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Wave v Racing Preview
Racing has a 10PM EDT kickoff in San Diego on Friday against the Wave. The Wave will be missing their national team players which include Naomi Girma, Sofia Jakobsson, Taylor Kornieck, Alex Morgan, and Kailen Sheridan, which means that they are slightly more impacted by absentees than Racing. After this weekend’s matches, the NWSL will take a week off and return to action on July 29th. By that time, it is likely that all international players other than those whose teams make the semis of the Euros will be back. For Racing, that means that they should be at full strength unless Denmark makes a deep run which would have to start with a win vs. Spain on Saturday.
In a way too early look at 2023, I have started to wonder what the NWSL season is going to look like from a scheduling perspective with the World Cup next year. One option that likely will not be as readily available next year is the ability for teams to sign national team replacement players. The USL Super League will be gearing up to start its season in August next year and while it might not overlap with the July 20 to August 20 schedule for the World Cup, I would have to believe that the USL Super League teams will be running training camps in the June/July period. That means that there will be around 250-300 more women who will be playing professional soccer. I think this pool is likely to include several of the players that served as national team replacement players this year. Yesterday the NWSL had a press release that mentioned broadcast improvements coming soon (yay!), expansion in 2024 (cool), VAR in 2023 (we’ll see), but no mention of the schedule for next year. I am throwing it out there: I think the league has to split the season in half and take off 4 or 5 weeks for the World Cup. If that means pausing the Challege Cup for a year or revamping it to be played in either a season-long format or during the World Cup with diminished squads, I am fine with that. It may be too early for the fans to be worrying about this, but I would like to have some indication that the league is planning for it. What I definitely don’t want is Racing Louisville matches in January or February.
Back in the present, Racing is in dire need of a result to match their recent performances, and I believe they can get a good one if they can just cut down on their mistakes. For all its intricacies, soccer is really a game of capitalizing on your opponent’s mistakes. In its history, Racing has scored 48 goals. Exactly half have come directly from an opponent’s mistake (off the press, in transition, from a free kick, corner, or penalty or from an own goal). It can be argued that another 9 were started in transition from a mistake. Only 15 have been with any kind of interconnected play (13 with sustained possession and 2 long passing moves started with the keeper).
I kind of wished I had been tracking how Racing conceded goals but going back and collecting that data seems like a depressingly daunting task that should be reserved for a dark and dreary winter night. Therefore, based on memory alone, I think that Racing’s conceded goal chart would look very similar. As a small sample size, if you look at the last match vs. Gotham, you will clearly see that all 3 goals started with at least one clear mistake. Fans could talk ad nauseum about formations and player selection but cutting down on mistakes is the key. Players should always be encouraged to show their skills and take chances, but the defensive third is not the place to play a low percentage pass and taking a risky touch should never been done with 8 or 9 teammates on the wrong side of the ball. It really is like the Hippocratic Oath: Primum non nocere.
Racing has a chance to get back in the playoff hunt, but they really are reaching the point of no return if they don’t get 3 points in this match. Even though San Diego leads the league, it is a team missing fire power and defensive steel. The next few matches, even though Racing are at home, would be decent draws if Racing weren’t in such dire need of points. I think 7 points from the next 12 available going into the August 12th match at Houston is likely necessary to keep any realistic playoff hopes alive. It’ s a tall order. I think 3 points in San Diego is vital in that it would give the team a little hope and momentum heading into the off week.
I also think there is little point in playing for draws at this point, at least until Racing gets within striking distance of the playoffs. I don’t think this actually would be a noticeable change anyway, as the team’s current style is to go forward when the match is tied.
Racing 1 - Gotham 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I don’t feel like there are many new insights to glean from last night's performance, so I will be brief. It was once again a case of committing unforced errors. We could debate continually about why the team isn't preforming well enough to win, but the simple explanation is that this team concedes too many goals. I don't think in Racing’s brief history that they have ever rolled out a back line that made me feel like they were difficult to score on. In my experience, the best pressing teams in the world (which heavily overlaps with the best teams in the world period) succeed by keeping the ball as far away from their defenders as humanly possible, but when their back lines are called upon, they are ready to step up. Racing’s team defending has let them down enough not to blame all off Racing’s recent issues on the back line, but tonight the nominal defenders were guilty on both goals. I said earlier this week and stand by my assertion, that there simply isn’t enough defensive talent on this team and that it will likely take on offseason to address. Players and coaches and employees of the club aren't allowed to give up on a season this early, but I would suggest that fans manage their expectations. Without a significant change in either talent or tactics, I see no clear way to the top of half of the table. That really is a shame based on the attacking talent that will be available once Nadim returns and Kgatlana joins, but I am afraid the hole the team is currently digging may be too large to climb out of.
Racing 1 - Gotham 2 Player Ratings
Courtesy USA Sports Images
It was the story of 3 transition goals from defensive mistakes tonight at Lynn Family Stadium with Racing making two of them. Again, Racing dominated for a section of the match but couldn't get the opening goal.
Lund-6: Wasn't put in a very good position to stop either of the goals.
Milliet-6: Filled in admirably at left back, but this team will miss Fox until she returns.
Bonner-5: Gave the ball straight to Gotham on the second goal under no pressure. Had a good strike from distance late, but it was right at Harris.
Lester-5: Gave away the ball in a very dangerous spot that led to Gotham’s opener.
Wyne-6: Pretty steady in her debut. Could continue to see minutes if she plays as well as she did tonight.
Howell-7: Had 4 shots and 2 on target.
DeMelo-8: Made Gotham pay dearly for their turnover. Had an 88% passing accuracy. Is carrying the team's slim playoff hopes on her back at the moment.
Chidiac-7: Had a pretty good penalty shout in the second half. It was a jersey pull that is given 99 times out of 100 in midfield and about 25 out of 100 in the box. That drives me absolutely insane.
McDonald-6: Had a relatively quiet night out wide.
Ekic-7: Produced a fantastic save from Harris on a set piece
Davis-7: Like Ekic was close to a goal but Harris was on the spot again.
Racing Gotham Preview/Thembi Kgatlana Signing
Unofficial Racing Mascots, but officially cute doggos Louie and Sparky after practice on Wednesday
Racing announced the signing of Thembi Kgatlana from Athletico Madrid on a two-year deal. The South African winger fills a specific need in attack as a outside player deployed in her preferred postition, as opposed to the converted wingers Racing had been using like Ekic and Salmon. It will likely be the end of July before she is available to make her Racing debut. She will be expected to move right into Racing's Starting XI. Coach Björkegren was non-committal on whether to expect any more business in this transfer window, but I have a feeling that only a game-changing addition would be considered at this point.
