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Analysis of the NWSL Draft’s First 14 Picks from 2018 to 2023
I almost always like to use evidence when backing up a claim, but there is a claim that I frequently make that I think requires a little deeper analysis. I am of the opinion that past the first few picks in the NWSL draft each year that the talent dips significantly. That isn’t a claim that you can’t find a hidden gem in a later round, but more of a statement about the value of a top pick over that of a later round pick. I decided to look at the top 14 picks (since there will be 14 first-round picks in the next NWSL draft) and try to determine where the drop in value usually occurs. My analysis led me to some interesting findings, but ultimately made me think that my instincts were right but with new perspective.
First let me start off with the measurement that I used and the methodology that I applied. I am sure there will be some disagreement about the singular measure that I used, and I frankly welcome further research to be done if anyone is interested in a more complicated analysis. However, since I had to construct the data set and parameters of the analysis, I decided to keep things simple as I am not looking to get this published in a scientific journal. I just simply wanted to see if my semi-informed opinion stood up to any numerical scrutiny. Therefore the measure I used was a calculation of % of available (league-only) minutes played by the player selected. For example, let’s take Andi Sullivan who was the first pick in the 2018 draft. Since she was drafted, she has played in 78% of the available minutes for her teams matches from 2018 to 2023. If you exclude Emily Madril (who currently sits at 100% but with only a single year of data), next on the list is Sam Staab, who has played in 97% of the available minutes for the Spirit during her tenure. Immediately you can see some of the limitations of this analysis in that defenders are likely going to skew high. Goalkeepers will too, if they are the first-choice keeper. Ultimately, since I wasn’t trying to discover anything about the difference at the highest levels, I decided that it didn’t matter that much if 90% was that different from 60%. The key data point I was in search of was the dividing line between a player who was at least a “solid” contributor and one who had “underperformed”.
N=84 (First 14 players selected each draft during the 6-year period)
I decided to see if the histogram told the story of where the cut-off point was. In a perfect analysis, if you moved from left to right you could label the bars accordingly:
First Bar-Not NWSL caliber or decided to play in another league (Mia Fishel being an example in this bucket with 0% of available minutes played, but in her case it was her decision, not the team’s)
Second Bar-Squad players (Kiki Pickett and Brianna Pinto are two high-draft pick examples from this bucket)
Third Bar-Key Contributors (Paige Monaghan is probably the prime example of this)
Fourth Bar-Consistent Starters (Savannah McCaskill finds herself here)
Fifth Bar-Iron Women (the aforementioned Sam Staab)
However, I decided that the histogram was a little too strict and that there were plenty of consistent starters who were in the third bucket. The mean and the median of the data were around 40%, but that bar seemed too low. Finally, I checked the data to see if there were any players who hit close to 50%. Quinn has logged almost exactly 50% of their available minutes in their career, so I let them be the deciding factor. I would consider Quinn a valuable member of the Reign squad, so ultimately, I decided that 50% would be the dividing line between a “solid” draft pick and “underperforming” draft pick.
Before I go into the “fun” stuff, I want to include another detail about the data. I only counted minutes in seasons where a player was on the squad and used at least once. There isn’t a good example of a player excelling for a single season then bailing on the league, so this detail is more of a footnote vs. anything else.
Final Note: This analysis isn’t meant to compare a player’s performance to another player’s, but to try to determine which draft picks are most valuable and to determine their relative value to each other.
I will go through each draft, but before I do, I wanted to display a graph of all of the picks from 2018 to 2023.
The thing that stands out to me here is that the first two picks are pretty solidly guaranteed to be valuable with all 12 picks playing more than 50% of the available minutes. Oddly enough the 3rd pick has underperformed (3 picks) with the 4th pick being slightly better (4 picks). After that it is pretty predictable that the “solid” picks alternate between 1 and 2 at each spot with the exceptions being the picks at 7, 12, and 13. I wouldn’t necessarily read anything into that especially at the 7th pick as there isn’t an eye-popping name in that group, but the 12th pick in 2021 yielded Sam Coffey and the 13th pick in 2019 yielded CeCe Kizer. For me the takeaway would be this: I think you can assign a monetary value to each pick based on the probability of getting a good solid contributor. Here is how I would assign value:
Picks 1 and 2 would be valued at some indeterminate figure X
Picks 3 and 4 would be valued at .75 X
Picks 5 through 12 would be valued at .4 X
Anything after that I personally don’t think is worth the paper it is submitted on, but let’s go with .05 X just to give it a value.
In essence, I just set the high value at X and found that picks 3 and 4 play 75% of the minutes that picks 1 and 2 have historically and that picks 5-12 play 40% of the minutes that picks 1 and 2 have.
2018 Draft
The six “solid” picks in this draft are Andi Sullivan (1), Savannah McCaskill (2), Quinn (3), Imani Dorsey (5), Haley (Hanson) McCutcheon (7), and Casey Murphy (13). That is decent rate, but the highs are highs, and the lows are low. The 12th pick was Kimberly Keever who started 9 matches but was out of the league by the start of the next season.
2019 Draft
Eight of the twelve players selected in 2019 turned out to be very good picks. Tierna Davidson (1), Hallie Mace (2), Sam Staab (4), Dorian Bailey (8), Paige Monaghan (10), Ally Prisock (12), CeCe Kizer (13), and Lauren Milliet (14). That is very deep top 14. Jordan (DiBiasi) Baggett (3) is useful when healthy, but that hasn’t happened enough in Washington or Louisville.
