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Louisville 3 Kansas City 2 Player Ratings
More on this tomorrow, but this might be Racing's first “style” victory, at least this season. They dominated and won which you always like to see.
Lund-6: Not really called on to do much and not at fault on either goal.
Pickett-7: Effective as usual.
Erceg-7: Picked up an early yellow, but managed it well until the end of the match.
Murray-7: Had the odd nervy moment, but had some really important touches in the first half.
Wyne-7: Not nearly as attack-minded at Milliet, but deputized for her well.
Howell-8: Followed up her impressive display against Chicago with another excellent performance.
Baggett-7: Looked like a good pickup for Louisville in her first start.
DeMelo-9: What can you say? She is kind of Ms. Everything for this team.
Monaghan-7: Worked really hard on both sides of the ball.
Kanu-6: Still needs that finishing touch, but I believe she will find it.
Chidiac-7: An absolute ball of energy. Should be getting more minutes.
Louisville v Kansas City Challenge Cup Pre-Match Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
I love cup competitions. I know that isn’t a view shared by everyone, but almost none of my views are. The reason I like cup competitions is that if you aren’t doing great in the league, it’s a chance to still win some silverware. Alternatively, if you don’t make it out of the group stage you can act like you don’t care or say that you don’t take the competition seriously. It’s a win-win! The Challenge Cup also has an increased prize money pool this year as an incentive to help combat the “don’t care” excuse. That is strictly my perspective as a fan as Abby Erceg commented today that the players take every match seriously, but that it is up to the coaching staff to determine how the match is played from a tactics and player selection perspective. Since half of the matches will occur during the World Cup break, there is another factor the complicates a team's performance in the cup this season if you have too many of your starters away on international duty. I for one will be happy to still have club soccer going on during the World Cup.
For Louisville, it will be their first Challenge Cup match but Kansas City has already played a match against Houston in which they rolled out a pretty strong lineup. Every single player who started for the Current that day had started a match prior to that one and most of their regular starters were included in that match’s starting lineup. However, former head coach Matt Potter was desperate to find any kind of form as the Current were sitting on zero league points when that match occurred. Since Louisville and Kansas City turn right around and have a league match in Kansas this upcoming Saturday there is a possibility for both sides to be rather cagey when it comes to the midweek matchup. Caroline Sjöblom pretry much confirmed that the Current will rotate some, but we will see how much. She also commented that she doesn't plan to play in the exact same manner on Wednesday and Saturday. The Current do rotate between 3, 4, and 5 at the back from time to time. She also said that she does expect Louisville to set up the same way in both matches. ***LOUD THROAT CLEAR***
Coach Björkegren stated today that his intentions are to win every competition his team enters, which I like to hear. He all but officially confirmed that there would be some rotation for Wednesday and then some planned substitutes during the match. Björkegren did mix up his lineups during the Challenge Cup last year, but he really hadn’t settled on a Starting XI yet and those matches occurred in the preseason. I am sure he will be tempted to keep the momentum going after the first win, but he surely won’t want to play all of his starters 90 minutes 3 times in 9 days. I suspect the players most likely to get a midweek rest are Erceg, Milliet and Pickett as they have each played the full 90 minutes seven times already this season. No other player has played a full seven matches other than Lund, so relatively speaking the rest of the team should have semi-fresh legs. I do expect Chidiac to get a start either Wednesday or Saturday. Pikkujämsä seems like a prime candidate to start on Wednesday and put in 45 to 60 minutes before being subbed off. Baggett could easily see more time too. Personally, I would start Goins. If McDonald is back, she should start. There are plenty of options. Here is a list of players’ minutes so far this season.
Lund, Erceg, Milliet, Pickett-630
Borges,DeMelo-between 515 and 540
Howell, Wang-between 465 and 475
Monaghan, Davis, Holloway-between 330 and 350
Kanu, Pikkujämsä, McDonald, Lester-between 250 and 270
Fischer-175
Everone else has less than 90.
Saturday’s match is more important in the grand scheme of things, so win, lose, or draw, Louisville will have one eye on the upcoming league battle. Louisville played very well on Friday night against Chicago, but still needs to show that they can win consistently. Erceg and Björkegren both said the team naturally got a lift from getting 3 points on Friday, but also that spirits were high even prior to that.
Björkegren told reporters that Davis and Ekic fully participated in practice on Tuesday and that Davis could see action on Wednesday, but could also need a few more days. Ekic is still building up match stamina and therefore is probably still a week or so away from game action.
Louisville 3 Chicago 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Chris Humphrey
Louisville got its first win of the season and looked really good doing it. Chicago didn't put up much of a fight, but there should never be any apologies for getting a convincing win.
I will own the fact that I was very critical of this team prior to this match. One match won't convince me that everything will be bright and sunny going forward, but if they play this well, you can bet on more wins soon. The key will now be to continue the momentum.
Wang Shuang started the match with a bad giveaway and a pretty cynical foul and then proceeded to play the best match she has ever played for Louisville. I will reiterate what I said in my player ratings. She seemed to get better and better as every minute of the match ticked by. There are things she does and passes she sees that nobody else on the team can duplicate. Consistency will be the key for her. She doesn't have to be this brilliant every match, but she can't alternate between a performance like this and the one she had in Orlando.
You have to wonder if Sav DeMelo had kept her head against the OL Reign, that Louisville might be another 5 points to the good. On this team, there is nobody else that can consistently drive the team forward like she does. She won the penalty, and forced the own goal from Naeher. Personally, I will take Wang's cool poise from the spot, but her power was just enough. It does now mean she is 1 for 3 from the spot, so Louisville's next penalty could go back to Wang. Other than that, it would be hard to find any fault in her performance.
My player of the match however goes to Jae Howell. She put in a true captain's performance. One of these days she will actually score a header that ends up counting, but her real value was in how she threw herself around to stop danger and win the ball back at critical times. I thought Louisville was the tiniest bit flat in the first few minutes, but Howell's effort pulled the team out of this brief spell of mediocre play and jump-started the performance.
