Michael Shaw 1/25/23 Michael Shaw 1/25/23

First Practice

First of all, let me clearly state:

It was way too windy and cold for my liking. I would like to present today’s weather as Exhibit A in the case of never moving the NWSL schedule to match the FIFA calendar. Some people may be willing to endure this weather to watch soccer, but not me. I endured about 10 minutes of practice before begging off and leaving Bekki Morgan to observe. Prior to my chickening out, we did get to hear from Coach Björkegren and Thembi Kgatlana. Here are the items of note from Kim:

The team will have a couple of weeks of training prior to heading to Florida. The pre-Florida training will likely be all fitness and conditioning training with tactics coming during the Florida trip.
In his time with Carson Pickett in Cyprus he witnessed what we all witnessed from her which is a deadly left foot on set pieces, especially corners.
He is mostly content with the roster as it sits, but is looking for one to two more moves to bolster attack.

Thembi Kgatlana shared that she is closer than expected to a return to action, setting April as the target date. She also commented that she enjoyed working with a roster of young talent in that it might give the team an advantage as their opponents might not always know what to expect. She was also cagey about how she might be deployed on this team, citing surprise as one of the elements in her personal arsenal. While not a full participant in practice, she was kicking the ball around before practice and appeared to be moving normally.

Michael Shaw 1/23/23 Michael Shaw 1/23/23

Louisville Trades Fox for NCC Defenders Erceg and Pickett

*Courtesy Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images*

Louisville announced the trade of Emily Fox to the North Carolina Courage for defenders Abby Erceg and Carson Pickett. I will start with a full disclosure: Carson Pickett is my favorite player in the NWSL excluding the women who played for Louisville. This means my “analysis” of the trade may be colored by my thoughts on her. Erceg and Pickett provide one thing that Louisville certainly lacks: experience. Pickett is just about the best attacking defender in the league in my opinion (backed up by American Soccer Analysis’s Goals Added statistic). Erceg adds height to the team as well, standing at 5’10.

Taken at face value, this is a really good deal for Louisville. Using the Goals Added stat, Pickett ranked 5th in the league and Erceg 16th in goals added, while Fox was at number18 which was the best showing for Louisville. Incidentally to those overlooking (not me!) the departure of Gemma Bonner, she was Louisville's next highest player at 24th. In my opinion, for all of Fox’s many great qualities, she needed to contribute more on the offensive end. If she hits her full potential in North Carolina (which I say is more than likely), expect here to be getting in the 5 to 6 goal contribution range each year. However, as of the announcement only Erceg even has an option for 2024 for either club. This may be a single year deal for all involved. This is why the deal got done in my opinion. None of the players involved were especially close to extending their contracts with their current clubs. At the end of the day, this makes sense for all parties involved.

Except…

Carson Pickett was available in the expansion draft for Louisville. He-who-must-not-be-named has screwed us once again. It was entirely within the realm of possibility that year-one Louisville could have seen Pickett at left back and Fox at right back. In essence Louisville traded their first ever draft pick (the number one draft pick in 2021) for a player they theoretically could have selected in the expansion draft and a 33 year-old center back. Looking at it from that perspective, it’s not great value for the number one overall pick.

But Louisville is still cleaning up the mess left by the front office and original coaching staff (excluding Segio Gonzalez who for now gets a pass from me). I am not going to rehash the continued uncovering of bad actors as this club, but I would advise fans to be ready for anything when it comes to the (mis)management of this club.

Michael Shaw 1/13/23 Michael Shaw 1/13/23

Five New Players Join Louisville on Draft Day

After the draft day was completed yesterday, there were multiple key storylines: 1) Louisville still has no real proven solution at center back, but now has an additional $205,000 to address that need, 2) the club could convert new addition Paige Monaghan to defender (she is listed as a forward in the defender section of the roster with a squad number of 0), and 3) there are 4 new draftees with varying probabilities of making the opening day squad.

Let’s start with the money. The Washington Spirit couldn’t wait to give its money to Louisville and traded up to 28th at the expense of $30,000 to move up one spot to take a goalkeeper (for reasons apparently beyond my comprehension). Then Washington purchased Louisville's fourth round pick outright for $25,000. Maybe the team thought that money was cursed (the Spirit seemed to perform bizarrely poorly for a reigning champion). The bigger windfall came from Gotham when they sent Monoghan and $150,000 and an international spot for the 4th pick. Coach Björkegren all but said it was Madril or bust, “In our preparation leading up to today, there was only one center back we wanted, but on draft day, it became clear we weren’t going to have that chance at No. 4.” It’s unclear if the club gets to use any of the $205,000 in allocation money to cover its recent $200,000 fine. Regardless, the official club website doesn’t reflect that Louisville got the message (JOC’s mug still prominently displayed as the picture link as of Friday morning.).

I will assume that even an organization as inept as the NWSL won’t let you pay a fine with Monopoly money, so the windfall should likely go toward player acquisition.

Paige Monoghan will almost certainly be penciled into the starting XI for Louisville to start the season, but the big question will be “In what postition?”. The club’s second 2nd round pick, Brianna Martinez could fill a need at left or right back, so Monoghan could start the season in a more attacking role. Just as easily, Monoghan could find herself in a role as left or right back opposite Emily Fox. Regardless of how the team ultimately uses her, she seems like she could be useful as a starter or coming off the bench to add a scoring threat. She doesn’t have a great goal scoring record, but did score 3 last year, one as a substitute. Expect news on her contract terms very soon.

There is a very real possibility that none of this year’s draftee make the NWSL roster, but I will try to avoid being too much of a downer. Currently, the roster stands at 24 players under contract (including Monoghan) and Björkegren has shown himself to be absolutely comfortable with that number. That means that a draft pick is likely going to have to beat out someone on the current roster. In my mind, Martinez has the best shot. Rebecca Holloway was given next to no shot when she joined Louisville last year, but really didn’t impress in the playing time she was given. I think she might be at risk of losing her roster spot. However, she is using an international spot and that could complicate things as I am not clear on the roster rules for those. Wyne could be the other player at risk. As for the forwards that Louisville drafted, they might find their short-term options rosier than Martinez due to the number of injuries at the forward position. Kgatlana and Nadim seem to be progressing in rehab, but with no timetable. Ekic is probably closer to returning, but not guaranteed to be ready to start the season. Louisville will definitely need players in training camp, so Jadyn Edwards, Riley Parker, and Kayla Fischer will get their chances. From a roster spot perspective, Malham and Goins may be at risk, but I predict that duo from Arkansas hold off the challenge from the new draftees and keep their spots. If Kgatlana and Nadim find themselves healthy by World Cup time in July/August, they will be off to Australia/New Zealand for a month. I don’t think it would be a bad thing to carry a roster of 28 during a World Cup year, but what do I know. It is within the realm of possibility that 2 of the drafted forwards spend some time on Louisville’s roster, but I don’t see a clear path for all three.

Michael Shaw 1/9/23 Michael Shaw 1/9/23

Taking out the Trash (clearing out the archive)

Before the Yates Report was published, I was working on 2 articles, one for the State of Louisville website and one for this one. On the State of Louisville website, I wrote quarterly reviews of the season. I had completed and submitted for publication the Fourth Quarter review of Louisville’s season. An hour later, the Yates report was published, and I pulled it back and it was never published on the State of Louisville website. I am going to present it here, unedited, to draw a close to my 2022 work for the State of Louisville, so that I can start fresh in 2023. The other piece that I was working on was a season review for this site. I had started to write it simultaneously but didn’t get more than 25% of the way through. Here is the fourth quarter review presented from my state of mind on October 3, 2022.

