America de Cali 0 Racing 2 Player Ratings

It wasn't the most beautiful match, but Racing was never in any real danger of losing. There is still much work to do, but there were some encouraging signs.

Lund-6: Made a few comfortable saves. We know all we need to know about Katie, so it was good for Sekany to get a few minutes.

Pickett-7: The defense was rarely troubled and Pickett got to be involved offensively quite a bit.

Erceg-7: She wasn't asked to do much, but played the whole match. It was a typical performance from her.

Wright-7: She started centrally, and seemed to be the more advanced of the 2 centerbacks during most attacks.

Milliet-6: Finally got a bit of a rest for once. She had a small nervy moment in the first half, but was solid otherwise.

Baggett-7: She scored a great goal and had another chance. It would be great to see her get some more game time this season.

Flint-6: I think it will take some time for me to adjust to watching Flint’s game. I didn't see anything to make me rate her performance other than average.

Fischer-8: She sees and attempts passes that others don't. Easily my player of the match.

Sears-6: Her raw talent is obvious, so give her some time. A more seasoned player easily scores on the chance she had denied in the first half.

DeMelo-7: She took her penalty excellently and was in the right place at the right time to win it. Conversely, she gave the ball away too much for my liking. Hopefully she’ll be her best self before the season starts.

Turner-6: Like Sears her talent is evident. I would have loved to see her finish off the chance that Fischer created for her.

Early Preseason Thoughts and Storylines

Racing had another busy offseason, and as the offseason transitions into preseason here are some thoughts and storylines to watch for in the preseason and the early part of the 2024 season.

Defensive depth: Even after the departure of Julia Lester, Racing has a fairly experienced defensive roster. The club is still carrying 6 signed defenders on its roster (although they are now missing Monaghan who could be deployed there), so I think that is a number that works for them. One thing to look for early in the year (and maybe in the preseason as an indicator) is fullback rotation and substitution. Lauren Milliet played 2789 minutes last year which was the most for any fullback in the league. In spite of being unavailable for 4 league matches and 2 cup matches, Carson Pickett had the 8th most minutes for a fullback last year with 2496. Look for the addition of Arin Wright to greatly reduce thr number of matches where both fullbacks play the full 90 minutes. Ideally, each starting fullback should be playing a 90 minute match followed by a 60-70 minute match. Right back may be open to full competition, but Arin Wright can play both sides. Regardless of how the defense lines up to start, expect more in-match changes this season.

Scoring goals: Here is a quick, but ultimately meaningless tidbit. Racing and Gotham (the “Champions”) had the exact same number of goals scored and conceded in the league last season. This yielded a championship for Gotham and 9th place for Racing. I consider Gotham rather “weak” champions and their form directly preceding the playoffs was frankly awful. Nevertheless, they ended up a champions which demonstrates either parity or general mediocrity depending on your perspective. I wouldn't plan on the “champions” having a plus one goal differential very often and my personal champion (Shield winners the Wave) topped the league table with a plus 9 goal difference scoring 31 and allowing 22. Even 31 scoring goals isn't a great return (the 2022 season had six teams score more than 31). I have a hunch that the league might have some truly dreadful teams this season and that means more goals will likely be scored per match.

All of this is to say that for Racing to be considered a real threat to enter the upper echelon of the league, they need to score more goals. I did a quick analysis of last year’s goals+assists in league and cup matches and came up with an average of G+A/90 minutes for each position group. I used the data and position assignments from the American Soccer Analysis website to do the analysis and then split each position group into thirds based on each players relative distance from the position average. Of note, and probably to nobody's surprise, Sophia Smith was the best performing striker, Megan Rapinoe was the best performing winger, Debinha was the best performing attacking midfielder, and Savannah DeMelo was the best performing central midfielder. There could be some debate about how players were classified, but regardless of that classification the analysis pretty clearly identified the high overperformers and underperformers. Based on each players performance I split each position group into thirds and classified players into either “Top Third”, “Middle Third”, and “Bottom Third”. Unfortunately for Racing they only has DeMelo and Erceg in the “Top Third” category for players that had over 1000 minutes. If you expand that to all players, Rebecca Holloway, Parker Goins, and Thembi Kgatlana are in the top third. The real problem for Racing is that their strikers and wingers underperformed in G+A/90 minutes when compared to the rest of the league. While the 3 players that had at least 1000 minutes were in the middle third, only Kirsten (Davis) Wright was in the top 50th percentile for her position group. Monaghan and Shuang were slightly above average when compared to the mean, but the winger category had so many low performers that the average was dragged down relative to the 50th percentile. That's a lot of numbers to throw out, but essentially my takeaway was that Racing simply didn't have enough of its key players in the Top Third of the league when it came down to goal contributions. Their offseason additions aren't NWSL proven goalscorers, so any additional goals this year are going to have to come from unproven players, or improvement in goal contribution rates from NWSL veterans.

For me, Kirsten Wright will need to be the key player to step up her goal contributions. Ary Borges could benefit by a change in position too. There is a spotty record for seeing goal production from other leagues translate into goal production in the NWSL, so while I don't think you can count it out, you definitely can't rely on it. Reilyn Turner might chip in a few, but even Messiah Bright for Orlando last year was just average compared to the striker group as a whole and I don't think saddling Turner with a 7 goal expectation is fair.

Goals need to come from somewhere which leads me to…

Scoring with possession in open play: This is just an assertion with no real data or evidence to back it up, but I believe that you can tell how effective a team is as an attacking entity based on how they score in open play. There is a way of thinking in some circles that says you can “steal” goals from being more effective than your opponents at set pieces and corners. Racing was pretty good at those last season in my opinion (I am unaware of a way to check their number of set piece goals compared to other teams). However, Racing seemed deficient in breaking down other teams when they had extended possession (again just a feeling that I wish I had a way to verify). What I can demonstrate (although this is done through my own coding system) is that Racing had 10 goals in transition last year compared to 6 in 2022, but only 6 with sustained possession compared to 12 in 2022. Set pieces combined with corners were about the same, but 2022 definitely had more set pieces and 2023 had more corners. Racing won and scored 5 penalties in 2023 compared to 2 in 2022.

The clear room for improvement in my mind is the slice labeled “with sustained possession”.

Managing Great Expectations: Everyone is allowed great expectations, but nobody is promised results. I get the feeling from players, Racing staff, and fans that they expect better things this season. It’s hard to argue with those expectations based on what has happened so far this offseason. Everybody loves Bev. Racing signed some “name” free agents and it appears that nearly everyone is healthy at the start of the season with only Clegg managing an injury and she could be ready early in the season. It’s a great way to start of the preseason.

However…

The fact of the matter is that Racing enters the 2024 with an unproven coach. “Unproven” is not meant by me to be used in a pejorative sense, just that we simply don’t have much evidence of what kind of a head coach Bev will be. Knowing this, I would like to say that “patience” should be the watch word with her. She may come out of the gate and be fantastic, and she might not. Neither is cause for overreaction. She must be given time whether she knocks it out of the park, strikes out or something in between.

Preseason is all about Plan A. The regular season is all about Plan B. In some extremely rare cases, Plan A works all of the time, and you never have to worry about Plan B. If you are Barcelona, you often get to march through large sections of a league season undefeated and mercilessly beating your opponents with Plan A. There is no “Barcelona” in the NWSL and really not even a Chelsea or Lyon. You are going to have to switch tactics to win sometimes, and that is likely the best measure of a head coach. The early indications on Bev are good, but everyone needs to remember that is all that they are. She isn’t always going to get it right. If we give her the grace to make some mistakes, we will all be better off.

As to the players, we really don’t know what we are going to get from them either. A very good early indication is that Bev told me after the first practice that she had to remind the players to ramp it down sometimes versus ramping it up. All of the players seem anxious to get going. There will be competition in some spots that there hasn’t been before. All of this is good for the team. The defense and midfield look solid, and the attack looks promising, but they still need to learn Bev’s system AND to learn to play cohesively inside of it. This preseason is shorter than last season so it will be interesting to watch how ready the players are by March 16th.

NWSL College Draft Thoughts

Before I get to the draft stuff (full disclosure: I wrote most of it prior to today's media availability so excuse any wild tonal shifts) I wanted to share my takeaways from the time Bev and Ryan spent talking to the media Tuesday morning. As always, bullet points probably make for easier communication and reading for this type of thing.

• Bev Yanez is so enthusiastic that it's hard to be in the same room with her and not get super excited. I immediately felt better about Racing's offseason as a whole and their approach to next year after listening to her for 5 minutes. I had to actively remind myself to calm down. I do wonder if Bev's exuberance will always serve her best. You want to believe that she can move mountains and transform paupers into kings when you hear her speak. However, I would advise that we all would be better served managing our expectations of her. She inevitably will need time to grow into the role of head coach and unreasonable expectations are unfair and we should manage them appropriately. I believe that the organization believes that she is a slam-dunk hire, and that's all that really matters.

• Bev did talk at some length about how the coaches collectively are preparing for the draft. She specifically called out Sergio and Mario for their scouting and player evaluation.

• Bev also shared that the “style” of this year’s team would be different than last season. When pressed on exactly what that meant she was appropriately cagey as you don't want to tip your hand until necessary. Personally, I think cohesion and players’ understanding their teammates’ strengths are the biggest room for growth, but there isn't any reason to suspect that Bev missed what we all saw last season which was a clear lack of being on the same page at some points.

• Bev's coaching staff will be augmented by one more assistant. In addition a couple more support staff will be added including a player experience staff member (In Racing’s first season, there was a Director of Player Experience, Brynn Sebring.) All of this seems close to being announced.

• Ryan Dell and Bev both shared that there were some player moves that hadn’t been announced yet. Expect a couple of those by week’s end by the sound of things.

• I asked Ryan Dell what he thought of the draft as a “player acquisition mechanism” and he stated that he saw it as more of a piece of the entire player acquisition process rather tham necessarily the primary mechanism. He also shared that he didn't really like the expansion draft and that he had worked the phone tirelessly to try to avoid losing a player.

Here is what I wrote yesterday (slightly edited with tibbits from today).

The 2024 NWSL College Draft is scheduled to take place on January 12th. As it stands right now, Racing Louisville will have 5 picks (6, 15, 29, 42, and 48). Let’s do a quick comparison to the 2019 Draft/Season to illustrate the leagues growth.

• In 2019, there were 36 picks in the four rounds. This year there will be 56.

• In 2019, the number of NWSL players was roughly 230. This year it will be roughly 360.

• In 2019, the number of opening day starters was 99. This year it will be 154.

• Players are expected to report on January 22nd according to Dell. This means a six-week-ish window for the preseason. A trip south and to Europe are likely with the European trip possibly being available to stream as part of a tournament or tournament-like event.