This was not a mistake free performance, but to my eyes at least, they seemed to collectively cover for each other more fiercely than they had done in previous matches. Mistakes will always be made, but this performance makes me hopeful because they demonstrated just that little bit more fight for each other and that can ultimately make a difference.
Louisville might not have an easier clean sheet all year. Lund's best save actually never counted because the buildup was offside. She did make a couple of solid saves at the end, but she didn't have to stand on her head at all this match. The defensive effort can probably be most likely be credited to how they controlled the match versus how they actually defended at the back. It was a front footed defensive effort. I’m sure this is how everyone in the organization envisions the defensive working. However, not every opponent will be as poor as Chicago. It's good to see, but I still need to see more to feel comfortable that this will work against better teams. Plan A was excellently executed on the night. However, it was the first time Plan A has produced 3 points in a while.
Don't discount the importance of Parker Goins late goal. We don't yet know how Louisville will approach the Challenge Cup, but with Davis's late injury that ruled her out and another match on Wednesday, Goins might be selected to start up front or at least play a few more minutes. It's good that she has a goal fresh in her memory if she's called upon in the upcoming cup matches.
Thembi Kgatlana looked so dangerous on the counter that it makes you ponder if a little route one football might make sense once she's in the starting lineup. I don't think Louisville will play this way frequently, but a quick, direct ball to her when one of her teammates wins the ball in their opponent's half might be worth a shot now and then.
Coach Björkegren cooled off his hot seat a bit last night but will likely need an extended run of good results to get it cool enough for his comfort. He was visibly elated when Howell appeared to score, so we know how much this match meant to the usually stoic coach.
Maybe the most encouraging thing that I noticed after the match was that the team, while happy to win, looked more relieved than excited. Now it really only matters if they come out for their next league match and play with the same intensity, but it's good to see that the players expected to win.
Louisville 3 Chicago 0 Player Ratings
Louisville finally put in a full 90 minute performance and easily won. In my opinion, the best part was how hard they fought for each other.
Lund-7: Called into action early and late, but her defense protected her for the most part. Her distribution was good as well.
Pickett-8: Louisville's most consistent player this season played even better tonight.
Erceg-8: Played excellently in her stints higher up the pitch.
Lester-8: Helped keep all of the Chicago attackers at bay.
Milliet-8: Could have scored and was fantastic in attack as well as defense.
Howell-9: Ruthlessly commanding. Wanted this one so bad from the opening minute.
Borges-8: Won the penalty for Wang's goal. Good on both sides of the ball.
DeMelo-8: Won and then kind of scored the penalty. Clear how much the team missed her in the last match.
Monaghan-8: Relentlessly attacked down the left side. Really caused problems for Chicago's defense.
Kanu-7: Still settling in from her return from injury, but much better tonight.
Wang-8: Seemed to get better every minute the match went on. Took her penalty coolly and calmly.
Goins-7: Great to see her score.
Kgatlana-7: Can’t wait to see her get a full match.
Louisville v Chicago Prematch Thoughts
Courtesy Connor Cunningham
Small editorial note: I have decided to change the title of the posts prior to the macthes from “Preview” to “Prematch Thoughts” as it more accurately reflects the typical content of the posts.
It is time to face facts, folks. Louisville is not a good team. They aren't even really average by any meaningful metric. I know “good” is an ill-defined word, so let me present 3 numbers that for me define how not “good” they are. They are 11th out of 12th in the table, but that can be explained away by the schedule and “it's early”. The other two are demonstrated here:
Louisville is below average at getting points when they fall behind and well below average when getting a lead (the league average is indicated by the NWSL logo).
Don't get me wrong, I know some of you believe in this team, but for me there is too much data and evidence that they simply are not good enough as currently constructed and sent out to play. I have tired of cherry-picked examples of good or even excellent stretches of play presented as evidence. It's fools gold. The cold, harsh reality is that this team has 4 points from 6 matches. If you step back and take in the bigger picture, you will see that whatever “this” is from Louisville, it isn't close to working well enough to produce consistent results.
The eye test says that this team is better, but I am starting to wonder if we as a collective fan base have mistaken “improvement” for “being good”. Just as it's entirely possible to move from good to great, and great to excellent, it's also entirely possible to move from poor to fair, and fair to average. It is relative improvement and that doesn't quite tell you how you stack up against competition. In my opinion, only results do that. For every “ this team is so close” and “individual mistakes hurt us” excuse, there are other, better teams that are taking the chances presented to them (Gotham/Orlando recently) and/or are good enough to recover from individual errors to win matches (perennial winners Portland/OL Reign).
Whatever set of fragile, delicately-balanced conditions that have to be met in order for Louisville to win a match this season have not been demonstrated yet. I would argue that it really boils down to this: Louisville doesn't take full advantage of the periods in the matches where they play well, and are too susceptible to giving up goals when they aren't playing particularly well. My belief is that good teams win when they play well, but also get points even when they aren't at their best. The number of times that Louisville has “played well” and come away with one or no points makes me question if they simply aren't playing at a better level than the fans have ever experienced, but that level still isn't good enough to win.
I know there have been some perspectives from people outside Louisville (fans, media, and coaches) that have been positive. I’m starting to think those opnions suffer from the same lens. Yes, Louisville is better, but it would be almost impossible to not be with the talent infusion this season.
Now, I know I've lost some.of you and there is a section of the fanbase that will be apologists for anything this team does. Like most apologists, they will basically argue that I can’t say for sure that this team will not get better and even possibly win their next 4 matches and ultimately make the playoffs. They are 100% correct in saying that I can't say that for sure. However, this ignores all prior evidence. This club has never been able to consistently protect a lead since Coach Björkegren has been here. Their point tally is lower from the first six matches this season when compared to the two prior seasons. Also, I was reminded when I listened to Butchertown Rundown that I said that this team would need to score 3 goals to win a match, something that has proven eerily true in 4 out of the 6 matches.
