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Michael Shaw 4/21/23 Michael Shaw 4/21/23

Portland v Louisville Preview

Louisville has never taken a point off of Portland. Until they do so, it’s hard for me to believe that the next match will be any different. When a student starts to learn basic statistics, they may be presented with a problem that starts like “If it rains today, the chances of rain tomorrow is 70%…” It’s a really basic way to look at prediction, but it stuck with me. The rest of the problem usually asks the student (also given the chance of rain if it is not raining today) to predict the probability that it will be raining the day after tomorrow. Louisville very likely will get points off of Portland one day, but I just can’t imagine it happening until they do so. It rained every other time. It will probably rain tomorrow.

In the fandom, there is a definite hangover from the draw in Angel City. However, I don’t expect this match to be anything like that match. Portland will not lay an egg for an entire half. Louisville’s best shot is probably to snatch points in the waning minutes. No multiple goal lead is safe from Portland and any multiple goal lead by Portland is virtually insurmountable.

Björkegren stated that just about everything that could go wrong, did go wrong when it came to squad selection last week. He did concede that he would have likely handled subs differently if he had a full, healthy bench for the match against Angel City. The good news is that Borges, Lester, and Murray have recovered from the issues impacting them. Kanu may be on the bench, but won’t start. Wang is back with the team, so I guess we’ll see what the availability report says about that tomorrow.

One of these days we may get to see a back line of Pickett/Erceg/Pikkujämsä/Milliet, but every time I think so, it doesn’t happen. No matter how much Louisville will want to impose themselves, it’s hard to picture them spending loads of time in their attacking third. I don’t think it’s in anyone’s nature at the club to want to sit deep but if any match calls for a back 5 it’s this one. One option could be Lester at right back and Milliet on the right wing to give you a back 4 with the ball and a back 5 without. That’s probably a little too out there, but I don’t think you have anything to lose.

Michael Shaw 4/16/23 Michael Shaw 4/16/23

Angel City 2 Louisville 2 Post Match Thoughts

Last night was a classic instance of a draw feeling like a loss with 3 points looking likely after a good first half. The question now becomes: “Is this team designed to play 90 minutes?”

First and foremost you have to give Louisville a huge amount of credit for taking the game to Angel City in the first half. Angel City looked overmatched and confused in the first 35 minutes for sure. Louisville's pressing, especially from Davis, seemed to overwhelm them at times. DeMelo won and took her penalty well, and Davis's goal was a textbook example of the type of situations you want to create from pressing. The first 40 minutes from Louisville was probably the best ever sustained performance from them over a large section of a match.
However, scorelines dictate play (and officiating). If you are going to press your way into a lead, you have to either press your way into keeping and building on it, or figure out how to let the air out of the ball. Louisville did neither of those. After the match, Björkegren said that pressing for 90 minutes with the player’s he had available last night was pretty much impossible. I would tend to agree with that sentiment, but also wonder if it's even possible with a full and healthy squad. I am big believer in having a plan B. If Louisville had a plan in the second half, it escaped my vision. The team definitely sat back, but you have to have a plan to do so effectively. While it didn't look pretty, Louisville's defensive effort in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half was effective.
Then Alyssa Thompson came on and changed the match. She attacked almost exclusively from the left and really gave Milliet fits. Lo had an excellent game until Thompson came one, but she couldn't keep up with the speedy substitute. In my mind the key moment of the match occurred when Thompson won the foul which resulted in Angel City's free kick goal. It's an easy thing to say in retrospect, but Milliet probably should have made more of the contact. Footballers are often lamented for acting like the slightest bit of contact is reason to act like you’ve been gravely injured. I blame the officials for this as much as the players. Thompson clearly initiated the contact that led to the foul being called on Milliet, but officials are always likely to let that type of contact go unless you force them to make a call. That's why you see players drop to the ground and immediately handle the ball, thus forcing the official to make the call. A more experienced right back might do so in that situation, but then again they might not. Lo is one of the nicest people you will ever meet and so are her teammates. In this case, a little more cynical player probably wins that foul on Thompson's initial contact.
Savannah McCaskill is a roller coaster ride of a player. In the first half she over dribbled, took wildly speculative shots, and had way too much of the ball making it hard for her teammates to get involved. In the second half she was much better in her vision and distribution. Then she completely wrong footed Monaghan for her excellent goal. At this point in her career, she is who she is. You can win matches with her, but it may be a bumpy ride along the way. She is still one of my favorites regardless.
Winning is something you do collectively, and Louisville still hasn't figured out the formula. It's great to press yourself into a 2 goal lead, but what if the same amount of pressing and effort leaves you on the wrong side of the scoreline? The biggest issue is that the team just never looked composed with the lead. Killing off a match with a lead is a skill and it's one that most teams never learn. I never felt like Louisville was going to score again after half. I don't have the answers and if I did I would be coaching and not writing this. My intuition tells me that you have to keep the opposition pinned to the middle third of the pitch with a lead, but that's easier said than done. What you can't do is let your opponents live in the final third, which is basically what happened here.

Michael Shaw 4/16/23 Michael Shaw 4/16/23

Angel City 2 Louisville 2 Player Ratings

One great half and one not so great half was the story as McCaskill scores against Louisville again.

Lund-6: Made one great save but seemed to be screened off the ball by Pickett on McCaskill goal.

Pickett-7: Solid as usual.

Erceg-6: Not her best game, but still a good showing for the most part.

Holloway-6: Played well in what surely was another surprise start for her.

Milliet-6: Played well until Thompson came on and then struggled a bit with her pace.

Pikkujämsä-6: Looked slightly off her game, but still put in a good shift.

Howell-7: Starred slow but picked it up as the game went along which included a nice tackle that started the move for Davis's goal.

DeMelo-9: Won a penalty, scored a penalty, and got an assist. A performance deserving of a better result.

McDonald-6: Put in a good pressing effort in the first half.

Fischer-7: Did decently in her full debut, and seemed to adapt to the physicality of the league as the match went on.

Davis-8: Was a real nuisance in the first half and made Angel City look weak on their back line. Had an excellent goal.

Michael Shaw 4/14/23 Michael Shaw 4/14/23

Angel City - Louisville Preview

While this Louisville team so far has proven on multiple fronts that they are a much-improved squad they have yet to show what they can do when playing with a lead.

Having played 180 minutes either level or trailing isn’t exactly cause for concern (yet), but it hasn’t let me evaluate one of my lingering concerns from last year which was holding onto a lead. In the 2022 season only Washington was worse than Louisville at getting points after they scored first. The Spirit averaged a dreadful 1.6 points when scoring first and Louisville only managed to be slightly better at 1.7 points (league average being 2.2). It seems painfully obvious that scoring first greatly increases your chances of winning, but that doesn't make it any less important. Scoring first last year gave that team a 65% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and only a 10% chance of losing.

Funnily enough, this week’s Angel City v Louisville matchup in LA was one of those 10% matches last year, and so was the reverse fixture in Louisville. I don’t expect the same thing to happen a third time in a row, but you never know. I asked Paige Monaghan about the importance of getting on the front foot to manage the crowd in LA. She responded that the plan was to (like always) “press and be aggressive” and “we’re going to take it to them.” Similarly I asked Coach Björkegren if the win in LA late last season would be helpful for this season’s match. He responded, “Every time when you win that type of game it helps you.”

One of the noticeable things at practice on Thursday was that both Ekic and Nadim were on the pitch although practicing by themselves. Ekic looks closer to returning to action than Nadim. Kgatlana was a “full” participant in practice, but don’t get your hopes up yet, because there was not a full scrimmage since not all of the players had arrived back from international break. Kgatlana is probably still a month away.

With the delayed return of some players, it is possible that there could be a little rotation. I expect Lester to make the trip and be on the bench, but you have to imagine that the back half of the outfield players for Angel City will be Pickett, Erceg, Pikkujämsä, Milliet and Howell. Those five should remain steady for the foreseeable future unless injury forces a change.

Michael Shaw 4/1/23 Michael Shaw 4/1/23

Louisville 2 Washington 2 Post Match Thoughts

Falling behind two goals inside 35 minutes wasn't the start that Louisville wanted, but a change in mentality and belief compared to last season meant that it wasn't a hill too steep to climb.