All of those represent about a 55% increase. The good news that the jobs in this league went up by 55% in five years. I won’t call it bad news, but it does mean the overall quality of the league could take a downturn if the teams don’t manage their rosters correctly. The number of starters in 2024 (154) would have made up approximately two thirds of the entire league in 2019. Quick expansion will do that to a league. It will be interesting to see if we detect a drop in the quality of play this season. I don’t personally believe that it was noticeable to a tremendous degree in the last two seasons, but at some point, continued expansion will make it noticeable to the average fan.

I personally believe that the draft is quickly becoming outdated and that smart teams will begin to treat it as a 2-round, if not single round, endeavor. Racing continues to put in a good amount of effect and resources into the draft and Ryan Dell shared that Racing held what he believed to be the first ever “Pro Day” for what I understood to be later round prospects. I am of the opinion (backed up by my own analysis here) that there are very quickly accelerating diminishing returns after the first few picks in the draft. However, I want to make a clear distinction between the numberer “pick” and the value of the players selected with that pick. The numbered pick has intial value in terms of how much it is worth prior to being used (Dell shared that he too sees picks as a tradable/negotiable assets). Once that pick has been exercised, its value is now player and team specific. Historically, most of your starter-level talent is coming out of the first 15-20 picks. If you see a team signing their 3rd and 4th round draft picks, that’s probably a sign that there is a rough season ahead (or possibly in Racing’s case that their “Pro Day” or scouting worked out as they are not in need of tremendous upgrades other than goal scorers which are a very rare commodity).

One thing to remember is that in essence, a draft pick in this league is just the exclusive right to negotiate a contract for a limited time. In other sports/leagues that use a draft process, players often have fewer options, especially equal or better ones past the draft for which they are eligible. In the NWSL any player drafted can still play outside of the league and Europe is becoming more attractive (Mexico and Australia too). In the NFL/MLB/NBA/NHL dratfts, the pick often has a salary expectation associated with it. Especially in the NFL, draft picks slot into a salary structure based on the pick. Even if this happens to some degree in the NWSL, the salaries aren't high enough to make this a real negotiation point. (I specifically asked Dell about how much insight the team gets into other teams contracts. He stated that he doesn't directly get information but that player agents help in letting clubs know what the going rates are.) When you get to a 3rd or 4th round pick, there isn't much value in those picks as things stand.

The draft kind of stinks for some of those 3rd and 4th rounders. Instead of getting to choose where they might be the best fit for the end of the roster, they get stuck in Portland or San Diego or (God-forbid) Cary, North Carolina for a winter knowing that they probably don’t have a shot. In a year like this, a winter in Utah, San Jose, Seattle, or Chicago might be more worth their time. I personally think Gotham FC has the right idea. Get out of the draft with as few picks as possible.

With Racing's announced trade of Hillary Beall to the Wave for their 2nd rounder next year (I would project this being in the 23-28 range) I think you could infer that Racing sees some, but not tremendous value in the pick. I think a second-round pick for a backup keeper who is never likely to play for Racing is about right.

I really would like to see the draft cut down to a single round or maybe two. That would be 28 players, and I think history has shown that identifying the quality of a player after that is difficult in the current system (no combine, no real NFL-style draft industrial complex).

The other draft-related tidbit: I am still quite bitter that Racing didn’t take Trinity Rodman. The longer time ticks on the more I am convinced that they should have taken her. There is nothing I nor anyone else can do about that now, but it did make me develop my own personal hierarchy of needs for player acquisition when specific needs aren’t an issue.

Priority 1: Goal Scorer. This can be a pure striker or a winger, but you need someone to give you consistent goals. Goals are the most important things. Find someone who can score them or prevent them.

Priority 2: Central Defender. See above.

Priority 3: Attacking Midfielder. Creating goals is next to scoring goals.

Priority 4: Midfielder. Controlling possession is always better than not.

Priority 5: Attacking/Defending Winger. If you could score you would be in the Priority 1 category.

Priority 6: Utility Player. You will have injuries. This is an effective way to plug the holes.

Priority 7: Goalkeeper. Unless you have Katie Lund or some other alleged “top keeper” you should be able to find one outside of the draft.

While I have a rather mild disdain for the NWSL Draft itself, I have a tremendous disdain for what quickly follows, which is the draft analysis or draft grade content. Immediately after the draft is definitely too early to grade a team’s draft and I would say that one is probably much safer evaluating it 2 years down the line and taking into account the offseason as a whole. It is a symptom of one of society’s ills that people feel the need to evaluate something immediately when time, data and perspective will surely enhance that evaluation. Sometimes it’s in your best interest to work with limited data when speed of decision is key. However, I can’t imagine much of anything with lower stakes than the analysis of a team’s draft performance the day or week after it occurs. All that is going to tell you is how close the picks matched up to the evaluator’s inherit biases. Anyway, if you think it’s fun to read those, I guess I would say, “to each their own”, but I wouldn’t put too much if any stock in it.

Racing Expansion Draft Player Power Rankings

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

There won’t be much to write about (hopefully?) on the Racing front until they make a coaching hire, and then it’s likely to be very light on news until the expansion draft. Like most other Racing fans, I have been keeping a mental list of which players I would protect in the upcoming expansion draft. Since the rules were released yesterday, we now know officially that Racing can protect 9 players (then a 10th after the first player is selected). I will share my list in a power rankings-style manner. Believe me when I say that my mental list has changed at the bottom to some degree, but I would say that 8 are pretty inarguable. I will provide a list of players that I believe merit consideration and then give my opinion.

No debate on inclusion or placement

1. Savannah DeMelo: She is number one on the list and I can’t imagine that there would be much debate, so I won’t bother making much of a case for her spot other than to say she has the longest signed contract with the team, and the team is obviously building around her.

2. Jaelin Howell: We all saw the impact of her missing a significant chunk of the playoff-push and the impact it had on things. She is signed through 2025, and is the club captain so there shouldn’t be much doubt that she only trails Sav in her importance to the organization.

3. Lauren Milliet: When Racing signed several new players to start the 2023 season and people were trying to predict what the starting XI would be I couldn’t believe the number of people who left her out of their top choice lists. That was my personal “tell me you don’t understand football without saying you don’t understand football” moment for the year. As Racing’s all-time appearance leader, this is a no-brainer. I understand if some might have her further down the list, but I would love to manage my “5 a side” team of Racing players vs. theirs any day.

   No Debate on inclusion, some debate on placement

4. Ary Borges: For half a second, I thought about ranking her as high as 3. I spent longer thinking about moving her down to 5. Ultimately, she is comfortably entrenched at 4. It is plausible that depending on how the offseason goes, that she could find herself playing further forward next season. Her flexibility and still somewhat untapped potential make her a lock to be on the list.

5. Abby Erceg: Will be 34 when next season starts, and that is really the only thing keeping her out of the 4th spot and potentially 3rd. Was the clear team MVP in my opinion.

6. Carson Pickett: Would be ranked potentially higher if Björkegren could have figured out how to get her teammates to use her better. I think she could have an even better season next year if the players in front of her figure out how they should be tailoring their runs to her crosses.

7. Elli Pikkujämsä: I think she tends to be overlooked sometimes, but her flexibility makes her an invaluable addition to the team.

8. Katie Lund: Racing needs to stop having 4 goalkeepers under contract. There is nothing that makes me think that any keeper will ever see the light of day as long as Lund is #1. She is so far above the league average from a metrics perspective, that losing her would essentially destroy the season anyway so I don’t really understand why she can’t just have single backup on the roster (and a bunch of non-rostered backups on the speed dial). Only ranked this low because I am super biased against keepers. I wouldn’t protect a single other keeper in the league if I were in charge of their rosters (maybe Campbell). By the way, the USWNT keepers were league average or worse in goals added this season.

   Tough call(s)

9. Kirsten Davis: This was a tough call, but I still think she has the potential to get better, and I started to see encouraging demonstrations that she gets some of the game’s finer nuances better than some of her teammates. I almost guarantee that she gets taken if let unprotected (and if I end up being wrong, I can’t wait to face the organizations that would pass on her).

10. Paige Monaghan: Was number nine on my mental list until the last quarter of the season. I think Davis outplayed her and I think it is slightly more likely that a team would look at her and be more likely to pick a different attacker.

11. Thembi Kgatlana: If I thought she fit better into Racing’s system and that her teammates understood how to make runs with her and be in her preferred target spots (she is never going to have enough space or time in this this league to dribble AND pick out a pass, so her teammates are going to have to be in the spots she instinctually passes to) I would rank her higher. Her (alleged) salary might scare off some people. She definitely could move higher depending on the coach, but I don’t think she fits in a pressing system. She is more effective in a counterattacking system at the moment.

12. Kayla Fischer: I think I would roll the dice and hope she flew under the radar enough for the two expansion teams not to pick her. If she does get taken, it wouldn’t be immediately damaging, but I have a feeling that Racing would ultimately regret it.

    Who I think will be taken

• Wang Shuang: (Bay FC) It makes too much sense. You can build a team around her. It would be much easier for her to manage her international travel from the Bay area compared to Louisville. It makes sense for both teams to get this done before the draft, but it could ultimately be left to draft day.

• Paige Monaghan (Utah Royals): I hope I am wrong here, but I think they ultimately take a look at the roster and decide to take the best player available and decide that while Kgatlana is likely the better player, Monaghan is the better value.

  Huge caveat: I don’t have any insight who might have a “no trade” clause, so ultimately this entire list could be thrown off by any player with said clause. I could imagine that Monaghan tried to negotiate one into her contract. It is also plausible that some of the international players have those in their contracts. I really don’t think any player would mind waiving that clause to be included in the draftable player pool, however. Time will tell.

Racing and Björkegren part company

Coach Björkegren and Racing Louisville officially parted ways on Friday. The press release mentioned his desire to return to Sweden to be with his family. It has to be difficult to relocate halfway across the world, regardless of the salary and opportunity. That being said, there was always something “temporary” in the was Coach Kim carried himself. I consistently ribbed him about his choice to wear long-sleeves in the brutal summer heat. He always attributed it to his time in Cyprus, but fair or not, I always interpreted it to some degree as an indication of his closed-off nature. He would always make it a point to speak with me at practices. A few times I was the only person in the room asking him questions at media availability (a particularly painful time was directly after the Challenge Cup final loss). I can only give you my impression, but he seemed like a person that would be hard to read or really know what was on his mind. He seemed private, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but sometimes private people aren’t the best communicators. I think we have enough examples from interviews with players to indicate that maybe his message wasn’t always getting across to players. I get that I am not the best oral communicator (I talk too fast, mumble, and say “uh” too much), so I am probably not the right person to talk about communication. The only thing that ultimately matters is if the player/coach communication relationship is working. I don’t think it was, especially in the latter half of the season.