2020 Draft
This draft might be the most interesting one. There are plenty of players that are “solid”, but the “underperforming” category includes Ally Watt (6), Tziarra King (8), Natalie Jacobs (13) and Phoebe McClernon (14) who’s percentages range between 23% and 43%. The talent is apparent in these players, they just haven’t been on the pitch enough to warrant a top 14 pick in my opinion. This draft also points out the limitations of my analysis with Sophia Smith (1) logging 67% or her available minutes and in my opinion, she is currently the most valuable player in the league by far. Like I stated earlier, this analysis isn’t meant to compare a player’s performance to another’s, but to try to determine which draft picks are most valuable. The rest of the “solid” picks are Morgan Weaver (2), Taylor Kornieck (3), Ashley Sanchez (4), Courtney Petersen (7), Kaliegh Riehl (11) and Kate Del Fava (12).
2021 Draft
This draft ends the run of 3 in a row that I would consider “above average” return for value. It is highlighted by 3 stars: Emily Fox (1), Trinity Rodman (2), and Sam Coffey (12) but 4 solid contributors round out the successes with Tara McKeown (8), Viviana Villacorta (9), Kirsten Davis (13) and Mikayla Colohan (14). Victoria Pickett is an interesting player at the 15th spot. She would qualify as “solid” based on this criterion but has seen her playing time drop in 2023.
2022 Draft
It might be still too early to fully rate this draft, but Naomi Girma (1), Jaelin Howell (2), Savannah DeMelo (4) and Diana Ordonez (6) are no-doubt solid picks. Elyse Bennett (7) and Julie Doyle (11) could see their minutes increase in the next couple of years.
2023 Draft
The jury could still be out on some of the players in the 20% to 40% range, but this draft already has 5 “solids” in Alyssa Thompson (1), Michelle Cooper (2), Emily Madril (3), Jenna Nighswonger (4) and Penelope Hocking (7). It is encouraging that each of the top four picks have proven themselves to be solid from the start.
On Louisville’s Draft Position
I thought it would be better to post this prior to knowing what Louisville’s draft position will be because I wanted to see if there was any value at 5 or 6 compared to 7 or 8. I think I would say that the probability of getting a “solid” player drops significantly after the fourth pick, but that there really isn’t much difference between 5 and 14. It is possible but unlikely that Louisville will finish with the 4th pick now, so I think I can say pretty firmly that their 2024 first-round pick will be left to chance when it comes to how much of a contributor the player will be. Additionally, I wouldn’t necessarily move up in the draft to take a player unless that player is in the top 4.
San Diego v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
One of the blessings/curses of writing a “Pre Match” piece is that I choose to go through the images from the previous year’s fixture. As you can see above, I chose the key image from a 0-0 draw where Jaelin Howell had a goal ruled out due to interfering with the Wave keeper. I seem to recall several calls for VAR at the time (memory is an unreliable witness however) and sometimes you get buyer’s remorse once you see the effects of what you once desired. We’ve had just about a year’s worth of VAR and I would personally give it a rating of “Needs Improvement”. This is especially the case when VAR overturns a call on the field where there isn’t enough evidence to overturn a call after a 30 second review. I warned about the lack of cameras and here we sit at the end of the first season. Here’s hoping that VAR isn’t involved in any match on Sunday and that everyone feels like they got a fair shake after the matches end. This being the NWSL, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
There are all kinds of graphics and commentary about what must happen for Louisville to make the playoffs, but I would rather focus on what Louisville must do, and that is win. I still maintain that a 7th or 8th place finish is bad for the long-term future of the club, but I wouldn’t want the team to not try for a playoff spot. Recency bias will always make you focus on the near-term past and the decisions that went against them, but this team has dropped plenty of points this season from winning positions. Then again, I think that I saw that they have won more points from losing positions that any other team in the league this, so it would be hard to argue that any place that they finish wouldn’t be “fair”.
I haven’t seen any availability news yet, but Wang Shuang is back, and hopefully Ary Borges is fit. Jae Howell could have the questionable tag removed from her, but I personally think that her injury is best served by a few full months of rest (but as always, I don’t have any real insight into the specifics of it). The most observant watchers will notice that Howell’s injury has been listed as both “Hip” and “Ankle” so I think we can safely assume that she has been dealing with multiple issues. Jae looked like she was nearly ready to enter the match against the Pride, but she never got to the point of taking out her earrings (the NWSL won’t let you play in jewelry), and my wife swears that she knew that she wasn’t going to play because she wore them on the bench. I think starting both Borges and Howell coming off of injury is a bit risky, and I have the feeling that we may see Borges before Howell.
Every team except Chicago (who is my opinion is highly incented to lose and secure the number 3 pick) has something to play for. Louisville has shown up well against San Diego in their brief histories. I felt like despite going down 2 goals at home against the Pride, that Louisville never stopping trying to equalize and then ultimately win. I think this team plays best when it doesn’t try to overthink things. I think that Louisville will try to set up for quick counters and maybe have a new set piece in their locker (there was no media availability at any practice this week, so I don’t have any insider info related to the set piece comment). I think game theory goes out the window once the match starts, so I don’t believe any team will be scoreboard watching and even if there is word that the Thorns are winning comfortably, I don’t expect San Diego to do anything other than press hard for a win. The NWSL Shield would be a huge achievement for a club in its second year. In my opinion, it is still trophy #1 regardless of what anybody else says or believes (any league with a balanced schedule only does playoffs as a money grab…and no value judgement on money grabs, but the table is definitive proof of the best team for a season).