However, you’ll recall that Louisville did get a 2-2 draw on the road against Washinton last season. The big difference here is that Washington thoroughly outplayed Louisville in the first half of that match and Louisville were frankly lucky not to be down more than two goals at half. They also rescued a point late on a Nadim brace with the second goal coming in the 89th minute. That draw felt like a win, where this one probably really felt like and deserved to be a draw. Louisville had 25 minutes to try to get the full 3 points and had the better of the chances. Coach Björkegren will take the draw, but still probably wonder if on a better weather day if the full 3 points were there for the taking.
I asked both Björkegren and Erceg after the match how much the wind really played into things and they both agreed that it was the main factor in the match. I also asked Coach Kim if there is even any value in looking at game film from a match like this. He said that there are some things that he can still take away, but I think you probably just need to toss the game film away from a tactical perspective.
Elli Pikkujämsä had a terrific match in a climate much more like her home in Finland that the environment she faced last week in Houston. She had the chance to drop back into the back four when Howell made a late cameo, but she really showed something in midfield on the day. The first half run where she was physically dribbled though some pretty rough contact to come away still in possession was a highlight of the match. It will almost be a shame when she takes up her natural position in the middle of the back line, but Louisville lucky to have Howell to take over that spot.
Ary Borges scored a terrific goal, but even without it was probably still the player of the match. She led the team in touches along with Erceg, and made some really good turns with the ball. I was always going to reserve judgement on her until I saw her in action. Many fans were excited about her on reputation only, and it looks like that reputation is well deserved.
Erceg scored on her home debut for Louisville with a very assured header on an excellent ball taken from the corner by Wang. If Louisville are to make a run at the playoffs, I feel like it will be on her back. She brings so much experience and poise that it is almost impossible to overestimate her value to this young team.

Michael Shaw 4/1/23 Michael Shaw 4/1/23

Louisville 2 Washington 2 Player Ratings

The wind was the big story on the day with all four goals being scored at the open end. It’s hard to take too much away from a game like this from a team perspective, but there were some really good individual performances.

Lund-6: Couldn’t do much on the goals, but was excellent when she had a chance to make saves.

Pickett-7: The wind hampered her offensive game a bit but she was still good defensively for the most part.

Erceg-8: On a different day she makes the headed clearance on the first Spirit goal, but definitely made up for it on her fine header from Wang.

Holloway-6: Did decently deputizing at center back but will now probably find herself back on the bench for the foreseeable future, barring injury to another defender. If Louisville makes the playoffs spots by a point or two her contributions will have been extremely valuable.

Milliet-7: Maybe had her best defensive game ever at right back. Played a really smart game.

Pikkujämsä-8: Showed during an excellent first half passage where she out muscled several Spirit players that she is physically ready for this league.

Borges-8: Scored an excellent goal and won player of the match in the fan vote. I concur.

DeMelo-7: Drew a ton of fouls but might be better off in the long run trying to avoid so much contact.

McDonald-6: Had a good defensive performance, but didn’t get enough touches in the offensive half.

Kanu-6: Had to be subbed off early due to a head injury. After a few more games under her belt I expect her to be even more of a nuisance to opposing keepers.

Wang-8: Couldn’t have walked out and placed the ball any better than she did on the corner leading to Erceg’s goal.

Davis-7: Looks demonstrably stronger than last year. I hope she gets a look in for the Starting XI at some point.

Michael Shaw 3/31/23 Michael Shaw 3/31/23

Louisville v Washington Preview

The team practiced at Lynn Family stadium on Thursday morning, and while most of the media focus for the day was on the newly hired GM Ryan Dell, the players prepared for a crucial match against the Washington Spirit. Although the team is coming off of an uneven but ultimately pretty satisfactory performance in my opinion against Houston, Louisville looked like a much-improved team over the previous two iterations. It is now critical that the performances start bringing in 3 points.

I believe that Louisville is still missing a few critical pieces that will eventually be in the Starting XI. There was mostly good news on that front on Thursday. Thembi Kgatlana was a participant in practice, at least for the drills but did avoid any potential contact as she sat out the scrimmage portion of the practice. The same went for Jae Howell, who at last week’s open media practice was held out of all drills. Howell I’m told is scheduled for an additional fitness test prior to the match on Saturday, so she still has a chance to play. I expected her to still be listed as questionable on the availability report, with Kgatlana still listed as out.

As for the players who will surely be playing, Coach Björkegren singled out Savanna DeMelo as a player who looked better after reviewing last week’s game film. I am not really surprised by this as last year everybody got so used to her being the major engine in driving the team forward, that the match in Houston could have been seen as a letdown. On the contrary, I thought her (and let’s be really frank here) greatly improved teammates made her job much easier in the opener. She still got fouled more than was called, which is an increasingly troublesome trend. On the most recent episode of BTRD, Tom lamented that Pickett’s addition to the team meant that Sav wasn’t taking as many free kicks. I want to reserve judgement on that as I don’t recall any particular free kicks that Carson took being particularly set up for a DeMelo shot on goal. Pickett was really good last Sunday and hopefully this is the match where one of those crosses or corners finds a teammate’s head or boot (or thigh or knee or anything legal really).

Washington is dangerous and coming off a win. I am convinced that they are more like the champions of 2021 and not the 11th placed-team of 2022 (how in the world did they finish behind Orlando?). Coach Björkegren said of the Spirit that he expects their attack in this match to be more varied as they were very direct against the OL Reign. We no longer get the Rodman-Fox matchup, but the Rodman-Pickett matchup is just as compelling. Last year’s matches featured Fotmob Player-of-the-Match awards for each of them in their head-to-head matchups with Rodman getting it in the 3-3 draw in Cary and Pickett getting it in the 2-3 victory for the Courage in Washington. Pickett’s award also came with an assist to Erceg, so maybe we can hope for more of the same.

Michael Shaw 3/31/23 Michael Shaw 3/31/23

McDonald closes in on 200(ish) NWSL Appearances

The next time Jessica McDonald steps on the pitch in a Louisville jersey, it will be her 200th competitive appearances in the NWSL (according to me and possibly only me). Jess’s storied career has made stops in 7 cities (6 clubs: Red Stars, Reign, Thorns, Dash, Flash/Courage, and Louisville). There is a little debate about how to count NWSL appearances, but I stick to the rule that is there is something on the line, it counts. Oddly enough, the matches that tend to get omitted in the count are the playoff ones. Regardless, here is the math. Jess has appeared in:

179 League matches
10 Challenge Cup matches
10 playoff matches

I believe that NWSL will celebrate her 200 appearances in a few months once the league number hits 190 matches. Nobody reads this blog, but in case they do please don’t get mad at the league or club if they wait a while to celebrate McDonald.

On the eve of her 200th appearance by my count at least, I got the chance to talk with McDonald for a few minutes while the club was preparing for its home opener vs. the Washington Spirit.

Pre-NWSL Professional

McDonald was drafted by the WPS version of the Chicago Red Stars and spent time in the A-League before the NWSL was even a league. I asked her about her initial professional experience.

“It was a little scarier then because I was just a rookie in the WPS. I had gotten drafted by the Chicago Red Stars, and I am playing with Kate Markgraf, Megan Rapinoe, and Cristiane. My team was stacked, and I had some legends on my team. Obviously stepping in it was a little intimidating, but everyone welcomed me with open arms, so I was able to ease into that season pretty smoothly. At first it was definitely nerve wracking. I was just this youngster just trying to learn from the best at that point in my career. The transition of having the pro experience playing the WPS and also playing the W League in Australia before the NWSL came about made the transition much smoother because I knew exactly what to expect.”

179 NWSL League Appearances

The NWSL regular season is and always has been a grind. For McDonald, last season proved a particularly challenging one for her for a few reasons. Ninth place was the lowest that McDonald had ever finished in the table and at times she was the only true NWSL veteran on the pitch which meant that she felt the burden of tough season probably more than anyone else on the team. To help recover, instead of taking a well deserved break McDonald returned to Australia. I asked her why she made that decision.

“The reason why it was an easy decision for me to go down to Australia again was to gain some confidence. I lacked a lot of confidence last season and that's never happened to me before, so I needed to get somewhat of a boost and have fun and fall in love with the game again.”

If you watched the opener vs. Houston, you saw a refreshed player that almost scored a terrific first-touch goal.

“Hurt my pride a little bit on that one when it was touched by Jane (Campbell). What a great goal that would have been.”

Since there have been so many league matches in her career, I asked if one stood out. She picked a 2014 match against the Boston Breakers because it contained a very memorable goal for her.

“One of my favorite goals happened in 2014 playing for Portland Thorns and we were playing against Boston Breakers at the time in Portland. It was my 14th career goal in the NWSL. I will never forget because the buildup was just one of my favorites.”

10 NWSL Challenge Cup Appearances

Cup matches in the NWSL didn’t exist until 2020 and were really created out of necessity more than anything else. There was also a Fall Series in 2020, for which Jess opted out. 2020 was a tough year for everyone, so asked her about that first cup experience.