For those who think parting ways was the right decision…

Full disclosure: This is the camp in which I find myself. Therefore, let me share my reservations and maybe touch on a few other items to ponder. Racing’s press release mentioned a “global search” for a new coach. I understand why they (must) say that, but I have to believe that Ryan Dell already knows his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ideal choices and has probably had some informal communication with them, even if it isn’t about the current coaching opening. Whenever there is a coaching change there is some non-zero probability that the next coach will be worse that the last one. We all know that there are plenty of lousy people who have had head coaching positions in this league, and I guarantee you there are some coaches who slithered under a rock after the Yates Report came out and who are just waiting for the heat to die down. There will be some who will be willing to hand the job to Bev Yanez with no questions asked, but frankly that is insulting to both the players and Coach Bev. It is entirely possible that she isn’t interested or doesn’t consider herself ready. Of course, the opposite could be true too. I said as much in one of my previous pieces, but this also puts more pressure squarely on the players’ shoulders. Personally, I thought they had the look of a team that didn’t quite “quit” on their coach, but definitely weren’t playing to save his job. It is the responsibility of the players to be coachable. If the next coach comes in and isn’t able to make much progress, you have to wonder if some of the players (even the star ones) might deserve more criticism than they received this season. Finally, lest we forget, Coach Kim saw something in Lauren Milliet that I don’t think even she saw in herself. Who knows if a different coach gets as much out of Savannah DeMelo as he did from pretty much day one. He did some good things here.

For those who think parting ways was the wrong decision…

Two years is a long time in the football world. Two 9th places finishes in a row is enough evidence for me to know that the club isn’t moving in the right direction quickly enough. Does anyone think Coach Björkegren was on the verge of some great breakthrough that was going to turn things around? Plus, I can pretty much guarantee you that he is happier today than he was two weeks ago. He frankly looked miserable to me in the last few months. Maybe he wasn’t but I have to think he is somewhat relieved to be going back to Europe. This club needs a coach who can communicate their system to the players more effectively, AND a coach who can get the most out of ALL of their players. I do believe that Björkegren made some questionable decisions to stick with players whose reputation might have been greater than his other options, but whose form definitely wasn’t up to par. His rotation/substitution patterns will always be up to debate, and I am not sure what choices he had due to player availability, but we do have evidence that what he did, didn’t work.

And now to the future…

At today’s media availability Ryan Dell was open about where Racing is in the hiring process. I asked specifically if he would be the final decision maker in the hiring process, and I am not sure I got a direct answer. He mentioned that “stakeholders” would be involved in the hiring process. I would imagine that while he might not have “final” say, he will be the primary decision maker. I think it bodes well for the team that the job (and the talent that is signed into 2024) is appealing enough to have agents already reaching out. It sounds like they would like the process to be fairly quick, although as Ryan hinted the NWSL background check is usually the bottleneck in the process. It is more important for there to be a coach in place who is able to talk player retention/attraction strategy than there is to be a formal announcement. I expect that the club will move rapidly even if we don’t officially hear a name for a while. I become more and more convinced that philosophy and strategy are less important in the NWSL than getting the absolute maximum out of the talent on the pitch. I hope the next head coach focuses on getting all of the players on the same page and I care less about which page or what book. I believe that being cohesive unit on the pitch is this team’s next hurdle and that finding the right coach who can unlock that challenge will be the correct hire.

Is Louisville Showing up for Racing?

Courtesy Gregory Ballos

Year 3 of the National Women’s Soccer League in Louisville has just recently finished, so I wanted to take a look back and see where the city and the team stand in relation to each other going into year 4. Perhaps the easiest measure is attendance year-over-year, but I think it is more nuanced than that (although it is probably that simple when you get down to it). Let’s save that metric until the end because I think it needs some context.

Fighting an uphill battle, but winning…from a certain point of view

Louisville is the smallest market in the NWSL when you compare the MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Area) of the teams in the league. Only the Raliegh-Cary NC is close at about 1.5 million people compared to Louisville’s 1.3 million. No other team plays in a market of less than 2 million people. Salt Lake City will join next year and have roughly the same population as Louisville. Let’s look at how Louisville stands up to the other markets when compared to how many fans per 10,000 people in the MSA attend their home matches.

Louisville did really well pulling in its population to matches in 2023 when compared to the rest of the league. It was in 4th place with a pretty healthy lead over 5th place Raleigh-Cary. It pulled in 3 times the rate of supposedly “soccer-mad” Los Angeles. However, Angel City pulled in 3 times the number of fans to its home matches this season. You can see the big issue: places like Los Angeles, San Diego and Seattle have so many more people to pull from.

The bright side is the Louisville’s attendance is on par with some much larger cities. I have a feeling that Chicago will soon have its issues sorted. Gotham’s stadium is in a suboptimal location. If things stay about the same elsewhere, then Louisville can probably sustain and match the Orlando, Houston, and Raleigh-Cary numbers.

I think 10,000 is probably the ultimate attendance goal for Racing, so let’s see how close applying the rate from the cities above them get them to 10,000.

Ultimately, Louisville would have to eclipse Portland’s current level of enthusiasm for the Thorns to reach 10,000.

Did the World Cup Help?

The short answer is “Yes”, but not to the same degree as in other markets. The table below includes the averages of pre- and post-World Cup attendance, but not “during”. Racing’s "Fill the Fam” occurred in the “during” section. I would have excluded it anyway, since it was not a “natural” attendance match. You can take issue with that if you like, and I will even give you alternative data points (attendance was 6,993 and the growth rate was 33% if you include “Fill the Fam”). I will discuss “Fill the Fam” later and explain in more detail why I would exclude it regardless of when it occurred.

I will forgo the semantic debate of whether 28% constitutes a “huge” boost in attendance, but it is distinctly measurable and could go up (or back down) next season. There could be even more debate if the numbers would have been better if the USWNT had performed “up to expectations” (personally, I think the rest of the world has started to catch up but will concede that I don’t follow international soccer enough or really at all, so my opinion here is not valuable).

My main concern is that the best figure that I have seen is that currently 13% of the country is “interested in women’s soccer. That number is surely growing, but the majority of the focus seems to be mostly targeted at the supposed 13% and trying to get a larger portion of that 13% to matches (13% of 1.3 million is roughly 170,000 by the way). If you are focused on the World Cup being a promotion engine for club soccer, and it definitely is, you are still leaving the unengaged off the table. Large cities can afford to do that, but Louisville cannot. Getting local women’s soccer fans to Lynn Family Stadium is and always should be the primary focus and growing the 13% higher year-by-year is the best way to boost attendance. However, you can’t forgo the people who might just come for the “Louisville” part of “Racing Louisville Football Club” and completely focus on the “(Women’s) Football” part.

The people who care, care deeply

I think Racing is disproportionately blessed by the number of people willing to give of their time to enhance the overall fan experience surrounding Racing. Bekki Morgan is one of the top-tier content creators for the NWSL as a whole and we are blessed to have her spend the lion’s share of her time covering Racing. There are several podcasts that cover Racing to a certain degree, but Racing has two that are fully dedicated to it in Butchertown Rundown (Bekki, Kaitlyn Whiteside and Tom Benson) and Lavender Louisville (Cody Ruth and Joe Havelda). Tyler Greever is almost always there when he can be to cover Racing for WDRB (WLKY previously). The main supporters group, the Lavender Legion, strives to make every player feel welcome and tries to make sure every player has their own banner (tougher than it sounds). There are countless hours spent writing, talking or contributing to Racing that you will probably never know about.

In return, the players care deeply about the community. Nothing against the first-year team, but I felt like there was a mass exodus out of Louisville as soon as the season was over. This year, while players will take vacations, many of them have homes in the community and should be around prior to training camp next season. Jae Howell has done tireless work with Down Syndrome of Louisville, and it is in great shape to get the $10,000 from the Nationwide Community Impact Award (vote here). Katie Lund and Carson Pickett raised over $14,000 for Norton’s Children’s Hospital Foundation. Almost every player that has been interviewed on Butchertown Rundown or Lavender Louisville has gone out of their way to compliment Louisville and the fan interactions they have around town. The club opens up its practices for season ticket holders to attend from time to time and has held townhalls/forums to hear from season ticket holders as well. Every fanbase thinks its special and they all are in their own way, but Louisville’s small town fell is unique for the league.

But the casual fans pay the bills.

When your league becomes big enough (think the NFL currently) there is almost no need to try to grow beyond die-hard fans from an attendance perspective. However, the NFL continues to grow and expand globally through fans who watch from home (or elsewhere). The media partnership contracts border on ridiculous. The NWSL isn’t near that size, so it still needs casual fans to fill the stadium. For simplicity’s sake, (even though I will admit that is a vast over-simplification) let’s say that the season ticket holders constitute the clear majority of die-hard fans. Through clear logic, we can assume that Racing’s season ticket holder base is less than 4,000 with the lowest attendance match of the year being 4,143. If the club were to consistently draw only 4,000 fans, I am not sure how sustainable the club would be long term, especially with a current valuation of $47 million on a 2023 revenue of 5.9 million (the data is behind a paywall some of the time but take my word for it.) The club is in no danger of folding, but relocation is another matter. Racing is likely still at the point where the majority of its ticket sales revenue comes from season ticket holders, but the casual fans make of the difference between likely being precarious to presumably being somewhat comfortable. The club will try to grow both, but they will need the casual fans to actually start paying for value, so…

Let’s talk Fill the Fam

Of the roughly 4,400 fans above the average who attended the Fill the Fam match I wonder how many paid face value to attend, and beyond that how many attended for free. I heard multiple anecdotes from people who bought tickets just to give them away. In the grand scheme of things, I wonder if this does more harm than good. Once you get something for free the first time, will you ever be willing to pay for it. I think there are many perspectives on this, with the “free-trial” seemingly being the current most popular marketing tool. However, a single match attendance to a Racing match doesn’t require you to take action to back out of attending the next one. There isn’t really an analogous comparison in my mind when it comes to tickets to a sporting event. The post “Fill the Fam” attendance rose 630 from 5,280 to 5,920. You can argue that the 630 lift came from “Fill the Fam”, but then you would have to completely ignore the World Cup lift. The truth is probably that there was some lift from both, but likely some that also had nothing to do with either.

Active non-attenders

Lou City, averaged 10,547 fans per match this season. I find it highly dubious that any more that 5% of those people are unaware of Racing Louisville FC. I’m not going to tell anyone how to spend their money, especially their disposable income, but I believe that there are 4,000 to 5,000 people who make the active, conscious decision not to attend Racing matches on a regular basis. I get that because I make the active decision to not attend Lou City matches (it looks like a picked a good year to stop based on the on-field performance too). If you are a regular reader of this space, you know that I don’t beat around the bush. Frankly, some of those 4,000 to 5,000 are making a misogynist decision. It’s not just the men either. I have talked to plenty of women too who without coming out and saying it, basically tell me that they aren’t interested in women’s sports. The same article where I got the 13% number says that fans of women’s soccer are 54% male. Regardless of gender, Lou City still essentially doubles Racing’s attendance. The point is that “awareness” of Racing in the local soccer community is probably high enough, so the team needs to figure out how to broaden awareness.

