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Louisville 2 Chicago 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Jordan Prather
I think Louisville would sign up to play Chicago every week because they certainly seem to have their number this year. Louisville showed their depth on the night and as the roster returns to full strength it will make selection interesting for the last few matches of the league season.
I don't want to dwell too much on the details of the goals because I think there are more interesting items from the match, but Baggett's outside foot finish was delightful and Monaghan's finish on her goal was lethal. There were other opportunities too, but both goals were well taken.
I really thought that Parker Goins helped Louisville keep its attacking speed up early. Usually when she plays she is a like-for-like replacement for her good friend Davis. I thought she brought something different on the wing compared to Wang. I asked Coach Björkegren about the differences between the two players after the match and he basically said they couldn't be more different. This is a good thing. I think the best use of a sub is to change the pace of the match. Goins played early balls in attack that created real danger. Wang is the more technically gifted player for sure, but Louisville is very soon going to be able to really throw opponents off with their substitutes if they play it right.
The only nitpicking, troubling item on the night was that several times Chicago split through Louisville's defense with a single pass. This pass was usually central and basic “Route One football”. If Mal Swanson had been on the end of those passes the scoreline might have looked much different. It's something to keep an eye on when Louisville plays a team with a more dangerous central striker.
The defensive unit was once again tremendously effective with Chicago never really posing a serious threat. It does seem like it takes them a few minutes to get into rhythm sometimes and Chicago had a half chance early. Milliet was flying all over the pitch, but called into defense more than attack. Conversely, Pickett had a tremendous attacking night finding herself forward on several occasions. Erceg is such a pro that it doesn't seem to matter who her center back partner is on the day. Lester never looked troubled and Lund didn't really have to do more than make routine saves. It seemed to me that Lund kept her concentration up and I thought she put in a good performance even though it was routine. I can't remember her putting a foot wrong other than over hitting one pass late in the match that was of no real consequence.
The Challenge Cup math is almost certainly on Louisville's side now. The chances of them hosting a midweek semifinal in September look increasingly likely. This would obviously be their first true knockout match. I’m getting my hopes up because the atmosphere For knockout matches are just different.
Louisville 2 Chicago 0 Player Ratings
Louisville used two first half goals to handle Chicago once again. The win puts Louisville in prime position for a semifinal appearance in the Challenge Cup.
Lund-7: Once again she waa.not called on to do much, but was better in distribution and time wasted effectively.
Pickett-8: Really lively on the night especially in attack.
Erceg-7: Solid once again, but had one or two nervy touches early.
Lester-7: Calm and collected and rarely called into action.
Milliet-7: Took over DeMelo's role as being the most frequently fouled player.
Howell-7: Picked up an early yellow but managed it well and shut down a bunch of counters in the second half.
Baggett-8: Had a really cheeky touch on the goal and was really good in possession too.
Fischer-7: Looks to be a solid backup for DeMelo.
Monaghan-9: Clearly her best match in a Louisville uniform. She told the media that she will be thinking more about the goals she missed, but buried her best chance.
Davis-8: Was an absolute nuisance in the first half, but couldn't finish off any of her opportunities in the second half.
Goins-7: It was interesting to contrast what she brings in comparison to Wang. Louisville seemed to play quicker with her on the pitch.
Louisville v Chicago Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville looks to return to action against Chicago on Friday night at 7pm. After a week off, the team will look to continue its momentum in the Challenge Cup and keep its perfect record going. Louisville has a season-high of 8 players listed as out (6 for international duty), so they will have to pull from there depth to get a result on Friday.
In addition to the six players at the World Cup, Louisville also has Holloway, Ekic, and Pikkujämsä returning from international duty. This match more than any other will be a test of Louisville's bench strength. Luckily for Louisville, they could get potentially 20 minutes from Nadia Nadim if her pattern follows a similar pattern to Kgatlana’s return. In addition, Louisville will benefit from only having to make one forced change in Wang Shuang. Chicago is starting to play better and doesn’t have many international absences. It would be virtually impossible for them to play worse than they did in Louisville’s 3-0 victory at Lynn Family Stadium earlier this year. I expect Chicago to put up more of a fight this time around.
One of the difficult things to do in my opinion is to beat an opponent multiple times in a season, especially in a league where the margins are so fine. Jae Howell commented on Thursday, that the difficulty comes down to mentality more than anything else. It is a fine line between confidence and overconfidence. Even when playing well, Louisville has been prone to slow starts. They have shown resiliency to be able to overcome them, but Chicago pretty much capitulated after going down 2 in Louisville. I think the plan will be to try to attack Chicago early and shake their confidence.
With a win, Louisville can set itself up pretty favorably for the next couple of matches. It’s not impossible, but it would be difficult to see any other team that doesn’t win its group hitting 12 points. I will go ahead and say that a win on Friday all but guarantees Louisville a place in the semifinals. Therefore, it will be key to go out and attack in the this match. Louisville’s last two Challege Cup matches will be on the road and there will be very little rotation in the squads now that there are no double game match weeks in the schedule for a while. Louisville can expect the full force of Kansas City’s and Houston’s available squads in the two road matches, so it would be best to take care of business at home on Friday night.