Racing Louisville: 2022 Fourth Quarter Review

Racing's performances ranged from total disaster to pure bliss in the last six matches of the season, but ultimately lead to hope for 2023

In my first quarter review of Racing Louisville's season, I decided to divide the season up into uneven quarters comprising of matches in a 5-6-5-6 format. I was full of optimism after the first five matches, and it was pretty much straight downhill from there. Now that the season is complete, here are the points totals for those four arbitrary divisions:

First Five: 8 Points
Next Six: 2 Points
Next Five: 4 Points
Last Six: 9 Points

You can argue that the first five matches were a better performance with 1.6 points per match or you could argue that the Last Six were better with 9 points won. Earning 1.6 points per match would have put Racing in 6th place and in line for the last playoff spot. At the top of the league there isn't much distance between winning the shield (which the OL Reign did with 40 points) and just missing the playoffs (which the North Carolina Courage did with 32 points). With 23 points, Racing still seems quite a sizable distance from the upper echelons of the league. All thing considered, Racing did perform better this season, but not good enough to been seen as more than a good early-season story. While they ended up with 23 points, which is one more than last year and finished ahead of three teams instead of just one, they were still in 9th place (due to the two new California teams that both finished ahead of Racing). It could have been much, much worse and things looked to be headed toward disaster after their biggest match of the season: the Fill the Fam game on August 27th.

Hitting a wall

Racing's third quarter of the season was mostly defined by decent performances but middling results. However, those performances didn't convince me enough to predict the team from finishing higher than 11th. On August 27th, Racing laid an absolute egg in front of the crowd at Lynn Family Stadium. If you are a glutton for punishment, you can relive the embarrassment here and here on my blog and on an emergency episode of Butchertown Rundown. I advise you to not do that. Racing then followed up a 4-0 home loss to the Red Stars with a 1-5 capitulation vs. the North Carolina Courage on the road. This resulted in a rather frank assessment from Jess McDonald in which she basically identified the problem as a lack of identify and the players not believing in themselves. There are some other, unspoken items that Jess will not discuss. I asked off the record and Paul Miles of 840 WHAS gave it a shot after Racing's last match on October 1st, but Jess seems steadfast in remaining tight lipped about the other things that might have contributed to the drop in performance. Coach Björkegren has mentioned the first-year players not being used to the grueling NWSL schedule when compared to the NCAA schedule or the relentlessly high level of competition in the NWSL as being reasons for the midseason drop in form. I think it's just as likely that the front office's handling of the roster during the season killed the ability to rotate effective players into the lineup especially during the international break for the Euros and CONCACAF. It could be something else, too. Regardless, it culminated in 2 back-to-back losses that for a brief period looked like it may have sent the rest of the season into a tailspin.

Thank goodness for the league's long-standing punching bag: the Orlando Pride. Racing played a bizarre match at Dayton International Speedway (doesn't "International" imply that the track transverses the border across more than one sovereign nation?) earlier in the year in which they led 2-0 but ultimately drew 2-2 and featured a definitively not-top-choice back four of Milliet-Lester-Bonner-Martin. At full strength, Racing rather easily cruised to victory on September 16th. I think relief was the overarching emotion, but it did seem to instill the team with some confidence. It also started Racing's late-season persona as a spoiler (the victory over the Pride either virtually or actually eliminated Orlando from playoff contention, but any NWSL fan will tell you that they were never a serious threat.)

One inevitable step back, then two steps forward

Racing then made a 2-match west coast trip to play the much more intimidating Portland Thorns and the now unmasked-Scooby-Doo-villain-styled frauds of Angel City. Racing has never beaten or the Thorns and only ever scored once. The 3-0 loss to the Thorns was predictable, but a very good defensive first 45 gave Racing fans a little hope that was quickly erased by allowing 3 goals in the next 11 minutes, capped off by a goal from a high-school-aged teenager (the very, very talented Olivia Moultrie). Racing was never likely to win that match, so I don't believe they were too devastated. That was on display in their next two matches.

This year's vintage of Racing didn't have two sweeter victories than the last two matches of the season. Their victory in LA greatly reduced Angel City's ability to make the playoffs and took away their ability to control their own destiny. The last-minute victory vs. KC moved them from hosting a home playoff match to going on the road vs. Houston. The former was notable in that it was Racing's first ever come from behind win on the road. I don't think I would label the Banc of California crowd as "hostile", but I would say that they were rather enthusiastic, especially after Angel City scored one of the luckiest and ugliest goals you will ever see in the 14th minute. Racing equalized on Davis's fine strike in the 37th minute (made and assisted by Jaelin Howell) and were leading at half due to Alex Chidiac's converted penalty. In the second half, Racing probably did its best job of the year in defending a lead. They conceded some possession, but it definitely wasn't one-sided. In the waning moments they got the third goal on a fine finish from Emia Ekic (assisted by Emily Fox). I don't know if there is a consensus about which is more fun for an athlete, silencing a road crowd or sending a home crowd into pure hysteria. Luckily Racing players experienced both as Jessica McDonald stole 2 points for Racing late into stoppage time against the Kansas City Current at home. One thing is for sure: McDonald absolutely relished her goal.

What's next for Racing?

To me, the big offseason question is: Who will be on the Matchday 1 squad? For all of the feel-good vibes around winning 3 out of the last 4 matches, all that it really did from a roster building perspective is make Racing's draft position worse. There is really good talent available at the fourth pick (see Sav DeMelo), but if there is one position that is most valuable in the NWSL especially when you don't have it, it is a high-quality center back. I don't think it is any secret that Racing would like to take Emily Madril at 4. The question is: Will she be available? The league already holds her rights, which does two things. It allows her to play overseas until she is drafted and retain her eligibility, but then she must go to the team that drafts her. Previously, drafted players like Mia Fishel could opt out to join another league, which in Fishel's case was Liga MX Femenil via the Tigres UANL. Fishel was drafted by Orlando and never played there. For Racing and Madril a union would make sense in that she is already familiar with the club through its USL W League team and through practicing with the first team during the summer. Plus, I think she would walk into the Starting XI. However, there isn't a definitive draft projection source for the NWSL, so information is hard to find at least until the NCAA season is over. Even then, it is not exactly clear who the best players are. Either way, I am of the opinion that Racing will look defense with its first pick. After the first round, the chances of finding an impact player have fallen significantly since the league expanded last year. It may be a one-year blip, but Racing got only 1 player after the first round that is still on the roster and she played zero league minutes (back-up keeper Jordyn Bloomer). For the first time there will be NWSL free agency, but I don't think signing NWSL free agents fits into Racing's philosophy.

Therefore, I think Racing will once again try to find international players or work out a transfer if there is a current NWSL player that they want. The biggest bet for Racing is that their younger players will improve. DeMelo, Howell, and Fox will be the key core, but they will need improved production from Ekic and Davis, a healthy Thembi Kgatlana or Nadia Nadim (neither a guarantee), a maintained or better level performance from Wang Shuang, and at least two more NWSL-level defenders. Gemma Bonner has a player option, but also a partner and potentially a nice broadcasting career waiting for her in England. Satara Murray is a nice player but is probably a borderline starter. Rebecca Holloway seemed to win and lose a starting job in the matter of two matches. Julia Lester is best suited at outside back. Nealy Martin was rarely used after being a key contributor in year one. Zaneta Wyne was signed as a national team replacement player and has played sparingly since she signed. The fact of the matter is that this roster is probably 10th or 11th best roster on paper in the NWSL, so 9th place is an over achievement.

The good news is that there will be no enforced roster turnover this offseason, so Racing will not lose a player like Kaleigh Riehl. I don't know how much difference she would have made, but her absence was definitely felt. Racing lost a player in what turned out to be its thinnest position. I know that Racing did not want to lose her, and I heard that attempts were made to try to bring her back. She is 25 and started 17 matches for the Wave, and will likely be a starter in their upcoming playoff match. I imagine that she is settled in San Diego, but if there is one player I would like back, it is her.

The offseason will definitely set the tone for next year. Racing couldn't get Björkegren in soon enough to shape the roster in the preseason, so he did that in the summer transfer window. This year I expect and hope for way less turnover. With a couple of more pieces, Racing could make a playoff push in year 3.

I am probably less rosy than I was then on the prospects for Louisville in 2023, especially as the roster sits today on January 9, 2023.

The next piece was going to be a bit more like a performance report/report card. After reading the Yates Report I couldn’t stomach doing this anymore. Give a little time and space, I think the points are still valid on the sections that I completed, so I will present them as written as of October 2, 2023.