What’s (not) in a name?

Have you ever pondered how conceptually odd it is to say “Racing Louisville” to a person who has no familiarity with the city or the NWSL and expect that person to have any idea what you are talking about? Don’t get me wrong. I still love the name despite my embargo on using it on this site unless absolutely necessary for context (I will likely remove that embargo beginning next year as a year is long enough to protest something). However, it is a barrier to entry to fandom. I am convinced that attendance growth in the WSL was uniquely assisted by their national team’s success coupled with the fact that there was already brand recognition. As an example (you know what’s coming), Arsenal’s attendance grew 332% from the 21/22 season to the 22/23 season which saw an average attendance of 15,000. This year Arsenal’s two home matches at the Emirates Stadium have drawn 54,000 and 36,000 respectively. That’s simultaneously really exciting and frankly scary. Imagine the salaries that Arsenal could afford if they averaged 40,000 for the season (they are tired of being second fiddle to Chelsea recently, and frankly may just try to buy their way to closing the small gap). There is virtually nothing from preventing a player like Emily Fox from looking to England and deciding that the grass is greener. The NWSL’s talent with be further diluted through the addition of two new teams so it definitely doesn’t need to lose any more star players.

Racing Louisville on the other hand, had little to no global profile until the World Cup. Hopefully that exposure expanded their profile some, but as previously argued I don’t think it should be the sole mechanism for recognition. Racing has plenty of “stars” and if that talent was healthy enough and played cohesively enough, the winning it would have brought might have seen an additional attendance boost. Neither enough health and nor cohesive play was demonstrated to make the playoffs, let along win on a consistent basis. To some degree, only winning matters. However, you have to be ready to capitalize on it. If Racing comes out of the gates like gangbusters, will there be enough profile to raise awareness for new fans?

No NWSL team has a name that particularly screams “women’s soccer”, so I don’t think a name change is warranted or even possible. Therefore, you have to start to tie the name “Racing Louisville” to something meaningful beyond your traditional NWSL fans. If I had a solution or the magic formula, I certainly wouldn’t give it away for free. The branding has improved year over year, but is the team doing all that it can do to promote themselves?

Thankfully, some focused leadership has arrived.

One person who I believe is doing all that he can do is Ryan Dell. He has the USWNT bona fides, so you have to believe that he is all over the ways to pluck the low hanging fruit of getting more USWNT fans to games. That’s where I would start too. On the other hand, I personally wonder that since I sit in the small part of the Venn diagram that excludes international soccer fans but contains Racing fans, is the team trying to get more fans like me or are there enough of us to even warrant targeting. I will never be an international soccer fan. I have a moral objection to all flag-based competitions and while the women’s competitions are the least offenders, they still associate themselves with shady organizations like FIFA and the IOC. I may be a population of one, so maybe it doesn’t matter. However, I think there is still a chance to convert someone to a Racing fan first, then a general women’s soccer fan next. My moral objection to international soccer stops with my conscious and mine only, so I don’t fault anyone from following the women’s game on a broader international scale. People like this have come to Racing, but I don’t know if they are being actively recruited. This is food for thought more than an active suggestion.

One thing that Ryan should get immediately credit for is turning the idea of having a split Lou City/Racing season ticket package into a reality. I think the Racing side of things has been pushing this for a while, so I am glad to finally see it get done. Racing’s visibility has definitely increased since his arrival, whether or not he deserves the full credit. I think we are in good hands…but

The real numbers are 6565, 6048, and 5920.

Those are Racing’s Year 1, 2, and 3 attendance averages. The team played better in year 3 but fewer people saw it happen. The Year 2 to Year 3 drop isn’t bad considering the number of people who said they were “done” after the Yates Report. I think you know that I would like nothing more than to hang the blame for the decline on a couple of my favorite punching bags, but I just don’t think the data is there for me to do so. I think that likely the team lost some first-year fans due to the poor performance and some that were perhaps in it for the original novelty of having a professional women’s soccer team. I wish I had an answer to how to get this team to 10,000 fans on a regular basis, but the good news is that for once I feel like at the end of the season, all of us are rowing in the same direction. That is subject to change and the NWSL is a league seemingly always in danger of the other shoe dropping. Nevertheless, I am hopeful for an increased enthusiasm for this team that boosts attendance next year. Louisville shows up for this team in virtually every other way and the players always show up for the city, so let’s all strive for better in 2024.

Louisville's End of Season Report Card

I attempted to do a report card piece last year, but I abandoned it for obvious reasons. This year I hope and expect a calmer offseason, but you never know. With these type of things, I always struggle with what kind of scale to use. I will spare you the internal debate and just say that I decided to use my usual Player Rating scale. Here is the range for some reference. A “10” would be an elite, MVP level season. A “6” is a met expectations like season. A “1” would be a catastrophic season where the player individually caused multiple losses while hurling abuse at the fans. Obviously there will be no “10"s or “1"s so the rankings will be in my normal 5-8 range. Why not just call it the “End of the Season Player Ratings”? Well, I want to expand my report card to include the coaching staff and GM.

Goalkeepers

Katie Lund-7: She might be the best keeper in the league from a stats and traditional goalkeeper-like things perspective. If you feel like that should warrant a higher rating you aren’t wrong, but the goalkeeper position is evolving and I would like to see her be more confident and accurate with her feet. She is also prone to lapses in concentration, which are probably the 2 things keeping her from the USWNT. Both of those things are fixable, so I expect an even better season from her next year. Since she wasn't called on to make as many saves this season, there are less highlights but that is a good thing. The highest praise that I can give her is that I would protect her in the expansion draft. If I were in charge of a team, I would have a general rule not protect any keepers in an expansion draft, but her tangibles are so much more valuable than the rest of the keepers in the league I would break it without thinking twice.

All others-N/A: If this team carries 4 keepers next year there should be a criminal investigation. To be fair, at no point this season did all four keepers count against Louisville's active roster. We honestly have no idea how any of the other keepers would do in an NWSL league match and if things go as planned we will never find out. One would assume that the club hoped to use one of the keepers to trade for roster protection, but I have a feeling that I'm not the only one who thinks you can find a keeper on another NWSL roster that will be unprotected. Louisville has many more desirable options for the 2 expansion clubs.

Defenders

Abby Erceg-8: My MVP and it isn't close. She brought stability to the back line and while she wasn't infallible, she was reliable. It never felt like the defense was held together with duct tape like the previous two seasons. To have her play every single minute in the league (along with Milliet) was vital to the defense's vast improvement from last year. She also scored some goals which is always a bonus for a defender, and she also captained the team 14 times either from the start or after Howell was subbed off. My favorite moment was her telling the touchline official what's what during the Orlando match. Maybe the team won't have to rely on her as much next season, but I expect that she will come through again if they do.

Carson Pickett-7: I was beyond excited when Louisville signed her and she had a fine season, but you have to admit that the team didn't get the most out of her strengths. Defensively she was probably better than advertised, but didn't find as many willing runners onto her final balls as she did in North Carolina. I talk in my (hopefully upcoming?) fourth quarter review for the State of Louisville about how Louisville's players need to work for each other more intentionally, and it is no more apparent than here. Many of her crosses needed willing runners and her teammates just didn't make them.

Lauren Milliet-7.5: i think we can put and end to the “playing out of position” narrative on Milliet. She may one day find herself back in the midfield, but the right back position is hers. The next coaching staff may decide to use her differently (whether that is sooner or later is unclear at the moment), and I expect her to do well there too. Milliet is a footballer in the best sense of the term. I think any player that has ever played with her would pick her for their “5-a-side” team. She just gives you effort and passion regardless of the role. Plus she has the skills to match. It is inevitable that she is going to have some mismatches on defense from time to time because all wing defenders do. Her biggest growth this year was to figure out how to overcome those and have a plan B.

Julia Lester-6: She was called on out of necessity this season versus being a full-time starter. Some of that was down to an injury she picked up in preseason and some of it was down to Pikkujämsä's play upon slotting in next to Erceg. She now finds herself as the 3rd choice center back, but still had 13 appearances and a decent amount of minutes. She played a key role, but is really probably best suited for a backup. However, she could also be taken in the expansion draft, which would put a dent in Louisville's roster. Her 2024 option has been exercised and I would like her to stick around for another season at least.

Elli Pikkujämsä-7: Elli filled in at multiple midfield roles this season, but primarily played at center back where she has the most value to the team. If she is playing in the holding or defensive midfielder role, you can just about guarantee that it means that she is filling in for an injury. I think Louisville is served by her flexibility to a great degree, but would be better served having someone else at #2 on the depth chart behind Howell at CDM. When Pikkujämsä moved to Howell's spot, there was a downgrade in 2 positions in my opinion. It was a slight one replacing Howell with her, but a more significant one on the back line, especially early in the season when Holloway was the replacement for her at center back. With all that said, she had a very good season and here's hoping she spends a full season in the same spot next year.

Rebecca Holloway-5.5: This is the toughest rating I had to give. Let's talk about the good first. She came into preseason camp and beat out Satara Murray on the depth chart at center back (which might have had to do more with Murray, but she beat her regardless). That meant that she was an opening day starter which was something I don't think anyone who watched her during the first season thought was possible. She played well enough in the first two matches playing out of her natural position while Howell was getting back to full health. She came in again when Pickett was out, and that is tough to do when you aren’t getting a steady run of games. But…she always seems to have a mistake in her game. Too many times a glaring error cost Louisville a goal, or gave the opponent an easy chance. That merits a .5 point downgrade in my book.

Midfielders

Jaelin Howell-6.5: Jae probably played well enough to earn a 7 based on the matches in which she played, but she just didn't play often enough. As stated with Pikkujämsä, her absence usually means 2 positions are downgraded if Elli steps in for her. It demonstrates her importance to the team. She handled her first-year captaincy well. She was a terrific ambassador for the club. Since her value to the team is so high, her absences yield her a .5 point downgrade.

Savannah DeMelo-7: She was easily the pre-World Cup MVP for the team, but she never reached those heights after returning from the USWNT. I think she tries to do too much, and if you happened to catch my post match piece on San Diego you might have a little more insight into what I am about to say here. When Sav and Thembi both play tilted to the left side you have 2 dribblers that are very unlikely to see each other once they start their dribbling attack. I think this tended to bog things down a bit. I think the league has enough footage on her now to know how she likes to play and how to defend her in open play. It will be on her to change things up a bit next season.