Louisville 2 Kansas City 1 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy EM Dash Photography
Louisville overcame some unfortunate things that didn’t go their way to earn all 3 points at home against Kansas City. The Current came in on a mini win streak but didn’t really look any better than the team that Louisville had beaten fairly easily twice already this season. Louisville’s players looked comfortable and composed all match and didn’t panic when they fell behind early. There was a confidence to the performance that you wish they could carry over to use against more teams where prior history isn’t on their side.
After the match Björkegren was asked about how the team handled going behind early. In his remarks he shared that he told the team that this was a “must win” match. I agree with that, but sometimes that can make you play a little nervy. Coach Kim also shared that he wasn’t pleased at all with the first 10 minutes of the match. If Louisville had any nerves during the match, it showed here. The usually calm Erceg hastily cleared the ball and caused Jae to defend herself with her arm for the penalty. It looked to me like she had a bit more time to clear it. Fischer struggled a little in defense early too, with Björkegren bellowing her name while on defense at least once. Once the penalty was converted, it was one-way traffic for virtually the rest of the match.
On overturned goal, I thought the goal was ruled out due to a handball. At one point, I heard there was a foul called. On the replay I could see that Pikkujämsä might have impeded Franch, but that was almost undetectable in real time. Louisville’s official recap stated that the goal was ruled offside which is also completely plausible. Whichever way it wasn’t a goal, it was ruled not a goal on the field. I think everyone can live with that, but I can tell you what didn’t happen. The touchline official didn’t raise his flag, and least not immediately after the action. It looks like the officials were in constant communication with each other and they probably got the call right. My complaint is that for the second time in two matches, the officials haven’t used the generally recognized signals to let the fans know what is happening. When the linesman raises his flag for a foul or an offside, I tend to catch it as do the more knowledgeable fans. Nobody in the stadium seemed to know what was going with the call. First and foremost the officials should get the call right. However, I believe that they also have a duty to the fans to at least let us know what is going on even if we don’t agree with it. It wasn’t as bizarre as the alleged one-handed signally of advantage during the Reign match, but it did impact the fan experience.
The rest of the match was fairly smooth sailing for Louisville as they had loads of chances and were able to convert on 2 of their 26 shots. Monaghan’s goal was a strike worthy of winning any match. Pikkujämsä’s goal was what happens when you are in the right place at the right time. Fischer and Wang both had 6 shots with Fischer having the best of those chances. On the defensive side, Louisville once again played “keep away” and the Current didn’t have that many meaningful touches in Louisville’s half after Monaghan’s goal.
I doubt that we will hear many complaints about the substitutions in this match, but Björkegren stuck to his substitution pattern of Goins on for Davis around the 60th minute, then leaving the rest up to what he sees in real time. Kansas City put on plenty of “fresh legs” but they didn’t change the match in my eyes. I maintain it matters who you sub on and off and not just that you make a bunch of substitutions. Obviously, hindsight is the best way to evaluate substitutions, but I don’t think Coach Kim will listen to the noise about how he substitutes.
The midfield of Howell, Baggett, and Fischer had a much better second outing and were able to control the midfield for large portions of the match. Howell did a terrific job of monitoring play from the back and keeping the Current midfield on their back foot. Baggett had a really good box-to-box match and Fischer was involved in the attack all night. Madalyn Pokorny made her debut coming on for Fischer and put in an impressive 8 minutes.
Louisville will have a week off now, so I will take one too. The caveat is that with the transfer window open if news breaks, I might have something to say about the arrivals or departures.
Louisville 2 Kansas City 1 Player Ratings
Courtesy Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville thoroughly dominated and even a single goal flattered the Current. It was an important win and hopefully the start of a winning run.
Lund-6: Not really called into action at all other than the penalty.
Pickett-7: Typical good attacking/defending performance.
Erceg-7: Unlucky twice, but good otherwise.
Pikkujämsä-8: Really good defensively and took her goal well.
Milliet-7: See Pickett. Now has to be considered of equal quality to her.
Howell-8: Excellent in helping keep the Current pinned in during the second half.
Baggett-7: Filling in well for Borges.
Fischer-7: Looked a little out of place defensively at times but was solid going forward.
Monaghan-8: Scored a textbook counterattacking goal.
Davis-7: Starting to understand the hold up side of the game more and more.
Wang-7: Had a few opportunities, but ultimately couldn't convert.
Louisville v Kansas City Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
Louisville goes for 3 wins in 3 attempts on Friday versus Kansas City. You never want to discount points already taken and I maintain that a long cup run is Louisville's best chance at success this season, but this match seems like the biggest of the 3 so far. The table is tightening up and no match is mathematically a must win yet, but it's hard to see a path to a playoff spot for Louisville without a win on Friday. I expect the starting XI to remain unchanged (note: I was not at practice so this is speculation).
If Louisville are to get 3 points on Friday, they will have to put in a more connected performance than the team did on Saturday in Seattle. I chalk both of Louisville's goals up to good fortune, and I don't think you can count on another penalty or dreadful goalkeeping like Saturday. Personally, I would like to see what Goins can do from the start. I think that I will probably have to wait for the next 3 Challenge Cup matches to see that though.
