a bit better. If you are a member of the goalkeepers’ union, I’m sure you think it was “interference”, but I think officials are hesitant to call that on the initial touch from a set piece.

Lester-5: As well as she played in her previous matches, you have to wonder if Houston was the first team to benefit from some film on her, which would have told then that she like to dribble her way out of trouble and therefore is susceptible to a double team. Prince pounced on a couple of mistakes, and made Racing pay dearly for one of them.

Bonner-7: Had a solid night, but maybe should have tried to clear out some of the bodies in front of the goal on the Dash’s second goal.

Fox-7: Solid again. I think she was subject to some rather bizarre criticism during the CBS broadcast, but I may have misheard because I try to tune out the banal commentary on the NWSL broadcasts.

Martin-6: Honestly was more involved in the attack than the defense, but had a solid night nonetheless.

Howell-8: Took her goal well and keeps getting better with each match.

DeMelo-7: Still playing deeper than I thought she would in the midfield, but it seems to suit her game.

Milliet-7: Played hard for the full 90. The fact that she wasn’t given some rest was a surprise, but I think Björkegren trusts her as much as any player on the team.

Salmon/Ekic/Gordon-5: Couldn’t get anything going as a forward attacking unit.

Davis/Goins/Kizer-6: Racing looked much more dangerous with this group on the field, but they couldn’t find a finishing touch. Based on the small sample, Goins needs more minutes.

Dash v Racing Preview

At the Racing season ticket holder Q&A session held at the Fifth Third Club at LFS last evening, one of the questions submitted was basically: Who is Racing’s biggest rival? After some thoughtfulness and thinking out loud, Freja Olofsson blurted out, “I don’t like Houston.” This is a sentiment shared by a large section of the Racing fanbase and broadly across the rest of the NWSL as well. Tom Benson refers to Houston as “The Dive”. The officials seem reluctant to penalize their poor behavior during matches, and Shea Groom was warned and fined after the match for this:

Yeah, Houston is not particularly well-liked or well-run. During his press conference today, Coach Björkegren said that while Houston has good players and a really high ceiling, he basically said that they also can perform very poorly.

Just how did this team get its only win in the Challenge Cup against Racing? Even Coach Kim seemed a little baffled by that when he watched film this week because he said that Racing looks like a different team now. Obviously giving away 3 goals in such a short amount of time isn’t good, but it’s also something unlikely to be repeated. Julia Lester had to sub in a left back for Emily Fox in that match. Now her partnership with Gemma Boner at center back seems fairly solidified and they have only conceded a single goal in 3 matches as a pairing.

Coach Kim also said that there were a few things that he didn’t like in his review of the game film vs. Chicago and that the team is going to review the footage from their 2-3 loss vs Houston earlier in the Challenge Cup. That should put everyone in the mood for revenge for their trip to Houston.

However, in the grand scheme of all things Racing, this match means next to nothing. It is hopefully the last meaningless match that the team will play this season. Having already been eliminated from the Challenge Cup, Racing can rotate some players into the Starting XI and get some rest before the season opener at Chicago and April 30th (who could potentially be looking forward to a semi-final match on May 4th.) Coach Björkegren pretty much confirmed that there would be some rotation, and for the fans in attendance at last night’s Q&A session, starting Jordyn Bloomer in goal would be a popular choice. Expect some changes, but not an “all-change” line up. Not all of the reinforcements have arrived in the form of Rebecca Holloway and Alex Chidiac, so I think it is safe to assume more rotation on the front line vs. midfield and defense, but we will see.

Racing Regular Season Preview: Tom Benson Version

Tom Benson is the co-host of Butchertown Rundown with Bekki Morgan and an indiscriminate nickname-giver for Racing Louisville FC. Tom also included this helpful blurb to promote himself: “Drunk Tom Benson sent this to me, and since he is friends with my friend Bekki I had to publish it. The following is best read while you are getting your oil changed or on the toilet.”

Confession time. I undertook the below analysis to try to win money. I’ve experimented with the idea of becoming a sports bettor as a hobby for about 15 years now, For the last 15 years whenever I’ve brought it up to my wife, she has calmly asked me to pick winners in 3-4 games. I have made my picks and promptly gotten every single one of them wrong. Every. Single. One. Experiment over. But this was new! The NWSL! I was going to be ahead of the curve this time! I began to go through each game in the league’s history and retroactively apply lessons learned in other sports leagues to see if they applied.  In the NFL, travelling across country affected team play. In the NBA? Days rest and numbers of games in days matter.  I set up a spreadsheet and got to analyzin’. After spending hours poring over the data, I came to the following conclusion: The better teams win. They win at home. They win on the road no matter the distance travelled. They win on short rest. They win after lengthy, rust-inducing, breaks. There is another step for me to take here, looking at expected margin of victory to see if the rest, travel, etc. caused the winning team to not win by as much.  Frankly though, that feels like an analysis for next year when Future Tom once again thinks about quitting his job to gamble.

Luckily though, this analysis provided some great insight into what Racing will need to do next year to reach their stated goal of making the playoffs. Club, Coach, Captain, everyone associated with the team states the same goal for the 2022 Season: Make the Playoffs. Gone are the days when “showing improvement” and “building a foundation” were the measures of success. This year it’s top 6 or bust. But how do they get there? How many points does the team need to accumulate by June to feel good in September?  It can be difficult to predict because the league has not had a consistent number of teams nor a consistent number of games in its history. Last year, 2021, there were 10 teams playing 24 games each. In 2015 9 teams played 20. In 2013 8 teams played 22. How can you compare apples to, well, different types of apples? I’m sure I’m not the first to use the metric I’m calling “Percentage of Points Taken” but I haven’t seen it used previously (possibly because other teams have had standard season lengths and numbers of teams.) The formulation is simple enough: if a team plays 20 games the maximum number of points possible is 60. If they end the year with 30 points, they are at 50% points taken. Using this metric retroactively back to 2013 (excluding all Challenge Cup competitions) the results are pretty consistent. The percentage of points taken for the last team to qualify for the playoffs were: 2021 NC Courage 46%, 2019 Reign FC 53%, 2018 Chicago Red Stars 51%, 2017 Chicago Red Stars 54%, 2016 Western New York Flash 53%, 2015 Washington Spirit 50%, 2014 Washington Spirit 49%, & 2013 Sky Blue FC 55%. And remember, these percentages are like giving the doorman $20 to get into a club. You get in the door, but someone else has the best table. The 2016 Thorns took 72% of their points, the 2014 Seattle Reign took 75%, and the 2017 Courage took 68%. Speaking of the Courage, last year’s playoff qualifying team is instructive because the top 6, rather than the top 4, made the playoffs. To add one more variable, it was the top 6 out of 10 teams – not top 4 out of 10 teams (2017, 2016) 4 of 9 (2019, 2018, 2015, 2014) or 4 of 8 (2013.)  In 2022 the top 6 of a 12-team league will make the playoffs. So, if the top half of the league makes it, what were the percentages of points taken for the top half of the league over the past 8 seasons? We know last year it was NC with 46%, in 2017 it was Seattle Reign at 47%, 2016 Seattle Reign at 50%, and in 2013 Sky Blue at 55%. For the years with 9 teams we’ve already listed the 4th place qualifier, but if they took the 5th place team it would have been 2019 Spirit at 47%, 2018 Utah Royals at 49%, 2015 Dash 40%, and 2014 Red Stars at 49%. 