Ary Borges-7: Full disclosure: I was skeptical of all of Louisville's new international players this season before I saw them play in an NWSL match. I include Kgatlana in this group as she never played for Louisville until this season. Pikkujämsä proved herself to be up to the task of an NWSL center back, Kgatlana's speed was as advertised but she hasn't scored enough to be called an overwhelming success and we’ll get to Kanu later. Borges impressed me as soon as she took the pitch in her first match. There is no magic formula for having success when you move to a new league, but she acted and played like she belonged from the get go. She had a tiny dip in form after the World Cup, but other than that her first season was an unqualified success. It will be interesting to see how she is deployed going forward because if she can score by moving further forward, then that is definitely what the team needs from her next season.

Kayla Fischer-6.5: It was a solid first year for Racing's only 2023 draft pick to make an impact on the team (the NWSL needs to start to phase out the draft by cutting it to 2 rounds/28 picks). She could be the immediate beneficiary if Borges moves further forward. She always brought energy, but did have the “deer in headlights” look a couple of times on defense. She will outgrow that and hopefully be used more in year two. I also think that she might not know her best position yet, so there is still plenty of upside.

Maddie Pokorny-6.5: Always full of energy and exactly the type of player you want to being on for the last 30 minutes of a match, Pokorny was a shrewd addition by Ryan Dell. I think she returns for another season. She will likely not start unless there are injuries, but her value as a sub is too good to pass up.

Jordan Baggett-6: At some point bad luck with injuries turns into “injury-prone”. I hope that isn't the case with Baggett, but she has to stay healthy in 2024 to have any chance of having her option for 2025 picked up. It's easy to see her quality when she is on the pitch. Being an overall number 3 pick means that the talent is there, but on this team she is likely only going to see substitute minutes like she did this year (other than the Challenge Cup matches). Her injury timing coinciding with Howell's was suboptimal, but I think Björkegren was always going to prefer playing Pikkujämsä in midfield and Lester at center back over Baggett in midfield and Pikkujämsä at center back.

Taylor Aylmer-5: Will likely be remembered for her costly errors over anything else. I don't think she would have been signed to complete the season without the injuries to Howell and Baggett. I can't imagine she is with the team next sesson.

Alex Chidiac-5: Barely played and didn't make much of an impact. She was a victim of the increased squad depth and quality.

Wang Shuang-6.5: You never knew what you were going to get with Wang. Sometimes she was brilliant and sometimes she was invisible. She dazzled everytime I saw her in practice and I'm not sure why it didn't always translate to the pitch when in mattered. I don’t think she will be back in Louisville next season, but might hang around in the league. If she does, she is just the type of player to score every time she plays against Louisville. On a more technically and tactically disciplined team, she likely shines like a diamond.

Forwards

Paige Monaghan-7: When Paige arrived in Louisville there seemed to be some expectation that she would switch to a defensive role. She was even listed as a defender until midway through the season. Regardless, she played in her natural role and contributed 3 goals in the league and a goal and 2 assists in the Challenge Cup. She appeared in all 22 league matches logging 58% of the available minutes. In my mind that is a solid season, but the player Gotham picked at 4 (Louisville acquired Monaghan, $150,000 in allocation money and an international spot through this trade) was Jenna Nighswonger who arguably had a better season (77% of the available minutes and 3 goals from midfield). She also coined “Big Purp”, so she gets a bonus point for that.

Nadia Nadim-5: Dr. Nadim never seemed to fit into this season's set-up due to her injury recovery. That's not her fault, but she probably isn't part of Louisville's plans in 2024.

Thembi Kgatlana-6.5: “Pikachu” (Nadim's nickname for Thembi) came in with all kinds of energy, but as electric as she was at times she probably will be disappointed in her goal and assist return on the season. If she sticks around (I believe that wealthy European clubs may inquire about her availability this offseason, and one could make an offer that Dell shouldn't refuse) she will need to adapt to her teammates and vice versa. Additionally, she defends like she is actively trying to pick up a yellow card, so she will need to fix that too.

Emina Ekic-5: While I have lived in Louisville most of my life, I am not “from” here and therefore I don't have any kind of weird emotional attachment to my high school or any player that went to high school in Louisville. Renamed “Player X” and stripped of her background, I think people would be ready to move on. She was injured in Australia and had next to zero impact on Louisville's season. She still has time to turn things around, but may want to pursue playing time elsewhere to get back to her best.

Jessica McDonald-5: Jess can look back on a long and successful career, but she obviously wasn't able to contribute much on the field this season. She might have another season in her, but it will likely be in another league.

Parker Goins-6: Her goals/minute rate (.7 per 90 min) was the best on the team, but she only logged 387 minutes in 15 appearances in the league and cup. One of the expansion teams could take a flyer on her and try to turn her into CeCe Kizer, or she could stay here and try to fight her way up the depth chart. I would like to see he subbed on earlier in matches if she stays in Louisville in her current role.

Kirsten Davis-7: She needlessly dropped behind Nadim on the depth chart, but still contributed after that decision. She scored the most goals from open play, which in my mind makes her extremely valuable. I expect a jump again next season. I just think she needs the right coach/coaching. She would likely be helped, not hindered by adding an additional goal scorer to this team. If teams still played 4-4-2, she would be and ideal strike partner. She still needs to improve her decision making a bit, but when playing instinctually she seems consistently dangerous.

Uchenna Kanu-5: I don't know how you describe her season as anything other than disappointing. She lost her confidence early and I don't think she ever got it back. My gut tells me that the jump in competition was too much for her. Maybe she can rebound, but I wouldn't base my roster planning on it.

Staff

Kim Björkegren-5: I don't think Coach Björkegren did a “bad” job, but I do think it was a below league-average coaching performance, hence the rating. Talking to him one-on-one, you can see how well her understands the game and individual players strengths and weaknesses, but somehow I just don't think the players responded to his coaching, especially in the latter half of the season. We haven't seen an announcement from the club yet, but I can imagine that they could easily decide to mutually part ways. His contract is up, so he really can't be “fired” but in essence not renewing it achieves the same end. In my opinion, the players stopped listening to him. That's a condition where assigning blame or fault is pointless. There have been plenty of great coaches who have lost their team's trust and attention. This best intangible measuring stick I come come up with is Was the team better than the sum of its parts? In Louisville's case, I believe that the answer to that question was pretty clearly “No”. That accountability falls on the coach whether it's fair or not. Regardless if Coach Björkegren somehow keeps his job or not next season this club has to make the playoffs or whoever the coach is will surely be looking for new work.

Bev Yanez-6: The players seem to like her. The practices are better (in my limited observations) when she is there. However, tell me who made a huge leap forward. You can argue that Howell, Milliet, and Davis were improved, but was it so much that you couldn't call it natural growth? I think we'll be able to judge her more accurately next season, thus the neutral rating.

Sergio Gonzalez-6: Louisville's corners and set pieces were more effective this year than any previous year. Katie Lund was the top keeper in the league, so it's hard to say anything overtly negative about the job he has done in Louisville. However, where are the back post runners? Either it isn't being coached (which I highly doubt) or it hasn't been implemented effectively, which is likely a communication issue. I think some of the tuning out of coaching instructions probably bled over to set piece instructions. That isn't necessarily his fault, but it is in his purview, thus the average rating.

Ryan Dell-7: He hasn't had a full season yet, so this offseason will be the first chance to see what he can do from a squad building perspective (Baggett, Pokorny and Aylmer aside). On the communication front, he has been excellent. He is approachable at pretty much any time, (I bumped into him on the street and had 30 second conversation with him out of the blue not long after he started). He seems genuinely interested in the fans’ opinion and has actively worked to make it easier for the club to get a combined City/Racing ticket option for next season. The players seems to like him and trust him as well. I've told him multiple times (he asked) that the team needs to make the playoffs next season to keep the fans involved. I expect that he will do everything in his power to make it happen.

San Diego 2 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

If you are reading this, you really are more of glutton for punishment that I am. I didn’t see much of the match live and now have no reason to watch the replay. I won’t be tweeting a link on Twitter (always Twitter, never “X”), so if you read this you are either Tom Benson, or …well I can’t really think of any other person who might stumble across this post.

Ultimately, maybe one could take comfort in the fact that ultimately Louisville’s performance didn’t matter as a win still wouldn’t have done anything other than worsen their draft position (but only from 6 to 7 and frankly there isn’t much difference between those two spots in recent history.) Pick 7 has more reliable minute contributors with 3 out of 6 logging more than 50% of the available minutes, and Diana Ordonez was taken at 6, but is the only notable 6 pick in the last six years.) Here are some quick hits before I go into complete off-season mode.

• Congratulations to the San Diego Wave for winning the shield which is THE accomplishment for the season in my opinion when the schedule is fully balanced (I don’t even watch the playoffs). They are doing things on the field the right way. They have an excellent coach (regardless of what you might think of her personality) are strong through the middle.

• Erceg stated that see thought the match was lost somewhat through a tactical insufficiency (lost the chess match in her words). Like I stated above, I didn’t watch enough of it to know if I share her opinion on this particular match, so I will just say that her comment doesn’t shock me.

• The “high press” was referenced as well as fitness concerns in the players’ post-match comments. I generally like the high press…when the Arsenal men do it. They also have an embarrassment of riches in young attacking talent. Even then, they rotate the tip of the spear when it comes to pressing with the 7,8,9,10, and 11 leading the press at different times in a match. Louisville hasn’t figured out how to press and leave gas in the tank for the last 20 minutes yet.

• The most telling comment and the one that surprised me the least was that Abby Erceg highlighted that the team was prone to try to win by themselves too much. This is something that requires some deeper analysis at some point but let me point to a number that might help tell the story. For the season, Louisville averaged 1.58 take-ons per match (a take-on is an attempt to take on a defender while dribbling). I classify a player who exceeds this average as a “dribbler”. When Louisville began to start Kgatlana regularly, she essentially took Wang’s spot in the lineup. Kgatlana averages about 2.5 times the number of take-ons/match compared to Wang. Louisville’s players that I would classify as “dribblers” are: Kgatlana, DeMelo, Nadim, Pokorny, Fischer and Kanu. This leaves Monaghan, Borges, Howell, Baggett and Davis as your “non-dribblers”. Wang is near the average, and I would consider her more balanced. After the World Cup, the number of “dribblers” on the team that were getting minutes might have gotten just a bit out of balance. Since the team wasn’t used to so many “dribblers” I think the tactical system became out of sorts. Additionally, when you play with a “dribbler”, you have to accordingly adjust your runs. Kgatlana and DeMelo are so high above the mean, that one might argue that they are “over-dribblers”. When you play with a teammate who dribbles the ball in attack, you have to learn that they aren’t going to see your runs unless you place yourself into their eyelines which are always going to be focused on the ball. Either you have to run into their eyeline (which seems nearly impossible in Kgatlana’s case), call for the ball very loudly, or place yourself where you know she likes to cross it. It seems like Davis figured out how to do this, but I am not sure if anybody else did. Conversely, if you are Kgatlana, you need to focus on pulling back your run earlier or being very clear with your teammates about where you expect them to be. The ultimate point is that as a player you have to make an effort to get on the same page as your teammates. You wouldn’t ask Kgatlana to limit one of her strengths, so as a teammate you need to learn how to work together with her. The insertion of Kgatlana late in the season meant that her teammates had to adjust to how to play with her, and that appeared to not go as well as one would have liked.