Racing will be playing at Lynn Family Stadium for the first time since June 11th. Their last two matches, have been played on frankly embarrassing pitches. Segra Field is a terrible turf pitch which is built for everyday use. My own personal experience on turf is that its integrity decreases pretty significantly after the first dozen of so uses unless it is properly maintained. I'm pretty sure the players hate it. The pitch at Daytona held up from a structural standpoint, but wasn't ideal for many reasons. I think it's fair to say that Toni Pressley had been struggling for Orlando, but a shorter and narrower pitch allowed her to have her best player rating since May according to Fotmob. Racing likes a big pitch and a narrower and shorter one that was also “squishy” wasn’t ideal for them. It probably didn't impact the result, but it impacted the players’ experience. Aren't there enough football and soccer stadiums in America now that we can find a way to not spend $1,000,000 on a temporary pitch.? I hated this idea from the start and hope that the lack of overwhelming ticket sales will mean that we don't see it again. If there is a next time, expect Racing to suggest that Orlando find another opponent. Long story short: play soccer in soccer specific stadiums if at all possible.
As for the match on Friday, Gotham come into town riding a 3 match losing streak where they haven't scored. It's the classic resistible force vs. movable object match up. I predict goals galore, but that's typically means you can bet the house on a 0-0 draw. Gotham might feel like the woodwork owes them from the last match against Racing, so expect them to try their luck from distance again in hopes that the ball breaks their way this time. I expect no changes from the last match in Racing’s starting lineup.
Pride 2 Racing 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Sports Images
I am a big fan of Occam’s Razor when it comes to explaining why things are the way they are. For the uninitiated, Occam’s Razor is a mental model (how we understand the world). It has a really technical definition that I won’t get into here, but feel free to explore if you like. In its most basic terms, it translates to “among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.” In even more basic terms: the simplest explanation is preferable to the one that is more complex. In a world filled with needless conspiracy theories, it is how I keep my sanity. If you have even heard young physicians being taught “if it looks like a horse and sounds like a horse, it’s probably a horse, not a zebra” when diagnosing patients then you are familiar with the principle. Applying it to a Racing example, my answer to “Why was Ebony Salmon traded” is “she wasn’t getting any minutes on the pitch.” One could make all kinds of other hypotheses, but that one is the one we know to be true and doesn’t assume anything else. Again, that isn’t to say you couldn’t come up with another hypothesis, but you would be hard pressed to prove it. I like proof.
Bringing this into more focus on this match and where Racing stands at this point in the season, the burning question to me is “Why can’t Racing hold a lead?”
Racing has been so uniquely poor when scoring first that I had to change the bottom end of the scale on this graph. Here are a few of facts:
Racing is averaging approximately .75 fewer points than the league average when scoring first.
Racing is also the worst team in the league when you factor in how many points they have won with a two goal lead after scoring first (1.33). Seven teams have perfect records when leading by at least two goals and only Racing and Washington are below 2.
Racing is the only team to not always get at least a point when having a 2 goal lead.
I have a couple of hypothesis as to why Racing can’t protect a lead.
Hypothesis #1: The NWSL is too chaotic and no lead is safe.
That is the branding that the NWSL seems to embrace most of the time. In fact, while the matches do seem to go back and forth, the overwhelming majority of matches are won by the team scoring first and 78% of two goal leads are converted into 3 points by the team that scores first. This hypothesis can be easily rejected.
Hypothesis #2: Racing’s culture doesn’t value the bird in the hand.
This is the one that makes me the most infuriated. While I will ultimately find a simpler working hypothesis, I think there are some things to mull over here. We have seen Racing do a few things that makes this hypothesis not so easily dismissible. I present this evidence:
Racing has spent the last month giving a preference to what they might one day get, vs. valuing what they currently have. They traded away their all-time leading goal scorer and a solid defender to get picks and cash. They bizarrely let Erin Simon go, knowing that she was a solid back-up defender, exactly what they would need during a time of missing international players. They traded Ebony Salmon, who was not perfect but had proven plenty in order to get more allocation money. Each one of these moves made the status quo worse in my opinion. You can’t always be looking to the future by neglecting your present. One of the last memories I have of my grandfather was him telling me that he wished he had taken my grandmother out to dinner a few more times when she was alive. It was the biggest regret he had in his life. He always saved for a rainy day, worrying about the future, so that he sometimes forgot to live in the moment. Wishing away time is a folly of the young. Racing wants its fans to be patient and trust that better things are coming. I get the need and desire to plan for a better future, but you also need to exist and live and protect the current moment. I also wonder if this philosophy translates on the pitch. You have a range of tactics when you have a lead in a match. On one end of the scale, there is “protect the lead” and on the other end is there is “build on the lead.” Racing chose last night to build on the lead and that tactic worked until it didn’t. This is purely a gut feeling, and why I will ultimately not fully embrace this hypothesis, but Racing (to me) doesn’t seem to be a team that values a lead. It always wants a bigger one. In fact, that actually may be they only way they can win, but it definitely seems to me to be the only way they try to win. This leads me to:
Hypothesis #3: Racing isn’t a good enough team defensively to protect a lead.
And maybe not good enough overall for us to expect anything more than what we are currently getting. If Racing were a good team, they would have put away a frankly pretty poor Orlando team last night. They couldn’t, so the simplest answer is that they themselves aren’t a good team yet. Enough of the season has passed for me to think that while this team has shown flashes of competence and even brilliance, it is still a year and a draft and a free agency season away from being playoff ready. For me, this hypothesis fits Occam’s Razor and is my operating assumption (for now). I would be delighted to be proven wrong.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom, because Racing scored a couple of excellent goals. DeMelo is clearly this team’s best attacking player. More than once she showed the determination to take on the game herself. I will be optimistic on this one and say it was determination and not frustration, but her teammates could stand to step up a bit to make sure that her determination doesn’t morph into its negative cousin.
The offside and penalty calls were debatable, but should be irrelevant when you have 2 goal lead in the second half, so I don’t want to waste any more energy thinking about those. Racing clearly missed Fox the most last night. I’m not sure she changes the outcome, but her absence was the most glaring. I will go back to reference hypothesis number 2 in that I don’t understand the wisdom of signing defensive cover that is going to be unavailable when you need it most in the short term. It’s like Racing isn’t taking this current season seriously. I am sure the club still believes it has made the correct long-term decisions, but it would have been nice to have a few more defensive (or any) options on the bench last night.
Pride 2 Racing 2 Player Ratings
After going into the international break win a draw that felt like a win, Racing returned to action with a draw that feels like a loss. Racing has to figure out how to hold onto a lead, let alone a two gaol lead to be considered as a serious contender for a playoff spot.
Lund-6: Had a really nice save to prevent an early own goal. Probably should have been more confident in her initial approach on the Pride's first.
Martin-6: Subbed off for Malham in the 74th minute.
Bonner-6: In my opinion, her back foot kept Jenkins onside for the 2nd Pride goal.
Lester-7: Good going forward and on defense.
Milliet-7: Deputized well at outside back.
Howell-7 Helped settle the team early in the match.
Olofsson-6: Subbed off for Chidiac and picked up a typical yellow card.
DeMelo-8: Fantastic and deserved the match winner, but it wasn't to be.
Ekic:-8 Had the cheekiest of cheeky goals to open the scoring.
Davis-6: Needs more consistent minutes to show what she can do. Was the most isolated of players when on the pitch.