To compare these performances with Racing inaugural campaign, in 2021 Racing’s % of Points Taken was 31%, so there is work to be done. This season the club will play 22 games, giving us a maximum possible point total of 66.  How many points do you feel they comfortable with to end up top 6?  Are you rolling with the 46% of points taken by the Courage? That would be 30.36. This is a good time to mention that if you take the average number of draws for each team in the league and average those averages (with apologies to Dr. Brenda Masters, my Statistics professor who decried taking an average of averages) you end up with each team averaging 24% of their season matches ending in a draw.  With 22 games on the schedule, we can estimate Racing will draw 5.28 games.  Now we’re getting somewhere. Let’s round down: If Racing needs 30 points and they draw 5 games they need to win 9 games to get there. And really, looking at the league historically, it’s tough to see a path to the top 6 winning less than 8 games. Winning 7 games means that to hit 30 points they’d need to draw 9 times or draw 40% of their games. In league history only 3 teams have drawn that many: 2021 Gotham drew 46% of their matches, 2018 Red Stars 42%, and the 2015 Red Stars 45%. For a Racing team that lost half their games last year, turning some Ls to Ds is needed. But relying on draws can be living a dangerous life. For Racing to achieve their playoff goal, they need to win some games.

There are lots of ways to win games, and there are lots of reasons a team can be motivated to show up with a little extra spring in their step. Here is a list of games this season and why Racing has the upper hand.  Whether you think Racing needs 28 points or 38 point, there are myriad ways to get there.

Hell Week: Racing plays 3 in 8 days games in July and August against teams projected to be at the top of the table. It is going to be hot. The team will likely have some knocks. Lynn Family Stadium has produced some good crowds and atmospheres in the past, but this time it’s special. The fans show up despite the heat and give the team the energy it needs to fight. In 20 years, people will look back at this week as one that truly bonded the players to the fans, and vice versa, as only shared adversity can do. Home 7/29 Thorns, 8/2 OL Reign, 8/5 Spirit

Nadia Nadim Revenge Tour: Last year Dr Nadim was injured by a questionable tackle in Orlando from a player who now suits up for OL Reign. Did you forget? Nadia didn’t. Away Reign 5/8, Away Pride 7/2, Home Reign 8/2, Away Thorns 9/21

Expansion Teams: Remember when you were a freshman, and everyone picked on you? And then the second you walked into school your sophomore year you bumped into that freshman and told them to move out of the way instead of apologizing? Racing is the expansion freshman no longer. Get in that locker Angel City. Home SD 5/18, Home ACFC 6/11, Away SD 7/15, Away ACFC 9/25.

Beat the Heat: It can get hot in Kentucky in the summer. Some of our opponents may not be used to the stifling heat and melt. Home ACFC 6/11, Home Portland 7/29, Home Spirit 8/5

Pizza Wars: There is, apparently, a debate between Chicagoans and New Yorkers as to the best style of pizza. Which is better, NY or deep-dish Chicago? The answer – bourbon. Away Red Stars 4/30, Away Gotham 5/22, Home Gotham 7/8, Home Red Stars 8/27

Happy Birthday! Some of the very best days in the office are on co-workers’ birthdays. Everyone is in a good mood. You get a longer lunch. The boss cancels the boring afternoon meeting. And someone always bring cupcakes. Cupcakes are awesome. Home SD 5/18 (Taylor Mahlham 5/20,) Away Gotham 5/22 (Freja 5/24,) Home NC 6/4/ (Emina 6/6,) Home Gotham 7/8 (Fox 7/5,) Away SD 7/15 (Gemma 7/13,) Home Spirit 8/5 (CeCe 8/7,) Home Red Stars 8/27 (Erin Simon 8/19, ) Home Pride 9/16 (Kirsten Davis 9/8)

Full Moon Fever: Racing plays 4 games on the full moon. No werewolves on the current roster gives them the advantage. Away Red Stars 4/30, Away KC 5/30, Home Red Stars 8/27, Away ACFC 9/25

2 Hydrogens 1 Oxygen and 4 good results: Racing plays 2 teams named after the motion of water: the Current and the Wave. Naming your club after the movement of people or animals – awesome. Movement of water? Dumb. Home SD 5/18, Away KC, Away SD 7/15, Home KC 10/1.

Fighting Traffic: You know when you are going to work, and then you get stuck in traffic. You just sit there listening to Morning DJs tell bad jokes. You take a sip of coffee and you spill some down your shirt. Then your air conditioner starts to go out and you have to turn it off, so it doesn’t catch on fire.  There you are sweating, dirty shirt, not moving, and mad. Racing gets the advantage on the road for these games because their opponents are stuck in traffic. Away Spirit, 6/17, Away Dash 8/12, Away ACFC 9/25 

Identity Crisis. Some teams need to move due to bad owners or bad stadium situations. Some teams need to rebrand to reset a culture or gin up some excitement. But how does that make players feel? To know that your organization played a bunch of games and then pretended those games didn’t exist? That those teams didn’t exist? Your playing career can be erased because an owner was a jerk, or a marketing firm says you are stale. Heavy stuff there.  The existential crisis gives Racing the advantage. Away OL Reign 5/8, Away Gotham 5/22, Away KC 5/30, home NC 6/4, Home Gotham 7/8, Home OL Reign 8/2, Away CN 9/10, Home KC 10/1

Ennui Crest. 2 teams have a red and blue crest featuring a cat. How is that lack of creativity possible? Did they limit the brainstorming portion of the meeting to 5 minutes or just go with the first idea? “But wait! Our crest has red and blue AND gold! That’s different and unique!” No, it’s not, Dave. Unique crest gets better results. Away OL Reign 5/8, Home NC 6/4, Home OL Reign 8/2, Away NC 9/10 

Editor’s Note:  Here is Tom’s projection of the outcomes as of 4/18/22.  He estimated that a team needs 33 points out of 66 to make the playoffs.  Using this as a baseline, you can tweak the results or email admin@fleur-de-lis-fc.com if you would like your own copy of the simulator in MS Excel.