Post Season Report Card

The idea of doing a post season report card for this year’s Racing Louisville squad seems like a daunting task. I could go with your standard A-F or A-U scale, but that seems awful harsh and tends to get people too focused on the letter grade and not the commentary. In lieu of that scale, I think a more of a performance rating approach is indicated. Let’s break down the categories like this:

Unacceptable - Glaring issues that will require change
Disappointing - Needs (but is capable of) improvement
As expected - Met expectations in all areas
Outstanding - Had exceptional performance in at least one area

The other difficult part is to determine who to evaluate, so I will use this framework. I will evaluate the front office as a whole, the coaching staff as a whole, and every player that had an appearance for Racing separately. Since I am avoiding the “report card” format, I can use my own expectations to evaluate vs. grading on a scale that skews toward rewarding the best players for simply being the best. In essence, I wouldn’t evaluate Jess McDonald under the same criteria as Parker Goins. The nuance here is that for players who left Racing, I will only evaluate them on their appearances for Racing. Obviously, any Dash fan would presumably rate Ebony Salmon as an “Outstanding” for her performance in Houston, but her brief time at Racing was squarely in the “Disappointing” category whether that was entirely in her control or not.

Unacceptable

The Front Office: I had this section completely written when the NWSL Report into player abuse was released on Monday. I think all of the points are still valid, so I am going to leave it below as written. I will put it in italics as to differentiate between my frame of mind on Sunday October 2nd vs. Monday October 3rd. Now based on the report released on Monday, I think it highlights the tone-deafness that this front office has in regard to its ability to respond appropriately to player concerns. None of the things in the report point to anything from this season as far as I can tell, but the club hid behind the legal issue of non-disclosure to cowardly avoid the ultimate moral responsibility to identify a predator and make him known.

Almost every move that the team executed made sense in and of itself. Collectively they were puzzling at best and negligent at worst. I stand by my evaluation that the club basically forfeited the middle of the season due to the volatility in the roster during the summer transfer window. If there was a plan, it wasn’t executed in a way that made sense to me or many other fans. The Racing front office needs more women’s soccer expertise. If they enter year 3 without a major addition it will be very bad in my opinion. I don’t know or believe a single person in the front office to be doing a poor job. It’s just incomplete in NWSL knowledge. Until that fact is recognized, I don’t know if circumstances will greatly improve. There are nuances to this league that you almost have to live through to understand. Racing has lived through 2 years of this now, but I still don’t think that is enough to bridge the knowledge gap. Maybe I am wrong, but regardless of the intrinsic advantages that the two California expansion teams had, they had people with NWSL experience in vital positions. Their first year sucess is surely due to this in part. The club needs to get over whatever ill feelings they still might have around the expansion draft if it is ever to move forward. I hope I never hear anyone bring that up again.

Disappointing

The Coaching Staff: At point in time this season, their rating likely vacillated between Unacceptable and As Expected, but I settled on an overall Rating of Disappointing, but closer to As Expected. Based on just about every measure, this season was an improvement on the pitch. However, I think Coach Björkegren might have slightly underestimated his ability to make a transformational impact. This year’s team is definitely coached better but is still prone to committing the same errors. At times Björkegren has shown flexibility and adaptability, but I think it took him too long to find the right group of players to play together. I don’t think that it’s an accident that Racing won its last two matches while using a back four comprised of 4 defenders vs. 3 and a midfielder. Milliet has still played in every single match but made her 50th NWSL start in the last match and that probably is a microcosm of the selection issues. Björkegren didn’t trust all of his defenders but made the most changes to that part of the roster during his tenure, so you have to feel like he had input on the acquisitions of Lester, Holloway, Murray and Wyne. Sh’Nia Gordon was likely signed based on his recommendation and made next to no impact and is now gone. His most recent gameday squads had 3 keepers on the bench, simply because there is room as the number of available outfield substitutes is so small. I believe his biggest flaw this season is believing that he can find effective players in other leagues and immediately move them into the lineup. He is surely looking for players who want to play in his style but has sacrificed talent to do so (Salmon). Many other fans hate that he doesn’t substitute much, but to me that is indicative of the lack of depth on the bench. Publicly he had stated that he doesn’t make changes just to make them and hesitates to make subs if the team is playing well. I personally believe he is protected the rest of the squad a bit by not stating the reality: the back end of the squad isn’t good enough. Unfortunately for him, he also partially responsible for who is on the roster and mostly responsible for the club keeping a small roster.

However, as Jess McDonald stated in her post match interview after the last match, the coaches learned as the year went along as well as the players. Björkegren doesn’t strike me as over stubborn. I think he will use the offseason to look to make changes to the roster that are needed but will have also learned his lesson to only use the summer transfer window as way to get transformational talent and not to tweak the roster. If you look at the last 4 matches, I think you could bump up his rating to “As Expected”. Winning 3 out of 4 matches against teams that absolutely had something to play for is nothing to sneeze at. As recently as September 10th, this team looked like it could be in danger of phoning in the rest of the season. It is a credit to him that the players fought hard to win these matches. If the players wanted him gone, they could have easily folded and cost him his job. The did the opposite and surely secured his job for at least the start of a second season. The jury is still out on whether he will work out, but that is better that already being found guilty of not being the right coach.

I had made it to the point in writing this article where I rated two players as disappointing, but I have chosen to redact the commentary for those players.

Even if no one bothers to read this, I wanted to publish these pieces as to close the book on the 2022 season in my head, and to clear the slate for next season.

Michael Shaw 1/5/23 Michael Shaw 1/5/23

Who will score for Louisville in 2023?

Louisville scored 22 goals (plus one own goal) in the 2022 season. If the team is going to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, they will have to maintain at least a neutral goal differential. Based on the last few seasons, there has been at least one team that has made the playoff with a zero goal differential. As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t expect much immediate improvement on the defensive end of things, so based on last season’s performance, Louisville probably needs to score goals in the 35 to 40 range. To keep things semi-realistic, I will use the bottom end of that range to set goal targets for players on the current roster. I don’t expect the team to draft a real goal-scoring threat at number 4, due to the need for interior defense, but the club also needs goals so it wouldn’t be a total shock to draft another forward at 4. Past the first round, I don’t see many players making a first-year contribution. I will start with the players that will need to contribute the most goals and work my way to those who should be looking to chip in a goal or two.

Kirsten Davis (5-7 goals)

Kirsten was recently married, and the official team twitter account hinted at a name change to “Kirsten Wright”, but for now I will still refer to as Davis as that is how she is officially listed on the club roster. With all of the mounting injuries at forward including the recent announcement on Ekic’s injury, Davis will almost certainly start to begin Louisville's season. Jess McDonald has mentioned several times that she likes playing with Davis up front, so will be looking to supply her heavily during the early part of the season. Kirsten scored 2 goals in 18 appearances last year, so this would be quite a significant step up in production. However, the club really needs to find a reliable goal scorer early in the season so expect Davis to get plenty of opportunities and service from her teammates.

Jess McDonald (3-5 goals)

Jess’s unselfishness may work against he in the early part of the season if Davis isn’t immediately able to start scoring consistently. McDonald looked to pass before shooting several times during matches last year but may just have to be a little greedier this year, especially early in the season. If she can keep her overall goal contributions (goals and assists) in the 8-10 range, it will matter less if those 8-10 are goals vs. assists.

Nadia Nadim (3-5 goals)

When Nadia is healthy, she scores. However, recovering from a second knee injury in two years may again limit her appearances for Racing. Last season, there was a bit more transparency into a timetable for her return. I don’t recall seeing any speculation on when she might return in 2023 or if she will return. My money is on a late season return and a return to her scoring form. Let’s just hope it’s not a case of too little, too late.

Thembi Kgatlana (2-4 goals)

There is no real timetable yet for Kgatlana’s return either. One has to assume that since her injury occurred prior to Nadim’s that she would return to competitive action sooner, but that surely isn't guaranteed. However, she was brought in to score goals, so we will just have to assume that is what she will do. I think she is skilled enough to score more but factoring in the limits of returning from an injury and getting readjusted to the NWSL, I think 3 goals is the target.