“2020 was weird coming in from Olympic qualifiers and the She Believes Cup. When preseason happens, I'm transitioning into NC Courage, and then all of a sudden everything just shut down. It was almost refreshing when everything shut down for me, because I was actually able to take a physical break and at the time I was juggling club and country, which was a lot. I was able to rest my body a little bit, but then they're like, ‘Hey, we're going to play the Challenge Cup in Utah. We're going to be in this bubble. We're supporting moms. You can bring whoever you want in and we'll take care of you.” I'm like, let's do it. I was actually really excited about the challenge. It didn't fall our way when I was with the Courage at the time (ed: the Courage won all four preliminary matches and was top of the table but lost in the quarterfinals to Portland) but honestly, it was a very interesting experience.”

On the bright side, it let her spend more time with her son, Jeremiah.

“I opted out of the Fall Series just to kind of have a mental and another physical break because I knew at some point things are going to open up again. I was able to spend time with my kid, quality time that I really hadn't gotten since he was a baby. Those are times that we're going to remember together. He was being home schooled at the time. That was a refreshing bonding time that my kid and I had. I wasn't just ‘Mom’, I was also his teacher, which was kind of crazy. It was just good quality time with my kid and that was the most important thing.”

10 NWSL Playoff Appearances

McDonald is a 3-time NWSL Champion with the Flash/Courage franchise and was the 2018 Championship MVP with the Courage scoring a brace. As Jess hopes to add to her playoff appearances this season with Louisville, I asked her about her most memorable match beside the MVP performance:

“Playing at home for the championship in 2019 in North Carolina, just winning a championship at home really hit home for all of as a squad. It was an incredible season for us and winning 4-0 against Chicago Red Stars, pretty much our rivals at the time was just the cherry on top. Being able to win a championship at home, not a lot of people can say that.”

I want to thank Jessica for spending a few minutes with me and congratulate her on her upcoming 200th* NWSL appearance.

Michael Shaw 3/27/23 Michael Shaw 3/27/23

Houston 0 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts

Houston and Louisville played to a fairly entertaining draw, with neither team really controlling the match. It was a pretty typically opening match with both teams looking disjointed at times, which was to be expected. Here are my takeaways

Louisville drew 8 times last season, so in order to make the playoffs this season they are going to have to turn loses to draws and draws to wins. However, last night seemed like a good result for an early season road trip to an opponent that made the playoffs last season. I think a good barometer for making the playoffs in this league is getting half the available points, so in the 30-36 range. Six home wins and four road wins would do the trick in my opinion, so a road point against a top half side isn’t go to derail you on that path.
Louisville is at the stage in development (as most NWSL teams are) of being a collection of players not yet playing as a unit. Last night was a good demonstration of the team being pretty much equal to the sum of its parts. The encouraging piece is that individually, the new and returning players showed their quality. It would be too much to ask at this point for the new pieces to fit seamlessly into the team, especially with seven starters that were not on last year’s opening match squad. However, the lack of cohesion is what stood out to me. If a goal was going to come in the match on Sunday evening, it was going to be a piece of individual brilliance, and not through any team engineered move. Kanu has two great chances, but couldn’t put her first half effort on frame, and had her brilliant shot in the second half saved by Campbell. Ary Borges couldn’t put her shot on goal either. McDonald tried to create a few more team-oriented chances, but her best effort was a first-time shot that produced another good save from Campbell. Pickett put the ball in dangerous places especially on Borges’ effort, but there wasn’t anyone there to get the decisive goal. All-in-all, there just weren't enough players on the same page from an attacking perspective to make Houston pay.
Conversely on the defensive side, Louisville ultimately put in a very solid performance. It just isn’t a Louisville match without some kind of heroics from Katie Lund whose double save about midway through the second half was the highlight of the match. It was followed closely by Lund and Milliet coming together to smother a loose ball in the box in the first half with Lo basically covering the ball with her legs until Katie could grab it. As great as Lund was, the center backs really caught my eye. Rebecca Holloway had about as bad a start to her stint in Louisville as you could have. She went straight into the starting lineup and made some glaring errors and then pretty much spent the rest of the season on the bench or out of the squad. I didn’t think she would make this year’s roster, let alone start the opener. It wasn’t a perfect match for her. There was a least a few times her inexperience at center back appeared to cause her to want to sit deep when she needed to push up, but after the first 30 minutes or so she appeared to settle in and got a clean sheet for her efforts. She is a good story for perseverance and working hard. She doesn’t start if Howell isn’t injured, but she also doesn’t start if hadn’t put in the work and impressed the coaches enough to get the nod over Murray. Once Howell and Lester are both healthy, we may not see her start again but on this night, she was good enough playing out of her preferred left back position and that’s all you can ask for in a squad player. Well done, Rebecca!
Abby Erceg. I don’t know really how to say much more, but it was the most assured performance by a center back ever for Louisville and I don’t know if it’s even close. I feel much better about the back line after seeing her out there. There wasn’t anything fancy, but you don’t want or need anything fancy on the backline. She was captain on the night and I don’t think her behavior will change at all once Howell assumes the armband. She is like having bonus captain.
All of the debutants had nice first matches. Elli Pikkujämsä got a little winded at the end and required substitution but didn’t look like the environment was too big for her. Borges and Kanu both impressed too, but will be disappointed that they didn’t finish their chances. One of the things that I am really excited about is that I think the burden on DeMelo and Howell will be lifted a bit and therefore will allow them to have even better sophomore seasons.
One of the criticisms of Coach Björkegren last year was that he didn’t use his subs enough. I didn’t agree with that criticism last year because most of the substitutes he would have made last year would have weakened the team in the close matches where he was criticized. This season will be different, and you could see that every substitution last night probably increased the team’s chances of finding the breakthrough goal, even though it didn’t ultimately come. I watched practice on Friday, and he scrimmaged with the starting lineup he put out on Sunday night. Within the first 15 minutes of the scrimmage, the starters had given up two counter-attacking goals and I thought he might have gotten it wrong with his lineup. Fortunately, he is the coach and not me because I might have panicked and told Borges to sit deep. He got the lineup and tactics right for this one. The other team is always going to get their chances, but Louisville never seemed disorganized and always seemed dangerous in attack.

Michael Shaw 3/26/23 Michael Shaw 3/26/23

Houston 0 Louisville 0 Player Ratings

Both teams had their chances that in a match latrr in the season they probably take, but all-in-all Louisville is probably happier with the point. This team looks vastly improved at first blush.

Lund-7: Same old Kaite making save after fantastic save especially her double in the 69th minute.

Pickett-8: As advertised, but only missed someone there to finish one of her great crosses or corners

Erceg-8: Assured and in control. A true professional performance.

Holloway-7: Slightly out of place in the beginning, but much better in the second half.

Milliet-8: I laughed at all of the preseason prognostications that didn't have her in the XI. She is the conissuer's choice. Made a fantastic “save” by putting her body on the line in the first half.

Pikkujämsä-6: Made a decent debut. Hopefully the sub was precautionary.

Borges-7: Had a really good chance to score in her debut. Looked assured in possession.

DeMelo-7: Had a typically solid game for her. This club won't need her to do as much, so hopefully that frees her up to be even more dangerous.

McDonald-7: Had a great first-time shot fantastically saved by Campbell.

Kanu-7: Will score bunches but didn’t have her shooting boots on tonight. Still was very impressive.

Wang-6: Didn't show her full capability in this match, but still had her moments.

Michael Shaw 3/24/23 Michael Shaw 3/24/23

Houston v Louisville Preview

If anyone is new to my previews (it’s a pretty big assumption on my part that anybody reads them), or if you just need a reminder these “previews” are really only previews in the loosest sense. I mostly just write about things that pop into my head around the same time that Louisville is scheduled to play a match. I usually go to practice (not a great experience today, but typically quite fun) and then write about whatever that inspires.

When Coach Björkegren and I talked during the first open practice, he told me that his goal with any first match is to get the players ready to play 90 minutes, or as close to it as possible. With this season pushing the Challenge Cup to midseason, it’s once again important to be ready to go for the opening match. I am too lazy to do the research, but I would tend to believe that opening on the road is a particularly difficult challenge as the road-trip-grind is another challenge that you need to prepare yourself to endure during the season. It probably helped that Louisville spent time in Portland to simulate both the matches and the road trip.