Tom’s Prediction based on a 50% point accumulation requirement

I ran my own simulation and came up with the following prediction:

Racing 1 Red Stars 1 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy Connor Cunningham

Racing battled back hard to take a point at home in Louisville last night, but honestly needed all 3 to keep any realistic Challenge Cup hopes alive. They could be eliminated as early as this afternoon depending on results from today’s matches. Regardless, based on the performance through 5 matches, I think we can safely say that this vintage of Racing Louisville will be a better vintage than last year. Last year I found myself applauding effort, if not results. This year the expectations are already starting to be raised and the effort will be understood as a given. Here are some items I noticed last night.

• Hopefully the early goal conceded will be a lesson to the team. It wasn’t conceded on a comedy of errors like many of the goals from last year, but if year two and year one under Björkegren is about the details, the details let Racing down on the first goal. For Chicago, the goal really came from nothing. Fox secured an errant pass intended for Wright from Pugh. Emily does this so routinely that she likely didn’t sense any danger. She then put in a slightly errant pass that seemed to catch Howell off guard. The ultimate result of this what that the ball ended up with Mal Pugh out wide with Howell defending her. Thinking that Jae had the situation under control, Fox doesn’t quite know who to cover. This allows Pugh to get off a very speculative cross. The next time Lund sees a cross like this, I am sure she will position herself to tip the cross over the bar, but this time she palms it into play and right to Kawalski who slots it home. There were no glaring errors in the buildup, but just a little more concentration probably means a goal is prevented. It’s a general improvement rule that it is easier to go from bad to good than it is to go from good to great. Expect Racing to not have glaring errors, but to improve the details as they progress.

• I really did feel like Racing was going to pull a goal back. I was hoping that they would score early enough to get a second and a win. In the end the draw was a fair result. Last year, Racing would get totally dominated on the stat line and have to hope and pray for a win or a draw most of the time. This match had a rather balanced stat line. As the season approaches, I think that a 40 to 50% points accumulation percentage is likely needed to place in the top 6. In the Challenge Cup as a sample, Racing has accumulated 6 points out of 15 which equates to 40%, which is right at the floor of what will be needed.

• Emina’s goal last night was particularly well taken and I think the subs will be more likely to swing the results in the league season. There was a lot of discussion during the post match interviews about the changes that Coach Kim made to try to swing the match, which they ultimately did. I mentioned in my preview post that I don’t think that there will necessarily be a set Starting XI this season. I expect Ekic, Salmon and DeMelo to get their fair share of starts. When Alex Chidiac arrives, I think she moves into the starting rotation pretty quickly. This could ultimately limit some of Olofsson’s minutes, which would be a shame because I think she has played well. It’s a good problem to have, but there is always a tradeoff between accumulating minutes with the same XI vs. making sure every member of the squad is available if the need arises.

• Depending on the realities that will be become apparent after today’s matches, Racing could conceivably send out an all-change lineup in Houston next Sunday at 6pm. I for one like to see other players get a chance in a competitive match, so if Racing is eliminated I would like to see as many changes as possible on Sunday.

Racing 1 - Red Stars 1 Player Ratings

Courtesy Connor Cunningham

Racing’s chances of advancing in the Challenge Cup took a big blow tonight, but the team showed spirit in grabbing a point back from a losing position. The team had some really good stretches in the match where they dictated play, but couldn’t quite find the clinical finish needed on most of their shots. Ekic’s goal was a stunner however.

Lund-6: Most of her saves where routine, but the one great one she made ultimately found the foot of Kowalski.

Fox-7: Joined the attack quite a bit and lead the team in passes in the final third.

Merrick-6: Not a great night, with a fairly low pass completion percentage of 59%, but won 6 of her 8 duels.

Bonner-6: Had a solid night, and lead the team in fouls won with 4.

Lester-7: Drove forward effectively on a couple of completed dribbles and led the team with 3 clearances.

Howell-8: Even though she was subbed off, had a really good night and looks more comfortable each game. Had team highs in Tackles (5) and Interceptions (4).

Olofsson-8: Had an almost perfect night passing, completing 96% of her passes and 100% in the final third. Only lost possession 3 times, compared to winning possession 6 times and was the only player with a positive ratio in that statistic.

Kizer-7: Had 4 shots and 2 on targets, but neither particularly dangerous. Still was involved in the attack quite a bit.

Milliet-7: Another solid start for Lo, and seemed to drive the team forward in the 2nd half.

Davis-7: Had several crosses in the first half, but couldn’t make any of them pay off.

McDonald-6: Led the team with 6 Aerial Duels won.

Ekic-8: Couldn’t have hit her goal any better. It was an unstoppable free kick.

Racing v Red Stars Preview

USA Today Sports Images

Racing return to action after the international break on Saturday Evening at 7:30 vs. the Chicago Red Stars. The two teams met in Chicago last month and played to a 0-0 draw, even though both teams had a few really good opportunities to score. Both teams will be looking to take away the full 3 points this time and that could position either team at the top of the group depending on the other result (Chicago is at the top of the group currently).

It’s always a bummer (at least for me) when the international break interrupts a good run of play. Racing has consecutive clean sheets which incidentally (or maybe not) lines up with Julia Lester’s introduction into the Starting XI. A high pressing style often links up nicely with a playing from the back philosophy and when you play from the back you want calm, secure center backs. Lester has been referred to as calm on multiple occasions and looks assured in Coach Björkegren’s style of play. It’s a really small sample size, but Lester seems like an upgrade at center back over any of the other options.

While Coach Björkegren commented that “The momentum is in the process,” I have to believe that some of the momentum is in the roster too. It’s hard not to look across this roster and see improvement at just about every position. Lund hasn’t been tested as much as Betos, but has shown no signs of being anything other than a rock-solid stopper. The back four of Fox-Lester-Bonner-Merrick has looked formidable and probably more importantly, flexible, with Fox able to flip to whichever side is showing the most attacking threat. The double pivot (or double 6 if you like) seems to be working well with whatever combination of midfielders are selected from the Olofsson/Howell/DeMelo/Otto and now Chidiac group. There is almost an embarrassment of riches at forward. One hates to get too excited about a team in its second year and is 1-2-1 in its current cup competition, but this team really looks like it can challenge for something.

That something could be the Challenge Cup, but that will all hinge on how the match against the Red Stars plays out. In my opinion, you almost always need to score first against them to come away with 3 points (although the Sprit proved otherwise in the final last year). Look for Racing to come out attacking early, especially with 2 weeks of practice for the majority of the players. Howell should be relatively well rested coming back from the National Team, but I do worry about Fox being overworked. I believe it is entirely within the realm of possibility that she gets some or all of the match off on Saturday, which will greatly reduce Racing’s chances. If Rebecca Holloway was in Louisville, I would have expected to see Fox get a rest, but she isn’t so she may be forced to start unless Lester is played wide again. Once the full roster is here, I worry less about rotation, but the fact is that neither Chidiac nor Holloway has arrived.