Louisville 3 Orlando 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
It still might be too little, too late but Louisville has given themselves a fighting chance to make the playoffs for the first time, if things break their way next Sunday. The overall performance was marginally better than the previous few, but the spirit of the team was noticeably improved from the last few matches.
Let’s get the officials out of the way first. As previously mentioned, I believe that most officials employed by this league are cowardly by nature and avoid making tough and unpopular calls when they can avoid it. Here is where I believe that VAR actually helps. The penalty awarded to Orlando was 100% a foul in the box (just like last week's VAR overturn was on DeMelo). Since it was a challenge by Aylmer on Marta with the Orlando player moving away from the goal and with her back to it, it almost went unnoticed. Either the on-field official didn’t see it (shame on him) or he did and was too cowardly to blow his whistle (double-shame on him). VAR got it right and Louisville went down 0-1. After the stoppage in play when Madril was down and with Louisville already trailing 0-2, Louisville’s captain (Erceg) gave the linesman an earful in full view of the crowd and at a volume loud enough that several sections of the stadium had to hear it. I thought to myself, “well, that’s a yellow card” but nothing came of it other than a few calls started to go Louisville’s way afterwards. This league needs more competent officials and officials that can manage a match effectively. The officiating has been a “side-show” in the last few matches when the goal should be to be invisible.
On to the main show…on the whole, it was a match dictated by mistakes with Orlando making one more gross error than Louisville. The penalties ended up cancelling each other out, and both teams had singular moments of brilliance. Abello’s goal for Orlando was terrific, but maybe Lester and Lund both could have done a little better. That might be a little unfair to Kaite based on the ferocity of the shot, but she did seem to react to it late. Conversely, Louisville finally got a decent team goal from open play. Pickett started the move with a beautiful pass into Kgatlana who in turn relayed another good ball into Davis for the goal. The key in transition is to be accurate and quick, and it paid off here. Kgatlana’s final balls into her teammates hadn’t been great up to this point in the match, but she got this one 100% right. Davis still had to more to do on the finish, and the slide likely helped her keep the ball down and on target. My favorite part of the goal was that none of the passes were over-thought, but incredibly precise. Finally, Orlando’s keeper Moorhouse, let in a howler and further embarrassed herself by complaining to the officials. VAR took a brief look and very quickly deemed Moorhouse to be a cry-baby. Aylmer was closest to her but did absolutely nothing to interfere with the keeper who frankly initiated the contact on Aylmer. It was a poor look and outcome for Orlando’s keeper, but she has nobody to blame but herself.
Now, I am sure you recall that Louisville won its last two matches last season and all that did was prevent them from taking Emily Madril in the draft. There is an unnecessary stigma to finishing in last place (when there is no relegation). Louisville has probably secured not finishing in last place. After the rest of the weekend’s matches, we will have a better picture of what Louisville has to do to either make the playoffs or get a decent draft pick. A win is necessary to make the playoffs, and Louisville has tended to play well against San Diego. They have faced San Diego 3 times, and the Wave has never scored against Louisville (with Louisville only scoring a single goal). The Wave could have several things to play for, so the match will likely be a good one with both teams looking to get on the front foot early.
Louisville 3 Orlando 2 Player Ratings
For the first time in their history, Louisville overcame a 2 goal deficit to take all 3 points. Things will have to break their way for it to ultimately matter, but on the night you take the result.
Lund-6: Not her best night but it won't matter to her.
Pickett-6: Still not up to her excellent standards, but grew into the game.
Erceg-8: Bonus point for deservedly giving the refs hell.
Lester-6: Probably a bit at fault for the second Orlando goal.
Milliet-6: Got beaten a few times, but was decent in attack.
Aylmer-5: Gave up a needless penalty.
Pikkujämsä-7: Deputized well for Borges.
DeMelo-7: Won the penalty for Nadim's goal, but still is not quite up to her pre-World Cup form.
Kgatlana-8: Excellent. Showed her real quality tonight.
Nadim-7: Calmly converted her penalty.
Monaghan-6: Not involved much and subbed off early.
Louisville v Orlando Pre Match Thoughts
I am somewhat of two minds going into Friday's last match at home versus Orlando. I remain convinced that in the long run, the club would be better off with the 3rd or 4th draft pick in next year's draft versus finishing 7th or 8th place, but I am never going to actively root for this team to lose. Knowing that my cheering them on has virtually no effect on the outcome of a match means that I can do as a normally do and also expect what we as a fanbase have typically gotten recently.
To me (and as always possibly only me) the players have played their most recent matches like they are each carrying a 10-pound weight around their necks. It is always a fine line between playing with a fire in your belly versus a weight around your neck. The lack of goals recently has to be weighing on the players and I personally think it shows in their shot selection. In his media availability today, Coach Björkegren lamented the squandered opportunities and stated that he felt that all of the breaks seemed to be going against Louisville recently. That's difficult to argue. However, it can also be argued that Louisville simply hasn't created enough good chances to score, especially in the box. You can argue a crossbar here and a post there, but the fact remains that this team has been creatively stagnant for a while now, with no signs of improvement.