McDonald-7: Seemed energized by her recent connections with Nadim and continued to put the ball into dangerous spots. Really put in a good shift on defense in the first half, but may have tired a bit in the second.
Pride v Racing @ Daytona Soccer Fest Preview
Alex Chidiac expressing every Racing fan’s sentiment entering into Sunday’s match
Racing enters Sunday’s match in Daytona vs. the Orlando Pride in dire need of a positive result. Based on practice today here are the players available for selection on Sunday:
GK: Lund, Bloomer, Beall
D: Zaneta Wyne, Allison Whitfield (both National Team Replacement players for now), Lester, Bonner, Martin
MF: Chidiac (pending a face mask), Malham, Milliet (who feasibly could start as a defender or forward too), Howell, DeMelo, Olofsson, Otto
F: Goins, Gordon, Ekic, McDonald, Davis
Orlando will be missing Gunny Jonsdottir and Eric McCleod to international duty, but also will be playing their first match without Sydney Leroux after she departed for Angel City. Orlando has the worst points per match average in the league (.888), but Racing isn’t much better at an even 1. I’m not sure actively tanking is a thing in the NWSL, but if it is Orlando seems like it might be doing just that. Therefore, this is a golden opportunity for Racing to pick up 3 points. Then again, this match is taking place at a motor speedway on a newly constructed pitch that will be seeing its 3rd match in 2 days by the time Racing and Orlando take the pitch, so who knows how the ball might bounce. I am a little concerned about the pitch. Coach Björkegren confirmed that the team will get to test out the pitch prior to the match but will be seeing it at its best and not its worst. This soccer fest thing seems gimmicky to me, and I am not a fan of playing soccer outside of soccer specific stadiums (or at least stadiums equipped to handle multiple sports). Knock on wood, cross your fingers, or do whatever superstitious thing you do in hope that the pitch holds up for 3 matches.
Racing’s practices for the next month or so are going to be really limited by the fact that they are only currently carrying 17 outfield players. This pretty much precludes their ability to scrimmage 11 v 11. Coach Kim acknowledged as much but sees it as an opportunity to work on other things. The bonus for me is that I have no clue how the team might line up, so I am not giving up any state secrets by hazarding a guess. My prediction for Daytona with it coming so early in the Racing careers of Whitfield and Wyne (which wouldn’t be the worst name for a small batch bourbon) is that we will see something like the following:
Lund
Milliet/Lester/Bonner/Martin
Olofsson/DeMelo/Howell
Chidiac/McDonald/Davis
Expect 2 deep lying CMs in front of the back 4 with DeMelo at the 10 again, so more like a 4-2-3-1. I don’t think I have ever been right however, so this surely won’t be right either. I did ask Milliet about her flexibility and she was clever enough to know what I was hinting toward and deftly avoided giving anything away. Because we have often seen Björkegren go with players he trusts out of position over those he doesn’t, I say there is a 75% change we see Lauren at left back to start.
In a random, bizarre scheduling note, Racing will go from June 11 to August 27 without playing on a Saturday. In that span they have this upcoming match on Sunday, one on a Tuesday and 5 on Friday nights. They also have a Women’s Cup match on a Wednesday and a Sunday. If you group the NWSL schedule in “match weeks” that include Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon, and any match that occurs outside of that window as a “make up” game, Racing plays the last match during this match week, then the following 6 match weeks have them playing 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 2nd. If you are trying to make up ground and put pressure on the teams around you, winning early in the match week is a good way to do it.
Reality Check
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Saturday mornings are a bit of a wasteland in terms of sports viewing in late June. This past Saturday, I found myself watching a U12 tournament held in Orlando on ESPN Plus. One of the teams featured was the Barcelona boys U12 team. By the time I had watched 5 to 10 minutes, Barcelona had scored twice and completely dominated possession. What was more striking to me was just how “Barcelona” this Barcelona team was at the ages of 10 and 11. It dawned on me that it would likely be possible to recognize a team as a Barcelona team without jerseys regardless of age or gender. The Barcelona Femení team of 2021-22 probably played the most “Barcelona” style of all of their teams this year. Every club in the world would love to be Barcelona (or Real Madrid or Liverpool or Man City on the right day), but most of these other clubs have the self-awareness to realize that they aren’t.
When you are one of the biggest clubs in the world and you have a history of being one for multiple decades, you get to decide what style of play you want to use, and you typically get good enough players to play in this style. And when you miss and some player doesn’t fit in, you can write off your losses and go out and spend millions of Euros to correct a mistake. For the rest of the rational world, you mostly have to compromise and play with the hand you are dealt. Sometimes I think Soccer Holdings thinks it is Barcelona. They only want to go with Plan A, and therefore aren’t ready to play with Plan B. One of my biggest pet peeves in sports is “winning the right way”. What does that even mean? I just want to win. The three points count the same if it’s a 4-3 win or a 1-0 win. I really do think Racing can’t come to grips with who they are vs. who they want to be. Does it make sense to anyone to want to have a pressing team that will spend the dog days of summer running its legs off with less players than most other squads? How are you going to attract players with allocation money when it seems like you can go from star to benchwarmer on a whim?
I think it’s time to examine the dichotomy of how Louisville City’s early success, have been both a boom and bane to Racing Louisville’s very short existence. First, and make no mistake about this, Racing would not exist without the overall success of Louisville City and Soccer Holdings LLC. The fact that there is even a top tier women’s football club in Louisville is amazing. The success of Louisville City’s early campaigns accelerated the growth of soccer in this city. The club figured out a way to win (not just compete) immediately. However, they did so in a bit of a free market environment with much fewer restrictions than are placed on Racing Louisville. The club pretty consistently turned over huge sections of its roster while maintaining a select core of key players. From the outside (the only perspective we as fans are afforded), the club seemed to know what they were doing. I don’t think it’s too much of a leap to assume that the club took a “if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it” approach when it came to building Racing Louisville. Based on a year and a half of operation, I think we can assume that the idea behind building a roster for Racing was similar to Louisville City: Find a coach who will coach the “Louisville City” way and find players that fit the system. There isn’t inherently anything wrong with that idea, but it is greatly aided by the fact that Louisville City got to bully around a bunch of teams that weren’t really concerned with winning while being able to build their initial roster without many restrictions or concerns about transfer windows. Here is where I think the club underestimated how different it was going to be to construct a roster. First, in the case of Louisville City, at best you would be getting marginal MLS level players who frankly are a dime a dozen. I mean no offense, but does anyone think Louisville City’s management was sweating losing Paco Craig a few years ago? Of course they weren’t because they knew they could find a player of equal skill for equal cost. There hasn’t ever been a player on Louisville City that could be considered “world class”. By contrast, Racing’s has world class players. Teams typically tend to try to work around world class players vs. trying to fit them into a rigid system. That’s not to say that any of Racing’s recent departures are national team level starters (yet), but they were either top draft picks or fixtures on U19 or U23 national teams. Second, Louisville City doesn’t find themselves to be too restricted by the European transfer windows, because for the most part they aren’t really after players not already on American soil. In Racing’s case, the NWSL mid-season transfer window coincides with the summer European transfer window. Racing has chosen to do most of its business in the summer window. That means that if the club is going after European players, they either have to convince a player to move in January and miss out on the second half of their club season in Europe, or wait until the European season is over, which has been the case in every instance so far. If that is the strategy, I can live with it, but the club could be more transparent about it. I think many casual fans who are unfamiliar with the idea of transfer windows may have been taken aback by the rush of activity. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, I think the club way overestimated the value of the name on the badge when compared to the name on the back of the jersey when it comes to NWSL fans. For Louisville City, none of the players on the team have a national or international level following like many of the names on Racing Louisville. It took me a while to get it, but the NWSL operates in a manner where the name on the crest is currently secondary to the name on the back of the jersey. The football world is frankly split into two camps, those who favor club football over international and those who favor country over club. I don’t know that either of these is wrong, but the overwhelming majority of NWSL fans were first fans of the USWNT or some other national team. This group is the current core fanbase of the NWSL. It might not always be and in my opinion, the sport will never reach the heights it deserves if in 10 years this is still true. However, that is the reality in today’s world. Alex Morgan is a bigger brand than the San Diego Wave and Megan Rapinoe is a bigger brand than the OL Reign. I think Racing has deluded itself that it is a bigger brand than Emily Fox. It definitely wasn’t a bigger brand than Tobin Heath or Christen Press. Barcelona is bigger than Lionel Messi, and Real Madid and Manchester United are bigger than Cristiano Ronaldo. That shift hasn’t occurred yet in women’s soccer and maybe it never will. Who am I to say that is a bad thing? I will say that it creates a different environment for the men’s and women’s games, so maybe in retrospect Racing should have approached things with a little more curiosity and humility.