Speaking of rotation, I fully expect that we are likely to see a lot more appearances in the 18-19 range vs the 21-22 range for the league season. Last year, there were 7 players that appeared in over 85% of the matches. The roster is constructed for everyone to contribute, and I expect that they will. I don’t expect anybody (bar the keepers) on this team to have less than 5 appearances in the league. There is at least a game per week until mid-June, so the robustness of the roster will be fully tested.

Current 0 - Racing 3

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Racing won a frankly bizarre match on Saturday in Kansas City. The first goal was created by McDonald, but aided by Milliet’s positioning and caused an own goal (which shows up on the stat sheet as 0 xG for what it’s worth). The second goal was credited to Milliet, but it was reversed from being correctly ruled offside to being given as onside. The third goal was Racing’s first ever goal from a free kick and was Bonner’s debut goal for the club. KC honestly had a terrible night finishing the opportunities that they were given by Racing, putting their 3 best shots off target. You should never apologize when your opponent has an off night, so Racing will consider this a well deserved win.

Lund-7: Again, she had only a few saves to make, but one of them was an excellent instinctive kick save.

Martin-7: Started out on the left side, but put in the lion’s share of her time on the right when once again there was a swapping of outside backs in the first half.

Fox-8: All of this swapping of Fox’s positions makes me think that Björkegren is really considering working in a back 3 with Fox as a wing back at some point. New signing, Rebecca Holloway is a left back and could facilitate a change. Either way, it makes Racing unpredictable which is a good thing.

Bonner-8: Had 8 clearances to go along with her goal. She and Lester are forming a good partnership so far.

Lester-8: She seems so calm on and off of the ball. The fact that Lund hasn’t had all that much to do in the last couple of matches is down to the defensive effort put in by Bonner and Lester. There are still a few nervy moments, but not as many as this time last year.

Olofsson-7: With 3 interceptions and an over 80% passing completion rate, she had another typically solid night.

DeMelo-7: Sav had a rather interesting night in her full Racing debut. She gave up a couple of fouls in dangerous positions and was very, very close to a second yellow on a play where she ultimately made a great tackle. Going forward she was much better.

Kizer-7: Had a couple of late attempts at goal after the game was put to bed. Only attempted 18 passes, but completed 16 of them.

Ekic-8: Along with Milliet, had 7 touches inside of the opposition’s box, but might have been guilty of over-dribbling on her best opportunity in the box. Her corner kick delivery finally got the monkey off of Racing’s back for corners.

McDonald-7: Did most of her work outside of the box, but was directly responsible for the first goal.

Milliet-8 (Player of the Match): Her non-scoring stats were a little low to be given a rare 9 rating, but she was a nuisance for KC all day and scored one goal and greatly aided in the own goal.

One thing that is really encouraging from a team perspective, is how flexible this roster is. All of the regular defenders except Bonner, have demonstrated competency in multiple positions. The rotation in the midfield and forward positions gives hope that when changes are necessary, there are options all across the team sheet. Racing still hasn’t put together anything near what I would call a dominating performance, but more importantly has shown that it doesn’t have to in order to win.

Red Stars 0 - Racing 0

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Not all 0-0 draws are created equal, and the match tonight was an about as entertaining at you get for 0-0. There were several good chances for both teams and a Racing goal that was (probably…who could tell with the lack of good camera angles) correctly ruled offside. Both teams hit the woodwork, and Chicago hit it multiple times. It seemed like the game would find one team getting that crucial final touch, but in probably a fair outcome, the points were shared. Racing continues to look better each match in their high press, but once Chicago found a cutting pass to beat the forward line, they were off to the races. That tends to happen in a 3-4-3. Racing keeps its streak alive of never losing a match to the Red Stars and played their best full match of the season. One might wonder if a McDonald or Kizer substitute would have changed things late, but honestly I was fairly convinced that they would be getting the full night off before the match even started.

First the Player Ratings:

Lund-6: For as much danger as there was inside the Racing box, she really only had to make a couple of saves.

Fox-7: The switching of sides through me for a loop, but it’s good to know that Fox and Merrick are somewhat interchangeable in defense.

Lester-7: In her full debut, she seemed like a calming presence in the back line, which is always welcome. Also had a very impressive 94% pass completion percentage and one vital challenge to prevent a really dangerous opportunity for Cook.

Bonner-7: Had another solid performance.

Merrick-7: See above for Fox and also had a really good tantalizing pass into the box late in the first half. Had a team leading 14 passes in the final third.

Otto-6: She doesn’t quite have Olofsson’s hard edges, but worked well with Howell. She had the most duels (16) but only won 6 of them.

Howell-7: Probably not as good as an overall performance as last week, but gets an extra point for the late clearance on a really good chance for the Red Stars

Milliet-6: Won possession in the final third a team leading 3 times.

Ekic-7: Took her headed goal nicely, but it was offside.

Salmon-7: (Player of the Match): All that was missing from her performance was a goal. Naeher made a world-class save on her clever finish and I am sure Ebony thought she had her beaten.

Davis-7: Looks every bit the part of a threat to score in every match. She might be knocking on the door of the USWNT before you know it.

Two points out of 3 matches probably means that Racing doesn’t have much of a chance advancing in the Challenge Cup now that KC has 7 points, but if they can win away at KC on Saturday they can pull themselves back in contention for a spot in the last four. . The remaining 3 matches can be used to prepare for the regular season, but I don’t think Björkegren will necessarily treat them any differently if they were in striking distance. I for one would like to see a Salmon/McDonald pairing, but I wouldn’t want to be the one to decide who I would replace in the Starting XI. Davis might be a likely candidate for a rest on Saturday, but honestly so is Salmon. The next match might be an opportunity to see a McDonald/Kizer/Gordon front line, but who knows.

Racing probably need to win one of their final 3 matches to show progress, and the home rematch vs. the Red Stars should be an interesting one.

Red Stars v Racing Preview

Racing play their first away match of the year today at 7:30 vs Chicago at Seat Geek Stadium in Bridgeview, Ill. Racing have a 1-1-0 record against Chicago, and the draw ended in a victorious penalty shootout that sent Racing to the Women’s Cup Final vs Bayern Munich. This match being the middle match in a 3 games in 9 days stretch, look for some squad rotation, especially since Coach Björkegren guaranteed as much on Tuesday. Emily Fox is fully available for selection, so look for her to start since she only played 29 minutes vs. Houston. Here is a list of the minutes played so far, so that you can draw your own conclusions about who might get a rest.