Analysis of the NWSL Draft’s First 14 Picks from 2018 to 2023

I almost always like to use evidence when backing up a claim, but there is a claim that I frequently make that I think requires a little deeper analysis. I am of the opinion that past the first few picks in the NWSL draft each year that the talent dips significantly. That isn’t a claim that you can’t find a hidden gem in a later round, but more of a statement about the value of a top pick over that of a later round pick. I decided to look at the top 14 picks (since there will be 14 first-round picks in the next NWSL draft) and try to determine where the drop in value usually occurs. My analysis led me to some interesting findings, but ultimately made me think that my instincts were right but with new perspective.

First let me start off with the measurement that I used and the methodology that I applied. I am sure there will be some disagreement about the singular measure that I used, and I frankly welcome further research to be done if anyone is interested in a more complicated analysis. However, since I had to construct the data set and parameters of the analysis, I decided to keep things simple as I am not looking to get this published in a scientific journal. I just simply wanted to see if my semi-informed opinion stood up to any numerical scrutiny. Therefore the measure I used was a calculation of % of available (league-only) minutes played by the player selected. For example, let’s take Andi Sullivan who was the first pick in the 2018 draft. Since she was drafted, she has played in 78% of the available minutes for her teams matches from 2018 to 2023. If you exclude Emily Madril (who currently sits at 100% but with only a single year of data), next on the list is Sam Staab, who has played in 97% of the available minutes for the Spirit during her tenure. Immediately you can see some of the limitations of this analysis in that defenders are likely going to skew high. Goalkeepers will too, if they are the first-choice keeper. Ultimately, since I wasn’t trying to discover anything about the difference at the highest levels, I decided that it didn’t matter that much if 90% was that different from 60%. The key data point I was in search of was the dividing line between a player who was at least a “solid” contributor and one who had “underperformed”.

N=84 (First 14 players selected each draft during the 6-year period)

I decided to see if the histogram told the story of where the cut-off point was. In a perfect analysis, if you moved from left to right you could label the bars accordingly:

• First Bar-Not NWSL caliber or decided to play in another league (Mia Fishel being an example in this bucket with 0% of available minutes played, but in her case it was her decision, not the team’s)

• Second Bar-Squad players (Kiki Pickett and Brianna Pinto are two high-draft pick examples from this bucket)

• Third Bar-Key Contributors (Paige Monaghan is probably the prime example of this)

• Fourth Bar-Consistent Starters (Savannah McCaskill finds herself here)

• Fifth Bar-Iron Women (the aforementioned Sam Staab)

However, I decided that the histogram was a little too strict and that there were plenty of consistent starters who were in the third bucket. The mean and the median of the data were around 40%, but that bar seemed too low. Finally, I checked the data to see if there were any players who hit close to 50%. Quinn has logged almost exactly 50% of their available minutes in their career, so I let them be the deciding factor. I would consider Quinn a valuable member of the Reign squad, so ultimately, I decided that 50% would be the dividing line between a “solid” draft pick and “underperforming” draft pick.

Before I go into the “fun” stuff, I want to include another detail about the data. I only counted minutes in seasons where a player was on the squad and used at least once. There isn’t a good example of a player excelling for a single season then bailing on the league, so this detail is more of a footnote vs. anything else.

Final Note: This analysis isn’t meant to compare a player’s performance to another player’s, but to try to determine which draft picks are most valuable and to determine their relative value to each other.

I will go through each draft, but before I do, I wanted to display a graph of all of the picks from 2018 to 2023.

The thing that stands out to me here is that the first two picks are pretty solidly guaranteed to be valuable with all 12 picks playing more than 50% of the available minutes. Oddly enough the 3rd pick has underperformed (3 picks) with the 4th pick being slightly better (4 picks). After that it is pretty predictable that the “solid” picks alternate between 1 and 2 at each spot with the exceptions being the picks at 7, 12, and 13. I wouldn’t necessarily read anything into that especially at the 7th pick as there isn’t an eye-popping name in that group, but the 12th pick in 2021 yielded Sam Coffey and the 13th pick in 2019 yielded CeCe Kizer. For me the takeaway would be this: I think you can assign a monetary value to each pick based on the probability of getting a good solid contributor. Here is how I would assign value:

• Picks 1 and 2 would be valued at some indeterminate figure X

• Picks 3 and 4 would be valued at .75 X

• Picks 5 through 12 would be valued at .4 X

• Anything after that I personally don’t think is worth the paper it is submitted on, but let’s go with .05 X just to give it a value.

In essence, I just set the high value at X and found that picks 3 and 4 play 75% of the minutes that picks 1 and 2 have historically and that picks 5-12 play 40% of the minutes that picks 1 and 2 have.

2018 Draft

The six “solid” picks in this draft are Andi Sullivan (1), Savannah McCaskill (2), Quinn (3), Imani Dorsey (5), Haley (Hanson) McCutcheon (7), and Casey Murphy (13). That is decent rate, but the highs are highs, and the lows are low. The 12th pick was Kimberly Keever who started 9 matches but was out of the league by the start of the next season.

2019 Draft

Eight of the twelve players selected in 2019 turned out to be very good picks. Tierna Davidson (1), Hallie Mace (2), Sam Staab (4), Dorian Bailey (8), Paige Monaghan (10), Ally Prisock (12), CeCe Kizer (13), and Lauren Milliet (14). That is very deep top 14. Jordan (DiBiasi) Baggett (3) is useful when healthy, but that hasn’t happened enough in Washington or Louisville.

2020 Draft

This draft might be the most interesting one. There are plenty of players that are “solid”, but the “underperforming” category includes Ally Watt (6), Tziarra King (8), Natalie Jacobs (13) and Phoebe McClernon (14) who’s percentages range between 23% and 43%. The talent is apparent in these players, they just haven’t been on the pitch enough to warrant a top 14 pick in my opinion. This draft also points out the limitations of my analysis with Sophia Smith (1) logging 67% or her available minutes and in my opinion, she is currently the most valuable player in the league by far. Like I stated earlier, this analysis isn’t meant to compare a player’s performance to another’s, but to try to determine which draft picks are most valuable. The rest of the “solid” picks are Morgan Weaver (2), Taylor Kornieck (3), Ashley Sanchez (4), Courtney Petersen (7), Kaliegh Riehl (11) and Kate Del Fava (12).

2021 Draft

This draft ends the run of 3 in a row that I would consider “above average” return for value. It is highlighted by 3 stars: Emily Fox (1), Trinity Rodman (2), and Sam Coffey (12) but 4 solid contributors round out the successes with Tara McKeown (8), Viviana Villacorta (9), Kirsten Davis (13) and Mikayla Colohan (14). Victoria Pickett is an interesting player at the 15th spot. She would qualify as “solid” based on this criterion but has seen her playing time drop in 2023.

2022 Draft

It might be still too early to fully rate this draft, but Naomi Girma (1), Jaelin Howell (2), Savannah DeMelo (4) and Diana Ordonez (6) are no-doubt solid picks. Elyse Bennett (7) and Julie Doyle (11) could see their minutes increase in the next couple of years.

2023 Draft

The jury could still be out on some of the players in the 20% to 40% range, but this draft already has 5 “solids” in Alyssa Thompson (1), Michelle Cooper (2), Emily Madril (3), Jenna Nighswonger (4) and Penelope Hocking (7). It is encouraging that each of the top four picks have proven themselves to be solid from the start.

On Louisville’s Draft Position

I thought it would be better to post this prior to knowing what Louisville’s draft position will be because I wanted to see if there was any value at 5 or 6 compared to 7 or 8. I think I would say that the probability of getting a “solid” player drops significantly after the fourth pick, but that there really isn’t much difference between 5 and 14. It is possible but unlikely that Louisville will finish with the 4th pick now, so I think I can say pretty firmly that their 2024 first-round pick will be left to chance when it comes to how much of a contributor the player will be. Additionally, I wouldn’t necessarily move up in the draft to take a player unless that player is in the top 4.

San Diego v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

One of the blessings/curses of writing a “Pre Match” piece is that I choose to go through the images from the previous year’s fixture. As you can see above, I chose the key image from a 0-0 draw where Jaelin Howell had a goal ruled out due to interfering with the Wave keeper. I seem to recall several calls for VAR at the time (memory is an unreliable witness however) and sometimes you get buyer’s remorse once you see the effects of what you once desired. We’ve had just about a year’s worth of VAR and I would personally give it a rating of “Needs Improvement”. This is especially the case when VAR overturns a call on the field where there isn’t enough evidence to overturn a call after a 30 second review. I warned about the lack of cameras and here we sit at the end of the first season. Here’s hoping that VAR isn’t involved in any match on Sunday and that everyone feels like they got a fair shake after the matches end. This being the NWSL, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

There are all kinds of graphics and commentary about what must happen for Louisville to make the playoffs, but I would rather focus on what Louisville must do, and that is win. I still maintain that a 7th or 8th place finish is bad for the long-term future of the club, but I wouldn’t want the team to not try for a playoff spot. Recency bias will always make you focus on the near-term past and the decisions that went against them, but this team has dropped plenty of points this season from winning positions. Then again, I think that I saw that they have won more points from losing positions that any other team in the league this, so it would be hard to argue that any place that they finish wouldn’t be “fair”.

I haven’t seen any availability news yet, but Wang Shuang is back, and hopefully Ary Borges is fit. Jae Howell could have the questionable tag removed from her, but I personally think that her injury is best served by a few full months of rest (but as always, I don’t have any real insight into the specifics of it). The most observant watchers will notice that Howell’s injury has been listed as both “Hip” and “Ankle” so I think we can safely assume that she has been dealing with multiple issues. Jae looked like she was nearly ready to enter the match against the Pride, but she never got to the point of taking out her earrings (the NWSL won’t let you play in jewelry), and my wife swears that she knew that she wasn’t going to play because she wore them on the bench. I think starting both Borges and Howell coming off of injury is a bit risky, and I have the feeling that we may see Borges before Howell.