So today we end up with another player leaving for a wad of cash. The allocation money is piling up but unfortunately Racing can’t start $200,000 of allocation money at left back in a couple weeks when both Holloway and Fox are on international duty. There is a derogatory label applied to teams that continually have to sell its best players. They are referred to as a Selling Club. I’m not saying Racing has sold its best players (I would be at the front of the mob with a pitchfork and a torch if Racing were to announce that they had sold DeMelo), but you have to have enough incoming players of value to avoid getting that label. I am assured that help is on the way, but will it be here in time to help during the loss of international players for the Euros and CONCACAF? The fact of the matter is that I am OK with each of these decisions to move players, bar one. Kizer was going to see her minutes pulled back and Racing has cover at her spot. Merrick wanted to move home and wasn’t getting minutes. I will have more on Ebony later, but she also wasn’t getting minutes and there is cover for her too. The baffling one in my mind is Erin Simon. She always seemed like a good team player and I am sure she would have played to the best of her ability every time she was on the pitch. Why release her when a) Racing definitely could use her in the next few matches, and b) she didn’t have a club lined up and if that club is in Europe, wouldn’t start play until August? Each of these decisions in a bubble is not hard to understand. Collectively they make it look like Racing has a problem.
James O’Connor said the only thing he really could today when asked if Racing were trying to win this year. Of course he answered that they are, and it’s not impossible that they still can make the playoffs. However, these moves confirm what I think most of us thought anyway: that building Racing is a 3 year plan. That reality might sting a little when you look at how San Diego and Angel City have done in the first third of the league season. Those teams were built to win now at the extent of mortgaging a bit of their future. Only time will tell if that works out for them. To me, Racing has to start to navigate the following items better:
Be ready for roster building for 2023 the day that the 2022 season ends. I think Coach Björkegren’s arrival in January was too late to reach its full impact in year one. There isn’t anything that leads me to believe that he won’t be back for next year.
Stop letting the European team’s take advantage of you in the transfer window. Salmon’s and Bonner’s moves meant that they weren’t with the club on day one last year. If this club is going to be looking to Europe, it needs to get its business done in January, not June. There will surely be incoming players this year from Europe, but again they have missed half of the season. Either force the hands of the European clubs or look elsewhere.
Turn the allocation money into players and fast. I think Racing’s fanbase has run out of patience on seeing only money and draft picks as returns for players.
Realize that stockpiling assets may be good for the balance sheet, but there is also a line on that sheet that accounts for good will and I have to think that it (and maybe tickets sales) has taken a hit while the club is in asset building mode.
Here are a few final thoughts on Ebony. Her contributions to this team were valuable. She averaged a goal contribution (assist or goal) every 190 minutes. For comparison, CeCe Kizer averaged a goal contribution every 243 minutes, Jess McDonald every 162 minutes and Nadia Nadim a spectacular every 94 minutes. When she was on the pitch, she found a way to contribute to the score line. On the flip side, Racing has had 3 head coaches and I have heard every single one of them instruct her to press harder on defense. Be assured that it isn’t her goal scoring that doomed her, but how she did or didn’t fit into the pressing system preferred by Racing. I’m not sure Racing is at the level where they should be deciding that a goal contribution every 162 minutes is worth tossing away a player over not playing in the club’s and coach’s preferred style. But, as we all know I am not in charge. Salmon only had 6 months left on her contract and you would have to be willfully ignorant to say that there was any chance of Racing resigning her. She wasn’t a good fit, but I will let the reader decide whose fault that was. Perhaps the most troubling item (from her perspective) was that there was a breakdown in communication. The club insists that she was communicated with often and given instructions on how to improve. That message was either ignored or not communicated effectively enough depending on your slant. This isn’t the first time that communication has been brought forward as an issue with Racing. I believe communication problems are the root of many of the world’s problem, so I don’t discount that communication is hard especially for players that aren’t getting minutes. Many of Racing’s players (mostly starters) have said that Coach Björkegren is an effective communicator with them. Hopefully this is just a case of two parties unable to get on the same page.
Again, O’Connor reiterated that Björkegren likes a smaller squad. I wonder if it will be big enough to fill out a bench over the next few weeks.
Spirit 2 - Racing 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
The Washington Spirit dominated the stat sheet last night, but Racing snatched a badly needed point at the end of the match. This Racing team looks like a completely different problem for opponents for teams when Nadim is on the pitch. As the season progresses, Racing may have to be a team that tries to win matches 3-2 vs. 1-0. Maybe that was the plan all along.
Racing looked disorganized in the first half. They never seemed quite sure whether to press of lie deep. Coach Björkegren hinted that the plan might have been to sit deep in certain situations. Trinity Rodman's goal was simply a good individual effort off of a long ball. Last year, especially early in the season, Rodman tended to get the positioning wrong and miss shots wide from steep angles. Last night she scored from a tough angle, but not so steep that it was an amazing finish. Still, it was a really, really good finish and she got the best of Fox on that one. Fox hasn't been her terrific self in the last few matches. Against Angel City, I felt she was strategically handled, but in this one I think Rodman simply outplayed her. To be fair, Emily did have a terrific long cross into McDonald to set up Nadim's equalizer. Fox and Rodman will hopefully battle each other for a long time, so expect them each to get the better of the other from time to time.