The first question out the gate for Coach Björkegren from me was basically “is the team ready for 90?” In typical coach speak he wasn’t fully committal, but he isn’t going to go on record saying one way or the other. I do know that he did everything in his power to get them prepared. The better question is how prepared is Houston compared to Louisville. I know (from Bekki Morgan because you can’t really find anything online) that the Dash played the Current and the Wave in San Diego. I think we then have to assume equal preparedness. Houston’s new coach Sam Laity managed the Reign during a six-match stint on an interim basis and wet 4-0-2, so not a bad record. Everyone knows that Houston is full of attacking talent, so Louisville’s back line will have to be ready from the start. That is probably the greatest risk for the first match. Jaelin Howell didn’t participate in practice today and might be listed as questionable for Sunday. That means that someone else could be deployed in central midfield. The one good thing is that Louisville can be flexible this season plugging holes. The bad thing is that the team just hasn’t played together enough for the hold plugging to go smoothly. Since I attend practices, I don’t make predictions related to the starting lineup because I pretty much know what it’s going to be, minus a late injury or late return to fitness. What I will say is that Louisville will be deploying a back line that has zero experience playing together when it matters, so that isn’t a great recipe for success right out of the gate. I would caution against putting too much stock in these first few matches, positive of negative. There will surely be 5 players listed on the injury report when it comes out this weekend and they are 5 very important players to this team. The good news is that other than Nadia Nadim, it’s fairly easy to see the other 4 be ready in April.

In other relevant news, Björkegren named Jae Howell the club captain, with Abby Erceg named to be captain for Sunday if Howell can’t go. I like the naming of a single club captain, with vice captains listed in ranked order underneath the club captain. Tyler Greever asked about the reasoning behind naming one of the younger players captain. Björkegren said that it was something he had done before, and I like the idea of giving the captaincy to a younger player who is committed to Louisville. I am also a fan of making either your CDM or one of your CBs the captain as they tend to be the ones who see the game the best.

Michael Shaw 2/26/23 Michael Shaw 2/26/23

Launching “The Vineyard”

I am a serious person…but I try not to take myself too seriously. I abhor platitudes and hyperbole, but I can be as silly as the next person. Back during December, I went on a 100% soccer embargo (the reasons are too boring to go into), so I was able to let my mind wander to other areas where I might have a creative outlet. I thought “it might be fun to make wine.” I also thought it might be fun to name the wine after Louisville players. That’s about as much thought as I put into it. I am also prone to overthinking, so I didn’t want to talk myself out of an idea that I thought might be fun.

After getting all of the necessary materials as a gift from my wife, I started the process of making wine at home. About 4-5 weeks later, I had a batch. It turned out to be a decent wine, even if I am not a connoisseur. I told a few friends about it, and Tom Benson offered to write reviews of the wines based on the player selected for each batch. Tom is a fun-loving person who likes to think creatively, so I made him the “sommelier” of my at-home vineyard. He gets to taste the wine and write a tongue-in-cheek review. He tested the first batch (a few days before it was technically finished) and wrote a review which you can read here. The plan going forward is to dedicate each batch to a player or someone associated with the club. During the season, this will likely be a player-of-the-month type dedication. During the offseason, I might choose someone else.

What did I learn? Winemaking is fairly easy and fun. I also learned that the finishing agent contains shellfish, so I have to remember to remind people of that fact when they taste it. Check out these wine allergies if you are curious. From the article:

“This wine ingredient is made up of the exoskeletons of crab, shellfish, shrimp and other crustaceans. Chitosan is a sucrose polymer and often used as a finishing agent in white wines. Chitosan can be especially problematic for wine lovers who are allergic to shellfish.

There’s a good chance that the wine you’re drinking contains chitosan if you experience tingling in your mouth, dizziness, itching, eczema or abdominal pain. An individual may need to seek immediate emergency treatment if allergy symptoms are extreme enough and lead to anaphylaxis. It is especially important to know the ingredients of your wine if you have a known shellfish allergy.”

Almost all home kits contain chitosan.

If you are curious if you can purchase any wine, unfortunately the answer is no. I don’t think I am legally allowed to sell any. However, if we cross paths and you are interested I would be happy to gift you a bottle (while supplies last).

Michael Shaw 2/16/23 Michael Shaw 2/16/23

Preseason Check-In

For those who have never attended a practice, preseason or otherwise, let me break down how one of Louisville's practices typically goes. The practices always start with warm-up exercises led by Julie Twaddle. Coach Twaddle almost always has a fun activity to integrate into the warm-ups, today’s activity being your basic relay race, but last year one practice had a quite memorable wheelbarrow race. Others have included shooting drills integrated into the activity. After that, the assistant coach (last year Mario Sanchez and this season Bev Yanez) will run the players through a more technical passing or dribbling drill. Once that is complete, Coach Kim typically conducts a tactical session either before a full scrimmage or in the case of today’s practice, a modified movement drill to work on the tactical lesson. After that the practice typically ends with a shooting drill or short-field scrimmage session which is focused on quick ball movement. Today’s practice ended with running, but as the season progresses this is typically phased out.

I give you all of that background to let you get a sense of the frankly mundane experience of observing a practice. It really does take a trained eye to be able to pull anything of value out of it. I don’t have that trained eye, but I will share some things that were either plainly obvious or communicated to me.

I won’t ever say a bad word against Mario Sanchez, but the players have really taken to Bev Yanez. Sav DeMelo commented after practice that she has learned lots from her in a short amount of time. People around the club who have been around the practices with Bev on staff say that there is an added “crispness” to Louisville’s practices this preseason. I won’t divulge the technique that the players were working on today, but Bev was able to demonstrate exactly what she wanted her players to do and achieve.
The team is in standard preseason form (more on that in the next bullet). I’ve been told that Gotham just started practice a few days ago, while Louisville has been going since January. With the Challenge Cup moved to the middle of the league season, I was also told to look for some teams to be more prepared than others to start the season in late March. Louisville looks well on their way.
However, there were plenty of loose passes and missteps to call this team “ready for the season”. One player who does look absolutely ready is Wang Shaung. When she catches a ball with her foot in just the right way, it sounds different (and more deadly) than just about any other player on the pitch. No particular player looked off the pace, but very few looked to be anywhere near mid-season form other than Wang.
I spotted Thembi Katlana off the pitch, but she still isn’t ready for full contact practice. I was also told that Emina Ekic is out of her walking boot, but still scheduled to miss all of preseason. Many of the International players were absent too due to international commitments. Two things will happen once everyone is healthy and back in the country. The team should be able to do a full scrimmage and we could start to see how flexible this roster really is. I asked Sav today about the number of players who are comfortable taking free kick and if that group had discussed how to handle it. Sav thinks that the players have their favorite spots on the pitch where they like to take a free kick and those spots will likely dictate who takes it.
Monaghan looks to be a player of tremendous flexibility. Today she was utilized on the left wing, but was also started at right back for the scrimmage vs. the Spirit. She also rocked a pair of slides from Target after practice.

Waterlogged boots are a hazard of a mid-winter rainy practice. The club enjoyed its time in Melbourne, FL so much that the plan is to return in the future. I like the idea of getting in as many practices as possible early in the season and the Louisville winter isn’t often conducive for that.

Louisville travels to Indy this weekend to face the Red Stars. Expect more scrimmages to be announced soon to occur in March.

Michael Shaw 2/3/23 Michael Shaw 2/3/23

Pre-Season Roster Analysis

Louisville appears (for now) to have settled on its pre-season roster with the addition of Uchenna Kanu from Tigres of Liga MX Femenil. As part of the transfer, Riley Parker was sent to the Tigres until the end of the Clausura part of the season. Many Latin American sports leagues use Apertura and Clausura tournaments to split the seasons in half, with Apertura meaning “opening” and Clausura meaning “closing”. If you recall the Women’s Cup from August last season, you will remember that Club América looked to be in mid-season form in their matches, which they obviously were.

There has been quite a lot of buzz around the incoming players to Louisville with Jeff Kassouf of the Equalizer saying that the club has made its case to have “the most interesting NWSL offseason roster build”. Many of the fans on Twitter are in pre-season ridiculous mode and predicting great things for the club. On the other hand, I have been called a “downer” and “pedantic to the point of erasing the fun of it” when it comes to avoiding hyperbole.

I do think this roster on the whole is better than the roster that ending the 2022 season. In fact, I am probably more bullish on the left side of the defense than most. The numbers (that I care about) say that both Pickett and Erceg are an upgrade over Fox and Bonner. Fox is a better defender but may never reach Pickett's offensive production. Erceg is an upgrade over Bonner, not as much as you might think, but still a clear one. I am less bullish on the incoming international talent. They may all turn out to be fantastic, but its one thing to perform in the Liga Mx and another to perform in the NWSL.

I am a true believer that “league” and “team” matter when evaluating players. Uchenna Kanu’s numbers are eye-popping, but the Mexican and Swedish leagues are not quite the NWSL. She may eventually score lots of goals for Louisville, but she should be given some time to acclimate and adjust. Ary Borges should be given that same learning curve. I believe that Thembi Kgatlana may follow the Wang Shuang curve in that Wang looked immediately to be NWSL ready based on her small sample size, but that also isn’t a guarantee. As for Elli Pikkujämsä, I would urge patience and caution because in her career she surely hasn’t faced the attacking power that the NWSL has to offer. However, if all 4 international players hit the ground running, it could be a special year in Louisville.