In summary, my point is that this team isn't good or even really average and you're deluding yourself if you think that is suddenly going to change without some kind of meaningful intervention. I will grant you that the word ‘yet’ could go at the end of the previous sentence, but I’ve not seen enough (yet) to add that word.
The current blend of players/tactics/style/coaching isn't producing results, and you don't have to be a genius to figure out that 99% of the time when that happens, the scapegoat is the same. Typically I think mid-season changes reek of throwing in the towel on the season. In this case however, with 3 quarters of the league season and all of the Challenge Cup left, I think something has to change. I hope Louisville reels off 10 wins in row, but that is a dream based on hope and not an expectation based on the current reality.
As for this match, Chicago is below Louisville in the table, but only by goal difference, and this early in the season that is really no difference at all. On paper, they are the perfect team to start a winning run. However, since I’m sure that even if you are still with me, you are probably “hate reading” at this point, I will go ahead and bring up the 0-4 drubbing at the “Fill the Fam” match last season and also remind you that Louisville's first two players ever Savanah McCaskill and Yuki Nagasato love scoring against Louisville.
I believe that Louisville is entirely capable of winning this match. I am also sure that they are also entirely capable of losing it by multiple goals.
There is no more time left for improved play without improved results.
Orlando 1 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville went out on Saturday night and proved to the rest of the NWSL that they simply aren't ready to win. That isn't to say that they won’t win and win soon, but I think we have to face facts that while this team is full of talent, they are definitely less than the sum of their parts at this point.
I typically attend post match interviews but I just didn't have the stomach for it after this match. I am tired of hearing the same things. There is a built in excuse for losing this match (missing DeMelo) but I have no appetite for that. Every dropped point comes with an explanation/excuse and frankly I've had enough of them. This team doesn't play well together in stretches that are long enough to produce good results. Until they show me, I won't expect anything different than I have seen to date.
Orlando were unfortunate not to score more in my opinion. The scoreline could have been much worse. If they had the killer instinct of a seasoned winner, this match could have been 3-0 or 4-0.
Kanu doesn't look right since her injury.
Some people are going to point to the players who are now returning return to squad and let that give them reason for hope. The current players aren't connected enough on the pitch to make me think that new players are going to help unless it's by pure individual brilliance.
For as good as Lund was once Louisville fell behind, she could have done more on the goal. She may be the best instinctual keeper in the league, but her decision making let her down for the second match in a row.
Louisville is too predictable and Orlando's fast counters were a problem all match. I could write a one-sentence scouting report on Louisville for every team in the league. “Drop back to midfield and counterattack down their defensive right side.” This team's setup and passing patterns are too predictable.
It's time to manage expectations. The players on this team appeared talented enough to turn things around, but they lack cohesion. They might figure it out but I think it's equally likely that they might not figure it out it time to threaten for a top 6 spot.
Orlando 1 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
This was pretty clearly the worst performance of the year so far by Louisville. This organization needs to look in the mirror and figure out if they have what it takes to win.
Lund-5: Made several good saves because the defense in front of her was bad too many times
Pickett-7: Was the only player who seemed to consistently care in both halves.
Erceg-5: Not up to the usual standard.
Lester-5: Had a rather indifferent performance.
Milliet-5: Got beat consistently. It may be time for a change at right back.
Howell-5: Too much fire in the first half, so had to temper her effort in the 2nd.
Borges-5: Couldn't connect with her teammates effectively enough when she was on the ball.
Fischer-5: Had once decent effort blocked, but was invisible other than that.
Monaghan-5: Probably saw her push for more starts disappear after a pedestrian performance.
Kanu-4: Wasteful with the chances she got.
Wang-5: Killed a couple of promising attacks with poor long range efforts.
Chidiac-6: Provided energy if nothing else.
Davis-7: Had the best 2nd half chances.
Orlando v Louisville Preview
It’s winning time…or else.
“There is a time to play, and there’s a time to win.” - Ahmad Rashad
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Louisville enters the match against Orlando on Saturday as the only remaining winless team in the NWSL. Louisville is better than Orlando. Louisville should win this match. I hesitate to call the match a “must win” match although I truly believe it is, so instead I will call it a “Show Me” match. I need this team to show me that it is ready to win.
Louisville has put on good performances for sections of time, and I guess I will concede that even in the Portland match they played well in sections. However, they have yet to play well in “winning time”. If you recognize the quote from the top of the article, you understand what winning time is. If not here you go. I think a large portion of the fan base is still in “making progress mode” or “playing well mode”. I’ve moved on to winning time.
While playing well and winning are not mutually exclusive, they aren’t two overlapping circles in the Venn diagram either. By my recollection, Louisville has played worse football than their opponents and won exactly once in their entire history…this match. In that match Louisville still did one thing really well and that was defend in front of the goal. Therefore, you shouldn’t rely on playing poorly and getting a result. Then again, playing their best match this season against the OL Reign didn’t yield more than a point. They failed during winning time.
I am all for Louisville playing better football than their opponents for large stretches of their matches, but another switch needs to flip. Truly great teams win matches even when they aren’t playing well and this in my opinion is down to mentality and the habit of winning. If you really think about winning in this league, I think teams have to manage and understand the other components of a match in addition to how they are playing.
The scoreline: I am usually pretty open to new ideas, but nobody will ever convince me that scoreline doesn’t dictate play. I will use the Portland match as an example, and then promise not to ever bring it up again. If you’re down 1-0 after a few minutes and then “play well” for a large portion of the match before you fall behind 2-0, that performance DOES NOT MATTER, if you are serious about winning. It matters if you are looking for improvement, I will grant you that, but I believe in this team and don’t need to see any more improvement that doesn’t translate to results. I need to see winning. The only thing that matters is getting a goal back and not giving up more. Good opponents are going to gear down and go into game management mode which may look like you performing better but is also designed to minimize the risk of you scoring. By the way, Louisville gave a good example of this during the OL Reign match (until they didn’t) but missed the next part.