Kansas City has strung together some good results and in the NWSL it seems like at least one team makes a pretty good late run for the playoffs, usually after underperforming when compared to expectations (see the Courage last season). The Current fit the bill this season as their expectations seemed to be sky high. They have also been feast or famine in the league somehow managing zero draws. Louisville is the queen of drawing so this will be the case of an erratic force vs. an object that is just as likely to move vs. not move. I like the original saying much better.
Something tells me that this battle might come down to the goalkeepers which is something I never say and frankly never want. Franch was bad enough this season to lose her job to Miller, but Louisville put 2 past her in Kansas. Both of those were one-on-one losses for Miller, so she will be looking to atone. I have been openly critical of Lund's performances recently. You can point to statistics and make a really good case that she has been excellent. However, I am suspicious of quite a few statistics when it comes to soccer, and I would triple down on goalkeeping statistics. Because the defense has played so much better and Louisville does a better job of keeping their own goal out of constant danger, Katie isn't called on as much as usual. In my opinion (and as always possibly only mine) the best attribute a keeper can have is the ability to go from 0 to 60. In essence, when you have had nothing to do, can you be ready when you are immediately called upon? Lund's shot-stopping ability is top notch. To me her biggest areas of improvement remain ball handling and concentration. Too many times she punches when she should catch and recently she has turned some routine touches into an unnecessary adventure. When you're constantly called upon, I have to believe that you get a better feel for the ball. Sometimes she genuinely seems to be taken off guard when the defensive in front of her let’s a shot through. It's a testament to how much more calm and disciplined the back 4 have beee recently, but there have many keepers that look fantastic on bad teams simply because they have to be (Betos, year one in Louisville). I think it's time for Lund to step up and show that she is a keeper prepared to make the next step. She has all of the tangible attributes, but to move to greatness and to get shot at a call up to the USWNT she will have to work on this next phase of her game.
Reign 2 Louisville 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Somehow, almost in spite of themselves, Louisville wakes up on Sunday morning in better shape in the league table than they did when they started the day on Saturday. It isn’t much better and they now have Orlando breathing down their necks. They are also closer to 12th place than 6th. Feel free to insert you cliche here, but this season especially feels like no team is yet out of the playoff hunt. Louisville played neither particularly well nor particularly poorly on Saturday in Seattle. Both goals for Louisville were gifts and the goals they conceded were on a terrific header and one of the goofiest ones you will ever see. They somehow won the possession battle while never looking completely comfortable with the ball.
If you ever wanted a simple explanation of why I tend to ignore xG as a single data point in matches, I present to you that Elyse Bennett’s goal had an xG of .19 and Bethany Balcer’s had .15. I am sure that the main numerical difference in these numbers is due to the distance, but surely LOOKING TOWARDS THE GOAL, increases your chances of scoring. I doubt it happens enough to warrant a change in the model, and in the aggregate over time those things even out. However, as single data points I have to believe that Balcer finishes her chance more often than Bennett. As in all cases, maybe I am wrong and Bennett’s chance really was the better of the two, so I won’t belabor the point. I just found in amusing.
Giving up two late goals isn’t the recipe for success, but I can’t point to anything that Louisville should have done differently tactically. We know that front-footed pressure is what works for them, but that is more difficult to do to a good opponent especially on the road. I could go back and rewatch the last 10 minutes or so, but why would I do that to myself. I have millions of other things I would rather do.
Quick hits on individual players:
Milliet struggled for the first time in a while at right back. It wasn’t a terrible performance, but King got the better of her in my opinion. I think she will recover pretty quickly to start to play back up to her recent form.
I have seen enough of Davis to say that she isn’t ready to lead the line. She may have to until Nadim is healthy or Louisville brings in another striker. I can’t remember the last time I was so mad at a player as when Pickett was making a long forward run with Davis in front of her. That run was probably at least 20 to 30 yards. Davis wasn’t onside for any of it. Strikers must learn to be onside above all else. It was incredibly frustrating to watch. She did put in a good ball into the box towards Baggett I believe, but that was really to only noteworthy positive thing she did.
We got to see “Good Wang” for this match. “Bad Wang” shows up too many times for my taste, but she was good yesterday.
Lund hasn’t been very sharp recently. I don’t know if she could have stopped either of the goals, but she didn’t look that assured on the ones that she did. It looks to me like it’s maybe a confidence issue, but what do I know?
Reign 2 Louisville 2 Player Ratings
It was a very odd game with a very lucky equalizer for the Reign, and Louisville once again let a 2 goal lead slip away.
Lund-6: Stagnant on both goals, but nothing much she could have done differently.
Pickett-7: Good going forward, but maybe could have done a little better on the first goal.
Erceg-7: Another solid performance.
Pikkujämsä-7: It was a mixed bag for Elli but a crucial interception near the end bumps her up a point.
Milliet-7: King really caused her trouble but got an assist on the Monaghan goal.
Howell-6: Not as involved as much as she usually is.
Baggett-7: Good on both sides of the ball.
Fischer-7: Had 2 pretty decent opportunities to score, which was encouraging.
Monaghan-8: Calmly finished her chance for Louisville's second.
Davis-6: Needs to step up her game if she is going to keep her starting spot.