My suggestion would be to assume midfield and forward rotation as more likely than defense.

I assume that the Red Stars might rotate their squad a bit at well (note that Davidson is out due to a season-ending knee injury:

Racing probably need a win in this match to have any hope of advancing past the group stage in the Challenge Cup. I think more importantly for the team, the next 4 matches will give them a chance to continue to adjust to Coach Björkegren’s style. I asked him if he was pleased with how the players were adapting to his style and he said, “I’m happy, but we still have a lot to learn”. The first half of the match vs. Houston was a step in the right direction. Last year’s team was guilty of not being able to clear their lines at critical points in the match and this tendency crept up again in the second half Houston, but Chicago is a different animal. The Red Stars play a back 3 almost exclusively, so that will be a new look for Racing. Chicago pretty handily won the possession battle in their first 2 matches and were right at 50% last season, although at times they seemed to be quite content without the ball especially in the playoffs. Chicago is comfortable in defense, so this might be a good chance to see what Racing can do as a team offensively with longer spells of possession. I think Racing matches up well vs. Chicago, so look for this to be an entertaining match.

Racing 2 Dash 3 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

One of the older clichés in soccer is that a 2-0 lead is the worst lead. This is most definitely scientifically untrue, but Friday night proved why it is a cliché. After playing a fantastic first half, Racing looked shaken after the first Dash goal went into the net and never recovered. According to the stats, Racing scored on a couple of really low xG shots (which I disagree) and the Dash scored on one low xG shot and two fairly high ones. If you are tired of reading my xG rants, skip the next paragraph and rejoin after.

I defy anyone with a set of eyes to tell me that Jess McDonald’s opportunity and goal were more likely to go into the net vs. Kirsten Davis’ opportunity and goal. Davis benefited from a few things that I don’t think the xG model factors in. First, she won possession quickly, second she got off the shot before the keeper really had time to react, and finally the last defender (in this case not the keeper) wasn’t set to defend. People often act like I am uneducated and don’t understand math or statistics when I complain about xG. Let me once again reiterate…I believe in the statistic when applied to evaluate long term performance. I think it is sometimes woefully misleading when applied to describe a single shot. In aggregate and over time, the factors that xG doesn’t consider become irrelevant. Unfortunately, on the single data points it is those unaccounted-for factors that make a difference sometimes. The other thing that xG defenders don’t get, is that I am trying to help. I have worked with enough data scientists in my career to know that sometimes they are too busy defending their model to actually try to improve it (hilariously penalties are modeled at .7xG when 75% of them are converted). All I am saying is that collectively the soccer analytics community needs to be looking at ways to make the xG model better. One final complaint that I am sure is100% untrue, but I will say anyway is that I wonder if any of the people who built the models actually have kicked a soccer ball. I have never played competitively, but even I know the feeling you get in your soul when you strike a ball well. It’s something that will never be measurable, but it makes a difference. I don’t strike many well, but I do know that the ones I do have a higher probability of going in. It’s not the speed of the ball either. It’s the feeling of your foot hitting the right spot on the ball in combination with your eyes following the shot on the path you intended. I have to believe that is what Davis felt on her shot.

Now back to the rational part of the post…

The key difference statistically in the match in my opinion were touches in the box. The Dash has 1/3 more touches in Racing’s 18-yard box than vice versa (24-18). Long story short, Racing couldn’t clear their lines as effectively as the Dash, especially in the second half. I think each of the Dash goals can be chalked up to a Racing defender not getting the right defensive touch in the box. However, sometimes I don’t think the opponent gets enough credit. The Dash fought really hard to claw back into the game and none of their goals were undeserved. On the first, Racing couldn’t get it out of the box, but Sánchez still had to finish it. Sánchez again was the culprit on the second goal as her pass to Viggiano was the most important factor in that goal (another xG complaint…it doesn’t factor in the passes before the goal which can sometimes increases your likelihood of scoring). Maybe Lund was at fault in retrospect for the 3rd because her errant pass started the move for the penalty decision (which I have to assume was correct, because the Paramount Plus cameras must be the lowest form of “HD” cameras known to humans) but Daly got in a good position to win and finish the penalty.

That’s enough discussion on the result. Here are a few other items of note:

• One has to wonder how different the result would have been with Fox getting the full 90. We have to assume without any information to contradict it, that she went off for precautionary reasons due to a potential head injury in the 29th minute. Julia Lester played well enough in her debut, but she isn’t Fox. Maybe Fox helps keep a clean sheet, but also maybe Racing don’t score their second. Either way, I hope she is back soon.

• Even though Coach Björkegren didn’t want to confirm it when I asked him, Racing lined up in a different formation than the first match. Sometimes coaches like to be coy about formations, so I am going to stop asking him and forcing him to answer less than truthfully in my opinion. Anyway, Racing played from defensive restarts in a 4-4-2 in order to press more effectively early in the match. This formation seemed to work. They were a little more fluid in attack and transition, demonstrated by Davis’ goal coming from the right (where she started the previous match) when she started out the match on the left. After the equalizing goal, Coach Kim made the aggressive decision in taking off a defender (Martin) and sending on an attacker (Ekic) which meant Racing saw out the match in a back 3. Ekic and Davis seem to be flexible on either side of the pitch, as Ekic played mostly on the right in this match. I like Björkegren’s tactical flexibility. His major complaint on the night was mostly with individual play and not collective.

• I think Houston’s experience helped assist their comeback. Racing is still a very young team and has to learn how to deal with success as much as failure. A little more sustained possession and composure to start the second half was needed. Even so, the first Houston goal came from a ragged attack off a set piece and sometimes you can’t avoid those. In the future, Racing has to learn to keep their composure and concentration, which I think they lost a bit after seeing the first goal go in.

• Racing has a quick turnaround and sit at the bottom of the group. Wednesday’s match might see a little rotation in the squad, but I don’t expect wholesale changes. Maybe we will get to see Salmon, Gordon and Simon get starts. I would like to see Otto get some minutes as well as Goins. I also don’t think a Jordyn Bloomer start would be totally unexpected. I have been told that Coach Björkegren’s roster philosophy is to build it so that everyone gets minutes, so we’ll see how that pans out on Wednesday.

Racing 2 Dash 3 Player Ratings

Courtesy Connor Cunningham

Racing had another first tonight in that they gave up a 2-0 lead for the first time ever. As good as the first half performance was, the second half was really disappointing.

Lund-5: I’m not sure what she could have done on any of the goals, but letting 3 goals in can’t rate any higher.

Fox-8: Went off early for what has to be assumed to be concussion protocols. She was the Fantastic Ms. Fox as always while she was on the pitch

Merrick-6: Won possession back quite a bit (11 times), but has to be downgraded for giving away the penalty

Bonner-6: Not really to blame for any of the goals, but also not really involved in the build up play either.