Mentality: Winning teams either don’t have huge lapses in concentration or know how not to compound them. If you are ahead in a match, you should NEVER concede a penalty. It’s borderline unforgivable, if you want to become a winner. It happens all the time in soccer, even with good teams and it drives me crazy. Make your opponent beat you, don’t beat yourself. It’s a lesson still not learned in Louisville. Playing well in stretches only takes concentration during those stretches. Winning takes 90 plus minutes of it.
The Officials: You play your opponent, but you also play the pitch, the crowd, the weather and the officials. You can sometimes plan for the three other things, but sometimes the officials are hard to adjust to. I don’t think the officials have cost Louisville points in any match this season and possibly ever. I do think that Louisville doesn’t do a great job of getting the officials to call the match fairly. I know some people absolutely detest “flopping”, but I am going to say this somewhat tongue-in-cheek: officials are basically cowards. They will give 100 fouls for a player who feigns contact or goes down too easy for every 1 yellow card they give for simulation. It takes no courage to give a touch foul to a player that flops. It takes courage to issue a card for simulation. That reality makes flopping a low risk, high reward venture. To not take advantage of it at the right times is giving away an advantage to your opponent who is willing to do so. I will reiterate again; I am proudly a terrible sport.
Winning time: It’s typically the last few minutes, but not always. If you take full advantage of the three components above, any time you’re in the lead is winning time. I believe in Louisville’s ability to fight back when they are down and pull out a draw that feels like a win. The numbers give me no confidence in their ability to protect a lead. Here is last year’s performance when scoring first:
Second worst in the league. Now this year so far…
Tied for worse with their upcoming opponent Orlando. Other teams get wins consistently when they score first. Louisville has to start doing so soon or it will be another disappointing season, perhaps the most disappointing one yet. Score first and win. It’s the recipe for easy success and it shows you understand winning time.
Now I realize this is a lot of negativity for a preview, but this next match has to be a win. I will prepare you ahead of time. If it is a draw, expect poor player ratings. There is no excuse not to win this match. If somehow Orlando comes out and plays well and forces Louisville into a subpar performance, I am not letting the players off the hook or use the excuse of missing DeMelo. It’s winning time, or else.
Louisville 2 Reign 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy Jordan Prather (NWSL Live Content Creator)
I feel like everyone could use a hug after last night’s painful draw. The good outweighed the bad and the Reign have to feel like they escaped with a point rather than earned one. Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way and then move to the good as this really was the best performance of the year so far.
I don’t know what Katie Lund was doing on the foul that led to the penalty. Saskia Webber, the former USWNT goalie who was on color commentary last night for the Parmount Plus broadcast beat her up pretty bad in her commentary too. (Quick side note: I didn’t watch the entire replay, and I am glad because I don’t know if I could handle 90 minutes of a keeper’s commentary. It’s a bit like a punter or placekicker calling a NFL game.) It was a completely unnecessary foul as Huitema was moving away from the goal and Erceg was there to cover as well. Lund has very likely saved and thus earned Louisville many points in the table over the last year or so, but last night she was at least 50% responsible for costing them 2 points. The good news is it’s unlikely to be a mistake that she repeats frequently, but I have to wonder if Louisville’s total control of the match made her lose her concentration. I think most keepers will tell you that one of the hardest things to do in a match is to be immediately called into action after being involved in virtually none of it. It was almost like she felt like she had to get involved in order to feel part of the match.
I tweeted that Sav DeMelo told my wife after the match that she is going to appeal that second yellow card. After going back and watching it, I don’t think she will have much luck. It was a judgement call and after about 70 minutes of really fine officiating, lead official Eric Tattersall lost control of the match. For me it turned when he gave Huerta a yellow card. What he should have done was carded her immediately for pulling back Pickett. He didn’t and thus let her show him up by kicking the ball away. At that point, he had to card her. If he cards her for the first infringement, she never kicks that ball away and maybe he decides to let the yellow card on DeMelo go. Then again maybe not, as it really was a very poor look for DeMelo to launch that ball after Howell was whistled for a very soft foul. Things got really chippy after that.
Staying with DeMelo, I think Louisville will lose any appeal on that second card. I don’t think they will have any grounds to appeal on the first one either, so Louisville could be making a trip to Orlando without DeMelo available against the Pride. When she was on the pitch, DeMelo was fantastic again. Her goal was great, and she is clearly one of the best midfielders in the league, but she needs to learn to either control her reactions better or go the other direction and just scare the hell out of all of the officials like the persona Rapinoe has cultivated over the years. Honestly, Sav fouls too much to get away with berating the officials, so she is better off keeping her emotions in check while politely staying in the official’s ear to remind them how much she is getting fouled.
With all of that out of the way, Louisville really did dominate that match. Don’t bother to look at the stats. They won’t provide any illumination in this case. Trust what you saw with your eyes, which if you were like me was Louisville defanging a lion. The OL Reign have been an excellent team for a long time and Louisville made them look ordinary and that’s even being kind. At no point during the first half of the match did the Reign look like they were in the neighborhood of scoring. They stubbornly stuck with playing out from the back and Louisville kept the majority of the Reign’s possession in nonthreatening places. Even after half, while the Reign were a little more threatening, Louisville kept attacking and kept the match from being one way traffic. Even down to 10 players, Louisville had its chances. Louisville was clearly the better team on the night.
Kim Björkegren will have even more of a selection headache going forward as Paige Monaghan won a deserved player of the match award from the fans. She was excellent all over the pitch, and her goal was one of the coolest composed finishes you will ever see. It was a goal that literally every player is physically capable of scoring, but few are mentally capable of keeping their composure to score it. It was a calculated pass into the bottom corner. Later on, she would blast another opportunity where maybe her composure left her or maybe she didn’t have enough space of time for a more precise finish. Regardless, there wasn’t a player that looked like she was having more fun out there than Paige. She showed more in her start than McDonald has lately, so it will be interesting to see what Björkegren does when Jess gets back. Kanu looks ready to be given another start too. I can almost guarantee a different starting XI in Orlando even if DeMelo wins her unlikely appeal.