The good news is that creativity isn't the only way to score goals and I would say that Louisville desperately needs to see one go in regardless of its nature… if I thought it mattered. The bigger issues with this team will take an offseason to try to fix, so for now any kind of result would be good for morale (if not for their draft position), but morale will probably be fine anyway when they start the season fresh next year. I think a 2-2 draw would do wonders for this team’s confidence, but then it would likely be another 5 months before they played another meaningful match, so frankly it doesn't really matter other than some sort of temporary relief. Like I said, I am of two minds.
This team desperately needs a consistent goal scorer AND/OR to be able to slice through teams with ball movement. A good draft pick could facilitate the former, but the latter will likely require a coaching shake-up. I think you are kidding yourself if you think we are getting the same set up next year as we have seen this season.
I don't have much to say about Orlando other than to wonder how Messiah Bright was available at 21 for them to select this year. Louisville wishes they had Orlando's draft from last year, which once again makes my point about winning meaningless games. Louisville's games are not technically meaningless yet, but they haven't looked like a playoff team recently, so any last second change in form would be completely against the trend.
Chicago 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I figure that any person that comes to this space to read my ramblings appreciates my honest opinion on the performance of this team. This post, while still my opinion, I will file under the “hard truths” category. They may not be your truths, but it is only the sum of what I am seeing and how I think this team should move forward.
This group of players gives the impression that they no longer want to listen to the coaching staff as currently comprised. Nothing on Saturday night looked cohesive. The players were individually trying to win the match, but if there was a plan to do it together, it didn't translate to my screen. It reminded me of year one of this club. I was 100% not surprised by this performance either. There are too many players on this team that give the impression that they can't wait for this season to be over.
I don't believe the playoffs are in the cards, and I don't think the team will make a coaching change until the end of the season. The current setup gives them a realistic shot at the bottom of the table and the number 3 overall pick in next year's draft. That may seem harsh, but at this point there is way more value to the club in getting a better draft pick than trying to achieve some imaginary achievement like “not as bad as last year” or “in the playoff hunt”. The psyche of a professional athlete is surely strong enough to overcome the temporary negative effects of finishing 11th or 12th when weighed against the value of the 3rd or 4th pick vs. the 7th or 8th pick you get for finishing 7th or 8th. I don’t know what the club leadership will do, I only know what I would do: politely roll out a respectable team for these last two matches, thank the coach at the end of the season, not renew his contract (and maybe not just his), and quietly expect that the status quo will generate the expected results and if things go the right/wrong way (depending on your perspective) get a decent pick in next year’s first round (anything after the first 5 or 6 picks is just as likely to be bust vs. boom). I suspect there is a portion of the fanbase that will take the apologetic view that a playoff push is “not impossible”, but I will always take the more evidence-based approach to say that this season is effectively over.
I am a huge fan of getting the calls on the pitch right, but the day I feared when VAR arrived in the NWSL arrived last night. Subtract the intervention of the VAR officials in last night’s match, and I think it was a decently officiated match. All three VAR reviews were called correctly on the field in my opinion and if VAR had not been in play there would have been few complaints. All VAR did in this case was look at the wrong footage, overturn a correct on the field call and waste four minutes at the end of the match when it was effectively over. On the first instance, the broadcast and I have to assume the VAR itself was showing a completely irrelevant offside decision to the on-field official. Who knows if it was a technical glitch or incompetence, but neither is a good look and both could be true. The second was a VAR nightmare. The correct call was made on the field in real time. There is this fallacious belief that a zoomed-in frame-by-frame examination is a closer reflection of the truth, when actually the real-time occurrence is more accurate. I maintain that it is irrelevant to some degree whether or not the defender got the first touch. Anywhere else on the pitch, it is a foul and you move on. The defender made illegal contact on DeMelo, and that should have been the end of the story. On the last review, once again I think the non-call on the field was correct. In this case I think the relevant rules are “serious foul play” or “violent conduct”. In practice, this sometimes gets translated to “dangerous play”. In my book, this one is fairly simple when held up to this standard of officiating: who initiated the dangerous play. In the case of last night, it was clearly the player attempting to head the ball off of a high boot that initiated the situation moving into dangerous play. A high boot in and of itself is not illegal and Kanu has no clear view of the defender when she raised her boot. The non-call was the correct one.
VAR aside, Louisville’s performance was typical of the last few matches and therefore not good enough for 1 point, let alone 3. It is true that 2 shots hit the crossbar, but I see that more as a sign of a desperate offensive mindset versus evidence of “bad luck”. Both of those goals would have been truly great, and neither of them would have made me feel any better about the team’s offensive cohesion. Only individual brilliance was going to achieve anything last night, and they were close to achieving that brilliance but not close enough. Defensively, they lacked a bit of organization, and a better team would have made them pay even more dearly.
This is also the point of the season where I have to decide whether or not to be mentally invested in these last two matches. I think the answer for me right now is that I will once again “run out the string” and post my normal items, but don’t expect anything super inciteful from me until the offseason.
Chicago 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
Louisville may not be technically eliminated, but I have written them off. Changes need to be made.
Lund-6: Maybe should have done better on the goal.
Pickett-5: Distribution from the back was off, but has to be furious that no one was on the back post for her fantastic corner.
Erceg-5: Maybe unfair but gets the captain's downgrade for a poor team performance.