Roster Mathematics

By my count, there are 29 players schedules to be in pre-season camp. Beall and Bloomer count against the roster limit of 26, but won’t be in camp as they are finishing up their loans in the A League. That leaves 31 players competing for 26 spots on the initial roster. On the Roster Tracker I have Riley Parker listed as well bringing the total to 32. She could theoretically join the club after her loan expires in June (or extend it for the Apertura portion of the season). Let’s take a look at who is a lock to be on the opening match roster, and who might not make it.

Goalkeepers: (1 lock, 3 TBD, 1 Cut)

Katie Lund has the number 1 jersey, the NWSL single season save record, and a contract through 2025. She is a lock of locks. However, Bloomer, Beall, and Daugherty could all see transfers or loans. Hillary Beall is having an excellent season in the A League and captained Western United’s first nine matches. After a rough start, Jordyn Bloomer has turned things around and has kept 2 clean sheets in her last four matches. They both are too talented to be the 3rd goalkeeper on the roster. The team has a couple of options: transfer either Beall of Bloomer and keep Daugherty, or keep both Beall and Bloomer and cut Daugherty. The A League runs through April 30 and the summer transfer window is likely to open in June for all clubs, so it wouldn’t surprise me if a deal is made (or has already been made) to see one of them depart in the summer window. The team also has trialist Olivia Sekany on the pre-season roster, so she has a shot to beat out Daugherty and if the offers are good enough for both Beall and Bloomer, join Lund on the roster. My prediction: The club will carry (3) goalkeepers to start the season, but I am not willing to say which two will join Lund.

Defenders: (5 locks, 1 virtual lock, 4 TBD)

The four new defenders Pickett, Erceg, Pikkujämsä, and Monaghan are locks. Monaghan is so versatile, that she could play anywhere, but will likely be used on defense. Lester is a lock and I believe Satara Murray is as close as you can get without being guaranteed. The one thing working against her is that she could be gone for the World Cup break. She would be good cover for Pikkujämsä if she doesn’t make the trip. Holloway is at tremendous risk. She was never really given much of a look after her 2 frankly poor starts. She was only given 86 minutes after her two starts (which she didn’t finish) and 58 of those came in the disastrous 0-4 loss to the Red Stars in August. She is cautionary tale for a player switching leagues. Wyne who was signed as international replacement player faired better, but will be up against trialist Trinity Watson, and draft pick Bri Martinez. Prior to Pickett and Erceg joining I would have given the upper hand to Wyne, but with a little more stability I say Martinez could beat her out. In the end they both survive. My prediction: The club will carry (8) defenders to start the season, with Murray, Wyne and Martinez joining the locks.

Midfielders: (6 locks, 1 TBD)

This is probably the easiest section to predict. Howell, Milliet, Chidiac, DeMelo, Wang, Borges are locks. Taylor Malham is the only real debate, but Racing carried 7 midfielders for most of the season last year. My prediction: The club will carry (7) midfileders to start the season, with Malham making the team.

Forwards: (4 locks, and a ton of options)

This one is tricky. Kgatlana, Kanu, McDonald, and Nadim are locks, but Nadim and Kgatlana may not be fully match fit to start the season. I had Davis penciled in as the leading scorer at the beginning of pre-season, and now I’m not sure she is in the Starting XI. Davis and Ekic both could feasibly be loaned out if this wasn’t a World Cup season. In a way-too-soon prediction, I see Davis as an appealing option for an expansion team next year. There is value in having them both on the roster this year, so Davis and Ekic will easily make the cut. Now the difficult decision here is who makes it out of Goins, Kayla Fischer, and Jaydyn Edwards. It’s possible that all three do and Malham is cut with Goins being used in her true MF/F role. My prediction: The club will carry (8) forwards to start the season, with Goins’ flexibility winning out and the winner of the Fischer/Edwards competition making the team.

There is also Coack Björkegren’s stated desire for a small squad to contend with, but I say that he bites the bullet and carries 26, with an eye on the expansion draft next season.

Michael Shaw 1/27/23 Michael Shaw 1/27/23

Restricted Free Agency Coming in 2024, Impacting 2023

One of the items that Coach Kim Björkegren discussed with the media on Wednesday this week, was the departure of Emily Fox. While her departure was definitely a sad event for fans of Louisville, it actually is a really good thing for the league and the players. Emily would have been one of the first players and probably the biggest name to be impacted by the new restricted free agency rule that in going into place in 2024. In the CBA, restricted free agency is available to “any Player whose SPA is expiring or who does not have an existing SPA with NWSL and who has at least three (3) NWSL Service Years.” If Fox had not be transferred to the Courage or signed a new contract, she would have no longer had an SPA with Louisville at the end of the 2023 season. In fact, as of today she is still eligible for restricted free agency in the 2024 season unless the Courage extend her current contract.

For the sake of using Emily as a test case, let’s assume she doesn’t sign an extension with North Carolina. The way that I interpret the restricted free agency section of the CBA, players can start negotiating with a new team mid-season. The CBA states “Players who will become eligible commencing with the 2024 League Season may begin negotiating a new SPA after the Roster Freeze date of the prior year.” For reference, the roster freeze date for the 2022 season was August 26th. I would expect that date to occur at a similar point this season. Therefore, if Fox decides that she isn’t having a fantastic season in North Carolina, she can begin negotiating with a new team with a significant number of games remaining in the season. If she does reach an agreement with a new team (let’s say the Spirit for the sake of argument), this part of the CBA kicks in: “the Player’s current team has an opportunity to match an offer that the Player receives from another Team in salary, any bonus, and duration. Thus, if the Player’s current Team matches an offer from the Player’s desired new Team within seven (7) days of the Team receiving written notice of the offer, the current Team will have the right to retain the Player.”

What I am not super clear on is the scenario where a player’s offer isn’t matched. With the roster frozen I assume that the player couldn’t leave, but you could see a scenario where a player like Fox is on Carolina’s roster for a playoff run, but already agreed to be a Spirit player in the next season. You see this often between leagues, but I can’t think of where this would happen (officially) in the same league, although it does happen with the details not becoming public under after the season.

Therefore, it’s in everyone’s best interest to not have the above scenario occur. I believe we will see more movement in the summer transfer window to avoid contracts being run down to the end of their terms. For Louisville, the restricted free agency clause only impacts Emina Ekic going into the 2024 season. Pickett, McDonald, and Nadim are full free agents after this season unless a contract extension is made. If Monaghan only ends up signing a one-year deal, she would be eligible for restricted free agency too, but I don’t see here signing anything less than a two-year deal. I expect a busy transfer window for the NWSL in the summer.

Michael Shaw 1/25/23 Michael Shaw 1/25/23

Who will score for Louisville in 2023? (Updated)

Taking into account the recent additions of Paige Monaghan, Carson Pickett, and Abby Erceg, I updated this piece from earlier in the month.

Louisville scored 22 goals (plus one own goal) in the 2022 season. If the team is going to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, they will have to maintain at least a neutral goal differential. Based on the last few seasons, there has been at least one team that has made the playoff with a zero goal differential. As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t expect much immediate improvement on the defensive end of things, so based on last season’s performance, Louisville probably needs to score goals in the 35 to 40 range. To keep things semi-realistic, I will use the bottom end of that range to set goal targets for players on the current roster. I don’t expect the team to draft a real goal-scoring threat at number 4, due to the need for interior defense, but the club also needs goals so it wouldn’t be a total shock to draft another forward at 4. Past the first round, I don’t see many players making a first-year contribution. I will start with the players that will need to contribute the most goals and work my way to those who should be looking to chip in a goal or two.

Kirsten Davis (6-8 goals)

Kirsten was recently married, and the official team twitter account hinted at a name change to “Kirsten Wright”, but for now I will still refer to as Davis as that is how she is officially listed on the club roster. With all of the mounting injuries at forward including the recent announcement on Ekic’s injury, Davis will almost certainly start to begin Louisville's season. Jess McDonald has mentioned several times that she likes playing with Davis up front, so will be looking to supply her heavily during the early part of the season. Kirsten scored 2 goals in 18 appearances last year, so this would be quite a significant step up in production. However, the club really needs to find a reliable goal scorer early in the season so expect Davis to get plenty of opportunities and service from her teammates.

Jess McDonald (4-6 goals)

Jess’s unselfishness may work against he in the early part of the season if Davis isn’t immediately able to start scoring consistently. McDonald looked to pass before shooting several times during matches last year but may just have to be a little greedier this year, especially early in the season. If she can keep her overall goal contributions (goals and assists) in the 8-10 range, it will matter less if those 8-10 are goals vs. assists.