Orlando won in San Diego last night, but I don’t think they are suddenly a team to be reckoned with. Louisville needs to go to Orlando this year and play on a real pitch and show no mercy by taking three points home. After the match, you could see the pain on Jae Howell’s face knowing her team probably should have taken three points. If she can convince her teammates to shake this result off, I believe this team is capable of starting a really good run of results.
Louisville 2 Reign 2 Player Ratings
Louisville once again let a lead slip due to individual errors, but overall can be encouraged with how average they made the Reign play.
Lund-5: Changed the game in the worst possible way when she gave up a needless penalty. Probably cost the team 2 points tonight.
Pickett-8: Starting to see the best from her. She and Erceg played well through each other tonight.
Erceg-8: See above. Will hopefully help the team get that first win soon
Lester-7: Looked really settled for not playing for a few months, but her lack of height probably didn't help on Huitema's goal.
Milliet-6: Gave away a dangerous free kick and got a yellow card for it, but other than that played up to her usual standard.
Howell-8: Owned the midfield against some very good opponents.
DeMelo-7: Scored a terrific goal, but has to not get a yellow card so early. The 2nd one will be debated and she told my wife she is already planning to appeal. Regardless, getting sent off changed the flow of the match.
Borges-7: Paired up nicely with Wang and Milliet on the right side.
Monaghan-8: Her goal was clinically taken, and will make Björkegren think about giving her another start.
Davis-6: For as well as the team played for the most part, she wasn't really involved as much as she has shown she can be.
Wang-7: Played well in the 2nd half and may now be rounding back into form.
Louisville v Reign Preview
Canine enthusiast Jessica Berman plays with Uchenna Kanu’s dog after practice on Friday.
The commissioner is in town, to watch the 1000th ever NWSL match, which happens to be when Louisville faces off with the soon to be OL-less Reign. I hold out hope that they just drop the OL and become “Reign” without a location indicator, as to further confuse novice soccer fans. It was a rather unique practice in that that there were quite a few visitors and the practice included more noticeable tactical discussions as seen here…
and here…
On the newsworthy side, Elli Pikkujämsä will be out as well as long-term absentees Kgatlana, Ekic, Nadim, and Bloomer. Jess McDonald was granted leave to attend the Grand Final in Australia, so she is out as well. This will likely lead to a new look front line and potentially a new look back line with Lester and Murray now fully fit for 90 minutes. As of now, everyone else is available for selection.
The OL Reign are a difficult challenge with Coach Björkegren saying that they likely have a “Top 10 in the world” level roster. I don’t disagree, but for all of the mental fits that Portland seems to pose for Louisville, they know they can hang with the Reign. I think Louisville will be poised to come out quickly against the Reign but will have to be more cautious than they were in Portland. The Reign like to press, and Louisville hasn’t been great against it this season, so it might be prudent to cede a little possession early if they can keep their shape. However, prudence doesn’t seem to be in the club vernacular when it comes to style, so maybe don’t hold your breath.
Alternatively, the prudent move for Jordan Baggett may indicate that at least from a roster perspective that the club is finding practical solutions to problems. Louisville were able to acquire her from the Washington Spirit for a second-round pick in 2024 and a conditional third-round pick in 2025. I am all for trading away picks as I personally don’t see much value in anything beyond a first-round pick. Save your breath on the number of later rounds “hits” as the number of “misses” is much, much higher. You are better off working a trade for a known commodity like Louisville did here. It will be the last one for a while as the transfer window is closed, but look for additional activity in the Summer window.
Baggett after practice
Back to Baggett, Björkegren sees her as more of a holding midfielder that can play a little further forward. You may see her regularly used when Louisville has a late lead in matches and when pragmatism is warranted. The team practiced with some different forward combos up front to accommodate the absence of Jess McDonald. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Björkegren did a full hockey-style line change late if things aren’t working or if fresh legs are needed.
One final note: since Katie Lund was the player made available for interview today, I asked her about her proclivity for double saves. Instead of seeing it as a positive, she saw it as an indication of not doing well enough on the first ball. It’s something she is working on, so look for her to try to get that first save into a better position as to avoid the constant highlight reel efforts.
Portland 2 Louisville 0 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Before I get started here, I want to state that I feel like I watched a different match than some other Louisville fans did last night. I thought it was a below average performance on first appraisal and I stand by that. I will outline why below, but that was just my takeaway. There are going to be perfectly valid opinions that have a rosier viewpoints on last night’s performance, and I am 100% comfortable with that. No two sets of eyes are going to see the same thing. I probably gave the collectively lowest player ratings ever for a match. There were 5s across the board except for Lund and Davis. I saw comments online about Holloway’s performance being her best. That may very well be the case, but my player ratings this year are not going to give 6s and 7s and 8s when the team loses by 2 goals (on 3 balls in the back of the net). If you want those type of ratings, Fotmob will give you an unbiased statistical rating for each player. I will make my case below, but as always feel free to disagree.
Portland forced the bad performance. This wasn’t Louisville coming out and laying an egg. The Thorns set a pretty clever trap for Louisville and the team immediately fell for it. I feel like this team’s style of play could be talked about ad nauseam, so I won’t do so here other than to say that Louisville made it easy for Portland to counterattack, which is something they love to do. The threat of relegation forces pragmatic performances sometimes, so since there is no such possibility for Louisville I don’t every think you’ll see them go with a plan to change their formation based on their opponent. I was on a Twitter Live pregame show with Stumptown Footy. On that show I said that if I were coaching, I would have an extra natural defender on the pitch to prepare for Portland’s offensive talent. The formation wouldn’t matter so much, but I think you needed one more player consistently sitting deep for Louisville. I also conceded that there was zero percent chance of this happening. Louisville was immediately exposed on the first counter of the match with not enough help back to defend. Pikkujämsä unfortunately went down on that play, but she was always behind the action. On the second goal, the back line again was not settled due to a bad giveaway from Wang and Portland easily cut through them.