Lester-5: Not terrible, but hard to say anything more positive.
Milliet-5: Not her best match defensively as she got beaten for pace a few times.
Pikkujämsä-5: Hit the post, but Yuki made her look foolish more than once.
Fischer-6: Hit the post as well. Disappointing to see her subbed off.
DeMelo-5: Not the same player since the World Cup.
Monaghan-5: Not very memorable.
Nadim-6: Only individual brilliance was going to do anything tonight, and at least she tried.
Davis-5: Don’t like her on the right.
Chicago v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
It’s Louisville versus Chicago for the fourth time this season and the visiting team will be looking to make it 4 wins in a season against their hosts. Only 3 points will matter for either team, so hopefully we see an open and entertaining match.
Louisville was probably extra thankful for the international break, but neither Baggett nor Howell will be fit enough to make the match day squad. Pickett considers herself fully healthy, so that is welcome news. A few international players might be last minute calls to make the match day 18.
Everyone around the team is fully aware that it is 3 points or bust time. I don't get the sense that anyone is carrying any extra nervousness, but one would hope that they are carrying that extra little bit of intensity. A win in Chicago could really set off a late playoff push. Louisville has a history of playing well late in the season, but the playoffs haven't been in reach in the previous two campaigns. I will say that I am hopeful for a late push, but my observations to date don’t make me optimistic about getting 9 points from 3 matches.
In more positive news, the Lou City and Racing Foundation raised over $300,000 as a result of the Soccer Ball on Wednesday. It's always fun to see the players and coaches outside of the normal confines of the training ground and the stadium. I got to chat with Howell for a few minutes and tried to give her my jacket to wear for an upcoming player entrance. She politely declined and shared her plans to celebrate one of her favorite footballers at the upcoming home finale. Also, a player that will remain nameless was seen carrying out an unopened bottle of wine from the event. (Each table was provided a bottle of white and red, so plenty of wine was consumed and also left unconsuned.) Overall it was a fun night for a good cause.
Louisville 0 Houston 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
Louisville is starting to look like a team that has simply run of out steam and ideas. The team has made strides this season, but it looks like they will ultimately come up short of their playoff dream.
There were some frankly candid quotes from Erceg last night. I think it would be tough not to agree with her assessment of the situation. The injuries at this point in the season start to pile up and if you don't have a full squad that is ready to go it can make life very difficult. We know that Coach Björkegren will always play a player he trusts out of position over a like-for-like player that he doesn't. I agree with Erceg's assessment that Pokorny is “not a defensive player” but also that she is “stepping in to do a job that's not hers.” The truth is that the roster isn't balanced with enough defensive depth. Louisville simply carries too many players that don't consistently tribute much to the team. There are a plethora of reasons, but those reasons aren't of much solace right now.
It's probably time to start asking the question if Coach Björkegren has done enough winning to secure a third season. I think the evidence likely points to “no”, and I think we have started to see signs of regression since the return of the World Cup players. This team might need a bigger personality to lead the squad next year because unless something drastic happens, I think you can firmly label it “veteran squad”. This team is a piece or two away from challenging next year, but needs to get more from some players that Björkegren simply hasn't gotten. I won't write his obituary yet, but I think it's coming.
I think Erceg's most telling quote from last night was “we stopped playing as a team.” The current starting XI are a disjointed group of players that don't seem to have any real connection with each other on the pitch. While they have been scoring some goals, there hasn't been much creativity recently. The win over Portland patched over that weakness to some degree as that goals in that match were more of a “scrappy” nature. Louisville has seemed to lose its ability to cut through a defense. Maybe they weren't ever good at it. They need to find a way to attempt to score a team goal because the individual efforts have dried up.
Louisville 0 Houston 1 Player Ratings
Louisville seemed to run out of attacking ideas and were a little too undisciplined on defense and ultimately it cost them all three points. The results at the end of the weekend will determine how much hope this team still has of making the playoffs.
Lund-6: Pretty standard performance from her.
Milliet-6: Tried to get some attacking going but couldn't find anyone to finish a pass.
Erceg-7: Solid and found Pickett on one of Louisville's best chances.
Lester-6: Didn't close the wing down quick enough on the goal.
Pokorny-6: Good in attack, but probably not disciplined enough to play outer back.
Pikkujämsä-6: Had to cover at the back more than she would have wanted.
Borges-6: Better than her most recent performances and had a headed opportunity saved.
DeMelo-7: Tried to drag the team back, but lacked that final bit of quality.
Davis-6: Had a golden opportunity on the breakaway but couldn't finish it.
Nadim-6: Lashed a good shot on target towards Campbell that produced a fine save.
Kgatlana-6: Was all over the place in the first half, but kind of disappeared in the second half.
Louisville v Houston Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Madeline Mullenbach
It's Louisville vs. Houston for the 4th time this season, and both teams will be looking to get all 3 points. I personally think that while they would never admit it Houston has pulled the plug on this season and would see any last ditch playoff push as a bonus to their season. Louisville has great incentive to come out early and try to put Houston away before they get any momentum.