Nadia Nadim (3-5 goals)

When Nadia is healthy, she scores. However, recovering from a second knee injury in two years may again limit her appearances for Racing. Last season, there was a bit more transparency into a timetable for her return. I don’t recall seeing any speculation on when she might return in 2023 or if she will return. My money is on a late season return and a return to her scoring form. Let’s just hope it’s not a case of too little, too late.

Thembi Kgatlana (2-4 goals)

There is no real timetable yet for Kgatlana’s return either. One has to assume that since her injury occurred prior to Nadim’s that she would return to competitive action sooner, but that surely isn't guaranteed. However, she was brought in to score goals, so we will just have to assume that is what she will do. I think she is skilled enough to score more but factoring in the limits of returning from an injury and getting readjusted to the NWSL, I think 3 goals is the target.

Emina Ekic (2-4 goals)

Ekic found some real goal-scoring form in Australia, so her injury is a real shame. When she returns to action, I think we can all agree that this needs to be her breakout year. Looking on the bright side, Ekic will probably be reintegrated into the team as a sub when she returns from injury. I like her as a game changing substitute, so this may give her the opportunity to pick right back up where she left off in Australia. Look for her to push for a starting role as her fitness increases.

Sav DeMelo (2-4 goals)

DeMelo scored 4 goals last season and if she can improve on that total, the goal scoring burden on her teammates may lessen and subsequently Louisville may find themselves in better position in the table. However, it seems unfair to demand 4 goals from her every season. She will likely take her fair share of free kicks again, but Wang may also find herself in the mix on those. This may be the first time I have ever written this next sentence, but it surely won’t be the last. This team goes as far as Sav DeMelo goes.

Parker Goins (1-3 goals)

I am still really high on Parker Goins. I think she has the ability to score goals and change games. Through injuries, she may get her chance early this season, especially in a 4-3-3 formation. We have seen that Coach Björkegren will have Lauren Milliet on the pitch somewhere, so Parker will have to show in the preseason that she is ready to force the team into a formation that pushes Milliet into the midfield or (lord help us) defense. I have a feeling that if and when the first goal goes in for Parker, the floodgates could open. Alternatively, if she struggles for minutes again someone else unexpected will have to step up and score more goals than anticipated.

Wang Shuang (1-3 goals)

I thought Wang was impressive in her brief spell with the team last year. She didn’t score in the league, but scored in the Women’s Cup, so we know that she has goal in her. I don’t think a free kick goal is beyond her either. Her goal contributions and attacking influence might show themselves more through build-up play, so I think she will be involved in way more goals than she is ultimately credited. A preseason in Louisville will do her loads of good.

Alex Chidiac (1-3 goals)

I feel like Alex’s opportunities to score will come from pieces of individual brilliance, which she has shown from time to time. She has two goals and an assist in six appearances in the A-League, so maybe she can bring that form back with her to Louisville. I think she would be delighted with 3 goals, but the NWSL defensives are a little sturdier that what she is experiencing again in the A-League, so one or two goals is more likely.

Carson Pickett (0-2 goals)

Assists are her game, but she did score a goal last year. She might not put in as many assists this year, but I did add a goal each to Jess’s and Kirsten’s projections to account for her addition.

Ary Borges (0-2 goals)

My prediction for Borges is a complete shot in the dark. I don’t really know how the team will deploy her. I have seen comments that she may sit deep with Howell. That could open DeMelo up to attack more, but your midfielders should be looking to find themselves in scoring positions from time to time regardless of how deep they are sitting. It’s really hard to be very sure of how she might contribute until I see her in at least a practice setting.

Lauren Milliet (0-2 goals)

Lauren will surely be on the pitch somewhere, but whether that is in a position with more attacking duties than defensive ones is a big question mark. My opinion is that she belongs in midfield, but necessity might dictate that she finds herself on the wing in a defensive role again. Either way, she isn’t a pure scorer so a goal or two would be a fine contribution.

Jae Howell (0-2 goals)

Howell definitely looked better as the season progressed, but in my opinion that was in line with her fully embracing her defensive responsibilities. She is still good for a shot from distance and will be a threat on corners. It’s not beyond imagination to see her with 4 to 5 goals, but 1 or 2 seems like the right expectation.

Elli Pikkujämsä (0-2 goals)

This could just as easily be “central defender” goals, but Pikkujämsä seems slightly more likely to score based on her previous record. Murray or a yet-to-be-signed-or-drafted defender might find herself in the right position to score a goal, but these aren’t goals that the team should be counting on.

Abby Erceg (0-2 goals)

Abby in her career has always been good for a goal a season. With the addition of her and Carson Pickett, I think they will team up to score on at least one corner.

Summary

If everyone hits the midpoint of my targets, that will put the team at 37 goals. This being the NWSL, the odd own goal may help out here or there to make it 38 or 39 goals. This team will surely need that many goals to compete in 2023, but the addition of Pickett and Erceg may result in a positive goal difference this season.

Michael Shaw 1/25/23 Michael Shaw 1/25/23

First Practice

First of all, let me clearly state:

It was way too windy and cold for my liking. I would like to present today’s weather as Exhibit A in the case of never moving the NWSL schedule to match the FIFA calendar. Some people may be willing to endure this weather to watch soccer, but not me. I endured about 10 minutes of practice before begging off and leaving Bekki Morgan to observe. Prior to my chickening out, we did get to hear from Coach Björkegren and Thembi Kgatlana. Here are the items of note from Kim:

The team will have a couple of weeks of training prior to heading to Florida. The pre-Florida training will likely be all fitness and conditioning training with tactics coming during the Florida trip.
In his time with Carson Pickett in Cyprus he witnessed what we all witnessed from her which is a deadly left foot on set pieces, especially corners.
He is mostly content with the roster as it sits, but is looking for one to two more moves to bolster attack.

Thembi Kgatlana shared that she is closer than expected to a return to action, setting April as the target date. She also commented that she enjoyed working with a roster of young talent in that it might give the team an advantage as their opponents might not always know what to expect. She was also cagey about how she might be deployed on this team, citing surprise as one of the elements in her personal arsenal. While not a full participant in practice, she was kicking the ball around before practice and appeared to be moving normally.

Michael Shaw 1/23/23 Michael Shaw 1/23/23

Louisville Trades Fox for NCC Defenders Erceg and Pickett

*Courtesy Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images*

Louisville announced the trade of Emily Fox to the North Carolina Courage for defenders Abby Erceg and Carson Pickett. I will start with a full disclosure: Carson Pickett is my favorite player in the NWSL excluding the women who played for Louisville. This means my “analysis” of the trade may be colored by my thoughts on her. Erceg and Pickett provide one thing that Louisville certainly lacks: experience. Pickett is just about the best attacking defender in the league in my opinion (backed up by American Soccer Analysis’s Goals Added statistic). Erceg adds height to the team as well, standing at 5’10.

Taken at face value, this is a really good deal for Louisville. Using the Goals Added stat, Pickett ranked 5th in the league and Erceg 16th in goals added, while Fox was at number18 which was the best showing for Louisville. Incidentally to those overlooking (not me!) the departure of Gemma Bonner, she was Louisville's next highest player at 24th. In my opinion, for all of Fox’s many great qualities, she needed to contribute more on the offensive end. If she hits her full potential in North Carolina (which I say is more than likely), expect here to be getting in the 5 to 6 goal contribution range each year. However, as of the announcement only Erceg even has an option for 2024 for either club. This may be a single year deal for all involved. This is why the deal got done in my opinion. None of the players involved were especially close to extending their contracts with their current clubs. At the end of the day, this makes sense for all parties involved.

Except…

Carson Pickett was available in the expansion draft for Louisville. He-who-must-not-be-named has screwed us once again. It was entirely within the realm of possibility that year-one Louisville could have seen Pickett at left back and Fox at right back. In essence Louisville traded their first ever draft pick (the number one draft pick in 2021) for a player they theoretically could have selected in the expansion draft and a 33 year-old center back. Looking at it from that perspective, it’s not great value for the number one overall pick.

But Louisville is still cleaning up the mess left by the front office and original coaching staff (excluding Segio Gonzalez who for now gets a pass from me). I am not going to rehash the continued uncovering of bad actors as this club, but I would advise fans to be ready for anything when it comes to the (mis)management of this club.

Michael Shaw 1/13/23 Michael Shaw 1/13/23

Five New Players Join Louisville on Draft Day

After the draft day was completed yesterday, there were multiple key storylines: 1) Louisville still has no real proven solution at center back, but now has an additional $205,000 to address that need, 2) the club could convert new addition Paige Monaghan to defender (she is listed as a forward in the defender section of the roster with a squad number of 0), and 3) there are 4 new draftees with varying probabilities of making the opening day squad.