More troubling for me, was the goal that was correctly ruled out. The back line was a mess on that one, especially with Milliet and Holloway getting beat on their side. I will be honest with you. The 5s that I gave the back line were greatly influenced by that particular sequence. It ended up not mattering on the scoreline, but the handball had nothing to do with how poor the backline looked during that sequence. It was part of the performance whether or not the goal counted. I will also be upfront here in saying that when that goal went in, I started writing my player ratings. If anything in the last quarter of the match would have changed the scoreline I would have reconsidered my ratings, but it didn’t so I didn’t
Let’s talk about the scoreline. I say this over and over again. The scoreline dictates the play. In mind my you can throw all of the statistics out of the window for this match. I expect that other people discussing this match will point to the numbers and show some positive trends. Louisville basically played the entire match behind and your opponent is always more likely to concede possession to you when they have the lead. Portland had immediate joy in the counterattack, so why change that with a lead. The stats will show a significant advantage for Louisville in first half possession. I don’t think that matters much in this situation. Portland was happy for Louisville to have the ball and Louisville didn’t do much with it.
Now on to things that you won’t see in the stat sheet. To my eyes and possibly my eyes only, Portland killed Louisville in the spacing matchup. This is a hard thing to find numbers to support, so let me try to describe for you what I saw. When Portland had the ball in its attacking third, they were direct and calm in their passes with the movement from the players off the ball creating multiple options for the player with the ball to choose the best pass. They never looked rushed or disjointed in the buildup. It was frankly beautiful to watch. It looked like what it was: a team that had long played together and knew where each other would be. This more than anything else is what forced the below average performance from Louisville in my opinion. Louisville on the other hand was sometimes too slow and sometimes too fast. More than once Howell went backwards with a safe pass when she was under virtually no pressure. That drives me absolutely crazy. I don’t lay all of the blame on her because one of the other things I saw was when Louisville was going forward, they would play a long ball early due to the lack of any other forward option. Portland runs like a machine. Louisville starts and stops. In my opinion, this is mainly facilitated by the runs that Portland makes and spacing that they consitently maintain. Louisville couldn’t make effective runs or get good spacing against them. Full credit to Portland on this.
To the people that disagree with my assessment above, while conceding that you may have seen something different in the match, I will say that I am not going to give 7s in the player ratings when the team was so outplayed, when the match was in doubt. Anything that happened after the 70th minute after Portland throttled down into 2nd gear isn’t really of consequence to me. Holloway may have had her best match. I still think Lester is a better option, and I am still fine with giving her a 5 because the rest of the back line got a 5. I will not be giving this particular team 6s and 7s when they concede 3 goals (even if only two counted). They are better than that and I won’t patronize them by treating them like they aren’t. It was a bad performance in my opinion. I will state once again that it was a bad performance forced by Portland, but a bad performance nonetheless.
Portland 2 Louisville 0 Player Ratings
The story was one team making deliberately simple passes to score and the other making speculative passes and giving the ball away.
Lund-6: Had another good double save. Could do nothing on the goals.
Pickett-5: Wasn't her normal self in her delivery. Picked up a late card to stop a Portland counter.
Erceg-5: Put in bad spots on both goals.
Holloway-5: All over the place in her defending. Lester surely is the better option here.
Milliet-5: Not involved defensively in the goals due to the team being out of formation. Both she and Holloway are lucky the 3rd goal was ruled out.
Howell-5: (The Fotmob numbers are going to lie on these next 3 players. I downgraded the unit by 2 points because they were so clearly outplayed by Portland, especially in the first 60 minutes.) She had a decent headed shot on target, but was oddly negative in some of the build up play, passing the ball backwards when a forward pass wasn't risky.
Borges-5: For the first time, looked a bit overmatched. Still got off some good chances late.
DeMelo-5: Put in what normally would be a 7, but has to connect with her teammates better.
Wang-5: Looked off the pace. Gave the ball away in a bad spot for the 2nd goal.
Davis-6. Needed better service and not the overly hopeful passes that were played into her.
McDonald-5: Didn't contribute much in her 58 minutes.
Portland v Louisville Preview
Courtesy USA Today Sports
Louisville has never taken a point off of Portland. Until they do so, it’s hard for me to believe that the next match will be any different. When a student starts to learn basic statistics, they may be presented with a problem that starts like “If it rains today, the chances of rain tomorrow is 70%…” It’s a really basic way to look at prediction, but it stuck with me. The rest of the problem usually asks the student (also given the chance of rain if it is not raining today) to predict the probability that it will be raining the day after tomorrow. Louisville very likely will get points off of Portland one day, but I just can’t imagine it happening until they do so. It rained every other time. It will probably rain tomorrow.
In the fandom, there is a definite hangover from the draw in Angel City. However, I don’t expect this match to be anything like that match. Portland will not lay an egg for an entire half. Louisville’s best shot is probably to snatch points in the waning minutes. No multiple goal lead is safe from Portland and any multiple goal lead by Portland is virtually insurmountable.
Björkegren stated that just about everything that could go wrong, did go wrong when it came to squad selection last week. He did concede that he would have likely handled subs differently if he had a full, healthy bench for the match against Angel City. The good news is that Borges, Lester, and Murray have recovered from the issues impacting them. Kanu may be on the bench, but won’t start. Wang is back with the team, so I guess we’ll see what the availability report says about that tomorrow.
One of these days we may get to see a back line of Pickett/Erceg/Pikkujämsä/Milliet, but every time I think so, it doesn’t happen. No matter how much Louisville will want to impose themselves, it’s hard to picture them spending loads of time in their attacking third. I don’t think it’s in anyone’s nature at the club to want to sit deep but if any match calls for a back 5 it’s this one. One option could be Lester at right back and Milliet on the right wing to give you a back 4 with the ball and a back 5 without. That’s probably a little too out there, but I don’t think you have anything to lose.