Fatigue seemed to be the word of the day during Wednesday's media availability. I would agree that fatigue played a large part in Louisville's performance on Saturday but they will have to shake that off against Houston. As for the “new manager bump”, that is really explained by what happens right before the sacking of the previous manager which is usually a below average run of form. Naturally the form with the new manager will return to the mean, but the best study I have seen shows that new managers get about 1.3 points per match compared to average of 1.0 points per match prior to their hiring. It's not nothing, but it isn't definitive either. In the NWSL specifically, the margins are so fine that almost any result can be seen a “noise” in the context of the season. Louisville hasn't been great at creating goals through incisive ball movement recently (their 3 September goals coming from corners and the mistake made by the Reign), so they definitely want to get going from that perspective if they are to make a playoff push.
I am a little caught between two minds when I think about how the NWSL should have handled the scheduling once they knew the four Challenge Cup semifinalists. Part of me wishes that they would have pushed back the Louisville/Houston match to Saturday or Sunday once they new that Louisville could potentially be playing on super short rest on Saturday against the Courage. On the other hand, nobody likes a last minute change in the schedule that could effect the fans’ availability to attend a match. Therefore, we will just have to live with a Friday evening kickoff even though Louisville would probably have appreciated an extra day or two of rest.
There was a small tidbit that I forgot to include from my Post Match Thoughts piece on the Challenge Cup Final. I got the chance to meet Arsenal legend and quadruple winner Leanne Sanderson at the match. We chatted briefly as I kept her up to date on Arsenal's Champions League qualifier which they ultimately lost on penalties to both of our chagrin. Anyway, she made it a point to say goodbye to me before we left the stadium. She is an absolute treasure and I will have very strong words for anyone who has anything other that glowing things to say about her.
Louisville will be in a position for the next three league rounds to play either the first or second match of the weekend. It will give Louisville the chance to put up points early in the weekend. Hopefully they take advantage of this and post 3 points every match until the final one in San Diego where there will be (thankfully) simultaneous kickoffs to end the league season. Just like the conventional wisdom on penalty shootouts, you like to “go first” to out pressure on your opponents, but run the risk of having the tables turned on you if you don't take advantage.
Challenge Cup Final Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
I will forgo my traditional format to some degree and touch a little more on the big picture in this post. Let's get the painful stuff out of the way first.
The Courage were the better team on the day once again. You can't really say anything other than Kerolin's goal was a fine finish from a tough angle and that Manaka Matsukubo's goal was an absolute stunner. Those things happen in soccer and you just have to accept it and congratulate you opponent.
Louisville didn't play poorly on the day, especially given the circumstances. I entered this week of the opinion that I was sad to see the Challenge Cup go and now I have done a complete 180 to say that I am glad to see the back of it and “good riddance.” I still like the idea of a cup competition, but it has to be better and the NWSL has to find the right partner to televise it. The TV partnership with CBS/Paramount has outlived its usefulness and the league needs to move on. It was extremely detrimental to Louisville to have a 12:30 PM kickoff locked in after the travel day they had on Thursday. The lack of flexibility in the CBS schedule especially on the weekends in the fall meant that there were limited time spots. Ironically, it didn't even matter because CBS didn't show most of the match due to the weather delay. Broadcast television can die if we collectively have to will to euthanize it. It is no longer needed and if we can get over the misguided idea of having to have big events aired on “Big CBS” or “Big NBC”, etc. we can move to a better system.
The coaches and players won't make excuses and the Courage have no need to apologize for winning, but I cannot think of another competition where you don't know where you will be playing on such short notice. The idea of playing a semifinal on Wednesday and a final on Saturday is laughable and the NWSL has proven itself unserious once again for backing itself into a corner. Fortunately, Louisville will get a couple of days off to recover before preparing for Houston and trying to make a playoff push.
As tough as it is to lose a cup final as a fan it pales in comparison to losing one as a player. Both Milliet and Lund looked absolutely miserable when I talked to them after the match. Coach Björkegren was a little less sad, but it's definitely a feeling you don't want to repeat.
If it cheers you up at all, I can tell you that I was less than impressed with WakeMed Park. To call it a “dump” would be an insult to dumps. The field was fine and there seemed to be a great sense of pride in how quickly it drained. On the other hand it is an anonymous stadium in an anonymous part of an anonymous “city”. I estimate that only 10-15% of the seats have chair backs. There was absolutely no character to the park. It's like if Mitt Romney was a soccer stadium. Appreciate Lynn Family Stadium because it really is quite a gem in this league.
I will briefly pause my embargo on the word “deserve” to say that the North Carolina players deserve a better place to play and I will say that 95% of the fans do as well. The other 5%, who yelled at an injured DeMelo that she “hurt herself” and was “wasting time” deserve WakeMed Park and its complete pathological lack of charm.
The small crowd that remained after the rain delay was pretty good. This is the second stadium I have visited where the fans got involved in a simple chant. This time it was a simple alternating “NC” on one side of the field and “Courage” on the opposite site. It was signaled and led by the waving of a giant flags. It was effective and makes me wonder why we can't get something simple like this figured out at Lynn.
At some point hopefully (maybe when the prize money gets deposited in their accounts) the players will look back fondly on the run that they made in this competition. They represented the city well and exceeded expectations. I just hope it hasn't drained the energy from them so that they can make a real playoff push. I think the big takeaway from this competition and the season so far is that Louisville's 1 through 11 are as good as any in the league but that the back end of the roster still needs some development. They need out least one more reliable outside back and a little more midfield depth. The quantity of injuries and absences caught up to them in this match.