Wang-8: Took her penalty well and had a good match overall.
Bonus Rating- Alex Billeter-0: One of the worst game management performances I have ever seen in this league and that is saying something.
Reign v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I like to pull photos from the previous year’s fixture to use in my pre match thoughts blog posts. It’s pretty startling to see the Starting XI the last time Louisville traveled to the northwest to face the Reign. Kizer and Salmon were both on that team and Kizer started. Louisville only has 5 players available to start from that lineup and only 3 likely will.
I will spare you my previously well documented thoughts on international football, but in my opinion another step towards equality in women’s sports will be achieved when clubs and their players have enough combined influence and power to mitigate the necessity of having a league match played when players are committed to international duty. Nobody else wants my easy solution, but perhaps a Dec/Jan World Cup in Australia/New Zealand wouldn’t have been a terrible idea although the A-League fans would surely disagree. There is no good compromise…
Anyhoo, Louisville now finds itself in little-margin-for-error territory with no-margin-for-error territory quickly on its tail. If ever there was a chance to steal 3 points in Seattle, this could be it. The Reign is missing significant star power, but still have enough to be considered the favorite heading into this match. Most of Louisville’s goal scoring prowess will be absent for this matchup so they will need to find a way to manufacture a goal. I have previously commented on their recent inability to get a well-constructed goal, and you have to think that it will have to come from transition or a set piece. Louisville will need to rely on its defensive stability and thankfully for them the back 4 plus Howell should be available. If Louisville has an advantage over some of the other teams during this international window it is that its back 4 should remain steady and unchanged.
Where will the goals come from? If ever Davis is going to take the next step, could it be now please? Ekic is healthy and I for one would be willing to live with her defensive inconsistency because she wouldn’t have to be as good as a wing defender with Louisville’s improved sturdiness on defense. Goins will surely start at some point, but I don’t think it is tomorrow. Louisville could decide to move Pikkujämsä up and play Lester at center back and move Howell forward in the midfield. Coach Björkegren’s season will surely be evaluated to some extent by how he manages these next few weeks.
North Carolina 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
I have some kind of self-imposed duty to write my thoughts about every match, but if I've ever been tempted to skip a match, this one gave me the strongest urge. The main reason behind this is that both matches against North Carolina this year have just been “one of the games”. Louisville didn't play particularly poorly or well, so that usually means that you leave the outcome to chance.
I believe that both teams yesterday would have been fairly satisfied with the tactical execution during the match. Louisville looked comfortable ceding possession for large sections of the match and the Courage were pretty content with the lion's share of it. I thought Louisville defended well for the most part, with only the scrappy goal from Lussi finding its way in. Erceg was my player of the match, due mostly to her preventing a second gaol late in the match, even though she was very good throughout. Another thing that I noticed was that Milliet looked particularly quick getting to the hall on defense. In addition, Pikkujämsä had the chance to show off her pace too making a late recovery to stop a chance for North Carolina. Even though Louisville's goal prevention streak is over, the defense looked as solid as it has been over the last few weeks.
Once again, Louisville doesn't look like it can break down a defense with clinical precision, so that means that the goals will need to come from set pieces, defensive mistakes by their opponents, a scrappy goal like the Courage were able to get, quick counters, or defensive splitting passes. Louisville's best chance came late on one of those defensive splitting passes from Milliet to Goins. Parker came tantalizingly close to finding the equalizer and scoring from the bench again, but her effort was just wide.
Breaking down an opponent requires the quick/fast conundrum. You should always play quickly but never rushed. Louisville seemed like its attack lacked that little bit of urgency and composure. Patience and quickness may seem like distant cousins at first glance, but it's basically how predators get their prey. Maybe it's better said that it's decisiveness and precision are the key to breaking down the opposition. Simply said in footballing terms, the passes need to be quicker, more accurate, and more purposeful. Louisville seems to be caught to some degree in a reliance on Kgatlana to lead the attack and DeMelo to get the goals. Both of those players will soon be gone for a while, so Louisville will get plenty of opportunity to see if they can figure out a different way to win.
Björkegren decided to do a full swap of his forwards all of once. Kgatlana was getting very close to committing a second yellow, and I thought he pulled her just in time. I don't know if I am a fan of the 3 subs at once approach, but I will say that the attack didn't really get better or worse. I think mixing up the forwards some more may be warranted. I would like to see Goins in with Kgatlana again. Wang simply isn't consistent enough up front and I have been saying for a while that she needs to drop into the number 10 role. Björkegren will have to experiment some in the coming weeks.
North Carolina 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
Louisville saw its long streak of not allowing their opponents to score broken late in the match and ultimately that was the difference. North Carolina exploited Louisville's continued lack of consistent finishing and now Louisville has failed to score in 2 out of its last 3 league matches.
Lund-6: Not to blame on the goal and not required to do much otherwise.
Pickett-7: Typical solid performance.
Erceg-8: Saved a late chance by getting in a crucial touch near goal.
Pikkujämsä-7: Made some good recoveries and seems to be taking over for Lester at least temporarily at center back.
Milliet-7: Not quite as good as she had been recently, but still effective. Created a great late chance for Goins.