Angel City 2 Louisville 2 Post Match Thoughts
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Last night was a classic instance of a draw feeling like a loss with 3 points looking likely after a good first half. The question now becomes: “Is this team designed to play 90 minutes?”
First and foremost you have to give Louisville a huge amount of credit for taking the game to Angel City in the first half. Angel City looked overmatched and confused in the first 35 minutes for sure. Louisville's pressing, especially from Davis, seemed to overwhelm them at times. DeMelo won and took her penalty well, and Davis's goal was a textbook example of the type of situations you want to create from pressing. The first 40 minutes from Louisville was probably the best ever sustained performance from them over a large section of a match.
However, scorelines dictate play (and officiating). If you are going to press your way into a lead, you have to either press your way into keeping and building on it, or figure out how to let the air out of the ball. Louisville did neither of those. After the match, Björkegren said that pressing for 90 minutes with the player’s he had available last night was pretty much impossible. I would tend to agree with that sentiment, but also wonder if it's even possible with a full and healthy squad. I am big believer in having a plan B. If Louisville had a plan in the second half, it escaped my vision. The team definitely sat back, but you have to have a plan to do so effectively. While it didn't look pretty, Louisville's defensive effort in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half was effective.
Then Alyssa Thompson came on and changed the match. She attacked almost exclusively from the left and really gave Milliet fits. Lo had an excellent game until Thompson came one, but she couldn't keep up with the speedy substitute. In my mind the key moment of the match occurred when Thompson won the foul which resulted in Angel City's free kick goal. It's an easy thing to say in retrospect, but Milliet probably should have made more of the contact. Footballers are often lamented for acting like the slightest bit of contact is reason to act like you’ve been gravely injured. I blame the officials for this as much as the players. Thompson clearly initiated the contact that led to the foul being called on Milliet, but officials are always likely to let that type of contact go unless you force them to make a call. That's why you see players drop to the ground and immediately handle the ball, thus forcing the official to make the call. A more experienced right back might do so in that situation, but then again they might not. Lo is one of the nicest people you will ever meet and so are her teammates. In this case, a little more cynical player probably wins that foul on Thompson's initial contact.
Savannah McCaskill is a roller coaster ride of a player. In the first half she over dribbled, took wildly speculative shots, and had way too much of the ball making it hard for her teammates to get involved. In the second half she was much better in her vision and distribution. Then she completely wrong footed Monaghan for her excellent goal. At this point in her career, she is who she is. You can win matches with her, but it may be a bumpy ride along the way. She is still one of my favorites regardless.
Winning is something you do collectively, and Louisville still hasn't figured out the formula. It's great to press yourself into a 2 goal lead, but what if the same amount of pressing and effort leaves you on the wrong side of the scoreline? The biggest issue is that the team just never looked composed with the lead. Killing off a match with a lead is a skill and it's one that most teams never learn. I never felt like Louisville was going to score again after half. I don't have the answers and if I did I would be coaching and not writing this. My intuition tells me that you have to keep the opposition pinned to the middle third of the pitch with a lead, but that's easier said than done. What you can't do is let your opponents live in the final third, which is basically what happened here.
Angel City 2 Louisville 2 Player Ratings
One great half and one not so great half was the story as McCaskill scores against Louisville again.
Lund-6: Made one great save but seemed to be screened off the ball by Pickett on McCaskill goal.
Pickett-7: Solid as usual.
Erceg-6: Not her best game, but still a good showing for the most part.
Holloway-6: Played well in what surely was another surprise start for her.
Milliet-6: Played well until Thompson came on and then struggled a bit with her pace.
Pikkujämsä-6: Looked slightly off her game, but still put in a good shift.
Howell-7: Starred slow but picked it up as the game went along which included a nice tackle that started the move for Davis's goal.
DeMelo-9: Won a penalty, scored a penalty, and got an assist. A performance deserving of a better result.
McDonald-6: Put in a good pressing effort in the first half.
Fischer-7: Did decently in her full debut, and seemed to adapt to the physicality of the league as the match went on.
Davis-8: Was a real nuisance in the first half and made Angel City look weak on their back line. Had an excellent goal.
Angel City - Louisville Preview
Courtesy USA Today Sports Images
While this Louisville team so far has proven on multiple fronts that they are a much-improved squad they have yet to show what they can do when playing with a lead.
Having played 180 minutes either level or trailing isn’t exactly cause for concern (yet), but it hasn’t let me evaluate one of my lingering concerns from last year which was holding onto a lead. In the 2022 season only Washington was worse than Louisville at getting points after they scored first. The Spirit averaged a dreadful 1.6 points when scoring first and Louisville only managed to be slightly better at 1.7 points (league average being 2.2). It seems painfully obvious that scoring first greatly increases your chances of winning, but that doesn't make it any less important. Scoring first last year gave that team a 65% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and only a 10% chance of losing.
Funnily enough, this week’s Angel City v Louisville matchup in LA was one of those 10% matches last year, and so was the reverse fixture in Louisville. I don’t expect the same thing to happen a third time in a row, but you never know. I asked Paige Monaghan about the importance of getting on the front foot to manage the crowd in LA. She responded that the plan was to (like always) “press and be aggressive” and “we’re going to take it to them.” Similarly I asked Coach Björkegren if the win in LA late last season would be helpful for this season’s match. He responded, “Every time when you win that type of game it helps you.”
One of the noticeable things at practice on Thursday was that both Ekic and Nadim were on the pitch although practicing by themselves. Ekic looks closer to returning to action than Nadim. Kgatlana was a “full” participant in practice, but don’t get your hopes up yet, because there was not a full scrimmage since not all of the players had arrived back from international break. Kgatlana is probably still a month away.
With the delayed return of some players, it is possible that there could be a little rotation. I expect Lester to make the trip and be on the bench, but you have to imagine that the back half of the outfield players for Angel City will be Pickett, Erceg, Pikkujämsä, Milliet and Howell. Those five should remain steady for the foreseeable future unless injury forces a change.