Emina Ekic (2-4 goals)

Ekic found some real goal-scoring form in Australia, so her injury is a real shame. When she returns to action, I think we can all agree that this needs to be her breakout year. Looking on the bright side, Ekic will probably be reintegrated into the team as a sub when she returns from injury. I like her as a game changing substitute, so this may give her the opportunity to pick right back up where she left off in Australia. Look for her to push for a starting role as her fitness increases.

Sav DeMelo (2-4 goals)

DeMelo scored 4 goals last season and if she can improve on that total, the goal scoring burden on her teammates may lessen and subsequently Louisville may find themselves in better position in the table. However, it seems unfair to demand 4 goals from her every season. She will likely take her fair share of free kicks again, but Wang may also find herself in the mix on those. This may be the first time I have ever written this next sentence, but it surely won’t be the last. This team goes as far as Sav DeMelo goes.

Parker Goins (1-3 goals)

I am still really high on Parker Goins. I think she has the ability to score goals and change games. Through injuries, she may get her chance early this season, especially in a 4-3-3 formation. We have seen that Coach Björkegren will have Lauren Milliet on the pitch somewhere, so Parker will have to show in the preseason that she is ready to force the team into a formation that pushes Milliet into the midfield or (lord help us) defense. I have a feeling that if and when the first goal goes in for Parker, the floodgates could open. Alternatively, if she struggles for minutes again someone else unexpected will have to step up and score more goals than anticipated.

Wang Shuang (1-3 goals)

I thought Wang was impressive in her brief spell with the team last year. She didn’t score in the league, but scored in the Women’s Cup, so we know that she has goal in her. I don’t think a free kick goal is beyond her either. Her goal contributions and attacking influence might show themselves more through build-up play, so I think she will be involved in way more goals than she is ultimately credited. A preseason in Louisville will do her loads of good.

Alex Chidiac (1-3 goals)

I feel like Alex’s opportunities to score will come from pieces of individual brilliance, which she has shown from time to time. She has two goals and an assist in six appearances in the A-League, so maybe she can bring that form back with her to Louisville. I think she would be delighted with 3 goals, but the NWSL defensives are a little sturdier that what she is experiencing again in the A-League, so one or two goals is more likely.

Emily Fox (1-3 goals)

Fox has it in her arsenal to be a high-scoring defender, but that part of her game hasn’t been in full display for Louisville yet. I think year 3 for her could be the one where we see her full abilities on display, but I will be a little conservative and say that one more than last year will be her contribution on the goals side. I am concerned that she will once again have her hands full with defensive duties, so even two goals may be a stretch if the defense is worse than last year, which frankly is entirely within the realm of possibility.

Ary Borges (0-2 goals)

My prediction for Borges is a complete shot in the dark. I don’t really know how the team will deploy her. I have seen comments that she may sit deep with Howell. That could open DeMelo up to attack more, but your midfielders should be looking to find themselves in scoring positions from time to time regardless of how deep they are sitting. It’s really hard to be very sure of how she might contribute until I see her in at least a practice setting.

Lauren Milliet (0-2 goals)

Lauren will surely be on the pitch somewhere, but whether that is in a position with more attacking duties than defensive ones is a big question mark. My opinion is that she belongs in midfield, but necessity might dictate that she finds herself on the wing in a defensive role again. Either way, she isn’t a pure scorer so a goal or two would be a fine contribution.

Jae Howell (0-2 goals)

Howell definitely looked better as the season progressed, but in my opinion that was in line with her fully embracing her defensive responsibilities. She is still good for a shot from distance and will be a threat on corners. It’s not beyond imagination to see her with 4 to 5 goals, but 1 or 2 seems like the right expectation.

Elli Pikkujämsä (0-2 goals)

This could just as easily be “central defender” goals, but Pikkujämsä seems slightly more likely to score based on her previous record. Murray or a yet-to-be-signed-or-drafted defender might find herself in the right position to score a goal, but these aren’t goals that the team should be counting on.

Summary

If everyone hits the midpoint of my targets, that will put the team at 35 goals. This being the NWSL, the odd own goal may help out here or there to make it 36 or 37 goals. This team will surely need that many goals to compete in 2023.

Michael Shaw 1/4/23 Michael Shaw 1/4/23

Who fills the Gemma Bonner-sized hole in Louisville?

Now that the 2023 NSWL draft is fast approaching, it's time to look at the biggest needs for this year's Louisville team. I think it will surprise nobody that follows this club that the holes are many, but the hole left by Gemma presents a unique challenge. Louisville's defense was pretty porous last year gving up an average of 1.6 goals/match. As the roster stands today, central defense is a major concern. While Bonner was not a top tier NWSL central defender, she was really solid and if the season started today, I would have to say that the option of Murray and a virtually untested Pikkujämsä doesn’t give me warm and fuzzies. Here are some options:

Emily Madril (<5% chance)

At some point in the season in 2022, the club had to feel good about the prospects of getting Emily Madril as Bonner's replacement. She was regularly practicing with Louisville's first team sqaud and looked impressive for the W League team. The rumor was that she wanted to sign for Louisville, but she ended up signing a league contract instead which allowed her to go out on loan until the 2023 draft. I subtlety hinted last year that I would rather the team finish lower in the table in order to help their chances as getting Madril. I will now state with perfect 20/20 hindsight that I wish the team would have taken draws in the last two matches to get the #2 draft pick. Don't get me wrong. I loved the team winning those last two matches, but all of the joy was taken away by the Yates report. As we ended up only being able to celebrate the KC victory for a few days, I would rather be looking at the number 2 pick vs. the 4th. It's probably moot anyway as no amount of losing was ever going to put 12th place in play as Gotham were an absolute disaster. I fully expect Madrid to go #1, in part because she lost all of her negotiating power by signing a league contract. Guaranteeing that a player will sign seems like a pretty big incentive to me.

Draft pick TBD (50/50)

Reyna Reyes is a possibility at 4. Here is the text from the linked article.

“Anchoring Alabama’s backline to 12 shutouts this year, MAC Hermann Trophy semifinalist and SEC Defender of the Year Reyes is coming off her best season with the Crimson Tide.

As Alabama notched a program-record 23 wins, Reyes scored a career-high eight goals, including Alabama’s game-winning goal against Duke in the quarterfinals of the women’s College Cup.”

Jordan Brewster from West Virginia and Tori Hansen seem like options too. None of them are a can't-miss like Girma or a probably-can't-miss like Madril. The NWSL requires elite talent or years of experience to effectively navigate it, so while this may be the most viable option, it's probably not optimal.

New Signing TBD (10-15% chance)

I (very deliberately) have little to no insight into the inner workings of Soccer Holdings, especially since the Yates report has been released, so I am likely to be wildly off base for all of this, but I especially have no insight into how the club identifies player and convinces them to come to Louisville. We as a public were told on several occasions that Jess McDonald wanted to be in Louisville. I have no reason to not believe that. However, I am unaware of any player that is too keen on coming to Louisville. They very well may exist, but if playing time and starting right away is a draw, I think the team could tempt another international player to come over and try their luck in America. Kaleigh Riehl would be at the top of my want list, but San Diego doesn't seem interested in seeing her go as she showed herself to be of great value last year. Some current NWSL player may be available through trade. I think another international is more likely.

Elli Pikkujämsä (30% chance)

Nothing against the young Finnish international, but very few European players are NWSL ready on day 1. Gemma wasn't, but she was close. Pikkujämsä isn't Bonner, so if this is the solution, expect severe growing pains. She may turn out to be great, but I wouldn't call her a sure thing.

Gemma's other duties

While there may have been 4 nominal captains on the team last season, Bonner was essentially Captain #1. She often drew the short straw to represent the team in post match media duties as well. My guess is that McDonald will pick up more of a leadership role during the matches, as she is definitely more vocal than Fox and Nadim will be missing the start of the season again. It is within the realm of real possibility, that the next captain isn't one of the 3 remaining captains. Again, based on nothing but pure speculation, I don't think any of the 3 remaining captains are in for the Louisville project for the long haul. Jess has to be reaching the back end of her career. Nadia has had her second knee surgery in a year and has never played 50 matches at a single club. Fox, while essentially unable to go anywhere via free agency for awhile, could play overseas or force a trade given her profile. Louisville could look to Howell, DeMelo, or Milliet to fill the leadership void left by Bonner.