North Carolina Louisville Challenge Cup Final Player Ratings
Louisville fought valiantly but 2 moments of brilliance meant the Courage retained the Challenge Cup. It was a good and entertaining run but too many key players were missing to cause the Courage enough problems.
Lund-8: Brilliant but it wasn'tenough.
Holloway-5: Got beaten by Kerolin on the goal, but might have been slowed by an injury.
Erceg-6: Led the team well.
Lester-5: Made some really questionable attacking decisions in the first half.
Milliet-7: Had to play both left and right back and did well.
Pikkujämsä-7: Had a solid effort.
Borges-6: Didn't look like her usual self for the 2nd consecutive match.
DeMelo-7: Tried to get the Louisville attack going but ultimately couldn't.
Monaghan-6: Missed a decent early chance.
Davis-7: Led the line admirably.
Kgatlana-6: Created some problems but not enough.
North Carolina v Louisville Challenge Cup Final Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images (Jaylynn Nash)
It's Louisville's first NWSL competition final and of course their nemesis, the North Carolina Courage stand in their way. The Courage are the defending champions, but looked rather unconvincing in their late win vs. the Current. Both teams will be playing on short rest, so it could be a test if conditioning as much as anything else.
I don't think Louisville will rotate much from the semifinal on Saturday. North Carolina could be tempted to rotate a bit with an eye on the Shield/Playoffs but I wouldn't expect them to rotate as much as the Reign did on Wednesday. Louisville was not outplayed in either match earlier this season, but ended up on the wrong side of thr scoreline due to a couple of key breaks that went North Carolina's way.
OL Reign 0 Louisville 1 Post Match Thoughts
Elli Pikkujämsä said it was not a pretty match, but the results for Louisville were beautiful. The game was a reminder of the fine margins that exist in this league, but it was nice to see things break Louisville's way for once in this match-up.
Louisville was absolutely gifted the goal and it is the type of thing which poor Sam Hiatt will have to live with, unfortunately for her. Nevertheless, Davis still had plenty to do and took the one really good chance she had with clinical precision. The Reign (I thought rather admirably) stayed consistent in their approach to the cup by starting a heavily rotated lineup. That decision likely cost them a chance at the finals. I do feel a bit sorry for the Reign because a victory would still have meant a trip to North Carolina. Their focus can now shift fully to the playoff race, if it wasn't there already.
The match definitely had a “cup tie” feel. Louisville was visibly wobbly early and they frankly never did look very comfortable in possession. On the opposite side of the ball, the Reign had half chances, but never an absolutely golden one other than Huitema's chance that I think Lund had covered at the near post at least.
Conversely Louisville's defense on the night was excellent. I have to believe that having an experienced leader like Erceg at the back helped the team settle. The last 15 minutes or so could be classified as “desperate defending”, but I think you saw enough energy and desire to keep a clean sheet to categorize it more favorably as “committed”. Pikkujämsä was singled out by Björkegren but the entire back line played really well.
I thought this might have been Lund’s best match of the season. She didn't have to make many saves, but her positioning and decision making were near perfect. Other than an odd bounce that she ultimately handed awkwardly, I can't think of a foot that she put wrong. Much of the credit can go to the defenders in front of her, but this was a towering, confident performance.
The team will spend Thursday traveling to Cary/Raleigh, so this has turned into quite a long week for the players. I thought Demelo looked like her usual self, but Louisville would benefit greatly if Howell can be ready by Saturday to get some minutes. I still don't think she will start, but I do think gving Fischer some minutes will be something to look out for too.
OL Reign 0 Louisville 1 Player Ratings
It wasn't pretty, but Louisville got the job done. It's on to Cary on Saturday to play in a final.
Lund-8: A masterclass in goal for her. Really took charge during the last minutes.
Holloway-8: Massive to play most of the game with a yellow card.
Erceg-8: The leader Louisville needed on the night.
Lester-8: Kept just about everything in front of her.
Milliet-8: Not nearly as involved offensively, but solid as ever on defense.
Pikkujämsä-7: Won the ball at critical times.
Borges-6: Not really involved as much as usual.
DeMelo-7: Starting to play her way back into peak form.
Monaghan-7: Found herself in a dangerous attacking spot more than once.
Davis-9: A stone-cold killer in this match. Had one good chance and buried it.
Kgatlana-7: Still nervy on defense, but was the most frequent attacking outlet.
OL Reign v Louisville Challenge Cup Semifinal Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville will play in its first ever NWSL knockout match on Wednesday night at 10 PM Eastern time in Seattle. Knockout matches are different, regardless of any protestations of players and coaches stating that they treat them like any other match. It is virtually impossible to play them in the same manner in which you would play a normal league match. In my opinion, knockout matches tend to be cagier affairs with neither team wanting to make an early mistake. I believe the players and coaches when they say the preparations are mostly the same (both Lund and Björkegren confirmed that penalty taking had taken up some of their preparation time in the last week or so). However, the reality of “win or go home” is something that no human can reasonably ignore.
Still, there is no way that Louisville will come out and play demonstrably different than they have all season. There was every reason to be conservative against Portland and to their tremendous credit they simply didn't and got a fantastic result. DeMelo will be back, but Coach Björkegren made it sound like Howell and Nadim would only be available from the bench and Baggett and Pickett didn't travel. I think Pickett’s absence is the key once again, but I agree with Coach Kim's assessment that Holloway overcame her early error to play a good match against Portland. It was something she didn't do in the brief chance that she got last season.