Louisville 2 Washington 2 Post Match Thoughts
Falling behind two goals inside 35 minutes wasn't the start that Louisville wanted, but a change in mentality and belief compared to last season meant that it wasn't a hill too steep to climb.
However, you’ll recall that Louisville did get a 2-2 draw on the road against Washinton last season. The big difference here is that Washington thoroughly outplayed Louisville in the first half of that match and Louisville were frankly lucky not to be down more than two goals at half. They also rescued a point late on a Nadim brace with the second goal coming in the 89th minute. That draw felt like a win, where this one probably really felt like and deserved to be a draw. Louisville had 25 minutes to try to get the full 3 points and had the better of the chances. Coach Björkegren will take the draw, but still probably wonder if on a better weather day if the full 3 points were there for the taking.
I asked both Björkegren and Erceg after the match how much the wind really played into things and they both agreed that it was the main factor in the match. I also asked Coach Kim if there is even any value in looking at game film from a match like this. He said that there are some things that he can still take away, but I think you probably just need to toss the game film away from a tactical perspective.
Elli Pikkujämsä had a terrific match in a climate much more like her home in Finland that the environment she faced last week in Houston. She had the chance to drop back into the back four when Howell made a late cameo, but she really showed something in midfield on the day. The first half run where she was physically dribbled though some pretty rough contact to come away still in possession was a highlight of the match. It will almost be a shame when she takes up her natural position in the middle of the back line, but Louisville lucky to have Howell to take over that spot.
Ary Borges scored a terrific goal, but even without it was probably still the player of the match. She led the team in touches along with Erceg, and made some really good turns with the ball. I was always going to reserve judgement on her until I saw her in action. Many fans were excited about her on reputation only, and it looks like that reputation is well deserved.
Erceg scored on her home debut for Louisville with a very assured header on an excellent ball taken from the corner by Wang. If Louisville are to make a run at the playoffs, I feel like it will be on her back. She brings so much experience and poise that it is almost impossible to overestimate her value to this young team.
Louisville 2 Washington 2 Player Ratings
The wind was the big story on the day with all four goals being scored at the open end. It’s hard to take too much away from a game like this from a team perspective, but there were some really good individual performances.
Lund-6: Couldn’t do much on the goals, but was excellent when she had a chance to make saves.
Pickett-7: The wind hampered her offensive game a bit but she was still good defensively for the most part.
Erceg-8: On a different day she makes the headed clearance on the first Spirit goal, but definitely made up for it on her fine header from Wang.
Holloway-6: Did decently deputizing at center back but will now probably find herself back on the bench for the foreseeable future, barring injury to another defender. If Louisville makes the playoffs spots by a point or two her contributions will have been extremely valuable.
Milliet-7: Maybe had her best defensive game ever at right back. Played a really smart game.
Pikkujämsä-8: Showed during an excellent first half passage where she out muscled several Spirit players that she is physically ready for this league.
Borges-8: Scored an excellent goal and won player of the match in the fan vote. I concur.
DeMelo-7: Drew a ton of fouls but might be better off in the long run trying to avoid so much contact.
McDonald-6: Had a good defensive performance, but didn’t get enough touches in the offensive half.
Kanu-6: Had to be subbed off early due to a head injury. After a few more games under her belt I expect her to be even more of a nuisance to opposing keepers.
Wang-8: Couldn’t have walked out and placed the ball any better than she did on the corner leading to Erceg’s goal.
Davis-7: Looks demonstrably stronger than last year. I hope she gets a look in for the Starting XI at some point.
Louisville v Washington Preview
The team practiced at Lynn Family stadium on Thursday morning, and while most of the media focus for the day was on the newly hired GM Ryan Dell, the players prepared for a crucial match against the Washington Spirit. Although the team is coming off of an uneven but ultimately pretty satisfactory performance in my opinion against Houston, Louisville looked like a much-improved team over the previous two iterations. It is now critical that the performances start bringing in 3 points.
I believe that Louisville is still missing a few critical pieces that will eventually be in the Starting XI. There was mostly good news on that front on Thursday. Thembi Kgatlana was a participant in practice, at least for the drills but did avoid any potential contact as she sat out the scrimmage portion of the practice. The same went for Jae Howell, who at last week’s open media practice was held out of all drills. Howell I’m told is scheduled for an additional fitness test prior to the match on Saturday, so she still has a chance to play. I expected her to still be listed as questionable on the availability report, with Kgatlana still listed as out.
As for the players who will surely be playing, Coach Björkegren singled out Savanna DeMelo as a player who looked better after reviewing last week’s game film. I am not really surprised by this as last year everybody got so used to her being the major engine in driving the team forward, that the match in Houston could have been seen as a letdown. On the contrary, I thought her (and let’s be really frank here) greatly improved teammates made her job much easier in the opener. She still got fouled more than was called, which is an increasingly troublesome trend. On the most recent episode of BTRD, Tom lamented that Pickett’s addition to the team meant that Sav wasn’t taking as many free kicks. I want to reserve judgement on that as I don’t recall any particular free kicks that Carson took being particularly set up for a DeMelo shot on goal. Pickett was really good last Sunday and hopefully this is the match where one of those crosses or corners finds a teammate’s head or boot (or thigh or knee or anything legal really).
Washington is dangerous and coming off a win. I am convinced that they are more like the champions of 2021 and not the 11th placed-team of 2022 (how in the world did they finish behind Orlando?). Coach Björkegren said of the Spirit that he expects their attack in this match to be more varied as they were very direct against the OL Reign. We no longer get the Rodman-Fox matchup, but the Rodman-Pickett matchup is just as compelling. Last year’s matches featured Fotmob Player-of-the-Match awards for each of them in their head-to-head matchups with Rodman getting it in the 3-3 draw in Cary and Pickett getting it in the 2-3 victory for the Courage in Washington. Pickett’s award also came with an assist to Erceg, so maybe we can hope for more of the same.