The answer to the question proposed in the title of this piece is unfortunately “probably nobody, at least right away.”

Michael Shaw 12/28/22 Michael Shaw 12/28/22

A-League Loan Watch

Louisville has 5 players on loan in the A-League and they are definitely enjoying themselves in the Australian weather more than you and I are enjoying this terrible winter (unless you are some sort of psychopath who enjoys subzero wind chills). Let take a look at how they are doing so far this A-League season.

Jordyn Bloomer

Jordyn is enduring a very Louisville-like experience in Sydney as her club, the Western Sydney Wanderers are 10th out of 11th in the A-League table while sitting on zero points and a negative seven goal differential. What Bloomer is getting is the experience of stopping shots. She has saved 23 shots out of 32 with two of those shots being converted penalties. She has started all five matches but was pulled at halftime in the most recent match vs. rival Sydney FC. I didn’t see any report of an injury, so this may be something to watch. If she doesn’t get her starting job back look for her to be recalled to Louisville sooner vs. later.

Hillary Beall

Hillary is enjoying a much better experience in terms of her team’s performance with Western United FC. Her club currently sits 3rd in the table with a flawless record of 12 points from 4 matches. Beall has started all 4 matches and kept a clean sheet in her professional debut. In each of the next 3 matches she gave up a single goal. She was the captain of the team in all four matches. In contrast to Bloomer, Beall has only had to make 7 saves on 11 shots. Beall and teammate Jess McDonald as in action at 1 AM tomorrow/tonight vs. Newcastle.

Jessica McDonald

Speaking of Jess, she is enjoying a typical Jess-like season with 2 goals in 4 matches. Of some interest, former Louisville draft pick Sydney Cummings has the same goal tally for the club. While Beall, Bloomer and Ekic are on loan to get experience, one has to assume McDonald is in Australia to earn a little extra money and presumably avoid this terrible Kentucky winter. Good on her for the hustle, but shame on us for the environment that dictates that professional women’s soccer players do not get paid enough to enjoy a true off-season. I don’t personally know Jess’s motivation, so perhaps it’s unfair to assume that she would enjoy a few months off lounging on a beach, but I know I would.

Alex Chidiac

Penguin enthusiast and mascot devotee, Alex Chidiac is having another nice season in the A-League with the Melbourne Victory. Her club sits midtable at 6th currently, but has enjoyed an improved run in form, winning their last three matches. Alex has a goal and 2 assists in her stint back in Melbourne. Albeit a small sample, she is experiencing her best production of her career with .6 goal contributions/90 minutes based on a career average of .34/90 minutes. Of special note, her goal was an Olimpico.

Emina Ekic

On the good news/bad news front, Emina was having a fantastic season with Melbourne City FC. Her club sits at the tops of the table with 15 points from 6 matches. Emina has made 5 starts and appeared in all six matches. She scored 4 times and has an assist for a 1.03 goal contribution/90 minutes average. She converted the decisive penalty in Melbourne City’s 1-0 victory over Perth Glory, but sustained a worrying ankle injury in the process. The injury was non-contact and painful enough to elicit “a bit of a scream” from Emina and she was on crutches after the match. We all wish Emina a speedy recovery. The club hopes to know more in a day or so. If it is more on the serious side, expect her to return to Louisville for treatment.

Michael Shaw 12/23/22 Michael Shaw 12/23/22

Louisville Announces the Signing of Ary Borges

Louisville’s latest signing has been done and dusted for quite a while, but today the club officially announced the signing of Brazilian attacking midfielder Ary Borges. She has 22 caps for Brazil and has scored four goals. She had a really good goal return average for a midfielder with 18 goals in 32 appearances for Palmeiras last season. The roster tracker has been updated to reflect her official signing.

Michael Shaw 12/9/22 Michael Shaw 12/9/22

Elli Pikkujämsä signs for Louisville

Louisville started to rebuild its defense with the signing of Elli Pikkujämsä. Elli is a regular starter for the Finnish National team and is a versatile defender who can play at both left back and defensive midfield but will likely be used in Louisville’s central defense. She is also a goal scoring threat having scored 6 goals in 27 appearances for her former club team KIF Örebro in 2022. The official press release touted her abilities as an overall athlete as she was a “high-level snowboarder” at the youth level. The roster tracker has been updated and will be further updated once her number is assigned.

Michael Shaw 11/3/22 Michael Shaw 11/3/22

Checking in a month after the Yates Report

It’s been a month since Sally Yates’ report on abusive behavior and sexual misconduct in women’s professional soccer has been released. Soccer Holdings LLC leadership remains unchanged during this time. It is a natural human tendency to become less and less outraged as time passes. Am I as outraged as I was just one month ago? I would say that intellectually I am, but emotionally…the fire doesn’t burn as hot as it initially did. I don’t know if that is necessarily a bad thing. I want to be clear that my position has not changed. Until there is leadership change at the very top of Soccer Holdings LLC day-to-day operations, I believe there is still a risk of similar bad behavior. I think about it like a tornado watch: no tornado has been sighted, but the conditions exist where a tornado can develop. I still hold on to the hope that there will be more change to the club structure (I am not sure that a GM for the women’s team that is likely to still report to James O’Connor is enough meaningful change). Responses from sponsors have slowed to a halt. There is some encouraging news about preventing non-disclosure agreements in the future, but that still has to pass, and enforcement would likely be difficult. If any more meaningful change is likely to occur, the catalyst would likely need to be 1) additional information coming out in the joint NWSL/NWSLPA investigation and/or 2) at least one current player calling for the resignation of the team president. I feel like a combination of the two instances is the most likely way to get meaningful change and I also feel like that #2 will not happen until #1 occurs. For me, the players will dictate the ultimate response from the club. In the meantime, I have been thinking about how to continue my coverage.

Natually the NWSL offseason is not a busy time for me in terms of updating the site, but I have definitely not posted as much as I would have if the Yates Report had not come out. However, at some point there is going to start to be news for the upcoming season and I have to decide how I want to handle things going forward. Here is where I stand as of today (11/3/2022 and obviously subject to change):

I have repeated said that this site exists in part to monitor the soccer-related behavior of the owners of Louisville’s professional soccer teams. As such, as long as I am able this site will exist to call them out when needed.
At some point after the release of the Yates Report, I removed all non-historical references to the non-civic part of the name of Louisville’s top-tier professional soccer team. Going forward, I will only refer to the team as “Louisville” on this site. The importance of this will be explained in the next bullet point. Civic pride is what drew me to this club, and it is also one of the reasons I started this site. At some point, if enough changes are made at the club for me to be personally satisfied, I may decide to revert to the previous shorthand of using the nickname part of the team. Since I very rarely talk about the men’s team, I don’t see this being much of an issue. If the need arises, I will clarify which team to which I am referring. If you run into me in public, I will still likely use the nickname to refer to the club for clarity’s sake.
From my current perspective, the most critical relationship for the team is between the players and the fans, but especially the fans who are able to attend the matches. There are likely many fans now that are able to attend matches but will chose not to. I respect and fully understand that decision. On the other hand, I still plan to attend every match that I can and to support the players in person. I will likely do this while not wearing any team licensed merchandise. I will be there as a Louisvillian to support the women who are representing the city of Louisville. The nickname is tarnished due to the arrogance and ineptitude of certain people involved with the club, but they don’t own the rights to the name “Louisville” in and of itself.
The majority of my writing on this site is related to play on the field. That will not change. I still intend to do player ratings in the same manner as I have always done. I toyed with the idea of doing a disclaimer stating something like “performances are always subject to external pressures that we as fan may not be aware”, but frankly any reasonable person knows this.
I am undecided on my stance as to whether I will accept a media credential next season, and I am unsure if one is even forthcoming. This would limit my ability to attend practiced or post-match press conferences, but that isn’t necessarily a negative thing either. When you have a press credential, you get more information than a normal fan in some situations, but much of that information is curated by the club. If I do decide to be a member of credentialed media next year, I will likely skew my coverage to more observational items which is something I tended towards in the latter parts of the season last year.