Every team except Chicago (who is my opinion is highly incented to lose and secure the number 3 pick) has something to play for. Louisville has shown up well against San Diego in their brief histories. I felt like despite going down 2 goals at home against the Pride, that Louisville never stopping trying to equalize and then ultimately win. I think this team plays best when it doesn’t try to overthink things. I think that Louisville will try to set up for quick counters and maybe have a new set piece in their locker (there was no media availability at any practice this week, so I don’t have any insider info related to the set piece comment). I think game theory goes out the window once the match starts, so I don’t believe any team will be scoreboard watching and even if there is word that the Thorns are winning comfortably, I don’t expect San Diego to do anything other than press hard for a win. The NWSL Shield would be a huge achievement for a club in its second year. In my opinion, it is still trophy #1 regardless of what anybody else says or believes (any league with a balanced schedule only does playoffs as a money grab…and no value judgement on money grabs, but the table is definitive proof of the best team for a season).

Louisville 3 Orlando 2 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy David Mucker

It still might be too little, too late but Louisville has given themselves a fighting chance to make the playoffs for the first time, if things break their way next Sunday. The overall performance was marginally better than the previous few, but the spirit of the team was noticeably improved from the last few matches.

• Let’s get the officials out of the way first. As previously mentioned, I believe that most officials employed by this league are cowardly by nature and avoid making tough and unpopular calls when they can avoid it. Here is where I believe that VAR actually helps. The penalty awarded to Orlando was 100% a foul in the box (just like last week's VAR overturn was on DeMelo). Since it was a challenge by Aylmer on Marta with the Orlando player moving away from the goal and with her back to it, it almost went unnoticed. Either the on-field official didn’t see it (shame on him) or he did and was too cowardly to blow his whistle (double-shame on him). VAR got it right and Louisville went down 0-1. After the stoppage in play when Madril was down and with Louisville already trailing 0-2, Louisville’s captain (Erceg) gave the linesman an earful in full view of the crowd and at a volume loud enough that several sections of the stadium had to hear it. I thought to myself, “well, that’s a yellow card” but nothing came of it other than a few calls started to go Louisville’s way afterwards. This league needs more competent officials and officials that can manage a match effectively. The officiating has been a “side-show” in the last few matches when the goal should be to be invisible.

• On to the main show…on the whole, it was a match dictated by mistakes with Orlando making one more gross error than Louisville. The penalties ended up cancelling each other out, and both teams had singular moments of brilliance. Abello’s goal for Orlando was terrific, but maybe Lester and Lund both could have done a little better. That might be a little unfair to Kaite based on the ferocity of the shot, but she did seem to react to it late. Conversely, Louisville finally got a decent team goal from open play. Pickett started the move with a beautiful pass into Kgatlana who in turn relayed another good ball into Davis for the goal. The key in transition is to be accurate and quick, and it paid off here. Kgatlana’s final balls into her teammates hadn’t been great up to this point in the match, but she got this one 100% right. Davis still had to more to do on the finish, and the slide likely helped her keep the ball down and on target. My favorite part of the goal was that none of the passes were over-thought, but incredibly precise. Finally, Orlando’s keeper Moorhouse, let in a howler and further embarrassed herself by complaining to the officials. VAR took a brief look and very quickly deemed Moorhouse to be a cry-baby. Aylmer was closest to her but did absolutely nothing to interfere with the keeper who frankly initiated the contact on Aylmer. It was a poor look and outcome for Orlando’s keeper, but she has nobody to blame but herself.

• Now, I am sure you recall that Louisville won its last two matches last season and all that did was prevent them from taking Emily Madril in the draft. There is an unnecessary stigma to finishing in last place (when there is no relegation). Louisville has probably secured not finishing in last place. After the rest of the weekend’s matches, we will have a better picture of what Louisville has to do to either make the playoffs or get a decent draft pick. A win is necessary to make the playoffs, and Louisville has tended to play well against San Diego. They have faced San Diego 3 times, and the Wave has never scored against Louisville (with Louisville only scoring a single goal). The Wave could have several things to play for, so the match will likely be a good one with both teams looking to get on the front foot early.

Louisville 3 Orlando 2 Player Ratings

For the first time in their history, Louisville overcame a 2 goal deficit to take all 3 points. Things will have to break their way for it to ultimately matter, but on the night you take the result.

Lund-6: Not her best night but it won't matter to her.

Pickett-6: Still not up to her excellent standards, but grew into the game.

Erceg-8: Bonus point for deservedly giving the refs hell.

Lester-6: Probably a bit at fault for the second Orlando goal.

Milliet-6: Got beaten a few times, but was decent in attack.

Aylmer-5: Gave up a needless penalty.

Pikkujämsä-7: Deputized well for Borges.

DeMelo-7: Won the penalty for Nadim's goal, but still is not quite up to her pre-World Cup form.

Kgatlana-8: Excellent. Showed her real quality tonight.

Nadim-7: Calmly converted her penalty.

Monaghan-6: Not involved much and subbed off early.

Louisville v Orlando Pre Match Thoughts

I am somewhat of two minds going into Friday's last match at home versus Orlando. I remain convinced that in the long run, the club would be better off with the 3rd or 4th draft pick in next year's draft versus finishing 7th or 8th place, but I am never going to actively root for this team to lose. Knowing that my cheering them on has virtually no effect on the outcome of a match means that I can do as a normally do and also expect what we as a fanbase have typically gotten recently.

To me (and as always possibly only me) the players have played their most recent matches like they are each carrying a 10-pound weight around their necks. It is always a fine line between playing with a fire in your belly versus a weight around your neck. The lack of goals recently has to be weighing on the players and I personally think it shows in their shot selection. In his media availability today, Coach Björkegren lamented the squandered opportunities and stated that he felt that all of the breaks seemed to be going against Louisville recently. That's difficult to argue. However, it can also be argued that Louisville simply hasn't created enough good chances to score, especially in the box. You can argue a crossbar here and a post there, but the fact remains that this team has been creatively stagnant for a while now, with no signs of improvement.

The good news is that creativity isn't the only way to score goals and I would say that Louisville desperately needs to see one go in regardless of its nature… if I thought it mattered. The bigger issues with this team will take an offseason to try to fix, so for now any kind of result would be good for morale (if not for their draft position), but morale will probably be fine anyway when they start the season fresh next year. I think a 2-2 draw would do wonders for this team’s confidence, but then it would likely be another 5 months before they played another meaningful match, so frankly it doesn't really matter other than some sort of temporary relief. Like I said, I am of two minds.

This team desperately needs a consistent goal scorer AND/OR to be able to slice through teams with ball movement. A good draft pick could facilitate the former, but the latter will likely require a coaching shake-up. I think you are kidding yourself if you think we are getting the same set up next year as we have seen this season.

I don't have much to say about Orlando other than to wonder how Messiah Bright was available at 21 for them to select this year. Louisville wishes they had Orlando's draft from last year, which once again makes my point about winning meaningless games. Louisville's games are not technically meaningless yet, but they haven't looked like a playoff team recently, so any last second change in form would be completely against the trend.

Chicago 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

I figure that any person that comes to this space to read my ramblings appreciates my honest opinion on the performance of this team. This post, while still my opinion, I will file under the “hard truths” category. They may not be your truths, but it is only the sum of what I am seeing and how I think this team should move forward.

• This group of players gives the impression that they no longer want to listen to the coaching staff as currently comprised. Nothing on Saturday night looked cohesive. The players were individually trying to win the match, but if there was a plan to do it together, it didn't translate to my screen. It reminded me of year one of this club. I was 100% not surprised by this performance either. There are too many players on this team that give the impression that they can't wait for this season to be over.

• I don't believe the playoffs are in the cards, and I don't think the team will make a coaching change until the end of the season. The current setup gives them a realistic shot at the bottom of the table and the number 3 overall pick in next year's draft. That may seem harsh, but at this point there is way more value to the club in getting a better draft pick than trying to achieve some imaginary achievement like “not as bad as last year” or “in the playoff hunt”. The psyche of a professional athlete is surely strong enough to overcome the temporary negative effects of finishing 11th or 12th when weighed against the value of the 3rd or 4th pick vs. the 7th or 8th pick you get for finishing 7th or 8th. I don’t know what the club leadership will do, I only know what I would do: politely roll out a respectable team for these last two matches, thank the coach at the end of the season, not renew his contract (and maybe not just his), and quietly expect that the status quo will generate the expected results and if things go the right/wrong way (depending on your perspective) get a decent pick in next year’s first round (anything after the first 5 or 6 picks is just as likely to be bust vs. boom). I suspect there is a portion of the fanbase that will take the apologetic view that a playoff push is “not impossible”, but I will always take the more evidence-based approach to say that this season is effectively over.

• I am a huge fan of getting the calls on the pitch right, but the day I feared when VAR arrived in the NWSL arrived last night. Subtract the intervention of the VAR officials in last night’s match, and I think it was a decently officiated match. All three VAR reviews were called correctly on the field in my opinion and if VAR had not been in play there would have been few complaints. All VAR did in this case was look at the wrong footage, overturn a correct on the field call and waste four minutes at the end of the match when it was effectively over. On the first instance, the broadcast and I have to assume the VAR itself was showing a completely irrelevant offside decision to the on-field official. Who knows if it was a technical glitch or incompetence, but neither is a good look and both could be true. The second was a VAR nightmare. The correct call was made on the field in real time. There is this fallacious belief that a zoomed-in frame-by-frame examination is a closer reflection of the truth, when actually the real-time occurrence is more accurate. I maintain that it is irrelevant to some degree whether or not the defender got the first touch. Anywhere else on the pitch, it is a foul and you move on. The defender made illegal contact on DeMelo, and that should have been the end of the story. On the last review, once again I think the non-call on the field was correct. In this case I think the relevant rules are “serious foul play” or “violent conduct”. In practice, this sometimes gets translated to “dangerous play”. In my book, this one is fairly simple when held up to this standard of officiating: who initiated the dangerous play. In the case of last night, it was clearly the player attempting to head the ball off of a high boot that initiated the situation moving into dangerous play. A high boot in and of itself is not illegal and Kanu has no clear view of the defender when she raised her boot. The non-call was the correct one.

• VAR aside, Louisville’s performance was typical of the last few matches and therefore not good enough for 1 point, let alone 3. It is true that 2 shots hit the crossbar, but I see that more as a sign of a desperate offensive mindset versus evidence of “bad luck”. Both of those goals would have been truly great, and neither of them would have made me feel any better about the team’s offensive cohesion. Only individual brilliance was going to achieve anything last night, and they were close to achieving that brilliance but not close enough. Defensively, they lacked a bit of organization, and a better team would have made them pay even more dearly.

• This is also the point of the season where I have to decide whether or not to be mentally invested in these last two matches. I think the answer for me right now is that I will once again “run out the string” and post my normal items, but don’t expect anything super inciteful from me until the offseason.

Chicago 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings

Louisville may not be technically eliminated, but I have written them off. Changes need to be made.

Lund-6: Maybe should have done better on the goal.