Racing might have done better on the 2nd goal. Biegalski was giving way too much space to deliver a cross into Hatch, and Elwell knocked in the rebound from the initial save. I have a completely unconfirmed suspicion, that the space given to her partially led to Ekic being subbed off in the 56th minute. The right back is the left winger's responsibility in that scenario. Ekic plays out wide, but I think was used to playing more centrally prior to her time at Racing. More than once during earlier matches this season, I have heard the coaches instructing her to be in better defensive positions. This time she might have been pulled for not being in the right spot.
Racing's passing in the first half was to put it bluntly, awful. The team seemed out of sorts when put into stark contrast to the Spirit's excellent passing moves. The Spirit created dangerous chance after dangerous chance, and had to be disappointed with only netting two goals. Several times in the first half, Racing played hopeful or blind passes into spots where there wasn't another Racing player around. Many times a Spirit defender would stick really close to a Racing player to prevent them from getting their head around to pick out a good pass. After the first half whistle, I thought Racing was out of the match.
The introduction of Nadia Nadim in the 56th minute changed the match for Racing. Not only did she score the 2 goals to equalize, but she seemed to unlock the next level in Jess McDonald's game. McDonald always looks more effective with a striking partner. Racing's most recent formations have employed Chidiac, Milliet, DeMelo and Kizer (before she left) in its attacking positions. None of those players are natural strikers, although Kizer played there by default for Racing last year at times. True stikers like being in the box, and a few times this year, there has been a noticeable lack of a presence in the box to follow shots especially in transition. Early in the season, McDonald commented that she loved playing with Kirsten Davis who tends to have more of a striker’s mindset even when playing out wide. Last night showed the impact of having another player on the pitch who is desperate to score goals.
Coach Björkegren commented that this point felt like more than just a point. Anytime you fight back from a 2-0 deficit on the road vs. a defending champion I tend to agree, especially coming off of a 3 match losing streak and heading into the international break.
To me the international break is a “break” in the way that a Disney World vacation is a “vacation”. You burn a lot of energy and return exhausted, and it is an event looked upon with great enthusiasm by a vocal section of the population and dreaded by another less vocal section (although I am in the super minority section who is vocally critical). From a club's perspective there are only really negative aspects to international competition: interruption to momentum, player fatigue or at worst player injuries. I hope all of Racing's international players return from the break uninjured and not too tired.
Spirit 2 -Racing 2 Player Ratings
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Racing will be much happier with the point based on a first half thoroughly dominated by the Spirit. Nadia Nadim scored Racing's first ever brace from the bench and gave fans a dose of what this team can be offensively with her fully fit.
Lund-6: Has a great knack for stopping the first shot, but has been rather unlucky on the second chances recently.
Fox-6: Rodman won this round, and Emily didn't see as much of the ball as usual.
Lester-6: Had another solid match.
Bonner-6: Ditto for Bonner, who was good in the air.
Martin-6: Was good on both sides and got off a rare shot in the box.
Olofsson-6: Had a solid night, but I feel like she needs to show more offensively
Howell-7: Won the most tackles on the night.
DeMelo-7: Her passing accuracy was a bit off and she got knocked around some too, but her charge up the middle of the pitch started off the move for Racing's opening goal.
Ekic-5: She played more minutes than she usually does when subbed on, but it's never great to be subbed on and off in the same match.
Milliet-7: Won possession 8 times and won 4 fouls, both of which were the most for a Racing outfield player.
McDonald-8: She is a different player when she has another player willing to commit to getting in the box. Assisted both goals.
Nadim-9: (Player of the Match) Scored 2 excellent goals and completely turned the match around to save a point. It was clearly the greatest substitute appearance in Racing's brief history (if you ignore Lund's legendary appearance in the Women's Cup final).
Spirit v Racing Preview
Courtesy Racing Louisville
If you were wondering how hot it had to be before Coach Björkegren would wear short sleeves, the answer is however hot it was at practice this morning. He has been asked several times why he is always in long sleeves, and he has always responded that his is used to the temperature in Cyprus. I guess today was even hotter than he was accustomed to enduring. The big(ish) midweek news is that Tobin Heath's rights were traded to the OL Reign for $50 000 in allocation money and a 2nd and 4th round pick. In other words, Heath's rights were sold for the opportunity to pay another player and a hope and a prayer. To get anything for Heath's rights is a “win” I guess. Maybe we can finally declare the mess cleaned up from that jackass of a previous coach. I get hammered every time I say this, but that won't stop me from saying it again: I'm not sure there is tremendous value in the NWSL college draft after the first round. There have surely been some great picks in the 2nd round, but I think after that, the picks aren't of much value. There are 3 main factors why I believe this. 1) The rounds keep getting bigger (it has increased by 33% since the 2019 draft). 2) Free Agency will be starting next year. 3) Team can acquire International players outside of the draft process. If Racing can convince some other team that there is value in some of its 5 current picks after the first round, then I wish them the best of luck. Also Coach Kim said today publicly (again) that he likes a small squad, so does having 6 picks in next year's draft reconcile with that strategy?
Oh well, at least there is a match to talk about too. Racing continue its current stretch of facing teams that very badly need a win too. The Spirit haven't won since May 1st. They seem to be having an extended hangover since the Challenge Cup. Their form has fairly placed them 8th in the table based on being 8th in both goals scored and conceded. It is hard to fathom that at some point they won't turn things around.
In Racing news, Emily Fox will miss 3 matches very soon for the CONCACAF Championship (hurray?), so Coach Björkegren discussed opportunities for other players to step up in a few weeks. I have seen some suggestions that the Challenge Cup might be a good tournament to play in the international breaks. I kind of like that idea. I definitely like it more than experiencing 3 matches without Fox and possibly Howell. However, they will be around until the end of June and Racing desperately needs at least a point on Friday. If you are still with me at this point, let me say one more semi-controversial thing: I wonder what Savannah McCaskill would lhave looked like at the top of Racing's press. Last year she definitely over dribbled a bit much for my liking, but she sure is a nuisance. The reason I bring this up, is that there seems to be a bit of a sting missing at the top of Racing's press at the moment. They haven’t scored from pressing in a while. To my best recollection, they haven't gotten one directly from the press since Davis’ goal vs. Houston. I won't pin the blame on a single player, but maybe a fresh look up front is what the doctor orders. On the opposite end of the pitch, the defense simply can'tgive up multiple goals again. I tweeted earlier this week that Racing are the league’s worst team in protecting a 1-0 lead. Here is that graphic again.
Racing's coach and players keep saying the right things about needing to be better in the “details”. Their high line is always going to leave them vulnerable to a certain type of attack. On all 3 goals that Angel City scored, there was either a player out of position or in a really bad match-up. If that happens again expect Rodman or Hatch to make them pay again .
Racing 2 - Angel City 3 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Last night’s match was a microcosm of Racing’s season so far: so many things to like in style and effort, but not enough concentration in the key moments. It’s way too early to write off any team this season but Racing just has the look of a team that seems to be one more offseason away from becoming the club they want to be. That’s not to say that the playoffs are beyond them, but they definitely need to figure out how to keep a lead if the club is going to make a run this year.