I have a few final thoughts for now. I have made many new friends since starting this site. Each one of them will be dealing with their fandom in their own time and manner. Unless things change dramatically, I think that the current landscape for fan-driven content will be pretty bleak. I can’t imagine the current environment generating much enthusiasm for fan-based coverage, although outrage sometimes generates fresh content and creators. The preeminent piece of fan-created content in my opinion was the Butchertown Rundown Podcast. According to Tom and Bekki, its return in its current format is impossible (Tom has shared with me that he can’t continue, even if I hold out hope that he might change his mind one day) and its return in any format is not possible with JOC still employed at the club. As for Bekki, her coverage and abilities have moved well beyond the level of fan-driven content as she has spent the last 2 years cultivating her craft to a point where her coverage could easily move to a national focus. If she wants to continue to write about soccer, there is no real reason to limit her scope to a single team. However, Bekki told me that the scandals have cooled her interest in writing about soccer. I will leave the last word to her, “I think it’s worth noting that when coverage for the sport is dependent on dedicated fans, scandals are even more deeply harmful than they would be in other more established sports.”

Michael Shaw 10/27/22 Michael Shaw 10/27/22

How good was Katie Lund in 2022?

When it comes to soccer, there are those who are in the “Keeper’s Union” and those who are not. I am unapologetically in the “not” category. I think most attacking players and probably almost every true striker will tell you that if they have done their job and hit the ball precisely as they meant to hit it, they don’t believe it matters one iota who is playing in goal. Nonetheless, Kailen Sheridan won NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year earlier this week and probably deservedly so. Players on good teams win individual awards. Those awards are frankly quite meaningless and just about every player in every sport would trade in an individual honor for the top team honor. Sometimes, like last season, you get to have your cake and eat it too like Aubrey Kingsbury, Ashley Hatch, and Trinity Rodman.

I personally only think it matters it you have a bad keeper. There is so little variation in some goalkeeping statistics, that as long as you aren’t a liability, you are probably good enough at the level to which you have achieved. However, it was interesting to look at the season stats for goalkeepers from American Soccer Analysis. Here is a look:

Each line represents a player. One player leads the league in 3 categories. The performances in those 3 categories have 3 out of the 4 best top end performances (as measured by the number of standard deviations from the mean) in the league this year. The other top performance (in passing) was led by Kaelin Sheridan. One guess as who the other player is. If goalkeepers are important, then their contributions have to measured in numbers. When you do that, it’s frankly no argument that Katie Lund was the best statistical keeper this year. Part of that is likely due to opportunities to stop shots, but her performance was still criminally overlooked.

Michael Shaw 10/4/22 Michael Shaw 10/4/22

Racing Louisville: 2022 Fourth Quarter Review

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator: Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.
Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator: Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.
Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator: Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.
Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator: Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator. Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator

Michael Shaw 10/3/22 Michael Shaw 10/3/22

Zero Accountability

I am almost 100% positive I’ve said this before, but part of the purpose of this blog is to hold the club accountable when they do things wrong. This is wrong. When I started this blog, I did so without a media credential and will continue to write if this gets mine revoked.

James O’Connor has to be removed from his position. It is a non-negotiable for Racing fans who care about the players they support. I understand that the complexities of a non-disclosure agreement prevent people from doing the legal thing sometimes. NOTHING should ever prevent anyone from doing the moral thing. In this case I believe the moral thing to do was to shout from the mountain top “Christy Holly is a sexual predator!” By not doing so, the club abdicated its duties to its players and fans. What was put in place to prevent him from doing this again, especially at a level with even less oversight or scrutiny than the NWSL. Ultimately, I think the club will do the right thing, but you are going to have to help force them to do so.

#JOCOUT

Michael Shaw 10/2/22 Michael Shaw 10/2/22

Racing 1 Current 0 Post Match Thoughts

They are perhaps no more thrilling ways to win a soccer match than to win it in the last minute of stoppage time. At face value this win only managed worsen Racing's draft position to 4th, but everyone in the organization surely believes that this is something to build on.

Racing put on its most organized defensive performance of the year. I don’t think this back four of Fox, Murray, Bonner, and Lester will be the first choice back 4 next year, but on the night, they played really well as a unit. This was greatly aided by Jaelin Howell’s performance in front of them as well. On the stat sheet this was a really even match, and in those types of matches this year Racing tended to either lose or draw them. I had 0-0 as a likely score line in my head, pretty much the entire match. However, this was a performance from a team that has maybe finally learned how to play well enough on the defensive end to keep themselves in every match they play. In my opinion, 1-0 is the sweetest score in soccer in that it requires fight the entire match, regardless of whether the goal was scored in the first minute or after the 90th.
The milestones I mentioned in my preview were reached. Milliet made her 50th NWSL start for Racing and Fox made her 50th appearance. Fox seemed surprised by the fact that she had reached 50 appearances when I mentioned it to her post match. I am almost certain that players don’t track or worry about such milestones, so they can be easily overlooked unless someone points them out.

Remember that I am a fan first and foremost and only have media credentials through the generosity of the club, so making these and getting them signed was a highlight for my wife and me.

The team performed the traditional lap of appreciation around the stadium, which I am 100% positive was made more fun by the late goal.

For some of these players it was probably the last chance to walk around Lynn Family Stadium as a member of the Racing squad, so I hope they appreciated it and took it in. Now, I am going to present a couple of observations for you to make you own judgement. I witnessed Michele Betos, Yuki Nagasato, Sav McCaskill, Sinclaire Miramontez, Julia Ashley, Jorian Baucom, and Addyson Merrick all make an effort to talk to Racing fans, staff and players after their return to Lynn Family Stadium (I was not in attendance for Kaliegh Riehl’s return, but I am sure she did the same). Cece Kizer spent all of her post match time in KC’s half before making a beeline to the visitor’s locker room. If she has any appreciation for her time in Louisville, it wasn’t on display last night. The other thing I didn’t see was any of her old teammates reaching out to her. Maybe I missed it, which is entirely possible. If anyone else witnessed anything different I will be happy to eat crow. UPDATED: She did talk to Jess and friends and family and signed autographs for multiple fans so my apologies.

Racing bettered its performance in the table last year in points, goal difference and places from the bottom. Chicago and Angel City still have a match to play, so at least one team and possibly two will miss the playoffs with 30 points. Accumulating half of the points available at 33 will be the magic number for playoff qualification if Chicago wins. It will be 32 if they don’t. In retrospect, an additional 9-10 points from Racing seems a little too much to have asked for this year. Racing probably felt like they were on the “unfair” side of the scoreline a few times, but the win last night and at Gotham surely evened those out. Racing seems ready to make a playoff push next year and Jess McDonald said as much after the match, but it will require regression from at least 3 teams ahead of them and also require that Washington doesn't immediately rebound which seems entirely possible. If they do, that number becomes 4. Racing will need to add quality and depth in the off-season, something Coach Björkegren pretty much confirmed in his post match interview last night.
I will likely post a post season review on here this week, but will definitely have something published on the State of Louisville website, so watch out for that. I will be completely honest. This season was fun to write about, but I enjoyed last year's team slightly more. There is no real reason behind this other than last year's team was the first. I think this year's team was much better, so I am hoping that next year will be even more fun to cover. The team seems to be moving in a better direction, but I will stop short of calling it the “right direction” just yet.

Michael Shaw 10/1/22 Michael Shaw 10/1/22

Racing 1 Current 0 Player Ratings

Racing won their final match of the season through Jess McDonald's stoppage time goal. The match felt like it could end in a 0-0 draw pretty much the entire time, so this truly feels likes points stolen “at the death”

Lund-8: Katie now solely owns the NWSL save record. On the night her shot stopping was excellent, as was her decision making.

Fox-8: Absolutely superb in her 50th NWSL appearance. Looked as good as she has all year.

Bonner-8: Never seemed to put a foot wrong on the evening.

Murray-8: Was supremely confident on the night winning possession for Racing with her aggressiveness and commitment.

Lester-8: Julia was particularly accurate in her passing with only 4 misplaced passes and 30 successful ones.

Howell-8: Looked a completely different player from her debut at the beginning of the season. She should now feel confident enough to enforce her will even more next year. Won a team high 11 duels.