Howell-6: Didn't really have a bad game, but with the possession so one-sided the midfield gets a bit of a downgrade in this match.
Borges-6. Pretry much the same as Howell, but did get taken off the ball easily a few times.
DeMelo-6: Not poor, but not nearly up to her recent high standards.
Kgatlana-6: Björkegren smartly pulled her because she was about one more bad touch from a second yellow.
Davis-6: Not really involved much (legally) with an offside header being her most memorable contribution.
Wang-5: Virtually invisible for too much of the match.
North Carolina v Louisville Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Anne Evans
It’s been a while since I have reported on my tracking of how teams that score first are performing this season, so let’s do that first. I see this as more of a macro level measures, so I combine performance in the league and cup into one chart. You could easily separate the two, but I think the combined chart shows Louisville upward trajectory more clearly so I went with the combined one. Here it is:
Note that Louisville is comfortably above average in both metrics, winning points when scoring first and salvaging points when not. Their numbers are greatly assisted by their performances in the Challenge Cup but it is a part of the story of the season so far, so I think it matters. The most interesting data point on the chart by a long shot is the Washington Spirit, which basically says they are never comfortable with a lead nor out of a match.
With that update out of the way, I will turn my attention to North Carolina on Saturday. Louisville still has its full roster at its disposal except for Alex Chidiac (and the long-term absentees) who has already left to join the Australian National Team. To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, I am once again asking for your support in treating the North Carolina team as a beatable opponent and not some unconquerable monster. I was a little disheartened to hear Bekki Morgan on the most recent episode of BTRD say that a 2-1 loss wouldn’t be a disappointment (or something of similar sentiment as I am too lazy to fact check what she actually said). Bekki and I tend to agree more than we disagree, but perhaps our biggest difference in opinion lies in how we see Louisville’s performance against the teams where they have had no success. I don’t see Portland or North Carolina as unbeatable and no result other than a win should be taken with anything other than disappointment. It wouldn’t be season-ending or even day-ruining disappointment, but I am afraid that a draw would be over celebrated, and a close loss written off all too easily. Of course, absolutely none of this matters to the players who are never happy with anything other than all three points, so any amount of fan-initiated handwringing is moot anyway.
Louisville could be slightly buoyed by their first half performance at home vs. the Courage, where they dictated the match but couldn’t break through. On the other hand, the Courage have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently, winning 4 out of 5 matches in the league and cup which incidentally started with a win in Louisville. Maybe Erceg and Pickett will take a little something extra back to North Carolina, but ultimately this match will come down to who can finish off their chances better. Louisville averages a shot on target more than the Courage, so maybe they can find a way to make the math pay off for them in this match. A win for Louisville would put them in a playoff position this late in the season for the first time ever, at least until Sunday when Gotham and Houston would need to get a draw and a win respectively to keep up.
Louisville 2 Gotham 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
Louisville continued its run of impressive play on Sunday afternoon at home vs. Gotham. The win allowed them to jump up a spot on the table, and to close the gap to 6th place to 3 points with a superior goal difference compared to the two teams directly above them. The next two macthes are on the road versus two teams currently in playoff position in the North Carolina Courage and the OL Reign. It will be key to tranlate the form facilitated by the comforts of home to making those opponents as uncomfortable as possible.
Louisville has conceded only one goal in the last 5 macthes across all competitions. This defensive performance, while definitely helped by Louisville's press wasn't completely reliant on it, which is a good sign. Gotham ended up with close to 60% of the possession by the end of the match, but it was virtually even at half and tilted in Louisville's favor prior to the first goal. Gotham is a much better attacking team than Louisville's previous opponent Houston, and while Louisville wasn't able to keep Gotham pinned in, the team was able to defend well in front of goal. Gotham's best chance came when a free header hit the post and O'Hara probably should have scored. Other than that, none of Gotham’s attacks should have troubled Lund. However, Lund didn't have the best handle on the ball in the first half and made a couple of chances more dangerous than they should have been. Ultimately it didn't matter because with a 2 goal lead Louisville was able to sit back smartly and the match was never in doubt after Kgatlana's early second half goal.
Kgatlana is clearly going to be the fastest player on the pitch the overwhelming majority of the time that she's on it. She had 4 shots in the match and it would be pretty easy picturing any of them going in. It's still too small of a sample size to put too much stock in, but you have to feel like that she could have 2 or 3 goals by now. On one hand the xG model from American Soccer Analysis says she's probably right where she needs to be with 1 goal on 1.13 xG. On the other hand, she's only put 2 of 12 shots on target. If she can put more of her shots on goal, she could become even scarier for opponents than she already is.
DeMelo has all but officially played her way into a spot on the US's World Cup roster. I'll miss watching her for the weeks she's gone. Right now the ball just seems to find her in dangerous positions. Kgatlana talked at length about the depth of the squad during her post match press conference, and I feel better about DeMelo's absence than I would have felt a month ago. I would feel infinitely better if Nadim was back in time to replace her scoring. That remains to be seen, but Ekic, Goins, and Fischer seem like they have goals in them. Monaghan and Davis can score too, but you would have liked to see a little more consistency given the minutes they've logged.