Racing took a well-deserved early lead on Gemma Bonner’s excellent 29th minute goal. From the time she placed the ball DeMelo knew she was going to hit the ball low and hard (she confirmed this for me after the match when we spoke) and hope for good things to happen, which they did. From the view in my seat, I could tell that DeMelo was not standing over the ball in her typical manner for curling one toward the goal. Her two options were to loft a soft ball to the back post, or put her laces through it. If you watch the replay, you can see Chidiac running away toward the top of the box after talking to DeMelo and as soon as that happened, I said to myself “laces”. Seconds later DeMelo drove the ball toward the goal and got the deflection she was after. It was not the usual free kick that you see teams take from that spot. I believe if Ekic has been in the match at this point, she would have been given the kick and curled a shot in with her left foot. I appreciated the creativity shown by DeMelo in that situation.
Angel City equalized on a very direct play in the 36th minute, but I believe that goal had actually been greatly assisted by Angel City’s formation and plan to neutralize Fox. Christen Press had not been greatly involved in the match up to that point, but the one thing that she did was let the Racing defenders know that she was playing centrally (something she obviously can do but tends to prefer the wings). The great thing about Emily Fox is that she can defend pretty much anyone, but she can’t be everywhere at once. If Angel City had deployed Press wide from the start, I am fairly certain that Fox would have picked that side to defend and stuck with her pretty much all night. However, whether it was through planning or not (I have to assume it was) Angel City were able to disguise how they were planning to use Press in attack right up until the moment they needed a goal. On the goal Press was still deployed pretty centrally, but was definitely more on the right hand side. Racing’s defense had shifted over to that side too, but was not ready for the long ball and when it came in, Bonner was the closest defender and no other defender had time to help. Press easily beat Bonner and slotted the goal into the net. I believe that since she hadn’t really been involved up until that point, Racing had lost track of Press. It was a clever deployment of her by not giving Racing the chance to put its best defender on her, and I give the Angel City coaches credit for that.
The other two goals conceded by Racing were brought on by lapses in concentration. Angel City’s second goal came as a direct result of not being ready for the counter from a throw in deep in its attacking half. Neely Martin took the throw in, which ultimately put her way out of position for the counter. It's almost pro forma for the left or right backs to take the throw ins, but Racing has used McDonald for throws ins deep in their half several times this year. With a throw in so deep, I think a quick counter is always the risk and once again Press made Racing pay. She was given all kinds of space on the right-hand side and sent Olofsson the wrong way once she entered the box. Then she has an absolutely exquisite little left footed chip to the back post which Savannah McCaskill headed in from an unmarked position. On the second goal, there seemed to be a breakdown in communication. There was a very good pass into Simone Charley from Le Bihan which Lester seemed to have covered, but Lund for some reason decided to come for the ball and clattered into Charley to concede the penalty. Even if Lester doesn’t get there, she had Bonner there for help. There was really no need to have Lund come off of her line in that situation, but she did and McCaskill scored her second of the night from the penalty spot.
For Racing fans, I am sure it was a tough night to see Press get a goal and an assist and McCaskill score twice. Press reminded us of her overall fantastic quality and maybe showed that Racing is missing a super-elite level goal scorer (McDonald is great, but still doesn’t score at Press’s rate.) The McCaskill goals probably were the toughest ones to process. McCaskill was a fan favorite and I couldn’t help but feel a little happy for her. I spoke with her for about a minute after the match and she was gracious in victory. She really is a player you love to have on your team, and hate to play against. She was her usual wrecking-ball self, but deployed in a much better position for her and her team. Racing simply misused her, and while that was most-assuredly out of necessity, it was a necessity of its own making. With the departures of Kizer and Merrick this week, not much of the expansion draft is left. I believe Racing is on the right track, but it’s hard not to think that if Coach Björkegren has been given the keys to the club in year 1 vs. year 2, maybe the team is a bit further along. I think McCaskill might have really liked to play for Coach Kim. She really seems to have the qualities that he values. I will never apologize for being happy for seeing a player find the right team and situation, and I think Savannah may have found it at Angel City.
It was great to see Nadia Nadim open her account for the season. If Racing are to turn its fortunes around, Nadia will have to be one of the keys.
Racing 2 - Angel City 3 Player Ratings
The effort was good for Racing tonight even if the result wasn't. Racing dominated big sections of the match but couldn't overcome a few key mistakes.
Lund-5: Probably didn't need to go to ground and give up the penalty on Angel City's last goal.
Martin-6: An average night for her.
Bonner-7: Scored a really good goal and I'm not going to fault her for Angel City's first goal because she simply shouldn't be left in a position to have to defend Press one on one.
Lester-6: Not really at fault for any of the goals Racing conceded.
Fox-6: I will get more into this tomorrow, but I thought Angel City's game plan worked well to take her out of the match defensively.
Olofsson-5: Got turned completely around by Press on her excellent delivery to McCaskill. Subbed off at 61 minutes.
Howell-6: A decent if unspectacular effort.
DeMelo-8 (Player of the Match): Made both of Racing's goals. Tomorrow I will break down her excellent assist on Bonner's goal.
Chidiac-6: Subbed off really early in the 2nd half, but was good in her time on the pitch.
Milliet-7: Her flexibility continues to let Coach Björkegren switch up things in the 2nd half.
McDonald-7: Really unlucky not to score, and gets my gratitude for letting me basically drag her over to sign a poster for girl who had traveled from Ohio for her 14th Birthday to see the match.
Nadim-7: Surely had to feel great seeing the ball go into the back of the net.
Racing v Angel City Preview
“My mind is elsewhere” was Emina’s comment upon being asked to answer a few questions at practice after being shown Jack Harlow’s birthday message to her on Instagram. Considering the recent loss of two of Racing’s original players and two consecutive 1-0 losses the vibes at practice on Thursday seemed good. Sav DeMelo received a pie in the face after being named to the NWSL Best XI for May. After practice on Thursday, Coach Björkegren commented that the previous day’s practice has been their best ever. I always think it is better not to dwell on the negative if you want to turn your fortunes around, and it looks like the team is ready to head into Saturday’s match against Angel City with a positive attitude.
Both Racing and Angel City find themselves in the logjam in the middle of the NWSL table with 7 teams separated by 2 points. After a really hot start where the club won 3 out of 4, Angel City has only taken a point from its last 3 matches and hasn’t scored since May 21st, which coincided with its last victory. Being a new team, I think Angel City will be expecting ups and downs but will be looking at Racing Louisville as a chance to turn its fortunes around. Similarly, Racing will be looking to score its first goal since May 22nd and will be looking to avoid a 3-match losing skid. With all of Angel City’s attacking talent you would expect them not to be last in the league in goals, but that is where they sit. However, if they score, they win. They have won all 3 league matches in which they have netted at least one goal but have been shutout 4 times with 3 losses.