Milliet-7: Lauren made her 50th NWSL start for Racing and put in her usual solid performance.

DeMelo-8: She will likely not win rookie of the year, but may ultimately prove to be the best of the 2022 NWSL draft class. Had the assist on Jess's goal.

Chidiac-6: Was subbed off for Ekic who provided an attacking lift.

Davis-6: Couldn't quite find her groove on the night and will look to be more of a consistent attacking threat next season.

McDonald-8: The goal meant so much for her, the team, and the fans. If Racing are to make a playoff push next season, expect her to make more goal contributions.

Michael Shaw 9/30/22 Michael Shaw 9/30/22

Racing v Current Preview

The last Racing practice of the year definitely had a “last day of school” vibe (credit to Julie Twaddle for calling that out). The players mostly wore long sleeves as it was a nice, sunny early autumn morning. The generally feeling around practice was relaxed. Prior to practice, NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman spent about 30 talking to players and staff. Berman has now visited all 12 cities in the NWSL markets. The media, which today just included Bekki Morgan and I, got to ask her some questions about the things on the top of our minds, but more on that later. The team definitely had the look of a squad that had won a few recent matches and had a couple of days off from training. Racing will be looking to play spoiler again on Saturday as the KC Current can still finish anywhere from 1st to 5th. Due to its proximity and having played 3 times already this year, the Current seem like a semi-natural rival and it’s always good to beat those.

Everything looks on track for Lauren Milliet to make her 50th NWSL start for Racing and for Emily Fox to make her 50th NWSL appearance for Racing on Saturday evening. The weather forecast looks great for Saturday evening too, so there is no excuse not to show up and support Racing one last time this year. I am somewhat torn about how much benefit there is for Racing to finish 9th and get the 4th pick in the upcoming college draft vs. finishing 11th and getting the 2nd pick. I think it will ultimately boil down to who Racing end up selecting at 2,3, or 4. If they get the player they want at 4 then it’s definitely a win. If they miss out and get a different player, that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing either. All we really have to go on is that Fox and Howell were game changers at 2 and DeMelo certainly was at 4. However, Racing need defense and particularly more central defense, so that makes their need to get the right player more important in this draft. I will be happy with a central defender at 2, 3, or 4, but would be happiest to get the best CB available. I asked Coach Björkegren about the importance of momentum being carried over into next season, to which he replied, “I think we can build on this (momentum).” That will require more roster stability and the need to integrate new players in February and not June, but I am optimistic that the core of this team is here (minus maybe one more young central defender).

Jessica Berman was nice enough to answer some questions. I thought she gave mostly encouraging answers on the following topics:

2023 World Cup’s impact to the NWSL schedule: First, the NWSL Schedule has a habit of being released late. To that she said, “It’s been a high priority since I joined in April…We are definitely committed to avoiding (a late schedule release) in the future.” On the World Cup conflicting with the NWSL season: “We are going to do everything we can to minimize those conflicts so that our league can thrive and those players who are going to play for their country are going to be able to perform at the highest level.” The was no specific update on possibly holding the Challenge Cup during the World Cup window, which has been rumored.
On Kits: “We recently hired a new executive at the league office, a new Chief Marketing Officer who spent time this week in Portland with Nike. There were many topics on the agenda: the kits and the uniqueness of that opportunity to create a connection with fans is among the topics being explored with Nike and with their input about how do we partner to use that opportunity for merchandise as well as marketing to drive engagement.” That is a lot of words and not much detail, but it was encouraging to hear that the league saw its relationship with Nike as a way to improve fan engagement around kits and other merchandise. Now if we could just get a Lavender kit for Racing’s home and a pink one for San Diego’s away, I would consider that progress and a better fan connection than the Wave’s tremendously boing year one kits.
On VAR: Not much of an update on specifics, but the league has started the training for “those who will be responsible for executing VAR next season.” Berman shared that ”it’s a very intense and cumbersome project, both at an enterprise level from a strategic perspective, but also tactically with the connectivity to the local stadiums from the broadcast.” Now there is quite a bit of nuance in those statements. I have shared before that the prevailing opinion is that is takes around 30 or so cameras to implement VAR at the level you see in Europe’s top men’s league. I think we can safely assume that each NWSL stadium won’t be getting 30 new cameras. Based on what she shared today, I think fans can expect an improved broadcast experience due to the level of reliable connectivity required for VAR. However, I don’t expect a whole lot of new camera angles to be available to conduct a VAR review. My best guess based on what I heard today is that VAR will be executed from a central office, and it is equally possible that it will be entirely done from a central command center or done with the field officials’ input through a pitch side monitor and communication with the central VAR officials. I don’t expect any non-broadcast cameras to be used, so if a current replay doesn’t clear up matters, neither will this VAR system. I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing. The Premier League seems to be caught in a never-ending controversy around over analyzing close calls. I don’t think the NWSL’s system will be set up to correct anything other than a blatantly obvious incorrect call. That actually would be an improvement over the Premier League’s current system of nitpicking every possible decision. However, that means expect very few to no overturns on things like fouls in the box or fouls on the keepers. If VAR ends up only being used for clearly missed offside decisions and handballs in the box, I will consider that a win. Berman said to expect a more detailed update either late this year or early next year.
On Player Development/Player Pipeline: This is what I will call “The Ella Sanchez question”. I am in the extreme minority when I say that the other three topics were of much greater interest to me. Berman didn’t give much detail at all other that highlighting the hire of Tatiana Haney (who I could find very, very little about, but I will take Jessica’s word for it as a ”former head of Women’s Football for FIFA” who hasn’t worked for FIFA in the last five years) to lead the development of the strategy on the player pipeline and player development. “Part of that will be how academies fit into that model”, according to Berman. Don’t hold your breath for any news there. Feel free to waste your breath asking though, as Berman is scheduled to make an appearance at the Lavender Legion tailgate on Saturday. For me, the simple math is that it is very, very unlikely that Racing’s academy reach is vast enough to bring in and nurture an NWSL level talent very often. The issue will not be solved in time to impact Ella, and I seriously doubt that the next Ella Sanchez is around the corner, but you never know. If you view the academy’s role as a means to bring in talent, I think you may be missing the point. LouCity’s academy seems to be doing a decent job of finding and preparing USL level talent, but the LouCity and Racing academies’ mission is to give youth the chance to learn and play soccer while learning life skills. As a “pipeline”, I’d rather be looking to find the best players available anywhere because the geographic realities of trying to find players from a pool of 1 million people vs 330 million are quite daunting.

Michael Shaw 9/29/22 Michael Shaw 9/29/22

The 2022 Soccer Ball

When the LouCity and Racing Foundation announced their plans for a “Soccer Ball” earlier this year, I had all of these grandiose ideas about covering the event. I would take photos and interview players, etc. In reality, the event was way too much fun to “work” it. As shown above, I did get a pic of Lauren Milliet holding her Players’ Choice award. Nadia Nadim won the Community Leadership award (Brian Ownby and Sean Totsch won those respective awards for LouCity). However, the highlight of the night was really the event itself. The ball moved along at a crisp pace and for a fundraising event, it was on the thankfully short side. Everyone I talked with was pleased with the turnout. I estimated the crowd at just under 1000. The event surely raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for the foundation and I am sure official numbers will come out soon. The real highlights of the night were the speakers. Dr. Scott Goodwin reflected on his time at LouCity and how it helped him achieve his dreams. Carlos Moguel shared his story which represented the work already done by the foundation to remove financial barriers that prevent children from playing soccer at a high level. Finally, George Davis IV shared what the foundation is doing and can still do to impact the lives of young soccer players. The departing voice of Racing Louisville (but still the voice of LouCity) Lance McGarvey was the master of ceremonies and kept the evening fun.

Although there has been nothing officially announced, it would be very easy to picture this an an annual event. The tickets were a bit on the expensive side, so maybe there is an opportunity to hold another charitable/fundraising event that could be open for more people, but that shouldn't diminish the impact of this event. I congratulate Soccer Holdings and the LouCity and Racing Foundation on a fun and successful night.