I now believe that the three players that have become irreplaceable are Pickett, Erceg and Milliet. Unless something truly unexpected happens, all 3 will be with Louisville during the World Cup. The season flashed before my eyes when Erceg went down late. I’ve already seen one dream evaporate this year with an irreplaceable CB going down injured (IYKYK) and don't think my heart could take another.
Things are starting to click into place for Coach Björkegren and the club may ultimately benefit from the patience it has shown with him. While he never looks to up or too down, you could tell that he was worried after the loss to Orlando. Since then he has seemed to be more comfortable in his status at the club. Regardless of how hot the hot seat really was, it has cooled tremendously. I always thought he was getting his message across to his players, so it's good to see that the players have stepped up their performance, but more importantly their focus and intensity in order to start to translate their talent and skills into results. I think how he manages the World Cup matches will ultimately define the season, so look for him to really push for results while some of his key players are gone. The Challenge Cup group could be locked up early, but Louisville will want a home semifinal so I think they will continue to try to win every match in that competition.
Louisville 2 Gotham 0 Player Ratings
Neely chucked a piece of ice at DeMelo during the press conference…you know, like good friends do 😀
Louisville put in another good performance, this time in front of a nationally televised audience. If Louisville continues these types of performances, they will find themselves in playoff contention sooner vs. later.
Lund-6: Dangerously nervy in the first half, but solid in the second. She may need to find a way to conjure up the type of performances she did last year, but on the other hand maybe not if the defense continues to play well. Either way, has to be better at catching shots directed right at her.
Pickett-7: Picked up a sneaky clever yellow and managed it well after that.
Erceg-8: Scared the soul out of every Louisville fan when she went down late, but seemed to be okay after the match.
Pikkujämsä-8: Her physicality kept many Gotham attacks at bay. It was good to see her put in a full 90 because 90s will be needed from her as the season wears on.
Milliet-8: After the match, DeMelo referred to her as the smartest soccer player she has ever played with. I can't remember if the NWSL has a most improved player type award, but she would be high on that list if they do. She is so much more comfortable and looks like she has been playing right back for years.
Howell-7: Will be disappointed that she missed a sitter for the chance to go up 3-0.
Borges-7: Will be missed incredibly when she goes off to the World Cup. She is starting to impress more on the defensive end.
DeMelo-8: What can you say? She had a ball magnet in her foot, so she just finds all kinds of different ways to score.
Kgatlana-8: Will hopefully keep finding the types of opportunities she had in this match. I consider her a volume type of scorer in that the math simply dictates that with as many opportunities she gets, at least one will go in. If she can figure out how to be more clinical, she could be unstoppable.
Davis-7: Wasn't as involved as the other forwards, but did complete all 6 passes. I don't know if she caught Lynn Williams brilliant bit of hold up play to create a secondary break for Gotham in the first half, but that's the next stage in her development.
Wang-7: She had another professional display and had the shot that created DeMelo's goal.
Louisville v Gotham Pre Match Thoughts
All Photos courtesy of Elizabeth Shaw
Louisville prepared for its upcoming match vs Gotham on a beautiful Saturday morning with kickball matches being played on the surrounding fields. One of the interesting things you start to see at practices later in the season is Julie Twaddle becoming more creative with her warm up activities. Today's activity was the outfield players split into 4 groups of 5 and having to move the ball with 2 players, strictly through the air and scoring without the ball touching the ground. Here are some pics from that exercise.
It was a close competition but Jae, Thembi, Abby, Carson, and Ary were in the winning group. Jae was super excited to win and solidified her spot as the most competitive player on the team.
I expect the upcoming match against Gotham to, if not define the season, pull it into sharp focus. Louisville surely need all 3 points to keep the teams above within enough striking distance to mount a late push for the playoffs. I keep going back and forth on the math, but 21 points seems like the safe number, with 18 points being the “cross your fingers” number of points needed from the last 11 league matches. The match is on “big” CBS, so it will be a showcase game for the team and for the city.
Howell and Björkegren both spoke about the challenge of playing a team with so much attacking talent as Gotham. Björkegren pointed out the Gotham and Louisville play similar styles, but didn't think that impacted their preparation all that much. Jae spoke at length about how Louisville's midfield has gelled, but also said that it would be a challenge to replicate the connections that she, Ary, and Sav have made when the World Cup inevitably shakes up Louisville's midfield. It will be important for Fischer to continue to get minutes because she is now likely to see her minutes increase drastically with DeMelo now presumably being a late addition to the US's World Cup roster. Baggett will surely slide into Borges’ spot, so she will need to build up her match stamina as well.
It might be a but early to think about managing the World Cup break, but it's nice that the roster is the healthiest it has been in months. Nadim wasn't involved today, but had been involved earlier in the week and is still on track for a return sometime this summer. With Murray's departure signifying that the club is happy with its defensive options, Louisville is likely looking to add more midfield and attacking talent to help during the World Cup, and potentially beyond that as the summer transfer window opens soon.
Louisville 3 Houston 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Tommy Quarles/NWSL
Louisville continues to show that it takes the Challenge Cup seriously and strolled to a comfortable win after a frustrating first 45 minutes. Houston rotated fairly heavily, going with a complete change in the backline and rotating half of their front 6. Louisville will make no apologies for this and will look to keep their upward momentum swing going into the league.