Martin-5: Probably a little bit to blame on both goals.

Howell-8: It was a much better performance in her second match.

Olofsson-7: Another solid performance.

Davis-8 (POTM): Scored her first professional goal and had another shot on target and 4 shots total. Racing look very smart for protecting her in the expansion draft.

Milliet-7: Created the 2nd goal from her run down the right side.

Kizer-6: It was a rare quiet night for her.

McDonald-8: Scored her first goal for Racing on a really fine finish.

Racing v Dash Preview

Racing played two home matches vs. the Houston Dash in 2021, and each of those matches had a wildly different outcome. Since I have a very spotty memory, I went back and reviewed my analysis of those matches starting with the rather infamous 0-4 loss. Bekki Morgan remembers this match as Racing’s worst ever performance. I tend to agree and called it “their worst performances in recent memory”. Before reviewing my analysis, 2 things stuck in my mind about the match. First, Nichelle Prince was virtually unstoppable. From my player ratings “Fox-6: Nichelle Prince bullied her the entire match.” I think I was being generous with that rating as well. To date, it has really been Fox’s only sub-par performance in a Racing kit. Secondly several of the players were in tears at the end of the match. I don’t think the match technically eliminated Racing from the playoffs, but it virtually did. There is one other excerpt from my analysis that I want to highlight:

“This next sentence is going to sound self-contradictory, but it's what I think it sums up Racing's major problem. Racing plays too slowly from the back which causes poor decisions by rushing their passes. Playing out from the back can be a really effective way to control a match if you can do it effectively. Racing plays too slowly from restarts and allows the defense to push up on them before they make their next pass. When you play slowly from the back you invite pressure. When you play quickly but intentionally from the back you can slice through a defense effectively.”

Since Coach Björkegren’s preferred style is to play out from the back, it will be interesting to watch if this is improved from the match vs. KC. Arguably, KC’s goal in the last match was a direct result of playing from the back but it didn’t happen from a restart and Bonner had only just won possession. I have heard/read several people say that Bonner’s mistake was an errant pass or intended pass, but I think you can chalk it up to Lynn Williams’ excellent pressure and the point of the statement above, which boils down to “don’t rush, but be quick AND vigilant.” Sometimes I think people forget that there isn’t this long history of playing out from the back, at least under the current set of FIFA rules (2019 being the first year of the 18-yard box goal kick change). With players being able to receive a pass from the keeper inside of the 18-yard box on a goal kick, many teams have embraced playing out of the back. In a nutshell, no current professional player has a more than a few years of experience in playing out from the back starting with a short pass inside of the box. All of this is to point out that Racing is still learning how to play out from the back.

From the earlier match in the year which served as Ebony Salmon’s audacious debut, here is what I said:

Without a doubt, Sunday afternoon was Freja Olofsson's best performance. From the first few minutes, I kept a close watch on her, because she looked like she had something to prove from the beginning of the match. The stats have her with a 78% passing accuracy, which I am sure is correct. However, her off the ball performance was a delight. Whenever the ball was near her and not in her possession, she put forward every effort to win it. She took possession away from Houston in the middle of the field more than a couple of times. If she lost possession, she always fought to win it back. I think she slowed down several Dash attacks and after a while, I think the Dash midfield was looking over their shoulders in fear of another tough challenge, which she often provided. The general public will usually favor a goal scoring performance, but I thought she was the player of the match hands down. It was a really encouraging performance.

I am a huge Olofsson fan. Not everyone is. More than any other player position, midfielders tend to divide opinion. In the previous match vs. KC, Olofsson had a similar match to one I described vs. Houston. Some people hold the opinion that your box-to-box midfielder should be driving the attack. I am of the opinion that balance is key. It’s almost impossible to balance that attacking/defending split evenly in every match, so people who have a more offensive mindset tend to look at the lack of forward-moving passes as a clear detriment. The ball doesn’t always have to move forward for the pass to be effective, but never passing the ball forward is almost always ineffective. I believe you need steel in the middle of the pitch, especially in Racing’s forward heavy roster.

Everyone remembers the 1-0 victory vs. Houston for Salmon’s goal. I finally bit the bullet and went back and watched all of Racing’s goals from last year. Of the 27 from last year and the one from the KC match, here is the breakdown of goals.

Let me explain the categories:

• In possession from transition with opponent shape integrity: This is probably the most difficult to explain. I wouldn’t call these necessarily counter-attacking goals or purely transition goals. The key difference for me here is how much time the opposition defense is given to get their back line into shape. Let’s use the Salmon goal as the example. McCaskill receives the ball from Bonner around midfield and moves the ball effectively forward until Salmon receives the pass. As Salmon takes her first couple of touches, the back four for Houston are all in their correct defensive “shape”, but not necessarily “settled”. The move itself isn’t a long piece of sustained possession, so it doesn’t really qualify as a sustained possession goal. I coded this in a shade of yellow with its two similar categories. The yellow really signifies scoring moves with possession won in Racing’s defensive half.

• With sustained possession: This is fairly straightforward. Racing is experiencing an extended stretch of possession in their own half and the goal comes from that sustained possession.

• From Pressing: The ball is won directly from pressure applied to an opposing player, usually resulting in an error and ultimately leading to a Racing goal.

• In transition: Almost purely a counter attacking goal. The difference here is that the opposition defense hasn’t regained it’s defensive shape due to the quickness of the move.

• The last 3 are pretty self-explanatory. For a visual explanation of the move “started with the goalkeeper from the back” click here. It is a distinct category in my mind, because it is a dream goal if you like the playing out from the back mentality.

Their has been a lot of backward looking stuff in this preview, so for the forward looking piece I employed the help of Laura Gómez.

Me: Houston lost their opening match in the Challenge Cup to Chicago. On your Just a Dash podcast, you said that Houston should try to win the cup. Does that mean that the match against Racing on Friday is pivotal to how the Dash will treat the rest of the cup based on Friday's outcome?

Laura: In the first half, there were for sure at least three close plays that could have ended in a goal for the Dash and I was feeling pretty confident that another goal might be coming and that a win could be very reachable if not a tie as a second option. I was wrong. Unfortunately, in the second half when closing we have seen the Dash struggle in the past and was their undoing. In the Just a Dash podcast by The Striker Texas, I did say the team should try to win the Challenge Cup maybe even a little more than other teams. It would also get the team good traction for the upcoming season, so yes the game against Racing is of extreme importance, we know in cups games are all important because there isn't enough of them to recuperate points, you need to add points make it to the final.

Me: What were some of the positive things you saw from the match against Chicago?