Let’s start with the money. The Washington Spirit couldn’t wait to give its money to Louisville and traded up to 28th at the expense of $30,000 to move up one spot to take a goalkeeper (for reasons apparently beyond my comprehension). Then Washington purchased Louisville's fourth round pick outright for $25,000. Maybe the team thought that money was cursed (the Spirit seemed to perform bizarrely poorly for a reigning champion). The bigger windfall came from Gotham when they sent Monoghan and $150,000 and an international spot for the 4th pick. Coach Björkegren all but said it was Madril or bust, “In our preparation leading up to today, there was only one center back we wanted, but on draft day, it became clear we weren’t going to have that chance at No. 4.” It’s unclear if the club gets to use any of the $205,000 in allocation money to cover its recent $200,000 fine. Regardless, the official club website doesn’t reflect that Louisville got the message (JOC’s mug still prominently displayed as the picture link as of Friday morning.).

I will assume that even an organization as inept as the NWSL won’t let you pay a fine with Monopoly money, so the windfall should likely go toward player acquisition.

Paige Monoghan will almost certainly be penciled into the starting XI for Louisville to start the season, but the big question will be “In what postition?”. The club’s second 2nd round pick, Brianna Martinez could fill a need at left or right back, so Monoghan could start the season in a more attacking role. Just as easily, Monoghan could find herself in a role as left or right back opposite Emily Fox. Regardless of how the team ultimately uses her, she seems like she could be useful as a starter or coming off the bench to add a scoring threat. She doesn’t have a great goal scoring record, but did score 3 last year, one as a substitute. Expect news on her contract terms very soon.

There is a very real possibility that none of this year’s draftee make the NWSL roster, but I will try to avoid being too much of a downer. Currently, the roster stands at 24 players under contract (including Monoghan) and Björkegren has shown himself to be absolutely comfortable with that number. That means that a draft pick is likely going to have to beat out someone on the current roster. In my mind, Martinez has the best shot. Rebecca Holloway was given next to no shot when she joined Louisville last year, but really didn’t impress in the playing time she was given. I think she might be at risk of losing her roster spot. However, she is using an international spot and that could complicate things as I am not clear on the roster rules for those. Wyne could be the other player at risk. As for the forwards that Louisville drafted, they might find their short-term options rosier than Martinez due to the number of injuries at the forward position. Kgatlana and Nadim seem to be progressing in rehab, but with no timetable. Ekic is probably closer to returning, but not guaranteed to be ready to start the season. Louisville will definitely need players in training camp, so Jadyn Edwards, Riley Parker, and Kayla Fischer will get their chances. From a roster spot perspective, Malham and Goins may be at risk, but I predict that duo from Arkansas hold off the challenge from the new draftees and keep their spots. If Kgatlana and Nadim find themselves healthy by World Cup time in July/August, they will be off to Australia/New Zealand for a month. I don’t think it would be a bad thing to carry a roster of 28 during a World Cup year, but what do I know. It is within the realm of possibility that 2 of the drafted forwards spend some time on Louisville’s roster, but I don’t see a clear path for all three.

Michael Shaw 1/9/23 Michael Shaw 1/9/23

Taking out the Trash (clearing out the archive)

Before the Yates Report was published, I was working on 2 articles, one for the State of Louisville website and one for this one. On the State of Louisville website, I wrote quarterly reviews of the season. I had completed and submitted for publication the Fourth Quarter review of Louisville’s season. An hour later, the Yates report was published, and I pulled it back and it was never published on the State of Louisville website. I am going to present it here, unedited, to draw a close to my 2022 work for the State of Louisville, so that I can start fresh in 2023. The other piece that I was working on was a season review for this site. I had started to write it simultaneously but didn’t get more than 25% of the way through. Here is the fourth quarter review presented from my state of mind on October 3, 2022.

Racing Louisville: 2022 Fourth Quarter Review

Racing's performances ranged from total disaster to pure bliss in the last six matches of the season, but ultimately lead to hope for 2023

In my first quarter review of Racing Louisville's season, I decided to divide the season up into uneven quarters comprising of matches in a 5-6-5-6 format. I was full of optimism after the first five matches, and it was pretty much straight downhill from there. Now that the season is complete, here are the points totals for those four arbitrary divisions:

First Five: 8 Points
Next Six: 2 Points
Next Five: 4 Points
Last Six: 9 Points

You can argue that the first five matches were a better performance with 1.6 points per match or you could argue that the Last Six were better with 9 points won. Earning 1.6 points per match would have put Racing in 6th place and in line for the last playoff spot. At the top of the league there isn't much distance between winning the shield (which the OL Reign did with 40 points) and just missing the playoffs (which the North Carolina Courage did with 32 points). With 23 points, Racing still seems quite a sizable distance from the upper echelons of the league. All thing considered, Racing did perform better this season, but not good enough to been seen as more than a good early-season story. While they ended up with 23 points, which is one more than last year and finished ahead of three teams instead of just one, they were still in 9th place (due to the two new California teams that both finished ahead of Racing). It could have been much, much worse and things looked to be headed toward disaster after their biggest match of the season: the Fill the Fam game on August 27th.

Hitting a wall

Racing's third quarter of the season was mostly defined by decent performances but middling results. However, those performances didn't convince me enough to predict the team from finishing higher than 11th. On August 27th, Racing laid an absolute egg in front of the crowd at Lynn Family Stadium. If you are a glutton for punishment, you can relive the embarrassment here and here on my blog and on an emergency episode of Butchertown Rundown. I advise you to not do that. Racing then followed up a 4-0 home loss to the Red Stars with a 1-5 capitulation vs. the North Carolina Courage on the road. This resulted in a rather frank assessment from Jess McDonald in which she basically identified the problem as a lack of identify and the players not believing in themselves. There are some other, unspoken items that Jess will not discuss. I asked off the record and Paul Miles of 840 WHAS gave it a shot after Racing's last match on October 1st, but Jess seems steadfast in remaining tight lipped about the other things that might have contributed to the drop in performance. Coach Björkegren has mentioned the first-year players not being used to the grueling NWSL schedule when compared to the NCAA schedule or the relentlessly high level of competition in the NWSL as being reasons for the midseason drop in form. I think it's just as likely that the front office's handling of the roster during the season killed the ability to rotate effective players into the lineup especially during the international break for the Euros and CONCACAF. It could be something else, too. Regardless, it culminated in 2 back-to-back losses that for a brief period looked like it may have sent the rest of the season into a tailspin.

Thank goodness for the league's long-standing punching bag: the Orlando Pride. Racing played a bizarre match at Dayton International Speedway (doesn't "International" imply that the track transverses the border across more than one sovereign nation?) earlier in the year in which they led 2-0 but ultimately drew 2-2 and featured a definitively not-top-choice back four of Milliet-Lester-Bonner-Martin. At full strength, Racing rather easily cruised to victory on September 16th. I think relief was the overarching emotion, but it did seem to instill the team with some confidence. It also started Racing's late-season persona as a spoiler (the victory over the Pride either virtually or actually eliminated Orlando from playoff contention, but any NWSL fan will tell you that they were never a serious threat.)

One inevitable step back, then two steps forward

Racing then made a 2-match west coast trip to play the much more intimidating Portland Thorns and the now unmasked-Scooby-Doo-villain-styled frauds of Angel City. Racing has never beaten or the Thorns and only ever scored once. The 3-0 loss to the Thorns was predictable, but a very good defensive first 45 gave Racing fans a little hope that was quickly erased by allowing 3 goals in the next 11 minutes, capped off by a goal from a high-school-aged teenager (the very, very talented Olivia Moultrie). Racing was never likely to win that match, so I don't believe they were too devastated. That was on display in their next two matches.

This year's vintage of Racing didn't have two sweeter victories than the last two matches of the season. Their victory in LA greatly reduced Angel City's ability to make the playoffs and took away their ability to control their own destiny. The last-minute victory vs. KC moved them from hosting a home playoff match to going on the road vs. Houston. The former was notable in that it was Racing's first ever come from behind win on the road. I don't think I would label the Banc of California crowd as "hostile", but I would say that they were rather enthusiastic, especially after Angel City scored one of the luckiest and ugliest goals you will ever see in the 14th minute. Racing equalized on Davis's fine strike in the 37th minute (made and assisted by Jaelin Howell) and were leading at half due to Alex Chidiac's converted penalty. In the second half, Racing probably did its best job of the year in defending a lead. They conceded some possession, but it definitely wasn't one-sided. In the waning moments they got the third goal on a fine finish from Emia Ekic (assisted by Emily Fox). I don't know if there is a consensus about which is more fun for an athlete, silencing a road crowd or sending a home crowd into pure hysteria. Luckily Racing players experienced both as Jessica McDonald stole 2 points for Racing late into stoppage time against the Kansas City Current at home. One thing is for sure: McDonald absolutely relished her goal.

What's next for Racing?