Pickett-5: Distribution from the back was off, but has to be furious that no one was on the back post for her fantastic corner.

Erceg-5: Maybe unfair but gets the captain's downgrade for a poor team performance.

Lester-5: Not terrible, but hard to say anything more positive.

Milliet-5: Not her best match defensively as she got beaten for pace a few times.

Pikkujämsä-5: Hit the post, but Yuki made her look foolish more than once.

Fischer-6: Hit the post as well. Disappointing to see her subbed off.

DeMelo-5: Not the same player since the World Cup.

Monaghan-5: Not very memorable.

Nadim-6: Only individual brilliance was going to do anything tonight, and at least she tried.

Davis-5: Don’t like her on the right.

Chicago v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts

It’s Louisville versus Chicago for the fourth time this season and the visiting team will be looking to make it 4 wins in a season against their hosts. Only 3 points will matter for either team, so hopefully we see an open and entertaining match.

Louisville was probably extra thankful for the international break, but neither Baggett nor Howell will be fit enough to make the match day squad. Pickett considers herself fully healthy, so that is welcome news. A few international players might be last minute calls to make the match day 18.

Everyone around the team is fully aware that it is 3 points or bust time. I don't get the sense that anyone is carrying any extra nervousness, but one would hope that they are carrying that extra little bit of intensity. A win in Chicago could really set off a late playoff push. Louisville has a history of playing well late in the season, but the playoffs haven't been in reach in the previous two campaigns. I will say that I am hopeful for a late push, but my observations to date don’t make me optimistic about getting 9 points from 3 matches.

In more positive news, the Lou City and Racing Foundation raised over $300,000 as a result of the Soccer Ball on Wednesday. It's always fun to see the players and coaches outside of the normal confines of the training ground and the stadium. I got to chat with Howell for a few minutes and tried to give her my jacket to wear for an upcoming player entrance. She politely declined and shared her plans to celebrate one of her favorite footballers at the upcoming home finale. Also, a player that will remain nameless was seen carrying out an unopened bottle of wine from the event. (Each table was provided a bottle of white and red, so plenty of wine was consumed and also left unconsuned.) Overall it was a fun night for a good cause.

Louisville 0 Houston 1 Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy David Mucker

Louisville is starting to look like a team that has simply run of out steam and ideas. The team has made strides this season, but it looks like they will ultimately come up short of their playoff dream.

• There were some frankly candid quotes from Erceg last night. I think it would be tough not to agree with her assessment of the situation. The injuries at this point in the season start to pile up and if you don't have a full squad that is ready to go it can make life very difficult. We know that Coach Björkegren will always play a player he trusts out of position over a like-for-like player that he doesn't. I agree with Erceg's assessment that Pokorny is “not a defensive player” but also that she is “stepping in to do a job that's not hers.” The truth is that the roster isn't balanced with enough defensive depth. Louisville simply carries too many players that don't consistently tribute much to the team. There are a plethora of reasons, but those reasons aren't of much solace right now.

• It's probably time to start asking the question if Coach Björkegren has done enough winning to secure a third season. I think the evidence likely points to “no”, and I think we have started to see signs of regression since the return of the World Cup players. This team might need a bigger personality to lead the squad next year because unless something drastic happens, I think you can firmly label it “veteran squad”. This team is a piece or two away from challenging next year, but needs to get more from some players that Björkegren simply hasn't gotten. I won't write his obituary yet, but I think it's coming.

• I think Erceg's most telling quote from last night was “we stopped playing as a team.” The current starting XI are a disjointed group of players that don't seem to have any real connection with each other on the pitch. While they have been scoring some goals, there hasn't been much creativity recently. The win over Portland patched over that weakness to some degree as that goals in that match were more of a “scrappy” nature. Louisville has seemed to lose its ability to cut through a defense. Maybe they weren't ever good at it. They need to find a way to attempt to score a team goal because the individual efforts have dried up.

Louisville 0 Houston 1 Player Ratings

Louisville seemed to run out of attacking ideas and were a little too undisciplined on defense and ultimately it cost them all three points. The results at the end of the weekend will determine how much hope this team still has of making the playoffs.

Lund-6: Pretty standard performance from her.

Milliet-6: Tried to get some attacking going but couldn't find anyone to finish a pass.

Erceg-7: Solid and found Pickett on one of Louisville's best chances.

Lester-6: Didn't close the wing down quick enough on the goal.

Pokorny-6: Good in attack, but probably not disciplined enough to play outer back.

Pikkujämsä-6: Had to cover at the back more than she would have wanted.

Borges-6: Better than her most recent performances and had a headed opportunity saved.

DeMelo-7: Tried to drag the team back, but lacked that final bit of quality.

Davis-6: Had a golden opportunity on the breakaway but couldn't finish it.

Nadim-6: Lashed a good shot on target towards Campbell that produced a fine save.

Kgatlana-6: Was all over the place in the first half, but kind of disappeared in the second half.

Louisville v Houston Pre Match Thoughts

Courtesy Madeline Mullenbach

It's Louisville vs. Houston for the 4th time this season, and both teams will be looking to get all 3 points. I personally think that while they would never admit it Houston has pulled the plug on this season and would see any last ditch playoff push as a bonus to their season. Louisville has great incentive to come out early and try to put Houston away before they get any momentum.

• Fatigue seemed to be the word of the day during Wednesday's media availability. I would agree that fatigue played a large part in Louisville's performance on Saturday but they will have to shake that off against Houston. As for the “new manager bump”, that is really explained by what happens right before the sacking of the previous manager which is usually a below average run of form. Naturally the form with the new manager will return to the mean, but the best study I have seen shows that new managers get about 1.3 points per match compared to average of 1.0 points per match prior to their hiring. It's not nothing, but it isn't definitive either. In the NWSL specifically, the margins are so fine that almost any result can be seen a “noise” in the context of the season. Louisville hasn't been great at creating goals through incisive ball movement recently (their 3 September goals coming from corners and the mistake made by the Reign), so they definitely want to get going from that perspective if they are to make a playoff push.

• I am a little caught between two minds when I think about how the NWSL should have handled the scheduling once they knew the four Challenge Cup semifinalists. Part of me wishes that they would have pushed back the Louisville/Houston match to Saturday or Sunday once they new that Louisville could potentially be playing on super short rest on Saturday against the Courage. On the other hand, nobody likes a last minute change in the schedule that could effect the fans’ availability to attend a match. Therefore, we will just have to live with a Friday evening kickoff even though Louisville would probably have appreciated an extra day or two of rest.

• There was a small tidbit that I forgot to include from my Post Match Thoughts piece on the Challenge Cup Final. I got the chance to meet Arsenal legend and quadruple winner Leanne Sanderson at the match. We chatted briefly as I kept her up to date on Arsenal's Champions League qualifier which they ultimately lost on penalties to both of our chagrin. Anyway, she made it a point to say goodbye to me before we left the stadium. She is an absolute treasure and I will have very strong words for anyone who has anything other that glowing things to say about her.

• Louisville will be in a position for the next three league rounds to play either the first or second match of the weekend. It will give Louisville the chance to put up points early in the weekend. Hopefully they take advantage of this and post 3 points every match until the final one in San Diego where there will be (thankfully) simultaneous kickoffs to end the league season. Just like the conventional wisdom on penalty shootouts, you like to “go first” to out pressure on your opponents, but run the risk of having the tables turned on you if you don't take advantage.

Challenge Cup Final Post Match Thoughts

Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw

I will forgo my traditional format to some degree and touch a little more on the big picture in this post. Let's get the painful stuff out of the way first.

• The Courage were the better team on the day once again. You can't really say anything other than Kerolin's goal was a fine finish from a tough angle and that Manaka Matsukubo's goal was an absolute stunner. Those things happen in soccer and you just have to accept it and congratulate you opponent.

• Louisville didn't play poorly on the day, especially given the circumstances. I entered this week of the opinion that I was sad to see the Challenge Cup go and now I have done a complete 180 to say that I am glad to see the back of it and “good riddance.” I still like the idea of a cup competition, but it has to be better and the NWSL has to find the right partner to televise it. The TV partnership with CBS/Paramount has outlived its usefulness and the league needs to move on. It was extremely detrimental to Louisville to have a 12:30 PM kickoff locked in after the travel day they had on Thursday. The lack of flexibility in the CBS schedule especially on the weekends in the fall meant that there were limited time spots. Ironically, it didn't even matter because CBS didn't show most of the match due to the weather delay. Broadcast television can die if we collectively have to will to euthanize it. It is no longer needed and if we can get over the misguided idea of having to have big events aired on “Big CBS” or “Big NBC”, etc. we can move to a better system.

• The coaches and players won't make excuses and the Courage have no need to apologize for winning, but I cannot think of another competition where you don't know where you will be playing on such short notice. The idea of playing a semifinal on Wednesday and a final on Saturday is laughable and the NWSL has proven itself unserious once again for backing itself into a corner. Fortunately, Louisville will get a couple of days off to recover before preparing for Houston and trying to make a playoff push.

• As tough as it is to lose a cup final as a fan it pales in comparison to losing one as a player. Both Milliet and Lund looked absolutely miserable when I talked to them after the match. Coach Björkegren was a little less sad, but it's definitely a feeling you don't want to repeat.

• If it cheers you up at all, I can tell you that I was less than impressed with WakeMed Park. To call it a “dump” would be an insult to dumps. The field was fine and there seemed to be a great sense of pride in how quickly it drained. On the other hand it is an anonymous stadium in an anonymous part of an anonymous “city”. I estimate that only 10-15% of the seats have chair backs. There was absolutely no character to the park. It's like if Mitt Romney was a soccer stadium. Appreciate Lynn Family Stadium because it really is quite a gem in this league.

• I will briefly pause my embargo on the word “deserve” to say that the North Carolina players deserve a better place to play and I will say that 95% of the fans do as well. The other 5%, who yelled at an injured DeMelo that she “hurt herself” and was “wasting time” deserve WakeMed Park and its complete pathological lack of charm.

• The small crowd that remained after the rain delay was pretty good. This is the second stadium I have visited where the fans got involved in a simple chant. This time it was a simple alternating “NC” on one side of the field and “Courage” on the opposite site. It was signaled and led by the waving of a giant flags. It was effective and makes me wonder why we can't get something simple like this figured out at Lynn.

• At some point hopefully (maybe when the prize money gets deposited in their accounts) the players will look back fondly on the run that they made in this competition. They represented the city well and exceeded expectations. I just hope it hasn't drained the energy from them so that they can make a real playoff push. I think the big takeaway from this competition and the season so far is that Louisville's 1 through 11 are as good as any in the league but that the back end of the roster still needs some development. They need out least one more reliable outside back and a little more midfield depth. The quantity of injuries and absences caught up to them in this match.