And I think we found a new motto to live by…

Michael Shaw 9/26/22 Michael Shaw 9/26/22

Angel City 1 Racing 3 Post Match Thoughts

If any of Angel City’s celebrity owners handed out orange slices after the match on Sunday night, I bet it left a bitter aftertaste for the ACFC players (Yes, I have been sitting on that insult for a while). The victory for Racing was surely sweet after a tough loss against Portland.

Prior to the match, we received the terrible news that Nadia Nadim suffered another ACL injury. It seems premature to talk about prognosis, so all I will say for now is “Get Well Soon, Dr. Nadim.”
In the early part of the match, I thought that Angel City looked quick and sharp in their passing. It's not that Racing was sluggish, but they were not as sharp as the home side. The thought that entered my head a little more than 35 minutes through the first half (just before Racing equalized) was that Angel City was a lot like their number 9 Savannah McCaskill, equally capable of greatness and prone to moments of insanity. Shortly after Racing equalized, one of those moments of insanity occurred when Nielsen committed one of the most clearly obvious penalties you will ever see and seemed briefly confused (or play-acted confusion) as to why she was penalized. Alex Chidiac stepped up moments later and converted the penalty (clearly aided by her recent appearance on the Vamos Morados podcast). Even though McCaskill scored (a goal she knew absolutely nothing about), she reminded Racing fans as to why she was a frustrating figure sometimes last year as she over dribbled more than once.
Racing was mostly clinical with their chances which is something that has been lacking most of the season. It's hard to pick the better goal between Davis and Ekic, so let's not. It's also hard to pick the better assist between Fox and Howell, but I will give the nod to Howell as she won possession just prior to playing Davis in on goal.
Racing had a few nervy moments trying to defend a one-goal lead and looked really under pressure at the start of the second half. After about 5 minutes of constant pressure, they were able to keep possession better in the next 5. I don't think they were overly conservative in their second half setup, but it's obviously easier to keep a lead with the ball vs. without it. Racing had their first come-from-behind road victory ever, which is a nice accomplishment too (last year they had one late in the season vs. Orlando at home., also 3-1).
For the season, Racing took 7 points from the 2 California expansion sides. That's not a bad return. Only the Reign and Orlando won more points. It kind of begs the question as to why the rest of the league didn't do better. I am putting it down to the overall lack of a few clearly dominant teams.
Before the next and final home match, the Racing players will attend the Soccer Ball. I imagine the event will be slightly more fun coming off of a victory.

Michael Shaw 9/25/22 Michael Shaw 9/25/22

Angel City 1 Racing 3 Player Ratings

Racing ruined Angel City’s night and may have ruined their playoff hopes. The home team had a really fortuitous bounce on their opening goal, but Racing recovered and responded with 3 unanswered goals to secure 3 points.

Lund-8: Made quite a few very good saves, but now holds the rather unwanted record of most saves in a single NWSL season.

Fox-8: Excellent defensively and her terrific assist led to Ekic putting the nail in Angel City's coffin.

Murray-7: Made an absolutely critical touch in the box to prevent a late chance.

Bonner-7: Led the team valiantly and was very communicative on the night.

Lester-7: Did fine defensively, but was rusty in her passing.

Howell-9 (Player of the Match): Had an absolute monster game. Won the ball and created the chance for Davis’ opener.

DeMelo-7: Another solid performance for Sav, but for once her teammates were the stars for the evening.

Milliet-7: Less involved than usual, but won the penalty for the go ahead goal.

Chidiac-7: Took her penalty calmly and ruthlessly.

Ekic-7: Had a cracker of a finish for the goal that was the icing on the cake.

McDonald-7: Worked her tail off as usual, but couldn't find the right ball to play into the box. On this night, it didn't matter.

Davis-8: Smashed an absolute stunner into Angel City’s goal to get Racing back on level terms.

Michael Shaw 9/23/22 Michael Shaw 9/23/22

Angel City v Racing Preview

Racing will be looking to recover from a stinging loss to Portland where they played decently for the first 45 and then succumbed to a much better Thorns team in the second half. Personally, I don’t believe Angel City has near the amount of quality that Portland does, so I expect a much better performance from Racing on Sunday evening. In keeping with recent tradition in that these “previews” are only previews in the sense that I write about them prior to the match, and then pretty much say whatever is currently on my mind, I want to share a few tidbits and then get to the match at hand.

If Emily Fox plays in the next two matches for Racing (and there is no reason that she shouldn’t), she will be the second player to make 50 NWSL appearances for Racing. This will be a little more difficult for the team to celebrate, as there will not be another chance for Emily to appear in front of the Lynn Family Stadium crowd until next year. Look for the club to post something during the October 1st match on social media and then potentially announce something prior, during, or after the match. Being that we are a couple of matches away from this being an absolute certainty, let’s stick a pin in this for now but I wanted to make fans aware to be on the lookout for something in regard to this milestone.
Zach Allen-Kelly made a famous prediction that Racing would “turn over more than 50% of its roster next year” on one of our prediction columns for the State of Louisville. I always had it in my mind that he meant from the end of the 2021 season to start of the 2022 season. Looking at that number, it was just under 50%. Through another measure comparing the end of season roster in 2021 to the end of season roster in 2022, only 7 players (28%) survived a full second season with Racing (Milliet, Fox, Martin, Ekic, Lund, Bonner, and Nadim). I don’t bring this up to be a downer, but to remind you that there are 7 players who only have an option for 2023 (Beall, Bloomer, Bonner, Chidiac, Ekic, Goins, and Malham) and 2 whose contracts are completely up (Martin and Cheyna Matthews). Chidiac mentioned this in passing on the most recent version of the Vamos Morados podcast. Technically, Beall, Bloomer, Ekic, Goins, Malham and Martin couldn’t play for another NWSL team unless Racing gave permission, Bonner and Chidiac I believe would be more likely to head back overseas, and Matthews has full free agency. It will likely be another high turnover offseason even with some of the key players locking in a few more years. Zach and I will likely to another off-season prediction column, so we will see what his forecast is for 2023. He was eerily close last year regardless of the measure.
Players will be looking to exit Louisville and return home during their off seasons, so the next home match on October 1st may be your last chance to show your favorite players your appreciation. I did get to have a couple of post season interactions with Michelle Betos, my favorite player last year but that was purely accidental. Start to brace yourself to see some players in a Racing kit for the last time.
As for the match in LA, Angel City have loads to play for and Racing would enjoy mothing more that making sure at least one of the expansion teams doesn’t make this year’s playoffs. In their own ways, both Angel City and San Diego have set a new standard for expansion teams. I don’t expect the next few expansion teams to be as successful on the pitch as the two SoCal teams, but they have set a blueprint. The 2023 won’t see expansion, and I think a little stability might help all of the teams in the offseason. What would help Racing the most is another high draft pick, which they are looking very likely for 3rd or better, and a couple of decent performances in the last two matches. However, I’m not sure how much positivity or negativity carries over from season to season, but a win in LA would be fair payback for the early season loss to Angel City at home.

BLOG

Racing Louisville: 2022 Fourth Quarter Review

Racing's performances ranged from total disaster to pure bliss in the last six matches of the season, but ultimately lead to hope for 2023

Hitting a wall

One inevitable step back, then two steps forward

What's next for Racing?

Post Season Report Card

Unacceptable

Disappointing

Kirsten Davis (5-7 goals)

Jess McDonald (3-5 goals)

Nadia Nadim (3-5 goals)

Thembi Kgatlana (2-4 goals)

Emina Ekic (2-4 goals)

Sav DeMelo (2-4 goals)

Parker Goins (1-3 goals)

Wang Shuang (1-3 goals)

Alex Chidiac (1-3 goals)

Emily Fox (1-3 goals)

Ary Borges (0-2 goals)

Lauren Milliet (0-2 goals)

Jae Howell (0-2 goals)

Elli Pikkujämsä (0-2 goals)

Summary

Emily Madril (<5% chance)

Draft pick TBD (50/50)

New Signing TBD (10-15% chance)

Elli Pikkujämsä (30% chance)

Gemma's other duties

Jordyn Bloomer

Hillary Beall

Jessica McDonald

Alex Chidiac

Emina Ekic

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator.

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator

Soccer Holdings LLC enabled the hiding of a sexual predator