With 3 matches in the book, Louisville is in control of their group. However, they must keep an eye on Kansas City who sit on 6 points and if they are being realistic, will see the Challege Cup as their best chance at avoiding a disastrous season. This is also the last match week where Louisville or its opponent will have to worry about rotation, other than the forced rotation that will be caused by player absences during the World Cup. I have been enjoying the Challenge Cup. I am sure that much of that is down to the fact that Racing is undefeated, but I like the new format. It was changed out of necessity, but I think it works. It will be interesting to see how the league handles it next season, but with a sponsor willing to put money into it you have to think it is here to stay. I believe that 12 points will be good enough to win the group, and more than that would probably guarantee it. I couldn’t find this stated anywhere so if someone can confirm or deny please let me know, but you would have to assume that the teams that accumulate the most points will host the semifinal matches. Lou City doesn’t not have a match on September 6th, so there are no conflicting schedule difficulties to deal with. Therefore, Louisville will still be incented to win its remaining matches.
Houston managed only a single shot on target last night, and while they got into some dangerous positions, Louisville defense in the first half did just enough to make sure nothing got close to Lund. In the second half, Louisville continued the trend, in the Challenge Cup at least, of placing most of its defensive effort into keeping the ball in its attacking half. After the match, Björkegren talked about the team’s belief when contrasting their performances earlier in the season in the matches where they squandered 2 goal leads. That may have something to do with it, but I think the team’s commitment to pressing with the lead has been the biggest change. Without making a value judgement, you would have to say that it is working against their opponents in the Challenge Cup. Louisville ended up with close to 60% of the possession, which isn’t too common in this league when you go into halftime up to goals. In the second half, it seemed like 75% of the match was played in the Estopinal End. If the defensive philosophy that works is keeping the ball out of your own half, then I have to say that you really can’t argue with that. Houston’s rare counters fizzled out fairly quickly in this match. I thought Erceg might get a rest on the evening, but she was needed and vital. A loose touch in the first half by one of her teammates was almost a disaster, but she calmly recovered and shepherded the ball back to Lund for a clearance. I think that we could see her play every minute of every match in every competition this season because she never looks tired, while also always looking in control. In case you missed it, Pickett finished out the last ten or so minutes as her center back partner. It was a small sample size, but Pickett looked good in that role and would be a good emergency center back if needed at some point.
Louisville broke its stretch of no goals from open play in the previous two matches to put in two goals from open play and one set piece goal. Fischer’s goal seemed as much as a relief as opposed to a breakthrough due to Kanu’s early goal being ruled offside and the earlier missed chances. Since it was such a relief, I had forgotten what a nice team goal that it was. It started from a goal kick with Lund getting a second touch before she switched play to the left to Pickett, who fed Howell in the middle, who switched it out to the right to Borges, who once again switched play to the left with a fantastic pass for Fischer to get her goal. The second goal was simply Louisville making Houston pay for being sloppy. Mentally, the Dash seemed to already be at halftime and Louisville was only really applying cursory pressure until Pickett forced a terrible pass from Salmon which led to the goal. On the third goal, I could almost read Pickett’s and Erceg’s mind as Erceg made a late back post run. I contend that Carson was aiming for Abby at the back post, but Houston defended the corner so poorly that they committed the cardinal sin of letting the center forward get a clean header right at the penalty spot. Al it took from there was a simple header straight down from Goins. Parker is turning into instant offense as a sub, with Björkegren comparing her favorably to former Manchester United coach and super sub as a player, Ole Gunnar Solskjær after the match.
Now Louisville has to try to keep its momentum and get 3 points vs. Gotham on Sunday. A five-point gap isn’t insurmountable, but having two other teams above you in the table that are also looking to get into 6th is an additional hurdle.
Louisville 3 Houston 0 Player Ratings
Louisville had a fairly comfortable time with Houston on the night. It was a complete team performance with multiple standouts.
Lund-7: Didn't have to do much as Houston's attack was anemic.
Pickett-8: Got the assist on Goins goal.
Lester-8: Had a great attacking run from a recovery late in the second half.
Erceg-9: A masterclass in calm and assured defending.
Milliet-8: Really enjoyed her pairing with DeMelo.
Howell-8: Got a bit of a rest on the night, but really effective while she was on the pitch.
Borges-8: Got the assist on Fischer's opener.
DeMelo-8: Nice to see her score from open play.
Monaghan-8: Good full 90 from her.
Fischer-8: Great to see her get her first goal.
Kanu-8: Had a good finish called back, and managed her early yellow card well.
Goins-8: Scored with her head again.
Louisville v Houston Pre Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Louisville looks to secure firm control of their Challenge Cup group on Wednesday at home vs. the Houston Dash. A win would give them 9 points from 3 macthes and put Houston's chances of advancement to the knockout stage in serious danger. Coach Björkegren has stated on more than one occasion that he wants to win every competition that the team plays, so I believe that he will once again put forward a strong squad.