Once again, the task seems blatantly apparent for Racing: don’t concede an early goal. Angel City likes to have the ball as much as Racing (51.7% and 53.3% respectively), so expect a good battle in midfield. Racing will have at least one change in its starting XI, but I don’t yet have a good feel for who will be taking over for Kizer. Nadia Nadim could be a natural fit, but she is probably still a few matches away from being ready to start. DeMelo is a possibility, but she tends to like to play a little more to one side. Emina Ekic is another possibility since she played centrally at U of L. I also wouldn’t be totally surprised to see McDonald play a little deeper and to give Ebony Salmona chance a start up front or play as a front two with McDonald. Of all of those options, I think I would put my money on DeMelo as the ten with Olofsson taking her spot in the midfield.
No matter what the actual starting positions are, expect Fox to stick with Press. Press has been playing left wing mostly, so expect Fox to start at right back. Since Press is capable of playing anywhere in the attacking half, Racing might employ Martin at left back in case Fox needs to switch sides (Holloway as a left-footed left back is somewhat limited in her ability to switch). McCaskill will be familiar to Racing fans and can also be a nuisance pretty much anywhere on the pitch.
Racing Trade Kizer and Merrick to KC Current
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing announced today that the team completed a trade with the KC Current sending CeCe Kizer and Addy Merrick in exchange for $150,000 in allocation money and an international roster slot for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Both players apparently requested a trade “to be back closer to their families.” As with any trade/player movement some fans will feel angry because they are losing some of their favorite players.
Kizer served an important role and scored important goals in Racing’s history. She will leave the club as its all-time leading goal-scorer (8) and assist provider (5). She memorably scored Racing’s first ever goal in its first ever match vs. the Orlando Pride. Beyond that, she was a regular in my section after the matches signing autographs for fans. I am also fairly confident that she was several fans’ absolute favorite player and a popular back of the jersey choice for many fans. However, part of me wonders if her time in the Starting XI was about to end regardless of this trade. She was mostly used by Racing in the 9/10 roles, which is where Nadia Nadim is likely to find herself very soon. Last year when Racing needed her presence, she was a good player in whatever attacking role she was in. This year she had managed to keep her place in the Starting XI, but it wasn’t always a given. Racing has other options in central attack now, and definitely many more options than last year. From a statistical contribution standpoint (using FotMob’s Player rating), CeCe ranks 8th on the team. In addition, American Soccer Analysis has CeCe rated 226 out of 256 NWSL players in Goals Added (which measures a player’s total on-ball contribution in attack and defense). I’m not a huge fan of this metric, but it is a measure by which to judge a player. To sum up, she will be missed (by some more than others) but is not irreplaceable.
Addisyn Merrick will probably be one of Racing’s great “what if” players. She was selected number one overall by Racing in the NWSL 2020 expansion draft, so you can infer that the team had big plans for her. As a versatile defender she seemed to be the ideal pick, but injuries killed her first season at Racing. When she returned healthy for 2022, many fans including me thought she would force her way into the starting back four. Somehow things just didn’t work out that way. I think Merrick will benefit from a change in scenery. The simple fact is that Coach Björkegren preferred other defenders. I deliberately say it that way because I believe it is true. Coaches look at their squads and decide which players can best help them win matches. It does not mean that the players that don’t get minutes are not good players, it just means that the coach believes there are better options. Addy’s best performance for Racing would turn out to be the second match of two enforced starts due to sickness on the back line. She played excellently in that match vs. San Diego and hasn’t seen the field since. A consistent run in the side is what she needs, and it just seemed like she wasn’t going to get that opportunity here in Louisville. I wish her the best of luck in Kansas City because luck has sure been against her in her time at Racing.
Now read into this what you will…Coach Björkegren said today that Wednesday’s practice (neither Kizer nor Merrick were involved) was the best practice that he has seen from his team this year. Good practices don’t always translate to good performances, but practice is a good indicator of mentality and effort. Let’s hope that translates to the field on Saturday.
Racing 0 Courage 3 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Last night’s Racing performance was reminiscent of several mid-season performances that Racing put in last year and eerily similar to some of those put in against the North Carolina Courage. The effort and energy seemed low from the start which resulted in another early goal conceded. After the match, Coach Björkegren conceded that there were too many areas of concern in the match to focus on a single one.
Racing has continued to sign players throughout the season and then immediately integrate them into the Starting XI. I would say that Lester has been the best of these decisions. Chidiac has put in solid performances, but seemingly at the expense of Olofsson, Davis, and Ekic. Holloway in my opinion hasn’t done much to merit an immediate inclusion. I saw some noise on Twitter about Simon and Merrick not being included in the squad at all. The fact of the matter is that who does and doesn’t start will always be up for debate among the fans. I asked Coach Björkegren after the match if he was considering switching things up a bit. I give him credit for basically saying that it would be a consideration, but also he said he wasn’t ready to move on from the loss yet and talk about the next match vs. Angel City.
Coming into the match, the Courage and Racing were the top two teams in the league in possession, so obviously something has to give in the match yesterday. The Courage were able to completely dominate the first half and got into halftime with a 2 goal advantage and over 60% of the possession. Racing simply need more of the ball especially early in the matches. In previous matches after going behind early, there has seemingly been a spark in the team to fight back. Last night the team seemed to be missing that spark. The way that the Courage play surely had something to do with that, but I also wonder if it wasn’t a bit of “here we go again” after conceding another early goal. In the final 10-20 minutes, Racing finally looked like a team desperate to win balls. While you would like to see that same fire all match you can also see that one mistake when giving that much effort to the offensive side can lead to dangerous counters. Personally, I didn’t think Racing’s press worked at all last night because you need to get a foothold in the game in order to get it going. In short, Racing needs to find a way to start matches better.
Racing did have a chance to get back into the match via a couple of opportunities from Jess McDonald: one through a first half effort that bounced off of the crossbar (where no other Racing player was in the box for the rebound) and a golden opportunity that was incorrectly ruled offside.
The flag had gone up and the whistle had blown too early for me to call it a “disallowed” goal. People will call for VAR again after this and others (like me) will point out that it is an expensive technology. However, I believe that there could be a compromise for calls that are so obviously incorrect to be quickly reviewed. I believe the major expense in the VAR technology is the multiple angles needed and the drawing of the lines. In last night’s instance neither would be necessary. A quick look at the broadcast replay showed that the decision was incorrect. Why not have somebody in a central office be available to take a look at clear and obvious errors? Frankly, this is also a bit of a pipe dream because 1) officials would have to be trained to leave their offside flags down until a phase of play was completed on close calls, and 2) I don't think the league is run well enough to afford or manage something as simple as this.
Now is not the time to wallow in the pain of two consecutive defeats. The team (Emily Fox in particular) looked down after the match yesterday. It's hard sometimes to keep a positive attitude after a couple of bad results, but winning typically comes from confidence. This may be the biggest test of Björkegren's tenure: to see if the team can stop the bleeding before it turns into a losing streak.
Racing 0 - Courage 3 Player Ratings
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Racing had arguably their worst performance in recent memory in tonight's match. Racing can't keep conceding early goals and expect to get anything from the game.
Lund-6: Not really at fault for any of the goals and had a really good save to keep it at 0-1.
Fox-6: Wasn't called on in defense a great deal.
Lester-6: Probably the pick of the defenders tonight.
Bonner-6: Had an average match.