It will also be 6 midfield combinations in 6 matches for Louisville, but this time I suspect that the only change to the Starting XI will be DeMelo slotting into her normal spot with Wang now absent (maybe permanently?) due to her international obligations to the Chinese national team. I don’t believe that Wang has an option for 2024, so she could be allowed to stay in China to plot her next move. Louisville has plenty of cover at her position. Having Monaghan and Kgatlana on the pitch at the same time worked in the last match, so I think you stick with that.
As previously stated, I hate penalty shootouts even when I have no skin in the game, so I hope this match ends in regulation. There is a certain randomness to the outcome of any NWSL match, so adding that extra bit of randomness from a shootout is a bridge too far for me. Nonetheless, I will watch it if it comes to that, but will be miserable the entire time that I do so
Louisville 2 Portland 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Jordan Prather
There is lots of credit to go around for this match because it truly was a team victory. Only time will tell if this 3 points leads to something better on the horizon, but on the evening you couldn't ask for a better result, especially under the circumstances.
Louisville throughly outplayed Portland. Portland were poor on the night. That is not an excuse, but a circumstance that Louisville imposed on them. Missing Sophia Smith might be given as an excuse, but I don’t trade in excuses and believe you make no apologies when you get 3 points. A tremendous amount of credit must be given to the coaching staff. I don't think I would have set up to play Portland in their typical manner with the number of key players missing, but obviously the staff thought sticking with the usual game plan with a few tweaks was the right decision and they were proven 100% correct. Portland looked average, and frankly maybe they are average at best without Smith.
Even though I gave Rebecca Holloway a low rating out of principle, other than that moment of madness I thought she did really well. It's tough to say if making that early mistake sharpened her focus, but I give her full credit for shaking it off and rising to meet the challenge for the rest of the match. She will likely be called upon again on Wednesday, so I expect her to retain the focus she showed during the majority of this match.
Abby Erceg put in a great performance and was key in ensuring that Portland never really had many chances in the final stages of the match. Her value to the club this season cannot be overstated. She has to take a great deal of the credit in keeping her teammates focused after conceding early.
Thembi Kgatlana put in a tremendous attacking performance that was finally rewarded with a goal. To my eyes she is still to overly reliant on her right foot, but taking that extra touch to score the winner was very shrewd. Louisville attackers always seem to favor shooting at the near post and both she and Kanu had opportunities where I would have liked to see them challenge the keeper by going across the goal. The scoreline could have been much h more comfortable if Louisville had converted any of the 3 big chances that they missed. I give credit to Bella Bixby for keeping Portland in the match. It speaks volumes when your best player is your goalkeeper and you still lose 2-1.
Louisville will get Sunday off before practicing on Monday then flying out to Seattle. DeMelo will be available, but it's tough to say anything about the rest of the absentees. I think Howell is probably closest, but that is purely a guess.
Louisville 2 Portland 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville overcame an early mistake to finally beat Portland and the result was entirely fair. There should be tremendous belief in themselves and each other after such a good performance.
Lund-7: Fantastic in goal and in distribution.
Holloway-5: Had one costly error in an otherwise solid performance.
Erceg-8: Got a goal (or caused an own goal) and was great leading the back line.
Lester-7: Was a great CB partner for Erceg on the night.
Milliet-7: Another really good performance for Lo.
Pikkujämsä-7: Deputized for Howell superbly.
Borges-8: Absolutely bossed the midfield.
Wang-7: Was the best version of herself tonight.
Monaghan-6: A little unlucky not to score.
Davis-7: Had a really good performance leading the line.
Kgatlana-8: Scored a fantastic goal and was voted player of the match.
Louisville v Portland Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Racing Louisville Football Club
The main storyline for Louisville this weekend has to be the combined absences of DeMelo, Howell, Pickett, and Baggett. Baggett is natural cover for the midfield so her absence hurts almost as much as DeMelo and Howell. This guarantees that Louisville will be using its 5th different starting midfield in 5 matches.
Then there is the opponent: Portland. If ever you wanted your best possible midfield to be fully available it is against Portland. The Thorns honestly didn't have much trouble cutting through Louisville's midfield in the first match this season, so I wouldn't expect that they will have much trouble in the return match against a weakened Louisville squad.
Louisville will need to keep an eye on goal differential in this match. They currently have an equal or better differential than the 4 teams directly ahead of them in the standings. A heavy defeat would wipe that away and be truly devastating to their playoff hopes. I have never thought of Louisville's playing style as very pragmatic, so this could be a very dangerous match to go down by a goal early.
Usually I would say that Louisville needs come out and believe that they can win a match like this. However, I feel like a smash and grab is pretty much the only chance for a win here. The longer this match stays 0-0, the better I will feel. Louisville has been conceding quite a bit of possession recently, so I think you have to go into this match stating that you cannot under any circumstances give up a counterattacking goal.
I can't picture a scenario where Louisville will score “playing through” Portland, so the onus will definitely be on the strikers to create a moment of individual brilliance or to win a corner where you might get something from a set piece. Kgatlana has to find the balance between defending and attacking while she is on the pitch in this match. To me, she always defends on the aggressive side and is capable of picking up a yellow at almost any point. If she can find herself isolated in attack, I think she has to be encouraged to shoot because I have a feeling that she won't have too many attacking options aggressively following behind her.