Houston hasn't put out heavily rotated squads for the Challenge Cup either, and could once again run out their starters. Since Houston plays on Saturday and Louisville on Sunday, there may be slightly more reason for Houston to rotate more than Louisville. Louisville has yet to see what it's defense looks like without Erceg, but she is the only remaining outfield player to play every minute of every competition this season. While she definitely deserves a break, she is so smart in how she manages matches that I wouldn't say that a rest is required. Still, Pikkujämsä, Holloway, Lester, and Murray could fill the 2 centerback spots. I can't imagine that Lester wouldn't start, so I think either Murray or Pikkujämsä probably complement her better than Holloway, who might still see action a left back. I think we likely see Chidiac and Baggett in starting roles again. Louisville's forwards haven't exactly distinguished themselves recent, so a start for Fischer or Goins isn't out of the question.
Maybe the big local story is that if all things go well prior to the match this week, we could see Ekic make her first squad on Wednesday night. Even 30 minutes is probably too much for her right out of the gate, but I would wager that Björkegren holds back a late substitution spot for her. Then again, you never quite know what he might do. I think the goal would be to get Ekic ready to fill in as a substitute up front during the last three Challenge Cup matches which take place during the World Cup, so this is likely her best chance for minutes until then.
Louisville 0 San Diego 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy David Mucker
The main storyline from last night (from a Louisville fan's perspective at least, I don’t want to get into Alex Morgan's intermittent availability to play or fully commit to club football) was probably the inability of their forwards to find the back of the net. Louisville needs some kind of production soon from its forwards to even have a shot at the playoffs.
If you aren’t a fan of math and the reality of numbers, I will suggest that you not visit this space for the remainder of the season. Louisville's biggest opponent for the rest of the season is the mathematical reality they have created for themselves when it comes to reaching the playoffs. Bekki Morgan pointed out on Twitter that for all of the progress that has been made, Louisville only sits one point better than at the same time last season. I would like to think that I am a big picture thinker, and when it comes to this club I really believe that I am, more than most fans. While I detail my thoughts on each match, my general state of mind is always looking towards the bigger picture. Last night in a microcosm wasn't a bad result. In the grand scheme of things it was incredibly damaging. I think that it's human nature to focus on the most recent result or the most recent information. However, this team has a forest problem. The trees are healthier and more appealing, but the forest hasn't grown enough. It's barely 9% better than last year when at least 33% better is what is needed. When I read some comments I tend to think a decent section of the fanbase really can't see the forest for the trees.
It's also blatantly clear what the current problem is. Irrespective of your opinion on the style of play, the team simply doesn't have a reliable goal-scoring forward available at the moment. Those aren't a dime a dozen either, so no simple summer transfer will be guaranteed to solve the problem. The teams whose center forwards have at least 4 goals this season are San Diego, Portland, Gotham, Washington and North Carolina. Those teams also occupy 5 of the top six spots in goals conceded. All of them are in playoff position other than North Carolina, who is one point out as of Saturday morning. The recipe for success in my opinion is get goals up front and be sturdy in the back. Only the OL Reign spreads the goal scoring around enough to overcome a below league average goal concession rate. DeMelo is Louisville's only real scoring threat at the moment. Her recent heat maps show her in a more attack oriented role. I compared DeMelo's heat map from last night to Kgatlana's. While DeMelo still has more touches in the defensive half their attacking points are very similar. One thing to keep an eye on is whether the reliance on DeMelo's attacking prowess starts to leave things open at the back, especially on counters.
DeMelo’s Heatmap
Kgatlana’s heatmap
None of Louisville's shots on target last night seemed clinical enough to make Sheridan irrelevant. Louisville's last really clinical finish (I don’t count Baggett's deflected header) in the league was 4 macthes ago with Davis's finish on the counter against Kansas City. If Louisville needs to create a volume of shots to score one, last night's effort wasn't nearly good enough.
On a positive note the defensive effort last night was good. If Louisville continues to keep clean sheets or only give up single goals, it's not impossible that the playoffs are out of reach. Again, they will need goal from somewhere, but they have always spread the scoring around. They just need more of it.
I'm not shy about counting Milliet as one of my favorite players. Last night she showed her continued growth as a right back. Several times she quickly converted a defensive stop into offensive momentum. As a right sided partner, Wang had a better match than she did in Washington. I do wonder if things could be shuffled around a bit more up front for Louisville to play without a center forward with Monaghan switching to the right side and Wang dropping deeper in the middle. That's just me daydreaming however.
Louisville 0 San Diego 0 Player Ratings
Neither team could find a breakthrough so the match ended 0-0 which was definitely a better result for San Diego. 12 points halfway through the season won't get it done unfortunately.
Lund-7: Solid when called upon.
Pickett-7: Good as ever.
Erceg-7: Steady and assured throughout.
Lester-6: A tad bit shaky early but ended up doing well.
Milliet-7: Has become a specialist in converting defense into attack.
Howell-8: Excellent in the first half, even if she couldn't quite match it in the second.
Borges-7: Had the best opportunity on the night saved by Sheridan.
DeMelo-6: San Diego effectively took her out of the match.
Kgatlana-7: Looked dangerous at times, but couldn't quite find a final touch.
Davis-6: Not involved at all in the first half, but looked more into the match in the second.
Wang-7: Looked really smooth in attack and was more involved defensively.