To me, the big offseason question is: Who will be on the Matchday 1 squad? For all of the feel-good vibes around winning 3 out of the last 4 matches, all that it really did from a roster building perspective is make Racing's draft position worse. There is really good talent available at the fourth pick (see Sav DeMelo), but if there is one position that is most valuable in the NWSL especially when you don't have it, it is a high-quality center back. I don't think it is any secret that Racing would like to take Emily Madril at 4. The question is: Will she be available? The league already holds her rights, which does two things. It allows her to play overseas until she is drafted and retain her eligibility, but then she must go to the team that drafts her. Previously, drafted players like Mia Fishel could opt out to join another league, which in Fishel's case was Liga MX Femenil via the Tigres UANL. Fishel was drafted by Orlando and never played there. For Racing and Madril a union would make sense in that she is already familiar with the club through its USL W League team and through practicing with the first team during the summer. Plus, I think she would walk into the Starting XI. However, there isn't a definitive draft projection source for the NWSL, so information is hard to find at least until the NCAA season is over. Even then, it is not exactly clear who the best players are. Either way, I am of the opinion that Racing will look defense with its first pick. After the first round, the chances of finding an impact player have fallen significantly since the league expanded last year. It may be a one-year blip, but Racing got only 1 player after the first round that is still on the roster and she played zero league minutes (back-up keeper Jordyn Bloomer). For the first time there will be NWSL free agency, but I don't think signing NWSL free agents fits into Racing's philosophy.

Therefore, I think Racing will once again try to find international players or work out a transfer if there is a current NWSL player that they want. The biggest bet for Racing is that their younger players will improve. DeMelo, Howell, and Fox will be the key core, but they will need improved production from Ekic and Davis, a healthy Thembi Kgatlana or Nadia Nadim (neither a guarantee), a maintained or better level performance from Wang Shuang, and at least two more NWSL-level defenders. Gemma Bonner has a player option, but also a partner and potentially a nice broadcasting career waiting for her in England. Satara Murray is a nice player but is probably a borderline starter. Rebecca Holloway seemed to win and lose a starting job in the matter of two matches. Julia Lester is best suited at outside back. Nealy Martin was rarely used after being a key contributor in year one. Zaneta Wyne was signed as a national team replacement player and has played sparingly since she signed. The fact of the matter is that this roster is probably 10th or 11th best roster on paper in the NWSL, so 9th place is an over achievement.

The good news is that there will be no enforced roster turnover this offseason, so Racing will not lose a player like Kaleigh Riehl. I don't know how much difference she would have made, but her absence was definitely felt. Racing lost a player in what turned out to be its thinnest position. I know that Racing did not want to lose her, and I heard that attempts were made to try to bring her back. She is 25 and started 17 matches for the Wave, and will likely be a starter in their upcoming playoff match. I imagine that she is settled in San Diego, but if there is one player I would like back, it is her.

The offseason will definitely set the tone for next year. Racing couldn't get Björkegren in soon enough to shape the roster in the preseason, so he did that in the summer transfer window. This year I expect and hope for way less turnover. With a couple of more pieces, Racing could make a playoff push in year 3.

I am probably less rosy than I was then on the prospects for Louisville in 2023, especially as the roster sits today on January 9, 2023.

The next piece was going to be a bit more like a performance report/report card. After reading the Yates Report I couldn’t stomach doing this anymore. Give a little time and space, I think the points are still valid on the sections that I completed, so I will present them as written as of October 2, 2023.

Post Season Report Card

The idea of doing a post season report card for this year’s Racing Louisville squad seems like a daunting task. I could go with your standard A-F or A-U scale, but that seems awful harsh and tends to get people too focused on the letter grade and not the commentary. In lieu of that scale, I think a more of a performance rating approach is indicated. Let’s break down the categories like this:

Unacceptable - Glaring issues that will require change
Disappointing - Needs (but is capable of) improvement
As expected - Met expectations in all areas
Outstanding - Had exceptional performance in at least one area

The other difficult part is to determine who to evaluate, so I will use this framework. I will evaluate the front office as a whole, the coaching staff as a whole, and every player that had an appearance for Racing separately. Since I am avoiding the “report card” format, I can use my own expectations to evaluate vs. grading on a scale that skews toward rewarding the best players for simply being the best. In essence, I wouldn’t evaluate Jess McDonald under the same criteria as Parker Goins. The nuance here is that for players who left Racing, I will only evaluate them on their appearances for Racing. Obviously, any Dash fan would presumably rate Ebony Salmon as an “Outstanding” for her performance in Houston, but her brief time at Racing was squarely in the “Disappointing” category whether that was entirely in her control or not.

Unacceptable

The Front Office: I had this section completely written when the NWSL Report into player abuse was released on Monday. I think all of the points are still valid, so I am going to leave it below as written. I will put it in italics as to differentiate between my frame of mind on Sunday October 2nd vs. Monday October 3rd. Now based on the report released on Monday, I think it highlights the tone-deafness that this front office has in regard to its ability to respond appropriately to player concerns. None of the things in the report point to anything from this season as far as I can tell, but the club hid behind the legal issue of non-disclosure to cowardly avoid the ultimate moral responsibility to identify a predator and make him known.

Almost every move that the team executed made sense in and of itself. Collectively they were puzzling at best and negligent at worst. I stand by my evaluation that the club basically forfeited the middle of the season due to the volatility in the roster during the summer transfer window. If there was a plan, it wasn’t executed in a way that made sense to me or many other fans. The Racing front office needs more women’s soccer expertise. If they enter year 3 without a major addition it will be very bad in my opinion. I don’t know or believe a single person in the front office to be doing a poor job. It’s just incomplete in NWSL knowledge. Until that fact is recognized, I don’t know if circumstances will greatly improve. There are nuances to this league that you almost have to live through to understand. Racing has lived through 2 years of this now, but I still don’t think that is enough to bridge the knowledge gap. Maybe I am wrong, but regardless of the intrinsic advantages that the two California expansion teams had, they had people with NWSL experience in vital positions. Their first year sucess is surely due to this in part. The club needs to get over whatever ill feelings they still might have around the expansion draft if it is ever to move forward. I hope I never hear anyone bring that up again.

Disappointing

The Coaching Staff: At point in time this season, their rating likely vacillated between Unacceptable and As Expected, but I settled on an overall Rating of Disappointing, but closer to As Expected. Based on just about every measure, this season was an improvement on the pitch. However, I think Coach Björkegren might have slightly underestimated his ability to make a transformational impact. This year’s team is definitely coached better but is still prone to committing the same errors. At times Björkegren has shown flexibility and adaptability, but I think it took him too long to find the right group of players to play together. I don’t think that it’s an accident that Racing won its last two matches while using a back four comprised of 4 defenders vs. 3 and a midfielder. Milliet has still played in every single match but made her 50th NWSL start in the last match and that probably is a microcosm of the selection issues. Björkegren didn’t trust all of his defenders but made the most changes to that part of the roster during his tenure, so you have to feel like he had input on the acquisitions of Lester, Holloway, Murray and Wyne. Sh’Nia Gordon was likely signed based on his recommendation and made next to no impact and is now gone. His most recent gameday squads had 3 keepers on the bench, simply because there is room as the number of available outfield substitutes is so small. I believe his biggest flaw this season is believing that he can find effective players in other leagues and immediately move them into the lineup. He is surely looking for players who want to play in his style but has sacrificed talent to do so (Salmon). Many other fans hate that he doesn’t substitute much, but to me that is indicative of the lack of depth on the bench. Publicly he had stated that he doesn’t make changes just to make them and hesitates to make subs if the team is playing well. I personally believe he is protected the rest of the squad a bit by not stating the reality: the back end of the squad isn’t good enough. Unfortunately for him, he also partially responsible for who is on the roster and mostly responsible for the club keeping a small roster.

However, as Jess McDonald stated in her post match interview after the last match, the coaches learned as the year went along as well as the players. Björkegren doesn’t strike me as over stubborn. I think he will use the offseason to look to make changes to the roster that are needed but will have also learned his lesson to only use the summer transfer window as way to get transformational talent and not to tweak the roster. If you look at the last 4 matches, I think you could bump up his rating to “As Expected”. Winning 3 out of 4 matches against teams that absolutely had something to play for is nothing to sneeze at. As recently as September 10th, this team looked like it could be in danger of phoning in the rest of the season. It is a credit to him that the players fought hard to win these matches. If the players wanted him gone, they could have easily folded and cost him his job. The did the opposite and surely secured his job for at least the start of a second season. The jury is still out on whether he will work out, but that is better that already being found guilty of not being the right coach.

I had made it to the point in writing this article where I rated two players as disappointing, but I have chosen to redact the commentary for those players.

Even if no one bothers to read this, I wanted to publish these pieces as to close the book on the 2022 season in my head, and to clear the slate for next season.