Laura: The Dash has so many quality players with a lot of potential. Some are new to the team so it's going to take some games to get them to really understand each other. Just to name a few players that will be key to the team in certain situations: Nichelle Prince, Maria Sanchez, Sophie Smidt, Shea Groom. I mean there is talent in this team. I feel like the club has established a culture and ambiance where players can really flourish. With that said, things need to start to fall into place soon inside the pitch, this upcoming season is a do-or-die one because the Dash has never made it to the post-season.

ME: President of the club Jess O'Neill hasn't been with the team very long, but what do you think she brings to the Dash?

Laura: Having a team president it's huge, important. I would stay a historic step adding that position to the team. Even more so when it someone so qualified as Jess O'Neill. She comes with a lot of experience, with actual on the ground experiences in the U.S. soccer scene. O'Neill, will be key in the leadership of the team in several areas, from fan experiences and engagement to helping the team grow and reach new historic accomplishments.

Me: The Dash had only 1 selection in the 2022 college draft and selected Ryan Gareis. Is she a pick for the future, or do you expect to see her at some point in the Challenge Cup?

Laura: Ryan Gareis, is a hard-working player, I've had the opportunity to talk to others and she really wants to make Houston her home, and that is something that is key to the adaptation of a player. Not wanting to stay in the city will eventually have inadvertent effects in other areas like inside the pitch, as we saw in the earlier days of the Dash with some players that came to the team but didn't want to be in Houston. Gareis, has skills the team can use for sure. She adds depth, she's a lefty, all in all, a well-rounded player. I do expect to see her in the Challenge Cup, it's the perfect opportunity to see how adapted she is and for the coach James Clarkson to see what she's good at now and what needs work before the season start.

Me: Since the club only had one pick in the college draft, the Dash signed Maria Sanchez and Paulina Gramaglia. Do you think the Dash's season will depend on how they adapt?

Laura: As far as Maria Sanchez, she will have an influence on how the team advances this upcoming season. As we are all aware she has had a big impact already and the season hasn't even started. Of course, this has mostly been done as an amazing marketing campaign from the club, but also because she has the potential to be huge. She is charismatic, has embraced Houston, is relatable to a lot of the youth in the city, and has a different type of soccer than many NWSL players. She gives the team that extra "magic". As for Paulina Gramaglia, she is very young and has a lot of raw potential. It's good she came to the NWSL now and is still in her "learning years" and can adapt easily to the playing style. She has good basic ones already coming from Argentina, where soccer is like a religion and she has already debuted in the national team at 19 years old, and that's not easy to accomplish. Gramaglia, accomplished a lot in her previous team UAI Urquiza, from Argentina where she scored nine goals in one season and became essential to that team. Something similar can happen here as well. For me, it's matter of adaptation time.

Me: Who is the player who needs to have a breakout year in order for the Dash to make the playoffs?

Laura: I have always said that a team needs to play as a team. One player can go in and score 10 goals but if the rest of the team isn't playing well the rival can find ways to get the same amount of goals in. So it's vital that the team plays as just that a team. I do believe that if Maria Sanchez stays healthy and keeps adapting to the team as she has shown she can be a vital key for the Dash to finally make the so elusive play-offs.

I want to thank Laura for her help. You can follow her on Twitter @LauraGomezNews. Check out her work on the “Just a Dash” podcast for The Striker Texas.

As for my final thoughts on the match and what to watch for, I will say to look for Racing to emphasize more width in the midfield and attack. Casey Whitfield pointed this out in the most recent episode of Butchertown Rundown. This is a winnable match for both teams. Maybe the biggest difference between the 0-4 loss and the 1-0 win was the central defense. In the 0-4, Racing started Hendrix and Martin at center back. The expected pairing of Merrick and Bonner should be a better option for Racing this time around.

Racing Prepare for Houston

Courtesy Racing Louisville

After Racing’s open practice on Thursday, new signees Sh’Nia Gordon and Julia Lester were made available for the media along with Coach Björkegren and CeCe Kizer. Here are the items of interest from those interviews:

• Sh’Nia Gordon: Sh’Nia was in preseason training with CSKA Moscow in Turkey when the FIFA decision came to allow foreign nationals to void their contracts with Russian clubs. Not being in Russia allowed her to get news about the events in the Ukraine, which if she had been in Russia may not have been readily available. Based on the recent events, she had pretty much decided that she was not going to play in Russia this year regardless of which teams reached out to her. However, Racing was the first team to reach out to her and she obviously signed for them. Coach Kim told her that her main role would be to go 1 v 1 in attack.

• Julia Lester: When I asked her what she learned by working with Coach Björkegren for a season and a half, she stated that he loved to play from the back. Since she started off as an outside back prior to college and moved to center back at Florida and at Apollon under Björkegren, she had to learn to get comfortable receiving the ball from her goalkeeper and having the other team apply pressure. When asked about her preferred position, she said that she missed the attacking side of the game that you get as an outside back but had learned a lot in her time at center back. In the end she said that she was fine with either and that “defense is really fun for me.”

• CeCe Kizer: When asked about Houston, she said to expect a competitive match between teams with similar styles and that their talented front line has a lot of pace (my number one concern as well). On what the team learned from the game vs KC, Kizer said that team would be looking to press and play up the field a bit higher (which was evident in practice on Thursday) and to get more numbers forward and not be strictly a counter attacking team.

• Kim Björkegren: He noted that there was some expected fatigue from the first full match, but that all players were back in training except for Nadia. Kim also mentioned being prepared for the pace of the Dash’s front 3 or 4 players. On bringing Julia over from Cyprus, he said that she was a “perfect match” for his team and the style that he wants to play. She moved over as soon as the title was secured (Apollon have one match remaining in the season). On CeCe, Kim called her “one of the best players in the league.” On Sh’Nia, he mentioned her pace and effectiveness in transition as being major assets.

It’s pretty much an open secret that Racing will be bringing in a couple more international players. After seeing that Lester was allowed to move over early from Apollon, I checked the current English WSL standings to see if anything was close to being settled (assuming that the English league is the most likely place to find talent willing to move to the NWSL). Unfortunately for Racing, every team still has something to play for whether it be the championship, a Champion’s League place or relegation. Teams have played either 16 or 17 out of the 22 scheduled fixtures. The battle for the top 3 will likely come down to 5 teams and it’s also likely to go down to the last matchday which is on May 8th. In short, don’t expect any more moves until then unless it is from a team in the bottom half of the table.

Racing 1 Current 1Post Match Analysis

Courtesy Connor Cunningham

The weather in Louisville held off long enough to ensure a dry and safe match at Lynn Family Stadium on Friday Evening, even if the few hours that followed were a bit more nervous with strong winds coming through the area. “Nervous” was a good word to describe Racing’s performance in the match, as the first 8-10 minutes looked like a team with a new system and a new coach. After that, Racing settled in and were able to get the 1st half possession number up to 48% and went into halftime leading by a goal. KC ended up converting one of their two really good chances, and a draw was a deserved result.