Holloway-5: It’s still early, but has to improve to keep he spot in the Starting XI.
Howell-6: Had a decent match with 9 recoveries.
DeMelo-6: Didn't fill up the stat sheet like normal but was the driving force in trying to find a late goal.
Chidiac-6: Keeps putting in solid performances.
Kizer-5: Not really involved in any real dangerous possession for Racing.
Milliet-6: Seemed to rush a couple of decent chances in the 2nd half.
McDonald-6: Unlucky to hit the post and their was some question about whether she was offside on her opportunity in the 2nd half. Regardless she was flagged off several seconds before the ball went into the back of the net.
Racing v Courage Preview
The North Carolina Courage come to town on Saturday as a bit of an enigma. The Courage are last in the league with a single point, but surprisingly won the preseason Challange Cup. Racing’s opponent leads the league in possession (57.6%) and number of completed passes per match, but are dead last in shots on target per match and next to last in goals scored per match. FotMob gives out Player of the Match awards based on their statistical performance player ratings and no NCC player has won the award in a league match so far this season (as a comparison Racing has 3 with Fox having 2 and DeMelo the other).
However, for Racing the Courage are a puzzle that they have yet to solve. The teams have faced each other 4 times with the Courage winning all 4 and the aggregate score line is 13-3 in North Carolina’s favor. When the season started, I thought that the Courage were going to struggle, but they played really well early on. It’s possible that the team benefited from surprising the other team’s in their group, or maybe their group was on the weaker side as those team currently occupy 4 out of the bottom 6 positions in the table.
Likely, the truth is that we don’t know who the Courage are yet. I suspect that they are probably in a group of teams that will be challenging for a playoff spot, but based on early returns that group could include all of the teams. In fact, it could be argued that there are no excellent or really bad teams in the league this year. That means that every team should be taken seriously and that every team has a legitimate chance to win every match. Racing had been on a run of really good performances, but Coach Björkegren conceded in his press conference today that Racing’s performance in the last match wasn’t up to their usual standard. Hopefully the most recent match was more of blip vs. a trend.
The big news on the Racing front is that Nadia Nadim is now available for selection. Both Björkegren and Nadim said that it would take a while for her to be up to full match fitness. It will be intriguing to see how Nadia is used as a sub. I could see her as a like-for-like replacement for both McDonald and Kizer. It’s also entirely possible to see her subbed on as an extra attacker if Racing trail after 60 minutes, but we all hope that doesn’t happen. I believe Nadia will have to get a few substitute appearances under her belt before she is under consideration for a start and Nadia also said that she expected to have to earn her way into the starting lineup and to fight for a place in the match day squad. Jordyn Bloomer is still in a walking boot and is “weeks” away from returning according to Coach Kim.
If you read my piece from earlier this week or follow me on Twitter, you might have noticed that I have become a bit fascinated by how teams perform when scoring first. Here is the lowdown on the Courage:
This season the Courage are averaging .25 points/match when scoring first which is below the league average
Conversely, the team is averaging 2.25 points/match when scoring first which is right at the league average
If Racing can jump out into a lead vs. the Courage (something they achieved on a 24th minute goal by CeCe Kizer in their first ever meeting), I like their chances at taking all 3 points. Racing has scored first in 6 of their matches in 2022 and the Courage has scored first in 8 (7 in the Challenge Cup and only once in the league) which may be the key stat in the shifting of their form. Here is the updated graphic through Wednesday’s match between the Spirit and Red Stars.
Current 1 Racing 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Much of the post game chatter yesterday surrounded Coach Björkegren's comments regarding the field conditions of the practice facility in Kansas City. The response from the Current was: “We take this matter very seriously. The field Louisville was provided is the same field that all teams have been provided when traveling to KC, without incident. We will look into any issues that occurred during yesterday’s training session.” There is no reason not to believe this. However, whether or not a visiting team takes advantage of this practice field is completely dependent on how early the teams arrive for the match. I understand that Racing has practiced at Swope Park on previous trips, and their earlier arrival for this trip meant that they needed to use the other field.
Regardless of the reason, the reality is that Racing did not look as sharp as they had looked in the previous 4 or 5 matches. Falling behind early again could have something to do with that as well. Interestingly, I have been laboring under the false assumption that Racing was uniquely prone to needing to score first in matches to influence their results. I looked at all of the non 0-0 results this year (Challenge Cup included) to see which teams were benefiting the most by scoring first. All of the analysis that follows is based purely on non 0-0 matches. There are a few ways to looks at this. Kansas City has the highest deviation from their average points taken with a perfect win record when scoring first and an average of .55 points when not. San Diego also has a perfect record when scoring first, and have a dreadfull avcerage of .29 points when not (SD is averaging slightly more points in non 0-0 matches with 1.41 compared to 1.31 for KC). The OL Reign and Courage have scored first the most (8 times). Angel City haven't taken a single point without scoring first, something it took Racing pretty much all year to accomplish last season. The only category where Racing is at the extreme is that they only average 1.83 points when scoring first, which is tied for last with Chicago. Obviously it is still greatly advantageous to score first (teams average 2.29 points vs. 0.45 points when doing so), but Racing doesn't benefit as much as other teams in the league when they do. Falling behind pretty much dooms your chances of winning with only 4 matches (6%) being won by the team that trailed first, and none of those teams trailed later than the 56th minute.
The stats will say that Racing completed 74% of their passes, but their passing yesterday was far from sharp. Perhaps the most telling stat was that they only really were successful in completing passes in their own half. In their previous 4 matches (all undefeated) the percentage of total passes completed that occurred in their own half were 50%, 59%, 60%, and 61%. Yesterday that percentage was 68%. Said differently only 32% of their completed passes occurred in the opposition half. I believe partial credit is due to KC for keeping Racing pinned into its own half, but Racing seemed to get pressured against the touch lines and thus created an “extra defender” for KC by not playing longer balls or trying to work the ball across the pitch.
On the positive side, Racing haven't conceded a goal from open play in 3 matches. KC didn't really look close to scoring other than the excellently taken penalty by LaBonta. I believe Lester and Bonner are starting to compliment each other well, and we'll chalk up Holloway's performance to first game jitters. The penalty was a bit soft, but probably fair.
Current 1 Racing 0 Player Ratings
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
After falling behind early, Racing could never quite get a foothold in the match. The passing and energy were not up to the usual standards and thus resulted in no points.
Lund-6: Could do nothing on the excellently taken penalty.
Holloway-5: A case of early nerves cost Racing any chance at points.
Lester-7: Made several really good recoveries to keep the match within striking distance.
Bonner-7: Her positioning was solid and kept the score close.
Fox-6: Not up to her usual high standards, but not terrible.
Olofsson-6: Looked a bit off the pace in her return to the starting lineup.
DeMelo-6: Was due an average match, which is what she had.
Howell-6: See DeMelo.
Milliet-7: Came close to getting the equalizer, but was just wide.
Kizer-6: Looked dangerous in the first half, but couldn't get anything going in the second.
McDonald-6: On a different day probably turns at least one of her chances into shot on goal at least.