Since this match was the debut for both Jae Howell and Kirsten Davis, let’s start there. I fully expect Howell to be a great player for Racing, but last night’s match was probably her first non-international match in a very long time where she wasn’t the best player on the pitch. To be honest (and I know I am in the minority here), I think Jae would have been better served with an extra 2 weeks in Racing’s camp over the USWNT call up that took her away. Fox was called up too but is more experienced and her time away probably didn’t hurt her at all in her preparation for the season. In the first half, Howell looked a little tentative at times, and surprisingly to me at least…off the pace. More than once, an attacking player went by her fairly easily. Her passing was a bit off as well with a 66% pass completion rate. That looks especially poor when compared to an expected pass completion of 77% based on American Soccer Analysis xPass model. However, she turned things around in the second half and looked much more settled. I would classify her performance as a learning experience. I am 100% positive that the next match will better showcase her skills.

As for Kirsten Davis, she had an almost completely anonymous first half and an absolutely rollicking second half. I should insert a disclaimer here: I sit right next to the bench, and I am much more likely to notice things that happen on that side of the pitch. A really dedicated soccer analyst would go back and watch the match, but I’m not that dedicated. In this case I don’t think I missed anything in her first half performance, but who knows. In the second half she was much more involved and ended up leading the team in shots with 3 and had one on target. Her most common connection was with CeCe Kizer, even with CeCe going off in the 74th minute.

Courtesy Arielle Dror

The surprise stat of the night for me was that Nealy Martin led the team in completed passes with 60. She had effective connections with Kizer, Davis, and McDonald. Of course, in my pre-match analysis I predicted a heavy Fox-Ekic connection and true to my predictive capabilities, their connection was almost nonexistent. Fox connected with Howell and Olofsson effectively, but not Ekic. It seemed as if KC might have been specifically trying to prevent Fox from getting forward early on. Fox did have a good charging run in the second half. On the defensive side she rather easily handled Lynn Williams’ runs when Williams bizarrely chose the left side to attack. She shut down Edmonds effectively on the left side too when she moved into attack.

On the tactical side, I think that KC dictated much of the match, even if they trailed for over half of it. Take note of the Pass Network below and notice that both the left back, Mace and right back, Edmonds basically hung out in midfield.

Courtesy Arielle Dror

For comparison purposes, Fox and Martin spent most of the match firmly in defense. The other item to note is that Desiree Scott’s performance is a good model for what Racing would like to see from Howell. She had 54 completed passes for a percentage of 91%. Her average position of pretty much dead center of the pitch with 7 effective pass networks is something to aspire towards.

One final thought on the match and the league in general about how much the NWSL game is a transition game. Richard Laverty wrote a very good piece on Gemma Bonner for Our Game Magazine here. Here is one particularly omniscient quote from Bonner: “But here, I’m put into positions where I can’t afford to switch off because the game is so transitional, you don’t have too many periods of sustained possession. You have to stay switched on because in a split second you can have Mal Pugh running at you or Lynn Williams or Trinity Rodman, who can hurt you on the fly. The tactical and technical level in England for me is so much higher but the concentration level you need here is so high, that’s the excitement of different leagues.” On Friday this is exactly what happened on KC’s goal. Bonner switched off for just the tiniest of moments and Williams made her pay by winning possession and thus starting the attack that lead to the goal. I don’t want to dwell on Bonner’s mistake, as she made up for it greatly with a goal line clearance late. I bring this up more so talk about 2 things that I have been thinking about for a while.

The first is the ever expanding improvement in soccer stats, and the need to not rest on those improvements. I have debated xG both with fans of the metric and internally with myself for quite a while. I won’t rehash that, but I will say that I believe the next step in analysis is what I would call “Transition xG” My hypothesis is that opportunities created off of a loss of possession are more likely to result in goals that the same opportunities created in possession. I have a tendency to believe that many of Racing’s goals are created within less than 10 seconds of the opponent losing possession. It would be interesting to examine I believe. This leads into the second thing that I have been pondering which is: can a coach that focuses intensely on the technical side of the game like Björkegren be successful in the NWSL? I think the answer is a resounding “Yes”, but we may have to think about how technical and tactical discipline reduce your opponent’s scoring opportunities vs. how they increase your own. I thought Racing’s shape in the match was really good. You could tell that KC were getting frustrated early by their significant amount of possession and lack of any really good opportunities. I think part of this was due to Racing’s technical and tactical discipline at the back. Now Racing needs to work on moving that tactical and technical discipline up the pitch into midfield and attack.

Racing 1 Current 1 Player Ratings

On the surface, this year’s version of Racing looked a little like the version from last year based on the loss of the possession battle and the numbers of shots taken vs. allowed. However, there were several notable differences which I will get into more tomorrow. The biggest one in my eyes, was that they kept their shape for the most part. That is always a good sign for a team starting in a new system with a new coach.

Lund-7: KC seemed intent on testing her with deep shots, which see very capably saved. She misjudged a cross at the end of the first half, but Pickett could make her pay. There wasn’t much she could do on the goal.

Fox-8: Handled Williams and Hamilton really well when they attacked down her side in the first half.

Bonner-6: Took an extra touch on the ball which led to the McCain goal. It was really good pressure from Williams. She redeemed herself by clearing the second McCain attempt of the line on a last-ditch clearance.

Merrick-7: Having not playing any real significant minutes in over a season, looked a little rusty and tentative at the start, but quickly righted herself and had a solid match.

Martin-7: Nealy looks so solid compared to this time last year that it’s frankly amazing.

Howell-7: Jae is burdened a bit with very high expectations. She looked a little nervous and off the pace in the first half, but righted herself to have an excellent second half. I think her second match will show much more of what she can do.

Olofsson-8 (Player of the Match): Freja kept all of the steel that she gained from playing in a deeper role last year, and also looked bright in her more attacking position.

Kizer-8: Scored another first goal of the year. She is probably the best natural finisher on the team.

Ekic-6: I expected Racing to attack more down the left, but Emina and Fox couldn’t really get their rhythm together in attack. She also switched off a time or two and left Fox isolated on the defensive end.

Davis-7: She had a rather anonymous first half, but was really lively in the second half. A difficult volley late in the match went wide of the net, but the effort to get into space and get the shot off was good.

McDonald-8: She “pled the 5th” on my question about whether we would continue to see long throws. I will have more on that tomorrow too. She was isolated a bit in the early parts of the match, but her ball to find Kizer on the goal was excellent. It was a consummate professional performance.